Scottish Parliament election in the Lothian region - what's going to happen?

[Ulysses]

Just wondering how people think Thursday's election will go in the Lothian region.

 

Last time out in 2016, the breakdown of the 9 constituency seats was SNP 6, Con 1, Lab 1, LibDem 1.

 

The SNP won Almond Valley (with a 24% majority), Edinburgh Eastern (14%), Edinburgh Northern & Leith (16%), Edinburgh Pentlands (7%), Linlithgow (24%), and Midlothian North & Musselburgh (20%).  I think all six of their sitting MSPs are standing again.

 

The Conservatives won Edinburgh Central by 3% when Ruth Davidson gained from the SNP.  She's not running this time, while the SNP candidate is Angus Robertson.

 

Labour won in Edinburgh Southern by 3% from the SNP, with the Conservatives not too far behind.  Daniel Johnson is running again for Labour, and Miles Briggs for the Conservatives.  Catriona MacDonald is running for the SNP, having finished a distant second to Labour's Ian Murray in Edinburgh South in the 2019 UK General Election.

 

The Liberal Democrats won by 7% from the SNP in Edinburgh Western - against the run of play, as it were.  Alex Cole-Hamilton is defending the seat this time.

 

In the regional vote, the scores on the doors in 2016 were SNP 36%, Con 23%, Lab 21%, Greens 11%, LibDems 6%, and the 7 seats were allocated Con 3, Lab 2, Grn 2.

 

Given where the national opinion polls are, will anything change by much?  Can anyone unseat the six SNP incumbents given their majorities?  Will Angus Robertson swing the Edinburgh Central seat back to the SNP from the Conservatives?  If he does, have the Conservatives any real prospects elsewhere in the region?  Will Johnson hold on to his seat in Edinburgh Southern, or is there a possibility that either Briggs or MacDonald could swing it?  Will the Liberal Democrats hang on in Edinburgh Western or has Sarah Masson a prospect, bearing in mind that she also lost by a 6-7% margin to the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West in the 2019 UK General Election?

 

I haven't got a definitive view yet as I'm waiting to see what polls or news there is over the next day or two.  Any thoughts?  Notions?  Gossip?

Edited May 3 by Ulysses

[dobmisterdobster]

Edinburgh Central will probably go to the SNP since Ruth isn't standing again.

Will Alba win any seats? Maybe.

[AlimOzturk]

Angus Robertson will almost certainly win Edinburgh Central. 

[Roxy Hearts]

6 hours ago, Ulysses said:

Just wondering how people think Thursday's election will go in the Lothian region.

 

Last time out in 2016, the breakdown of the 9 constituency seats was SNP 6, Con 1, Lab 1, LibDem 1.

 

The SNP won Almond Valley (with a 24% majority), Edinburgh Eastern (14%), Edinburgh Northern & Leith (16%), Edinburgh Pentlands (7%), Linlithgow (24%), and Midlothian North & Musselburgh (20%).  I think all six of their sitting MSPs are standing again.

 

The Conservatives won Edinburgh Central by 3% when Ruth Davidson gained from the SNP.  She's not running this time, while the SNP candidate is Angus Robertson.

 

Labour won in Edinburgh Southern by 3% from the SNP, with the Conservatives not too far behind.  Daniel Johnson is running again for Labour, and Miles Briggs for the Conservatives.  Catriona MacDonald is running for the SNP, having finished a distant second to Labour's Ian Murray in Edinburgh South in the 2019 UK General Election.

 

The Liberal Democrats won by 7% from the SNP in Edinburgh Western - against the run of play, as it were.  Alex Cole-Hamilton is defending the seat this time.

 

In the regional vote, the scores on the doors in 2016 were SNP 36%, Con 23%, Lab 21%, Greens 11%, LibDems 6%, and the 7 seats were allocated Con 3, Lab 2, Grn 2.

 

Given where the national opinion polls are, will anything change by much?  Can anyone unseat the six SNP incumbents given their majorities?  Will Angus Robertson swing the Edinburgh Central seat back to the SNP from the Conservatives?  If he does, have the Conservatives any real prospects elsewhere in the region?  Will Johnson hold on to his seat in Edinburgh Southern, or is there a possibility that either Briggs or MacDonald could swing it?  Will the Liberal Democrats hang on in Edinburgh Western or has Sarah Masson a prospect, bearing in mind that she also lost by a 6-7% margin to the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West in the 2019 UK General Election?

 

I haven't got a definitive view yet as I'm waiting to see what polls or news there is over the next day or two.  Any thoughts?  Notions?  Gossip?

Can't stand Cole-Hamilton in my constituency so hopefully Sarah wins. It will be difficult though. He's a smarmy, aggressive idiot who has nothing to offer Scotland like most of his ilk.

[Des Lynam]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

Angus Robertson will almost certainly win Edinburgh Central. 

What an utterly depressing situation. The man is a *****. 

[Homme]

I'm in the Linlithgow constituency . I dont see much change tbh. I'd have the SNP with an 20%+ majority.

 

This is the first election I can recall having no appeal for any candidates or parties. Still undecided at this stage. 

[Nucky Thompson]

1 hour ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Can't stand Cole-Hamilton in my constituency so hopefully Sarah wins. It will be difficult though. He's a smarmy, aggressive idiot who has nothing to offer Scotland like most of his ilk.

Alex will win again as he's well like by everyone except the rabid Nats.

 

I don't particularly like the Lib Dems but everyone in my household will vote for them

 

#Tactical Voting

[John Findlay]

I have a hunch the status quo will exist after Thursday as stated currently by the OP

[Mars plastic]

2 hours ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Can't stand Cole-Hamilton in my constituency so hopefully Sarah wins. It will be difficult though. He's a smarmy, aggressive idiot who has nothing to offer Scotland just like the entire snp.

There you are now.

[Mars plastic]

C&U for me to keep fatso out.

[dtgj]

If the number of political posters in windows around here is anything to go by the Greens are taking about 90% of the regional list vote...

 

Maybe not as well as 90% in reality but I can see them taking more than they got last time. 

[AlimOzturk]

Fwiw I think Alba will win 6 list seats. After the SNP fail to get another Indy ref watch Alba soar in popularity. 
 

The SNP are playing a dangerous game with Alba by refusing point blank to work with them. They aren’t infallible no party is. (Ask Scottish Labour)

 

If Alba do well here then the SNP breaks might start to twitch. 

[luckydug]

12 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Fwiw I think Alba will win 6 list seats. After the SNP fail to get another Indy ref watch Alba soar in popularity. 
 

The SNP are playing a dangerous game with Alba by refusing point blank to work with them. They aren’t infallible no party is. (Ask Scottish Labour)

 

If Alba do well here then the SNP breaks might start to twitch. 

Alba will be lucky to get anything imo. 

[XB52]

19 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Fwiw I think Alba will win 6 list seats. After the SNP fail to get another Indy ref watch Alba soar in popularity. 
 

The SNP are playing a dangerous game with Alba by refusing point blank to work with them. They aren’t infallible no party is. (Ask Scottish Labour)

 

If Alba do well here then the SNP breaks might start to twitch. 

I hope Alba win 0 seats and AS can go back to political retirement. Pretty certain they don't have a Hope in hell of getting anything in Lothian but may grab 1 in Aberdeen area. Hope the greens gain seats overall

[dobmisterdobster]

24 minutes ago, XB52 said:

I hope Alba win 0 seats and AS can go back to political retirement. Pretty certain they don't have a Hope in hell of getting anything in Lothian but may grab 1 in Aberdeen area. Hope the greens gain seats overall

 

If Salmond goes into retirement, the Yes campaign doesn't have a hope of winning a referendum.

Sturgeon cannot reach the same C2 working class male demographic.

[Paddy Crossan]

58 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Fwiw I think Alba will win 6 list seats. After the SNP fail to get another Indy ref watch Alba soar in popularity. 
 

The SNP are playing a dangerous game with Alba by refusing point blank to work with them. They aren’t infallible no party is. (Ask Scottish Labour)

 

If Alba do well here then the SNP breaks might start to twitch. 

I agree with you, 6 seats, maybe more.

[AlimOzturk]

People suggesting Alba will get nothing haven’t been watching recent polls which have suggested 6-8. 
 

They already have a bigger membership the the libs dems. 
 

The list seats are a tight affair. The Indy die hards will vote Alba imo. 

 

[ri Alban]

1 minute ago, AlimOzturk said:

People suggesting Alba will get nothing haven’t been watching recent polls which have suggested 6-8. 
 

They already have a bigger membership the the libs dems. 
 

The list seats are a tight affair. *The Indy die hards will vote Alba imo. 

 

Wrong. 

[AlimOzturk]

7 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Wrong. 

possibly. 
 

find out on the 6th. SNP 1/2 simply wasting your vote however. I don’t trust the greens and think they are simply hanging onto the coat tails of the independence movement. Say what you want about Salmond he truly want an independent Scotland.  hence my second vote going to Alba. 

[Lone Striker]

Quite an ironic parallel between the SNP/Alba and the 2 tinpot parties standing to abolish Holyrood - in terms of what they'd do if they won a majority on Thursday  (ok.... a bit hypothetical obviously) .  

 

Both are hamstrung by UK law and the UK government of the day.    In a similar way to Boris probably saying 'no' to an approach by Sturgeon to hold an indyref,   I suspect  Boris would  also say 'no' to an approach by whoever the leader of the anti-Holyrood parties is to have an anti-devo referendum.

 

We live in strange times.  🙄

 

 

[JackLadd]

Nice that Las Vegas resident Martin Compston wants you all to vote SNP. 

[Nucky Thompson]

Hopefully the residents of Edinburgh will send Sturgeon a message

[Roxy Hearts]

5 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Alex will win again as he's well like by everyone except the rabid Nats.

 

I don't particularly like the Lib Dems but everyone in my household will vote for them

 

#Tactical Voting

What policies are they voting for? SNP bad?

[Tazio]

25 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

Nice that Las Vegas resident Martin Compston wants you all to vote SNP. 

Compston still has a house in Scotland and pays UK taxes. I’m not an SNO fan but I also don’t fall for tabloid style snipes with no basis in fact. Whichever side it comes from. 

[Roxy Hearts]

27 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

Nice that Las Vegas resident Martin Compston wants you all to vote SNP. 

Well we have an American prime minister talking garbage about the UK!

[JackLadd]

Just now, Tazio said:

Compston still has a house in Scotland and pays UK taxes. I’m not an SNO fan but I also don’t fall for tabloid style snipes with no basis in fact. Whichever side it comes from. 

 

If he lives in Las Vegas he is not paying UK tax. 

[Tazio]

6 hours ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Can't stand Cole-Hamilton in my constituency so hopefully Sarah wins. It will be difficult though. He's a smarmy, aggressive idiot who has nothing to offer Scotland like most of his ilk.

West Edinburgh is a bizarre little Lib Dem pocket of support for whatever reason. 

[Tazio]

Just now, JackLadd said:

 

If he lives in Las Vegas he is not paying UK tax. 

Don’t be silly. 

[JackLadd]

Just now, Roxy Hearts said:

Well we have an American prime minister talking garbage about the UK!

 

Garbage is we'll have an open border with England with a Scotland in the EU. That's garbage. 

[Swahili Jambo]

30 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

Nice that Las Vegas resident Martin Compston wants you all to vote SNP. 

What is this sub-species called 'you'.  I'm sure you meant 'us' but there again, as you are obviously not very bright and a wannabe RFC bigot, please keep posting, it's entertaining.

[Gards]

5 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

If he lives in Las Vegas he is not paying UK tax. 

You are incorrect....again.  You can still be non-resident for tax purposes in the UK but still need to pay UK tax, especially if your earnings are UK sourced....but yet you're a tax expert now as well.

[Weakened Offender]

8 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

If he lives in Las Vegas he is not paying UK tax. 

 

Deary me. 

[Roxy Hearts]

1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

Garbage is we'll have an open border with England with a Scotland in the EU. That's garbage. 

You talk garbage, permanently! Every intelligent person knows that real politics happens when negotiations are required or are Westminster too rabid in their hatred of Scotland in this current so called equal partnership? 

 

Civil servants and economists administer the framework of states. Propaganda is used by political parties especially unionists. 

[JackLadd]

Just now, Gards said:

You are incorrect....again.  You can still be non-resident for tax purposes in the UK but still need to pay UK tax, especially if your earnings are UK sourced....but yet you're a tax expert now as well.

 

Who in their right mind moves to Vegas and pays the much higher rate of UK tax, Einstein? Btw Scotland's top rate is higher than England, you telling me he pays that also? Laughable SNP balloons.

[Tazio]

1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

Who in their right mind moves to Vegas and pays the much higher rate of UK tax, Einstein? Btw Scotland's top rate is higher than England, you telling me he pays that also? Laughable SNP balloons.

You don’t have a choice. It’s the law, and as his uk address is in Scotland he pays Scottish top rate tax. 
Probably quite a complicated concept for you but that’s how it works. 

[Gards]

3 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

Who in their right mind moves to Vegas and pays the much higher rate of UK tax, Einstein? Btw Scotland's top rate is higher than England, you telling me he pays that also? Laughable SNP balloons.

Yup - you're a troll....now confirmed.

[JackLadd]

3 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

You talk garbage, permanently! Every intelligent person knows that real politics happens when negotiations are required or are Westminster too rabid in their hatred of Scotland in this current so called equal partnership? 

 

Civil servants and economists administer the framework of states. Propaganda is used by political parties especially unionists. 

 

You haven't got a clue have you wee Roxy? The EU rules are not there to be bent by Sturgeon regards inspection of goods crossing into the EU. Civil servants my effin erse. 

[JackLadd]

1 minute ago, Gards said:

Yup - you're a troll....now confirmed.

 

And name calling doesn't make you right wee man. 

[jonnothejambo]

15 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Well we have an American prime minister talking garbage about the UK!

 

Same Old Scene.......

[Gards]

1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

And name calling doesn't make you right wee man. 

In the case of the tax question, yes it does.

[Roxy Hearts]

2 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

You haven't got a clue have you wee Roxy? The EU rules are not there to be bent by Sturgeon regards inspection of goods crossing into the EU. Civil servants my effin erse. 

All politicians are civil servants! They're not the ones negotiating or doing any of the administration. Example would be the governor of the Bank of England. You're clueless and a troll.

[JackLadd]

Just now, Gards said:

In the case of the tax question, yes it does.

 

So you think he sitting in Vegas paying the Scottish top rate of 46%?  

[Tazio]

Just now, JackLadd said:

 

So you think he sitting in Vegas paying the Scottish top rate of 46%?  

Which bit of it’s the law is causing you the most confusion? 

[Gards]

1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

So you think he sitting in Vegas paying the Scottish top rate of 46%?  

 

[JackLadd]

3 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

All politicians are civil servants! They're not the ones negotiating or doing any of the administration. Example would be the governor of the Bank of England. You're clueless and a troll.

 

You must be worse than a troll, a hobgoblin fairy dwarf with the brain of a highland midge. The EU are not going to abandon their rules for you. 

Edited May 3 by JackLadd

[Nucky Thompson]

22 minutes ago, Tazio said:

West Edinburgh is a bizarre little Lib Dem pocket of support for whatever reason. 

I only vote for them tactically. I'm sure there will be many others who do the same

[Smithee]

7 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

So you think he sitting in Vegas paying the Scottish top rate of 46%?  

 

5 minutes ago, Gards said:

 

 

9/10 would watch again

[Roxy Hearts]

4 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

You must be worse than a troll, a hobgoblin fairy dwarf with the brain of a highland midge. The EU are not going to abandon their rules for you. 

EU? WTF are you on about? 

[JackLadd]

1 minute ago, Gards said:

 

 

Would like to see proof up to April this year and what his domicile status is. Not taking a tweet as evidence.  Likely he is not declaring all his earnings. 

[JackLadd]

Just now, Roxy Hearts said:

EU? WTF are you on about? 

 

Did you reed my original post Roxy? A Scotland in the EU will NOT have an open border with England.