Statto Posted July 17, 2016 Author Share Posted July 17, 2016 So looking like if we qualify next year and make it to third round we will be unseeded again. Appreciate it is difficult to predict, but if Scottish clubs were to start performing better in Europe, how many years do you think it would take for us to push into the top 15 nations and have a chance at being seeded in the third round? Whilst Malta was a brilliant trip (as I have heard Estonia was), it is a bit disappointing to think we play all season just for a few games against minnows in mid-summer with no realistic chance of ever making the groups. As the coefficients are calculated over a period of 5 seasons, when this season's points are added to our total, we lose our points from the 11/12 season, we earned 2.050 points that season. 2.360 points from the 12/13 season. Unless we earn equal to or more than that in the next couple of seasons, our coefficient will drop. As it stands, our current coefficient of 5.135 (12/13 season to 16/17) would be just short for being seeded in the 2nd qualifying round, based on this season. 9.935 was enough to be seeded in the 3rd qualifying round this season. To achieve a seeding place in the 3rd qualifying round in future, we would need to average 1.987 points per season for 5 seasons. You earn at least 2 points if you make the group stages, 1.5 for a play off round exit, 1 point for a QR3 exit, 0.5 for the 2nd round and 0.25 for the 1st. We also earn 20% of Scotland's average points every season, these figures over the past 5 seasons have been 0.550, 0.860, 0.650, 0.800 and 0.600. We really need to average a play off round exit and have at least 1 group stage participation over the next 5 years to gives ourselves a chance of 3rd round seeding. If we do manage to reach the group stages and can manage 2 or 3 wins, that will really set us up for the following 5 seasons and give us a massive opportunity to build the club up. The important thing, is to just keep qualifying, building up the points and if we can get to a point that we have the quality to challenge for the league, it should mean we have enough quality to get past the likes of Birkirkara and Krasnodar to get to the later qualifying stages and have a go at beating one of the big teams and progress as a club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daveandal Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 So actual results do have an effect, even at his stage, its just greatly reduced than in previous years. Unless we do something really unexpected and make the group stages it looks like the best we can hope for is still being seeded in round 2 next year. Just shows how vital qualifying for Europe every year is. That has to be our goal in the future. Failure to do so has to be considered a very bad season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Statto Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 So actual results do have an effect, even at his stage, its just greatly reduced than in previous years. Unless we do something really unexpected and make the group stages it looks like the best we can hope for is still being seeded in round 2 next year. Just shows how vital qualifying for Europe every year is. That has to be our goal in the future. Failure to do so has to be considered a very bad season. The match results have a bigger effect on Scotland's ranking to determine how many European places we get and what rounds our clubs enter. Aberdeen's loss in Luxembourg and Celtic's loss in Gibraltar has cost Scotland 0.500 points. It cost each of Scotland's clubs 0.100 points. Scotland was ranked 25th last season, the country earned 2.750 points in 11/12, which we'll lose once this season's points are added. So far this season we've earned 1.125 points. We need to be improving on the 2.750 to progress. If we drop below 25th, there's a chance depending on a number of complicated factors that all 3 of Scotland's Europa League entrants will enter directly into QR1. If we can climb into the top 17, we will have a team entering the 1st, the 2nd and the 3rd qualifying rounds, the top 15 would mean 2nd enters the Champions League, the Cup winner and 3rd enters the Europa League 3rd round and 4th place enters the 2nd round. Top 12 should be a long term goal for the SPFL, the Scottish Champions enter the Champions League group stages direct, 2nd enters the CL QR3, the Scottish Cup winners enter direct into the Europa League group stages, 3rd in the league enters the 3rd round and 4th enters the 2nd round. For a 2nd Champions League spot, Scotland has to average around 5.077 points per season for 5 years. That's around 20 qualification round wins per season, or if the League winner reaches the Champions League group stages and win 2 games, we'd only need around 12 qualification round wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maroonblood22 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 The match results have a bigger effect on Scotland's ranking to determine how many European places we get and what rounds our clubs enter. Aberdeen's loss in Luxembourg and Celtic's loss in Gibraltar has cost Scotland 0.500 points. It cost each of Scotland's clubs 0.100 points. Scotland was ranked 25th last season, the country earned 2.750 points in 11/12, which we'll lose once this season's points are added. So far this season we've earned 1.125 points. We need to be improving on the 2.750 to progress. If we drop below 25th, there's a chance depending on a number of complicated factors that all 3 of Scotland's Europa League entrants will enter directly into QR1. If we can climb into the top 17, we will have a team entering the 1st, the 2nd and the 3rd qualifying rounds, the top 15 would mean 2nd enters the Champions League, the Cup winner and 3rd enters the Europa League 3rd round and 4th place enters the 2nd round. Top 12 should be a long term goal for the SPFL, the Scottish Champions enter the Champions League group stages direct, 2nd enters the CL QR3, the Scottish Cup winners enter direct into the Europa League group stages, 3rd in the league enters the 3rd round and 4th enters the 2nd round. For a 2nd Champions League spot, Scotland has to average around 5.077 points per season for 5 years. That's around 20 qualification round wins per season, or if the League winner reaches the Champions League group stages and win 2 games, we'd only need around 12 qualification round wins. Outstanding Statto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watt-Zeefuik Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 The match results have a bigger effect on Scotland's ranking to determine how many European places we get and what rounds our clubs enter. Aberdeen's loss in Luxembourg and Celtic's loss in Gibraltar has cost Scotland 0.500 points. It cost each of Scotland's clubs 0.100 points. Scotland was ranked 25th last season, the country earned 2.750 points in 11/12, which we'll lose once this season's points are added. So far this season we've earned 1.125 points. We need to be improving on the 2.750 to progress. If we drop below 25th, there's a chance depending on a number of complicated factors that all 3 of Scotland's Europa League entrants will enter directly into QR1. If we can climb into the top 17, we will have a team entering the 1st, the 2nd and the 3rd qualifying rounds, the top 15 would mean 2nd enters the Champions League, the Cup winner and 3rd enters the Europa League 3rd round and 4th place enters the 2nd round. Top 12 should be a long term goal for the SPFL, the Scottish Champions enter the Champions League group stages direct, 2nd enters the CL QR3, the Scottish Cup winners enter direct into the Europa League group stages, 3rd in the league enters the 3rd round and 4th enters the 2nd round. For a 2nd Champions League spot, Scotland has to average around 5.077 points per season for 5 years. That's around 20 qualification round wins per season, or if the League winner reaches the Champions League group stages and win 2 games, we'd only need around 12 qualification round wins. Do I understand it right that 4 Europa group stage wins plus 12 qualification round wins would also do the trick? That EL group stages are worth half of what the CL group stages are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Statto Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 Do I understand it right that 4 Europa group stage wins plus 12 qualification round wins would also do the trick? That EL group stages are worth half of what the CL group stages are? Points for CL and EL wins/draws are the same, the only difference is you get 4 bonus points for a team reaching the CL group stages, divided by the number of participating clubs from your association (4), meaning 1 point added to Scotland's coefficient if our league's Champions make the CL group stages. The country gets nothing for a club participating in the EL group stages (but the individual clubs do). Countries also receive 5 bonus points (1.250) if a club reaches the CL last-16 and 1 point (0.250) per round from the Quarters, Semis and Final of both CL and EL. It's only the qualification round win/draw points that are halved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daveandal Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Points for CL and EL wins/draws are the same, the only difference is you get 4 bonus points for a team reaching the CL group stages, divided by the number of participating clubs from your association (4), meaning 1 point added to Scotland's coefficient if our league's Champions make the CL group stages. The country gets nothing for a club participating in the EL group stages (but the individual clubs do). Countries also receive 5 bonus points (1.250) if a club reaches the CL last-16 and 1 point (0.250) per round from the Quarters, Semis and Final of both CL and EL. It's only the qualification round win/draw points that are halved. Cheers Stato. As others have said your work is greatly appreciated. You make an over complicated system easy (well easier lol) to understand. A top 15 place shouldn't be unrealistic but means, IMO, the same teams qualifying for Europe and exploiting their co efficients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watt-Zeefuik Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Points for CL and EL wins/draws are the same, the only difference is you get 4 bonus points for a team reaching the CL group stages, divided by the number of participating clubs from your association (4), meaning 1 point added to Scotland's coefficient if our league's Champions make the CL group stages. The country gets nothing for a club participating in the EL group stages (but the individual clubs do). Countries also receive 5 bonus points (1.250) if a club reaches the CL last-16 and 1 point (0.250) per round from the Quarters, Semis and Final of both CL and EL. It's only the qualification round win/draw points that are halved. Thank you. No idea how anyone keeps track of all of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey1874 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Yes, this is all really interesting Scottish football could do with talking about this. Counting stuff helps achieve results in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickycameron98 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 If we should progress on Thursday.. when do we find out if we are home or away next Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferryjambo99 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 If we should progress on Thursday.. when do we find out if we are home or away next Thursday? We've been drawn to play at home first. The only way I can see that changing is if hibs and ourselves both go through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickycameron98 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 We've been drawn to play at home first. The only way I can see that changing is if hibs and ourselves both go throughcheers! Annoying how little time they give fans to prepare for these European nights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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