House Prices in Edinburgh

[coppercrutch]

I didn't say I don't know the dodges, I just don't do them. It will only come back and bite you hard on the arse if you do, and the FSA are hard enough to keep happy at the best of times without having them on your case for dodgy mortgages.

 

As for missing a debt here and there, you cant really miss a debt because a full credit search by a lender will show what credit someone has, and if they don't declare something then a lender quite rightly gets suspicious and wants to know why.

 

It's a lot easier to add a number here and there to figures such as salary, especially for fast track mortgages where hardly any checks are made (which I don't agree with) to actually check their salary. I reckon at least one pay slip, or an employers reference should be asked for in all cases as some sort of proof. I would certainly never get into that nonsense because I really don't fancy chucking my career down the pan, and having the fraud squad at my door and I've walked away from quite a few mortgages because of what a client asks me to falsify.

 

I am sure you are one of the good uns. The question is how many of hte dodgy ones are there out there, and how many people now have mortgages they simply can't afford...

 

Thread below is very interesting. The new 'name' for these is 'liar loans' I think. Reckon we will be hearing a lot about this very soon.

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=84386

[coppercrutch]

Interestingly, in Japan, where land is at a premium and property prices absolutely insane, 50 year and even 75 year mortgages are not unusual - you pass your debt down to your children and grandchildren, who may one day manage to pay it off and own their home outright (though with many homes built from wood due to the risk of earthquake, it's the land that's the important aspect of the deal).

 

I suspect that if we're to see your option 2 in effect in Britain, lenders will have to adopt longer mortgage terms - and, crucially, buyers will have to accept these terms. And somehow I don't see the latter happening.

 

Interesting idea. Again as you say I don't think the appetite is there for such huge life changing loans. Why should people have massive lifetime loans simpy to own a wee block of bricks ? Who really benefits ? The only people who really seem to benfit from this are the Banks. Now there is a surprise.....

 

Your example of Japan is a good one though. They recently had what was probably the World's longest, deepest and most painful house price crash ever..

 

Indeed.

 

In some ways I accept CC is right in that the Edinburgh market is going to level off. However, I don't believe people will end up in negative equity. A flat that sells for $100,000 (apologies, but keyboards here don't have pound signs) this year may still be $100,000 next year. Clearly, next year $100,000 won't buy you as much as it will this year. Inflation sees to that.

 

I'm fortunate (OK, some would say unfortunate) that I live in Falkirk and am not exposed to this. The market there is pretty good just now - not brilliant, but better than most - is predicted to get better in the current climate. Improvements in public transport, new retail/leisure developments and the new Forth Valley Hospital on my doorstep add to this. At circa $75k my 2 bedroom tenement flat is currently worth just over half to two-thirds of what a similar flat in Polworth will set you back.

 

Buyers frozen out of Edinburgh (and Glasgow) because their deposits are not big enough are looking to the commuter towns where their deposits go much further. I can travel from Camelon to my work in Edinburgh city centre in 45 minutes. Colleagues I work with take longer traveling in from Musselburgh and East Craigs respectively. So what are the benefits of living in Edinburgh? This penny is starting to drop with alot of people.

 

Have been looking at your area recently. It is way way more affordable than Edinburgh. I do not reckon you will see huge falls around your way. Simply because you have not had the same sort of silly rises. Prices in Edinburgh should be higher than in Falkirk. That makes sense. However the difference today is insane. As you say the difference in a 2 bed flat is about 80k (Depending on area of course). I reckon in a few years it will be closer to half that, as it probably should.

 

Two bedder in Falkirk about 60-70k. Two bedder in Edinburgh about 90-100k ?

 

I can see that.

[Jambo83]

Maybe am just out the loop due to being in the fortunate position of being mortgage free but I find it hard to believe that if I went to a mortgage lender tomorrow and asked for 3.1/2 times my salary to buy a house, a figure that historically has been the maximum lending limit, they wouldn’t be interested in dealing with me.

 

The thing is 3.1/2 times my salary currently wouldn’t get me the house I would be looking to buy, but is that the mortgage lenders fault?

 

Lending is not based on income multiples anymore mate, it's based on affordability. A lender will now look at your incomings against outgoings and make a decision on how much per month you can afford, and then measure that against how much money you can borrow.

 

Hope that makes sense.

 

But that is the problem is it not ?

 

These 'affordability calculators' only came in about 2003 (Ish).

 

Before that the 3.5 salary/5% deposit minimum worked perfectly well. Instead of letting the house price increas stop at a sensible level, they introduced new rules to allow people to borrow more.

 

We all know what happens with these 'affordability' calculations. Many mortgage salespeople have been pushed for more sales. They have taken advantage of this to wangle the system to give people more money than they can actually afford. I am sure you know of this.

 

Wangling a basic 3.5 X salary system must be a whole lot more difficult.

 

So you reckon the lenders will go back to this soon Mr Mitchell ? Or have some already started ?

 

I can't talk for every mortgage lender, but i'm a Mortgage Underwriter within HBOS and we don't just income multiples & monthly affordability. It's a combination of these factors and more, but these two are certainly the main one's.

 

A borrowing amount up to 5x someone's income is not rare, aslong as they can afford the monthly payment. I wouldn't want to borrow that much personally, but some people are happy to do it, and some even want slighly more.

 

Our lending criteria as such hasn't really changed over the last couple of years, we are just slightly more vigilant in our decision making.

[The Brow]

I am sure you are one of the good uns. The question is how many of hte dodgy ones are there out there, and how many people now have mortgages they simply can't afford...

 

Thread below is very interesting. The new 'name' for these is 'liar loans' I think. Reckon we will be hearing a lot about this very soon.

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=84386

 

If someone gets one of these 'liar loans' then they get what they deserve when their house is repossessed. If an grown adult claims that they didnt know they were not declaring everything they should have then they are eejits. Its about time people started becoming accountable for their actions.

 

Or is that too hardline?

[coppercrutch]

I can't talk for every mortgage lender, but i'm a Mortgage Underwriter within HBOS and we don't just income multiples & monthly affordability. It's a combination of these factors and more, but these two are certainly the main one's.

 

A borrowing amount up to 5x someone's income is not rare, as long as they can afford the monthly payment. I wouldn't want to borrow that much personally, but some people are happy to do it, and some even want slighly more.

 

Our lending criteria as such hasn't really changed over the last couple of years, we are just slightly more vigilant in our decision making.

 

Cheers for that. Interesting that you say your decisions have not changed much. So where does that put the 'No-one can get a mortgage anymore' theory ?

 

Anyway I think the main problem is hte one I have highlighted in bold. I am sure these people can just afford these monthly payments up until this year. In a 'booming' Britain, everyone can get a job, everyone can get as much credit as they want, historically low interest rates, stable(Ish) econimic climate etc...

 

Problem being this is changing, and yet these monthly payements are still going to be due for maybe another 288 months....

 

Borrowing as much as you can in the 'good times' and planning to pay this back during the 'bad times' is insanity. People in this country don't think ahead. Serious problems for UKPLC soon. Governor of BoE saying today it could go down the Japan route. 10+ years of pain....

 

 

If someone gets one of these 'liar loans' then they get what they deserve when their house is repossessed. If an grown adult claims that they didnt know they were not declaring everything they should have then they are eejits. Its about time people started becoming accountable for their actions.

 

Or is that too hardline?

 

Nope. **** them. They, along with the Banks, property rampers and the Governments are responsible for this mess.

 

As you say though - most of thee individuals will no doubt cry "Poor me, please help me out - the credit crunch caused all this mess".

 

The fact is people's stupidity and greed has caused this mess.

 

Sad state of affairs really.

[Jambo83]

Cheers for that. Interesting that you say your decisions have not changed much. So where does that put the 'No-one can get a mortgage anymore' theory ?

 

Anyway I think the main problem is hte one I have highlighted in bold. I am sure these people can just afford these monthly payments up until this year. In a 'booming' Britain, everyone can get a job, everyone can get as much credit as they want, historically low interest rates, stable(Ish) econimic climate etc...

 

Problem being this is changing, and yet these monthly payements are still going to be due for maybe another 288 months....

 

Borrowing as much as you can in the 'good times' and planning to pay this back during the 'bad times' is insanity. People in this country don't think ahead. Serious problems for UKPLC soon. Governor of BoE saying today it could go down the Japan route. 10+ years of pain....

 

 

 

 

Nope. **** them. They, along with the Banks, property rampers and the Governments are responsible for this mess.

 

As you say though - most of thee individuals will no doubt cry "Poor me, please help me out - the credit crunch caused all this mess".

 

The fact is people's stupidity and greed has caused this mess.

 

Sad state of affairs really.

 

I would say the first bit in bold is a lot of rubbish in my book. You can get a mortgage no problem as long as you have a decent credit score and aren't up to your eyes in debt (providing you also have the deposit) As a first time buyer last year, getting my mortgage was simple, but my parents gifted my 3% deposit.

 

One person looking to borrow 5x their income with no other debt could easily be better off than a person borrowing 3x their income but who has credit cards & car loans etc etc. That was my point regarding affordability up to 5x income.

 

One thing your right about though, is that banks will have to take into account the rising costs of pretty much everything that's NOT on a credit file, petrol, food, gas, electricity, insurance......

 

P.S Your also spot on about these "liar loans", feck them!! In my experience though, PA's & the bank's mortgage sales people are just as much to blame as the actual customers.

[coppercrutch]

I would say the first bit in bold is a lot of rubbish in my book. You can get a mortgage no problem as long as you have a decent credit score and aren't up to your eyes in debt (providing you also have the deposit) As a first time buyer last year, getting my mortgage was simple, but my parents gifted my 3% deposit.

 

One person looking to borrow 5x their income with no other debt could easily be better off than a person borrowing 3x their income but who has credit cards & car loans etc etc. That was my point regarding affordability up to 5x income.

 

One thing your right about though, is that banks will have to take into account the rising costs of pretty much everything that's NOT on a credit file, petrol, food, gas, electricity, insurance......

 

P.S Your also spot on about these "liar loans", feck them!! In my experience though, PA's & the bank's mortgage sales people are just as much to blame as the actual customers.

 

 

Cheers for the info. I see how the affordablity thing is in theory a good idea. I just reckon it is too open to abuse. Simplest plans always work best.

 

As you say mortgages are there if you meet the right criteria and don't need to borrow too much.

 

Either people start to earn a lot more*, their debts get paid off, banks start lending 100%+ mortgages again, or house prices come down to meet what people can actually afford.

 

I know which one I would stick my cash on.

 

*Could happen if rampant inflation kicks off.

[this_is_my_story]

Cheers for that. Interesting that you say your decisions have not changed much. So where does that put the 'No-one can get a mortgage anymore' theory ?

 

Anyway I think the main problem is hte one I have highlighted in bold. I am sure these people can just afford these monthly payments up until this year. In a 'booming' Britain, everyone can get a job, everyone can get as much credit as they want, historically low interest rates, stable(Ish) econimic climate etc...

 

Problem being this is changing, and yet these monthly payements are still going to be due for maybe another 288 months....

 

Borrowing as much as you can in the 'good times' and planning to pay this back during the 'bad times' is insanity. People in this country don't think ahead. Serious problems for UKPLC soon. Governor of BoE saying today it could go down the Japan route. 10+ years of pain....

 

 

 

 

Nope. **** them. They, along with the Banks, property rampers and the Governments are responsible for this mess.

 

As you say though - most of thee individuals will no doubt cry "Poor me, please help me out - the credit crunch caused all this mess".

 

The fact is people's stupidity and greed has caused this mess.

 

 

Sad state of affairs really.

 

Said without a hint of irony. Brilliant.

 

(only the last bit in bold, that is!)

[coppercrutch]

What you are saying about Banks having to take more notice of rising living costs etc.. Is there any sign of that happening where you are ? I know you said you are all being more stringent than before but any sign of real changes ?

 

Cheers

[coppercrutch]

Said without a hint of irony. Brilliant.

 

(only the last bit in bold, that is!)

 

Not sure what you mean ? Irony in what sense ?

[coppercrutch]

Cheers for that. I especially agree with the bit in bold.

 

I have been on a few other forums's for ages now. A few were saying that when this all starts off the Estate Agents will be in denial/still go for stupid prices etc..

 

However they reckon once it starts to kick in the EA's will be the first to push prices down. They need the commision and a sale is a sale no matter what the price. Apparently there are EA's in England who are only taking on vendors who will be realistic about prices. They see no point marketing someone's house and putting the effort in if the price they want is not realistic. I can see the logic in that.

 

I think in Edinburgh the penny has finally dropped.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/latestnews/Housing-slump-hits-Capital-market.4435239.jp#3170841

 

The realisation that sales are the important thing has finally hit home. Also interesting to see the ESPC setting us up for YOY falls in Edinburgh come September. Some change from their last 2 forecasts..

 

The interesting thing is the way these figures are being used. They actually appear to show the average price rising.

 

However instead of focussing on that (Like they would have done previously) they focus on the sharp drop in sales - and the fact that the 'average' price is distorting the figures. Now where have I heard that before..

 

The sooner this all gets started, people realise the score, and change their expectations accordingly - the better for everyone.

 

As I have said numerous times before expect 30-50% real falls in prices. If that doesn't happen I would be staggered. Whatever is most overpriced will be hit hardest. Whatever is most reasonably priced will be hit softest. Simple logic really.

 

Lets hope it is over in 2 -4 years. If Brown and co. try to get involved they could send us into a Japan style 20 year tailspin. I would like to still have employment...

[Peebo]

The interesting thing is the way these figures are being used. They actually appear to show the average price rising.

 

Interesting, indeed. The average house price, which is widely used as a barometer for house prices, is still rising.

 

For which month did you predict this figure would first show a decline in average prices in Edinburgh?

[coppercrutch]

Interesting, indeed. The average house price, which is widely used as a barometer for house prices, is still rising.

 

For which month did you predict this figure would first show a decline in average prices in Edinburgh?

 

For the ESPC - I predicted the previous report rather than the next one, so not too far out !!

 

However I did predict a fall showing for this year. Their resident 'experts' did no such thing.

 

I never really figured on this 'skewing' effect until a few months ago.

 

In reality I would say house prices in Edinburgh have been falling since August 2007.

[Peebo]

For the ESPC - I predicted the previous report rather than the next one, so not too far out !!

 

However I did predict a fall showing for this year. Their resident 'experts' did no such thing.

 

I never really figured on this 'skewing' effect until a few months ago.

 

In reality I would say house prices in Edinburgh have been falling since August 2007.

 

So "the Economist" was wrong, then - FACT. I thought it wasn't rocket science etc. etc. ...blah blah blah...

[coppercrutch]

So "the Economist" was wrong, then - FACT. I thought it wasn't rocket science etc. etc. ...blah blah blah...

 

Clutching at straws Peebo

 

My predictions of what is likely to happen have been pretty **** hot - If I do say so myself...

[jambos are go!]

BBC reporting House prices in Scotland still rising by over 4% and sales down by 20%. Compare this with the figures the prophets of doom were quoting earlier in this thread. Just blatant anti Labour propaganda for all to see.

[Peebo]

Clutching at straws Peebo

 

My predictions of what is likely to happen have been pretty **** hot - If I do say so myself...

 

No need to clutch, me old mucker.

 

Speaking of **** predictions, how's your gold shares doing?

[Munch]

BBC reporting House prices in Scotland still rising by over 4% and sales down by 20%. Compare this with the figures the prophets of doom were quoting earlier in this thread. Just blatant anti Labour propaganda for all to see.

 

Yes i seen that today, and these are official government figures, so no doughting them, so it appears Scotland has bucked the trend prices up 4.8 % over the last year, volumes down 20% not a disaster.

 

At least these figures are true unlike the stuff spouted on the evening news by there best mate D.J Alexander, they spurt out stuff for self preservation. Does anyone know if this guy is involved with Heritor's ?

[Chip Douglas]

Yes i seen that today, and these are official government figures, so no doughting them, so it appears Scotland has bucked the trend prices up 4.8 % over the last year, volumes down 20% not a disaster.

 

At least these figures are true unlike the stuff spouted on the evening news by there best mate D.J Alexander, they spurt out stuff for self preservation. Does anyone know if this guy is involved with Heritor's ?

 

Heritor's are funded by Satan himself and a reduction of 50% in capital values of residential property in Edinburgh are all but guaranteed.

 

This is all that matters.

[Munch]

Heritor's are funded by Satan himself and a reduction of 50% in capital values of residential property in Edinburgh are all but guaranteed.

 

This is all that matters.

 

Cant see it mate, i was thinking along these lines, but all the latest data says other wise, plus when Brown introduces his rescue plan, and lenders are back in the game ( which will be part of browns master plan) i can see things bombing away again.

 

As for Heritor's, i suspect Mr Alexander has a finger in that pie.

[coppercrutch]

BBC reporting House prices in Scotland still rising by over 4% and sales down by 20%. Compare this with the figures the prophets of doom were quoting earlier in this thread. Just blatant anti Labour propaganda for all to see.

 

Anti Labour ? What are you talking about ?!! Please think for yourself.

 

House prices are falling in Scotland. 'Average' house price are rising in Scotland. Even the Estate Agents are now admitting it !! . If you want me to explain how then I will. The denial amongst the public is amazing

 

No need to clutch, me old mucker.

 

Speaking of **** predictions, how's your gold shares doing?

 

Gold shares taken a tanking. Down about 20 %. Still unsure which way they are heading though. Going to hold on for just now. Bit of a gamble - always was !! I can afford to lose it

 

Yes i seen that today, and these are official government figures, so no doughting them, so it appears Scotland has bucked the trend prices up 4.8 % over the last year, volumes down 20% not a disaster.

 

At least these figures are true unlike the stuff spouted on the evening news by there best mate D.J Alexander, they spurt out stuff for self preservation. Does anyone know if this guy is involved with Heritor's ?

 

Please JambosRBarry have a think for yourself !! House prices are not up 4.8%. AVERAGE house prices are up 4.8%. EVEN THE ESTATE AGENSTA RE ADMITTING IT !! As I predicted.

 

Also these figures are from sales that were probably agreed at the start of the year as well. The RoS figures lag the others by about 3 months usually. Expect these to go negative YOY on their next report.

 

Can't believe people are still in denial about all this. It is a little embarrassing really...

[Munch]

Anti Labour ? What are you talking about ?!! Please think for yourself.

 

House prices are falling in Scotland. 'Average' house price are rising in Scotland. Even the Estate Agents are now admitting it !! . If you want me to explain how then I will. The denial amongst the public is amazing

 

 

 

Gold shares taken a tanking. Down about 20 %. Still unsure which way they are heading though. Going to hold on for just now. Bit of a gamble - always was !! I can afford to lose it

 

 

 

Please JambosRBarry have a think for yourself !! House prices are not up 4.8%. AVERAGE house prices are up 4.8%. EVEN THE ESTATE AGENSTA RE ADMITTING IT !! As I predicted.

 

Also these figures are from sales that were probably agreed at the start of the year as well. The RoS figures lag the others by about 3 months usually. Expect these to go negative YOY on their next report.

 

Can't believe people are still in denial about all this. It is a little embarrassing really...

 

I Hear what you are saying however whether they are a couple of months behind or not stats are stats, i am amazed myself with these stats, but have to take them on board, prices are not dropping, i have been looking for a bargain for months, only grunton harbor has dropped significantly, traditional build properties in good residential areas are still in demand, and not really any bargains there.

[coppercrutch]

I Hear what you are saying however whether they are a couple of months behind or not stats are stats, i am amazed myself with these stats, but have to take them on board, prices are not dropping, i have been looking for a bargain for months, only grunton harbor has dropped significantly, traditional build properties in good residential areas are still in demand, and not really any bargains there.

 

I give up !! Prices are dropping. Even the flipping Estate Agents are now saying it !!

 

I will give you an example of exactly how this 'skewing' is happening if you want.

 

As for Heritors I have done a wee investigation into them myself.

 

Have a look at the older threads lots of info there.

[Munch]

I give up !! Prices are dropping. Even the flipping Estate Agents are now saying it !!

 

I will give you an example of exactly how this 'skewing' is happening if you want.

 

As for Heritor's I have done a wee investigation into them myself.

 

Have a look at the older threads lots of info there.

 

I have called 2 estate agents and 2 remax associates this afternoon, all say the same thing the market has steadied and prices are holding and/or are creeping up, sales volumes are up in the last 2 weeks.

 

Top end of the market is very good, buy too let investors have returned in the last 2 weeks, fueling the market, mortgages are a lot easier to get now, and rates are on the way down, I'm sorry to say this but it has bottomed out, they are all saying that things are now on the up.

 

Any way about this Heritor's lot, something ain't right here, there is a conflict off interest issue, between heritor's and D.J. something just does not add up.

[Munch]

More news on the market, i spoke to a mortgage brojer this afternoon who told me he was up to his eyes in it in new mortgage approvals, 95 percents are back at good rates, so are 85 percents buy too lets, the market is going crazy again.

[coppercrutch]

I have called 2 estate agents and 2 remax associates this afternoon, all say the same thing the market has steadied and prices are holding and/or are creeping up, sales volumes are up in the last 2 weeks.

 

Top end of the market is very good, buy too let investors have returned in the last 2 weeks, fueling the market, mortgages are a lot easier to get now, and rates are on the way down, I'm sorry to say this but it has bottomed out, they are all saying that things are now on the up.

 

Any way about this Heritor's lot, something ain't right here, there is a conflict off interest issue, between heritor's and D.J. something just does not add up.

 

You change your mind every day on this matter.

 

This is a long term (As in decades long) event. What takes 10 years to inflate does not 'bottom out' in a matter of months.

 

Good luck to you. Keep your eyes open.

[Munch]

You change your mind every day on this matter.

 

This is a long term (As in decades long) event. What takes 10 years to inflate does not 'bottom out' in a matter of months.

 

Good luck to you. Keep your eyes open.

 

I have been stalling on this for months hoping for big reductions, but there is no reductions just the usual gradual increase in prices, i was hoping for a crash, so i could ideally pick up a 1 bed flat in Gorgie for 80k, not a hope, 125k seems to be the asking price.

[flecktimus]

I have been stalling on this for months hoping for big reductions, but there is no reductions just the usual gradual increase in prices, i was hoping for a crash, so i could ideally pick up a 1 bed flat in Gorgie for 80k, not a hope, 125k seems to be the asking price.

 

Just checked all the houses i am watching and there has been no movement on price or sales. So don?t know what to make of what your sources are saying. Perhaps i will have to give up on that bargain in Edinburgh.

 

Got to say its still pretty bad down south. I have dropped the price of my house From 189000 - 170000 and still can?t get any viewings. Anyway make sure you kept CC in the know.

[coppercrutch]

I have been stalling on this for months hoping for big reductions, but there is no reductions just the usual gradual increase in prices, i was hoping for a crash, so i could ideally pick up a 1 bed flat in Gorgie for 80k, not a hope, 125k seems to be the asking price.

 

Patience FFS !!! This is going to take years. Sit back, save up a good deposit and plan to buy in 2-4 years. One bed flats in Gorgie are already down about 10-15%. Remember what they have advertised is the ASKING price. You don't always get what you ask for.

 

There are currently 23 one bed flats in Gorgie at fixed price of less than 120k. This time last year the 'going price' was 125k. Just need to have a little patience

 

 

 

 

Just checked all the houses i am watching and there has been no movement on price or sales. So don’t know what to make of what your sources are saying. Perhaps i will have to give up on that bargain in Edinburgh.

 

Got to say its still pretty bad down south. I have dropped the price of my house From 189000 - 170000 and still can’t get any viewings. Anyway make sure you kept CC in the know.

 

You actually put any offers in though ? My parents accepted an offer of about 18% lower than 4 valuations after being on the market for almost a year. Nice big house in nice area too. I am sure there are hundreds of others out there in exactly the same situation. Still - personally I wouldn't be buying a house before selling the first one.

 

Remember we are probably 6-9 months behind England on this. People are only just cottoning on. ESPC figures out in October seem certain to show a fall. (Info from ESPC themselves) That will put a real shocker into the 'House prices in Edinburgh have never fallen' mantra. Then at the end of November you will get the Land Registry figures more than likely catching up and showing large YOY falls for Scotland. All along we will be getting monthly Nationwide and Halifax reports saying much the same.

 

Patience is required. Sorry to hear about your house down South. If you were moving in the other direction you would probably be timing it much better. You can only play the hand that is dealt though.

[Deek]

Just checked all the houses i am watching and there has been no movement on price or sales. So don?t know what to make of what your sources are saying. Perhaps i will have to give up on that bargain in Edinburgh.

 

Got to say its still pretty bad down south. I have dropped the price of my house From 189000 - 170000 and still can?t get any viewings. Anyway make sure you kept CC in the know.

 

I did tell you a couple of months ago flecktimus that house prices in Scotland would not react in the same way as England. I would ignore CC and his doom and gloom ramblings, "That lady aint for turning":rolleyes:

 

I also see the US economy grew at a revised 3.3% annually in the second quarter of 2008, much higher than its first estimate of 1.9%. Perhaps things are starting to change for the better.

[Chip Douglas]

I did tell you a couple of months ago flecktimus that house prices in Scotland would not react in the same way as England. I would ignore CC and his doom and gloom ramblings, "That lady aint for turning":rolleyes:

 

I also see the US economy grew at a revised 3.3% annually in the second quarter of 2008, much higher than its first estimate of 1.9%. Perhaps things are starting to change for the better.

 

I'd imagine this "credit crunch" nonsense will be a lingering smell by Easter 2009.

[coppercrutch]

I did tell you a couple of months ago flecktimus that house prices in Scotland would not react in the same way as England. I would ignore CC and his doom and gloom ramblings, "That lady aint for turning":rolleyes:

 

I also see the US economy grew at a revised 3.3% annually in the second quarter of 2008, much higher than its first estimate of 1.9%. Perhaps things are starting to change for the better.

 

House prices falling is a good thing. No doom and gloom about it. As for the economy that is another matter. Still had to come to an end sometime. Greed does this over time. Always has, always will.

 

I'd imagine this "credit crunch" nonsense will be a lingering smell by Easter 2009.

 

The after effects are likely to be with us for a long time. The banks have a bad taste in their mouths when it comes to lending money to those likely to default. Just as the way it should be.

 

This horrible credit binge had to come to an end. The new British ideal of 'I demand it now' has turned this country in a nasty place.

 

The days of people learning to save a bit of cash before splashing it is long overdue. I hope to benefit from this. So I should. None of these debt defaults are my fault. I don't do debt.

[J.T.F.Robertson]

I'd imagine this "credit crunch" nonsense will be a lingering smell by Easter 2009.

 

I foolly(sic) admit to being an ignoramus in all this, but I sincerely doubt something this big will simply go away after a few "minor tweakings" of the old capitalist monetary system. The portents are everywhere, North America, the Far East, even Denmark, ffs. All of this will not disappear in just a few months. You don't have to be an economist, it's common sense.

[Chip Douglas]

I foolly(sic) admit to being an ignoramus in all this, but I sincerely doubt something this big will simply go away after a few "minor tweakings" of the old capitalist monetary system. The portents are everywhere, North America, the Far East, even Denmark, ffs. All of this will not disappear in just a few months. You don't have to be an economist, it's common sense.

 

I should have clarified, I am talking about this within the context of the thread subject.

[coppercrutch]

I foolly(sic) admit to being an ignoramus in all this, but I sincerely doubt something this big will simply go away after a few "minor tweakings" of the old capitalist monetary system. The portents are everywhere, North America, the Far East, even Denmark, ffs. All of this will not disappear in just a few months. You don't have to be an economist, it's common sense.

 

That is where I am coming from.

 

When was the last time the World's financial system was this close to collapse ? 80 years ago ? Yet many people think this situation will all just 'blow over'.

 

I simply do not understand that logic.

[coppercrutch]

I should have clarified, I am talking about this within the context of the thread subject.

 

In a nutshell - this whole 'crunch' is a result of lenders being stupid and giving people money they could not actually afford. You really think when they manage to get themselves back on track (And that looks like being a good while away) the first thing they will do is dive right back in where the problems came from in the first place ?!!

 

Whilst it is possible, as the people running banks are stupid - the chances are they will have learnt their lesson for at least 5-10 years.

[Sherlock]

...personally I wouldn't be buying a house before selling the first one...

 

That should be the case whatever the state of the market.

[coppercrutch]

That should be the case whatever the state of the market.

 

That is what you would think, but loads of folk do the opposite. Mental I reckon.

 

The thought of one mortgage gives me the shivers. Two mortgages.............

[CostaJambo]

My experience this summer would tend to suggest that either the market is not dipping as much as certain posters would have you believe or that the estate agent in question is not training its staff properly.

 

I had been tracking a flat up near Scottish Widows for a couple of months and on holiday in Edinburgh last month called the EA to arrange a viewing only to be told it had been taken off the market that very day as the owner was going to rent it out. I asked the EA to call the owner and advise that they had a genuine buyer interested and they refused. A week later a different person from the same EA called me about a different flat and I managed to persuade the girl to contact the owner of the flat I was originally interested in. She then called me back to say that the owner would be happy to take an offer but the only person in Edinburgh who had keys was the letting agent who had been entrusted to find tenants. I called him and he was obviously reluctant to show me the place despite my assurances that I would honour any contracts he had already signed. I then went back to the EA and despite several follow up calls they never managed to even get me an appointment to see the place so I gave up in the end.

 

When I lived in Spain I looked at estate agency as a job and they are totally bloody ruthless, some of the tricks they pull to get a sale would never wash in UK.

 

Anyway, back to my original point, the EA in question is either incompetent or is still selling enough houses each month as not to have to bother about cases like this.

[J.T.F.Robertson]

That is where I am coming from.

 

When was the last time the World's financial system was this close to collapse ? 80 years ago ? Yet many people think this situation will all just 'blow over'.

 

I simply do not understand that logic.

 

Back then they had a "dust bowl", this time we're losing half the Arctic.

 

I'm only hoping, because out here is predominately oil and gas, that somehow we may escape the worst of the property meltdown. That and the fact, Canadian banks have supposedly adhered to stricter mortgage and loan qualification, criteria.

I do realise though, if the whole thing does go, we're all fecked.

[coppercrutch]

Costa Jambo. All you need to do is speak to anyone who works in an EA office in Edinburgh. Redundancies all round.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/Property-solicitors-slash-workforce-as.4418265.jp

 

Whatever the situation with the flats you looked at - I don't think it had much to do with them selling so much they didn't have to bother.

 

That is sooooooooo 2006.

 

[coppercrutch]

Back then they had a "dust bowl", this time we're losing half the Arctic.

 

I'm only hoping, because out here is predominately oil and gas, that somehow we may escape the worst of the property meltdown. That and the fact, Canadian banks have supposedly adhered to stricter mortgage and loan qualification, criteria.

I do realise though, if the whole thing does go, we're all fecked.

 

I do think Canada looks like a decent bet. Small population, mainly self sufficient, mega resources.

 

Only problem is if other countries get desperate.

 

Property in Canada is generally more reasonable though. Vancouver being one exception. That place is going to crash big style.

 

Where abouts are you ?

[CostaJambo]

Costa Jambo. All you need to do is speak to anyone who works in an EA office in Edinburgh. Redundancies all round.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/Property-solicitors-slash-workforce-as.4418265.jp

 

Whatever the situation with the flats you looked at - I don't think it had much to do with them selling so much they didn't have to bother.

 

That is sooooooooo 2006.

 

 

Fair enough, we can therefore conclude that the other of my reasons is the correct one, i.e. the EA in question doesn't train its staff properly. Personally if I was in that game right now I'd be crawling through glassy ****** to get a sale.

 

N.B. If you read the post again, I didn't actually get to look at the flat!

[Deek]

I do think Canada looks like a decent bet. Small population, mainly self sufficient, mega resources.

 

Only problem is if other countries get desperate.

 

Property in Canada is generally more reasonable though. Vancouver being one exception. That place is going to crash big style.

 

Where abouts are you ?

 

Small population per size perhaps, but 33 million people live there. Last time I was in Toronto is seemed like they all lived around the great lakes.

 

Great country.

[blairdin]

House prices falling is a good thing. No doom and gloom about it. As for the economy that is another matter. Still had to come to an end sometime. Greed does this over time. Always has, always will.

 

I'm sorry CC, you make some interesting points but I think this is nonsense!

 

It might suit your agenda, but that would be an absolute disaster for those people who have have put everything they have into getting onto the property market in the last 2 years.

 

As it happens, the housing markets in England and Scotland are entirely different for a number of reasons. I don't buy this line that we are "9 months behind" England up here. House values in the densely populated areas in south of England have historically higher than the rest of the UK. That is where you'll see the worst of the drops.

 

Mortgage approvals are on the increase again, 95% LTV mortgages are gradually becomming available again.

 

We're through the worst IMHO, and with the rumoured freeze on stamp duty to come later this year freeing up more deposit money for potential buyers, I think the worst that will happen is things will carry on up here as they are now.

 

One things for sure, it's going to be interesting times.

[coppercrutch]

Fair enough, we can therefore conclude that the other of my reasons is the correct one, i.e. the EA in question doesn't train its staff properly. Personally if I was in that game right now I'd be crawling through glassy ****** to get a sale.

 

N.B. If you read the post again, I didn't actually get to look at the flat!

 

Pretty shocking !! Thing is these Estate Agents have had it too easy for too long. Stick a few pics up, open the doors for a few hours - wait for people to fight between themselves to offer ridiculous sums of money.

 

Now they are having to actually work for their money. It seems many of them don't actually have a ****ing clue. No great shock !!

[coppercrutch]

Small population per size perhaps, but 33 million people live there. Last time I was in Toronto is seemed like they all lived around the great lakes.

 

Great country.

 

Agreed, would live there for half the year easy !!

[J.T.F.Robertson]

I do think Canada looks like a decent bet. Small population, mainly self sufficient, mega resources.

 

Only problem is if other countries get desperate.

 

Property in Canada is generally more reasonable though. Vancouver being one exception. That place is going to crash big style.

 

Where abouts are you ?

 

We will fight them on the Tundra, we shall never surrender.

 

Calgary. Prices have gone through the roof here as well, over the past 4 - 5 years. We have a condo, doontoon on which, up until a year or so ago, we'd done pretty well. (we paid the downpayment before they'd even broken ground) Things are, how do they put it again "levelling off" (I'm familiar with the artistic license they take in their terminology) due to some of the same factors discussed here. Also, they've been building so many of the feckin things, there's now an over-supply and consequently, prices are dropping.

[blairdin]

We will fight them on the Tundra, we shall never surrender.

 

Calgary. Prices have gone through the roof here as well, over the past 4 - 5 years. We have a condo, doontoon on which, up until a year or so ago, we'd done pretty well. (we paid the downpayment before they'd even broken ground) Things are, how do they put it again "levelling off" (I'm familiar with the artistic license they take in their terminology) due to some of the same factors discussed here. Also, they've been building so many of the feckin things, there's now an over-supply and consequently, prices are dropping.

 

I viewed a 2 bedroom condo development in RocKy Ridge, the NW last. $199,000.

 

If I could get residency or a long term working visa quickly, I'd punt my place here now and be over there like a shot.

[coppercrutch]

I'm sorry CC, you make some interesting points but I think this is nonsense!

 

It might suit your agenda, but that would be an absolute disaster for those people who have have put everything they have into getting onto the property market in the last 2 years.

 

As it happens, the housing markets in England and Scotland are entirely different for a number of reasons. I don't buy this line that we are "9 months behind" England up here. House values in the densely populated areas in south of England have historically higher than the rest of the UK. That is where you'll see the worst of the drops.

 

Mortgage approvals are on the increase again, 95% LTV mortgages are gradually becomming available again.

 

We're through the worst IMHO, and with the rumoured freeze on stamp duty to come later this year freeing up more deposit money for potential buyers, I think the worst that will happen is things will carry on up here as they are now.

 

One things for sure, it's going to be interesting times.

 

I can't beleive I am going to have another 'Lower house prices are actually good' debate. THERE IS NO ARGUMENT !!!

 

So what ? To save all those who have bought in the last 2 years from negative equity - lets keep house prices at stupidly high prices for eternity ?

 

The only people who will really suffer from this are those who have bought in thelast 3-4 years. Everyone else will be fine. Everyone else who has been unable to buy recently will be better off.(With patience) Everyone who is looking to move up to a larger house will be better off(With patience)Estate agents will be worse off. Property developers will be worse off.

 

Seriously this is an argument I have had so often it is ridiculous.

 

Explain to me how high oil prices, high food prices, high insurance prices and high flight prices are good for the majority and you win.

 

The only people who think house prices won't fall are those that don't want it to fall. Everyone else uses their common sense and sees what is coming.

 

You are correct about places having higher prices having further to drop. I totally agree. However when people talk about this they always talk about 'Southern England'. The simple fact is many places in Edinburgh are more expensive than places in Southern England.

 

Logic and common sense are on my side. I am happy to go with their historical record of being spot on 99 times out of a hundred.