Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[Nookie Bear]

I feel it's time to add something to debate (hopefully). Firstly, ill set my stall out. Im an ex-pat and don't have a vote (and checked that box in the poll), i do, however, still have 2 children in full time education in Scotland and ergo have a vested interest in this campaign.

 

If you had asked me my position 2 years ago, i would have said nice idea, but it's probably not practical and i don't think the people of Scotland will go for it anyway. Like many, i waited and watched the campaigns unfold.

 

I have several points to make:-

 

1. I find it frustrating how poor the No campaign has been. For the most part they focussed very heavily on the currency issue (i'm not trivialising this point) and pushed and pushed and pushed Salmond to declare his intent. When he did, their response, was ehh sorry not going to happen. What i find annoying about this, is that the Yes campaign are continually being criticised for not answering specific questions, hardly surprising, when you consider that all the BT side have to do is say, no we won't agree to that so what are you going to do now. Also, it is in effect Salmond showing his hand before negotiations begin (assuming a win).

 

2. I am very concerned about the media bias and potentially Westminster using it's political clout (external to BT) to influence countries, businesses etc.. How deep this goes i don't know, but i find myself becoming more and more suspicious. I read the Scotsman statement this morning and laughed out loud. Apparently, they don't do irony. At the end of the statement they clearly state that they made this decision not out of fear but out of balancing risks against benefits. Only problem is they don't mention any benefits in the article, only risks !!!

 

3. I find it surprising that Salmond has not done more to try and engage big businesses to his cause (perhaps he has and failed, i don't know). Anyone with a vote would be crazy to dismiss the opinions of big business (SL, BP etc..). Not that i am suggesting it should be your main driver for decision, but it should be a concern.

 

4. My final point is on Oil and Gas and more specifically on Ian Woods review, has anyone read it? I have and whilst it certainly poses serious questions about the future, it is not all doom and gloom. Im not sure if it's in the rules to post a link to it or not, so i will await the MODS response on this. Section 2.2 makes for very interesting reading.

 

I guess what all this adds up to is, if i was voting, I would be seriously tempted to vote yes now, not because i think Salmond has particularly answered all the questions, more because the BT campaign is in such disarray they either a. don't care or b. don't have a very strong argument.

 

A good post. Points 1 and 3 are especially interesting.

 

I think it has been difficult from Day One to promote a 'NO' message as it is, by definition, a negative message. It has also been very easy for YES to cherry pick many aspects of modern Britain which are wrong and propose that this will be different in an Independent Scotland, without necessarily having to prove they can (until it is too late, of course).

 

For Point 3, Salmond seems to have distanced himself from these major companies. There was (is?) a group of major Edinburgh businessmen who used to meet regularly with the Scottish government to discuss the referendum so either Salmond has backed away from this, given up on them, or believes they are bluffing. Salmond should be a lot closer to thesepeople, no matter how unpalatable that might be for him and the YES supporters.

[Stuart Lyon]

Serge your comment included the words "Hopefully the same will happen for the nation." That's the problem the SNP White Paper is full of hope and aspirations but little substance. Difficult to understand why people are prepared to risk the unknown consequences of voting Yes and endangering the themselves and their families.

[jambo1185]

I had missed Salmond comparing Scottish independence referendum to the first free elections in South Africa. What is this man on? No wonder Nicola (who I have a great deal of respect for) is being pushed increasingly forward.

 

One week to go guys!

Edited September 11, 2014 by jambo1185

[missed98]

A good post. Points 1 and 3 are especially interesting.

 

I think it has been difficult from Day One to promote a 'NO' message as it is, by definition, a negative message. It has also been very easy for YES to cherry pick many aspects of modern Britain which are wrong and propose that this will be different in an Independent Scotland, without necessarily having to prove they can (until it is too late, of course).

 

For Point 3, Salmond seems to have distanced himself from these major companies. There was (is?) a group of major Edinburgh businessmen who used to meet regularly with the Scottish government to discuss the referendum so either Salmond has backed away from this, given up on them, or believes they are bluffing. Salmond should be a lot closer to thesepeople, no matter how unpalatable that might be for him and the YES supporters.

 

I don't disagree with the difficulties of NO, but for instance, why does Devo-Max only come up 2 weeks before the vote. I'm pretty sure if BT said 18 months ago, we have a plan for Devo-Max and we'll discuss it with your over the next 18 months, they would have a much stronger argument. Why didn't they focus on what UK will do for Scotland in the future? All they have seemed to do is attack Salmond and refute anything he says. Im no fan of Salmond by the way (although he is a very clever politician).

 

On the business point, i agree 100%, it MAY come back to haunt Salmond....

[jambo1185]

Whilst the moving of HQ May not be a big jobs risk, it will hurt corporation tax receipts will it not? Which will be pretty problematic if we are talking about big(ish) players in our economy (even if we are not a big market for them, e.g. RBS only having 4% of its retail and small business loan book to Scottish customers according to the Telegraph).

Edited September 11, 2014 by jambo1185

[john5698]

Serge your comment included the words "Hopefully the same will happen for the nation." That's the problem the SNP White Paper is full of hope and aspirations but little substance. Difficult to understand why people are prepared to risk the unknown consequences of voting Yes and endangering the themselves and their families.

Stuart, I agree wholehearedly with you, the vote is meant to be about independence, the wife was telling me about someone who works for her who's mother said she would rather live in a cardboard box than have to be run by the English(hopefully she does not get her wish )

[Nookie Bear]

I don't disagree with the difficulties of NO, but for instance, why does Devo-Max only come up 2 weeks before the vote. I'm pretty sure if BT said 18 months ago, we have a plan for Devo-Max and we'll discuss it with your over the next 18 months, they would have a much stronger argument. Why didn't they focus on what UK will do for Scotland in the future? All they have seemed to do is attack Salmond and refute anything he says. Im no fan of Salmond by the way (although he is a very clever politician).

 

On the business point, i agree 100%, it MAY come back to haunt Salmond....

 

Yeah, the recent intervention of the main leaders has been embarrassing tbh. All they had to do was make regular references to Scotland and it's recovering economy (i'm sure there will be some stats out there that show this!) and keep digging away at Salmond.

 

Also beginning to think a Cameron/Salmond debate may have been worthwhile.

[BoJack Horseman]

""If I see the word 'scaremongering' used on more time in response to people's honest and very real worries I will throw a hissy fit my children would be proud of," another user said. "'m so utterly sick of it.""

Mums net give Salmond a good shooing

http://www.telegraph...t-backlash.html

 

First line from that article... "Voting for independence is like stepping in front of a bus, Alistair Darling said last night"

 

What even is that, if not trying to instil fear in voters?

[missed98]

Yeah, the recent intervention of the main leaders has been embarrassing tbh. All they had to do was make regular references to Scotland and it's recovering economy (i'm sure there will be some stats out there that show this!) and keep digging away at Salmond.

 

Also beginning to think a Cameron/Salmond debate may have been worthwhile.

 

I think Salmond would have crushed him, which is why he avoided it.

[BoJack Horseman]

No voters, you're clearly concerned about Scotland's welfare in the result of independence. What exactly is your "worst case scenario"? What are you afraid of? And I don't mean the economy as a whole, I mean what changes do you envisage in your own life that makes you so afraid?

[Swarlos]

 

 

 

 

Chief exec has apparently written to all staff indicating there will not be a significant shift of jobs to London.

 

Will find out shortly then.

[OBE]

Whilst the moving of HQ May not be a big jobs risk, it will hurt corporation tax receipts will it not? Which will be pretty problematic if we are talking about big(ish) players in our economy (even if we are not a big market for them, e.g. RBS only having 4% of its retail and small business loan book to Scottish customers according to the Telegraph).

 

 

As the Hearts song goes, "sometimes go down aye go back up" In a flourishing independent Scotland?

[EIEIO]

Slightly off topic I think the Labour party in both GB and Scotland has lost the last shreds of credibility by aligning itself with the Tories and the banks.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Slightly off topic I think the Labour party in both GB and Scotland has lost the last shreds of credibility by aligning itself with the Tories and the banks.

How precisely has it done that?

[ArcticJambo]

I don't disagree with the difficulties of NO, but for instance, why does Devo-Max only come up 2 weeks before the vote. I'm pretty sure if BT said 18 months ago, we have a plan for Devo-Max and we'll discuss it with your over the next 18 months, they would have a much stronger argument. Why didn't they focus on what UK will do for Scotland in the future? All they have seemed to do is attack Salmond and refute anything he says. Im no fan of Salmond by the way (although he is a very clever politician).

 

On the business point, i agree 100%, it MAY come back to haunt Salmond....

 

It's disrespectful. Of course it's political discourse; not wanting to show your hand. Bartering of sorts Only problem is we're not haggling over a fez in Marrakesh. In fact it's blatantly taking the piss.

[Boris]

How precisely has it done that?

 

Pay attention Geoff!

[doctor jambo]

No voters, you're clearly concerned about Scotland's welfare in the result of independence. What exactly is your "worst case scenario"? What are you afraid of? And I don't mean the economy as a whole, I mean what changes do you envisage in your own life that makes you so afraid?

 

Several actually

1- no fiscal stability

2- being forced into the Euro

3-Being run by the current crop of Scottish politicians

4 - An increasing left wing swing with no opposition to speak of- higher taxes, higher benefits bills ( ie tax and spend)

5- job flight

6- capital flight

7- house market collapse (negative equity trap)

8- for myself personally loss of our central regulation- the GMC- if as a profession we lose the "UK" - and same goes for nurses and midwives etc- what then- the UK qualifications allow us to work all over the world- we have special and almost unique status in that- if that goes we are trapped in this country

[Optimus Prime]

True, apart from the cuts they've already made (I worked for the parent at the height of the fun).

 

The key issue for a future Scottish government here is not the move of registered offices. It is the loss of the potential corporate taxes.

 

On corporation tax would it not be a wiser move to see what the tax system is within an independent Scotland before making kneejerk statements about moving out?

[DETTY29]

When can RBS stop offsetting corporate tax payments against previous losses?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

On corporation tax would it not be a wiser move to see what the tax system is within an independent Scotland before making kneejerk statements about moving out?

Who has been kneejerk?

 

The FS companies have regulations to adhere to and the oil companies will still be paying royalties to a Scottish Treasury.

[EIEIO]

By it's hand in hand participation in BT, its failure to engage with working people face to face preferring to use the media.

[BoJack Horseman]

Several actually

1- no fiscal stability

2- being forced into the Euro

3-Being run by the current crop of Scottish politicians

4 - An increasing left wing swing with no opposition to speak of- higher taxes, higher benefits bills ( ie tax and spend)

5- job flight

6- capital flight

7- house market collapse (negative equity trap)

8- for myself personally loss of our central regulation- the GMC- if as a profession we lose the "UK" - and same goes for nurses and midwives etc- what then- the UK qualifications allow us to work all over the world- we have special and almost unique status in that- if that goes we are trapped in this country

 

I've seen all those before. I meant your personal every day life. What did you do yesterday that you don't think you'd be able to do in an independent Scotland?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Pay attention Geoff!

Seriously, Labour = unionist party

 

Conservative = unionist party

 

Are there acceptable and unacceptable bipartisan approaches? Should Labour have opposed John Major kicking off the Northern Ireland peace process by this daft logic?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

By it's hand in hand participation in BT, its failure to engage with working people face to face preferring to use the media.

Funny. I thought Skelator Murphy was getting on soapboxes. I must have been mistaken.

[doctor jambo]

I've seen all those before. I meant your personal every day life. What did you do yesterday that you don't think you'd be able to do in an independent Scotland?

 

Take a tenner out a cash machine?

[Optimus Prime]

Who has been kneejerk?

 

The FS companies have regulations to adhere to and the oil companies will still be paying royalties to a Scottish Treasury.

 

And i assume they'll follow those same regulations when/if we have a referendum regarding pulling out the EU? Afterall it's just their customers and shareholders they are looking after.

[Boris]

Seriously, Labour = unionist party

 

Conservative = unionist party

 

Are there acceptable and unacceptable bipartisan approaches? Should Labour have opposed John Major kicking off the Northern Ireland peace process by this daft logic?

 

I was referring more to New Labour's "third way" i.e. Tory wet!

[Swarlos]

No voters, you're clearly concerned about Scotland's welfare in the result of independence. What exactly is your "worst case scenario"? What are you afraid of? And I don't mean the economy as a whole, I mean what changes do you envisage in your own life that makes you so afraid?

 

The risk of my girlfriend losing her job at RBS HQ and changes and uncertainties with mortgages making it harder for us to get on the propery ladder.

Is that enough reason?

[hmfc_liam06]

I think Salmond would have crushed him, which is why he avoided it.

 

I think it would have descended into farce, which is why he avoided it.

[missed98]

I think it would have descended into farce, which is why he avoided it.

 

Whether people like it or not, Salmond is a decent orator and debater, Cameron isn't. Irrespective of the issues, the facts etc.. Salmond would probably crush him in a debate.

[BoJack Horseman]

The risk of my girlfriend losing her job at RBS HQ and changes and uncertainties with mortgages making it harder for us to get on the propery ladder.

Is that enough reason?

 

Those are legitimate fears yeah, but I wouldn't say they were unique to an independent Scotland.

[Boris]

Would any of the people voting NO, consider moving from Scotland should it become independent?

 

I don't mean that in an abusive way or anything, but if you know it would be that bad, would it be bad enough for you to start the moving process on 19th Sept?

 

I'd hope you wouldn't and would end up pleasantly surprised.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

And i assume they'll follow those same regulations when/if we have a referendum regarding pulling out the EU? Afterall it's just their customers and shareholders they are looking after.

There is no single market in financial services so it is moot.

[EIEIO]

Funny. I thought Skelator Murphy was getting on soapboxes. I must have been mistaken.

No just fooled by media coverage. Large public meetings in village and town halls all over Scotland mostly by yes campaign occasionally joint if a no speaker can be found - harder than you think as they don't as a rule like unscripted events.

[IMac]

Would any of the people voting NO, consider moving from Scotland should it become independent?

 

I don't mean that in an abusive way or anything, but if you know it would be that bad, would it be bad enough for you to start the moving process on 19th Sept?

 

I'd hope you wouldn't and would end up pleasantly surprised.

 

I will likely be out of a job. I don't want to leave but if I have to move for work that is what I will do.

[Chris Benoit]

Slightly off topic I think the Labour party in both GB and Scotland has lost the last shreds of credibility by aligning itself with the Tories and the banks.

 

 

They lost their credibility long ago IMO

[Stuart Lyon]

As did the SNP

[The Mighty Thor]

Not quite....

 

Also, an alliance of companies was formed to build the warships, BAE, Babcocks and Thales amongst the bigger ones, all of whom employ thousands of Scottish workers. The MOD are paying those companies to build the carriers thereby helping the Scottish economy...so I don't quite follow what you mean.

What i mean is that those are tendered contracts. they are not guaranteed scottish jobs. They could easily have been built at Portsmouth.

 

We have no guaranteed MOD jobs in Scotland. Not a single one.

[OmiyaHearts]

My job would be at risk following a Yes vote. Still voting Yes though, if I lose it I'll just get another job paying the same crap money I'm on just now.

[Thunderstruck]

By it's hand in hand participation in BT, its failure to engage with working people face to face preferring to use the media.

 

Remind me what happened when a key member of BT took it upon himself to get out and meet the "working people".

Edited September 11, 2014 by Thunderstruck

[Nookie Bear]

Would any of the people voting NO, consider moving from Scotland should it become independent?

 

I don't mean that in an abusive way or anything, but if you know it would be that bad, would it be bad enough for you to start the moving process on 19th Sept?

 

I'd hope you wouldn't and would end up pleasantly surprised.

 

Like you living under the Tories, you have to accept it and get on with it...and fight from within

 

It's not as if the world will collapse on 19th Sep if YES win and any change (negative or otherwise) will be gradual. It just depends on how it affects me and my family but I cannot see me leaving unless it is particularly drastic and I have no other option.

[Templeton Peck]

No just fooled by media coverage. Large public meetings in village and town halls all over Scotland mostly by yes campaign occasionally joint if a no speaker can be found - harder than you think as they don't as a rule like unscripted events.

 

Public meeting in South Queensferry last week. One Better Together campaigner called off sick. Tory Councillor Lindsay Paterson took the stage herself and quoted figures from The Morning Star then accused everyone in the crowd of being YES supporters

[doctor jambo]

Would any of the people voting NO, consider moving from Scotland should it become independent?

 

I don't mean that in an abusive way or anything, but if you know it would be that bad, would it be bad enough for you to start the moving process on 19th Sept?

 

I'd hope you wouldn't and would end up pleasantly surprised.

 

No, I love this country. However I would move all our savings , and the kids savings, and our pensions down south.

Its one thing hoping all will be well, its entirely another watching a lifetimes graft being eroded, and the funds to give our kids the best start we can being devalued is not something I would wish.

We would also keep our UK passports.

Many other middle class voters are feeling likewise but we are generally too embarassed to vocalise it - being middle class in Scotland is shameful- Scotland is left wing socailist, fair and just seemingly!

THere is very real risk of massive capital flight - and its not from big businesses either

[jambo1185]

 

 

Seriously, Labour = unionist party

 

Conservative = unionist party

 

Are there acceptable and unacceptable bipartisan approaches? Should Labour have opposed John Major kicking off the Northern Ireland peace process by this daft logic?

 

Spot on. It's completely ridiculous. If they weren't campaigning side by side everyone would have moaned too.

 

I don't hear very many people bleating on and on and on about the greens getting into bed with the SNP (who it's well known they don't like) and supporting a fossil fuel based economy.

 

That's because just like the Greens have their own vision of an independent Scotland, Labour and Tory have their own vision for the UK. That doesn't prohibit them for campaigning together to keep Scotland in the union.

[Thunderstruck]

 

 

Whether people like it or not, Salmond is a decent orator and debater, Cameron isn't. Irrespective of the issues, the facts etc.. Salmond would probably crush him in a debate.

 

Salmond is not a debater, he is at his best when shouting down opponents as shown by the two debates. In the first, he tried the softer approach with reasoned points and failed. In the second, he reverted to type with the result that the "debate" was a fiasco and nothing of substance was discussed.

 

 

[rossthejambo]

Said this in the vote thread yesterday but it was removed so sticking it in here, I think the BT parties have made a mistake in not allowing Devo Max to be on the ballot paper, their arrogance at that point that we'd not vote Yes might cost them.

 

Now they're scrambling to offer us more powers, if they'd offered these from the outset the Yes vote would be halved IMO.

[flecktimus]

Remind me what happened when a key member of BT took it upon himself to get out and meet the "working people".

 

The same as Jim Sillars and i don't condone either. One got media coverage for 4 days the other one got on with canvassing.

[missed98]

Salmond is not a debater, he is at his best when shouting down opponents as shown by the two debates. In the first, he tried the softer approach with reasoned points and failed. In the second, he reverted to type with the result that the "debate" was a fiasco and nothing of substance was discussed.

 

That might be your opinion, but he won it pretty convincingly according to the poll.

[DETTY29]

 

 

Take a tenner out a cash machine?

If you have sent all your money to England, you might have to pay a levy, 20%, to take it out.

 

[BoJack Horseman]

Said this in the vote thread yesterday but it was removed so sticking it in here, I think the BT parties have made a mistake in not allowing Devo Max to be on the ballot paper, their arrogance at that point that we'd not vote Yes might cost them.

 

Now they're scrambling to offer us more powers, if they'd offered these from the outset the Yes vote would be halved IMO.

 

I read recently that the Edinburgh agreement stipulates that neither party can introduce potential changes that could influence voters within 28 days of the referendum. Is scrambling to offer us more powers not illegal at this point? Postal voters have already started locking their vote in.