Ulysses Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 22 hours ago, JFK-1 said: 538 is currently predicting 334 electoral votes for Biden and 163 for Trump. If it's narrowing to use a football analogy it looks somewhat like a team being beaten 4-0 then scoring a goal with 15 minutes remaining. 538 predicted a similar win for Clinton with 12 days to go in 2016. The point is not that Biden is leading. The point is not that the polls are narrowing. The point is that we've been here before, and Trump won. That means two things. One is that if the same things happens again in the last 12 days of this campaign then Trump's odds go to 50-50. The other is that we know it can happen, because it's already happened. What does 538 say about the other 41 electoral college votes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Just now, Barack said: Mythbuster. Noel Casler has debunked this. While he doesn't drink excessively, or at least didn't. He definitely drank. Never denied by anyone. Casler was more focused on the drug abuse admittedly. But everything he's stated on Twitter has never been disputed by anyone on Trump's side. Consider the minor litigation shit he goes after folk for. Casler just posts away happily. Good account, if folk want to follow him. And there was me thinking he laid off the booze because he didn't want that brain cell to die alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Ulysses said: 538 predicted a similar win for Clinton with 12 days to go in 2016. The point is not that Biden is leading. The point is not that the polls are narrowing. The point is that we've been here before, and Trump won. That means two things. One is that if the same things happens again in the last 12 days of this campaign then Trump's odds go to 50-50. The other is that we know it can happen, because it's already happened. What does 538 say about the other 41 electoral college votes? We've been a lot of places before. We have seen unlikely things happen in many fields. But in general no one thinks they constitute a pattern. This isn't 2016 and it isn't Clinton. As for the 41 votes I don't know what they say if anything at all. What would it even matter when 270 is the winning total. Edited October 23, 2020 by JFK-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Yesterday 1,225 people in the US died of covid 19. The highest daily fatalities to the virus. As Trump keeps insisting "we're turning the corner" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, JFK-1 said: Yesterday 1,225 people in the US died of covid 19. The highest daily fatalities to the virus. As Trump keeps insisting "we're turning the corner" Nope. Unless you're comparing the figure to other countries rather than historically. If you're comparing it to other countries then a per-capita rate would perhaps be the best measure of comparison. Edited October 23, 2020 by redjambo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, JFK-1 said: We've been a lot of places before. We have seen unlikely things happen in many fields. But in general no one thinks they constitute a pattern. This isn't 2016 and it isn't Clinton. As for the 41 votes I don't know what they say if anything at all. What would it even matter when 270 is the winning total. Voting regularly follows patterns - if it didn't then political campaigns would be completely aimless. Trump's win in 2016 wasn't unlikely; it merely seemed that way two weeks before election day. It also seems that way now, to which one has to ask: so what? It isn't Clinton. It's Biden. He's not as unpopular, but he's not an inspiring candidate. Don't worry about the 41, I've looked them up. They're states that 538 regards as too close to call. RCP says 232 Biden, 125 Trump and 181 toss-up. They regard more states as too close to call than 538. It's no harm to keep in mind that RCP is also more selective than 538 in the polls it includes in its aggregation calculations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 I can absolutely see where @Ulysses is coming from. After both 2016 and the Brexit referendum, I'll never take a result for granted again. Particularly the case for the States where the electoral college system means that the tail can not only wag the dog but thrash it around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, redjambo said: I can absolutely see where @Ulysses is coming from. After both 2016 and the Brexit referendum, I'll never take a result for granted again. Particularly the case for the States where the electoral college system means that the tail can not only wag the dog but thrash it around. The next 7 days will tell a lot. The equivalent period of the 2016 campaign was from October 28th to November 4th (Friday to Friday). Clinton's lead had slipped a little in the couple of days before the 28th. On October 28th, James Comey wrote to members of Congress to say that the FBI would be reviewing more of the "Clinton emails". In the 6-7 days after that her lead in the national polls fell from 4.6% to 1.3%. In the key battleground states her lead was wiped out completely. Evidently, the Republicans are hoping that the Hunter Biden stuff will have a similar effect to the Comey letter. However, that would seem to be a bit optimistic for three reasons. Firstly, James Comey was regarded by the public as independent, so his letter would have had an influence on independent and undecided voters. Those voters are less likely to pay attention to people who are obviously Republican apparatchiks, regardless of how lurid the Hunter Biden stories are. Secondly, although Clinton wasn't corrupt or dishonest in her email usage, she did actually breach security protocols, and people did mark her down for that. And thirdly, people were generally more negative about Clinton than they are about Biden, and therefore less willing to cut her any slack. So we'll see. If Biden is still 4 points ahead in the battleground states and 6-7 points ahead nationally next Thursday night, then that position is unlikely to shift over the weekend. If the polls are looking more like 2016, then it will be time for Democrats to worry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Trump is unhinged, rambling on with conspiracy theories about Biden and Russia. The irony. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Vaccine. In the next few weeks. Tax returns. In the next few weeks. The election. Conveniently before the next few weeks have expired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Tazio said: Vaccine. In the next few weeks. Tax returns. In the next few weeks. The election. Conveniently before the next few weeks have expired. It's all fantasy mixed with his conspiracy crap. Rambling back to witch hunts and spying on his campaign. He's looking even worse than he did last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Better moderator than last time though to be fair she has the mute button and she just muted Trump. Guid auld Scottish term to describe how Trump looks right now. Face like fizz. He can't stand not being able to interrupt and being silenced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambostuart Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 I don't like Trump (to put it mildly) but it seems like Biden is getting a lot more time to talk. That was a hell of a lot more than 2 minutes uninterrupted and she's speaking over Trump but not Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 4 hours ago, Justin Z said: There is also a disinformation campaign in full swing targeted specifically at his sycophants to try to convince them that the administration has been committed to ending human trafficking and that the border wall has been a key component in bringing the numbers down. I just didn't even know where to begin with that, when faced with it. I wish people weren't so ****ing gullible, because children's lives and wellbeing has literally depended on it, but they are—and so here we are. Trump disagreeing with you on something. He keeps saying in this debate that Biden is going to bring "socialised medicine". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 He’s actually ****ing deranged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Right. I’m done, his Abraham Lincoln, and that’s debatable was too much for me. Bed time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Jambo Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, Tazio said: He’s actually ****ing deranged. Very. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 I don't know how they're even going to pretend Trump looked good in this. Of course that will make zero difference to the cultists, if Trump dropped his troosers and mooned the audience it would make no difference to them. But it may make a difference to some undecideds I suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eldar Hadzimehmedovic Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 That was a nasty blunder by Biden at the end openly talking about phasing out oil. That will go down like a death in the family in Texas, Pennsylvania and chunks of the Midwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Trump claimed the US has the cleanest water. Quote On water, the US is ranked 26th in the world on sanitation and drinking water, according to Yale University. On this ranking, Finland, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland and the UK have the cleanest water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ri Alban Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, JFK-1 said: How about this? Happened yesterday. Burning car, if it were me I would be thinking that may blow at any time. Do I take the chance. Cop Drags Woman Out of Burning Overturned Car Thanks Bud 👍 Helps knowing people can be superheroes. Edited October 23, 2020 by ri Alban Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, ri Alban said: Thanks Bud 👍 Helps knowing people can be superheroes. Did you notice she didn't even look to be trying to get herself out of there? She was charged for drunk driving. So pissed she couldn't even get out of a burning car with the fully open window right next to her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Something else just came back to me. Trump claimed to be the least racist person in the room. Which presumably makes his entire family who were there more racist than he is and also the woman moderator who was black. And Abraham Lincoln was dragged up again. No one but maybe, just maybe, Lincoln has done more for black people than Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ri Alban Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 42 minutes ago, JFK-1 said: Did you notice she didn't even look to be trying to get herself out of there? She was charged for drunk driving. So pissed she couldn't even get out of a burning car with the fully open window right next to her. She's an idiot. Jail time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharpie Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 I watched the Debate with Bated breath, and finally came to a decision. If I was an American and wanted to use my democratically given vote, I either could not vote, or would do a write in nominee. Of the two running one I find despicable, and the other, I have the cheek to say, old. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidelight Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3fingersreid Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Just watched the “ best bits” on the bbc website . So trump knows more about wind than anyone else , he might be right in that but only if you add “ and pish” to the end off it . surely to god they can’t be that stupid to re-elect him , could they ???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beni Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Trump doesn't look happy at the end of the debate, and as Melania walks towards him he says "bullshit" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidelight Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 (edited) After 4 years of Democrats lies and misdirect, we have real collusion in part revealed. China Joe goose cooked? Perhaps. Edited October 23, 2020 by alfajambo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kila Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 You’re a whack job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidelight Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, kila said: You’re a whack job Russian Collusion Delusion; Kavanaugh Circus: Impeachment Farce; ACB Theatrics. Other associated misdirect and lies, its not up for debate, it’s a declaration of fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Des Lynam Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, alfajambo said: Russian Collusion Delusion; Kavanaugh Circus: Impeachment Farce; ACB Theatrics. Other associated misdirect and lies, its not up for debate, it’s a declaration of fact. Collusion delusion? Mueller did not exonerate Trump and was uncomfortable in charging a sitting President. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidelight Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Des Lynam said: Collusion delusion? Mueller did not exonerate Trump and was uncomfortable in charging a sitting President. The despicable charade was based on a fake dossier funded by Clinton INC. A declaration of fact and not up for debate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Des Lynam Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, alfajambo said: The despicable charade was based on a fake dossier funded by Clinton INC. A declaration of fact and not up for debate. You sure it wasn’t Marco that got the ball rolling? You got links to your undisputed facts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackLadd Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 So lying dirtbag Donnie didn't move the dial. Maybe Vladdy can help like he did in 16, better do it quick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I P Knightley Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 2 hours ago, fancy a brew said: Trump doesn't look happy at the end of the debate, and as Melania walks towards him he says "bullshit" I saw another clip on Twitter where Melania pretty much slapped his hand away as they went to walk off the stage. She feckin' hates his guts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 28 minutes ago, I P Knightley said: I saw another clip on Twitter where Melania pretty much slapped his hand away as they went to walk off the stage. She feckin' hates his guts. She might do but she was happy enough to take the status, money, and citizenships. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey J J Jr Shabadoo Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Tazio said: She might do but she was happy enough to take the status, money, and citizenships. She's (almost) as bad as he is. She's a complete front bottom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo-Jimbo Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 46 minutes ago, Tazio said: She might do but she was happy enough to take the status, money, and citizenships. Let's see how long she stays with him once he's no longer President & his business are going down the shitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kila Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 3 hours ago, alfajambo said: Russian Collusion Delusion; Kavanaugh Circus: Impeachment Farce; ACB Theatrics. Other associated misdirect and lies, its not up for debate, it’s a declaration of fact. You truly believe Donald Trump is a saint and he's done nothing wrong? Mental. Absolutely mental. You are being fed disinformation, probably by Russians who are keen to keep Trump in power because he is dragging the US down and creating division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bindy Badgy Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 2 hours ago, alfajambo said: The despicable charade was based on a fake dossier funded by Clinton INC. A declaration of fact and not up for debate. Товарищ! Ваша дезинформация слишком очевидна. Его нужно накрутить, так как над вами будут только издеваться! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willie Hamilton genius Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, kila said: You truly believe Donald Trump is a saint and he's done nothing wrong? Mental. Absolutely mental. You are being fed disinformation, probably by Russians who are keen to keep Trump in power because he is dragging the US down and creating division. Or he IS a Russian bot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Gentleman Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 hour ago, I P Knightley said: I saw another clip on Twitter where Melania pretty much slapped his hand away as they went to walk off the stage. She feckin' hates his guts. 1 hour ago, Tazio said: She might do but she was happy enough to take the status, money, and citizenships. ménage à twa' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I P Knightley Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Tazio said: She might do but she was happy enough to take the status, money, and citizenships. Here's Sean Fitzpatrick, the All Black. Other images of high-class hookers are available at Google if you search for "Melania Trump with no clothes on" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovecraft Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Tazio said: She might do but she was happy enough to take the status, money, and citizenships. She is a hooker on long term retention. Everyone can see that. Very apt for the entire family. Classless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharpie Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 5 hours ago, alfajambo said: The despicable charade was based on a fake dossier funded by Clinton INC. A declaration of fact and not up for debate. I just watched some of the video of the 60 Minutes interview. Trump whines throughout about being asked difficult questions. If you know your job and decisions you have made and are making there is no such thing as a tough question, the only thing thats difficult is trying to cover up your lack of knowledge. Twice the interviewer asked about statements Trump made he denied making them, he was shown tape of him saying the alleged things, caught again in a lie. He was asked about the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare, he claims as he has done often that he has a Health Plan ready to go, but his waffling proves that this claim being made for an extended time without any proof of a plan suggests at the least another blatant lie. Surely if you are intelligent enough, which doesn't take a lot I prove so every day by using a computer you cannot honestly believe what this terrible man says, and you must instead be some kind of strange individual who takes joy that with anonymity he/she can troll a group of persons who give their honest views on such an important to all subject Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Z Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 2 hours ago, kila said: You truly believe Donald Trump is a saint and he's done nothing wrong? Mental. Absolutely mental. You are being fed disinformation, probably by Russians who are keen to keep Trump in power because he is dragging the US down and creating division. It's not by Russians, it's by grifters. There's an entire cottage industry of making up deranged right wing garbage for the gullible to consume. See this actual Facebook for an example of the effect it has on people's grasp of reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Z Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eldar Hadzimehmedovic Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 35 minutes ago, Justin Z said: 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 7 hours ago, alfajambo said: After 4 years of Democrats lies and misdirect, we have real collusion in part revealed. China Joe goose cooked? Perhaps. You really have no idea how absurd you're being? I suspect you simply took this word 'collusion' from some wacko website and ran with it. Collusion in what? A failed business venture? If that were a crime Trump would be doing multiple life sentences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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