Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[i wish jj was my dad]

6 hours ago, Ked said:

The beautiful irony.

 

Fair comment and all that but he'll be all confused wondering what a domestic appliance for removing wrinkles from clothes has to do with dafties like him. 

[manaliveits105]

26 minutes ago, i wish jj was my dad said:

Fair comment and all that but he'll be all confused wondering what a domestic appliance for removing wrinkles from clothes has to do with dafties like him. 

Stay on the hook guffy 

indy is just round the corner 

[i wish jj was my dad]

2 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

Stay on the hook guffy 

indy is just round the corner 

Keep up the bottery. You'll be  re-programmed shortly. 

[The Mighty Thor]

Talking about central banks and as predicted yesterday 'austerity on steroids'

 

Better together 👍

[Taffin]

It's sad that the main argument for independence now seems to be "well, it's less shit than Westminster".

 

[BlueRiver]

57 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Talking about central banks and as predicted yesterday 'austerity on steroids'

 

Better together 👍

 

That would be the same BoE setting monetary policy for an indy Scotland for an an unspecified amount of time would it? How would Scotland's fiscal plans get around this? 

[Japan Jambo]

25 minutes ago, Taffin said:

It's sad that the main argument for independence now seems to be "well, it's less shit than Westminster".

 

 

not sure that's true either, can't even pockle without getting caught.

[AyrJambo]

20 minutes ago, Taffin said:

It's sad that the main argument for independence now seems to be "well, it's less shit than Westminster".

 

 

Wouldn't say that was the main argument but I know what you mean

There's no vision being offered by the pro-independence parties (although nor is there any vision offered by unionism)

It's all been reduced to arguments about % points on waiting lists or who is most corrupt or what deals can be done to retain power

Sad indeed

[The Mighty Thor]

14 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

That would be the same BoE setting monetary policy for an indy Scotland for an an unspecified amount of time would it? How would Scotland's fiscal plans get around this? 

I think the point yesterday was that we'd be at the mercy of a central bank implementing fiscal policy and not in control. It would appear that would be just like the Chancellor of the Exchequer then?

[BlueRiver]

8 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I think the point yesterday was that we'd be at the mercy of a central bank implementing fiscal policy and not in control. It would appear that would be just like the Chancellor of the Exchequer then?

 

The central bank implements monetary policy. 

 

It is independent from the government however from the post you've shared Reeves would at least be able to "challenge this head on". What sway or care would the Scottish treasury be able to exert over a foreign bank during the "temporary" period of sterlingisation? The BoE wouldn't even give a slight care for Scotland in any of their MPCC meetings.  

[The Real Maroonblood]

40 minutes ago, AyrJambo said:

 

Wouldn't say that was the main argument but I know what you mean

There's no vision being offered by the pro-independence parties (although nor is there any vision offered by unionism)

It's all been reduced to arguments about % points on waiting lists or who is most corrupt or what deals can be done to retain power

Sad indeed

Precisely.

Politics across the UK is a shit show.

[The Mighty Thor]

34 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

The central bank implements monetary policy. 

 

It is independent from the government however from the post you've shared Reeves would at least be able to "challenge this head on". What sway or care would the Scottish treasury be able to exert over a foreign bank during the "temporary" period of sterlingisation? The BoE wouldn't even give a slight care for Scotland in any of their MPCC meetings.  

Your post implies that they give a care for the rUK in their MPCC deliberations or indeed any of their other deliberations. 

 

Reeves may ' challenege them head on', most likely she will not. So the UK Gov has no input into monetary policy either? By implication Hunt/Reeves may or may not be able to exert 'sway' on the BoE but that's as far as it goes as its an independent body?

 

So no change then?

 

 

[Taffin]

1 hour ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

not sure that's true either, can't even pockle without getting caught.

 

It seems to be the gist of it I'm getting from reading this thread. I'm sure outside this bubble there's more to it I guess. Argument seems to go:

 

Supporter - "we'd be able to do of x,y,z"

Opponent - "show me proof of that"

Supporter - "well, it would be better than (insert something shit about the union)" 

 

It's all redundant anyway, it's not going to happen for decades now imo. 

 

1 hour ago, AyrJambo said:

 

Wouldn't say that was the main argument but I know what you mean

There's no vision being offered by the pro-independence parties (although nor is there any vision offered by unionism)

It's all been reduced to arguments about % points on waiting lists or who is most corrupt or what deals can be done to retain power

Sad indeed

 

Yeh. That's a better summary.

[BlueRiver]

14 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Your post implies that they give a care for the rUK in their MPCC deliberations or indeed any of their other deliberations. 

 

Reeves may ' challenege them head on', most likely she will not. So the UK Gov has no input into monetary policy either? By implication Hunt/Reeves may or may not be able to exert 'sway' on the BoE but that's as far as it goes as its an independent body?

 

So no change then?

 

 

 

They do. Just because Murphy or the government of the day disagrees with the policy decisions taken by the independent Bank of England doesn't mean they only govern for their own interests. 

 

Westminster could always remove their independence if they wished to be radical however this is the way of the world in a lot of democracies. 

 

If you'd be happy with a foreign central bank taking decisions on currency purely for the benefit of a foreign country that's fine. One man's blog post doesn't change that they make their decisions with the whole of the UK taken into account. One government's disagreement with their course of action doesn't do this either. Unless you think the Treasury is the sole arbiter of what is the "correct" path. 

[The Mighty Thor]

27 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

They do. Just because Murphy or the government of the day disagrees with the policy decisions taken by the independent Bank of England doesn't mean they only govern for their own interests. 

 

Westminster could always remove their independence if they wished to be radical however this is the way of the world in a lot of democracies. 

 

If you'd be happy with a foreign central bank taking decisions on currency purely for the benefit of a foreign country that's fine. One man's blog post doesn't change that they make their decisions with the whole of the UK taken into account. One government's disagreement with their course of action doesn't do this either. Unless you think the Treasury is the sole arbiter of what is the "correct" path. 

It depends on your view of the 'success' of Quantative Easing or indeed the more recent policy of interest rate increases to 'control' inflation. 

 

Its very much a rock and hard place discussion as you've got an unimaginative blunt instrument BoE on one side and an utterly useless HM Treasury following the bat-shit ideology du jour on the other.

 

But aye it couldn't be any worse. We'll find out when Reeves gets in and continues Hunt's policies whilst the BoE enforces Quantative Tightening

[AyrJambo]

20 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

That's not quite it.  The assets of the BoE are mainly made up of its deposits in other financial institutions and its loans to them.  The liabilities of the BoE are mainly made up of money other financial institutions have on deposit with it and loans made to it.  There's more or less a trillion of each, with a slight excess of assets of about 5 to 6 billion.  That's more or less what the balance sheets of all central banks look like, except that the amounts vary from country to country.

 

So it isn't as simple as saying that the net assets are £5 billion and doing a bank transfer for a percentage of that to the new central bank.  If you do the exercise fully, you should end up with a percentage of the assets and liabilities all transferring.  The net assets figure you'd end up with at the new central bank would in all likelihood be the same, but there would also be gross assets and liabilities behind the net assets.  Whatever loans and deposits the new central bank would have outside Scotland would usually be foreign currency assets (though not necessarily reserves), whereas loans and deposits to institutions in Scotland would be in the domestic currency.  Whatever loans and deposits institutions outside Scotland would have with the new central bank would usually be foreign currency liabilities, whereas loans and deposits made by institutions in Scotland would be domestic currency liabilities.

 

I'm aware that the Danish central bank holds foreign currency reserves (for reasons I mentioned to Blueriver a wee while ago).  I think currently it holds about £70 billion, probably denominated in euro for the most part.  If the DKK rises beyond its upper limit against the euro, the bank sells off its DKK reserves and buys euro instead to bring the price back down into line.  If the DKK falls below its lower limit against the euro, the bank sells off its euro reserves and buys DKK instead to bring the price back up into line.  I'm no doubt oversimplifying the process, but that's a reasonable description.  When there's a shift between DKK and euro reserves, the overall asset position of the bank doesn't change; it just gets shifted between currencies.  However, logically there is a cost to doing this.  The bank isn't buying and selling to profit from the best market rates, and it doesn't get to control the timing of its transactions.  At worst, the bank will regularly lose out on exchange rate fluctuations when it switches assets between the currencies, and at best it has to spend money on transaction and system costs.  Denmark is probably a good example of how things might operate if an independent Scotland was trying to run its own currency with a reasonably stable link to the value of sterling (or indeed the euro).

 

 

Apologies for not getting back sooner

Work is manic just now!!

 

I am no currency or international finance expert

I do think that an independent Scotland should have it's own currency from the outset

 

This link provides a kind of FAQ from the Scottish Currency Research Group

 

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2021/09/14/the-quick-guide-to-the-new-scottish-currency/

 

See also https://www.reservebank.scot/

 

I am neither advocating nor disputing what is said there but as someone who appears to have a handle on this stuff I'd appreciate your thoughts

Same goes for others who have posted on this specific topic

Edited May 8 by AyrJambo

[Malinga the Swinga]

33 minutes ago, AyrJambo said:

 

Apologies for not getting back sooner

Work is manic just now!!

 

I am no currency or international finance expert

I do think that an independent Scotland should have it's own currency from the outset

 

This link provides a kind of FAQ from the Scottish Currency Research Group

 

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2021/09/14/the-quick-guide-to-the-new-scottish-currency/

 

See also https://www.reservebank.scot/

 

I am neither advocating nor disputing what is said there but as someone who appears to have a handle on this stuff I'd appreciate your thoughts

Same goes for others who have posted on this specific topic

On my lunch for work and read the first link. First thought is that these guys need to do a far more analysis of setting up of new bank and provide guarantees, rather than supposition, as to currency.

They propose we keep 2 lots of bank accounts to avoid currency exchange rates, propose to swap over mortgages but only if people want to, peg rates but only for a short while till they know what they're doing. 

What about commercial loans? What about companies based all over UK, how do they plan years ahead with uncertainty over currency.

As soon as rate pegging stops, I'd predict a massive run on Scottish pound that would see it devalue quicker than anything we've seen for years. 

If that's the best they can come up with, it's no wonder they are keeping quiet.

[AyrJambo]

13 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

On my lunch for work and read the first link. First thought is that these guys need to do a far more analysis of setting up of new bank and provide guarantees, rather than supposition, as to currency.

They propose we keep 2 lots of bank accounts to avoid currency exchange rates, propose to swap over mortgages but only if people want to, peg rates but only for a short while till they know what they're doing. 

What about commercial loans? What about companies based all over UK, how do they plan years ahead with uncertainty over currency.

As soon as rate pegging stops, I'd predict a massive run on Scottish pound that would see it devalue quicker than anything we've seen for years. 

If that's the best they can come up with, it's no wonder they are keeping quiet.

 

Thanks for reading and responding 👍

 

I know setting up a new currency can be done - pretty sure Estonia did it in under 2 years

I'm just not expert enough in that field to advocate any particular methodology

[Hagar the Horrible]

I'm a business/systems analyst and a civil servant, every time you ask this question on a central bank, you get insults aimed at you by the uneducated, Its like asking any question on how Indy will work, not how you want it to work (Alex Salmond).  The thing is we need one from day one, so the transition needs to be looked at before any referendum, then implemented before the Scottish 4th July.

 

Starting a bank, I just don't know where to begin, but Property, yes we have that, Staffing takes about a year, setting up IT another 18 months after that.  Current banks, well the BoS is owned by the Lloyds group,  the RBS UK Gov and the Nat West, and the Clydesdale is owned by the Australian national bank, and along with Virgin Money the holding company CYBK uses that bank to licence the Virgin Bank.  I am sure will help

 

Other issues is we need one even to transition to the Euro, otherwise our own 'S£'pound could be worth 50p to an English one, or just as bad our 50sp is worth a couple of £, and we all head over the border to shop.

 

Problems are there to be solved and nothing is insurmountable, but we have to trust those who can deliver.  The SNP even if they won IndyRef v2.0 are just not capable of making it work.  It would be down to those who did not want it in the first place to make it work, we would all need to work together. Unless the Greens have all the made up pronouns with the skill set, but it is down to priority.  If the SNP wont put the cost of living first now, how can we seriously expect them to put that first in a sovereign state?

[Hagar the Horrible]

11 minutes ago, AyrJambo said:

 

Thanks for reading and responding 👍

 

I know setting up a new currency can be done - pretty sure Estonia did it in under 2 years

I'm just not expert enough in that field to advocate any particular methodology

The point I keep making and get insulted is nobody is, we have not done it before, It can be done  YES it can, but depending on who you speak to there are different views on how?  "it'll be OK on the night" wont cut it.

[BlueRiver]

30 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

On my lunch for work and read the first link. First thought is that these guys need to do a far more analysis of setting up of new bank and provide guarantees, rather than supposition, as to currency.

They propose we keep 2 lots of bank accounts to avoid currency exchange rates, propose to swap over mortgages but only if people want to, peg rates but only for a short while till they know what they're doing. 

What about commercial loans? What about companies based all over UK, how do they plan years ahead with uncertainty over currency.

As soon as rate pegging stops, I'd predict a massive run on Scottish pound that would see it devalue quicker than anything we've seen for years. 

If that's the best they can come up with, it's no wonder they are keeping quiet.

 

That aspect about the run was one that flagged up to me there. 

 

I'm curious how capital would be controlled in general to stop a lot of people simply moving it into safer currencies (I.e. Sterling) instantly. 

 

It isn't that these things aren't possible to navigate, it's that the potential pain in the short to mid-term could be quite hard hitting.  

 

I also find it a bit dismissive in that article that as only 30% of Scottish households have mortgages then it shouldn't be as big a concern. 30% of Scottish households is quite a large number. 

[Mikey1874]

Kate Forbes Deputy First Minister 

[Gundermann]

8 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

I'm a business/systems analyst and a civil servant, every time you ask this question on a central bank, you get insults aimed at you by the uneducated, Its like asking any question on how Indy will work, not how you want it to work (Alex Salmond).  The thing is we need one from day one, so the transition needs to be looked at before any referendum, then implemented before the Scottish 4th July.

 

Starting a bank, I just don't know where to begin, but Property, yes we have that, Staffing takes about a year, setting up IT another 18 months after that.  Current banks, well the BoS is owned by the Lloyds group,  the RBS UK Gov and the Nat West, and the Clydesdale is owned by the Australian national bank, and along with Virgin Money the holding company CYBK uses that bank to licence the Virgin Bank.  I am sure will help

 

Other issues is we need one even to transition to the Euro, otherwise our own 'S£'pound could be worth 50p to an English one, or just as bad our 50sp is worth a couple of £, and we all head over the border to shop.

 

Problems are there to be solved and nothing is insurmountable, but we have to trust those who can deliver.  The SNP even if they won IndyRef v2.0 are just not capable of making it work.  It would be down to those who did not want it in the first place to make it work, we would all need to work together. Unless the Greens have all the made up pronouns with the skill set, but it is down to priority.  If the SNP wont put the cost of living first now, how can we seriously expect them to put that first in a sovereign state?

 

 

Other people - academics and those with senior banking experience - such as Dr Iain Hardie would say different.

 

Others, like Icelandic judges, put the bankers in jail.

[BlueRiver]

6 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

The point I keep making and get insulted is nobody is, we have not done it before, It can be done  YES it can, but depending on who you speak to there are different views on how?  "it'll be OK on the night" wont cut it.

 

It's the put down of choice. Even scroll to yesterday when I asked a poster about how exactly BoE monetary policy is designed purely for the SE of England. You often get very little of substance in return.

 

"Well why can't we be" - very few of us have said we can't and are looking for answers beyond a hope and a prayer that it'll work itself out no problems. We have assets, we have loans, we have wages, we have families and all of these things take priority over a saltire on our passport. 

 

Although respect given to both AyrshireJambo and TheMightyThor for discussion points today. 

[BlueRiver]

3 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

Kate Forbes Deputy First Minister 

 

Oooft

[Hagar the Horrible]

Good start for the SNP with Forbes being deputy, that stops the Greens wagging the dog

[BlueRiver]

1 minute ago, Gundermann said:

 

 

Other people - academics and those with senior banking experience - such as Dr Iain Hardie would say different.

 

Others, like Icelandic judges, put the bankers in jail.

 

Whereas many other academics and people with senior banking experience point out the dangers of this move as well. 

 

**** knows what Icelandic judges have to do with literally anything but I'm sure you'd have the gulag set up, comrade. 

[Mikey1874]

Just now, Hagar the Horrible said:

Good start for the SNP with Forbes being deputy, that stops the Greens wagging the dog

 

Her statement also suggests focus on improving Government. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

3 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Good start for the SNP with Forbes being deputy, that stops the Greens wagging the dog

Yep 👍 

[BlueRiver]

2 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Good start for the SNP with Forbes being deputy, that stops the Greens wagging the dog

 

Interesting times ahead on a legislative front. 

 

Will the SNP potentially need unionist party votes to pass certain legislation now? How will many of their supporters react to them working with Toaries? 

[Hagar the Horrible]

The 2 words that strike fear into the everyday man is progressive and Fair,  Swinney has to unite a broad church, so his next appointment needs to be somebody that wants it all and now.  However with Forbes Indy is realistic, if they sort and focus on the needs of Scotland, not just the <50%.  Seriously play the long game, the short game has not worked, so tray something else.   Good start on day one by Swinney

[AyrJambo]

2 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

The 2 words that strike fear into the everyday man is progressive and Fair,  Swinney has to unite a broad church, so his next appointment needs to be somebody that wants it all and now.  However with Forbes Indy is realistic, if they sort and focus on the needs of Scotland, not just the <50%.  Seriously play the long game, the short game has not worked, so tray something else.   Good start on day one by Swinney

 

I thought those words were Wife and Mother-in law

[Hagar the Horrible]

Swinney does not want to be an interim FM, so work with the middle ground.  In England and across the UK  there is just a need for change, even if it is SKS.  In Scotland we also are calling out for change, the SNP have been in too long.  But here is the crux, we want change also at WM, so to get the Tory's out you vote for labour, that will work against the SNP, and for those wanting rid of the SNP, again it will be a vote for Labour.

 

Swinney needs to be decisive to hold on in power, while pacifying the radical elements,  tough job, glad it is not me 

[Hagar the Horrible]

2 minutes ago, AyrJambo said:

 

I thought those words were Wife and Mother-in law

at last beaten on a point, hats off sir...bravo

 

Just cant argue with real life

[Gundermann]

9 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

Whereas many other academics and people with senior banking experience point out the dangers of this move as well. 

 

**** knows what Icelandic judges have to do with literally anything but I'm sure you'd have the gulag set up, comrade. 

 

So basically, all those bankers and experts in banking, just squabble over the same froth... like us on a fitba forum?

[Hagar the Horrible]

Just now, Gundermann said:

 

So basically, all those bankers and experts in banking, just squabble over the same froth... like us on a fitba forum?

yeh pretty much it is like your God being Adam Smith on the Wealth of Nations, or Karl Marx on being all equal, but some are more equal than others.  Which is pretty much us lot

[Gundermann]

17 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Good start for the SNP with Forbes being deputy, that stops the Greens wagging the dog

 

Never mind Forbes and the Greens. What's Angela Rayner gonna say now about working with Elphicke? Or are Labour now 'the nasty party' to quote her?

[Hagar the Horrible]

1 minute ago, Gundermann said:

 

Never mind Forbes and the Greens. What's Angela Rayner gonna say now about working with Elphicke? Or are Labour now 'the nasty party' to quote her?

Lets be realistic, SKS is one hit wonder in the making, managing his own party is going to be hard as it is, With a conflict of interests here on border controls is going to be like the Johnny come lately changing the way you enjoy playing monopoly with your pals they way you have done it for years.  It wont end well.    It is the same argument different dressing room

[BlueRiver]

9 minutes ago, Gundermann said:

 

So basically, all those bankers and experts in banking, just squabble over the same froth... like us on a fitba forum?

 

If you can find me a couple of banking experts arguing that it'll be a seamless and easy transition without dangers in the short to medium term then fair. 

 

I wouldn't expect you will though as it is largely where the consensus is. 

 

No one is arguing that Scotland can't do it, instead they're arguing over the degree and length of danger associated with the most conventional routes. 

 

 

[That thing you do]

24 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

The 2 words that strike fear into the everyday man is progressive and Fair,  Swinney has to unite a broad church, so his next appointment needs to be somebody that wants it all and now.  However with Forbes Indy is realistic, if they sort and focus on the needs of Scotland, not just the <50%.  Seriously play the long game, the short game has not worked, so tray something else.   Good start on day one by Swinney

Ermm

 

Sturgeonism was the long game so what short game didn't work?

[JudyJudyJudy]

16 minutes ago, Gundermann said:

 

Never mind Forbes and the Greens. What's Angela Rayner gonna say now about working with Elphicke? Or are Labour now 'the nasty party' to quote her?

There’s a Labour thread for that . Stop the deflection 

Edited May 8 by JudyJudyJudy

[JudyJudyJudy]

12 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

one is arguing that Scotland can't do it, instead they're arguing over the degree and length of danger associated with the most conventional routes. 

 

 

Correct . It’s how Long the pain will last so is it worth it ? 

[Hagar the Horrible]

11 minutes ago, That thing you do said:

Ermm

 

Sturgeonism was the long game so what short game didn't work?

I saw it as grievance politics,make it fail, blame it on Westminster, She did not want a referendum though

[AyrJambo]

6 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

Correct . It’s how Long the pain will last so is it worth it ? 

 

Yes it is in my view

Especially considering the pain and uncertainty of remaining under the UK cosh

[JudyJudyJudy]

Just now, AyrJambo said:

 

Yes it is in my view

Especially considering the pain and uncertainty of remaining under the UK cosh

Better the devil you know ?

[Mikey1874]

 

[Hagar the Horrible]

Patrick Harvey says: many people will be concerned at Forbes new role!  she has quite starling social conservative views

 

probably if you wear a green rosette it is  concern,  But I would say Swinney has raised a flag so far and wont sit on the fence

 

I am hoping Swinney and Forbes will be the Ying to the Yang, Whereas Humza was just the ping pong ball between Harvey and Slater

[Lone Striker]

43 minutes ago, AyrJambo said:

 

Yes it is in my view

Especially considering the pain and uncertainty of remaining under the UK cosh

imo,  most of  the "pain & uncertainty"  episodes of  life for Scottish citizens of the UK have occurred within the last 25 years - and quite a few of those have been the result of global events such as 9/11,  wars, the  banking crisis, and Covid.     

 

More than half of that 25 years has seen an increasingly  reactionary & corrupt Tory Govt in charge  at Westminster, and a "progressive" SNP Govt in charge at Holyrood who've sailed close to the wind a few times in terms of integrity - whatever  "progressive" means, but it sound good.

 

As someone posted earlier, its a sad state of affairs when any future choice over a  constitutional decision depends on people's perception of  these 2, unless you're simply using basic emotion to decide.

 

 

[Australis]

When Kate Forbes stood against Regan and Yousless she said "that continuety wont cut it".

 

Funny how she forgets these thing so quickly at the offer of being 2nd in command.

 

More of the same constant lies to keep leading the donkeys on.

 

[Lone Striker]

7 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Patrick Harvey says: many people will be concerned at Forbes new role!  she has quite starling social conservative views

 

probably if you wear a green rosette it is  concern,  But I would say Swinney has raised a flag so far and wont sit on the fence

 

I am hoping Swinney and Forbes will be the Ying to the Yang, Whereas Humza was just the ping pong ball between Harvey and Slater

KF came a close 2nd to Humza a year ago.    Swinney's not daft   (he's a Jambo to prove it 😎)  -  he's bound to have recognised KF's competence as Finance Secretary, so its a very sensible move to bring her into the heart of Govt.

 

Harvie & Slater can gtf.