Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, hughesie27 said:

We have the £ right now so wouldn't be buying that and that is what we would use to buy whatever else we moved to. 

 

But isn't the pound underwritten by the bank of England?

In the event of independence what would happen to the pound notes and coins?

[hughesie27]

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

But isn't the pound underwritten by the bank of England?

In the event of independence what would happen to the pound notes and coins?

It is, what do you mean what would happen to them? They'd still exist, and still hold the same value that they do now (well currency fluctuations aside).

If Scotland was to adopt a new currency there would be a transitional period like there was when the Euro was created.

[JudyJudyJudy]

3 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Wee entrepreneurs in the making.

 

Fair points. However, would rUK also play nice if we chose to retain the Pound Sterling? I'm not sure they would do so, and previous comments from south have not painted a rosy cooperative picture (although these may have been issued in order to influence the independence debate).

 

Anyway, this chap appears to agree with you, albeit from a 10-year old article. https://iea.org.uk/blog/should-an-independent-scotland-keep-the-pound

 

When it comes down to it though, I'm not a financial or fiscal expert. I just feel that if an independent Scotland were to rejoin the EU, which I would like it to do, we should go balls-in.

 

 

 

[Dawnrazor]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Wee entrepreneurs in the making.

 

Fair points. However, would rUK also play nice if we chose to retain the Pound Sterling? I'm not sure they would do so, and previous comments from south have not painted a rosy cooperative picture (although these may have been issued in order to influence the independence debate).

 

Anyway, this chap appears to agree with you, albeit from a 10-year old article. https://iea.org.uk/blog/should-an-independent-scotland-keep-the-pound

 

When it comes down to it though, I'm not a financial or fiscal expert. I just feel that if an independent Scotland were to rejoin the EU, which I would like it to do, we should go balls-in.

 

 

Neither are about 99% of the Scottish population I recon! It's these questions that should've been answered in a fashion to convince the voters that it's ok, we don't need a currency, we can use x, y or z.

[hughesie27]

5 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

Good question 

That'll be a firm no on the showing conviction front then 🤣.

 

 

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, hughesie27 said:

It is, what do you mean what would happen to them? They'd still exist, and still hold the same value that they do now (well currency fluctuations aside).

If Scotland was to adopt a new currency there would be a transitional period like there was when the Euro was created.

What would happen to them, could go and buy a curry and a bottle of wine with my pounds after independence? Would the cash money have to be handed in to a bank and exchanged for what ever currency were going to use? A quick Google shows there are 1.5 billion in use on a daily basis, in Scotland, the coins I presume would be on top of that. 

[hughesie27]

1 minute ago, Dawnrazor said:

What would happen to them, could go and buy a curry and a bottle of wine with my pounds after independence? Would the cash money have to be handed in to a bank and exchanged for what ever currency were going to use? A quick Google shows there are 1.5 billion in use on a daily basis, in Scotland, the coins I presume would be on top of that. 

Like I said. Transitional period as there was with the introduction of the Euro.

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Neither are about 99% of the Scottish population I recon! It's these questions that should've been answered in a fashion to convince the voters that it's ok, we don't need a currency, we can use x, y or z.

 

Absolutely. There will always be bumps in the road that can't be planned for, but for independence to be achieved, questions like those you are asking need to be thoroughly answered, and in a way in which they can be understood by the lay person.

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, redjambo said:

 

Absolutely. There will always be bumps in the road that can't be planned for, but for independence to be achieved, questions like those you are asking need to be thoroughly answered, and in a way in which they can be understood by the lay person.

I'm definitely a "lay person" red, that's the rub, it just doesn't sound plausible, hughesie is putting his point across in a sensible manner, a rare change on this thread, but I just can't get it to stack up, my problem I concede. 

[Dawnrazor]

6 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Like I said. Transitional period as there was with the introduction of the Euro.

But the countries would have had an agreement with the owners of the euro, money would've been taken out of circulation and gradually swapped for the euro, that I get, but we'd have no agreement, we'd not be allowed to print or mint and have nothing to "swap" if you like, for the currency we were going to use.

I hope this makes sense!

[JudyJudyJudy]

15 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Neither are about 99% of the Scottish population I recon! It's these questions that should've been answered in a fashion to convince the voters that it's ok, we don't need a currency, we can use x, y or z.

It’s ok the other 1% are on this . No doubt they will be along tomorrow to dispense their knowledge . They are usually too busy on the toariez and Labour thread but do make appearances here now and then . 

[redjambo]

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

I'm definitely a "lay person" red, that's the rub, it just doesn't sound plausible, hughesie is putting his point across in a sensible manner, a rare change on this thread, but I just can't get it to stack up, my problem I concede. 

 

I don't quite get it either, to be honest, but I do know that Kosovo and Montenegro switched from using the DM to the Euro, albeit with the help of the ECB and other banks, and that various countries use the US dollar so it's definitely possible. I would like to see it explained what exactly we're going to do and how it will work. If I remember correctly, when we talked about using the pound sterling at the last referendum, the political spectrum down south told us "not a chance, matey!" so I feel that we've got more chance of the EU assisting us with any currency transition, and that is well within their capabilities for a country our size.

[redjambo]

4 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

I'm not averse to getting ourselves in tight with the Yooropeans. I just don't want to pay more for most of the stuff I buy, i.e. food.

 

Yup good call. I suppose an economy using two currencies in tandem would be out of the question?

[Dawnrazor]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I don't quite get it either, to be honest, but I do know that Kosovo and Montenegro switched from using the DM to the Euro, albeit with the help of the ECB and other banks, and that various countries use the US dollar so it's definitely possible. I would like to see it explained what exactly we're going to do and how it will work. If I remember correctly, when we talked about using the pound sterling at the last referendum, the political spectrum down south told us "not a chance, matey!" so I feel that we've got more chance of the EU assisting us with any currency transition, and that is well within their capabilities for a country our size.

Good points, it's the lack of a definitive plan that gets me, I'm a fairly simple Croc wearing man, I do a day's graft, I swap my labour, knowledge and experience for money, pound sterling, if I wasn't getting pound sterling I'd want to know what, where and why I was going to get, and if I was going to be out of pocket in the transition, I'd want concrete answers as to what was going into by bank account,I honestly don't think that's too much to ask for?

I concede it's not impossible, but I want to see in black and white what the answers were.

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, Jim_Duncan said:

 

Plenty evidence historically that this is workable (assume that's why the emoji?).

 

Maybe we need to think outside the box. The entire nation run on crypto. Perhaps even set up our own - The Croc?

Great idea 😉

[Ked]

1 hour ago, Dawnrazor said:

How?

How what mate?

[Dawnrazor]

1 minute ago, Ked said:

How what mate?

Did you not say there would be no transition?

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, Jim_Duncan said:

🤣

[BlueRiver]

17 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

I'm not averse to getting ourselves in tight with the Yooropeans. I just don't want to pay more for most of the stuff I buy, i.e. food.

 

That's a shitebag mentality. 

 

You should be willing to lose your job and starve so that your passport gets a wee saltire on it. 

 

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Did you not say there would be no transition?

That’ll  be a first in Scotland then 😎

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, JudyJudyJudy said:

That’ll  be a first in Scotland then 😎

Ooft!! 

[JudyJudyJudy]

Just now, BlueRiver said:

 

That's a shitebag mentality. 

 

You should be willing to lose your job and starve so that your passport gets a wee saltire on it. 

 

 

And feel smug and superior then you now live In a “ progressive “ country . 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Jim_Duncan said:

 

Plenty evidence historically that this is workable (assume that's why the emoji?).

 

Maybe we need to think outside the box. The entire nation run on crypto. Perhaps even set up our own - The Darien?

 

Nope, the emoji was because I thought it was a slightly bizarre suggestion. I hadn't done any research to see if it was doable or in fact had ever been done. Come to think of it, I've been in quite a few countries where businesses have been willing to accept different currencies from me as a tourist, and I can see that being scaleable nationally. I suppose the digital age makes it much more feasible.

 

The Darien - what could go wrong?

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

That's a shitebag mentality. 

 

You should be willing to lose your job and starve so that your passport gets a wee saltire on it. 

 

 

Ah well, there's the conversation fecked up. Blue River comes steaming in with his usual thoughtless "loud opinionated guy in the pub" shite.

[BlueRiver]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Ah well, there's the conversation fecked up. Blue River comes steaming in with his usual thoughtless "loud opinionated guy in the pub" shite.

 

😂 aye the conversation was close to cracking the issue  right enough. 

 

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Ah well, there's the conversation fecked up. Blue River comes steaming in with his usual thoughtless "loud opinionated guy in the pub" shite.

No it’s not he’s using humour to make a perfectly valid point 

[JudyJudyJudy]

Just now, BlueRiver said:

 

😂 aye the conversation was close to cracking the issue  right enough. 

 

 

😂😂😂 I thought it was nearly cracked ! Well it was definitely cracked 

[JudyJudyJudy]

On a serious note I recall from 2014 that the yes folks were saying they would just use the pound and didn’t need permission from the UK ie the Bank of England ? 

[BlueRiver]

Just now, JudyJudyJudy said:

😂😂😂 I thought it was nearly cracked ! Well it was definitely cracked 

 

Plenty of times I've tried to sensibly engage on this topic to be dragged down by folk with half a clue on multiple issues regarding legality of actions by the Scottish Parliament, viability of an independent Scottish economy based on sale of renewables or our food and drinks exports to be met with pish about how GERS is all made up and the usual pack of if we all believe hard enough indy will succeed pish 😂 

 

Waste of time. Skip back about 300 pages and nae doubt there's been the same merry go round discussion. 

[BlueRiver]

1 minute ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

On a serious note I recall from 2014 that the yes folks were saying they would just use the pound and didn’t need permission from the UK ie the Bank of England ? 

 

Which is correct, however not really a viable solution for the long term land of spunking streams of gold and diamonds based on exports of renewable energy that no one is capable of explaining the detail of in the short to medium term or (checking my notes here...)..oh aye...taxing our good exports...

[JudyJudyJudy]

3 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

Which is correct, however not really a viable solution for the long term land of spunking streams of gold and diamonds based on exports of renewable energy that no one is capable of explaining the detail of in the short to medium term or (checking my notes here...)..oh aye...taxing our good exports...

👍 

[JudyJudyJudy]

5 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

Plenty of times I've tried to sensibly engage on this topic to be dragged down by folk with half a clue on multiple issues regarding legality of actions by the Scottish Parliament, viability of an independent Scottish economy based on sale of renewables or our food and drinks exports to be met with pish about how GERS is all made up and the usual pack of if we all believe hard enough indy will succeed pish 😂 

 

Waste of time. Skip back about 300 pages and nae doubt there's been the same merry go round discussion. 

💯 ground hog day on this issue . 

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, hughesie27 said:

They buy it. Or get loaned it. Likely both as part of a currency union with the Central Bank of that nation.

 

 

Montenegro and Kosovo use the euro, but they are not members of the eurozone and they don't have a currency union or agreement with the EU.  They can't produce hard cash.

 

Four microstates use the euro by agreement with the EU, but all of those used either the franc, the peseta or the lire prior to the creation of the euro.  They (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican City) can produce cash.

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, Dawnrazor said:

 

So to get it loaned there must be some kind of agreement?

 

Kosovo was loaned €100 million so that it would have euro cash availability, yet it bizarrely doesn't have an agreement to use the euro.  

[BlueRiver]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

Kosovo was loaned €100 million so that it would have euro cash availability, yet it bizarrely doesn't have an agreement to use the euro.  

 

A political decision based on the way Kosovo is recognised internationally? 

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, Jim_Duncan said:

But wouldn't England/rUK continue to be our biggest export market? It's not as if Westminster isn't prone to shooting itself in the foot financially for short-term political gratification and/or spite. Us working in a different currency would give them just another excuse to cause issues in the event of independence. In the grand scheme of things, if we were to go it alone, we'd need them more than they'd need us. It would make sense to play nice for our own gain (and theirs, ultimately, I guess). Unless we build bridges to both Ireland and Denmark?

 

That, in effect, is why Ireland had to peg its currency to the pound at a rate of 1:1 for nearly 60 years.  It was also very costly; Ireland had to maintain 15% of GDP as sterling or other foreign currency reserves so that its central bank could do the trading needed to keep the currencies at level pegging.  Maintaining a small currency at level pegging with something like GBP or USD used to be very expensive, though these days it seems to be less so.  Panama's currency is directly linked to the dollar.  It used to maintain very high levels of USD reserves, but they are now considerably lower, though still about 7-8% of GDP.

[Ulysses]

2 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

A political decision based on the way Kosovo is recognised internationally? 

 

I think so.  The EU more or less looks the other way as far as the use of the euro in Kosovo and Montenegro goes.  They're small economies, and as long as they can't print cash they can't do any harm to the currency.

 

By the way, there's also a group of countries that are technically required to adopt the euro as soon as they meet the criteria for adoption, but the EU doesn't seem to be too pushed about those either.

[BlueRiver]

6 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

I think so.  The EU more or less looks the other way as far as the use of the euro in Kosovo and Montenegro goes.  They're small economies, and as long as they can't print cash they can't do any harm to the currency.

 

By the way, there's also a group of countries that are technically required to adopt the euro as soon as they meet the criteria for adoption, but the EU doesn't seem to be too pushed about those either.

 

Yep. Isn't Poland chief amongst that group at the moment? I feel like they've met the requirements or at least very close to having met them. Essentially a lot of the 2004 accession group are still outside the Eurozone despite having signed up to it? 

 

Memory seems to lead me to believe that Sweden had an opt-out similar to the UK. 

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, Jim_Duncan said:

With all that pegging going on, I hope whoever chairs the negotiations has plenty experience. Maybe ask the royals for advice on such delicate constitutional matters.

 

 

Like I said, 'tis an expensive business, so 'tis.   

[JudyJudyJudy]

9 hours ago, Jim_Duncan said:

With all that pegging going on, I hope whoever chairs the negotiations has plenty experience. Maybe ask the royals for advice on such delicate constitutional matters.

 

Jim please try and keep to the new spirit of this thread . It’s a grown up conversation about a very very serious subject . 
 

 

Spoiler

 

 

[Gundermann]

Interesting interview with John Curtice in the National on how devolution was viewed by Labour and the SNP. Sure, it's the Nat but Curtice doesn't do bias AFAIK.

 

Lord George Robertson though... 😄

 

Quote

“Labour’s offer was there will be a nice, lovely relationship between Edinburgh and London.

“The SNP offer was ‘we’ll stand up for the people of Scotland’.

“I think the SNP read devolution in the minds of the public much more accurately than Labour, and that’s a mistake Labour is still at risk of making even now.”

The 2011 campaign for Scottish Labour, Curtice (above) said, was “disastrous,” and was “symbolised” by then leader Iain Gray being hounded by campaigners in Glasgow city centre and forced to seek refuge in a Subway sandwich shop.

Curtice said: “Opinion clearly shifted [from Labour to the SNP] – you could feel it shifting in the last week, 10 days and the SNP got an overall majority.

“That was not what was supposed to happen.”

The additional member election system used at Holyrood is designed in such a way as to make a majority extremely difficult to gain.

 

Curtice added: “The SNP reputation in 2011 was ‘these guys have done alright, it’s not too bad, they seem to know what they’re doing’.”

He said voters were also swayed by the talent within the SNP ranks compared to that of Labour, which had been thinned by the loss of Dewar, who died in 2001, and others.

The polling guru concluded that one of the goals of devolution, as was expounded by Labour peer George Robertson before the Parliament was created, was to “kill nationalism stone dead”.

READ MORE: Karen Adam: John Swinney leading the SNP is not 'political continuity'

He added: “After 25 years, we’ve had 17 years of SNP Government, we’ve had a referendum – the result of which was higher levels of support for independence than there ever was beforehand – and now in the wake of Brexit support for independence is even higher.

“This country is just divided down the middle on it. This was not the devolution project.

"Although at the moment you can look at it and say the SNP is heading for trouble and the possibility of another independence referendum is a million miles away – and all that’s true – looking back on 25 years, if you told the SNP 25 years ago they would be worrying about losing 20 seats at Westminster, they’d bite your arm off.”

 

 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/24302533.john-curtice-snp-electoral-winners-25-years-devolution/

 

Edited May 7 by Gundermann

[The Mighty Thor]

12 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Montenegro and Kosovo use the euro, but they are not members of the eurozone and they don't have a currency union or agreement with the EU.  They can't produce hard cash.

 

Four microstates use the euro by agreement with the EU, but all of those used either the franc, the peseta or the lire prior to the creation of the euro.  They (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican City) can produce cash.

Probobaly apposite to mention that the people of Scotland already own a central bank, as do the people of England, Wales & Northern Ireland. 

[AyrJambo]

3 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Probobaly apposite to mention that the people of Scotland already own a central bank, as do the people of England, Wales & Northern Ireland. 

 

Correct

 

The Bank of England is not just "the bank of England"

It is the central bank of the UK

[Ulysses]

2 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Probobaly apposite to mention that the people of Scotland already own a central bank, as do the people of England, Wales & Northern Ireland. 

 

Probably also apposite to mention that if Scotland left, that wouldn't be the case, which is why posters are asking what the alternatives are.

 

It is one of the questions proponents of independence would be expected to address.

[The Mighty Thor]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

Probably also apposite to mention that if Scotland left, that wouldn't be the case, which is why posters are asking what the alternatives are.

 

It is one of the questions proponents of independence would be expected to address.

And indeed the unionists as to how they divest Scotland from its share of the organisations such as the BoE.

[BlueRiver]

4 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

And indeed the unionists as to how they divest Scotland from its share of the organisations such as the BoE.

 

It isn't really though. It's for your lot to put forward a sound basis for what our future currency arrangements would be. 

[AyrJambo]

15 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Probably also apposite to mention that if Scotland left, that wouldn't be the case, which is why posters are asking what the alternatives are.

 

It is one of the questions proponents of independence would be expected to address.

 

That depends on the manner of leaving

If the union is dissolved by the rescinding of a bilateral treaty, by one of the two signatories, does the UK continue to exist?

If it does, should the assets of the BofE be redistributed as @The Mighty Thor points out?

[BlueRiver]

Are we in this thread arguing for a minority stake in the BoE now upon independence?

[AyrJambo]

Just now, BlueRiver said:

Are we in this thread arguing for a minority stake in the BoE now upon independence?

 

No but the BofE is a UK asset like armed forces, embassies, buildings, equipment and should be included in any divvying up of such assets

 

[Ulysses]

12 hours ago, BlueRiver said:

 

Yep. Isn't Poland chief amongst that group at the moment? I feel like they've met the requirements or at least very close to having met them. Essentially a lot of the 2004 accession group are still outside the Eurozone despite having signed up to it? 

 

Memory seems to lead me to believe that Sweden had an opt-out similar to the UK. 

 

If Poland doesn't meet the criteria it's not far off.

 

Most of the 10 in the 2004 accession group have adopted the euro - Czechia, Hungary and Poland haven't. 

 

Bulgaria (2007) wants to join, but doesn't meet the inflation criteria.  Its currency is directly fixed to the euro.

 

Romania (2007) doesn't meet the convergence criteria for a number of reasons, and its currency floats. 

 

Sweden, remarkably, doesn't have an opt-out.  But the EU hasn't pushed the issue even though Sweden has long since met the convergence criteria.  Oddly enough, Sweden is obliged to join the euro, but it first has to spend two years in the Exchange Rate Mechanism - and membership of that is voluntary!

 

Denmark has an opt-out.  Its currency is in the ERM, and it is limited to moving 2.25% above or below its central exchange rate against the euro.