Scottish Parliament election in the Lothian region - what's going to happen?

[The Frenchman Returns]

10 hours ago, Ulysses said:

Thanks to the two or three people who engaged with the questions.

 

Just as a reminder, what I'm interested in is what people think will happen to the 16 seats in the region when a couple of hundred thousand people go out to vote.  It's something I'd imagine people on the board would be interested in.  If I recall correctly from my days on the management team at JKB, a huge percentage of JKB posters will be voting in that region and those constituencies.

 

So, leaving aside how YOU plan to vote, how do you think the results will work out?  Me, I'm still not sure and I wouldn't make my mind up until the day itself, though right now late on Monday night if I had to take a bet I'd gamble on the SNP gaining one, the Tories losing one and no other changes.

Thanks for trying to bring back on topic

 

Edinburgh West voter here. Still wavering, my head says Liberal whilst my heart says SNP. 2nd vote Alba.

 

Historically the West of Edinburgh has had a strong liberal base, in my lifetime Donald Gorrie, as a councillor and then MP. Throughout the Thatcher years it was Tory. The westminster seat has been unionist or liberal for over 100 years with the exception of a couple of occasions. 

Edited May 4 by The Frenchman Returns

[hughesie27]

18 hours ago, JackLadd said:

 

Would like to see proof up to April this year and what his domicile status is. Not taking a tweet as evidence.  Likely he is not declaring all his earnings. 

Just perfect. Amazing. 

 

 

In terms of the election I'd like to see how Alba do. I'm unsure if I should be SNP 1 + 2 or give Alba or Greens my 2nd. The argument that SNP 2nd vote is a bit of a waste seems a strong one but I can't say I've looked much into it. Happy to be educated here.

[JackLadd]

4 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Just perfect. Amazing. 

 

 

In terms of the election I'd like to see how Alba do. I'm unsure if I should be SNP 1 + 2 or give Alba or Greens my 2nd. The argument that SNP 2nd vote is a bit of a waste seems a strong one but I can't say I've looked much into it. Happy to be educated here.

 

Trash the hood with these clowns by all means but don't expect me to pay for it. 

[Juan Jose Carricondo Perez]

23 hours ago, Tazio said:

West Edinburgh is a bizarre little Lib Dem pocket of support for whatever reason. 

Growing up here is was always folk like Barrett who lived locally. Think living in the area was a big part of that. 
more recently it’s tactical voting as seen by comments in the thread. You only really have a choice of 2 parties. 
 

Had both SNP and Lib Dem candidates knock my door and had decent chat with both. Masson didn’t try argue against my view on Indy though which I was surprised about. 

[Nucky Thompson]

1 hour ago, Juan Jose Carricondo Perez said:

Growing up here is was always folk like Barrett who lived locally. Think living in the area was a big part of that. 
more recently it’s tactical voting as seen by comments in the thread. You only really have a choice of 2 parties. 
 

Had both SNP and Lib Dem candidates knock my door and had decent chat with both. Masson didn’t try argue against my view on Indy though which I was surprised about. 

The Lib Dems are active around Edinburgh West all the time, not just when there's an election.

 

I see Jane Alliston delivering their news letter regularly in my street.

 

Never saw head nor tail of Masson.

She's maybe scared of Unionist German Shepherds  I think if any stranger came in my gate, they would double back pronto

[Juan Jose Carricondo Perez]

15 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The Lib Dems are active around Edinburgh West all the time, not just when there's an election.

 

Agreed. They always seem to be picking up on local issues

[Konrad von Carstein]

37 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The Lib Dems are active around Edinburgh West all the time, not just when there's an election.

 

I see Jane Alliston delivering their news letter regularly in my street.

 

Never saw head nor tail of Masson.

She's maybe scared of Unionist German Shepherds  I think if any stranger came in my gate, they would double back pronto

Is that the throat ripping devil mutts?

[Nucky Thompson]

5 minutes ago, Konrad von Carstein said:

Is that the throat ripping devil mutts?

That's the one, but she's really a pussycat 

[Sarah O]

12 hours ago, manaliveits105 said:

I'm voting tactical. 

 

SNP 1 Alba 2.

[ri Alban]

36 minutes ago, Konrad von Carstein said:

Is that the throat ripping devil mutts?

Lovely dugs, The Alsatian. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

36 minutes ago, Sarah O said:

I'm voting tactical. 

 

SNP 1 Alba 2.

 

[Roxy Hearts]

1 hour ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The Lib Dems are active around Edinburgh West all the time, not just when there's an election.

 

I see Jane Alliston delivering their news letter regularly in my street.

 

Never saw head nor tail of Masson.

She's maybe scared of Unionist German Shepherds  I think if any stranger came in my gate, they would double back pronto

Love German Shepherds. Great, intelligent dogs. Dislike Lib Dems 😉

 

[scott herbertson]

8 hours ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

Thanks for trying to bring back on topic

 

Edinburgh West voter here. Still wavering, my head says Liberal whilst my heart says SNP. 2nd vote Alba.

 

Historically the West of Edinburgh has had a strong liberal base, in my lifetime Donald Gorrie, as a councillor and then MP. Throughout the Thatcher years it was Tory. The westminster seat has been unionist or liberal for over 100 years with the exception of a couple of occasions. 

 

 

I actually campaigned for Gorrie back in the day -  he was a nice guy and had very well worked out position. Interestingly, one of his mantras was that the Lib Dems should 'never say never' to an independence referendum as it would condemn them to eternal junior coalition members with Labour in Scotland. 

[hughesie27]

Am I right in saying that the results won't be known till Friday night? do we usually not count until the following day?

[scott herbertson]

3 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Am I right in saying that the results won't be known till Friday night? do we usually not count until the following day?

 

 

From the Daily Record

 

The Electoral Management Board has released provisional dates, which suggest 47 constituency MSPs will be confirmed on Friday.

The remaining 26 are expected on Saturday.

 

Results expected on Friday:

Airdrie and Shotts

Coatbridge and Chryston

Falkirk East

Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse

Motherwell and Wishaw

Glasgow Anniesland

Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn

Glasgow Pollok

Glasgow Southside

Rutherglen

Argyll and Bute

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Inverness and Nairn

Moray

Orkney Islands

Shetland Islands

Edinburgh Central

Edinburgh Southern

Edinburgh Western

Linlithgow

Midlothian North and Musselburgh

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane

Cowdenbeath

Kirkcaldy

North East Fife

Perthshire North

Stirling

Aberdeen Central

Aberdeen Donside

Aberdeenshire East

Angus North and Mearns

 

Banffshire and Buchan Coast

Dundee City West

Ayr

East Lothian

Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire

Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley

Clydebank and Milngavie

Cunninghame North

Cunninghame South

Dumbarton

Eastwood

Greenock and Inverclyde

Paisley

Renfrewshire North and West

Strathkelvin and Bearsden

 

 

•  

Results expected on Saturday:

 

and Kilsyth

East Kilbride

Falkirk West

Uddingston and Bellshill

Glasgow Cathcart

Glasgow Kelvin

Glasgow Provan

Glasgow Shettleston

Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch

Almond Valley

Edinburgh Eastern

Edinburgh Northern and Leith

Edinburgh Pentlands

Dunfermline

Mid Fife and Glenrothes

Perthshire South and Kinrossshire

Aberdeen South and North Kincardine

Aberdeenshire West

Angus South

Dundee City East

Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley

Clydesdale Dumfriesshire Galloway and West Dumfries

Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale

Renfrewshire South

 

 

All the regional lists

[scott herbertson]

I think we'll have a good idea from the exit polls on Thursday night though

[The Frenchman Returns]

9 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

I actually campaigned for Gorrie back in the day -  he was a nice guy and had very well worked out position. Interestingly, one of his mantras was that the Lib Dems should 'never say never' to an independence referendum as it would condemn them to eternal junior coalition members with Labour in Scotland. 

When I bought a new build flat when I left home my rates bill was clearly incorrect. Was getting nowhere with the Council, just fobbed me off and my old man suggested I write to Gorrie, similar description from my dad, “he’s a good guy”. Within a month the Council backed down and I had my rebate. 
 

[The Frenchman Returns]

Galloway being interviewed on BBC 1

[manaliveits105]

Alex Salmond being interviewed now 

[Nucky Thompson]

2 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Lovely dugs, The Alsatian. 

I'm surprised at you referring to them as Alsatians 

Britain changed the name from German shepherd to Alsatian after WW1. The name was reverted back to German Shepherd in 1977

[manaliveits105]

1 hour ago, scott herbertson said:

I think we'll have a good idea from the exit polls on Thursday night though

They won’t reflect the postal votes which are substantial this time apparently 

[ri Alban]

42 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

I'm surprised at you referring to them as Alsatians 

Britain changed the name from German shepherd to Alsatian after WW1. The name was reverted back to German Shepherd in 1977

Always call them Alsatian. 

What type do you have, NT. Long or short haired. 

 

[JackLadd]

What percentage of SNP believers actually understand or know about the parlous state of Scotland's finances and deficit under Sturgeon (and before her Albaman) and the catastrophe that would have occurred this past twelve months if we were independent in Europe? £13bn down before a furlough ball is kicked and an EU bureaucracy that has worsened the whole crisis on the continent. They don't actually think beyond their next free methadone prescription. 

[Nucky Thompson]

12 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Always call them Alsatian. 

What type do you have, NT. Long or short haired. 

 

She is short haired black and tan 

[ri Alban]

2 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

She is short haired black and tan 

👍 A beauty. 

[Dirty Deeds]

20 hours ago, JackLadd said:

 

Yes. Edinburgh Central. Will have to be Tory Tory. I would vote any anti SNP candidate if that stopped them.

I think that could be the Lothian trend with the Tories taking unionist votes from Labour.  Overall though I think SNP will dominate and the Greens will improve their position. 

 

More pain for Labour then but I don't think that the remaining Labour (anti Tory) vote are ready to jump on the independence bandwagon.  They might next time if the Tories continue to sweep up in England. 

[JackLadd]

2 minutes ago, Dirty Deeds said:

I think that could be the Lothian trend with the Tories taking unionist votes from Labour.  Overall though I think SNP will dominate and the Greens will improve their position. 

 

More pain for Labour then but I don't think that the remaining Labour (anti Tory) vote are ready to jump on the independence bandwagon.  They might next time if the Tories continue to sweep up in England. 

 

How that snp in disguise Klondyke goblin Harvie gets one vote... 😡

[Dirty Deeds]

5 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

How that snp in disguise Klondyke goblin Harvie gets one vote... 😡

I think a lot of the electorate are happy to see the Greens influence government policy.  

 

If they change their name, I might even consider it on the List vote. 

[JackLadd]

2 minutes ago, Dirty Deeds said:

I think a lot of the electorate are happy to see the Greens influence government policy.  

 

If they change their name, I might even consider it on the List vote. 

 

I know one clown that votes for them. He thinks it's a protest vote but it's an SNP vote.

[jonesy]

To answer the OP, probably status quo.

 

 

[Ulysses]

20 hours ago, ri Alban said:

The British Isles.

 

If you say so. 

[Ulysses]

16 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

Daniel helped me last year with a personal issue . He really got things moving for me , kept me updated etc . So for purely personal reasons he’ gets my vote. But that’s What they are there for , to serve their constituents .he has put a lot of hard work into his campaign so hopefully he is successful . I actually don’t mind most of Labour policies either . I had voted Snp previous 

 

You've reminded me of a question that's probably off-topic, but maybe it isn't.  Presumably your local MSP is your local MSP, same as the way you'd regard a local MP.  But where do the regional list MSPs fit in?  Are they just regarded as voting fodder in the Parliament and not really people with a local base?

[Ulysses]

16 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

It does look like Independence at any cost for many nationalists, however.

 

I see that.  But is that any different to unionists who agree with many SNP policies but vote one of the unionist parties solely because of the constitutional question?  Apart from the fact that they agree with you on that question?

 

How different is that to people who insist on voting Green rather than anyone else (SNP or otherwise) because they have a sole focus on environmental issues and politics?

 

In the last general election here I was a single-issue voter, which is something I've never done before.  In my case it was housing.  Previously I've leaned towards parties on the basis of a couple of policies, but that was the first time I cut it down to one issue with an almost narrow-minded focus.  I could also see myself voting in an election here purely on the basis of party policies relating to the Border - it's not probable, but it's possible.  Sometimes that's what voters have to do in order to get the political system to give them what they want.

[Ulysses]

15 hours ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

Thanks for trying to bring back on topic

 

Edinburgh West voter here. Still wavering, my head says Liberal whilst my heart says SNP. 2nd vote Alba.

 

Historically the West of Edinburgh has had a strong liberal base, in my lifetime Donald Gorrie, as a councillor and then MP. Throughout the Thatcher years it was Tory. The westminster seat has been unionist or liberal for over 100 years with the exception of a couple of occasions. 

 

I don't know how popular the saying "all politics is local" is in Scotland, but it's very popular in Ireland.  The Liberals and the Liberal Democrats seem to have had local factors in their favour in some places, even in their worst years nationally.

 

 

15 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

Just perfect. Amazing. 

 

 

In terms of the election I'd like to see how Alba do. I'm unsure if I should be SNP 1 + 2 or give Alba or Greens my 2nd. The argument that SNP 2nd vote is a bit of a waste seems a strong one but I can't say I've looked much into it. Happy to be educated here.

 

In some foreign media, including ours, I've seen it suggested that Alba is a more conservative version of the SNP, but their website manifesto suggests otherwise - although a lot of the stuff is quite non-committal.  I like the Citizens' Assembly idea, but I don't know if that's Alba's idea or if other parties in Scotland use it.  We use Citizens' Assemblies here and they have made a significant contribution to our political and constitutional policy-making.

[Ulysses]

5 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

I'm surprised at you referring to them as Alsatians 

 

I knew someone a few years ago who was getting a German Shepherd pup, and was utterly mystified when someone suggested he call it "Lorraine". 

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

I see that.  But is that any different to unionists who agree with many SNP policies but vote one of the unionist parties solely because of the constitutional question?  Apart from the fact that they agree with you on that question?

 

How different is that to people who insist on voting Green rather than anyone else (SNP or otherwise) because they have a sole focus on environmental issues and politics?

 

In the last general election here I was a single-issue voter, which is something I've never done before.  In my case it was housing.  Previously I've leaned towards parties on the basis of a couple of policies, but that was the first time I cut it down to one issue with an almost narrow-minded focus.  I could also see myself voting in an election here purely on the basis of party policies relating to the Border - it's not probable, but it's possible.  Sometimes that's what voters have to do in order to get the political system to give them what they want.

People who disagree with Scotland leaving the UK and becoming an independent country, are not automatically 'unionists'. 

 

[Ulysses]

11 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

People who disagree with Scotland leaving the UK and becoming an independent country, are not automatically 'unionists'. 

 

 

So what do you think the results will look like in the Lothian region?

[JyTees]

From a personal point of view, Pentlands will be blue again. Haven't seen many rabid Nats with their posters and rosettes plastered in their windows this time round. Perhaps they're embarrassed to show support for a party that's failed for well over a decade now? Or maybe, voters are actually beginning to see the light? 🤞🏻

 

Can honestly say, I haven't heard anyone admit to backing them this time, and that includes previous supporters.

 

Maybe it's the company I keep 🤔

[Swahili Jambo]

9 minutes ago, JyTees said:

From a personal point of view, Pentlands will be blue again. Haven't seen many rabid Nats with their posters and rosettes plastered in their windows this time round. Perhaps they're embarrassed to show support for a party that's failed for well over a decade now? Or maybe, voters are actually beginning to see the light? 🤞🏻

 

Can honestly say, I haven't heard anyone admit to backing them this time, and that includes previous supporters.

 

Maybe it's the company I keep 🤔

Get the kleenex in as you will need them to dry your eyes.  Pentlands betting odds: SNP 1/6 and obviously a shoe in.  Tickety tick tock.  

[frankblack]

6 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

I see that.  But is that any different to unionists who agree with many SNP policies but vote one of the unionist parties solely because of the constitutional question?  Apart from the fact that they agree with you on that question?

 

There are also some who vote SNP also because they can't stomach the alternatives in Scotland but would never vote for independence.

 

Scottish Labour is a complete mystery to me at this election, with a leader who thinks its still the 1990s with their main rival being the Scottish Conservatives whilst ignoring the SNP.

 

This basically leaves a lot of tactical voters in many seats with no choice as two unionist parties who will take votes from each other and let the SNP in.

 

6 hours ago, Ulysses said:

How different is that to people who insist on voting Green rather than anyone else (SNP or otherwise) because they have a sole focus on environmental issues and politics?

 

I do wonder if the Greens will suffer as the Lib Dems did from their coalition with the Tories at Westminster.

 

6 hours ago, Ulysses said:

In the last general election here I was a single-issue voter, which is something I've never done before.  In my case it was housing.  Previously I've leaned towards parties on the basis of a couple of policies, but that was the first time I cut it down to one issue with an almost narrow-minded focus.  I could also see myself voting in an election here purely on the basis of party policies relating to the Border - it's not probable, but it's possible.  Sometimes that's what voters have to do in order to get the political system to give them what they want.

 

That is the way I see the council elections, but in Edinburgh the SNP and Labour teamed up to keep the tories out and look what we ended up with with the "spaces for people" scheme and increased congestion due to anti-car measures forced through using Covid legislation.

 

I wish people would vote on the local issues at those elections rather than the national ones.  The SNP and Labour have been a disaster for Edinburgh City.

[Ainsley Harriott]

On 03/05/2021 at 09:06, Des Lynam said:

What an utterly depressing situation. The man is a *****. 

Correct a guy that celebrates when old folks die.

[Ainsley Harriott]

East Lothian is on a knife edge between labour and the Nationalists. Think I will switch my vote to labour to keep them out.

[JyTees]

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

 

The SNP and Labour have been a disaster for Edinburgh City.

 

Unmitigated. And I don't know anyone who would disagree. Even the mad *******s on here can't deny it!

 

[JackLadd]

 

1 hour ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

East Lothian is on a knife edge between labour and the Nationalists. Think I will switch my vote to labour to keep them out.

 

Just pray more think the same. Don't vote for anybody but the candidate most likely to stop the crazy SNP.  

Edited May 5 by JackLadd

[Smithee]

1 hour ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

Correct a guy that celebrates when old folks die.

See when this is the shite you have to resort to...

[manaliveits105]

20th September 2020

Angus Robertson slated for saying elderly deaths a 'gain' for independence amid pandemic

By Tom Gordon  @HTScotPolScottish Political Editor

[Ainsley Harriott]

11 minutes ago, Smithee said:

See when this is the shite you have to resort to...

It's not shite though he did

[Des Lynam]

6 hours ago, JyTees said:

From a personal point of view, Pentlands will be blue again. Haven't seen many rabid Nats with their posters and rosettes plastered in their windows this time round. Perhaps they're embarrassed to show support for a party that's failed for well over a decade now? Or maybe, voters are actually beginning to see the light? 🤞🏻

 

Can honestly say, I haven't heard anyone admit to backing them this time, and that includes previous supporters.

 

Maybe it's the company I keep 🤔

I’ll be voting for Gordon Macdonald because I’ve had dealings with him and he’s a competent politician. I agree with Gordon Lindhurst’s view on the hate crime bill though.  I vote Jason Rust Conservative at council level because in my opinion he does a lot for the area. 

 

15 minutes ago, Smithee said:

See when this is the shite you have to resort to...

It’s also shameful folk condone this because they back the SNP. 

Edited May 5 by Des Lynam

[Smithee]

8 minutes ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

It's not shite though he did

 

5 minutes ago, Des Lynam said:

It’s also shameful folk condone this because they back the SNP. 

 

Here's what he actually said

 

"Since 2014, opinions have clearly not been static, and polls have shown a gradual rise in support for independence.

This could be significant partly because of the underlying change in the electorate, with roughly 55,000 predominantly Yes supporting 16-year-olds joining the electorate and 55,000 predominantly No supporting older voters passing away every year.”

 

 

 

Here's what AH says he said

 

"a guy that celebrates when old folks die"

 

 

 

If you can't see what scummy patter that is, you just keep voting tory guys

[Ainsley Harriott]

I reckon if Rolf Harris stood for the SNP he would get a decent number of votes. Their desire for hatred, separation and anglaphobia overrides any moral compass they might have.