Hard Brexit

[Francis Albert]

2 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

 

It is indeed the second or third largest economy but one of the weakest performing in the EU.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263008/gdp-growth-in-eu-countries-compared-to-same-quarter-previous-year/

 

This is before the good times arrive.

I see Germany is also "one of the weakest" along with France.  I suspect a one quarter comparison of growth with growth in one previous quarter may not quite tell the whole story.

 

But well done - classic Project Fear use of economic statistics.

Edited September 18, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Seymour M Hersh]

2 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I'd certainly love to see the agenda of JRM and the boys. 

Nada so far.

 

A fairly straight forward and simple solution for the supposedly impossible Irish Border.

[The Mighty Thor]

9 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

A fairly straight forward and simple solution for the supposedly impossible Irish Border.

What is? Moonbeams?

The modern day equivalent of an honesty box system? 

Its risible. It's gone very quiet since the big announcement last week, purely because anyone that may have to implement such a load of nonsense shot it down straight off the bat and the cabal of chancers have disappeared to think up the next hair brained plan. 

[Francis Albert]

Given the high profile of the immigration issue in the context of Brexit I am surprised the Government's Guidance Committee on Immigration's views haven't been mentioned. Whatever you think of their views they do illustrate one example of how British policy could change (and be less discriminatory as between EU and non-EU citizens) post Brexit. It suggests aligning visa arrangements for EU citizens with those that apply currently to non-EU citizens coming to the UK to work, which distinguish between low skilled workers defined (rather dubiously) as those earning less than £30,000 and skilled workers earning more than £30,000,  at the same time removing the cap on numbers. The Guardian's report consists entirely of business leaders claims that this is "elitist". Now as I say the merits of this are certainly  debatable but the entire Guardian news report (in minor Project Fear key) simply reports business leaders complaints that it is "elitist" and will damage their businesses by restricting their ability to recruit. Maybe so but there is no mention of an obvious other motive business leaders may have in opposing the proposal - that it would restrict their ability to rely on cheap EU labour rather than pay UK workers more.

 

Edited September 19, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Cade]

"immigrants are pushing wages down"

 

so........increase the minimum wage

 

simples

[Boris]

15 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Given the high profile of the immigration issue in the context of Brexit I am surprised the Government's Guidance Committee on Immigration's views haven't been mentioned. Whatever you think of their views they do illustrate one example of how British policy could change (and be less discriminatory as between EU and non-EU citizens) post Brexit. It suggests aligning visa arrangements for EU citizens with those that apply currently to non-EU citizens coming to the UK to work, which distinguish between low skilled workers defined (rather dubiously) as those earning less than £30,000 and skilled workers earning more than £30,000,  at the same time removing the cap on numbers. The Guardian's report consists entirely of business leaders claims that this is "elitist". Now as I say the merits of this are certainly  debatable but the entire Guardian news report (in minor Project Fear key) simply reports business leaders complaints that it is "elitist" and will damage their businesses by restricting their ability to recruit. Maybe so but there is no mention of an obvious other motive business leaders may have in opposing the proposal - that it would restrict their ability to rely on cheap EU labour rather than pay UK workers more.

 

 

Is EU labour cheaper?  Minimum/living wage would still apply so surely the rate is the rate, regardless of where the worker comes from?

[Ulysses]

14 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

Is EU labour cheaper?  Minimum/living wage would still apply so surely the rate is the rate, regardless of where the worker comes from?

 

It doesn't matter whether EU labour is cheaper or not.

 

After Brexit, the UK already has the option to treat EU citizens the same way as citizens from the rest of the world, and you don't even have to consult with the EU about it.

 

And when you put it that way, it's much nicer than calling it "crashing out".

 

So why not just fire ahead?  

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Sky News has obtained a confidential memo sent from the Airports Council International to Michel Barnier warning him that EU airports couldn't cope with a 'no deal' brexit and urging him to allow British passengers to remain in the 'One-stop security' regime.

The memo goes on to say that in an extreme case Schipol airport could be faced with up to €100m cost in upgrades which could take 3 years to complete, if the airport has to security screen British transit passengers.

The memo is significant in that it's the first time that EU businesses have spelt out what a 'no deal' brexit could cost them in terms of money and disruption, up until now it's all been about how negative a 'no deal' would impact the UK, this memo shows how a 'no deal' impacts certain EU airports.

https://news.sky.com/story/eu-airports-unable-to-cope-with-safety-risks-of-no-deal-brexit-leaked-memo-reveals-11502372

 

Edited September 19, 2018 by Jambo-Jimbo

[The Mighty Thor]

4 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Sky News has obtained a confidential memo sent from the Airports Council International to Michel Barnier warning him that EU airports couldn't cope with a 'no deal' brexit and urging him to allow British passengers to remain in the 'One-stop security' regime.

The memo goes on to say that in an extreme case Schipol airport could be faced with up to €100m cost in upgrades which could take 3 years to complete, if the airport has to security screen British transit passengers.

The memo is significant in that it's the first time that EU businesses have spelt out what a 'no deal' brexit could cost them in terms of money and disruption, up until now it's all been about how negative a 'no deal' would impact the UK, this memo shows how a 'no deal' impacts certain EU airports.

https://news.sky.com/story/eu-airports-unable-to-cope-with-safety-risks-of-no-deal-brexit-leaked-memo-reveals-11502372

 

More project fear nonsense.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

The EU are fecking panicking now. Seems to me that they’ve been deliberately obstructive in the hope that the UK would have another vote (and vote remain) in the interim. Now they can see that the idea of a no-deal Brexit is shocking for them too. Seriously, politicians on all sides of this want shot.

[Cade]

Every three months the same:

 

EU: We won't let you cherry pick, especially not from the 4 freedoms.

UK: We want to cherry pick, especially from the 4 freedoms.

EU: Go away and come back with a different plan.

 

Just happened again today, with Maybot's "Chequers Plan" being flat out rejected by the EU as a cherry picking fantasy.

 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

No shock there, May's chequers plan had been tipped to fail from day one, it seemed May was the only one not to think so.

 

[Thunderstruck]

21 hours ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

The EU are fecking panicking now. Seems to me that they’ve been deliberately obstructive in the hope that the UK would have another vote (and vote remain) in the interim. Now they can see that the idea of a no-deal Brexit is shocking for them too. Seriously, politicians on all sides of this want shot.

 

The former Finnish PM said the following a couple of years ago - 

 

“European negotiations have a tendency to advance in three phases: crisis, chaos and sub-optimal solution. Brexit is no exception to this rule. The only problem is that the negotiations will most probably be nasty, brutish and long. And with a sub-optimal solution, only law firms will emerge as winners.“

 

Seems he was right and we are now seeing the pressure arising from the EU hoping for a change of mind instead of working towards a compromise. 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

The former Finnish PM said the following a couple of years ago - 

 

“European negotiations have a tendency to advance in three phases: crisis, chaos and sub-optimal solution. Brexit is no exception to this rule. The only problem is that the negotiations will most probably be nasty, brutish and long. And with a sub-optimal solution, only law firms will emerge as winners.“

 

Seems he was right and we are now seeing the pressure arising from the EU hoping for a change of mind instead of working towards a compromise. 

 

 

Exactly, heard a political commentator saying similar the other day, that some within the EU still think the UK will have a second referendum just like Ireland, Denmark & the Netherlands did and that the EU will get the right result this time. 

Despite the public show of unity, I have now heard a few jounalists saying that their sources are telling them that behind the scenes some EU countries are getting quite concerned about a no deal scenario and the impact it would have on them, indeed Viktor Orban all but confirmed that things are not as unified behind the scenes despite what Tusk et al might say to the contrary in public.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1020288/Brexit-news-latest-UK-no-deal-Theresa-May-Orban-EU-European-Union-second-referendum

 

 

Edited September 20, 2018 by Jambo-Jimbo

[Don Dan]

No deal it is. 

[Victorian]

Utterly deluded control freak.    If it wasn't so serious it would be amusing to watch.     Her and her party continue to take a wrecking ball to the economy and peoples' prospects while she persists with the worst negotiating strategy ever.     Still trying to scare the EU with her no-deal threat while the EU laughs it's ****** off.    

[Pans Jambo]

[NANOJAMBO]

It's official ; Macron calls out Tory Brexiteers as liars and he does it in front of the TV cameras. Maybot can hardly speak - her stress levels must be horrific. 

[Victorian]

Pretty clear that the EU side have finally lost patience and faith and are beginning to speak some hard,  non-diplomatic truths.     There's no chance of any deal as it stands.    Only a fundamental change of personnel and a delayed conclusion can rescue a deal.    

 

Theresa May.    The current day Emperor Nero.

[Francis Albert]

9 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

It's official ; Macron calls out Tory Brexiteers as liars and he does it in front of the TV cameras. Maybot can hardly speak - her stress levels must be horrific. 

Sounds to me like he is getting a bit nervous.

 

I gather at the summit the others gave May 10 minutes last evening to put forward the UK position.

 

Cue "that's all it deserves" but it really doesn't show much willingness to listen or negotiate does it?

Edited September 20, 2018 by Francis Albert

[NANOJAMBO]

1 minute ago, Francis Albert said:

Sounds to me like he is getting a bit nervous.

I doubt it.  As per the previous poster, sounds like patience has run out. There will be no compromise on the single market and May better get the message. 

[Francis Albert]

2 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

I doubt it.  As per the previous poster, sounds like patience has run out. There will be no compromise on the single market and May better get the message. 

If so we should switch to discussing a "no deal" transition.

[Victorian]

7 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Sounds to me like he is getting a bit nervous.

 

I gather at the summit the others gave May 10 minutes last evening to put forward the UK position.

 

Cue "that's all it deserves" but it really doesn't show much willingness to listen or negotiate does it?

 

They already know the substance of the great big magic Chequers plan and have already dismissed it as a non-starter.     Why waste any more time on an already failed premise?      That's the UK government's job.

[Space Mackerel]

14 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

It's official ; Macron calls out Tory Brexiteers as liars and he does it in front of the TV cameras. Maybot can hardly speak - her stress levels must be horrific. 

 

Im just waiting for the pukka official Tory Party split, it’s going to be FAF. 

[Victorian]

Even a Tory leadership challenge & contest wouldn't help now.     It's a 3 month exercise.     A commons no confidence motion and an election would take just as long,  if not longer.      May wont consider any postponement of the deadline.     We're being marched under the bus.

[Cruyff Turn]

I’m not a great fan of Theresa May, her plan was a compromise to try and appease both sides in her party and was always doomed to fail.

 

I do feel sorry for her though. Really. I think she’s probably a reasonable person and not the cold stoney faced persona that we see on TV. She was always on a hiding to nothing though with Brexit.She was the fall woman and the scapegoat.

 

Let’s not forget the person that caused this mess. It was David Cameron who decided to go all in on keeping his job to appease his backbenchers and lost. Where is that moon faced prick in all of this? 

[Cruyff Turn]

13 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Even a Tory leadership challenge & contest wouldn't help now.     It's a 3 month exercise.     A commons no confidence motion and an election would take just as long,  if not longer.      May wont consider any postponement of the deadline.     We're being marched under the bus.

They’ll wait until a no deal is done first. Let her take the wrap for it and then Mogg, Gove or Johnson will step in. 

You are right, if it wasn’t so serious it would be amusing. 

[Victorian]

All in the dishonest name of the public already having declared it's will.     Even though it was lied to.     We must respect the democratic will of the blindfolded people.

 

Another vote by the people now that they know the facts?

 

Nut.     Only parliament has the competence and sovereignty to decide.

[Francis Albert]

8 minutes ago, Victorian said:

All in the dishonest name of the public already having declared it's will.     Even though it was lied to.     We must respect the democratic will of the blindfolded people.

 

Another vote by the people now that they know the facts?

 

Nut.     Only parliament has the competence and sovereignty to decide.

What are the facts?

[jumpship]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2018/09/09/police-preparing-for-riots-and-disorder-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit-7928317/amp/

 

I was talking to a guy today who is convinced a no deal Brexit will lead to riots up and down England. He believes it would take very little to spark it off and it would domino up from London. 

 

His only reason for it not happening up here is cause we have a different mentality. 

Apparently when things go wrong in Scotland we look for structure and leadership.

He finished off by laughing about how we would need to shut the borders to stop the millions of English refugees... 

 

Now obviously that's a load of rubbish but I still googled riots England... it doesn't take much to spark one down there!.. so if Brexit is as bad as they say it will be...?

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

Strongly suspect that Labour aren't far away from backing a second referendum. Corbyn doesn't want it, everyone can see that, but they're almost being forced to commit one way or the other now.

[AlimOzturk]

Only option. Emergency 2nd referendum. This time arm the public with the true facts of what leaving the European Union will mean. Surely a deal can be made with the EU that may can bring to the table through a second referendum so the British public can accept it. 

 

A no deal Brexit will just harm everyone. Including the EU

[Victorian]

9 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

What are the facts?

 

There are many facts and there are many dispelled lies and theories.     The main fact that was concealed was regarding how badly and dishonestly the government was going to manage the process and negotiation.

 

The venture was hawked as a straightfoward process with a pot of gold at the end of the Brexit dividend rainbow.     The reality is a mammoth divorce bill (in the event of some kind of panic deal),   no Brexit dividend,    a highly compromised economic outlook and a government that insisted on full control and ended up being worked up the farter from the back bench maniacs.

Edited September 20, 2018 by Victorian

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Only option. Emergency 2nd referendum. This time arm the public with the true facts of what leaving the European Union will mean. Surely a deal can be made with the EU that may can bring to the table through a second referendum so the British public can accept it. 

 

A no deal Brexit will just harm everyone. Including the EU

 

I agree the sensible thing to do would be to present the reality of the situation for another vote, but I just can't get past the thought that the right thing to do is follow the result of the democratic vote through to the bitter, bitter end. 

[Victorian]

Another vote would first require the removal of this government.     Labour would need to be the main player in any no confidence motion.     Sadly,    the Labour Party leader can't trust all of his PLP to act in the interest of the country.    It would be hijacked to knife him in the back.

Edited September 20, 2018 by Victorian

[Scnorthedinburgh]

It all boils down to the Irish border question.

If May can't come up with a plan for a no hard border initial exit with no back stop border in the Irish sea.

At the moment the only deal on the table has NI still in the single market and the rest of UK out.

And that breaks all the devolved parliament agreements.

May can't be seen to be the one to break up the union so hard for her, Mogg and the rest don't care f everyone we are leaving at any cost.

[frankblack]

37 minutes ago, Victorian said:

All in the dishonest name of the public already having declared it's will.     Even though it was lied to.     We must respect the democratic will of the blindfolded people.

 

Another vote by the people now that they know the facts?

 

Nut.     Only parliament has the competence and sovereignty to decide.

 

Ah, the typical response from a remoaner - blame the vote leave side as too stupid, lied to, racists, or all of them.

 

This was a fair vote, and the democratic will of the people should be actioned, and any attempt to sabotage the will of the people is unacceptable.

[Victorian]

Laughable.    Fair vote?   Maybe in some definitions.     Fair process conducted in good faith?     Absolutely not.      The latter should disqualify the former.

[JackLadd]

I'm okay with Hard Brexit. The EU are WTO signatories and they'd better stick to that or we'll see them in The Hague. And they can shove any parachute £60bn payment from Mrs May.

[Cruyff Turn]

29 minutes ago, Scnorthedinburgh said:

It all boils down to the Irish border question.

If May can't come up with a plan for a no hard border initial exit with no back stop border in the Irish sea.

At the moment the only deal on the table has NI still in the single market and the rest of UK out.

And that breaks all the devolved parliament agreements.

May can't be seen to be the one to break up the union so hard for her, Mogg and the rest don't care f everyone we are leaving at any cost.

Yep. Mogg, Gove and Boris have played a ****ing blinder imo. I honestly believe it was their grand plan all along. 

[Cruyff Turn]

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-salzburg-eu-summit-brexit-chequers-humiliation-row-political-crisis-a8547551.html

 

 

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

All in the dishonest name of the public already having declared it's will.     Even though it was lied to.     We must respect the democratic will of the blindfolded people.

 

Another vote by the people now that they know the facts?

 

Nut.     Only parliament has the competence and sovereignty to decide.

The parliament that voted 85% to hold the referendum? Competence? And a shred of integrity if they decide to simply ignore the result?

 

[Victorian]

7 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

The parliament that voted 85% to hold the referendum? Competence? And a shred of integrity if they decide to simply ignore the result?

 

 

Once again,   that's a simple notion of democratic integrity whilst ignoring the underlying undemocratic detail.

 

Where is the integrity of facilitating the so-called democratic will of a population that was deceived?    What about the 48%?     What about the sector of the 52% who now feel the process has not been conducted in best faith?

 

Respecting the vote is a banner of convenience and little more.

Edited September 20, 2018 by Victorian

[AlimOzturk]

8 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

The parliament that voted 85% to hold the referendum? Competence? And a shred of integrity if they decide to simply ignore the result?

 

 

People change their minds and if they haven't then the result will be the same. 

 

At least the country know the consequences and difficulties of yes to Brexit vote now rather than pie in sky calculations and lies from characters such as Mogg, Boris that character from UKIP. 

 

You have a point about democratic integrity but the reality and risks of going ahead with this just aren't worth it.  The people were lied to

Edited September 20, 2018 by AlimOzturk

[The Mighty Thor]

36 minutes ago, Cruyff Turn said:

Yep. Mogg, Gove and Boris have played a ****ing blinder imo. I honestly believe it was their grand plan all along. 

Yup.

This is what its been about from the get go.

Ask the question who benefits from a no deal?

These dicks will be ramping it up in the next few weeks waiting on the inevitable train smash.

[frankblack]

22 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

 

People change their minds and if they haven't then the result will be the same. 

 

At least the country know the consequences and difficulties of yes to Brexit vote now rather than pie in sky calculations and lies from characters such as Mogg, Boris that character from UKIP. 

 

You have a point about democratic integrity but the reality and risks of going ahead with this just aren't worth it.  The people were lied to

 

The electorate made a decision and it is the duty of the government to implement it.  The consequences of the decision were crystal clear, and people should stop bitching because their side lost the argument.

[Francis Albert]

27 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

 

People change their minds and if they haven't then the result will be the same. 

 

At least the country know the consequences and difficulties of yes to Brexit vote now rather than pie in sky calculations and lies from characters such as Mogg, Boris that character from UKIP. 

 

You have a point about democratic integrity but the reality and risks of going ahead with this just aren't worth it.  The people were lied to

The people are always lied to. They know that.

Noone really knows the consequences of Brexit now any more than when they voted to leave. All that has happened is that they gave the wrong answer for most of those 85% of MPs who decided to hold a referendum.

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Folks do realise the can of worms they are opening up if a second referendum is granted?

 

Just remember that one day in the future a vote/election/referendum that you won could very well be overturned by giving the losers a second chance, a second vote.

 

And I've heard all the BS about we were lied to, we're lied to by the politicians of every party in every vote/election/referendum, it's what they do and have done since the year dot.

 

Just remember once that can of worms is opened, there is no going back, think carefully about the road you want to go down.

[Pans Jambo]

38 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

The electorate made a decision and it is the duty of the government to implement it.  The consequences of the decision were crystal clear, and people should stop bitching because their side lost the argument.

Dont agree with that. What was voted on was based on complete lies & deceit. A large section will have voted to leave based on what Boris was waffling on about etc. If proper facts are available once all the negotiations are complete then the public should get the informed chance to decide if they still want to drive off the edge of the cliff or not. IMO. 

To just continue without the brakes and accept going back to victorian age when we could stip it would be just mental!

[Cruyff Turn]

45 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Yup.

This is what its been about from the get go.

Ask the question who benefits from a no deal?

These dicks will be ramping it up in the next few weeks waiting on the inevitable train smash.

Aye, they put up their two female victims, Ledson or May. Had their whips get one of them through to the leadership contest and then had Gove & Boris pretend to stab each other in the back so May would get put in the hot seat. 

 

They’ll have a clear path to power now with May taking all the blame.

 

They have got all the powers back from Devolved Countries, they’ve got all the Human Rights laws, Employment laws, Tax  and Standards ripped up. They can make their own trade deals, Privatise everything that isn’t nailed down and make people work for 3 bucks an hour , zero fecks given. 

 

All part of their vision but they had to create all these scenarios to move all the obstacles out of the way first while they remain blameless in the background.

 

Absolute blinder.

 

Poor bloody Theresa May looking like she wanted to curl up in a ball and greet during that press conference. 

Edited September 20, 2018 by Cruyff Turn