Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[jack D and coke]

1 minute ago, 3fingersreid said:

Can we run a sweep to see which day in January the full lockdown will happen ? 
 

as I’ve said before ,point scoring from ALL the govts involved are disgraceful .

The point scoring from posters is also mind numbing and some really need to park their political seethe for five minutes and give themselves some ****ing peace. Trying to come across like they have a point when they could literally try turn buying a cheese sandwich into a political football. 

[steve123]

12 minutes ago, Victorian said:

AZ vaccine doubts.  Much more positive take.

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/oxfrod-astrazeneca-vaccine-results-test-covid-vaccination-effectiveness-772879

 

Cheers for that, I had just seen it breaking on Sky and they were not being positive.

[redjambo]

39 minutes ago, GBJambo said:

Falkirk should be moving into tier 2

 

26 minutes ago, Heartsmad1874 said:

Aberdeen/Grampian showing signs of a move to Level 3.

 

If Falkirk can maintain these figures, and the other indicators look good, then probably yes.

 

Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire are both suffering from the  current outbreak at the meat processing plant in Portlethen. If there's any sign that the virus has transferred over from those affected at the plant into the general community then yes.

 

However, in both cases, several more days of data is required, imo.

 

Edit: I think that given the recent situation with Midlothian, the SG will probably now be erring very much on the side of caution and will only be moving areas down a tier if the data is solid and consistent (e.g. 2-3 week's worth of all the indicators for an area looking good). Just my opinion though - I've certainly been wrong before.

Edited November 26, 2020 by redjambo

[Don Dan]

44 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Today's 7-day per-100,000 council area case rates:

 

Council Area	Tier	7-day per-100,000 cases
		Today	Yesterday			Start of Tier 4’s
Renfrewshire	4	238	241	-3		260	-22
South Lanarkshire	4	206	201	+5		233	-27
Glasgow City	4	199	198	+1		235	-36
North Lanarkshire	4	194	194	0		235	-41
East Renfrewshire	4	170	171	-1		195	-25
Stirling	4	155	138	+17		210	-55
East Ayrshire	4	146	142	+4		152	-6
West Lothian	4	135	161	-26		193	-58
North Ayrshire	3	131	109	+22		124	+7
East Dunbartonshire	4	130	117	+13		161	-31
South Ayrshire	4	130	129	+1		153	-23
West Dunbartonshire	4	123	124	-1		142	-19
Clackmannanshire	3	120	95	+25		165	-45
Inverclyde	3	111	86	+25		99	+12
Dundee City	3	105	100	+5		102	+3
Fife	3	102	99	+3		116	-14
Perth and Kinross	3	95	91	+4		116	-21
Midlothian	3	91	88	+3		101	-10
Aberdeen City	2	89	81	+8		51	+38
Edinburgh City	3	87	80	+7		84	+3
Angus	3	79	81	-2		88	-9
Aberdeenshire	2	78	78	0		64	+14
Falkirk	3	58	59	-1		85	-27
East Lothian	2	55	61	-6		48	+7
Scottish Borders	2	50	57	-7		74	-24
Argyll and Bute	2	48	43	+5		31	+17
Dumfries and Galloway	2	28	31	-3		34	-6
Shetland Islands	1	17	9	+8		13	+4
Highland	1	15	15	0		19	-4
Moray	1	9	15	-6		25	-16
Na h-Eileanan Siar	1	4	0	+4		0	+4
Orkney Islands	1	4	4	0		4	0

These lockdown tiers don’t appear to be working although I haven’t seen the 7 day averages.

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

These lockdown tiers don’t appear to be working although I haven’t seen the 7 day averages.

 

These *are* the 7-day figures.

[Victorian]

7 minutes ago, steve123 said:

Cheers for that, I had just seen it breaking on Sky and they were not being positive.

 

The BBC News website is often a good bellwether on the importance of a story and they don't have an article about it.  

[GinRummy]

They haven’t done enough to ensure mass uptake of flu vaccinations. Imagine a bad flu season gets thrown into the mix. Suddenly you’ll have people, at little risk of dying from Covid alone, catching both viruses and dying. The amount of cash they’re chucking about free flu vaccines could have been a decent starting point. 

[CavySlaveJambo]

Something really weird is going on with the Midlothian figures.  They go low and then all of a sudden there is a spike. It was that spike last week that was problematic. 

9 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

 

Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire are both suffering from the  current outbreak at the meat processing plant in Portlethen. If there's any sign that the virus has transferred over from those affected at the plant into the general community then yes.

 

I am sorry but no matter what the reason, if they no longer meet the criteria for tier 2 they need to get moved to the appropriate tier.   By the time the outbreak was noticed they could have had several weeks of community spread, 
 

[Don Dan]

14 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

These lockdown tiers don’t appear to be working although I haven’t seen the 7 day averages.

Sorry I thought it was only a comparison from the previous day despite the 7 day per 1000 cases. 😬

[redjambo]

Just now, CavySlaveJambo said:

Something really weird is going on with the Midlothian figures.  They go low and then all of a sudden there is a spike. It was that spike last week that was problematic. 

 

I am sorry but no matter what the reason, if they no longer meet the criteria for tier 2 they need to get moved to the appropriate tier.   By the time the outbreak was noticed they could have had several weeks of community spread, 
 

 

That would have been picked up the figures though, it wasn't. There was a sudden spike, caused mostly because Grampian NHS offered testing to everyone at the plant when the first few positives came to light. The team on the ground in Grampian will be aware of how many new infections are related to the plant or not (the current figure is 86) and will be looking very closely at the figures over the next couple of days - if there isn't a drop to "normal" rates then there will no doubt be a move to Tier 3 in the offing. For the moment, it's "Hold!".

 

For the Midlothian figures, testing levels are not stable over the week which can affect the number of cases appearing daily. Also, you get the odd "superspreader" event where someone who comes into a lot of contact with people catches Covid and then without realising spreads it to others. Generally, cases don't come in smooth curves, they come in fits and starts depending on what's happening in the underlying reality. That's why, imo, 7-day stats are much better for analysis because they tend to smooth out any spikes and drops.

 

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Sorry I thought it was only a comparison from the previous day despite the 7 day per 1000 cases. 😬

 

I may need to redesign the spreadsheet a little - you may not be the only one who has interpreted it that way!

[3fingersreid]

29 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

The point scoring from posters is also mind numbing and some really need to park their political seethe for five minutes and give themselves some ****ing peace. Trying to come across like they have a point when they could literally try turn buying a cheese sandwich into a political football. 

That’s a fair anology 😂😂

[Footballfirst]

I've been keeping an eye on case numbers in the Edinburgh neighbourhoods, just for my own peace of mind about my own locality.

 

One neighbourhood that sticks out like a sore thumb is Currie West with 55 cases in the seven day period up to 23 November.  While you shouldn't place too much weight on small samples, Currie West's population of 6,164 has a 7 day / 100k rate of a frightening 892, more that 10 times the rate across the city.

 

Does anyone know the source of this spike?  Is it Heriot Watt, Currie High School, a factory, or care home? If it is simply community transfer, then we know it isn't hospitality that is causing the spread.  The odd thing is that the neighbouring areas are all showing fewer than 5 cases for the same week.

Edited November 26, 2020 by Footballfirst

[3fingersreid]

23 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

They haven’t done enough to ensure mass uptake of flu vaccinations. Imagine a bad flu season gets thrown into the mix. Suddenly you’ll have people, at little risk of dying from Covid alone, catching both viruses and dying. The amount of cash they’re chucking about free flu vaccines could have been a decent starting point. 

Health boards stopped giving vaccines to pharmacies , wanted people to use the drive through centres. Pharmacies were doing just fine as well 🤷🏻‍♂️

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, 3fingersreid said:

Health boards stopped giving vaccines to pharmacies , wanted people to use the drive through centres. Pharmacies were doing just fine as well 🤷🏻‍♂️

Never realised that. You have to wonder why both governments haven’t been more pro-active throughout this whole sorry saga. 

[stevie]

10 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I've been keeping an eye on case numbers in the Edinburgh neighbourhoods, just for my own peace of mind about my own locality.

 

One neighbourhood that sticks out like a sore thumb is Currie West with 55 cases in the seven day period up to 23 November.  While you shouldn't place too much weight on small samples, Currie West's population of 6,164 has a 7 day / 100k rate of a frightening 892, more that 10 times the rate across the city.

 

Does anyone know the source of this spike?  Is it Currie High School, a factory, or care home? If it is simply community transfer, then we know it isn't hospitality that is causing the spread.  The odd thing is that the neighbouring areas are all showing fewer than 5 cases for the same week.

ive asked myself the same question FF,the only answer I can think of is the school!

[redjambo]

11 minutes ago, 3fingersreid said:

Health boards stopped giving vaccines to pharmacies , wanted people to use the drive through centres. Pharmacies were doing just fine as well 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

As far as I was aware, but I could well be wrong, in previous years pharmacies sourced their flu vaccines separately from the NHS - any flu vaccine that you obtained at a pharmacy was private. In fact, this year was the first where some boards decided to distribute the vaccines through community pharmacies. The huge demand for the flu jab this year meant that pharmacies soon ran out of their private stocks.

 

https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news/scottish-health-boards-commission-small-numbers-of-flu-vaccinations-from-community-pharmacy/20208462.article?firstPass=false

 

What the boards did do this year, though, was to take over the administering of the vaccine from GP's surgeries. The roll-out of this new method has not been without its problems:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54537729

 

Edit: I'm not an expert in this area at all, so welcome being corrected on this.

Edited November 26, 2020 by redjambo

[The Real Maroonblood]

46 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

Of all the bat shit stuff that’s went on and the strange and annoying decisions they’ve made this is the one that has made me piss myself laughing. 
It is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard and at this moment in this bizarre year that really takes some beating. 

Exactly. 

 

[Footballfirst]

2 minutes ago, stevie said:

ive asked myself the same question FF,the only answer I can think of is the school!

 

I've managed to get information from a third party who is on one of the local community councils. He believes that it may be Heriot Watt University. A check on its post code puts it into "Currie West"

 

It would be the most plausible explanation if there is extensive testing of those on the campus.

 

It's is not good news for Hearts though. 

[redjambo]

4 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

 

I've managed to get information from a third party who is on one of the local community councils. He believes that it may be Heriot Watt University. A check on its post code puts it into "Currie West"

 

It would be the most plausible explanation if there is extensive testing of those on the campus.

 

It's is not good news for Hearts though. 

 

Stand by for the imminent mass voluntary student testing around Scotland starting on Monday - we could well see some very high figures indeed.

Edited November 26, 2020 by redjambo

[Jambo-Jimbo]

6 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Never realised that. You have to wonder why both governments haven’t been more pro-active throughout this whole sorry saga. 

 

I think it's a case of demand has completely outstriped supply and that's not just the UK but Worldwide, with a huge increase of people wanting to take the flu jab this year.

 

The initial orders for the flu vaccine were submitted by April, nobody knew back then that come October there would have been such a demand from the public to get vaccinated.  When it became clear that there was likely to be such a high demand extra supplies were ordered, but so were the rest of the Northern Hemisphere ordering extra supplies at the same time, and as the flu vaccine has to be grown, it takes time to make more.

 

As Red says above, pharmacies such as Boots, Lloyds etc are usually private and they were also caught out and ran out of supplies very quickly.

 

 

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

I think it's a case of demand has completely outstriped supply and that's not just the UK but Worldwide, with a huge increase of people wanting to take the flu jab this year.

 

The initial orders for the flu vaccine were submitted by April, nobody knew back then that come October there would have been such a demand from the public to get vaccinated.  When it became clear that there was likely to be such a high demand extra supplies were ordered, but so were the rest of the Northern Hemisphere ordering extra supplies at the same time, and as the flu vaccine has to be grown, it takes time to make more.

 

As Red says above, pharmacies such as Boots, Lloyds etc are usually private and they were also caught out and ran out of supplies very quickly.

 

 

Fair enough. I maybe shouldn’t have jumped to conclusions if that is the case, which seems likely.

[Nucky Thompson]

26 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I've been keeping an eye on case numbers in the Edinburgh neighbourhoods, just for my own peace of mind about my own locality.

 

One neighbourhood that sticks out like a sore thumb is Currie West with 55 cases in the seven day period up to 23 November.  While you shouldn't place too much weight on small samples, Currie West's population of 6,164 has a 7 day / 100k rate of a frightening 892, more that 10 times the rate across the city.

 

Does anyone know the source of this spike?  Is it Heriot Watt, Currie High School, a factory, or care home? If it is simply community transfer, then we know it isn't hospitality that is causing the spread.  The odd thing is that the neighbouring areas are all showing fewer than 5 cases for the same week.

There's been an outbreak at HW university so it could be that.

There is now mass testing of all students

[Footballfirst]

5 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

There's been an outbreak at HW university so it could be that.

There is now mass testing of all students

Confirmed  67 positive cases and 151 self isolating among the students

 

https://www.hw.ac.uk/coronavirus/daily-statistics.htm

Edited November 26, 2020 by Footballfirst

[Footballfirst]

1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

I wonder how the mass testing of students will affect any potential tier changes for Edinburgh, Stirling etc. 

 

I would hope that it would not affect it adversely.  It is much more manageable if there is a specific location identified, rather than wider community transfer.

Edited November 26, 2020 by Footballfirst

[redjambo]

4 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I wonder how the mass testing of students will affect any potential tier changes for Edinburgh, Stirling etc. 

 

I suspect that the SG will probably ignore those figures when making their tier decisions.

Edited November 26, 2020 by redjambo

[Jambo-Jimbo]

4 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Fair enough. I maybe shouldn’t have jumped to conclusions if that is the case, which seems likely.

 

Of course it didn't help when WM announced in August that in England the over 50's were eligible for a free flu jab, and pushed for everybody in the general population to get vaccinated this year, and that is a lot of the problem we see now, because the extra millions added in August were not accounted for or ordered in the original NHS order submitted back in April, hence why there is very low supplies at the moment. 

 

I think it'll be around December/January before there will be plentiful supplies again, as I'm sure I read that it takes something like 4 months to culture & grow the flu vaccine.

 

[Footballfirst]

If you took the 55 "Currie West" (HWU) cases off the Edinburgh 7 day total, then the city's case rate would drop from 84.0 to 73.5, i.e. within the Level 1 boundary.

[frankblack]

5 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

If you took the 55 "Currie West" (HWU) cases off the Edinburgh 7 day total, then the city's case rate would drop from 84.0 to 73.5, i.e. within the Level 1 boundary.

 

We have been pointing at the crazy situation the SG have allowed to happen with universities since September.

 

Reckless mismanagement by the SG at the very least.

[steve123]

11 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

If you took the 55 "Currie West" (HWU) cases off the Edinburgh 7 day total, then the city's case rate would drop from 84.0 to 73.5, i.e. within the Level 1 boundary.

I am not going to bore everyone with my thoughts on this again as have went on about if for a while however I am certainly not in favour of SG handling that is for sure.

[Don Dan]

If the HW infections were know to the SG they any right minded thinking analyst would not have put Edinburgh into Tier Three. 
It’s making Edinburgh residents pay for it.

 

Edited November 26, 2020 by Boy Daniel

[steve123]

4 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

If the HW infections were know to the SG they any right minded thinking analyst would not have put Edinburgh into Tier Three. 
It’s making Edinburgh residents pay it.

 

I said I would not bore folk but I will, she is terrified of having Edinburgh open & Glasgow not.

 

Her system is a shambles and is causing considerable damage to businesses and peoples lives.

 

 

Edited November 26, 2020 by steve123

[3fingersreid]

1 hour ago, redjambo said:

 

As far as I was aware, but I could well be wrong, in previous years pharmacies sourced their flu vaccines separately from the NHS - any flu vaccine that you obtained at a pharmacy was private. In fact, this year was the first where some boards decided to distribute the vaccines through community pharmacies. The huge demand for the flu jab this year meant that pharmacies soon ran out of their private stocks.

 

https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news/scottish-health-boards-commission-small-numbers-of-flu-vaccinations-from-community-pharmacy/20208462.article?firstPass=false

 

What the boards did do this year, though, was to take over the administering of the vaccine from GP's surgeries. The roll-out of this new method has not been without its problems:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54537729

 

Edit: I'm not an expert in this area at all, so welcome being corrected on this.

 

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

I think it's a case of demand has completely outstriped supply and that's not just the UK but Worldwide, with a huge increase of people wanting to take the flu jab this year.

 

The initial orders for the flu vaccine were submitted by April, nobody knew back then that come October there would have been such a demand from the public to get vaccinated.  When it became clear that there was likely to be such a high demand extra supplies were ordered, but so were the rest of the Northern Hemisphere ordering extra supplies at the same time, and as the flu vaccine has to be grown, it takes time to make more.

 

As Red says above, pharmacies such as Boots, Lloyds etc are usually private and they were also caught out and ran out of supplies very quickly.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, GinRummy said:

Fair enough. I maybe shouldn’t have jumped to conclusions if that is the case, which seems likely.

I asked my friendly pharmacist friend and this is what he replied 

 

Yeah lothian health stopped supplying pharmacies with vaccines to force people to go to drive through - pharmacies did more than 200% of projected vaccines - all from lothian health were free - pharmacies only have private stocks left -

Edited November 26, 2020 by 3fingersreid

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

9 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

No it's just i have a job and a family.

 

 

you’ll need to find the time to dredge up some spurious numbers and try to pass it off as something which means anything

[AlphonseCapone]

5 hours ago, jack D and coke said:

The point scoring from posters is also mind numbing and some really need to park their political seethe for five minutes and give themselves some ****ing peace. Trying to come across like they have a point when they could literally try turn buying a cheese sandwich into a political football. 

 

You would say that with your seperatist cheese agenda.... 

[AlphonseCapone]

Hopefully the vaccine not only wipes out the virus but also wipes out folk that failed high school biology from screaming "what about the science". 

Edited November 26, 2020 by AlphonseCapone

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

2 hours ago, Brian Dundas said:

95% of your posts are pure shite, FACT!! Saw a link YouTube on Facebook that had a guy in his bedroom say so. 

 

(😉)

 

only 95% that guy in his bedroom must be an amiable sort

 

positive feedback like that always welcome

 

 

 

[graygo]

Here's the proof that having a substantial meal negates the alcohol risk.

 

[graygo]

1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said:

Also proves you just need to order it and not actually eat it. 

 

Can't argue with science.

[CavySlaveJambo]

2 hours ago, AlphonseCapone said:

Hopefully the vaccine not only wipes out the virus but also wipes out folk that failed high school biology from screaming "what about the science". 

I’m hoping that even if it doesn’t prevent every case it actually stops the spread of the virus. 

[ri Alban]

Let's see what happens in America with thanksgiving and have a rethink on this Christmas thingy. 

[A Boy Named Crow]

27 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Let's see what happens in America with thanksgiving and have a rethink on this Christmas thingy. 

How big a jump would it have to be to even register though? The case numbers in America are mental already!

[ri Alban]

1 minute ago, A Boy Named Crow said:

How big a jump would it have to be to even register though? The case numbers in America are mental already!

Watching it just now. Mental, rights before living. Insane. 

[ri Alban]

Sorry PM and FMs, you cannot restrict people from earning a living and not fund it. And you wonder why people will just say 'Feck it! '. Pay people, FFS! 

 

No not UC, pay them, properly, like you are paid. 

Edited November 27, 2020 by ri Alban

[ri Alban]

Passed all the hurdles for Multi drop at Amazon. But sorry, I won't be sitting in a room for 8 hrs for 2 days at this moment in time, thanks. 

 

Anyway, Tax rebate arrives next week. 

 

  Christmas holidays with my feet up, now.

Cider! Cider!... Cider! Cider! 

[steve123]

33 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

It looks like school holidays will be extended by at least a week this year. Still to be confirmed but looking more and more likely. 
 

The above relates to Scotland. 

Just seen that, I actually think it is a good idea.

 

The teachers have done a brilliant job and let us parents get back to some sense of normality with out own work.

 

I would not begrudge them the time if it gives the prospect of a semi normal Christmas.

[Dagger Is Back]

1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:

It looks like school holidays will be extended by at least a week this year. Still to be confirmed but looking more and more likely. 
 

The above relates to Scotland. 

Sorry but do you have a link by any chance? Got it. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/leaked-document-shows-scottish-government-23075610.amp

Edited November 27, 2020 by Dagger Is Back

[Harry Potter]

3 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Passed all the hurdles for Multi drop at Amazon. But sorry, I won't be sitting in a room for 8 hrs for 2 days at this moment in time, thanks. 

 

Anyway, Tax rebate arrives next week. 

 

  Christmas holidays with my feet up, now.

Cider! Cider!... Cider! Cider! 

You will miss all the drug/alcohol testing as well.

[Governor Tarkin]

3 hours ago, steve123 said:

 

The teachers have done a brilliant job and let us parents get back to some sense of normality with out own work.

 

I would not begrudge them the time if it gives the prospect of a semi normal Christmas.

 

The ones I know certainly have. 👍

[frankblack]

4 hours ago, Lord BJ said:

It looks like school holidays will be extended by at least a week this year. Still to be confirmed but looking more and more likely. 
 

The above relates to Scotland. 

 

They should be using the time from now until the Christmas hoidays to put in place what needs to be done to get universities working online only from the new year until the vaccine.