Lucy Letby Trial

[redjambo]

9 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

Still to be confirmed

 

 

 

Good if true.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, Horatio Caine said:

I'm sure I heard somewhere that all of the above will form part of the inquiry.

I suppose it depends on the definition of “the families” in Mikey’s subsequent post

 

there was a family who’s baby died that have been in the papers suspecting that letby may have murdered their baby too so hopefully it will include families like that

 

such a life-changing traumatic event it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of families wanted their cause of death etc double-checked / revisited especially as a number of letbys victims were originally concluded as natural causes

 

 

[Mikey1874]

11 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

I suppose it depends on the definition of “the families” in Mikey’s subsequent post

 

there was a family who’s baby died that have been in the papers suspecting that letby may have murdered their baby too so hopefully it will include families like that

 

such a life-changing traumatic event it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of families wanted their cause of death etc double-checked / revisited especially as a number of letbys victims were originally concluded as natural causes

 

 

 

The decision on further charges is still to be made. As well as additional offences, jury failed to decide on 6 charges. I think there will be more charges because of the need to show the families wishes are being respected. There is a view there is no point and its such a big expense. I think the Inquiry might need to wait till that is resolved. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Mikey1874

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

24 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

The decision on further charges is still to be made. As well as additional offences, jury failed to decide on 6 charges. I think there will be more charges because of the need to show the families wishes are being respected. There is a view there is no point and its such a big expense. I think the Inquiry might need to wait till that is resolved. 

😃👍

 

I hope any family who requests a review gets one whether letby was involved or not

 

Confirmation that the child died despite best efforts and not at the hands of letby or by other medical negligence could be important to some families albeit would be re-opening very difficult mental wounds

 

im sure it’s not at the forefront of anyone’s mind in such tragic circumstances but couldnt there be a possibility of compensation (the word totally inadequate in this case)

 

there have been cases concluded as natural causes now concluded as murder - as well as potential additional  murders what if cases that letby wasn’t involved in but were as a result of a mistake / inadequate process either as yet not known or covered up by some (similar to the murders) the families hopefully will receive the answers and due ‘compensation’ where appropriate 

I agree adding a few more life sentences into letby is pointless 

 

 

[Mikey1874]

Maybe help the decision on further charges.

 

 

[AlphonseCapone]

Do you need a reason to appeal? You surely can't just do it because you don't like the result. Suppose could always claim bias due to media coverage or something though in this case the media were actually very reserved.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, AlphonseCapone said:

Do you need a reason to appeal? You surely can't just do it because you don't like the result. Suppose could always claim bias due to media coverage or something though in this case the media were actually very reserved.

yes you need a reason to appeal

 

you need a good reason for it to be in any way successful

 

as you say just not liking the result is neither a reason nor a good reason 

[That thing you do]

Based on this:

 

https://www.quora.com/How-safe-is-the-conviction-of-Lucy-Letby-with-no-confession-no-motive-and-only-circumstantial-evidence

 

Im not surprised there is a formal appeal.

 

Im not suggesting I personally believe this article but I can see why, if true, its concerning.

 

Some quite startling bungling of the defence it seems and a commercial expert witness. Odd

[Mikey1874]

She is applying for permission to appeal.

 

Also there is a hearing later this month to decide if she is to be recharged on 6 attempted murders jury couldn't decide on.

[Unknown user]

3 hours ago, That thing you do said:

Based on this:

 

https://www.quora.com/How-safe-is-the-conviction-of-Lucy-Letby-with-no-confession-no-motive-and-only-circumstantial-evidence

 

Im not surprised there is a formal appeal.

 

Im not suggesting I personally believe this article but I can see why, if true, its concerning.

 

Some quite startling bungling of the defence it seems and a commercial expert witness. Odd

 

Circumstantial evidence is still evidence, and there's a LOT more here than, say, Luke Mitchell got convicted on.

 

She was on shift every time, babies died after being left alone with her. One baby was completely healthy but put in the ward to give the mum a break, and ended up dead, with only her on shift. As soon as she was moved into a back office role, it stopped.

 

There's already YouTube videos about the case, once you get into it there's no doubt, the lassie's a serial baby killer.

[Mikey1874]

54 minutes ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

Circumstantial evidence is still evidence, and there's a LOT more here than, say, Luke Mitchell got convicted on.

 

She was on shift every time, babies died after being left alone with her. One baby was completely healthy but put in the ward to give the mum a break, and ended up dead, with only her on shift. As soon as she was moved into a back office role, it stopped.

 

There's already YouTube videos about the case, once you get into it there's no doubt, the lassie's a serial baby killer.

 

And crucially behind it all, even the sickest of babies very rarely die. 

[Unknown user]

13 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

And crucially behind it all, even the sickest of babies very rarely die. 

 

Yeah, the rate of infant mortality is a known, within parameters of course.

 

You can prove that whenever £50 went missing it was this one person on duty, that £50 doesn't go missing at that rate anywhere in the country. You can prove that no one else had access to the till when the money went missing and that alarmed colleagues who really care about £50s had pleaded with management to remove the person. After which, it stopped.

 

The case has to be proven beyond all reasonable doubt, and sometimes that just means that the alternative explanations are too mental to be seriously considered. Like, aliens froze time, took the £50, and ****ed off. Or I fell and landed with my dick in her, honest babe.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

2 hours ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

Circumstantial evidence is still evidence, and there's a LOT more here than, say, Luke Mitchell got convicted on.

 

She was on shift every time, babies died after being left alone with her. One baby was completely healthy but put in the ward to give the mum a break, and ended up dead, with only her on shift. As soon as she was moved into a back office role, it stopped.

 

There's already YouTube videos about the case, once you get into it there's no doubt, the lassie's a serial baby killer.

“once you get into it ….”

 

I assume you are into it enough to be aware that the risk level of the unit was temporarily raised from level 1 to level 2 and then back to level 1 which coincided with the time the excess deaths happened and the reduction also coincided with letby leaving the ward ie less risky babies and the serial killer removed at the same time 

 

there were also a number of excess deaths and incidents letby wasn’t (obviously) involved in some you’ll have an explanation for those 

 

you’ll also be aware how many shifts letby worked compared to her colleagues and the relative risk profiles of the babies they were allocated and taken that into account 

 

or maybe not 🙀

 

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

“once you get into it ….”

 

I assume you are into it enough to be aware that the risk level of the unit was temporarily raised from level 1 to level 2 and then back to level 1 which coincided with the time the excess deaths happened and the reduction also coincided with letby leaving the ward ie less risky babies and the serial killer removed at the same time 

 

there were also a number of excess deaths and incidents letby wasn’t (obviously) involved in some you’ll have an explanation for those 

 

you’ll also be aware how many shifts letby worked compared to her colleagues and the relative risk profiles of the babies they were allocated and taken that into account 

 

or maybe not 🙀

 

 

Are you saying you don't think she is a serial killer?

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

11 minutes ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

Are you saying you don't think she is a serial killer?

I don’t think it’s a “no doubt” case “once you get into it” in fact there have been very similar (always on shift type cases) which have been overturned on appeal

 

have you answers to any of the questions I asked - it doesn’t prove anything either way just asking if you’re aware of them and if you’ve built them into your “no doubt” conclusion

 

 

 

 

[Unknown user]

6 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

I don’t think it’s a “no doubt” case “once you get into it” in fact there have been very similar (always on shift type cases) which have been overturned on appeal

 

have you answers to any of the questions I asked - it doesn’t prove anything either way just asking if you’re aware of them and if you’ve built them into your “no doubt” conclusion

 

 

I've built the "beyond reasonable doubt" conclusion from the jury into my conclusion, they saw everything, even that there was enough reasonable doubt about some instances.

 

If you don't think she's a serial killer that's fine, it's an opinion forum, but I'm interested to look at the sources that got you there.

[That thing you do]

22 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

I don’t think it’s a “no doubt” case “once you get into it” in fact there have been very similar (always on shift type cases) which have been overturned on appeal

 

have you answers to any of the questions I asked - it doesn’t prove anything either way just asking if you’re aware of them and if you’ve built them into your “no doubt” conclusion

 

 

 

 

The bit I found quite alarming reading Quora was the sewage pipes overhead occasionally leaked. I dont know what that could do to a vulnerable baby but it cant be good.

 

Theres also a very eminent profesor of statistics that explains how the tick sheet showing letby present each time shouldve been challenged.

 

https://www.normanfenton.com/post/the-lucy-letby-trial-and-verdict-not-everybody-is-convinced-that-justice-was-done

 

I honestly dont know enough about neo natal care to judge but it does seem her defence let her down in its strategy and I can see why, based on these things an appeal has been lodged.

 

Going to be very interesting as she has professors and medical professionals who think shes had a miscarriage of justice.

Edited September 16, 2023 by That thing you do

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

5 minutes ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

I've built the "beyond reasonable doubt" conclusion from the jury into my conclusion, they saw everything, even that there was enough reasonable doubt about some instances.

 

If you don't think she's a serial killer that's fine, it's an opinion forum, but I'm interested to look at the sources that got you there.

sounds like you weren’t aware of those points - like you say it’s all about opinions which are  based on  x y and zero at times 

 

in what was a very complex statistical and medical case are you aware that other letby herself the only witness the defence called was a plumber no statistical expert no medical expert (despite being offered)  - not suggesting anything underhand but it did sound almost ridiculous to me (not that the plumber didn’t have a part to play)

 

IF she gets an appeal which might take a number of attempts there will be more than the plumber in her corner 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

4 minutes ago, That thing you do said:

The bit I found quite alarming reading Quora was the sewage pipes overhead occasionally leaked. I dont know what that could do to a vulnerable baby but it cant be good.

 

Theres also a very eminent profesor of statistics that explains how the tick sheet showing letby present each time shouldve been challenged.

 

https://www.normanfenton.com/post/the-lucy-letby-trial-and-verdict-not-everybody-is-convinced-that-justice-was-done

 

I honestly dont know enough about neo natal care to judge but it does seem her defence let her down in its strategy and I can see why, based on these things an appeal has been lodged.

 

Going to be very interesting as she has professors and medical professionals who think shes had a miscarriage of justice.

yeah I’m in agreement with some of the stuff you posted 

 

other than people understandably going “she’s a serial killer no doubt” or “she’s definitely innocent it’s a stitch-up” the numbers guys (while they may believe she’s innocent) are looking for a what they believe is a fairer trial rather than proving her innocence

 

the medical findings can sometimes be underpinned by numbers so what looks like purely medical evidence isn’t always and the underlying numbers can play a part in its reliability

 

i think they’re more upset about their precious numbers being used badly rather than whether she’s innocent or not - slightly joking obviously 

 

like someone lending you their special car and you immediately crunching the gear box or something 

[Unknown user]

8 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

sounds like you weren’t aware of those points - like you say it’s all about opinions which are  based on  x y and zero at times 

 

in what was a very complex statistical and medical case are you aware that other letby herself the only witness the defence called was a plumber no statistical expert no medical expert (despite being offered)  - not suggesting anything underhand but it did sound almost ridiculous to me (not that the plumber didn’t have a part to play)

 

IF she gets an appeal which might take a number of attempts there will be more than the plumber in her corner 

 

I'm happy to read up on it, what would you recommend?

 

I'm not sure what relevance the plumber has, the defence can call who they like, or not.

[Unknown user]

I should probably add that there are a number of deaths that weren't charged. But that's because they didn't feel they could build a strong enough case rather than not thinking it was her. 

 

There's also a spate of deaths being investigated where she'd previously worked IIRC

[Mikey1874]

10 months of evidence was presented in court. Jury took 7 weeks to decide. Need to take a closer look at all of that before saying it was defective or just circumstantial. 

[Unknown user]

I've had stuff going on recently so although I've watched a couple of things on the subject I haven't taken in as much as normal. But I just remembered how apparent overdoses stopped right after she did a course which described how embolisms can kill if air is accidentally injected.

[Unknown user]

4 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

10 months of evidence was presented in court. Jury took 7 weeks to decide. Need to take a closer look at all of that before saying it was defective or just circumstantial. 

 

This.

[That thing you do]

29 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

yeah I’m in agreement with some of the stuff you posted 

 

other than people understandably going “she’s a serial killer no doubt” or “she’s definitely innocent it’s a stitch-up” the numbers guys (while they may believe she’s innocent) are looking for a what they believe is a fairer trial rather than proving her innocence

 

the medical findings can sometimes be underpinned by numbers so what looks like purely medical evidence isn’t always and the underlying numbers can play a part in its reliability

 

i think they’re more upset about their precious numbers being used badly rather than whether she’s innocent or not - slightly joking obviously 

 

like someone lending you their special car and you immediately crunching the gear box or something 

Indeed, more calls saying a retrial needed than shes innocent.

 

A retrial is probably the best outcome given all new (and existing) evidence can be assessed together.

 

 

[Bindy Badgy]

48 minutes ago, That thing you do said:

The bit I found quite alarming reading Quora was the sewage pipes overhead occasionally leaked. I dont know what that could do to a vulnerable baby but it cant be good.

 

Theres also a very eminent profesor of statistics that explains how the tick sheet showing letby present each time shouldve been challenged.

 

https://www.normanfenton.com/post/the-lucy-letby-trial-and-verdict-not-everybody-is-convinced-that-justice-was-done

 

I honestly dont know enough about neo natal care to judge but it does seem her defence let her down in its strategy and I can see why, based on these things an appeal has been lodged.

 

Going to be very interesting as she has professors and medical professionals who think shes had a miscarriage of justice.

 

I have no opinion on Letby's guilt or innocence but, that table is bullshit if the prosecution presented it as described in the blog post. 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

11 minutes ago, Bindy Badgy said:

 

I have no opinion on Letby's guilt or innocence but, that table is bullshit if the prosecution presented it as described in the blog post. 

from previous posts you appear to know your elbow from a hole in the ground when it comes to numbers / data / statistics so I’m not overly surprised at your rather forthright conclusion

 

[Bindy Badgy]

2 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

from previous posts you appear to know your elbow from a hole in the ground when it comes to numbers / data / statistics so I’m not overly surprised at your rather forthright conclusion

 

 

I'm doing a statistical modelling PhD so I hope I'm reasonably well informed!

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, Bindy Badgy said:

 

I'm doing a statistical modelling PhD so I hope I'm reasonably well informed!

👍

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, Mikey1874 said:

10 months of evidence was presented in court. Jury took 7 weeks to decide. Need to take a closer look at all of that before saying it was defective or just circumstantial. 

that’s why there’s an appeal process (available to both defence and prosecution) to hopefully get the correct outcome as often as possible which unfortunately will never be 100%

 

as you said in a previous post she’s only lodging an appeal there’s a long way to go and previous cases which have been overturned it has sometimes taken more than one appeal to get perceived ‘final’ justice

 

 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

I've had stuff going on recently so although I've watched a couple of things on the subject I haven't taken in as much as normal. But I just remembered how apparent overdoses stopped right after she did a course which described how embolisms can kill if air is accidentally injected.

in the space of a few posts you’ve gone from ‘once you get into it she’s a serial killer no doubt’ type-thing to ‘I’ve been too busy to look into it properly’ - even for here that’s a bit 🙄 😂

 

regarding reading material in your other post - I obtain all my non-football expertise from mumsnet 

 

they are like lightening on google and what’s  mature, discussed and reviewed knowledge over there is ground breaking stuff over here 😃👌

 

 

[BlueRiver]

So what exactly is so compelling here? 

 

I don't even think it's a certainty she'll be granted leave to appeal based on what I'm reading. 

[periodictabledancer]

2 hours ago, Bindy Badgy said:

 

I have no opinion on Letby's guilt or innocence but, that table is bullshit if the prosecution presented it as described in the blog post. 

What's the statisical probability of any nurse in the UK being on shift in that short a period coinciding with that many (suspicious) deaths? 

How many other deaths were there in that hospital in that period - and how many were natural causes/suspicious deaths.

He doesn't say- I haven't listened to the video but there's nothing in the text. 

[AlphonseCapone]

Folk are taking the piss by mentioning Quora and MumsNet as sources eh?

[Unknown user]

2 hours ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

in the space of a few posts you’ve gone from ‘once you get into it she’s a serial killer no doubt’ type-thing to ‘I’ve been too busy to look into it properly’ - even for here that’s a bit 🙄 😂

 

 

 

No I didn't, why do you make stuff up?

 

I said that although I've watched a couple of documentaries I hadn't been taking it in fully because I've had stuff going on.

 

47 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

Folk are taking the piss by mentioning Quora and MumsNet as sources eh?

 

God I hope so

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

13 minutes ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

No I didn't, why do you make stuff up?

 

I said that although I've watched a couple of documentaries I hadn't been taking it in fully because I've had stuff going on.

 

 

God I hope so

It’s  there for all to see (not that it’s important to anyone anyway (hopefully))

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Unknown user]

4 hours ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

I've had stuff going on recently so although I've watched a couple of things on the subject I haven't taken in as much as normal. 

 

2 hours ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

in the space of a few posts you’ve gone from ‘once you get into it she’s a serial killer no doubt’ type-thing to ‘I’ve been too busy to look into it properly’ - even for here that’s a bit 🙄 😂

 

19 minutes ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

No I didn't, why do you make stuff up?

 

I said that although I've watched a couple of documentaries I hadn't been taking it in fully because I've had stuff going on.

 

3 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

It’s  there for all to see (not that it’s important to anyone anyway (hopefully))

 

It certainly is

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 minute ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

 

 

 

It certainly is

 

 

I am sort of assuming they understand the meaning / sentiment of the phrase “type-thing” and recognise the difference between ‘ and “

 

stuff that wouldn’t need explained in the cauldron of intellect of mumsnet 😃👍

 

 

 

[Unknown user]

4 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

 

I am sort of assuming they understand the meaning / sentiment of the phrase “type-thing” and recognise the difference between ‘ and “

 

stuff that wouldn’t need explained in the cauldron of intellect of mumsnet 😃👍

 

****ing word soup mate, I never said I've been too busy to catch up. I haven't.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

11 minutes ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

****ing word soup mate, I never said I've been too busy to catch up. I haven't.

too busy / too distracted / not fully on it / more important priorities - whatever - the sentiment is you’re not on top of it as much as you would normally be or enough to make bold statements about it (albeit we’re just on a backwater football forum compared to the epl of mumsnet for example so it’s no big deal)

 

“I haven’t taken in as much as normal”

 

the humouress bit (albeit with respect to a very humourless subject matter) is that the above direct quote came after this one :

 

“once you get into it there’s no doubt the lassie’s a serial baby killer”

 

(assuming no typos by me here)

 

as I said 

 

Edited September 16, 2023 by MoncurMacdonaldMercer

[Unknown user]

2 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

too busy / too distracted / not fully on it / more important priorities - whatever - the sentiment is you’re not on top of it as much as you would normally be or enough to make bold statements about it (albeit we’re just on a backwater football forum compared to the epl of mumsnet for example so it’s no big deal)

 

“I haven’t taken in as much as normal”

 

the humourless bit (albeit with respect to a very humourless subject matter) is that the above direct quote came after this one :

 

“once you get into it there’s no doubt the lassie’s a serial baby killer”

 

(assuming no typos by me here)

 

as I said 

 

 

- I've watched a couple of documentaries.

 

- I didn't take in as much as I normally would.

 

- I did take in some of it, enough to be convinced.

 

- I haven't been too busy. If I had, I wouldn't have caught anything.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, check you out, acting all superior because you've been on Mumsnet! 🤣

[Mikey1874]

One case facing retrial. Think it was 6 cases jury couldn't decide on.

 

 

[Victorian]

Interesting.  I wonder if this is being retried on the basis of public interest or as a way to address her decision to fail to appear in court.  If new legislation comes in in time,  this will force her into court afterall.

[felix]

On 16/09/2023 at 13:52, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

 

I'm happy to read up on it, what would you recommend?

 

I'm not sure what relevance the plumber has, the defence can call who they like, or not.

 

On 16/09/2023 at 14:47, Bindy Badgy said:

 

I'm doing a statistical modelling PhD so I hope I'm reasonably well informed!

 

Have you read statistician Richard Gill's view on the LL case ?

He was heavily involved in the rota statistics in the Lucia de Berk case, which appears to have parallels.

 

https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats

[Spellczech]

I've always been a bit unsure if she was actually trying to kill babies or whether she was trying to create "medical drama". By this I mean that she was in a sense addicted to the panic, the "saving" of lives, and the gratitude that resulted from this. I think she was messed up to be doing what she was doing, but I think the deaths were more of an unfortunate end result than necessarily her intention...

 

Murder is murder though...

[Ulysses]

2 hours ago, Spellczech said:

I've always been a bit unsure if she was actually trying to kill babies or whether she was trying to create "medical drama". By this I mean that she was in a sense addicted to the panic, the "saving" of lives, and the gratitude that resulted from this. I think she was messed up to be doing what she was doing, but I think the deaths were more of an unfortunate end result than necessarily her intention...

 

Murder is murder though...

 

Good point, IMO.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

3 hours ago, Spellczech said:

I've always been a bit unsure if she was actually trying to kill babies or whether she was trying to create "medical drama". By this I mean that she was in a sense addicted to the panic, the "saving" of lives, and the gratitude that resulted from this. I think she was messed up to be doing what she was doing, but I think the deaths were more of an unfortunate end result than necessarily her intention...

 

Murder is murder though...

unlike Beverley allitt for example there is absolutely no evidence of her doing anything like this in her past professional or personal life i.e. being addicted to drama / panic / being the hero

 

that’s not to say it’s impossible she didn’t just wake up one morning and decide to try it and quite liked it

 

 

[Spellczech]

On 25/09/2023 at 17:00, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

unlike Beverley allitt for example there is absolutely no evidence of her doing anything like this in her past professional or personal life i.e. being addicted to drama / panic / being the hero

 

that’s not to say it’s impossible she didn’t just wake up one morning and decide to try it and quite liked it

 

 

But she was having a fling with one of the doctors who had to come running and try to save the babies. And it was repeatedly noted that the families gave her a lot of gratitude and one even made her godparent.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

6 hours ago, Spellczech said:

But she was having a fling with one of the doctors who had to come running and try to save the babies. And it was repeatedly noted that the families gave her a lot of gratitude and one even made her godparent.

 

yeah that ‘fling with the doctor’ theory would have fitted better had she not started murdering the babies before he worked at the hospital

 

as for the families giving gratitude and godparent stuff it’s fairly normal stuff no? The gratitude anyway literally could apply to any nurse