Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[deesidejambo]

Eck will get caned.     He will start with smug denigration of "Tory Toffs" etc, and no doubt will find a way to denigrate Liberals in a smug way that amuses those who can't think for themselves, like he did in the referendum.

 

The people of Gordon are not the schemie types that vote in this way though, they will see through it and if he goes with the smarmy "The political Will of the People will not be defeated" or the "Three Amigos" nonsense, he will alienate thinking people.

 

He should have stood in Dundee or Weeg to have any chance - that is where he can woo the DE voters with the "we hate Tories" campaign.

[Boris]

In which case it is incredibly brave of Salmond to stand in a seat that you say he has no chance of winning.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Boris

[Gorgiewave]

In which case it is incredibly brave of Salmond to stand in a seat that you say he has no chance of winning.

 

Incredibly brave. The dentist will give him a sticker for it.

 

Salmond is a selfish, self-obsessed loud mouth who will get his compeuppance as soon as he is against serious politicians. I think Gordon Brown would have destroyed him.

[girvanjambo]

Mentioning Alex Salmond certainly can start debates.

 

Personally, I think he's easily the best Scottish politician of his era, by some distance.

 

He'll win that Gordon seat by a country mile, and remember, that is a Lib Dem seat at present, Menzies Campbell is retiring, but they could put any candidate up and still lose handsomely.

 

Too many people thought the referendum was about Salmond, when in fact, as he said himself, it was far more important than that.

 

The amount of people I personally heard saying  'I'm voting No cos I don't like Alex Salmond', drove me to despair.  

[TheMaganator]

Mentioning Alex Salmond certainly can start debates.

 

Personally, I think he's easily the best Scottish politician of his era, by some distance.

 

He'll win that Gordon seat by a country mile, and remember, that is a Lib Dem seat at present, Menzies Campbell is retiring, but they could put any candidate up and still lose handsomely.

 

Too many people thought the referendum was about Salmond, when in fact, as he said himself, it was far more important than that.

 

The amount of people I personally heard saying  'I'm voting No cos I don't like Alex Salmond', drove me to despair.  

Not to get this too far off topic - but had we voted Yes Salmond would have led the negotiations. As he said himself,  a Yes vote would have given him the democratic mandate to negotiate our separation on the terms of the White Paper. The White Paper was a SNP manifesto. A Yes vote was voting for their vision (as a starting point) of an independent Scotland. 

 

A Yes vote was absolutely a vote for Salmond and the SNP short-medium term. We's have been stuck with what he negotiated in terms of currency, defence etc for at least a decade, best case scenario. They could have got around this by doing a couple of things - they didn't One of the many reasons they lost. 

[Maroon Sailor]

Mentioning Alex Salmond certainly can start debates.

 

Personally, I think he's easily the best Scottish politician of his era, by some distance.

 

He'll win that Gordon seat by a country mile, and remember, that is a Lib Dem seat at present, Menzies Campbell is retiring, but they could put any candidate up and still lose handsomely.

 

Too many people thought the referendum was about Salmond, when in fact, as he said himself, it was far more important than that.

 

The amount of people I personally heard saying  'I'm voting No cos I don't like Alex Salmond', drove me to despair.

 

You are right when you say it was far more important than Salmond.

 

Hence the No vote getting over the line.

[smallfaces]

http://m.scotsman.com/news/uk/snp-would-back-labour-on-vote-by-vote-basis-1-3628346

 

There seems to be a whole series of misprint in this article. Surely the leader of the SNP would be the one declaring who or what the SNP would support, no?

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

 

 

Tick tock to what?[/quote

 

The end of the Union.

 

Ah, got you.

 

Sorry, for some reason I had it in my head that there'd just been a referendum and the country voted no.

[Psychedelicropcircle]

 

Labour voters who voted yes will by in large still vote Labour. That's what they are. And 20-30% is a small fraction of a party.

 

I am one of the above who'll unlikely vote for labour 2015-2016. labour from the off didn't even entertain its scottish members having a conversation about independence. It was clear to me that the most important thing about keeping scotland in the union to labour was its "banker" seats in scotland. This read to me as the party first people second. Followed on by MSPs playing a lighter roll in the better together campaign and MPs brought up from London ( darling murphy) to play a bigger part. It was obvious to me before lamonts branch office comment that it was just that. Predictions for the future murphy will be next boss, he'll puff his chest out and say it's his ball but it'll be westminsters really. This is why I'll most likely vote SNP the next two elections as they can steer the boat in the direction that suites them as appose to labour answering to big london brother before steering......all IMO of course.

[TheMaganator]

^^

Does it not bother you that many SNP policies are right of centre, though? Of the many tricks the SNP have manage to play the biggest one was convincing people that they are a left wing party IMO

Edited December 8, 2014 by TheMaganator

[TheMaganator]

.

Edited December 8, 2014 by TheMaganator

[The Comedian]

Surely Salmond remaining in politics is good for the haters who are utterly obsessed with the man.

[JamboX2]

In which case it is incredibly brave of Salmond to stand in a seat that you say he has no chance of winning.

Both the Scotland on Sunday and Observor said yesterday he ducked facing a fight in the central belt and Edinburgh for the Gordon seat. He won't loose.

[Boris]

Both the Scotland on Sunday and Observor said yesterday he ducked facing a fight in the central belt and Edinburgh for the Gordon seat. He won't loose.

Of course he won't. That was my point.

[Seymour M Hersh]

Surely Salmond remaining in politics is good for the haters who are utterly obsessed with the man.

 

Possibly but if he's elected to Westminster again it won't be great for Jimmy Krankie and her gang because fat boy will be hogging the limelite and media again. Which if we're all honest about it is all he wants. 

[JamboX2]

Of course he won't. That was my point.

Apologies Boris. Didn't get the jist of the post.

 

I get why folk like Salmond and why he's been popular. But he's been blessed with his opponents and with his allies. No one in the SNP compares to him. His cabinet were pigmies compared to him. In fact I think Sturgeon a more honest politician but she's not got that presence in the Chamber at FMQs that he did. The fact is Murphy will get more out of her than he'd have got from Eck.

 

Whilst I voted Findlay, I wouldn't be opposed to Murphy as much as I thought. His proposed education reforms over the weekend are exactly the rigour lacking from the CforE and also actually address falling standards. Sturgeon might've taken this job at the bad point. No referendum to cover up increasingly poor health and educational outcomes that have grown under the SNP with little reform or action to address this by Salmond.

 

A case of 'We've crashed the bus' let us fix it may haunt and taint them come 2016. Which for both Scottish Labour and the SNP is the real goal.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

That was 3 months ago, time the No voters moved on maybe?

 

How soon are you expecting another referendum like?

 

The country voted no, that should be then end of that for a long, long time.

[Gorgiewave]

Apologies Boris. Didn't get the jist of the post.

 

I get why folk like Salmond and why he's been popular. But he's been blessed with his opponents and with his allies. No one in the SNP compares to him. His cabinet were pigmies compared to him. In fact I think Sturgeon a more honest politician but she's not got that presence in the Chamber at FMQs that he did. The fact is Murphy will get more out of her than he'd have got from Eck.

 

Whilst I voted Findlay, I wouldn't be opposed to Murphy as much as I thought. His proposed education reforms over the weekend are exactly the rigour lacking from the CforE and also actually address falling standards. Sturgeon might've taken this job at the bad point. No referendum to cover up increasingly poor health and educational outcomes that have grown under the SNP with little reform or action to address this by Salmond.

 

A case of 'We've crashed the bus' let us fix it may haunt and taint them come 2016. Which for both Scottish Labour and the SNP is the real goal.

 

This is one of the best things about Murphy. Findlay might put protecting unions before standards.

[JamboX2]

This is one of the best things about Murphy. Findlay might put protecting unions before standards.

Dunno about that. Murphy basically wants to bring back chartered teaching and HMIE. The EIS has wanted this since the SNP abolished them.

[Gorgiewave]

Dunno about that. Murphy basically wants to bring back chartered teaching and HMIE. The EIS has wanted this since the SNP abolished them.

 

I got that directly from a person who is in frequent contact with Findlay and voted for him.

[JamboX2]

I got that directly from a person who is in frequent contact with Findlay and voted for him.

Doesn't surprise me with Findlay. But it doesn't need to be pro-unions or pro-Blairism. The middle road of improving workers rights alongside improving standards is the route to take.

[Gorgiewave]

Doesn't surprise me with Findlay. But it doesn't need to be pro-unions or pro-Blairism. The middle road of improving workers rights alongside improving standards is the route to take.

 

Aye, I agree, but rigour is badly needed after this CfE bullshit.

[Guest Trapper John]

I see a Populus poll tonight has Labour only 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.

 

Keep up the good work, Eck and Co.. 

[Gorgiewave]

I see a Populus poll tonight has Labour only 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.

 

Keep up the good work, Eck and Co.. 

 

Where did you see this good news?

 

Good tip about the Gerry Hassan article.

[JamboX2]

I see a Populus poll tonight has Labour only 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.

 

Keep up the good work, Eck and Co..

Holyrood or Westminster voting intentions?

 

I think it'll be tight vote in Scotland in terms of the result.

 

Newsnight tonight saying both Labour and the Tories are planning for minority government for 18-24 months and then going back to the polls if it should look like they can get a majority by a return to the polls.

[Ulysses]

Holyrood or Westminster voting intentions?

 

 

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/12/08/lab-running-just-3-behind-snp-in-scotland-according-to-the-populus-november-aggregate/

 

The story, as ever, is more complicated than the headline.

[Guest Trapper John]

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/12/08/lab-running-just-3-behind-snp-in-scotland-according-to-the-populus-november-aggregate/

 

The story, as ever, is more complicated than the headline.

 

Possibly correct as you say but it also indicates that the SNP's overconfidence and bluster could well be misplaced.

[Guest Trapper John]

Where did you see this good news?

 

Good tip about the Gerry Hassan article.

 

Fascinating reading it is. 

[Homme]

"If you can't beat 'em, join 'em"

[Psychedelicropcircle]

^^

Does it not bother you that many SNP policies are right of centre, though? Of the many tricks the SNP have manage to play the biggest one was convincing people that they are a left wing party IMO

 

Much like the Labour Party hypocrites pretending to be socialists!

[TheMaganator]

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/12/08/lab-running-just-3-behind-snp-in-scotland-according-to-the-populus-november-aggregate/

 

The story, as ever, is more complicated than the headline.

I thought the Tories were meant to be an irrelevance in Scotland?

[Ulysses]

Possibly correct as you say but it also indicates that the SNP's overconfidence and bluster could well be misplaced.

It is genuinely interesting from an amateur psephologist's point of view - and also a fascinating study for political scientists.

 

The full polls in Scotland show a radical shift in support for the SNP and Labour for Westminster elections following the referendum. The sub-samples from the UK-wide Populus polling show a shift on a significant but smaller scale - but their polls tend to overestimate the level of Labour and Conservative support compared to other pollsters.

 

Either way the shift is interesting. And then there's the question of whether it can be maintained through to May. I think it can, but the SNP have been in territory like this before and didn't get the breakthrough they expected, so I may well be wrong.

[Boris]

Do we not have fixed term parliaments now?

 

EDIT - I see there are a couple of circumstances where you could call an early election but you need 2/3rds of the House to Vote for it.

 

Or a simple vote of no confidence, I think.  Probably easy to get if you are a minority Govt.

[Boris]

Not if you are a minority government who would now win a majority in a snap election as outlined above.

 

 

 

The act provides for general elections to be held on the first Thursday in May every five years. There are two provisions that trigger an election other than at five year intervals.

• A motion of no confidence is passed in Her Majesty's Government by a simple majority and 14 days elapses without the House passing a confidence motion in any new Government formed

A motion for a general election is agreed by two thirds of the total number of seats in the Commons including vacant seats (currently 434 out of 650)

from http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/

 

[jambo1185]

2 to 1 against Salmond being the next deputy prime minister!

 

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

(also, note that UKIP still predicted to return no MPs despite just under 20% vote share - for another thread though)

[Boris]

I get that, but it was claimed on Newsnight(according to another poster) that the Red/Blue Tories would be happy to run with a minority government until such a time as they well ahead in the polls, if such polls were to show support for the Red or Blue Tories then in a minority situation I am not sure how they would get anyone to back them in the 2/3rds vote or get anyone to vote through the no confidence motion.

 

You could put forward a piece of legislation so abhorent to the others (for example the renationalisation of utilities - I'd like that obviously, but I doubt it would pass the house if a minority govt) and tack on a no confidence motion to it and wait and see.

 

I suppose the problem is that the other parties would see it as politiking and so may form a new govt and vote confidence in it in the 14 day window.

 

I agree though, highly unlikely!

[2NaFish]

Tories in power, although a minority, and labour refuse to go with a vote of no confidence. They look weak, indecisive and it can be played that they are harming the country by not allowing a new general election and, presumably, majority/coalition government.

 

Same goes the other way around. Two sides of the same arsecheek/Old Firm, etc.

Edited December 9, 2014 by 2NaFish

[2NaFish]

It kind of goes against the whole idea of having fixed term parliaments. I think they will stick to them in general and will only be in situations where a government collapses, like enough MPs defecting to negate a majority, that the No Confidence situation would be used.

 

 

I'm inclined to agree. A vote of no confidence has repercussions, and is a catch-22. The better you're doing the less likely you are to be able to manipulate one.

[Boris]

It kind of goes against the whole idea of having fixed term parliaments. I think they will stick to them in general and will only be in situations where a government collapses, like enough MPs defecting to negate a majority, that the No Confidence situation would be used.

I agree too.  Actually, if you are doing well as a minority Govt then playing "by the rules" should see you ok at the next election.  See the SNP at Holyrood for example.

 

Interesting times though.  The idea of Salmond being elected and then getting Deputy PM is hilarious as it is absurd.

[jambo1185]

I agree too.  Actually, if you are doing well as a minority Govt then playing "by the rules" should see you ok at the next election.  See the SNP at Holyrood for example.

 

Interesting times though.  The idea of Salmond being elected and then getting Deputy PM is hilarious as it is absurd.

 

He'd take office solely to hold people's feet to the fire of course, although he be so close to the action he'd need to watch his fingers don't get burnt.

[TheMaganator]

The last vote of no confidence the SNP supported ended up being a great success for Scotland...

 

The SNP - the party that helped bring Scotland Thatcher.

[jambo1185]

It is very unlikely that he would be offered any position in a UK Government, just as unlikely he would take it. They are going to make pretty useless King-makers these SNP MPs as it looks likely that they will agree among themselves not to vote on English only issues.

 

That's something I was wondering Brian, Labour would surely want a (informal?) coalition partner it can rely on consistently in the house. The SNP, from what I can gather as being their position on English/rUK only issues, can't provide that. So their king-maker position will only be in relation to votes (i) impacting Scotland, and (ii) where it's actually needed and Labour can't get over the line with the help of others (the remnants of the Lib Debs, Plaid etc...). Does that really give them a balance of power?

Edited December 9, 2014 by jambo1185

[Boris]

The last vote of no confidence the SNP supported ended up being a great success for Scotland...

 

The SNP - the party that helped bring Scotland Thatcher.

 

Funny, I thought it was the UK electorate that did that.  Love how that is used as an attack on the SNP.  It reeks of desperation, imo.

[TheMaganator]

Funny, I thought it was the UK electorate that did that.  Love how that is used as an attack on the SNP.  It reeks of desperation, imo.

 

You have become very quick to defend the SNP, Boris. 

 

There are consequences to your actions. A consequence of the SNP's actions was bringing in the Thatcher administration. They didn't have to support it, but they did.

 

It is a fact that you rarely see acknowledged by the SNP or their supporters. 

[jambo1185]

And it cost them 9 MPs at the General Election, I'm really not sure how that is relevant to either Alex Salmond or the current SNP leadership. 

 

Also did it not only bring forward the election by a few months? So did it really alter the result.

 

It's only relevant to the extent the SNP harp on about Thatcher, which isn't that often anymore, although it still pops up from time to time. All parties have histories, some longer than others, all with good bits and bad bits. I don't see why the past should be a fair stick to beat the current party with, things change.

[TheMaganator]

And it cost them 9 MPs at the General Election, I'm really not sure how that is relevant to either Alex Salmond or the current SNP leadership.

 

Also did it not only bring forward the election by a few months? So did it really alter the result.

If the current leadership are going to use Thatcher as a stick to beat the Union (which they did through the referendum) - then the part their party played in bringing her to power is also fair game IMO

[Boris]

 

You have become very quick to defend the SNP, Boris. 

 

There are consequences to your actions. A consequence of the SNP's actions was bringing in the Thatcher administration. They didn't have to support it, but they did.

 

It is a fact that you rarely see acknowledged by the SNP or their supporters. 

So we have Thatcher (then Major) to blame for Blair, which led to devolution so really the SNP got us devolution?

 

Am I doing this right?

 

[RosscoC]

The last vote of no confidence the SNP supported ended up being a great success for Scotland...

 

The SNP - the party that helped bring Scotland Thatcher.

I don't think you have ever mentioned this before. Edited December 9, 2014 by RosscoC

[RosscoC]

.

Edited December 9, 2014 by RosscoC

[Boris]

The last vote of no confidence the SNP supported ended up being a great success for Scotland...

 

The SNP - the party that helped bring Scotland Thatcher.

 

Glad to hear you make your thoughts public as to what a witch that woman was though.

 

It's encouraging to hear modern Conservatives excorcise the demons that haunt their party.  If only your leadership were as bold to stop the hagiographies and tell it like it was.

 

I see even the OECD have come to the conclusion that trickle down economics were/are shite.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/09/revealed-wealth-gap-oecd-report