Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

They will be roasted this time.  Absolutely eviscerated.  This would represent the straw that broke the camel's back regarding scientific predictions affecting people.  There will probably be a bit of a barney between the scientific advisors and the governments as well.  

 

This will play out quickly.  The predictions involve it happening quickly.  No hiding place for anyone who's either culpable for dodgy warnings and no hiding place for anyone in denial of what may occur.  

You have more faith in these people than I do. I've worked with modellers in my own work designing systems and these guys are devoid of awareness, almost autistic like in their focus purely on numbers and formula. Great when things don't change but they often fail to see things that fall outwith their narrow experiences.

[Dagger Is Back]

13 hours ago, Dagger Is Back said:

Am I reading this correctly? You’re a moron and a half wit if you follow restriction orders?

 

Who should be strung up exactly?

@JamesM48

 

[Alex Kintner]

Genuine question for those with a better understanding than me:

 

If Omicron has an R rate of 2-3 and cases doubling every 2 days then why is there only one new case of Omicron today? Does it take a couple of days for the data to be known?

 

cheers 👍🏻

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

You have more faith in these people than I do. I've worked with modellers in my own work designing systems and these guys are devoid of awareness, almost autistic like in their focus purely on numbers and formula. Great when things don't change but they often fail to see things that fall outwith their narrow experiences.

 

Well this time their baws are held to the fire.  Even Linda Bauld's.

 

No hiding place for anyone making predictions.  No hiding place for denials of certainty.

Edited December 10, 2021 by Victorian

[Alex Kintner]

3 minutes ago, theshed said:

God help us when the first person dies from omicron as will be breaking news and be main headline 

 

Meanwhile probably over 100 people will die of cancer the same day 

The concern doesn’t seem to be about the risk to life of Omicron, it’s the incredibly

high transmissibility causing chaos in the supply chains and with key workers. Those workers have less chance of dying or being seriously ill but will be off their work for ten days if they catch it.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Alex Kintner said:

Genuine question for those with a better understanding than me:

 

If Omicron has an R rate of 2-3 and cases doubling every 2 days then why is there only one new case of Omicron today? Does it take a couple of days for the data to be known?

 

cheers 👍🏻

 

Confirmed case.  PCR tests can predict with virtual certainty many more omicron cases.  S gene dropout signal.

[The Mighty Thor]

Just now, Alex Kintner said:

Genuine question for those with a better understanding than me:

 

If Omicron has an R rate of 2-3 and cases doubling every 2 days then why is there only one new case of Omicron today? Does it take a couple of days for the data to be known?

 

cheers 👍🏻

I know of two positives today, however no idea whether Omigod or not. 

Between colleagues, friends and family members there's about a dozen cases this week alone.

 

[Spellczech]

24 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

If it turns out modellers are wrong, they won't face consequences. They will simply come up with excuse.

Ferguson has been consistently wrong, but is still carrying on regardless.

Amazing that anyone is still listening to him. How wrong do you have to be to become discredited as an expert?

[manaliveits105]

2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Chattering classes of Morningside clearly don't put much faith in the Puritanical doomsayer... Restaurants and bars we were in this evening looking busy and bustling  

Good news 

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Aye, if they bother their arses getting tested for something that seems to be akin to the common cold.

 

Soothsayer Jonesy has his eyes open because this will happen.  If the worst numbers occur,  either by hook or by crook,  positive cases will stop isolating.  Coming soon.

[JudyJudyJudy]

3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Aye, if they bother their arses getting tested for something that seems to be akin to the common cold.

See that’s the issue I have with it . It’s it meant to be so mild it won’t affect hospitals at all . So what’s the big deal? 

[JudyJudyJudy]

5 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Chattering classes of Morningside clearly don't put much faith in the Puritanical doomsayer... Restaurants and bars we were in this evening looking busy and bustling  

👍👍👍

[Spellczech]

1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

See that’s the issue I have with it . It’s it meant to be so mild it won’t affect hospitals at all . So what’s the big deal? 

You are failing to consider that many Brits do like a sickie - 10 days self-certified?

[Alex Kintner]

7 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Confirmed case.  PCR tests can predict with virtual certainty many more omicron cases.  S gene dropout signal.

Cheers Vic

 

6 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Aye, if they bother their arses getting tested for something that seems to be akin to the common cold.

Suppose we’ll just have to wait and see. Fingers crossed it does turn out to be just that mild for those of us brainwashed into the conformity of being fully vaxxed. 👍🏻

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 minute ago, Spellczech said:

You are failing to consider that many Brits do like a sickie - 10 days self-certified?

Very true ! I know a couple of people who have been at the con regarding that . 

[Herbert.]

1 minute ago, Spellczech said:

You are failing to consider that many Brits do like a sickie - 10 days self-certified?

 

 

10days unpaid going up to Xmas and my birthday. No one will want to be sick. If this were the summer then it would be a different story.

[Victorian]

Just now, jonesy said:

I've been called worse by you on this thread. I'm printing and framing that...

 

Morningside chatterer.

[Alex Kintner]

5 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

See that’s the issue I have with it . It’s it meant to be so mild it won’t affect hospitals at all . So what’s the big deal? 

Because if you work in a hospital or care home and you catch it, you’ll choose to self isolate rather than risk passing it on to the vulnerable patients and residents. Lots of staff off isolating means a pretty big impact.

[Spellczech]

1 minute ago, Herbert said:

 

 

10days unpaid going up to Xmas and my birthday. No one will want to be sick. If this were the summer then it would be a different story.

A lot of places won't be unpaid though...

[JudyJudyJudy]

Just now, Alex Kintner said:

Because if you work in a hospital or care home and you catch it, you’ll choose to self isolate rather than risk passing it on to the vulnerable patients and residents. Lots of staff off isolating means a pretty big impact.

But if it’s that mild even the vulnerable and elderly might be ok anyway ? 

[Alex Kintner]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Fully vaxxed and vexed here anaw, Al de la K. Gagging on my booster (39 y.o.) so I can proceed with my trip to Malta next month without a care in the world.

Had mine yesterday and have felt rotten most of day. On the mend now though thankfully 👍🏻

[Alex Kintner]

Just now, JamesM48 said:

But if it’s that mild even the vulnerable and elderly might be ok anyway ? 

I’ve not seen anything yet about how it affects the elderly or those with underlying conditions yet so not sure? 🤷🏻‍♂️

[theshed]

11 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Aye, if they bother their arses getting tested for something that seems to be akin to the common cold.

People who don’t get paid won’t go for a test as need to work but people who get paid will be getting tested every day to get time off work 

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 minute ago, Alex Kintner said:

Had mine yesterday and have felt rotten most of day. On the mend now though thankfully 👍🏻

I had mine yesterday and feeling fine apart from hangover . 

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 minute ago, Alex Kintner said:

I’ve not seen anything yet about how it affects the elderly or those with underlying conditions yet so not sure? 🤷🏻‍♂️

👍

[Victorian]

Just now, Spellczech said:

A lot of places won't be unpaid though...

 

There's a wide range.  Many will have to isolate.  NHS and social care for example.  Many will get sick pay and continue to isolate.  Many wont get sick pay.  Inevitably more and more wont go for tests.  There's a very large number of self employed people who would rather prefer to get on with it without testing or isolation.  This will absolutely move in this direction.

[Alex Kintner]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Good to hear. Maybe it wasn't the booster but your conscience kicking in? 😜 

Nah, me and my Jimminy are long time pals.

[Der Kaiser]

My school has not had a good time these last two weeks with Covid. Lots of positive tests in both staff and pupils. I'm currently isolating and awaiting the result of my 2nd PCR test in 7 days. 

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

That's going in a smaller font.

 

Restaurant voyeur.

[Malinga the Swinga]

17 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I know of two positives today, however no idea whether Omigod or not. 

Between colleagues, friends and family members there's about a dozen cases this week alone.

 

You must be unlucky. Between my family, colleagues (Christmas lunch today), no cases at all. Not a single one.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

There's a wide range.  Many will have to isolate.  NHS and social care for example.  Many will get sick pay and continue to isolate.  Many wont get sick pay.  Inevitably more and more wont go for tests.  There's a very large number of self employed people who would rather prefer to get on with it without testing or isolation.  This will absolutely move in this direction.

You seem to be still putting in the research - genuine question (admittedly borne slightly of laziness) why is this new variant more transmissible or in real terms why will it transmit more - does social distancing still work or do you need to be 3 metres away now or does it still require “close contact” but the strike rate is higher?

 

also these mammoth potential tsunami-type predictions is there any comment on a potential upper bound where the cases would naturally start to tail off due to physical / real life blockers to it continuing to infect at an exponential rate ?

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

31 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

You have more faith in these people than I do. I've worked with modellers in my own work designing systems and these guys are devoid of awareness, almost autistic like in their focus purely on numbers and formula. Great when things don't change but they often fail to see things that fall outwith their narrow experiences.

they maybe would see it as a similar failing (to understand) on your part ?
 

maybe both parties partially right/wrong ?

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 minute ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

they maybe would see it as a similar failing (to understand) on your part ?
 

maybe both parties partially right/wrong ?

Maybe, but number crunchers and modellers belong firmly in geeky corner, away from real world.

Me misunderstand/fail. How very dare you🙂. 

[Ainsley Harriott]

So it seems Adolf could spread fear via the Jews and oor Nicola has the Tories and Covid. Winner winner for the nationalists

[Alex Kintner]

2 minutes ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

So it seems Adolf could spread fear via the Jews and oor Nicola has the Tories and Covid. Winner winner for the nationalists

 

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

You seem to be still putting in the research - genuine question (admittedly borne slightly of laziness) why is this new variant more transmissible or in real terms why will it transmit more - does social distancing still work or do you need to be 3 metres away now or does it still require “close contact” but the strike rate is higher?

 

also these mammoth potential tsunami-type predictions is there any comment on a potential upper bound where the cases would naturally start to tail off due to physical / real life blockers to it continuing to infect at an exponential rate ?

 

It's shown to escape immunity in terms of infection so the epidemiology isn't as suppressed as it was before it came along.  They also say it is a bit more transmissible.  It very quickly clobbered Delta out of the epidemiology in South Africa but they had a much lower baseline Delta rate than we do.  It hasn't been clear whether or not it will out-compete Delta here but now that appears to be the prediction.  In terms of infection transmission alone,  the thinking is that it's quite a big leap back to the beginning in terms of a virus operating in an immunity naive population.  

 

Good second question.  The transmissibility + doubling rate suggests huge numbers and quickly.  If people did all isolate as normal,  naturally there should be a very quick peak and then the beginning of a slowing down.  It will very quickly run out of large numbers of people to continue exponential growth.  A big question remains about residual Delta continuing to co-exist with Omicron though.

 

The prediction is very big numbers in a few weeks.  If the numbers don't show then there will be questions raised.

[Ainsley Harriott]

Just now, Alex Kintner said:

 

You never got back to me with those numbers that show improvement to our education system under the SNP. Funny that

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

5 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Maybe, but number crunchers and modellers belong firmly in geeky corner, away from real world.

Me misunderstand/fail. How very dare you🙂. 

 

was only joking mate - I’ve been in similar situations and the fact is it’s always the other party’s fault

 

100%

 

 

[Alex Kintner]

1 minute ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

You never got back to me with those numbers that show improvement to our education system under the SNP. Funny that

Have a check back and you’ll see I did 👍🏻

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

It's shown to escape immunity in terms of infection so the epidemiology isn't as suppressed as it was before it came along.  They also say it is a bit more transmissible.  It very quickly clobbered Delta out of the epidemiology in South Africa but they had a much lower baseline Delta rate than we do.  It hasn't been clear whether or not it will out-compete Delta here but now that appears to be the prediction.  In terms of infection transmission alone,  the thinking is that it's quite a big leap back to the beginning in terms of a virus operating in an immunity naive population.  

 

Good second question.  The transmissibility + doubling rate suggests huge numbers and quickly.  If people did all isolate as normal,  naturally there should be a very quick peak and then the beginning of a slowing down.  It will very quickly run out of large numbers of people to continue exponential growth.  A big question remains about residual Delta continuing to co-exist with Omicron though.

 

The prediction is very big numbers in a few weeks.  If the numbers don't show then there will be questions raised.

 

cheers - we don’t always agree but at least there’s an attempt to put together a logic on both sides hopefully - if someone still chooses to social distance by staying 2 metres away from others (within reason) are they as ‘safe’ as before (within reason) or are these droplets (or whatever they are) more potent over a longer distance do they know?

[Ainsley Harriott]

4 minutes ago, Alex Kintner said:

Have a check back and you’ll see I did 👍🏻

When you said off the top of my head? Na you definitely didn't. 

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

cheers - we don’t always agree but at least there’s an attempt to put together a logic on both sides hopefully - if someone still chooses to social distance by staying 2 metres away from others (within reason) are they as ‘safe’ as before (within reason) or are these droplets (or whatever they are) more potent over a longer distance do they know?

 

I don't think there's been any info on that at all.  It could well be that those considerations haven't been high on the agenda due to much more urgent concerns.  There's currently very little omicron in the community to do those studies.

[Savage Vince]

19 minutes ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

So it seems Adolf could spread fear via the Jews and oor Nicola has the Tories and Covid. Winner winner for the nationalists

 

The nick of this. 

[Japan Jambo]

6 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Keep calm, carry on and stop stop shitting your pants every time a new strain appears. WHO announce zero deaths from the Xi variant (to give it it's correct title) and mild symptoms. Would everyone with a seasonal head cold also self isolate in your world because colds transmit pretty easily? 

 

Japanese wear masks when they have colds to protect others... very normal, much respected.

[Footballfirst]

3 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Another one Omicron case detected in Scotland today.

Is Sturgeon getting her modelling advice from the Scottish Neil Ferguson 

 

Don't forget to add the note that went with today's Omicron figures, as there was yesterday too

 

"There are a relatively lower number of confirmed cases again today due to a move from interim reports to routine reports via the Cloud Infrastructure for Microbial Bioinformatics (CLIMB) pipeline, which are lagged by approximately 2 days. This lag is due to additional quality control and processing. More info on CLIMB at https://www.climb.ac.uk/"

 

We may not get reliable figures until the middle of next week as the PHS dashboard is reverting to 5 day reporting as of today. 

 

In other figures published today, the proportion of PCR tests showing the "S gene drop out" which is indicative of the Omicron variant was 15.5% ( 737 of 4743). It is reasonable to assume that the same percentage of positive cases reported today were Omicron, hence the expectation that Omicron will become more dominant than Delta within days and will end up with close to 100% of cases within a week or two.  It will only be then that we will have a good idea of case numbers to hospitalisation rates.

[FWJ]

The question really is - has this thread reached peak Godwin?

[Japan Jambo]

38 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

It's shown to escape immunity in terms of infection so the epidemiology isn't as suppressed as it was before it came along.  They also say it is a bit more transmissible.  It very quickly clobbered Delta out of the epidemiology in South Africa but they had a much lower baseline Delta rate than we do.  It hasn't been clear whether or not it will out-compete Delta here but now that appears to be the prediction.  In terms of infection transmission alone,  the thinking is that it's quite a big leap back to the beginning in terms of a virus operating in an immunity naive population.  

 

Good second question.  The transmissibility + doubling rate suggests huge numbers and quickly.  If people did all isolate as normal,  naturally there should be a very quick peak and then the beginning of a slowing down.  It will very quickly run out of large numbers of people to continue exponential growth.  A big question remains about residual Delta continuing to co-exist with Omicron though.

 

The prediction is very big numbers in a few weeks.  If the numbers don't show then there will be questions raised.

 

you may want a deek at the London numbers, heard earlier a third of all London cases are already Omicron... (haven't looked myself)

[Savage Vince]

8 minutes ago, FWJ said:

The question really is - has this thread reached peak Godwin?

 

😁

[Seymour M Hersh]

20 minutes ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

Japanese wear masks when they have colds to protect others... very normal, much respected.

 

Not really self isolating though is it? 

[Herbert.]

20 minutes ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

Japanese wear masks when they have colds to protect others... very normal, much respected.

 

 

Don't they cut about in masks because of pollution anyway?