Mini Budget

[XB52]

3 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

You do realise that the first intention of this, and every single piece of government legislation, is to try and gain enough votes to ensure that they get re-elected at next election. They are attempting to shore up their core support and that is their priority.

The same goes for our own government in Scotland.

Did you really expect anything different? It's what politicians do.

Totally disagree with your last 2 sentences. It's what tories do, and labour under Tony Blair I suppose. 

[Taffin]

4 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

It could be, not up here in terms of Tory gains but down south possibly.  It is going to hinge on the Red Wall seats that turned blue because they thought they were getting rid of Johnny Foreigner and seeing the NHS get 360k a day more.  If they have seen through this mob then it will not be such a sure thing for the Tories.   I suspect that nearer the next election it is then that the Tories will give to the poor so it will be a case of do they fall for it a second time or return to Labour.   Interesting two years ahead down south for sure. 

 

If they fell for it once, I'm fairly certain they'll for it again. Mugs gonna mug 

 

A big part will be if any of the opposition can present something more robust than "these guys are mean". As true as that is, it's not enough imo.

 

 

[Mikey1874]

6 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

I think that will come but we're a bit away off from that currently imo. The affordability checks are quite tight these days, it's a kick in stones for sure but this rate increase isn't at a level that should make it unaffordable for people.

 

About £2000 to £3000 a year more in mortgage payments when interest rates go up to 4%.

 

Around £150-200 on average a month more in rent. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

24 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

Its this line that sticks in my craw. Unbelievable heartlessness on the low paid of our society who often have some hard jobs to do (care workers, nursery workers, cleaners and zero hour workers etc.)

 

He said that would mean 120,000 more people on Universal Credit "take active steps to seek more and better-paid work, or face having their benefits reduced".

 

Complete barstewards!!!

It’s a declaration of war on the working class / low paid . Kicking people when they are down. There are a variety of reasons people can only work part time . It’s scum economics 

[Taffin]

2 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

About £2000 to £3000 a year more in mortgage payments when interest rates go up to 4%.

 

Around £150-200 on average a month more in rent. 

 

Yeh, as I said it may well get there and be an issue, it's not there yet though. The affordability checks are pretty stringent to ensure people are able to afford increases...mortgages have been cheap as chips for years, it was never going to stay at those levels.

[Mikey1874]

9 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Yeh, as I said it may well get there and be an issue, it's not there yet though. The affordability checks are pretty stringent to ensure people are able to afford increases...mortgages have been cheap as chips for years, it was never going to stay at those levels.

 

Well home owners and renters better have the spare cash then.

 

You don't get an affordability check when your mortgage payment goes up because of interest rate changes. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Mikey1874

[Costanza]

NThe Tories getting the Britannia Unchained book out in full.

It's remarkable how like Brexit they take measures that they know wilfully harm the economy and have the audacity to bang on about growth.

To think that the only hope for the UK is Starmer (who is loathe to introduce PR) and it's a depressing situation.

[Mikey1874]

Government figures from Treasury confirm what I said.

 

Year 5 of these start to produce the big tax revenues of around £50 billion. 

 

3rd year of Labour Government. 

[BlueRiver]

15 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

If they fell for it once, I'm fairly certain they'll for it again. Mugs gonna mug 

 

A big part will be if any of the opposition can present something more robust than "these guys are mean". As true as that is, it's not enough imo.

 

 

I agree with this and your previous point about you being Mr Average. 
 

opposition parties really need to start with robust policies to counteract it and show why they will benefit Mr and Ms Average. 
 

10 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Well home owners and renters better have the spare cash then.

 

You don't get an affordability check when your mortgage payment goes up because of interest rate changes. 

The affordability checks were created with base rate increases in mind I believe. No one thought it would be 0% or 0.5% forever. 

[SwindonJambo]

An absolutely disgraceful set of measures, putting extra money on the pockets of the comfortable and wealthy. The markets have given their own verdict with an already weak pound dropping a further 2 cents against the dollar. 

 

National Debt will grow further. I think they actually want to lose the next election and their aim is to give their successors as hard a job as possible.

[Taffin]

14 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Well home owners and renters better have the spare cash then.

 

You don't get an affordability check when your mortgage payment goes up because of interest rate changes. 

 

I know, but the affordability check when you get your mortgage isn't whether it's affordable if you use 100% of you finances.

[FWJ]

2 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

An absolutely disgraceful set of measures, putting extra money on the pockets of the comfortable and wealthy. The markets have given their own verdict with an already weak pound dropping a further 2 cents against the dollar. 

 

National Debt will grow further. I think they actually want to lose the next election and their aim is to give their successors as hard a job as possible.

See, I don’t.  I think they’ll do what they can to get in next election then they’ll have the full 5 years to butcher the NHS, BBC, destroy workers’ rights and turn us into a low-pay, low-skill, sweat-shop economy while they build up their portfolios for a quick dash to the Cayman Islands or the BVI when there’s nothing left to sell.

[Malinga the Swinga]

26 minutes ago, XB52 said:

Totally disagree with your last 2 sentences. It's what tories do, and labour under Tony Blair I suppose. 

No surprise really, your a staunch SNP believer and simply can't contemplate they're made of same stuff as other parties.

Politicians doing what politicians do.

[Taffin]

8 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

I agree with this and your previous point about you being Mr Average. 
 

opposition parties really need to start with robust policies to counteract it and show why they will benefit Mr and Ms Average.  

 

I'm not a Tory voter and probably never will be. Right now I'm a nobody voter as none offer something close to what I'd be in favour of but it's completely understandable to me why normal folk would buy into stuff like today.

 

8 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

The affordability checks were created with base rate increases in mind I believe. No one thought it would be 0% or 0.5% forever. 

 

If you've no flex on a mortgage at the rates they've been at then there's something wrong there imo.

[Japan Jambo]

44 minutes ago, Taffin said:

Likely a vote winner tbh.

 

Yup, they are making a very clear distinction that hard work will pay and be rewarded. They've probably made the calculation that being warm and cuddly wouldn't get them any votes anyway as the narrative was 'Tory *******s' irrespective of the nuance. Quite a lurch to the right nonetheless.

 

Hold on for the ride this'll will be turbulent.

[Heartsofgold]

This 'statement' is a scorched earth policy.

 

The Tories are well aware that they are VERY likely to lose the next election so they are putting in place such a poison pill event that the next Government, Labour or coalition, will have NO chance of making a real difference as they will spend their whole term firefighting disasters in economic policy.

They will have no choice but to re-raise tax rates to pay the interest due on the, nearly, £200 BILLION, the current UK government will need to borrow to fund all the promises it has made.

 

Let there be no doubt folks, this is a disaster of a plan and there is a real possibility of economic collapse on the back end of it.

 

The Tory plan is to be in opposition during this tumultuous time and then be seen as the 'White Knights' riding in to save us.

 

[hughesie27]

 

[Mikey1874]

8 minutes ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

Yup, they are making a very clear distinction that hard work will pay and be rewarded. They've probably made the calculation that being warm and cuddly wouldn't get them any votes anyway as the narrative was 'Tory *******s' irrespective of the nuance. Quite a lurch to the right nonetheless.

 

Hold on for the ride this'll will be turbulent.

 

Bankers clearly work harder than NHS workers and others. 

[Sarah O]

🇬🇧 we made our bed in 2014 🇬🇧

[BlueRiver]

3 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

I'm not a Tory voter and probably never will be. Right now I'm a nobody voter as none offer something close to what I'd be in favour of but it's completely understandable to me why normal folk would buy into stuff like today.

 

 

If you've no flex on a mortgage at the rates they've been at then there's something wrong there imo.

Oh sorry didn’t mean to imply you were. I just think too often opposition to the Tories is framed in the damage wrought to those who are struggling or in borderline poverty. It doesn’t provide a compelling argument for why the average Joe in the middle should vote against them though if they see tangible benefits. Folk can scream altruism and all that till the cows come home but the vast majority of voters vote in self interest. 
 

I know he’s much-maligned since leaving office but from my very hazy memories of Blair, he at least projected a positive vision of what Britain could be if it discarded the Tories. I don’t see much of the positive visions being laid out and haven’t for some time, it’s just Tory bad relentlessly. I don’t hate Starmer but I think much of Labour’s lead in polls is down to the Tories hanging themselves rather than anything else. 
 

If members of the voting public come away from this budget feeling that they’ve benefited in some way that’s enough to win votes for the Tories as you say. 
 

Also agree on the mortgage point. 

[dobmisterdobster]

Tax cuts not available to viewers in Scotland it seems. 🙃

 

 

[Taffin]

7 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

Oh sorry didn’t mean to imply you were. I just think too often opposition to the Tories is framed in the damage wrought to those who are struggling or in borderline poverty. It doesn’t provide a compelling argument for why the average Joe in the middle should vote against them though if they see tangible benefits. Folk can scream altruism and all that till the cows come home but the vast majority of voters vote in self interest. 
 

I know he’s much-maligned since leaving office but from my very hazy memories of Blair, he at least projected a positive vision of what Britain could be if it discarded the Tories. I don’t see much of the positive visions being laid out and haven’t for some time, it’s just Tory bad relentlessly. I don’t hate Starmer but I think much of Labour’s lead in polls is down to the Tories hanging themselves rather than anything else. 
 

If members of the voting public come away from this budget feeling that they’ve benefited in some way that’s enough to win votes for the Tories as you say. 
 

Also agree on the mortgage point. 

 

No apology required, I was just looking to provide some clarity on my views not being in favour of one party or another. 👍

 

Good post ^^^^

[Japan Jambo]

1 minute ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Bankers clearly work harder than NHS workers and others. 

 

At the end of the day though it's about choices, how much effort you are prepared to put in and the sacrifices that come with it. I'd posit that very few people at the top of their respective profession (Doctor, Banker, Lawyer, whatever) have reached that point without putting in the hard yards along the way. 

[Taffin]

1 minute ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

At the end of the day though it's about choices, how much effort you are prepared to put in and the sacrifices that come with it. I'd posit that very few people at the top of their respective profession (Doctor, Banker, Lawyer, whatever) have reached that point without putting in the hard yards along the way. 

 

There's also lots of people who get paid a pittance who also put the hard yards in but either lack the aptitude to be in a better paying profession or they've chosen one that for other reasons doesn't attract big bucks because they believe in its value.

 

[Japan Jambo]

3 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Tax cuts not available to viewers in Scotland it seems. 🙃

 

 

 

Bit of a tanks on the lawn moment that one imo as it's a devolved matter. If Scotland doesn't follow I'd imagine there may be a drift of talent down south.

[Pans Jambo]

7 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Tax cuts not available to viewers in Scotland it seems. 🙃

 

 

Well that didn't take long. 

[Cade]

£411 billion in extra borrowing over the next 5 years

 

Who do you think will be paying for that?

[Pans Jambo]

2 minutes ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

Bit of a tanks on the lawn moment that one imo as it's a devolved matter. If Scotland doesn't follow I'd imagine there may be a drift of talent down south.

England can borrow to pay of the wealthy tax cuts, Scotland cant. Utter madness.

[BlueRiver]

2 minutes ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

Bit of a tanks on the lawn moment that one imo as it's a devolved matter. If Scotland doesn't follow I'd imagine there may be a drift of talent down south.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Coupled with the reductions to stamp duty down south it may make it quite attractive to top earners. 

[Japan Jambo]

Just now, Taffin said:

 

There's also lots of people who get paid a pittance who also put the hard yards in but either lack the aptitude to be in a better paying profession or they've chosen one that for other reasons doesn't attract big bucks because they believe in its value.

 

 

I agree, both fair comments. First one highlights that the world isn't a fair place, second one is to my point about choice. 

[Pans Jambo]

Maybe if we allow fracking then our gas bill would be a lot cheaper?

 

Maybe the fracking companies would sell the gas they get from the ground much cheaper than the current market prices?

 

Maybe pigs will fly

[Mikey1874]

5 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

There's also lots of people who get paid a pittance who also put the hard yards in but either lack the aptitude to be in a better paying profession or they've chosen one that for other reasons doesn't attract big bucks because they believe in its value.

 

 

Choice versus contacts and circumstances. 

 

Don't think everyone can just choose a high paid job.

 

This fallacy is the basis for system these tax cuts are based on. 

[Mikey1874]

£72 billion extra borrowing this financial year. 

 

Initial rise in last hours of rates of repayment from around 3% to 3.6& which adds £billions to repayments. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Mikey1874

[Victorian]

Rob the gaff + scorched earth.  Lose the election.  Blame the carnage on Labour.  Win the next election after that.  Rob the gaff.

 

Or...

 

Rob the gaff + scorched earth.  Win the next election.  Have a reshuffle,  call it a new government,  blame the carnage on the old government and treasury / BofE orthodoxy.  Rob the gaff quicker.

[Mikey1874]

It is interesting. People earning £1 million are apparently £54,000 a year better off. How does that improve the economy?

[Diadora Van Basten]

It’s a bit bizarre that the government are trying to bolster growth whilst the Bank of England are trying to stifle growth.

[Footballfirst]

23 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Bankers clearly work harder than NHS workers and others. 

..... and previously had to rely on bonuses restricted to just twice their basic salary.  They were clearly being hard done by.  Those bloody Tories (Cameron, May, Johnson) had a lot to answer for. Now replaced by an even deeper blue version in Truss.

[Dazo]

1 hour ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

£330 isn't going to cover energy price increases. It won't cover food price increases. 

 

1 hour ago, Pans Jambo said:

Wont pay for energy increases unless you earn around £100K a year as you will be better off by around £1000 P/A because of the NI decrease. An average wage of around £30K will be better off by £218 P/A or £18.17 per month.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63001463

Neither of you are in a position to say how this will impact other people on this forum. Ours will be covered and Taffin has said his will be close to being covered. Lots of people will be getting help by the national insurance reduction I’m not sure it should be scoffed at.

 

This will be a big vote winner amongst those in the middle that aren’t already entrenched in their views and obviously amongst Tory voters. 

[Dazo]

3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

That "Move to Russia" video looks more appealing now, eh?

There will be plenty room for you all judging by the news video reports from the neighbouring borders. 😊

[vegas-voss]

1 hour ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

You do realise that the first intention of this, and every single piece of government legislation, is to try and gain enough votes to ensure that they get re-elected at next election. They are attempting to shore up their core support and that is their priority.

The same goes for our own government in Scotland.

Did you really expect anything different? It's what politicians do.

I don't get how folk think they are not going to win the next election these ****ers will breeze it again despite what opinion polls say.Until the worse off start getting off their arse and voting they will continue to get in.

 

I don't mean all the worst off but I know so many folk that don't vote and just give the what's the point shrug.They just don't get that politics effect so much of their lives.

Edited September 23, 2022 by vegas-voss

[SwindonJambo]

Lots of comparisons being made with Anthony Barber's 1972 budget which tried all the same things - big tax cuts in a recession and it ended badly. 

[The Real Maroonblood]

4 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

I don't get how folk think they are not going to win the next election these ****ers will breeze it again despite what opinion polls say.Until the worse off start getting off their arse and voting they will continue to get in.

 

I don't mean all the worst off but I know so many folk that don't vote and just give the what's the point.They just don't get that politics effect so much of their lives.

Excellent post. 

[RobboM]

[Unknown user]

1 hour ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

Yup, they are making a very clear distinction that hard work will pay and be rewarded. They've probably made the calculation that being warm and cuddly wouldn't get them any votes anyway as the narrative was 'Tory *******s' irrespective of the nuance. Quite a lurch to the right nonetheless.

 

Hold on for the ride this'll will be turbulent.

 

Hard work will pay and be rewarded? Is it only the rich who work hard?

[That thing you do]

41 minutes ago, Cade said:

£411 billion in extra borrowing over the next 5 years

 

Who do you think will be paying for that?

Ill tell you where this is going. A central bank digital currency. "DigiQuid"

How do I know that?

 

1. The BOE is already working on it 

2. The pound is completely fecked long term as the borrowing is now out of control

3. This budget will cause more inflation which will in turn make the pound very unpopular on the markets (its already down vs the dollar since Kwarteng spoke)

 

Other countries that appear to be committing economic suicide and not tackling the problem propery ie USA, Turkey, Korea, Brazil are also working on CBDCs as well.

 

Personally, I think this is the start of the death of the monetary system as we know it. The elite are of course milking as much as they can before we go digital but I dont see any other way this is all going.

 

 

[Dazo]

5 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Hard work will pay and be rewarded? Is it only the rich who work hard?

Said no one ever. The reward is relative to the level of earnings, hardworking low earners can still be rewarded. 

[XB52]

1 hour ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

No surprise really, your a staunch SNP believer and simply can't contemplate they're made of same stuff as other parties.

Politicians doing what politicians do.

I can't contemplate it because they are totally different from the tories. You want to lump them in with the old, they're all the same, because it's what tories/unionists do. Absolute garbage

[BlueRiver]

34 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

I don't get how folk think they are not going to win the next election these ****ers will breeze it again despite what opinion polls say.Until the worse off start getting off their arse and voting they will continue to get in.

 

I don't mean all the worst off but I know so many folk that don't vote and just give the what's the point shrug.They just don't get that politics effect so much of their lives.

Good post.

[BlueRiver]

3 minutes ago, XB52 said:

I can't contemplate it because they are totally different from the tories. You want to lump them in with the old, they're all the same, because it's what tories/unionists do. Absolute garbage

They’re pretty populist in their own way. They all target a certain demographic.
 

I doubt a true blue Tory would contemplate what you say about the Tories either. 

[Unknown user]

12 minutes ago, Dazo said:

Said no one ever. The reward is relative to the level of earnings, hardworking low earners can still be rewarded. 

Rewarded with poverty