House Prices in Edinburgh

[Munch]

I'm back from ma holidays, Copper and I'm amazed at how much things have gotten worse in just over 2 weeks.

 

2 Major Edin based surveyors have paid off 80 staff between them, one off the major Edin Estate agents, are going on a 2.5 day week.

 

The stamp duty dithering by Brown and Darling has caused even more chaos with buyers putting purchases on hold pending some kind off decision.

 

Latest news on Grunton harbour, a 3 bed sold at auction for 152k, it was sold new 3.5 years ago for 335k.

 

With more bad news to come in November with the single survey, no drop in interest rates on the horizon, and a recession looming, i think your predictions off another 20 to 30 percent drop in prices by next spring is a strong possibility.

 

Repossessions are also on the up big time.

 

What do you make off all this Copper, The Crutchster always has an angle on things.

 

It looks too me that its going down the pan.

[hmfc_steve]

seen ups and downs in the housing / job market all my life ... nuthin new

[Munch]

seen ups and downs in the housing / job market all my life ... nuthin new

 

As bad as this ?

[siegementality]

Buy a tent.

[coppercrutch]

I'm back from ma holidays, Copper and I'm amazed at how much things have gotten worse in just over 2 weeks.

 

2 Major Edin based surveyors have paid off 80 staff between them, one off the major Edin Estate agents, are going on a 2.5 day week.

 

The stamp duty dithering by Brown and Darling has caused even more chaos with buyers putting purchases on hold pending some kind off decision.

 

Latest news on Grunton harbour, a 3 bed sold at auction for 152k, it was sold new 3.5 years ago for 335k.

 

With more bad news to come in November with the single survey, no drop in interest rates on the horizon, and a recession looming, i think your predictions off another 20 to 30 percent drop in prices by next spring is a strong possibility.

 

Repossessions are also on the up big time.

 

What do you make off all this Copper, The Crutchster always has an angle on things.

 

It looks too me that its going down the pan.

 

It looks messy that is for sure. I still reckon most people are holding off until this all 'blows over' though. I think most people think next spring it will all kick off again. Whilst that is a possibility I reckon the chances are slim to none.

 

Anyway my predictions were 30-50% real falls by 2012.

 

The speed of things is quite mental though - it could be over faster than that.

 

Interesting how our 'local papers' are keeping very quiet on all these job losses you mentioned above. Just shows how much they sook up to people 'in the business'. About time they grew some balls and told the public what was really going on. What chance of the EN doing that you reckon..

 

This whole 'Edinburgh is different' mantra is seriously embarrassing.

 

Those Granton figures are mental. But who would want to buy down there even at that price ? I just can't see the rest of it being finished can you ? And if it isn't you are left in a quickly built flat on the most exposed part of Edinburgh in the middle of a half finished brownfield site.

 

100k for a 3 bed down there would be a reasonable price.

 

Overall all though average prices have still not dropped according to the figures coming through. High end properties where money is no problem most likely skewing the entire thing. Even the most ardent 'Edinburgh is different' supporter would not say real average prices are higher today than last year.

 

For most places in Edinburgh today you would have to drop your expectations from last summer by about 10-15% to have any hope of a sale.

 

So in reality house prices in Edinburgh have already fallen by at least 15% in real terms. All this before people even know as well....

[coppercrutch]

Buy a tent.

 

I stayed in a tent for 6 months in NZ. Quality actually. I don't think the weather here is suited though..

[siegementality]

I stayed in a tent for 6 months in NZ. Quality actually. I don't think the weather here is suited though..

 

A caravan then.

[Munch]

It looks messy that is for sure. I still reckon most people are holding off until this all 'blows over' though. I think most people think next spring it will all kick off again. Whilst that is a possibility I reckon the chances are slim to none.

 

Anyway my predictions were 30-50% real falls by 2012.

 

The speed of things is quite mental though - it could be over faster than that.

 

Interesting how our 'local papers' are keeping very quiet on all these job losses you mentioned above. Just shows how much they sook up to people 'in the business'. About time they grew some balls and told the public what was really going on. What chance of the EN doing that you reckon..

 

This whole 'Edinburgh is different' mantra is seriously embarrassing.

 

Those Granton figures are mental. But who would want to buy down there even at that price ? I just can't see the rest of it being finished can you ? And if it isn't you are left in a quickly built flat on the most exposed part of Edinburgh in the middle of a half finished brownfield site.

 

100k for a 3 bed down there would be a reasonable price.

 

Overall all though average prices have still not dropped according to the figures coming through. High end properties where money is no problem most likely skewing the entire thing. Even the most ardent 'Edinburgh is different' supporter would not say real average prices are higher today than last year.

 

For most places in Edinburgh today you would have to drop your expectations from last summer by about 10-15% to have any hope of a sale.

 

So in reality house prices in Edinburgh have already fallen by at least 15% in real terms. All this before people even know as well....

 

You were keeping an eye on the Gorgie area any updates? i know the one you sent me at 100k was sold by the Tuesday, having went on the Friday before you sent it too me.

 

That is the same price as you would have bought for 2 years ago in that area, that seems too be the level at the moment they are snapped up for.

 

I have a few friends who have lost there jobs ,and a few who are crapping it as things deteriorate.

 

You are correct though the top end stuff million pound plus stuff is still going like a fair, it seems bullet proof, however this could distort average prices.

 

I have been watching the Grunton harbour area and it is in meltdown, a broker i know got a call from a lady down south asking her what she could get for a 2 bed down there, she bought 3 years ago for 275k, when she was advised 150k, the lady said she was just going too hand the keys back too the bank, she had an 85% mortgage on it , so she was in for 233k on the mortgage and they had put in a 42k deposit to buy it, take in stamp duty, and fees , and she had lost 50k cash.

 

And too make it worse she was renting it for only 850 per month, so she was subsidizing the mortgage by ?700 per month.

 

I Predict that we have only had the first wave, there is a second wave still too hit, repossessions that are dumped at auction will drive prices down, a 3 bed at Grunton could go as low as 90K , i think thats as low as it can go however your time frame is way out IMO.

 

The speed off things will surprise everyone i think come next spring you will see the bottom of the barrel.

 

by that point you will be at around 90K for a 3 bed, and 70K for a 2 bed at Grunton Harbour.

 

I Would predict that the builders down there will be burst, and all building suspended, so a half built project will be left too crumble for a few years till things pick up.

[Munch]

A caravan then.

 

I heard on the radio about a family who are living in a vauxhall zafira, after there gaff got repossessed.

[ArmiyaRomanova]

Buy a tent.

 

At least you know it's guaranteed to go down in value.

[ArmiyaRomanova]

Anyone know what's happening with the infirmary 'Quartermile' development?

 

Saw a few prices there last year and just laughed.

[The Old Tolbooth]

A caravan then.

 

But he's not a hobo.

[hmfc_steve]

As bad as this ?

 

currently ... from my perspective, it's not anywhere near bad as it has been in the past.

[Meadows]

I also looked at the quartermile, it was about a year ago (maybe less) they wanted ?480000 for a three bed flat with NO parking!! If i wanted a parking space it was an extra ?30000.

Decided too politely decline;)

[ArmiyaRomanova]

I also looked at the quartermile, it was about a year ago (maybe less) they wanted ?480000 for a three bed flat with NO parking!! If i wanted a parking space it was an extra ?30000.

Decided too politely decline;)

 

I'd say a little more than half that'd be realistic.

 

But 30k for a parking spot is reasonable.

[Munch]

Anyone know what's happening with the infirmary 'Quarter mile' development?

 

Saw a few prices there last year and just laughed.

 

You laughed, i could not believe the prices there 265k for a 1 bed, and an extra 50k for a car parking space.

 

i have not heard any info on sales there though.

[Meadows]

I'd say a little more than half that'd be realistic.

 

But 30k for a parking spot is reasonable.

 

Aye a right bargain!!

[upthehill]

it's well worthwhile savng you pennies and holding off buying as it's gonna get a whole lot worse. Then snap up all the bargains, so long as you have a job!!!

[davemclaren]

it's well worthwhile savng you pennies and holding off buying as it's gonna get a whole lot worse. Then snap up all the bargains, so long as you have a job!!!

 

So I shouldn't stick my redundancy cheque into property?

[Boaby Ewing]

Nah, but you can bet on the average house price falling with numerous spread betting firms and hedge against the value of your property falling.

 

What could possibly go wrong

[coppercrutch]

These prices for quartermile etc.. are ludicrous. There is a lot of money in Edinburgh no doubt. However it is not London here. You don't have scores of 25 year olds making six figure sums.

 

Take out the 'property investor' from the Edinburgh Property market and it has a long long way to fall.

 

If in doubt ask a few people if they could afford to buy their own house now.

 

Something has to give...

[Munch]

These prices for quartermile etc.. are ludicrous. There is a lot of money in Edinburgh no doubt. However it is not London here. You don't have scores of 25 year olds making six figure sums.

 

Take out the 'property investor' from the Edinburgh Property market and it has a long long way to fall.

 

If in doubt ask a few people if they could afford to buy their own house now.

 

Something has to give...

 

What has given soo far mate is hundreds off job losses, in surveyors,estate agents,and financial services.

 

The frightening thing is, the market is slowing rapidly and as the year goes on and going into early next year hundreds more jobs will go, not too mention some closing down.

 

Latest news, A leading East lothian based estate agent just cut its staff by a third, another leading Edinburgh based Solicitors on a 4 day week.

 

The market is now 80 percent down on the same period last year in terms off sales, and now that Brown and Darling have chucked there spanner in the works with the mutterings about stamp duty, i can confirm the market has completely stalled.

 

As sellers panick prices are being slashed too no avail, wait till the recession bites deeper there will be mass repos, sold at auction for next too nothing, i predict prices down by 50% by next April.

 

On my calculations you will be buying a 1 bed flat in Gorgie for 50k and a 3 bed in Grunton Harbour ( currently you can buy for 165K) for 85k.

 

Do you think I'm under estimating things Copper? i know you tend too look on the dark side when its house prices we are talking about.?

[coppercrutch]

What has given soo far mate is hundreds off job losses, in surveyors,estate agents,and financial services.

 

The frightening thing is, the market is slowing rapidly and as the year goes on and going into early next year hundreds more jobs will go, not too mention some closing down.

 

Latest news, A leading East lothian based estate agent just cut its staff by a third, another leading Edinburgh based Solicitors on a 4 day week.

 

The market is now 80 percent down on the same period last year in terms off sales, and now that Brown and Darling have chucked there spanner in the works with the mutterings about stamp duty, i can confirm the market has completely stalled.

 

As sellers panick prices are being slashed too no avail, wait till the recession bites deeper there will be mass repos, sold at auction for next too nothing, i predict prices down by 50% by next April.

 

On my calculations you will be buying a 1 bed flat in Gorgie for 50k and a 3 bed in Grunton Harbour ( currently you can buy for 165K) for 85k.

 

Do you think I'm under estimating things Copper? i know you tend too look on the dark side when its house prices we are talking about.?

 

Keep up with the info. Good stuff. Never hear this in the press though.

 

Still far too many 'property supplements' in the papers for them to be honest when their buddies in the 'industry' are desperately persuading them not to.

 

As for 50% off by next year no danger IMO. Far too many people that don't have to sell for it to happen that quick. Another 2 years minimum.

 

But who knows you may be right. I would be shocked though.

[Munch]

Keep up with the info. Good stuff. Never hear this in the press though.

 

Still far too many 'property supplements' in the papers for them to be honest when their buddies in the 'industry' are desperately persuading them not to.

 

As for 50% off by next year no danger IMO. Far too many people that don't have to sell for it to happen that quick. Another 2 years minimum.

 

But who knows you may be right. I would be shocked though.

 

These supplements are self preservation talking up and putting a rosy spin on things.

 

My information is factual, i previously mentioned that one off the big six Solicitors and estate agents cut there staff by a 3rd last month, i can confirm letters have went out too confirm they will be on a 2 and a half day week from September, clever move halves the wage bill, but retains staff.

 

More news, one off the largest in Scotland has shed 30 staff a 3rd off there previously bullet proof employees.

 

This all points too a rapid reduction in sales, no sales, no commissions, so out the door.

 

You can read your magazines that put good spin on things all you like but as i said before " SELF PRESERVATION ".

 

I am keeping an eye on the Remax lot, not much info from them apart from they say they are doing well.

 

Lets keep an eye on this months magazine and look at all the smiley faces that are based at each of there Edin base offices.

 

Wind forward to December if 50% have not gone id be amazed, i found last Julys Remax listings magazine and was amazed too see that there are hardly any off them left the drop out rate is astounding, and that was pre crunch.

 

No copper you are far too conservative with your predictions, the next 6 months will be Armageddon in the property market.

[Boris]

Most of the houses referred to in this thread relate to new builds.

 

Of course their prices will drop as they were inflated in the first instance.

 

The anecdote re a one bed in Gorgie selling quickly and for more or less the same price shows that there are two seperate markets here.

 

Also iro repossessions...well, boo hoo. Why did they over stretch themselves in the first place?

 

Prices will fall, but not to crazy levels i.e. 6 years ago we sold a one bedroom flat for ?70k. Can't see them being that price again.

[Sherlock]

...[A] leading Edinburgh based Solicitors on a 4 day week...

 

... My information is factual, i previously mentioned that one off the big six Solicitors ... cut there staff by a 3rd last month, i can confirm letters have went out too confirm they will be on a 2 and a half day week from September...

 

... one off the largest in Scotland has shed 30 staff a 3rd off there previously bullet proof employees...

 

Care to name the firms of Solicitors that you're referring to?

[coppercrutch]

These supplements are self preservation talking up and putting a rosy spin on things.

 

My information is factual, i previously mentioned that one off the big six Solicitors and estate agents cut there staff by a 3rd last month, i can confirm letters have went out too confirm they will be on a 2 and a half day week from September, clever move halves the wage bill, but retains staff.

 

More news, one off the largest in Scotland has shed 30 staff a 3rd off there previously bullet proof employees.

 

This all points too a rapid reduction in sales, no sales, no commissions, so out the door.

 

You can read your magazines that put good spin on things all you like but as i said before " SELF PRESERVATION ".

 

I am keeping an eye on the Remax lot, not much info from them apart from they say they are doing well.

 

Lets keep an eye on this months magazine and look at all the smiley faces that are based at each of there Edin base offices.

 

Wind forward to December if 50% have not gone id be amazed, i found last Julys Remax listings magazine and was amazed too see that there are hardly any off them left the drop out rate is astounding, and that was pre crunch.

 

No copper you are far too conservative with your predictions, the next 6 months will be Armageddon in the property market.

 

Fisrt time someone has told me that....

 

Most of the houses referred to in this thread relate to new builds.

 

Of course their prices will drop as they were inflated in the first instance.

 

The anecdote re a one bed in Gorgie selling quickly and for more or less the same price shows that there are two seperate markets here.

 

Also iro repossessions...well, boo hoo. Why did they over stretch themselves in the first place?

 

Prices will fall, but not to crazy levels i.e. 6 years ago we sold a one bedroom flat for ?70k. Can't see them being that price again.

 

Same thing happening in England. It is the old 'Prices will fall but not in my area' thinking.

 

The first to be hit will be the most obviously overpriced. Granton being the best example. However the whole housing market is a pyramid system. It needs those at the bottom to pile in, otherwise everwhere gets hit. There are now stories about grand country piles in England havign to reduce their asking prices by six figures to get a sale. All property will fall in price. The most overpriced will fall most. The least overpriced will fall least. Pretty simple logic I reckon.

 

As for one bed flats. Most people buyign these will be on about 20-25k. So considering they will now need probably a 10% mortgage a price of 70k is reasonable.

 

7k deposit.

3k (ish) fees etc ?

Leaves a mortgage of 60k.

 

So this 25 year old has to come up with 10k cash. Then they have to pay ?4-450 ish per month for their mortgage. That seems reasonable. Certainly not cheap. Certainly not out of reach for those able to look after their money.

 

Why should a one bed flat in Edinburgh cost any more than this ? The demand/supply argument has been totally blown out of the water so what is left...

 

Care to name the firms of Solicitors that you're referring to?

 

I would like to know too.

Of course if our local newspaper was doing its job we would all know this.

 

After years of 'boom' anyone in property who feels they deserve preferential treatrment is, IMO, quite simply deluded.

[Munch]

Fisrt time someone has told me that....

 

 

 

Same thing happening in England. It is the old 'Prices will fall but not in my area' thinking.

 

The first to be hit will be the most obviously overpriced. Granton being the best example. However the whole housing market is a pyramid system. It needs those at the bottom to pile in, otherwise everwhere gets hit. There are now stories about grand country piles in England havign to reduce their asking prices by six figures to get a sale. All property will fall in price. The most overpriced will fall most. The least overpriced will fall least. Pretty simple logic I reckon.

 

As for one bed flats. Most people buyign these will be on about 20-25k. So considering they will now need probably a 10% mortgage a price of 70k is reasonable.

 

7k deposit.

3k (ish) fees etc ?

Leaves a mortgage of 60k.

 

So this 25 year old has to come up with 10k cash. Then they have to pay ?4-450 ish per month for their mortgage. That seems reasonable. Certainly not cheap. Certainly not out of reach for those able to look after their money.

 

Why should a one bed flat in Edinburgh cost any more than this ? The demand/supply argument has been totally blown out of the water so what is left...

 

 

 

I would like to know too.

Of course if our local newspaper was doing its job we would all know this.

 

After years of 'boom' anyone in property who feels they deserve preferential treatrment is, IMO, quite simply deluded.

 

I do not want too disclose names of companies, however the information is fact.

[Munch]

Care to name the firms of Solicitors that you're referring to?

 

If you are in this line off business you should know who i am talking about, one off them im reffering too who shed 30 plus initials of company is BM.

[Sherlock]

I do not want too disclose names of companies, however the information is fact.

 

Why the secrecy?

 

What kind of confidentiality is being broken by you stating which firms of solicitors you were referring to?

[Sherlock]

If you are in this line off business you should know who i am talking about, one off them im reffering too who shed 30 plus initials of company is BM.

 

Balfour & Manson or Bonar Mackenzie?

 

Who were the other firms you were talking about?

[flecktimus]

These supplements are self preservation talking up and putting a rosy spin on things.

 

My information is factual, i previously mentioned that one off the big six Solicitors and estate agents cut there staff by a 3rd last month, i can confirm letters have went out too confirm they will be on a 2 and a half day week from September, clever move halves the wage bill, but retains staff.

 

More news, one off the largest in Scotland has shed 30 staff a 3rd off there previously bullet proof employees.

 

This all points too a rapid reduction in sales, no sales, no commissions, so out the door.

 

You can read your magazines that put good spin on things all you like but as i said before " SELF PRESERVATION ".

 

I am keeping an eye on the Remax lot, not much info from them apart from they say they are doing well.

 

Lets keep an eye on this months magazine and look at all the smiley faces that are based at each of there Edin base offices.

 

Wind forward to December if 50% have not gone id be amazed, i found last Julys Remax listings magazine and was amazed too see that there are hardly any off them left the drop out rate is astounding, and that was pre crunch.

 

No copper you are far too conservative with your predictions, the next 6 months will be Armageddon in the property market.

 

I never thought i would see the day when Coppercrutch is being accused of being conservative with his property price predictions.

 

Here is me thinking that the worst is over with all the little snippets of good news coming through (except for that prat at No 10), but now i am informed the Armageddon has only just began.

 

Anyway all this 50% is nonsense, 10 – 15% overall yes, but not 50%.

[Therapist]

Driving home from work at 4, the first story on the news was that house prices in Edinburgh were up 7% over the last 12 months. CC will be spewing.

[Munch]

I never thought i would see the day when Coppercrutch is being accused of being conservative with his property price predictions.

 

Here is me thinking that the worst is over with all the little snippets of good news coming through (except for that prat at No 10), but now i am informed the Armageddon has only just began.

 

Anyway all this 50% is nonsense, 10 ? 15% overall yes, but not 50%.

 

Copper is always conservative, he is a Tory, there are various articles in the press today confirming the market is slowly picking up again.

[flecktimus]

Driving home from work at 4, the first story on the news was that house prices in Edinburgh were up 7% over the last 12 months. CC will be spewing.

 

This is the important part.

[flecktimus]

Copper is always conservative, he is a Tory, there are various articles in the press today confirming the market is slowly picking up again.

 

One of the most compelling arguments i have seen, is that the money men can see the light at the the end of the tunnel and have reinvested into Baratts

 

If i was CC i would get out there and buy his property in the next year or he is going to miss out again.

[Walter Kidd]

Driving home from work at 4, the first story on the news was that house prices in Edinburgh were up 7% over the last 12 months. CC will be spewing.

 

Dear Mr Therapist

 

Don't post facts without sources. Everyone on this site knows we will all be either:

 

A: Living in tents in 3 months time

 

B: Back living with our mother and fathers.

 

[rossi_1983]

I know of one Remax person, working just outside Edinburgh, who has already left. They are really being hit hard, with people using reputable firms to try to maximise the possibility of getting a sale.

[Therapist]

Dear Mr Therapist

 

Don't post facts without sources. Everyone on this site knows we will all be either:

 

A: Living in tents in 3 months time

 

B: Back living with our mother and fathers.

 

Apologies. I should have known better.

[coppercrutch]

Jeez. Why even bother replying to the posts above. Edinburgh prices up 7% over the year !! Yeah sure. They are down at least 10%. You see I live in the real World, venture there some day...

 

Market picking up again !!! Where has this come from !!??

 

-Builders not quite so close to bankruptcy as they were last week.

-Inlfation hitting record recent highs.

-Job losses in the UK just starting to kick in.

-Rates on fixed mortgages (If you have a 25% deposit) falling slightly. Rates on mortgages with a 5% deposit actually increasing even more.

-"Busy" time of the year for house sales just about to end.

-Estate agenst and solicitors laying off staff left right and centre.

 

Yep guys. You have persudaed me right enough. That is it - I am off to the mortgage brokers tomorrow to sort myself out with an overpriced shoebox.

 

Amazing how people hear what they want to hear.

 

Seems we are back to the denial stage !! That is good for me because the longer this takes to 'correct' the lower prices will fall.

 

Whilst my forays into spreadbetting and shares have been dodgy to say the least - my predictions about house prices are spot on. I am 99% certain of that. And that is the big one I am banking on, the rest is just for fun.

[Therapist]

What's your mum cooking for your tea tonight CC?

[coppercrutch]

I know of one Remax person, working just outside Edinburgh, who has already left. They are really being hit hard, with people using reputable firms to try to maximise the possibility of getting a sale.

 

What are you talking about !! House prices in Edinburgh are rising don't you know !!

 

"Possibilities of getting a sale".

 

What planet do you live on. This is Edinburgh buddy. Put your house up for a silly amount and wait for someone to throw cash through your front door. That is how it works around here !! There aren't piles of houses sitting with zero interest whatsoever month after month in this city...Everywhere but Edinburgh. We are different here you see...

 

Jeez, wake up eh.....

[coppercrutch]

What's your mum cooking for your tea tonight CC?

 

Will find out when I get home. Quality.

[Munch]

One of the most compelling arguments i have seen, is that the money men can see the light at the the end of the tunnel and have reinvested into Baratts

 

If i was CC i would get out there and buy his property in the next year or he is going to miss out again.

 

Yes a large capital investment into Barrats , by a company that specialize in buying shares in under valued companies, with a bright future, very interesting all the builders shares rose because off this investment.

 

Also press articles stating a house price boom in 2 years due too a short supply, and large demand issue.

 

Libor rate is also down, which has lowered interest rates, i fear the tide is turning and i got it wrong, its possible this is as low as it goes and on the back off your 7% price rise in the last year for Edinburgh house prices its business as normal.

[Munch]

Will find out when I get home. Quality.

 

Pea and ham soup for starters, CC s mum gives him a choice for main course.

 

Choice A. Pizza and Chips.

 

Choice B. Chicken Curry and Rice.

 

Washed doon with a large drink off milk.

 

 

And for pudding.

 

Ice cream and jelly.

 

 

Then CC Retires too read the paper, slippers nice and warm on the stove, smoking jacket on, and don't forget the clay pipe.

 

[flecktimus]

Pea and ham soup for starters, CC s mum gives him a choice for main course.

 

Choice A. Pizza and Chips.

 

Choice B. Chicken Curry and Rice.

 

Washed doon with a large drink off milk.

 

 

And for pudding.

 

Ice cream and jelly.

 

 

Then CC Retires too read the paper, slippers nice and warm on the stove, smoking jacket on, and don't forget the clay pipe.

 

 

That should read, Google all negative storys regarding property;)

[Munch]

That should read, Google all negative story's regarding property;)

 

I suspect copper will have a PC in his bedroom, he will no doubt surf the net, after he has read the paper.

 

He could finish the evening watching the portable telly beside his bed, before his Mum tucks him in for the evening.

[Sherlock]

Driving home from work at 4, the first story on the news was that house prices in Edinburgh were up 7% over the last 12 months. CC will be spewing.

 

Now, now... i think 'CC' has earned the right to be known by his preferred nickname of 'The Economist'.

[coppercrutch]

So anyone care to cast any light on this prices up 7% over the past year story ?

 

The only 2 things that were released today that I know of were the RICS report and the DCLG report.

 

As for the second that is so far behind the times it makes the Hobos look modern....

 

They are still saying house prices in England are rising FFS !!!

 

It is obvious there are at least 2 posters on this thread who work in the property industry. How about with your knowledge you tell us what you think of Edinburgh prices rising by 7% over the last year. Perhaps over the last year up until last Autumn I would agree. After that it has been dead. Those that have sold have generally had to lower their expectations. I think we can all agree on that.

 

As for the RICS report that is quite interesting. If anyone would like a bit of real analysis see below. If however you want to know what I had for my tea it was Chilli. You don't need to read on any further. You won't understand.....

 

 

RICS report from Jan:

 

http://www.rics.org/NR/rdonlyres/06197498-AAD8-4789-B8BB-D7164C32971E/0/RICSHousingMarketSurveyJan2008.pdf

 

RICS report from Jul:

 

http://www.rics.org/NR/rdonlyres/2EC66219-821F-470A-800A-AB8437F0128E/0/RICSHousingMarketSurveyJuly2008.pdf

 

I have been having a look at when sentiment has changed across the country - That is when the number of surveyors reporting a fall in prices overtook those reporting a rise.

 

If you look at England and Wales(Jan Report) it happened across the board between June and October 2007. Lets take the middle point of August for simplicity.

 

In Scotland (Apart from a blip in Dec) it seems to have happened pretty conclusively in May 2008.

 

So by this survey Scotland seems to be lagging behind England by about

 

Halifax & Nationwide house price surveys went negative for the Uk as a whole in April and May 2008. If this follows the same pattern as the RICS sentiment then we should see Scotland go YOY negative in About Jan or Feb next year.

 

Actually - I have just had a look and HBOS are already reporting falls across Scotland as a whole !! Confusing figures out there.

 

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/QuarterlyRegionalComments.asp

 

Strange - never saw this splattered across the Scotsman at the time....

 

Oh and Jambosrbarry I think you should think a little more about your predictions. You have gone from predicting the biggest and fastest housing crash in history to 'all back to normal' in the space of half a day..... This sort of thing needs a little more thought than that.

[davemclaren]

So anyone care to cast any light on this prices up 7% over the past year story ?

 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7556887.stm