Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Victorian]

17 minutes ago, jonesy said:

What kind of reaction do you want to see, Vic? What do you want people to be doing, thinking and saying in light of your hypothesis?

 

Nothing.  We don't know what the variables will combine together to bring about whatever lies ahead.  Even the experts seem to be in the dark.  Mine is just a layman's guess,  like everyone else.  

 

But just as it always is,  the apparent forecasts for hospitalisations will be the overwhelming driver of strategy/policy/reactionary measures.  Because a really,  really small percentage of a really,  really big number over too short a timeline can still represent a problem.

[Dennis Denuto]

36 minutes ago, jonesy said:

No, no it won't. Stat monkeys on here have previously said that rolling seven day figures are the best barometer.

And the seven day stats for the UK are going up in cases, which usually brings a rise in the others soon enough. It’s not big spikes or anything to worry about anywhere yet. 
 

The situation we are in just now is all about what happens with Omicron and if that triggers more restrictions. We are a long way off needing anything changed yet though. 

[Malinga the Swinga]

2 hours ago, milky_26 said:

it did seem like he was trying to short the moderna stock. sort of like what elon musk did a few years ago to tesla that the USA fined him for

I know I should be able to work it out but why short your own stock? Would have thought he would want it higher, unless of course, he has options to come and price not settled yet.

[Footballfirst]

47 minutes ago, jonesy said:

No, no it won't. Stat monkeys on here have previously said that rolling seven day figures are the best barometer.

The 7 day average UK case numbers are up just 1% on a week ago, but 12.5% up on a month ago.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Footballfirst

[Nucky Thompson]

8 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

I know I should be able to work it out but why short your own stock? Would have thought he would want it higher, unless of course, he has options to come and price not settled yet.

He would sell the stock when it was high knowing he could short it and buy it back when it was lower

[Malinga the Swinga]

10 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

He would sell the stock when it was high knowing he could short it and buy it back when it was lower

Never underestimate these people, they'll have an army of accountants and hedge fund managers planning months ahead on these things.

The laws around shorting need to be tightened and restricted but no govt has stomach to do it.

[Victorian]

22 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

And the seven day stats for the UK are going up in cases, which usually brings a rise in the others soon enough. It’s not big spikes or anything to worry about anywhere yet. 
 

The situation we are in just now is all about what happens with Omicron and if that triggers more restrictions. We are a long way off needing anything changed yet though. 

 

 

One good thing is that most experts seem to agree that reactionary steps are no longer as critically time sensitive as they were.  When any factor of delayed action could be measured in consequential negative effects.  Most seem to be happy that,  due to various factors in our favour,  governments can wait to observe real world events instead of relying on forecasts.  

 

If we end up in any flavour of lockdown,  it'll be in reaction to something we can see happening.

[Dennis Denuto]

4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

 

One good thing is that most experts seem to agree that reactionary steps are no longer as critically time sensitive as they were.  When any factor of delayed action could be measured in consequential negative effects.  Most seem to be happy that,  due to various factors in our favour,  governments can wait to observe real world events instead of relying on forecasts.  

 

If we end up in any flavour of lockdown,  it'll be in reaction to something we can see happening.

That is why the added travel restrictions were needed, just to buy some time to see the real world data. 

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Dennis Denuto said:

That is why the added travel restrictions were needed, just to buy some time to see the real world data. 

 

I suppose it was a fairly sensible precaution in the very short term but it could be credibly argued that it really doesn't make any difference.  It soon became apparent that the variant was going to appear all over anyway,  plus the actual measures were a very long way short of what would be required to make a difference.  It was window dressing.  

[Fxxx the SPFL]

Apologies if mentioned but some Italian guy tried to avoid vaccination by wearing a false arm got caught obviously and police arrested him numpty 

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, JamesM48 said:

You are important . Your a Jambo 

👍

[The Real Maroonblood]

2 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

Apologies if mentioned but some Italian guy tried to avoid vaccination by wearing a false arm got caught obviously and police arrested him numpty 

That sounds like a Scottish sense of humour.

[JudyJudyJudy]

Bloody steps !!’ So it wasn’t 5,6,7,8 it’s definitely “ Black mirror “ territory now! H to the gallows 

 

 

https://www.gbnews.uk/news/covid-nicola-sturgeon-blames-steps-show-among-others-for-omicron-outbreak-in-scotland/171357?fbclid=IwAR0ymM2rZ2K01yB0JE_HzuX6zRKiGj3dsUPzfB8k_H4WD5AWBjJ4gmPIfww

[JudyJudyJudy]

Bloody steps !!’ So it wasn’t 5,6,7,8 it’s definitely “ Black mirror “ territory now! H to the gallows 

 

 

https://www.gbnews.uk/news/covid-nicola-sturgeon-blames-steps-show-among-others-for-omicron-outbreak-in-scotland/171357?fbclid=IwAR0ymM2rZ2K01yB0JE_HzuX6zRKiGj3dsUPzfB8k_H4WD5AWBjJ4gmPIfww

[JudyJudyJudy]

17 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

Apologies if mentioned but some Italian guy tried to avoid vaccination by wearing a false arm got caught obviously and police arrested him numpty 

I read about that lol 

[willie wallace]

My son and daughter in law in Johannesburg have both tested positive.

She had a baby last week and both him and  their 2yr old waiting for results.

Don't know for sure if it is the new variant but he only has mild symptoms and she doesn't have any.

[Alex Kintner]

2 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

UK positive cases down nearly 4k from yesterday with 200k more tests done

👍🏻 Good news

[theshed]

1 hour ago, JamesM48 said:

Bloody steps !!’ So it wasn’t 5,6,7,8 it’s definitely “ Black mirror “ territory now! H to the gallows 

 

 

https://www.gbnews.uk/news/covid-nicola-sturgeon-blames-steps-show-among-others-for-omicron-outbreak-in-scotland/171357?fbclid=IwAR0ymM2rZ2K01yB0JE_HzuX6zRKiGj3dsUPzfB8k_H4WD5AWBjJ4gmPIfww

 

Tragedy 

[JudyJudyJudy]

54 minutes ago, jonesy said:

I was at the Idlewild gig last Saturday at the Usher Hall. 

 

Fingers crossed it wasn't a super-spreader event. I'm staying optimistic: hope is important.

Yes having a positive outlook without burying ones head in the sand is always helpful for ones mental health and general outlook I feel.:) 😮

[JudyJudyJudy]

9 minutes ago, theshed said:

 

Tragedy 

 

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, willie wallace said:

My son and daughter in law in Johannesburg have both tested positive.

She had a baby last week and both him and  their 2yr old waiting for results.

Don't know for sure if it is the new variant but he only has mild symptoms and she doesn't have any.

I hope they get well soon.

Also congratulations on the new addition to the family.

[Seymour M Hersh]

37 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

 

 

Green Brigade? 

[Nucky Thompson]

3 minutes ago, jonnothejambo said:

 

Apparently the arm felt cold, rubbery and was the wrong skin tone.

 

No shit sherlock. What a welt.

Why would you be that scared of a wee jab, you would go to those extremes 

 

 

[Rocco_Jambo]

It's certainly not been a bad week for some.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10272221/Pfizer-Moderna-shareholders-pocket-7-5bn-week-Omicron-discovered.html

[Nucky Thompson]

3 minutes ago, Rocco_Jambo said:

It's certainly not been a bad week for some.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10272221/Pfizer-Moderna-shareholders-pocket-7-5bn-week-Omicron-discovered.html

623 million for the Moderna boss because he issued a couple of sentences dissing his own vaccine.

Greedy ******* should be arrested, but I know no laws have been broken.

It just gives the anti vaxxers ammunition 

[Alex Kintner]

Ireland closes nightclubs and indoor events to run at 50% capacity.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59517114

[theshed]

22 minutes ago, Alex Kintner said:

Ireland closes nightclubs and indoor events to run at 50% capacity.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59517114

Depressing stuff reading that

 

Merry Christmas over there 🥺 

[JudyJudyJudy]

10 minutes ago, theshed said:

Depressing stuff reading that

 

Merry Christmas over there 🥺 

They have been very risk

averse over there from the  very start . Manic really . 

Edited December 3, 2021 by JamesM48

[Ulysses]

8 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

I was saying that the other day. The chief of moderna coming out and saying the vaccines probably won't work against omicron and the markets take a nose dive.

Seems a wee bit fishy

 

It's definitely a bit off when you consider that the head of the European Medicines Agency (the agency which clears vaccines for use in the EU) has said she believes that this will not be an issue.

[Nucky Thompson]

42 minutes ago, Alex Kintner said:

Ireland closes nightclubs and indoor events to run at 50% capacity.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59517114

Absolutely uncalled for.

I thought governments would have learned their lessons by now

[Ulysses]

52 minutes ago, Alex Kintner said:

Ireland closes nightclubs and indoor events to run at 50% capacity.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59517114

 

We're running at 8 deaths per day with 528 in hospital and 110 in ICU, despite having almost the highest level of double vaccinations in the world.  We mostly have that because Irish people don't just socialise; we hang out of the rafters and each other while doing so.  And a more transmissible variant has just landed.  So the Government decided to introduce a few restrictions to coincide with the period when most of the population will get their third jab.  Despite the restrictions, I was in the pub for dinner this evening and I'll be in and out of the boozer a few times between now and Christmas, so it's not too bad.  It's a pain for clubbers, though.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Ulysses

[Nucky Thompson]

13 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

We're running at 8 deaths per day with 528 in hospital and 110 in ICU, despite having almost the highest level of double vaccinations in the world.  We mostly have that because Irish people don't just socialise; we hang out of the rafters and each other while doing so.  And a more transmissible variant has just landed.  So the Government decided to introduce a few restrictions to coincide with the period when most of the population will get their third jab.  Despite the restrictions, I was in the pub for dinner this evening and I'll be in and out of the boozer a few times between now and Christmas, so it's not too bad.  It's a pain for clubbers, though.

You've got less deaths, less in hospital, but more than double in ICU than Scotland

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, Nucky Thompson said:

You've got less deaths, less in hospital, but more than double in ICU than Scotland

 

Thanks for that - I used to see the daily numbers for Scotland when they were posted here, but I haven't seen them for a while, so I'd no idea what the comparison was like.  The ratios are also a bit weird when you consider that we'd have a lower percentage of the population than Scotland would have in older age groups

 

@JamesM48mentioned that we've been a bit more risk-averse here from the start.  I wouldn't say from the start, but we were badly spooked last year when the case numbers went completely out of control because of pre-Xmas socialising.  I'm not joking when I say that we hang out of the rafters and each other when we do boozers and nightclubs.  It was so bad that at one point around New Year our case numbers were running at about 3 or 4 times the UK's rate.  Since then the Government here have been ultra-cautious.  Right now, the fear is that if they leave things as they are and ICU and death stats get worse, they'll either have to do something more drastic or else take the blame for the deaths.  We've just reached the point in our cycle where our third shots are being rolled out to people aged 50-60, and by January 9th we should have boosters given to almost everyone over 40 and everyone vulnerable.  That's why they're pulling back a bit, I think.

[JudyJudyJudy]

5 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Thanks for that - I used to see the daily numbers for Scotland when they were posted here, but I haven't seen them for a while, so I'd no idea what the comparison was like.  The ratios are also a bit weird when you consider that we'd have a lower percentage of the population than Scotland would have in older age groups

 

@JamesM48mentioned that we've been a bit more risk-averse here from the start.  I wouldn't say from the start, but we were badly spooked last year when the case numbers went completely out of control because of pre-Xmas socialising.  I'm not joking when I say that we hang out of the rafters and each other when we do boozers and nightclubs.  It was so bad that at one point around New Year our case numbers were running at about 3 or 4 times the UK's rate.  Since then the Government here have been ultra-cautious.  Right now, the fear is that if they leave things as they are and ICU and death stats get worse, they'll either have to do something more drastic or else take the blame for the deaths.  We've just reached the point in our cycle where our third shots are being rolled out to people aged 50-60, and by January 9th we should have boosters given to almost everyone over 40 and everyone vulnerable.  That's why they're pulling back a bit, I think.

Thanks for that information from someone on the inside as it were . 

[Ulysses]

3 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Thanks for that information from someone on the inside as it were . 

 

Cheers.  There could yet be a backlash here.  We'll just have to wait and see.  We had a load of parents and teachers complaining because there are no restrictions in primary schools, and demanding the introduction of masks, while the powers that be resisted.  Then at the end of last week they decided to bring in masks for the older end of primary schools (more or less 9 and older).  So the parents and teachers went away happy - and another bunch of parents started jumping up and down and complaining about their kids having to wear masks.

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

Cheers.  There could yet be a backlash here.  We'll just have to wait and see.  We had a load of parents and teachers complaining because there are no restrictions in primary schools, and demanding the introduction of masks, while the powers that be resisted.  Then at the end of last week they decided to bring in masks for the older end of primary schools (more or less 9 and older).  So the parents and teachers went away happy - and another bunch of parents started jumping up and down and complaining about their kids having to wear masks.

I completely disagree with the masking of children on so many levels really .

[Ulysses]

Just now, JamesM48 said:

I completely disagree with the masking of children on so many levels really .

 

So did the government here, until they got so much hassle from parents that they caved in.  I think it's literally a case that parents here will do anything to make sure that no-one is calling for schools to be closed.

[Ulysses]

In other news, I see that the Italians have released a photo of the fake arm guy just after his jab.

 

 

[willie wallace]

1 hour ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I hope they get well soon.

Also congratulations on the new addition to the family.

Cheers for that.

Much appreciated.

[The Real Maroonblood]

12 minutes ago, willie wallace said:

Cheers for that.

Much appreciated.

👍

[Francis Albert]

Did I hear right in tonight's news that there has so far been one identified case of the new virus variant Omicron in Ireland?

Edited December 3, 2021 by Francis Albert

[Francis Albert]

WHO says that Omicron has now been seen in 38 countries. So far no deaths have been reported.

[Taffin]

7 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

WHO says that Omicron has now been seen in 38 countries. So far no deaths have been reported.

 

Interesting. We'll now never know whether it would have been fine on its own or not. If there remains no deaths from it people will just say it was because of the increased restrictions.

 

Either way, regardless of the cause...let's hope it remains at no deaths from it.

[Victorian]

Jair Bolsonaro has been saying that the vaccines have been giving people AIDS in the UK.  Helpful.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Victorian

[Nucky Thompson]

Calm down about omicron says expert

 

Calm down about omicron – UK’s immunity is different to South Africa’s, says expert (telegraph.co.uk)

[Francis Albert]

11 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Interesting. We'll now never know whether it would have been fine on its own or not. If there remains no deaths from it people will just say it was because of the increased restrictions.

 

Either way, regardless of the cause...let's hope it remains at no deaths from it.

On your first para I think we will have some idea of the effect of restrictions because of the different rules on different countries. The UK has been described as the Sweden of today in relation to Omnicron because we have so far very light restrictions compared to most of Europe. There will be nothing conclusive just as there is no really conclusive evidence on the ultimate impact of Coronavirus of different levels of restrictions. 

 No doubt there will be deaths but the lack so far is surely encouraging especially given that the great majority of cases have been in places with poor medical facilities.

[JudyJudyJudy]

32 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Calm down about omicron says expert

 

Calm down about omicron – UK’s immunity is different to South Africa’s, says expert (telegraph.co.uk)

Heretic ...................thats good news....

 

 

 

 

[Rocco_Jambo]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59528615

 

Protect the old and vulnerable... but only if it's to do with covid.

[JudyJudyJudy]

15 minutes ago, Rocco_Jambo said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59528615

 

Protect the old and vulnerable... but only if it's to do with covid.

Thats completely bonkers

[Rocco_Jambo]

5 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Thats completely bonkers

Completely.

Then there’s a back log and then it happens for the 4th, 5th, 6th booster and it never ends.

 

Bare in mind that they will also get paid £15 or more per booster they give.