Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Fxxx the SPFL]

3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

They may well do but the media has no effect on what actually happens with the epidemic.  We've heard about mild symptoms but it's still a fragile hope.  Not proved out yet.  I pay little attention to the media headlines.  Much better info can be easily accessed.

In the future we could have multiple variants we can’t keep imposing restrictions lockdowns etc just get on with life folk will die of multiple different illnesses the world is overpopulated anyway. The number of deaths worldwide from Covid is minor compared with The Black Plague and even the Spanish flu all of this is of course IMO

[Victorian]

It's all academic now anyway.  It goes where it goes.  If things proceed much better than the worst case then great.  We look forward to spring and summer.  

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, Rocco_Jambo said:

We’ll definitely see Wee Jimmy Skanky bringing in further restrictions up here now in the coming week.

As long as I can visit my local I don’t give a shiny shite.

[Seymour M Hersh]

5 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Ferguson warned of 100,000k a day infections if the PM went ahead with 'freedom day' in July.

 

He backtracked a few weeks later when it was obvious that it wasn't happening 

 

Professor pants down is a ****ing charlatan and should be completely ignored. The twat is a mathematician fixated by computer modelling.  

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

In the future we could have multiple variants we can’t keep imposing restrictions lockdowns etc just get on with life folk will die of multiple different illnesses the world is overpopulated anyway. The number of deaths worldwide from Covid is minor compared with The Black Plague and even the Spanish flu all of this is of course IMO

 

But the baseline trick is to retain a functioning society with all the required institutions and services we need.  We can go to a future where it does become acceptable to have mass mortality,  etc.  Do we even have the infrastructure to deal with mass mortality over a relatively short period.  Or face tens or hundreds of thousands of hospitalisations?  Can we staff all of our key services and supply chains amid an era such as that?  The answer is definitely no.  No government is ever going to consign a society to a devil may care,  dystopian era.  A government has to retain the fabric of society that we're accustomed to otherwise anarchy becomes possible and it could happen so quick it would be astonishing.

[Shooter McGavin]

It seems like even with people in this country getting vaccinated en masse, this new variant dynamic could go on forever.

 

Ah well, house party anyone?

[Alex Kintner]

11 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Ferguson warned of 100,000k a day infections if the PM went ahead with 'freedom day' in July.

 

He backtracked a few weeks later when it was obvious that it wasn't happening 

Not sure if I’m following this correctly but if it was believed 1 in 65 people in England had Covid last week isn’t that about 900,000 which you then divide by seven days giving you about 130,000 a day?

[Japan Jambo]

6 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Professor pants down is a ****ing charlatan and should be completely ignored. The twat is a mathematician fixated by computer modelling.  

 

He's talking his own book to get more funding/attention/relevance. Below it though there is maths that is problematic. The r rate of omicron is much higher than delta, even a small breakthrough percentage is highly problematic to the NHS.

[Victorian]

I think the future direction will shift to much more cooperation regarding vaccine production.  That needs to be supercharged with vast investment and infrastructure.  Focus shifts to proper supply of poor and middle wealth countries.  Domestically we'll probably lurch on for a while yet with more of the same good times and bad times.  A couple of years or so.  Steadily the world gets vaccinated and hopefully gets fast access to continuing vaccinations.  Virus is steadily suppressed as the world builds up immunisation and it settles into a stable endemic state.

[Rocco_Jambo]

3 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

It seems like even with people in this country getting vaccinated en masse, this new variant dynamic could go on forever.

 

Ah well, house party anyone?

 

There's no reason to think the next few years will be any different.

 

New variant appears from country x every winter. Not enough data known. Must be cautious and introduce new restrictions whilst we speed up everybody receiving their 5th, 7th, 9th booster.

 

About 95% of those dying before the vaccine and after the vaccine are those with underlying conditions. At some point the responsibility will have to be placed on them to live their lives in a manner that puts them at least risk rather than having whole societys fall in line and be subject to the same restrictions.

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 minute ago, Japan Jambo said:

 

He's talking his own book to get more funding/attention/relevance. Below it though there is maths that is problematic. The r rate of omicron is much higher than delta, even a small breakthrough percentage is highly problematic to the NHS.

Only if Omicron is causing hospitalisations to go up. This isn't the case though according to the SA scientists. In fact, until UK involved, no one was especially interested in this variant and it was seen as positive in that it was milder.

UK involved and immediately it's panic stations, Ferguson predicting chaos, media leading panic and the government, Scottish and UK showing all signs of knee jerk reactions.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Only if Omicron is causing hospitalisations to go up. This isn't the case though according to the SA scientists. In fact, until UK involved, no one was especially interested in this variant and it was seen as positive in that it was milder.

UK involved and immediately it's panic stations, Ferguson predicting chaos, media leading panic and the government, Scottish and UK showing all signs of knee jerk reactions.

 

S.A. hospital presentation rose 300% over a week. 

[Taffin]

13 minutes ago, Alex Kintner said:

Not sure if I’m following this correctly but if it was believed 1 in 65 people in England had Covid last week isn’t that about 900,000 which you then divide by seven days giving you about 130,000 a day?

 

You're not. That would only be accurate if you started that week on zero...then yes you'd have averaged 130,000 cases per day. It was actually c.47,000 and hasn't been more 60,000 daily cases the entire year afaik.

 

 

Edit: 'Daily number of people tested positive reported on x date' is how the government have defined it.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Taffin

[Malinga the Swinga]

2 minutes ago, Victorian said:

I think the future direction will shift to much more cooperation regarding vaccine production.  That needs to be supercharged with vast investment and infrastructure.  Focus shifts to proper supply of poor and middle wealth countries.  Domestically we'll probably lurch on for a while yet with more of the same good times and bad times.  A couple of years or so.  Steadily the world gets vaccinated and hopefully gets fast access to continuing vaccinations.  Virus is steadily suppressed as the world builds up immunisation and it settles into a stable endemic state.

Which wasn't how vaccine program sold. I love how you casually drop in another couple of years of this, or maybe more.

It's causing business chaos, destroying young people's futures, all so people's grannies/granddad's or elderly parents can live another few months.

It's not acceptable and eventually the majority will get fed up with it.

[Japan Jambo]

1 minute ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Only if Omicron is causing hospitalisations to go up. This isn't the case though according to the SA scientists. In fact, until UK involved, no one was especially interested in this variant and it was seen as positive in that it was milder.

UK involved and immediately it's panic stations, Ferguson predicting chaos, media leading panic and the government, Scottish and UK showing all signs of knee jerk reactions.

 

To be fair that doesn't jive with the slide shown by Witty tonight though I would add he didn't clarify what the percentage of vaccinated/unvaccinated - very relevant imo as vaccination rates in RSA are at about 25%.

 

Not sure he'd have acted today if he wasn't deflecting tbh.

[Japan Jambo]

1 minute ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Which wasn't how vaccine program sold. I love how you casually drop in another couple of years of this, or maybe more.

It's causing business chaos, destroying young people's futures, all so people's grannies/granddad's or elderly parents can live another few months.

It's not acceptable and eventually the majority will get fed up with it.

 

struggled to get home tonight as there was a huge protest in Parliament Square, haven't seen reporting on it yet but can venture a guess as to what was behind it!!

[Malinga the Swinga]

3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

S.A. hospital presentation rose 300% over a week. 

And they have much smaller percentage vaccinated, which you know but choose to ignore. They also hadn't suffered to same extent from the Delta variant which we have.

Picking bits and pieces of data to suit agenda is what our scientists and media are doing.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Which wasn't how vaccine program sold. I love how you casually drop in another couple of years of this, or maybe more.

It's causing business chaos, destroying young people's futures, all so people's grannies/granddad's or elderly parents can live another few months.

It's not acceptable and eventually the majority will get fed up with it.

 

The landscape has changed mate.  It looks like they now accept that it wasn't possible to just vaccinate and move on.  The virus is fighting back you could say.

 

2 years is just a guess.  It's based on my belief about how and when we get around to supplying the world with vaccines.  We're badly under resourced in that regard,  plus there's insufficient cooperation to improve things.  It's a mere guess.  Maybe conditions will change in our favour and it will be sooner.

 

Regarding people being sick of it and businesses struggling.  Yes,  all true.  But what is the alternative?  Just give up on trying to manage and cope and let it run wild?  That's not going to help anyone.  Individual businesses or a whole economy.  It involves a tangible risk of the fabric of our comfortable,  1st world society being turned upside down.  There's no practical alternative to just lurching on for as long as it takes.

[Victorian]

5 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

And they have much smaller percentage vaccinated, which you know but choose to ignore. They also hadn't suffered to same extent from the Delta variant which we have.

Picking bits and pieces of data to suit agenda is what our scientists and media are doing.

 

Don't get Leeds United mate.  I'm not ignoring anything and I'm being respectful of you.

 

It's true,  we might see a better clinical picture here.  There are reasons to hope so.  We have no choice but to ride it out.

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

The landscape has changed mate.  It looks like they now accept that it wasn't possible to just vaccinate and move on.  The virus is fighting back you could say.

 

2 years is just a guess.  It's based on my belief about how and when we get around to supplying the world with vaccines.  We're badly under resourced in that regard,  plus there's insufficient cooperation to improve things.  It's a mere guess.  Maybe conditions will change in our favour and it will be sooner.

 

Regarding people being sick of it and businesses struggling.  Yes,  all true.  But what is the alternative?  Just give up on trying to manage and cope and let it run wild?  That's not going to help anyone.  Individual businesses or a whole economy.  It involves a tangible risk of the fabric of our comfortable,  1st world society being turned upside down.  There's no practical alternative to just lurching on for as long as it takes.

Tough decisions need to be made. I'll say it again, delaying cancer treatments, delaying operations, destroying education, destroying young people's dreams and hopes just so, primarily the very old squeeze a few more months of life out and we can all pretend we care about them. Let's sacrifice those with cancer in favour of those with Covid. Who agreed to that?

[Dennis Denuto]

1 minute ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Tough decisions need to be made. I'll say it again, delaying cancer treatments, delaying operations, destroying education, destroying young people's dreams and hopes just so, primarily the very old squeeze a few more months of life out and we can all pretend we care about them. Let's sacrifice those with cancer in favour of those with Covid. Who agreed to that?

Because some folk in England have to work from home? Calm down eh!

 

If the virus is less dangerous then we will no see anymore restrictions than we currently have. 

[Malinga the Swinga]

3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Don't get Leeds United mate.  I'm not ignoring anything and I'm being respectful of you.

 

It's true,  we might see a better clinical picture here.  There are reasons to hope so.  We have no choice but to ride it out.

Apologies for getting short. This whole shitshow highlighting just how poor our governments are and how they are totally out if depth. 

As someone who has three children tryyto make way in life, ages 18-25, it is incredibly frustrating how their needs and wishes are ignored in favour of those who have enjoyed life to full and now are so selfish that they would deny that opportunity to younger generation.

[Malinga the Swinga]

Just now, Dennis Denuto said:

Because some folk in England have to work from home? Calm down eh!

 

If the virus is less dangerous then we will no see anymore restrictions than we currently have. 

I'll be happy with that for while. Is the goal not for no restrictions though. 

[Footballfirst]

I certainly assumed that Ferguson was talking about reported daily cases rather than underlying numbers.

 

What he did say was that it was "almost inevitable" that cases would hit 100k a day within a few weeks of freedom day. He also predicted that UK hospitalisations would hit 1,000 per day.

 

His case forecast clearly failed to materialise, although Scotland's rate at the end of August / early September was equivalent to a UK daily rate of around 75k.  His forecast on hospitalisation numbers however was pretty accurate, with UK numbers exceeding 1,000 around the end of August / early September.

 

I've always had an interest in statistics and trends so, while I may take note of the "forecasts", I tend to rely more on "actuals", rather than make predictions about "known unknowns" such as Omicron.

 

Based on what I tracked previously, it looks as if it might become the dominant strain similar to how "Alpha" did for the original Wuhan strain a year ago, and again as Delta did for Alpha in the summer.  Alpha drove the peak hospitalisations and deaths that we saw at the start of 2021. However, this time round, the Omicron impact should be lessened with vaccines and treatments. I'd hope that Omicron cases just replace Delta cases with no, or lessened, health impacts. 

 

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Tough decisions need to be made. I'll say it again, delaying cancer treatments, delaying operations, destroying education, destroying young people's dreams and hopes just so, primarily the very old squeeze a few more months of life out and we can all pretend we care about them. Let's sacrifice those with cancer in favour of those with Covid. Who agreed to that?

 

All we've discussed is hypothetical but the risks are more tangible.  They have no choice but to plan early.  Be cautious.  It's all driven by what they know about this variant + the stuff they don't know.  If it wasn't planned and possibly mitigated for,  there would be hardly any non-covid care to provide if worst forecasts play out.  Believe me,  this is all partly to enable non covid care to happen at all.

[Ray Gin]

Let the virus run wild and free. That'll help the cancer patients.

[Dennis Denuto]

Just now, Malinga the Swinga said:

I'll be happy with that for while. Is the goal not for no restrictions though. 

Yes, and we will get there, hopefully this is variant that helps us get there soon. 
 

We just need to slow it down while we don’t know the answers 

[Victorian]

5 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Apologies for getting short. This whole shitshow highlighting just how poor our governments are and how they are totally out if depth. 

As someone who has three children tryyto make way in life, ages 18-25, it is incredibly frustrating how their needs and wishes are ignored in favour of those who have enjoyed life to full and now are so selfish that they would deny that opportunity to younger generation.

 

No worries.  We'll get through it bud.  It's just a matter of time.

[Taffin]

2 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Apologies for getting short. This whole shitshow highlighting just how poor our governments are and how they are totally out if depth. 

As someone who has three children tryyto make way in life, ages 18-25, it is incredibly frustrating how their needs and wishes are ignored in favour of those who have enjoyed life to full and now are so selfish that they would deny that opportunity to younger generation.

 

Seneca approves of this post.

 

[The Mighty Thor]

2 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

 

As someone who has three children tryyto make way in life, ages 18-25, it is incredibly frustrating how their needs and wishes are ignored in favour of those who have enjoyed life to full and now are so selfish that they would deny that opportunity to younger generation.

I don't think that's the case anymore. It was right back at the start when it was all about shielding the vulnerable.

Now it's all about breaking chains of transmission of a variant we know spreads very quickly. 

Every single person I know with Covid right now is under 50 and double jabbed. 

I've got boys in their 20s. Their life hasn't changed. They work, they play, they got jabbed, they follow the rules. 

 

[Malinga the Swinga]

2 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

Let the virus run wild and free. That'll help the cancer patients.

Delay cancer treatments and surgeries. That'll help the patients.

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

 

Seneca approves of this post.

 

Don't know who Seneca is?

[Ray Gin]

Just now, Malinga the Swinga said:

Delay cancer treatments and surgeries. That'll help the patients.

 

They won't make it through treatment with a virus running rampant.

[Taffin]

2 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Don't know who Seneca is?

 

A stoic philosopher. I wasn't being entirely serious but a general gist of his was around quality of life being more important than quantity of life.

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 minute ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I don't think that's the case anymore. It was right back at the start when it was all about shielding the vulnerable.

Now it's all about breaking chains of transmission of a variant we know spreads very quickly. 

Every single person I know with Covid right now is under 50 and double jabbed. 

I've got boys in their 20s. Their life hasn't changed. They work, they play, they got jabbed, they follow the rules. 

 

Almost all the youngish people I know are double vaccinated. Only one teenager, son of work colleague, refuses to have 2nd vaccination. Some pish about his heart rate increasing after first jab. Nothing wrong with him but he's believing that footballers/sportsmen have suffered after taking vaccine and internet nutters have convinced him it's related.

 

[Malinga the Swinga]

Just now, Taffin said:

 

A stoic philosopher. I wasn't being entirely serious but a general gist of his was around quality of life being more important than quantity of life.

Probably agree although they aren't entirely separate. A mixture of both us both possible and desirable.

[Victorian]

Spaffer mentioned a national conversation about what to do with the unvaccinated.  The 5m.  He framed it in terms of protecting them.  That means exclusion from lots of society.

 

If anyone wants to get involved in a national conversation,  lobby your elected representatives with a view to creating a nationwide movement to compel the government to lead the world on vaccine supplies for the world.  They're sitting on their hands,  as is the whole western world.  That's the big leap out of this.

[Malinga the Swinga]

4 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

They won't make it through treatment with a virus running rampant.

They won't make treatment if they die waiting for virus to be eradicated.

[Taffin]

1 minute ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Probably agree although they aren't entirely separate. A mixture of both us both possible and desirable.

 

Agreed 👍👍

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

Spaffer mentioned a national conversation about what to do with the unvaccinated.  The 5m.  He framed it in terms of protecting them.  That means exclusion from lots of society.

 

If anyone wants to get involved in a national conversation,  lobby your elected representatives with a view to creating a nationwide movement to compel the government to lead the world on vaccine supplies for the world.  They're sitting on their hands,  as is the whole western world.  That's the big leap out of this.

Not just Western world. Russia and China could do more. The rest of world also needs to take whatever vaccine offered as well instead of demanding whatever one is in vogue.

Places like India need to get arse in gear as well. 

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Not just Western world. Russia and China could do more. The rest of world also needs to take whatever vaccine offered as well instead of demanding whatever one is in vogue.

Places like India need to get arse in gear as well. 

 

It's ironic because we used to rely on India for our vaccines to a large degree.  The Russian and Chinese vaccines appear to be low performing.  But it's all going to take a huge amount of cooperation of the willing.  Political and big pharma.  

 

This is the pandemic of the modern world with it's unsustainable population.  Historic pandemics didn't involve such a population + interconnectivity.  It's also brutally laid bare just how fragile our societies are to the jeopardy of a breakdown of vital services,  supply chains and healthcare provision.  That's why lockdowns were necessary.  All the things we take for granted can very quickly grind to a halt because of unsustainable levels of virus circulating.  What a massive wake up call we've had.

 

 

[Alex Kintner]

58 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

You're not. That would only be accurate if you started that week on zero...then yes you'd have averaged 130,000 cases per day. It was actually c.47,000 and hasn't been more 60,000 daily cases the entire year afaik.

 

 

Edit: 'Daily number of people tested positive reported on x date' is how the government have defined it.

Cheers, wasn’t sure how it worked 👍🏻

[Malinga the Swinga]

11 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

It's ironic because we used to rely on India for our vaccines to a large degree.  The Russian and Chinese vaccines appear to be low performing.  But it's all going to take a huge amount of cooperation of the willing.  Political and big pharma.  

 

This is the pandemic of the modern world with it's unsustainable population.  Historic pandemics didn't involve such a population + interconnectivity.  It's also brutally laid bare just how fragile our societies are to the jeopardy of a breakdown of vital services,  supply chains and healthcare provision.  That's why lockdowns were necessary.  All the things we take for granted can very quickly grind to a halt because of unsustainable levels of virus circulating.  What a massive wake up call we've had.

 

 

Well, some of us have had wake up. The wealthy and elite have seen lives continue almost unchanged and the feckless have done likewise.

Those in middle have been held to account.

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Well, some of us have had wake up. The wealthy and elite have seen lives continue almost unchanged and the feckless have done likewise.

Those in middle have been held to account.

 

Yeah,  all true to a large extent.  But the wealthy,  elite and powerful had better heed the warning.  Their privileged lives will come crashing down to dust if we got a fundamentally more serious and impossible to manage pandemic.   They should all be in the vanguard of forcing governments to prevent a repeat shitshow.

 

The feckless will never do a thing to help anyone.

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Depends if it's Wrigley's or not.

Predictive text can be amusing . I’m on my phone as my laptop packed in yesterday . Only had it two months . Must be all that angry typing on thx key boards !😂

1 hour ago, Rocco_Jambo said:

 

There's no reason to think the next few years will be any different.

 

New variant appears from country x every winter. Not enough data known. Must be cautious and introduce new restrictions whilst we speed up everybody receiving their 5th, 7th, 9th booster.

 

About 95% of those dying before the vaccine and after the vaccine are those with underlying conditions. At some point the responsibility will have to be placed on them to live their lives in a manner that puts them at least risk rather than having whole societys fall in line and be subject to the same restrictions.

Agree completely 

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

It's all academic now anyway.  It goes where it goes.  If things proceed much better than the worst case then great.  We look forward to spring and summer.  

Spring ,? Summer ? 2023 ,2924. ? 2925 ? 

[Taffin]

8 minutes ago, Alex Kintner said:

Cheers, wasn’t sure how it worked 👍🏻

 

No worries, I personally see daily cases as a bit of a fallacy, as of course there must be thousands who have the virus but no symptoms and as such would never think to get a test. Is that really Covid though or just the virus?!? I've no idea...but I'm 99% certain Ferguson was talking about confirmed cases due to his usage of the phrase daily cases.

[Victorian]

Just now, JamesM48 said:

Predictive text can be amusing . I’m on my phone as my laptop packed in yesterday . Only had it two months . Must be all that angry typing on thx key boards !😂

Agree completely 

Spring ,? Summer ? 2023 ,2924. ? 2925 ? 

 

Whenever James.  Humans are not in control until we force control.  If we don't force the issue,  the virus controls us until it naturally abates.

[Taffin]

3 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Predictive text can be amusing . I’m on my phone as my laptop packed in yesterday . Only had it two months . Must be all that angry typing on thx key boards !😂

Agree completely 

Spring ,? Summer ? 2023 ,2924. ? 2925 ? 

 

"You act like mortals in all that you fear, and like immortals in all that you desire"

 

[Malinga the Swinga]

Only place I want to see anymore lockdowns is .Net.

Another one tonight I believe.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Malinga the Swinga

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

 

Whenever James.  Humans are not in control until we force control.  If we don't force the issue,  the virus controls us until it naturally abates.

👍