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Scottish Parliament election in the Lothian region - what's going to happen?


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Tazio
3 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

In my experience, there's always an element of fact denying involved when it comes to Separatists, doesn't matter if it's the Scottish Government's own economic data or the Institute of Fiscal Studies. Even the milder ones believe in the conspiracy theories.

There’s an element of fact denying from anyone who follows a particular political party or movement, no matter what that party or it’s policies are. 

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pablo
4 minutes ago, Tazio said:

There’s an element of fact denying from anyone who follows a particular political party or movement, no matter what that party or it’s policies are. 

 

Of course, but to fully believe in the economic case for removing Scotland from the UK, you have to believe that our governments, both Scottish and UK are making up data to hide Scotland's true wealth and that bodies, such as the IFS are wrong. Mental 

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Konrad von Carstein
21 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

In my experience, there's always an element of fact denying involved when it comes to Separatists, doesn't matter if it's the Scottish Government's own economic data or the Institute of Fiscal Studies. Even the milder ones believe in the conspiracy theories.

And in my experience, there is mainly the belief that we want Scotland to run it's own affairs as any normal independent country should.

 

 

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BarneyBattles
1 hour ago, Nucky Thompson said:

There's a couple of headbangers on this thread higher up the list.

One makes a constant tit of himself 


Very gracious of you to admit that Nucky😀

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Weakened Offender
4 hours ago, JackLadd said:

 

Why the eff should I? Nothing has been proven. 

 

What a state to get into. 😁

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Roxy Hearts
3 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

There's a couple of headbangers on this thread higher up the list.

One makes a constant tit of himself 

Jack Ladd?

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JackLadd
1 minute ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Jack Ladd?

 

Today the biggest walloper here is you, Roxy. No answers on the economic collapse an iScotland in the EU would mean. Crickets! 

 

Time you admitted your agenda is Indy at any cost which is what you and the snp are pushing 100% on Thursday along with bribe n lie. If the SNP admitted they are for Indy at any cost I'd have a smidgeon of respect instead all they can do is bribe n lie and hoodwink wains and dafties. 

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Roxy Hearts
6 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

Today the biggest walloper here is you, Roxy. No answers on the economic collapse an iScotland in the EU would mean. Crickets! 

 

Time you admitted your agenda is Indy at any cost which is what you and the snp are pushing 100% on Thursday along with bribe n lie. If the SNP admitted they are for Indy at any cost I'd have a smidgeon of respect instead all they can do is bribe n lie and hoodwink wains and dafties. 

I have no agenda. Independence is normal, most countries are!

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JackLadd
31 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

I have no agenda. Independence is normal, most countries are!

 

We have a country it's called Britain, a small island we share with England and Wales. 

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Ulysses

Thanks to the two or three people who engaged with the questions.

 

Just as a reminder, what I'm interested in is what people think will happen to the 16 seats in the region when a couple of hundred thousand people go out to vote.  It's something I'd imagine people on the board would be interested in.  If I recall correctly from my days on the management team at JKB, a huge percentage of JKB posters will be voting in that region and those constituencies.

 

So, leaving aside how YOU plan to vote, how do you think the results will work out?  Me, I'm still not sure and I wouldn't make my mind up until the day itself, though right now late on Monday night if I had to take a bet I'd gamble on the SNP gaining one, the Tories losing one and no other changes.

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JamesM48
6 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Thanks to the two or three people who engaged with the questions.

 

Just as a reminder, what I'm interested in is what people think will happen to the 16 seats in the region when a couple of hundred thousand people go out to vote.  It's something I'd imagine people on the board would be interested in.  If I recall correctly from my days on the management team at JKB, a huge percentage of JKB posters will be voting in that region and those constituencies.

 

So, leaving aside how YOU plan to vote, how do you think the results will work out?  Me, I'm still not sure and I wouldn't make my mind up until the day itself, though right now late on Monday night if I had to take a bet I'd gamble on the SNP gaining one, the Tories losing one and no other changes.

I’m hoping Daniel Johnson is re-elected for Labour Edinburgh southern he’s a decent principled hard working msp 

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Tazio
16 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Thanks to the two or three people who engaged with the questions.

 

Just as a reminder, what I'm interested in is what people think will happen to the 16 seats in the region when a couple of hundred thousand people go out to vote.  It's something I'd imagine people on the board would be interested in.  If I recall correctly from my days on the management team at JKB, a huge percentage of JKB posters will be voting in that region and those constituencies.

 

So, leaving aside how YOU plan to vote, how do you think the results will work out?  Me, I'm still not sure and I wouldn't make my mind up until the day itself, though right now late on Monday night if I had to take a bet I'd gamble on the SNP gaining one, the Tories losing one and no other changes.

The SNP certainly won’t lose anything in this election. Despite perception from their supporters they’ve had a relatively easy ride from the press over the last 12 months with Sturgeon being praised for her handling of the COVID issue. The only spanner in the works could be people conflating the Edinburgh council’s performance with the parliamentary party. Labour have just taken too long to start to get their act together, and the Conservatives have made a very poor choice of leader who seems universally unpopular and lightweight. Lib Dem as mentioned in the thread will probably hold what they have. 

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Ulysses
10 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

I’m hoping Daniel Johnson is re-elected for Labour Edinburgh southern he’s a decent principled hard working msp 

 

SNP won it by less than 700 votes in 2011, when it was almost a 4-way marginal.  The Lib Dem vote collapsed in 2016, and this time Johnson won it by about 1,100 votes.

 

To what extent to local factors and personalities play out in constituencies in Scotland?  They're a huge influence here.  You'd wonder if the SNP candidate has what it takes to overhaul Johnson.  And it's worth remembering that the Tories weren't that far off the pace in 2016.

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Roxy Hearts
29 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

We have a country it's called Britain, a small island we share with England and Wales. 

Britain is not a country! What's sharing an island got to do with it. I don't care who the English or Welsh vote for it's their problem.

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Ulysses
3 minutes ago, Tazio said:

The SNP certainly won’t lose anything in this election. Despite perception from their supporters they’ve had a relatively easy ride from the press over the last 12 months with Sturgeon being praised for her handling of the COVID issue. The only spanner in the works could be people conflating the Edinburgh council’s performance with the parliamentary party. Labour have just taken too long to start to get their act together, and the Conservatives have made a very poor choice of leader who seems universally unpopular and lightweight. Lib Dem as mentioned in the thread will probably hold what they have. 

 

And any gains for the SNP?  Central looks like a serious prospect, and Southern is a definite marginal (sorry James).  You'd imagine Cole-Hamilton should hold the seat in Western.

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Tazio
Just now, Ulysses said:

 

And any gains for the SNP?  Central looks like a serious prospect, and Southern is a definite marginal (sorry James).  You'd imagine Cole-Hamilton should hold the seat in Western.

I genuinely wouldn’t make any predictions for this election as public opinion seems to be swaying every which way just now. Cole-Hamilton will be safe I reckon, and Central will be an interesting one as we’ll find out if it’s been a personality over policies seat recently though my gut feeling is will go to SNP. 

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JackLadd
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Britain is not a country! What's sharing an island got to do with it. I don't care who the English or Welsh vote for it's their problem.

 

 

From Wikipedia: Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a sovereign country in north-western Europe.

 

That clear that up for you Roxy? The rest of your post is narrow minded verging on bigotry. 

Edited by JackLadd
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Smithee
1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

From Wikipedia: Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a sovereign country in north-western Europe.

 

That clear that up for you Roxy? The rest of your post is narrow minded verging on bigotry. 

Oh right so the island of Britain is a country is it? You got that right did you?

You're coming apart at the seams man

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JackLadd
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Oh right so the island of Britain is a country is it? You got that right did you?

You're coming apart at the seams man

 

 

Its says on my passport it is so that's enough for me. 

 

 

And you or the snp are not taking that away btw.

 

Edited by JackLadd
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Ulysses
Just now, JackLadd said:

 

 

Its says on my passport it is so that's enough for me. 

 

 

 

So what do you think the results will look like in the Lothian region?

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Smithee
2 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

Its says on my passport it is so that's enough for me. 

 

 

And you or the snp are not taking that away btw.

Your passport doesn't say this island is called Britain or that it's a country.

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Ulysses
2 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Your passport doesn't say this island is called Britain or that it's a country.

 

So...

 

 

...what do you think the results will look like in the Lothian region?

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JackLadd
Just now, Smithee said:

Your passport doesn't say this island is called Britain or that it's a country.

 

It says United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. As of today I live in Great Britain the island the Romans called Britannia. 

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Smithee
1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

So...

 

 

...what do you think the results will look like in the Lothian region?

**** knows I don't live there, haven't for nearly 20 years and polls are notoriously unreliable.

 

The unionists have got particularly shrill very early though which suggests they're not very comfortable.

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Smithee
1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

It says United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. As of today I live in Great Britain the island the Romans called Britannia. 

 

Well that's certainly more accurate than what you actually said

 

"We have a country it's called Britain, a small island we share with England and Wales"

 

You have a right problem with admitting getting things wrong eh? 

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JackLadd
1 minute ago, Smithee said:

 

The unionists have got particularly shrill very early though which suggests they're not very comfortable.

 

 

How dare anybody be uncomfortable with what the SNP want for Scotland. The scoundrel SNP should terrify any thinking Scot not blind to their lies. 

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Ulysses
1 minute ago, Smithee said:

**** knows I don't live there, haven't for nearly 20 years and polls are notoriously unreliable.

 

 

Are they, though?  Last time, the polls did the job they were designed to do.  They didn't land anything exactly right, but everything was well within normal margins of error.  The problem with the polls isn't unreliability.  It's that they tend to be national, so while they might give a good pointer across the election as a whole, they don't necessarily tell you what will happen in particular areas.

 

On the subject of living there, I remember when I was involved in the management team here seeing how local the JKB membership base was.  I can't remember the percentages, but that stats showed that only a small minority of people accessing the board were "far from Gorgie".

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Ulysses
2 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

How dare anybody be uncomfortable with what the SNP want for Scotland. The scoundrel SNP should terrify any thinking Scot not blind to their lies. 

 

Yes.

 

And what do you think the results will look like in the Lothian region?

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JackLadd
2 hours ago, Smithee said:

 

Well that's certainly more accurate than what you actually said

 

"We have a country it's called Britain, a small island we share with England and Wales"

 

You have a right problem with admitting getting things wrong eh? 

 

Britain is an island. NI is a province or British territory which is why they are separate.  

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Smithee
1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

Are they, though?  Last time, the polls did the job they were designed to do.  They didn't land anything exactly right, but everything was well within normal margins of error.  The problem with the polls isn't unreliability.  It's that they tend to be national, so while they might give a good pointer across the election as a whole, they don't necessarily tell you what will happen in particular areas.

 

On the subject of living there, I remember when I was involved in the management team here seeing how local the JKB membership base was.  I can't remember the percentages, but that stats showed that only a small minority of people accessing the board were "far from Gorgie".

I don't know, when I say unreliable I should say they're an inexact science. They'll be broadly right within tolerances but there's still quite a variation of results available within those tolerances.

 

I don't live or work in the area, I don't read much from the polls so I don't have much to go on.

 

I don't think the SNP are falling though.

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Smithee
3 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

Britain is an island. NI is a province or British territory which is why they are separate. You really are quite stupid. 

Bit personal considering you're the one getting stuff wrong mate.

 

Great Britain is an island, Britain isn't.

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Ulysses
4 minutes ago, Smithee said:

I don't know, when I say unreliable I should say they're an inexact science.

 

 

Good for trends though, and on that basis there isn't a lot of evidence that SNP support is falling.  In fact, the national picture suggests very little overall change from 2016.

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JackLadd

 

 

Just now, Smithee said:

Bit personal considering you're the one getting stuff wrong mate.

 

Great Britain is an island, Britain isn't.

 

And I intend keeping it great. Great Britain. Thanks. 

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Ulysses
1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

 

And I intend keeping it great. Great Britain. Thanks. 

 

Will you be voting in an Edinburgh constituency?

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JackLadd
11 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Yes.

 

And what do you think the results will look like in the Lothian region?

 

Not holding out huge hope given the level of lies they have spun to the gullible. No gains a minimum. 

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Ulysses
2 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

Not holding out huge hope given the level of lies they have spun to the gullible. No gains a minimum. 

 

My own take on it is that there will be very little change across Scotland, and in Lothian there's probably one extra seat in it for the SNP at the expense of the Conservatives.

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JackLadd
2 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Will you be voting in an Edinburgh constituency?

 

Yes. Edinburgh Central. Will have to be Tory Tory. I would vote any anti SNP candidate if that stopped them.

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JackLadd
4 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

My own take on it is that there will be very little change across Scotland, and in Lothian there's probably one extra seat in it for the SNP at the expense of the Conservatives.

 

It's going to be a scary night given the agenda they are going to push if unhindered. Very damaging to Scotland, its commerce and fabric, and hugely stressful to many ordinary Scots who don't want to be put through the ringer again. Much worse than 2014 given we are out of the EU with a hard earned trade deal that the SNP want to tear up. 

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Ulysses
2 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

Yes. Edinburgh Central. Will have to be Tory Tory. I would vote any anti SNP candidate if that stopped them.

 

The Conservatives always scored about 15-17% in Edinburgh Central until Ruth Davidson was the candidate in 2016 and doubled the tally.  She got most of her vote from Labour and the Lib Dems, and who knows if Scott Douglas will retain that element of the vote.  I also wonder if Alison Johnstone might put in a better than expected performance for the Greens. 

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Ulysses
3 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

It's going to be a scary night given the agenda they are going to push if unhindered. Very damaging to Scotland, its commerce and fabric, and hugely stressful to many ordinary Scots who don't want to be put through the ringer again. Much worse than 2014 given we are out of the EU with a hard earned trade deal that the SNP want to tear up. 

 

I'll happily post about Scotland, the UK and trade, but on another thread - and as you can gather I'm not short of opinions on the matter.  I'm far more interested in what will happen than in what people want to happen, and it is of local interest to Hearts supporters, which is why I posted the thread.

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ri Alban
3 hours ago, JackLadd said:

 

Britain is an island. NI is a province or British territory which is why they are separate.  

The British Isles. 

Big Island - Great Britain which consists of England, Wales and Caledonian. You know, the place Romans couldn't conquer. Pity they didn't have traitors back then. They might not have had to build a couple of walls. 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, pablo said:

 

Of course, but to fully believe in the economic case for removing Scotland from the UK, you have to believe that our governments, both Scottish and UK are making up data to hide Scotland's true wealth and that bodies, such as the IFS are wrong. Mental 

Well it's been proved that the uk government hid reports about the worth of North Sea oil as they were worried about it leading to a surge of support for our independence. Fact by the way

Edited to stay on topic😊. Would love Hamilton to lose his seat but I doubt it. Would settle for snp staying with the same number as before 

Edited by XB52
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JamesM48
7 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

SNP won it by less than 700 votes in 2011, when it was almost a 4-way marginal.  The Lib Dem vote collapsed in 2016, and this time Johnson won it by about 1,100 votes.

 

To what extent to local factors and personalities play out in constituencies in Scotland?  They're a huge influence here.  You'd wonder if the SNP candidate has what it takes to overhaul Johnson.  And it's worth remembering that the Tories weren't that far off the pace in 2016.

Daniel helped me last year with a personal issue . He really got things moving for me , kept me updated etc . So for purely personal reasons he’ gets my vote. But that’s What they are there for , to serve their constituents .he has put a lot of hard work into his campaign so hopefully he is successful . I actually don’t mind most of Labour policies either . I had voted Snp previous 

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3fingersreid

Edinburgh Pentlands will be close again between the snp and tories. No chance of any other party winning it . 
 

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Nucky Thompson
6 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Daniel helped me last year with a personal issue . He really got things moving for me , kept me updated etc . So for purely personal reasons he’ gets my vote. But that’s What they are there for , to serve their constituents .he has put a lot of hard work into his campaign so hopefully he is successful . I actually don’t mind most of Labour policies either . I had voted Snp previous 

That's as good a reason as any to give someone your vote :thumbsup:

 

I can't understand why people choose a political party and stick with them like a football team.

 

Political parties should be judged on their performance

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JamesM48
14 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

That's as good a reason as any to give someone your vote :thumbsup:

 

I can't understand why people choose a political party and stick with them like a football team.

 

Political parties should be judged on their performance

Exactly Nucky , we aren’t trees 🌲 

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frankblack
18 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

That's as good a reason as any to give someone your vote :thumbsup:

 

I can't understand why people choose a political party and stick with them like a football team.

 

Political parties should be judged on their performance

 

Spot on.

 

If the party I vote for ****s me over I'll put my vote elsewhere.

 

It does look like Independence at any cost for many nationalists, however.

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Konrad von Carstein
8 hours ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

 

And I intend keeping it great. Great Britain. Thanks. 

It appears that you are (blissfully) unaware the the "Great"  in Great Britain doesn't mean "Awesome"  or "Brilliant".

 

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Shanks

I used to live in Gilmerton and I’m interested to see how that vote plays out.  There has been a lot of huge housing developments spring up around places like Gilmerton and I wonder if this will change the makeup of the votes in these traditionally labour areas.  
 

I now stay in Edinburgh Western and it seems to be between lib dem and SNP, I don’t stick to the same party like a football team and I’m still pretty undecided this time around. 

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