Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[ri Alban]

7 hours ago, pablo said:

 

 

Her job as SNP party leader or her job as First Minister? If Ruth Davidson was First Minister, I wouldn't expect her to represent Scottish Tory voters in this. The UK is leaving the EU. I'm comfortable with no MSPs being involved in National TV debates.

Aye, that's because NS would take them all to the cleaners. She'd put TM back in her haunted mirror. 

[ri Alban]

8 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

Farage should be there as well

 

And I forgot the Alliance Party in N.Ireland 

 

So that's 13

 

Probably should have someone from EU and Ireland too re border issue.

 

So that's 15.

 

90 minutes - 6 minutes each 

So the PM and the other MPs from England, Wales and NI will be keep away during Indyref2 in March 2019. That's Good, leave it to the FM and Msps.?

[Francis Albert]

8 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Yes FA the reduction in one year was around 2%. What the BOE are forecasting in a no deal cliff edge Brexit is at the minimum another similar shock or indeed a worse one.

This time however it's not a global shockwave where banks were supported, markets maintained, currencies protected. This time it's the UK only, a weak market and most likely speculators tearing the pound apart. 

Like you say it's not like for like.

You can argue the % points but I suspect the BOE aren't far off the mark with the scenarios they have been running. 

It's also worth remembering there's no fiscal upside here at all, it's all about levels of decline and shrinkage, by everyone's modelling including the UK government.

Less brown faces though ?

The BoE figures you posted are not a forecast. They are a set of worst case assumptions designed specifically  to test the robustness of UK banks. But their presentation has done the job for Project Fear. For example the i newspaper headline was "Bank Warns of worse economic slump since Second World War" (a lie big enough to fit on the side of a bus), the headline alone covering most of the front page. Carney should write to correct the i but even if he does it will be buried on page 20. Job done.

Also it is not "all about decline and shrinkage". The Government/Treasury forecasts are (for credible outcomes) of a modest slowing of growth. But again much media  presentation invites  erroneous and scary conclusions like yours.

Edited November 30, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Mikey1874]

4 hours ago, ri Alban said:

So the PM and the other MPs from England, Wales and NI will be keep away during Indyref2 in March 2019. That's Good, leave it to the FM and Msps.?

 

Straight debate with 2 (or 3) people is always better to get to the issues. 

 

The bigger numbers just don't work well. 

[Jambos_1874]

7 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

The BoE figures you posted are not a forecast. They are a set of worst case assumptions designed specifically  to test the robustness of UK banks. But their presentation has done the job for Project Fear. For example the i newspaper headline was "Bank Warns of worse economic slump since Second World War" (a lie big enough to fit on the side of a bus), the headline alone covering most of the front page. Carney should write to correct the i but even if he does it will be buried on page 20. Job done.

Also it is not "all about decline and shrinkage". The Government/Treasury forecasts are (for credible outcomes) of a modest slowing of growth. But again much media  presentation invites  erroneous and scary conclusions like yours.

 

Why is it when any organisation/person is critical of Brexit, Leavers label it "Project Fear"? It's not fear, it's a likely reality which happens to be negative. Forecasts and estimates and predictions can be wrong, of course tbey can, but just about every institution worth their salt is suggesting that we will be worse off than we would be if we remained in the EU. I just cannot comprehend why anyone would want us to leave in light of that knowledge. I'd bet if you asked your average Joe in the street ten years ago whether they thought the EU was a good thing they probably wouldn't have been able to tell you much about it and at worst would have been indifferent towards it. Along come the Tories and suddenly people seem to be angry about it and desperate to reduce immigration at the cost of their own prosperity. Absolute madness. There should be a second referendum now we know what the deal is and we can all vote with a better idea of how things would be under both scenarios.

[The Mighty Thor]

12 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

The BoE figures you posted are not a forecast. They are a set of worst case assumptions designed specifically  to test the robustness of UK banks. But their presentation has done the job for Project Fear. For example the i newspaper headline was "Bank Warns of worse economic slump since Second World War" (a lie big enough to fit on the side of a bus), the headline alone covering most of the front page. Carney should write to correct the i but even if he does it will be buried on page 20. Job done.

Also it is not "all about decline and shrinkage". The Government/Treasury forecasts are (for credible outcomes) of a modest slowing of growth. But again much media  presentation invites  erroneous and scary conclusions like yours.

Semantics FA, semantics. 

The modelling by every credible economic body tells the same story, a severe 'slowing of growth' as you put it. Would that be a slowing of the huge economic growth we're experiencing right now? Or would it be a good old fashioned recession as 'slow growth' used to be called.

We'll find out soon enough but I wouldn't want to be sat on a big mortgage or credit card or personal debt because the 'scary conclusions' modelled out by people with far more macro economic acumen than you ain't looking too hot. 

[Mikey1874]

The costs actually that have happened since the Brexit vote have actually been undervalued. Delayed investment, jobs already moved and planned to be moved, the effect of the exchange rate on pensions and import costs. 

 

Quite the opposite of 'Project Fear'. More like 'Project Denial'. 

[Francis Albert]

29 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Semantics FA, semantics. 

The modelling by every credible economic body tells the same story, a severe 'slowing of growth' as you put it. Would that be a slowing of the huge economic growth we're experiencing right now? Or would it be a good old fashioned recession as 'slow growth' used to be called.

We'll find out soon enough but I wouldn't want to be sat on a big mortgage or credit card or personal debt because the 'scary conclusions' modelled out by people with far more macro economic acumen than you ain't looking too hot. 

I don't know about macro economic acumen, but I can read, even beyond the headlines.

A recession is defined as an absolute decline in GDP, not a slowing of growth.

And I can by reading learn that the BoE figures were not conclusions reached by modelling but a set of assumptions used (as inputs not outputs)  in modelling the ability of banks to cope with extreme scenarios.

Edited November 30, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Pans Jambo]

On 29/11/2018 at 08:44, The Mighty Thor said:

Bloomberg's summary of BoE report

 

 

It's all project fear though.

This all looks positive. 

[Francis Albert]

5 hours ago, ri Alban said:

So the PM and the other MPs from England, Wales and NI will be keep away during Indyref2 in March 2019. That's Good, leave it to the FM and Msps.?

Fair point.

As posted elsewhere I think independence should be a devolved matter - the indyref has in effect accepted that principle by putting the decision in the hands of Scottish electors. If a majority in favour of independence is elected to the Scottish Parliament the Scottish Government should negotiate a divorce package and put it to the Scottish Parliament for approval.

A similar approach to Bexit would have been much cleaner.

Of course an election to Holyrood in these conditions would be a bit different from elections on the current terms.

Referendums don't really fit with our form of democracy.

Edited November 30, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Brighton Jambo]

13 hours ago, Hunky Dory said:

 

I think Sturgeon nailed it when she asked what the point of the debate was if the two participants shared the same stance.

 

If its May vs Corbyn only, then there's no point to it.

 

I agree that numbers could overwhelm it but the major parties in Westminster should be represented.

But sturgeons position is to remain which isn’t on the table.  This is a debate about the make up of the deal.  If there is a debate in future on reversing the decision then maybe her and Vince Cable should be included.  

[Boris]

8 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

But sturgeons position is to remain which isn’t on the table.  This is a debate about the make up of the deal.  If there is a debate in future on reversing the decision then maybe her and Vince Cable should be included.  

 

SNP position is for a Norway style deal, is it not?  I'm sure Sturgeon would love to remain in the EU though!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/27/norway-plus-brexit-option-is-winning-support-says-nicola-sturgeon

 

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

19 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

SNP position is for a Norway style deal, is it not?  I'm sure Sturgeon would love to remain in the EU though!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/27/norway-plus-brexit-option-is-winning-support-says-nicola-sturgeon

 

 

 

Isn't Norway part of Shengan (sic). If it is then that would be ruled out as May seems to think leave voters are only concerned about that. Just goes to show how utterly useless the woman has been throughout this process. 

[Boris]

I see the headline from a BBC news story online:

 

"May rejects all alternatives to her EU exit plan." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46394431

 

Except, it's not really up to her, is it?  Parliament has the vote and, if as expected they reject May's deal, and then May goes ofr no deal, wouldn't Parliament simply eject her from office?

[Boris]

1 minute ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Isn't Norway part of Shengan (sic). If it is then that would be ruled out as May seems to think leave voters are only concerned about that. Just goes to show how utterly useless the woman has been throughout this process. 

 

Indeed!  The EFTA approach allows free momvement, but outwith CAP/CFP

 

Is free movement really such an issue?  It's not something I think of, apart from the flip side of it meaning I get free movemment.

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 minute ago, Boris said:

 

Indeed!  The EFTA approach allows free momvement, but outwith CAP/CFP

 

Is free movement really such an issue?  It's not something I think of, apart from the flip side of it meaning I get free movemment.

 

Maybot seems to have had ending free movement as the only line in the sand she has not given away to the EU so I think she deems it vital. It's one of the many things the idiot has got so terribly wrong since day one.

[The Mighty Thor]

3 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

I don't know about macro economic acumen, but I can read, even beyond the headlines.

A recession is defined as an absolute decline in GDP, not a slowing of growth.

And I can by reading learn that the BoE figures were not conclusions reached by modelling but a set of assumptions used (as inputs not outputs)  in modelling the ability of banks to cope with extreme scenarios.

FA I think we're bald men arguing over a comb here. Your talking growth slowdown, I'm saying outright recession. I don't see the growth in UK PLC to slow from. We're already the worst in the major european economies.

I hope neither of us is right but I suspect it'll start slow and snowball fast once the GBP starts taking a beating.

 

[XB52]

What is the point of a TV debate when it is parliament that will vote?? Or is it that May has already given up and is preparing for the election 

[The Mighty Thor]

I read she's now proposing a second parliamentary vote before we've even had the first one?

 

WTF 

Edited November 30, 2018 by The Mighty Thor

[Mikey1874]

1 hour ago, XB52 said:

What is the point of a TV debate when it is parliament that will vote?? Or is it that May has already given up and is preparing for the election 

 

She refused to do a debate at the General election though that was the Tory election position after Cameron was accused of losing the 2010 election (having to form a coalition) after doing the debates. 

 

Maybe she does want to put herself in a better light for an election.  

[Roxy Hearts]

I hope some of the people living in Scotland and voted to remain in the UK are thinking what have we done to deserve a Westminster leader and government like this. 

 

What shower the Tories and Labour are. Not a statesperson amongst them and no gravitas. 

 

 

[Francis Albert]

2 hours ago, XB52 said:

What is the point of a TV debate when it is parliament that will vote?? Or is it that May has already given up and is preparing for the election 

Weird concept I know but maybe Parliament might be informed by public opinion? As reflected in constituency views and polls?

[Thunderstruck]

33 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

I hope some of the people living in Scotland and voted to remain in the UK are thinking what have we done to deserve a Westminster leader and government like this. 

 

What shower the Tories and Labour are. Not a statesperson amongst them and no gravitas. 

 

 

 

I suspect that the majority in Scotland are looking at what’s going on and thanking their lucky stars that they didn’t vote for a similar shambles in 2014. 

 

God alone knows what might happen if the lunatics who want to have a referendum and only then answer questions hold sway. If it wasn’t so crazy, it would be funny. 

 

It is astonishing the number of posters who can see can see the flaws in Brexit but are oblivious to the harm in doing the same in Scotland. 

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

Personally I think these debates are a total waste of time and money and don't serve any useful purpose. 

[Roxy Hearts]

8 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

I suspect that the majority in Scotland are looking at what’s going on and thanking their lucky stars that they didn’t vote for a similar shambles in 2014. 

 

God alone knows what might happen if the lunatics who want to have a referendum and only then answer questions hold sway. If it wasn’t so crazy, it would be funny. 

 

It is astonishing the number of posters who can see can see the flaws in Brexit but are oblivious to the harm in doing the same in Scotland. 

 

At least we could have voted for the party we wanted and blamed ourselves. I don't agree with a 2nd independence referendum but can understand why it's wanted. 

[Victorian]

3 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I read she's now proposing a second parliamentary vote before we've even had the first one?

 

WTF 

 

She isn't ruling it out.    She hasn't ruled out no deal either.

 

May not ruling out no deal.

Labour say they will back an amendment to rule out no deal.

May says Labour not backing her deal means they are advocating no deal.

 

You can't buy dishonesty as high grade as that.    She wont answer any troublesome questions and slavers any old shite about others.    She's been going on about others having no alternative strategies.     Yet they do and have stated them.     She's the only one ruling out every single other option outwith her already dead and buried deal.    Very little scrutiny from the media.

[Victorian]

3 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I read she's now proposing a second parliamentary vote before we've even had the first one?

 

WTF 

 

Dp

Edited November 30, 2018 by Victorian

[Victorian]

3 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I read she's now proposing a second parliamentary vote before we've even had the first one?

 

WTF 

 

 

 

Dp.

Edited November 30, 2018 by Victorian

[Mikey1874]

Second vote on the same proposal isn't even normally allowed in Parliament 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46394431

[Victorian]

Tory Facebook ads targeted at leavers are encouraging them to write to their MPs.       There's more than one project fear.

 

Meanwhile... Tory 'loyal rump' MPs are meeting their constituents,   being told the deal is shite... and,  oh look,  are saying they'll still vote for it.

 

Only dissenting MPs are being told to listen to their voters.      

[Seymour M Hersh]

11 hours ago, Victorian said:

Tory Facebook ads targeted at leavers are encouraging them to write to their MPs.       There's more than one project fear.

 

Meanwhile... Tory 'loyal rump' MPs are meeting their constituents,   being told the deal is shite... and,  oh look,  are saying they'll still vote for it.

 

Only dissenting MPs are being told to listen to their voters.      

 

How is leavers encouraging other leavers to write to their MP's complaining about the deal a "project fear"?

[ri Alban]

Brexit is the daft guy who goes out for a smoke during the and his door shuts  behind him. Stuck outside in his nacks .

[Victorian]

4 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

How is leavers encouraging other leavers to write to their MP's complaining about the deal a "project fear"?

 

Who said the MPs are leavers?

 

The Tories are targeting leaver Facebook accounts,  regardless of their MPs,  encouraging them to write to them.    At the same time,   some leaver MPs loyal to the government have held constituency meetings and have found that the prevailing opinion is that the May deal is shit,   yet these MPs are still planning to vote for it.

 

May told the whole of parliament to listen to public opinion.     It is now clear that actually only applies to some of parliament.       Dreadful,   desperate stuff.

[Mikey1874]

The latest resignation seems damaging. Says Deal isn't really a deal. Losing access to new 'GPS' satellite system is a sign of what is to come he says.

 

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

2 hours ago, Victorian said:

 

Who said the MPs are leavers?

 

The Tories are targeting leaver Facebook accounts,  regardless of their MPs,  encouraging them to write to them.    At the same time,   some leaver MPs loyal to the government have held constituency meetings and have found that the prevailing opinion is that the May deal is shit,   yet these MPs are still planning to vote for it.

 

May told the whole of parliament to listen to public opinion.     It is now clear that actually only applies to some of parliament.       Dreadful,   desperate stuff.

 

Sorry I'm not getting your rant. Your post I quoted suggested this facebook tactic was a project fear thing I asked why. What are they asking to say in their letters to the MP's? I think your last sentence may indicate we are both in agreement the the deal is shite and May is listening to nobody except Oily Robbins and Hammond but then she has lied from day one. But I'm still unsure how it's a project fear thing. Of course I have not seen the email from the Conservatives. Have you?

Edited December 1, 2018 by Seymour M Hersh

[Francis Albert]

18 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

Second vote on the same proposal isn't even normally allowed in Parliament 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46394431

So May is not proposing a second vote.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, Mikey1874 said:

The latest resignation seems damaging. Says Deal isn't really a deal. Losing access to new 'GPS' satellite system is a sign of what is to come he says.

 

 

 

Was very critical on TV this morning of the way the EU has treated the UK, basically saying they took our money, over billion €'s, took our technology and then told the UK TGF, also said that this is the way the EU will treat the UK from now on.

 

He's a remainer but said there are now only two choices, either all in or all out and stopped just short of accusing May of misleading the British people of this non deal.

[Victorian]

12 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Sorry I'm not getting your rant. Your post I quoted suggested this facebook tactic was a project fear thing I asked why. What are they asking to say in their letters to the MP's? I think your last sentence may indicate we are both in agreement the the deal is shite and May is listening to nobody except Oily Robbins and Hammond but then she has lied from day one. But I'm still unsure how it's a project fear thing. Of course I have not seen the email from the Conservatives. Have you?

Rant my arse. 

 

It surely doesn't take much working out.

 

Leaver voters are being agitated to correspond with their MPs in order to express their view that the deal should be backed to ensure Brexit actually happens in some form.    The implicit message to these MPs is that you better listen to the voters because if you don't and Brexit ends up being prevented,   these people will be furious and will vote you out of your seat.

 

This is a rancid abuse of democracy in my view.    It brings into direpute the very notion that parliament is sovereign.

 

If Tory high command is genuinely concerned that some MPs might not be representing a majority view in their constituencies,   they should suddenly find some guts and call a general election and campaign the local party committees to deselect the MPs.

[shaun.lawson]

Thread.

 

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

3 hours ago, Victorian said:

Rant my arse. 

 

It surely doesn't take much working out.

 

Leaver voters are being agitated to correspond with their MPs in order to express their view that the deal should be backed to ensure Brexit actually happens in some form.    The implicit message to these MPs is that you better listen to the voters because if you don't and Brexit ends up being prevented,   these people will be furious and will vote you out of your seat.

 

This is a rancid abuse of democracy in my view.    It brings into direpute the very notion that parliament is sovereign.

 

If Tory high command is genuinely concerned that some MPs might not be representing a majority view in their constituencies,   they should suddenly find some guts and call a general election and campaign the local party committees to deselect the MPs.

 

Oh it's a rant alright. But as I suggested we are in some sort of agreement although your frothing makes it a little hard to decipher properly! ?

[Seymour M Hersh]

On 01/12/2018 at 11:08, shaun.lawson said:

Thread.

 

 

 

As usual snoreson, stupid is as stupid does with you. You clearly don't realise we are still in the EU. Until 

[Mikey1874]

4 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Was very critical on TV this morning of the way the EU has treated the UK, basically saying they took our money, over billion €'s, took our technology and then told the UK TGF, also said that this is the way the EU will treat the UK from now on.

 

He's a remainer but said there are now only two choices, either all in or all out and stopped just short of accusing May of misleading the British people of this non deal.

 

 

[Victorian]

22 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Oh it's a rant alright. But as I suggested we are in some sort of agreement although your frothing makes it a little hard to decipher properly! ?

 

You're getting a wee bit excited with yourself if you think that's a rant.     A bit ridiculous to be honest.

[ri Alban]

Legal advice is gonnae lose May her job. She'll be gone very soon.

[The Mighty Thor]

12 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Legal advice is gonnae lose May her job. She'll be gone very soon.

Read that this morning. 

It'll be interesting to see whether Bercow rules on it first and foremost and secondly how that vote would go?

 

She's trying to pull a fast one, just like she did with the devolved powers in the withdrawal bill.

 

[ri Alban]

4 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Read that this morning. 

It'll be interesting to see whether Bercow rules on it first and foremost and secondly how that vote would go?

 

She's trying to pull a fast one, just like she did with the devolved powers in the withdrawal bill.

 

She's acted like a dictator from day one of Brexit. She didn't ever want cross party help and went to the country expecting a landslide. The country gave a minority and a message of coalition. Her response, feck you, and £1b to the flat earthers.  She needs the jail.

 

Edited December 2, 2018 by ri Alban

[shaun.lawson]

On 01/12/2018 at 12:23, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

As usual snoreson, stupid is as stupid does with you. You clearly don't realise we are still in the EU. Until March next year. 

 

As usual Seymour, stupid is as stupid does with you. You clearly don't realise that we still don't have a deal, time is running out, so suppliers are frantically stockpiling medicines. Brexiteers invariably have no clue whatsoever about consequences, after all.

 

That you can be that oblivious and that uncaring about others doesn't surprise me one bit. You are, after all, a Liverpool fan (sic) who is also a Thatcherite (!) and Brexit supporter (!!). In other words, you couldn't give a damn about either the city of Liverpool or its people. The only thing you're interested in is yourself. If others die - and they will - who cares, eh?

[Seymour M Hersh]

15 hours ago, Victorian said:

 

You're getting a wee bit excited with yourself if you think that's a rant.     A bit ridiculous to be honest.

 

If asking for clarity in what you're trying to say is ridiculous then so be it! 

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

As usual Seymour, stupid is as stupid does with you. You clearly don't realise that we still don't have a deal, time is running out, so suppliers are frantically stockpiling medicines. Brexiteers invariably have no clue whatsoever about consequences, after all.

 

That you can be that oblivious and that uncaring about others doesn't surprise me one bit. You are, after all, a Liverpool fan (sic) who is also a Thatcherite (!) and Brexit supporter (!!). In other words, you couldn't give a damn about either the city of Liverpool or its people. The only thing you're interested in is yourself. If others die - and they will - who cares, eh?

[shaun.lawson]

Imagine:

 

1. Not agreeing with every last word of this

 

2. Continuing to vote for these pricks.

 

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/mike-harding-reads-his-viral-letter-to-theresa-may/