MAFIA - Let's save Christmas

[Smack]

1 minute ago, Smack said:

The chances of the first three tiebreakers producing identical results are 1 in 

30,238,208,000 according to my maths 😒 You are 20 times more likely to win Euromillions. 

Actually that's understating it. Forgot to square the 500.

[AlimOzturk]

2 minutes ago, Smack said:

The chances of the first three tiebreakers producing identical results are 1 in 

30,238,208,000 according to my maths 😒 You are 20 times more likely to win Euromillions. 

Is this genuine 😂  did you do the math?

[Riddley Walker]

Tbf the two most popular answers in the 1-500 challenge will be 249 or 251. Not that unbelievable they'd pick the same there. The first two, however...

[Dr. Sheldon Cooper]

Surely if they were both goons then Shapes would've picked a tiebreaker that couldn't be rigged to minimise the risk?

 

I must admit it does look suspicious but I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt for now, assuming the mason cop/wise men did the obvious thing.

[AlimOzturk]

dawn started the voting on dandyman. 
 

It was him then me and Rudi who voted him after I started the train ride there. 
 

He isn’t a goon unless he didn’t think dandyman had any chance of actually getting put into the lead.

[Morgaro Gomis]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Sheldon Cooper said:

Surely if they were both goons then Shapes would've picked a tiebreaker that couldn't be rigged to minimise the risk?

 

I must admit it does look suspicious but I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt for now, assuming the mason cop/wise men did the obvious thing.

 

Theres hardly ever tiebreakers sorted by random generator though. Surely doing that would have given away that they were goons which wouldn’t be fair. Surely Shapes would have just played it out as normal?

[Smack]

9 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Is this genuine 😂  did you do the math?

1/9^5 * 1/4^5 * 1/500^1

 

I think it's right....wouldn't swear on it though 😁

Edited December 6, 2020 by Smack

[Boof]

19 minutes ago, Shapes said:

The goons were out to get revenge since one of their own had died. They decided that Boof wasn't going to be able to help santa anymore.

 

Boof - good kid (townie) is dead.

 

Wooo

 

 

So...the goons wasted a night-hit

 

Telt ye's it wasn't worth it.

 

17 minutes ago, Shapes said:

15 players left. 8 for a lynch

 

14 players? [s]We[/s] you lost 2 - one lynch and one goon-whack.

 

 

wooo

[Shapes]

2 minutes ago, Boof said:

 

Wooo

 

 

So...the goons wasted a night-hit

 

Telt ye's it wasn't worth it.

 

 

14 players? [s]We[/s] you lost 2 - one lynch and one goon-whack.

 

 

wooo

Boof, my head is fried

[iantjambo]

What does everyone make of the late voting?

 

 

[Morgaro Gomis]

Looking at the votes throughout yesterday, Dandy also unvoted Dawn when Dawn was put into the lead at one stage.

[iantjambo]

Provisional goon list:

 

Marvin

Smack

Andy

 

I know a lot of people will think Dawn as a goon but I just can’t see them being that obvious. 
On top of that, he was surely the obvious investigation for the mason/cop.

[AlimOzturk]

1 minute ago, Morgaro Gomis said:

Looking at the votes throughout yesterday, Dandy also unvoted Dawn when Dawn was put into the lead at one stage.

And dawn voted for Dandy starting the pile on him. Also shapes wouldn’t have done the voting that way - no chance. At the very least she would have instructed them not to communicate their results with each other. 
 

I am making a staunch defence for dawn here knowing fine well it makes it look like I am In cahoots with him but I am not. Doing this as a genuine townie and think you are taking us down the wrong path here. 

[Dr. Sheldon Cooper]

4 minutes ago, iantjambo said:

What does everyone make of the late voting?

 

 

 

From a personal point of view, I had no valid reason to vote for Smack once Rudi posted so I had to change. Alim gave me a reason to vote for him and he admitted that himself.

 

Late flurry definitely worth going back to have another look at though.

[Smack]

7 minutes ago, iantjambo said:

What does everyone make of the late voting?

 

 

From my perspective if Dawn isn't a goon then Dunks voted to save Dandy. 

 

I was voting to get Rudi off 2 votes in case anyone was tempted to put him on 3 after he said he would be a loss to the town.

[Boof]

9 minutes ago, Shapes said:

Boof, my head is fried

 

Woo

 

Not surprised  

 

Been an eventful couple of deadlines - not to mention the tiebreak.

 

I'd blame the players, personally...

 

wooo

[AlimOzturk]

Goon list. (Provisional)
 

Morgaro - is going after dawn big style. I don’t think it is warranted. 
 

Dunks - late vote to try and save dandyman. 
 

Andy - had a funny feeling about him earlier. 
 

 

[Smack]

21 minutes ago, Riddley Walker said:

Tbf the two most popular answers in the 1-500 challenge will be 249 or 251. Not that unbelievable they'd pick the same there. The first two, however...

You're right. The odds I calculated are assuming the choice is made entirely at random. The first two is still a 1 in a 1.8million shot.

 

But, you'd have to assume the cop investigated Dawn. 

[Morgaro Gomis]

5 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Goon list. (Provisional)
 

Morgaro - is going after dawn big style. I don’t think it is warranted. 
 

Dunks - late vote to try and save dandyman. 
 

Andy - had a funny feeling about him earlier. 
 

 

 

Hardly going after him big style. I’ve posted what I think based on what’s happened. I evidenced and backed up my thoughts whereas you’re defending dawn as a hunch as Dawn voted Dandy first (cos a goon has never done that to another good right enough).

 

I don’t know that Dawn is a goon. Based on what’s happened though, it would be foolish not to look into that as he sticks out. 

 

If hes not a goon, I’d suggest he’s a naughty kid with you as his sibling given how staunchly you’re defending him based on very little.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Morgaro Gomis

[Smack]

On 04/12/2020 at 22:56, Smack said:

Goon list:

 

Marv - Marv

Rudi - Grinch

Dandyman - Scrooge

Yvonne - Hans Gruber

 

Vote Rudi

Oh and....😏😎 (assuming you ignore my inclusion of Yvonne 😁)

[Smack]

The American cousins found a Scottish cousin. Trying to figure out who might have caught their eye. And why are the cousins not indiscriminately murdering?!?

[Smack]

Goon list:

 

Marv - Marv

Gomis- Grinch

AndyNic - Hans

 

Scottish cousins  Dunks/?

American Cousins ?/?

Edited December 6, 2020 by Smack

[Dawnrazor]

vote morgaro

 

[Morgaro Gomis]

 like clockwork.

[Bunny Munro]

I've not had a good read since deadline.

 

Will read properly tomorrow.

 

Not convinced by that tiebreaker and the late votes will surely show something.

[AndyNic]

Cousins for sure are Dawn & Alim. Guaranteed.

 

Way too much defending of Dawn from Alim.

[AlimOzturk]

Just now, AndyNic said:

Cousins for sure are Dawn & Alim. Guaranteed.

 

Way too much defending of Dawn from Alim.

Come on Andy - i have defended dawn because of the evidence. 
 

I wouldn’t be so obvious or out there with my defence if i was in cahoots with him. That would be far to obvious. I am townie and I think dawn is to hence my defence of him. 
 

We have had a good start and I don’t want to see us going down the wrong path. 

[AndyNic]

1 minute ago, AlimOzturk said:

Come on Andy - i have defended dawn because of the evidence. 
 

I wouldn’t be so obvious or out there with my defence if i was in cahoots with him. That would be far to obvious. I am townie and I think dawn is to hence my defence of him. 
 

We have had a good start and I don’t want to see us going down the wrong path. 

 

Ok fair enough however it seems I am now looking dodgy for suggesting it was planned from Dawn and Dandy. Not sure if there's something in it or not it just didn't sit right with me. 

[jambosean75]

Wtf was going on last night. 

 

Surely the cop would have investigated the loser of the tie break. 

 

 

[jambosean75]

Will read through again when I get back from work and post a goon list then. 

 

 

[milky_26]

2 hours ago, jambosean75 said:

Wtf was going on last night. 

 

Surely the cop would have investigated the loser of the tie break. 

 

 

I agree the cop must have investigated dawn unless dawn is one of the cop/masons. However I don't think he would have been in a tie if he was.

 

From that I am leaning towards trusting dawn. Not fully but more so than others

[milky_26]

The good thing about the naughties investigation is they can look back at whoever they investigated posting/vote history to try and determine the other naughtie. But if they can't find out or determine who they are they at least can if one gets lynched can lynch the known naughtie to gain another townie

[AndyNic]

9 hours ago, iantjambo said:

Provisional goon list:

 

Marvin

Smack

Andy

 

I know a lot of people will think Dawn as a goon but I just can’t see them being that obvious. 
On top of that, he was surely the obvious investigation for the mason/cop.

 

Morning all. 

 

Yes, surely was investigated last night which confirmed someone good so I may have been a little hasty with my posts last night. 

[Dunks]

Well that was an interesting night!

 

On the tie-breakers, we all know that million to one shots come in 9 times out of 10, so not that surprising really

 

I've had a look back at the late vote changes. I can see why Alim suspects my late Dawn vote.

 

At 20:59 we had Marvin on 3 votes and Rudi, Riddley, Smack, Dandyman and Alim all on 2 each.

I didn't have a vote registered and had noted earlier changes to get Dawn down from 3 votes to 1, so I voted him back up to 2. 

 

At the exact same time, we also had Sheldon, Marvin, Rudi and Smack voting.

 

Rudi effectively saved Marvin, while a combination of Smack and I took Dawn into the tie-break.

 

Also from yesterday, I'm fairly certain who the cop is and I'm pretty sure he'd have investigated Dawn.

 

It was Dandyman himself as well as Bunny that unvoted Dawn earlier.

 

So what does all that mean? No idea.

 

 

[Rudi Skacel]

What it means dunks, is im a good townie, I dont think anyone could argue that. I also think dawn will be good aswell

[AndyNic]

I can see the Goon lists currently going about but I think it's too hard at this point in time to nail someone as a Goon because of the cousin situation. They could come across as bad due to being in it to win it for themselves but on the other hand it's not a bad thing if they are labelled a goon as more chance of them being taken out which adds another good guy to the town. 

 

Anyway my current goon list would be:

 

Ian

Riddley 

Marv 

 

Keeping my eye on Smack though as something doesn't seem right and seems way too keen to come across as good here. 

[Shapes]

Votes 

 

Morgaro - 1

 

 

[Dunks]

1 hour ago, Rudi Skacel said:

What it means dunks, is im a good townie, I dont think anyone could argue that. I also think dawn will be good aswell

 

I agree

[iantjambo]

1 hour ago, AndyNic said:

I can see the Goon lists currently going about but I think it's too hard at this point in time to nail someone as a Goon because of the cousin situation. They could come across as bad due to being in it to win it for themselves but on the other hand it's not a bad thing if they are labelled a goon as more chance of them being taken out which adds another good guy to the town. 

 

Anyway my current goon list would be:

 

Ian

Riddley 

Marv 

 

Keeping my eye on Smack though as something doesn't seem right and seems way too keen to come across as good here. 

So you think I’m a goon but not Dawn? Why would I stick up for him if that was the case? 

[Smack]

17 hours ago, Dandyman79 said:

Not sure what to do about rudi, can we afford to have rudi modkilled and lynch someone with some luck we get lucky, there is still not a lot to go by 

 

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Dawnrazor said:

unvote Boof

vote Dandy

 

16 hours ago, AlimOzturk said:

Vote dandy.

 

Fully appreciate that if he turns out to be good that makes it look like dawn and myself are tied at the hip. 
 

 

 

16 hours ago, Shapes said:

Rudi 2

Marvin 2

Riddley 2

Smack 2

Dawn 1

Dandyman 1

Alim 1

Morgaro 1

 

4 to vote - who they are I have no idea

 

So Dawn and Alim at the very least aren't goons you'd think.

 

16 hours ago, Rudi Skacel said:

Vote marvin

 

lets see if any mates come to save him

 

16 hours ago, Dandyman79 said:

vote alim

 

16 hours ago, Dr. Sheldon Cooper said:

 

You're right, it does.  So I'm going to try something which I may regret.

 

Unvote Smack

 

Vote Alim

Sheldon also votes Alim, could be innocent, could be sinister.

 

16 hours ago, Rudi Skacel said:

Unvote marvin

 

vote dandyman

Rudi not a goon then. Does seem to be playing his disinterested townie game.

 

16 hours ago, Smack said:

Shenanigans. 

 

Unvote Rudi

Vote Dawn

 

16 hours ago, Dunks said:

Why the late Dawn unvotes?

 

Vote Dawn

At the very last moment. The votes were not at exactly the same time as Dunks claims.

16 hours ago, Shapes said:

Dandyman 3

Dawn 3

Marvin 2

Riddley 2

Smack 2

Alim 2

Morgaro 1

Rudi 1

 

@Dawnrazor @Dandyman79 are you both around for a tie break?

 

 

[Smack]

15 hours ago, Bunny Munro said:

Now it's day.

 

Do we think they were talking in the goon chat?

 

15 hours ago, AndyNic said:

 

Absolutely.

 

WAY too convenient.

Going after Dawn

 

15 hours ago, Morgaro Gomis said:

There can be no chance that tiebreak stuff was random. Once maybe, twice... possible. Three times? Absolutely no way.

 

15 hours ago, Dawnrazor said:

Honestly, you can check my PM's😅

 

15 hours ago, Morgaro Gomis said:

 

I think you know that isn’t allowed, so I’m not buying that defence. 

 

If it turns out to be the case I’ll hold my hands up but for now I’m working on the assumption that you’re a goon too. 

 

I’ll hold off voting as I don’t want to rush into anything rashly but I’m going to need convincing to the contrary.

Going after Dawn

 

15 hours ago, Morgaro Gomis said:

Looking at the votes throughout yesterday, Dandy also unvoted Dawn when Dawn was put into the lead at one stage.

Still going for Dawn

15 hours ago, Morgaro Gomis said:

 

Hardly going after him big style. I’ve posted what I think based on what’s happened. I evidenced and backed up my thoughts whereas you’re defending dawn as a hunch as Dawn voted Dandy first (cos a goon has never done that to another good right enough).

 

I don’t know that Dawn is a goon. Based on what’s happened though, it would be foolish not to look into that as he sticks out. 

 

If hes not a goon, I’d suggest he’s a naughty kid with you as his sibling given how staunchly you’re defending him based on very little.

Morgaro Gomis patented goon desperate defence mode activated? 😁

14 hours ago, AndyNic said:

Cousins for sure are Dawn & Alim. Guaranteed.

 

Way too much defending of Dawn from Alim.

Maybe right.

 

My suspicions lie with:

 

Gomis

Dunks

Andy

Sheldon

 

In that order.

 

Not thinking too much about cousins atm, although it's back to the Scottish ones tonight. The Americans know who one of them is. Interesting how they play it. Unofficial alliance or do the Scots try to take out an American? If they strike gold the seething remaining yank could expose a Scottish cuz taking the cousins out the equation altogether.

[Smack]

Tldr:

 

Vote Morgaro Gomis

[Dawnrazor]

I'm not a cousin of Alims, I don't know if he's a cousin. I don't think he was defending me more highlighting the Goon behaviour of Morgano going for me, I think if Morgano was going for anyone else in suck a manor Alim would've done the same.

[AndyNic]

Reading back on those posts highlighted it does seem like Morgaro is a bit too keen to jump on Dawn. Saying that after last night so was I 🙈

 

You guys are a bit more experienced here but I'd reckon that is quite Goonish behaviour, or possibly a bad egg and part of a cousin duo?

[AndyNic]

2 hours ago, iantjambo said:

So you think I’m a goon but not Dawn? Why would I stick up for him if that was the case? 

 

Hmm good question. Could be a goon tactic? To be honest my attention was drawn to you because you'd hardly posted more than anything. 

[Dawnrazor]

2 minutes ago, AndyNic said:

 

Hmm good question. Could be a goon tactic? To be honest my attention was drawn to you because you'd hardly posted more than anything. 

Classic Goon tactics Andy, when the attention is on you get the attention on someone else quick!!!!

It's obvious I was investigated after Dandy lost the sudden death thing, who ever was investigated was found to be good, obviously me.

I'm not in the cousin thing, I've no roll this game and I'm just a townie.

[AndyNic]

6 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Classic Goon tactics Andy, when the attention is on you get the attention on someone else quick!!!!

It's obvious I was investigated after Dandy lost the sudden death thing, who ever was investigated was found to be good, obviously me.

I'm not in the cousin thing, I've no roll this game and I'm just a townie.

 

Yeh I said that this morning 👍🏼

 

[Morgaro Gomis]

I forgot in this game that posting theories when something odd happens wasn’t allowed. Seems you get jumped on for highlighting odd behaviour. I’ll note for next time just to lurk like everyone else. Deary me. 

 

Also, there has been a lot more going after me based on no evidence than me “going after” Dawn. I’ve highlighted that it was suspicious that Dandy and Dawn chose the same options multiple times and that Dandy unvoted Dawn when he got put in the lead earlier in the day. That’s it - if that’s going after someone, fine. I see it as highlight oddities and posting a theory but I forget that if you actually get involved that makes you a goon. Crack on though, I wont be posting further before deadline as I just can’t be arsed with being accused purely for actually trying to play the game. 

 

If I survive the day I’ll just be popping up at deadline to post a random vote as that’s the done thing it seems. Genuinely pisses me off.

 

Vote Dawn

 

 

 

 

[Dawnrazor]

13 minutes ago, Morgaro Gomis said:

I forgot in this game that posting theories when something odd happens wasn’t allowed. Seems you get jumped on for highlighting odd behaviour. I’ll note for next time just to lurk like everyone else. Deary me. 

 

Also, there has been a lot more going after me based on no evidence than me “going after” Dawn. I’ve highlighted that it was suspicious that Dandy and Dawn chose the same options multiple times and that Dandy unvoted Dawn when he got put in the lead earlier in the day. That’s it - if that’s going after someone, fine. I see it as highlight oddities and posting a theory but I forget that if you actually get involved that makes you a goon. Crack on though, I wont be posting further before deadline as I just can’t be arsed with being accused purely for actually trying to play the game. 

 

If I survive the day I’ll just be popping up at deadline to post a random vote as that’s the done thing it seems. Genuinely pisses me off.

 

Vote Dawn

 

 

 

 

So who do you think was investigated and found to be good? Don't you think it was me?

[AlimOzturk]

15 minutes ago, Morgaro Gomis said:

I forgot in this game that posting theories when something odd happens wasn’t allowed. Seems you get jumped on for highlighting odd behaviour. I’ll note for next time just to lurk like everyone else. Deary me. 

 

Also, there has been a lot more going after me based on no evidence than me “going after” Dawn. I’ve highlighted that it was suspicious that Dandy and Dawn chose the same options multiple times and that Dandy unvoted Dawn when he got put in the lead earlier in the day. That’s it - if that’s going after someone, fine. I see it as highlight oddities and posting a theory but I forget that if you actually get involved that makes you a goon. Crack on though, I wont be posting further before deadline as I just can’t be arsed with being accused purely for actually trying to play the game. 

 

If I survive the day I’ll just be popping up at deadline to post a random vote as that’s the done thing it seems. Genuinely pisses me off.

 

Vote Dawn

 

 

 

 

Vote Morgaro

 

Have seen the toys out the pram tactic far to many times now to fall for it again.