Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[frankblack]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

Spanish government sticking the boot in re their potential agreement to the agreement.    Claiming they have been taken by surprise over Gibraltar arrangements.    Lol.

 

That isn't going to sit well with the other 26 who have said that there can be no further negotiations.  They could open up the case for the hard line Brexiteers to demand renegotiation on their terms.

[Victorian]

Norman Tebbit.     "Mrs May,  you're no Mrs Thatcher".

 

Where does one begin to deal with such a thing?

 

 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

40 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

That isn't going to sit well with the other 26 who have said that there can be no further negotiations.  They could open up the case for the hard line Brexiteers to demand renegotiation on their terms.

 

Was saying on the news that it puts the EU in a very tricky position, because they have spent the last few days telling the UK it's a 'take it or leave it' deal and that there can be no renegotiation of the deal.

 

Now the EU have to tell the Spanish the same, which won't go down well in Madrid.

 

It's a bit ironic don't you think, that this deal could well get vetoed in Brussels by the Spanish, meaning that it could be dead in the water long before the British parliament got the chance to kick it out.

 

The thing is, there was the potential for Spain to start kicking off about Gibraltar, things have been too quiet lately on that front.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Surprised nobody has mentioned that Michel Barnier has suggested that the transition deal could be extended an extra two years to December 2022.

https://www.ft.com/content/91127120-eb4f-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57

 

Talk about adding petrol to the fire!

 

[Don Dan]

17 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Was saying on the news that it puts the EU in a very tricky position, because they have spent the last few days telling the UK it's a 'take it or leave it' deal and that there can be no renegotiation of the deal.

 

Now the EU have to tell the Spanish the same, which won't go down well in Madrid.

 

It's a bit ironic don't you think, that this deal could well get vetoed in Brussels by the Spanish, meaning that it could be dead in the water long before the British parliament got the chance to kick it out.

 

The thing is, there was the potential for Spain to start kicking off about Gibraltar, things have been too quiet lately on that front.

 

I wonder if some people in the higher echelons of the  Spanish government did a Jeremy Corbyn and never read ALL the 585 pages ? that’s until the cleaner said hey have you seen this bit about Gibraltar!! 

Edited November 19, 2018 by Dannie Boy

[Jambo-Jimbo]

6 minutes ago, Dannie Boy said:

 

I wonder if some people in the higher echelons of the  Spanish government did a Jeremy Corbyn and never read ALL the 585 pages ? that’s until the cleaner said hey have you seen this bit about Gibraltar!! 

 

..........................Meanwhile in Nicosia, Cypriot officials will be scouring through the document to see what it says about Akrotiri & Dhekelia.

[doctor jambo]

5 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

According to the BBC this morning immigration will be skills based and the EU won't have priority over the likes of Australia or Asia.

 

Mind you I don't know what to believe any more.

That will please a lot of the leavers

Replace white, Christian European workers with black, Asian Muslims

Not sure that is what they voted for

But I will find it pant-wettingly hilarious

[frankblack]

Just now, doctor jambo said:

That will please a lot of the leavers

Replace white, Christian European workers with black, Asian Muslims

Not sure that is what they voted for

But I will find it pant-wettingly hilarious

 

No - you misunderstand what skills based immigration is.  See Australia for an example.

 

Employers would need to make a case for hiring people that they can't source locally.

[doctor jambo]

6 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

No - you misunderstand what skills based immigration is.  See Australia for an example.

 

Employers would need to make a case for hiring people that they can't source locally.

Europeans will NOT get priority though

so companies are as entitled to recruit from Nigeria as Poland

Afghanistan as Lithuania

 

 

[frankblack]

3 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Europeans will NOT get priority though

so companies are as entitled to recruit from Nigeria as Poland

Afghanistan as Lithuania

 

 

 

Or Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other Commonwealth countries with good English.

 

Are you saying all Leave voters are racists again?

Edited November 19, 2018 by frankblack

[Martin_T]

10 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Or Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other Commonwealth countries with good English.

 

Are you saying all Leave voters are racists again?

 

Being pragmatic again, what are the hospitality and agricultural sectors supposed to do to fill the thousands of unskilled jobs where the local labour isn't currently available?

 

The EU migrants have been an absolute godsend to these sectors, are we seriously suggesting that there is enough ANZ workers available? Or that workers from sub Saharan Africa will be permissible?

[frankblack]

Just now, Martin_T said:

 

Being pragmatic again, what are the hospitality and agricultural sectors supposed to do to fill the thousands of unskilled jobs where the local labour isn't currently available?

 

The EU migrants have been an absolute godsend to these sectors, are we seriously suggesting that there is enough ANZ workers available? Or that workers from sub Saharan Africa will be permissible?

 

They can apply for workers through the government and there will be a quota that gets filled.

[Don Dan]

Sky now reporting more chinks in the EU armour as other countries (not named yet) have indicated they are not happy with some aspects of the Withdrawal Agreement. Back to the drawing board? It may also explain why Barnier hinted at an extension today.

[Thunderstruck]

2 minutes ago, Dannie Boy said:

Sky now reporting more chinks in the EU armour as other countries (not named yet) have indicated they are not happy with some aspects of the Withdrawal Agreement. Back to the drawing board? It may also explain why Barnier hinted at an extension today.

 

I thought he had talked of an extension a couple of days ago but, keeping in character, France had said, ‘non.’

[Don Dan]

7 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

I thought he had talked of an extension a couple of days ago but, keeping in character, France had said, ‘non.’

 

First reported 24 hours ago I think. However we’d have to keep paying during that period but not allowed any input ino anything. 

Just when you think there’s progress something else pops up. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

Norman Tebbit.     "Mrs May,  you're no Mrs Thatcher".

 

Where does one begin to deal with such a thing?

 

 

 

 

One only has to agree with the accuracy of the statement. More Agnes Mersman Thatcher than Margaret. 

[Joey J J Jr Shabadoo]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

Norman Tebbit.     "Mrs May,  you're no Mrs Thatcher".

 

Where does one begin to deal with such a thing?

 

 

 

And tebbitt is no mountbatten. 

[doctor jambo]

54 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Or Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other Commonwealth countries with good English.

 

Are you saying all Leave voters are racists again?

Problem is those countries have higher wages and better conditions than us, it's why our NHS staff go there.

those ain't the people we will be getting

[Victorian]

Barnier spoke about the transition period end date being extended.    EU countries unhappy with the withdrawal agreement would jeopardise the entire agreement and transition period.      It's an extension to the deadline to agree a withdrawal agreement we need.

[frankblack]

9 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Problem is those countries have higher wages and better conditions than us, it's why our NHS staff go there.

those ain't the people we will be getting

 

I think you will find that a lot of the NHS staff currently come from those countries due to the wages.  In any case if there is a skills shortage then it becomes an equal choice between EU and the rest of the world.

 

Do you hae a problem with us appointing the best people for the job based on their skills and experience and funds available?

 

What we don't particularly need are office staff if we can fill those posts already.

Edited November 19, 2018 by frankblack

[Victorian]

May suddenly telling everyone to ignore the politicians and start listening to what big business says from the lectern of the CBI conference is a stunning coincidence.      I wonder if this surprise new instruction will apply only to what she says in the company of big business and pro-deal individual businesses,    or if it also applies to the many anti-deal individual businesses who have voiced concerns.

[Victorian]

In other news,    it's looking increasingly likely that the ERG and hangers-on have succeeded in shiteing the cot and resultantly bolstering the PM's strategic position.      

[frankblack]

15 minutes ago, Victorian said:

In other news,    it's looking increasingly likely that the ERG and hangers-on have succeeded in shiteing the cot and resultantly bolstering the PM's strategic position.      

 

I think they realise they are one step away from triggering a general election that will put them out of office,

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

I think they realise they are one step away from triggering a general election that will put them out of office,

 

Speaking of which,    there is an estimated group in the parliamentary group,  larger than the ERG,  who are forecast to vote for this deal,  simply in order to prevent that very thing.     

[Number28]

On 17/11/2018 at 08:04, ri Alban said:

MPs will need to vote on their constituency desires. Well Scotland will have to leave the UK. 

You responded to my post as above. Scotland leaving the UK is not an option at this point. It is not an option within the negotiation for the UK to leave the EU!

However you have by default made my point for me?

As most constituencies in Scotland voted to remain then I would expect the MP's for those constituencies to vote against the bill!

Logically therefore, I would expect those MP's representing leave constituencies ( the vast majority) to do as their constituents demanded and vote to leave and get their voters out of Europe as they have demanded.

[Ulysses]

11 hours ago, Statts1976uk said:

 

I’m sorry but I just can’t believe that the EU isn’t too perturbed by a dramatic loss in contributions. When several countries have expressed concerns that they may be liable for increased contributions, the German version of the CBI is very concerned about the impact of Brexit etc then that makes me think that neither side will do well out of this.

 

 

 

So what?  All that statement does is demonstrate the point I made about people believing what their Anglo-centric perspective lets them believe.

 

Regardless of what any of us personally can or can't believe, the EU 27 has repeatedly pointed out that Brexit will cause economic losses for the UK and for the EU 27, and repeatedly said that the negotiations on a withdrawal agreement and on the future relationship between the EU and the UK are an exercise in damage limitation.

 

The 585 pages of the withdrawal agreement are nothing more and nothing less than that.  To make the kind of concessions to the UK that the UK has asked for would do the EU significantly more harm than good.  Germany knows that, the rest of us know that, so we're taking the least bad option.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Statts1976uk said:

 

My last statement is one that a lot of remainders brush off, the very notion that the EU isn’t perfect and willing to bend its own rules is one that appears to be merely “Brexit propaganda” but the Airbus/Ukraine deal is merely an example of it. The admittance of some of the PIGS level of countries to the Euro were also against their own rules but if it kept the project together then who cares.

 

 

So what?  That's an argument for leaving.  You're leaving.  That's that problem solved.  What are our negotiators supposed to do?  Say thanks for hating the way we are and invite the UK to ride us sideways as well?

 

 

11 hours ago, Statts1976uk said:

 

May I ask what you want from Europe, how far do you want integration to go? Are you like me that was happy with the trading bloc or do you go further to the other extreme and support the concept of a European superstate or are you somewhere in the middle?

 

 

I want the United Kingdom to leave, and I want the rest of the European Union to strike the best (and least damaging) deal it can in making that happen.  So far, I am satisfied that our negotiating team has done a solid job in protecting our interests, and that's good enough for me at this point.

 

The rest of your question isn't relevant to the thread.  The UK has had its campaign, had its debate and got its result, and the opinions of people like me won't alter that.

 

[Ulysses]

9 hours ago, Dannie Boy said:

 

It would be helpful but unlikely. 

Re the withdrawal deal the backstop is the stumbling block, remove the EU veto and lock-in then it will be accepted much more palatable. 

 

Since before the referendum, British Cabinet members have recognised that the nature of the border on this island needs to be addressed, and have also said that there were a variety of ways of addressing it.  The EU and the Irish government have asked the UK to give details of those ways.  They are still waiting on those details.  The purpose of the backstop is to say that if the UK can't deliver the methods it is so confident of delivering, a legal framework will stay in being to prevent a hard border.

 

But the UK is completely confident that the backstop won't be needed at all, because it has solutions to the problems.  The British government has said this time and time and time again.  Therefore the backstop won't possibly be needed.  So what's the problem?

 

[Ulysses]

8 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

According to the BBC this morning immigration will be skills based and the EU won't have priority over the likes of Australia or Asia.

 

Mind you I don't know what to believe any more.

 

The withdrawal agreement does, as far as I can tell, give the UK government more freedom to determine if people from the EU 27 get in or not, but once they've lived and worked in the UK for a period of years they can get permanent residency (this is for people who enter the UK after the transition period).  The same applies in the case of UK citizens residing in EU 27 countries.  Have a look in particular at Article 15 of the draft agreement.

 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf

[jake]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ulysses]

8 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

We buy £95billion worth of goods and service from the rest of the EU annually. Do you really think Brussells wants the UK to go off and negotiate free trade deals elsewhere? Cutting tariffs that would undercut goods made in the EU?

 

Your patronising "few quid" comment sums up how you've posted throughout the lifetime of this thread. 

 

And if you want patronising your own country will sink back into EU anonymity once the UK leave as Brussels will have no further use for you as leverage.

 

 

 

I think you'll find that the UK buys a lot more than £95 billion worth of goods and services from the EU 27. 

 

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

 

If you're going to make the effort to be patronising, you should also make the effort to be correct, as that will give your patronising comments some impact.

 

 

My "few quid" comment was in response to the notion that the EU 27's stance on the negotiations would be based on the loss of a 10 billion euro contribution in the EU Budget, rather than the risks to the 2 trillion euro plus of trade that depends on the EU's customs union and single market.  I am well aware that €10 billion euro isn't a "few quid", just as you are well aware that it is less - one hell of a lot less - than €2,000 billion. 

 

As to your last comment, we make up 1% of the EU and the sooner we can go back to the anonymity we've had for the last 45 years the better.

[Ulysses]

8 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Big mental Great Britain. Aye right, it's a no mark wee nyaff now and will be even more irrelevant after, especially when the Great votes for independence. 

 

No need.  The EU 27 is well aware that losing the UK's membership will cause damage on both sides, and that is to be regretted.  All we're doing now is limiting the damage.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

Quite interesting that this supposed vote of no confidence in May hasn't come to pass yet. Suggests a few things:

 

1) There isn't an overwhelming tide against her in the Tory party

2) While countless people are moaning about her Brexit deal, they might be starting to privately wonder if accepting it is the lesser of two (or a few) evils.

3) No-one wants the responsibility of actually having to take this shambles on.

 

One way or another, if they don't reach the 48 letter threshold by the end of this week then you can't see a challenge materialising. The iron was hot a few days ago and it feels like a major bottle job, especially given how exposed May is.

 

Given that Corbyn has no spine or conviction, could May sneak her majority after all?

[jake]

4 hours ago, doctor jambo said:

That will please a lot of the leavers

Replace white, Christian European workers with black, Asian Muslims

Not sure that is what they voted for

But I will find it pant-wettingly hilarious

Are all EU citizens white Christians?

 

I find the race card being played by remainers amusing not quite the pant wetting that you are into .

 

Hopefully if successful our immigration is based on merit.

Not skin colour or religion.

 

Also leaves more room for actual asylum seekers.

 

 

Hope this answers your question on one leavers views.

[Victorian]

7 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Quite interesting that this supposed vote of no confidence in May hasn't come to pass yet. Suggests a few things:

 

1) There isn't an overwhelming tide against her in the Tory party

2) While countless people are moaning about her Brexit deal, they might be starting to privately wonder if accepting it is the lesser of two (or a few) evils.

3) No-one wants the responsibility of actually having to take this shambles on.

 

One way or another, if they don't reach the 48 letter threshold by the end of this week then you can't see a challenge materialising. The iron was hot a few days ago and it feels like a major bottle job, especially given how exposed May is.

 

Given that Corbyn has no spine or conviction, could May sneak her majority after all?

 

Yes the ERG has shat it.    Some have been telling wee fibs about having submitted their letters.    It's not and never really has been a united group.    Like many and most Tories,   they are essentially scheming,  self serving scumbags.    

 

No,   there is currently no prospect whatsoever of the deal being voted through the commons.    Most Labour MPs will vote it down.     There will be no whipped abstain strategy.

[...a bit disco]

Chuka Umunna‏Verified account @ChukaUmunna 29m29 minutes ago

BREAKING: Treasury Minister, Robert Jenrick, has just conceded that Govt will publish an economic impact assessment which will compare the terms of our EU membership now with the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (leading to an FTA) and ‘no deal’(WTO terms) before the meaningful vote

[Ulysses]

One wonders if the noises being made by the French and the Spanish (more reported in the British media than in their domestic media) aren't being orchestrated just a tad?  Possibly not, but you never know.

 

Meanwhile, the Daily Express (link behind a paywall, sorry) says that it was the UK, not the EU, who sought to include a customs union as the way to deal with the backstop issue.

 

And also, the EU Ombudsman has called for the European Commission to publish a document which maps and sets out all the areas of North-South co-operation under the Good Friday Agreement that are at risk because of Brexit.  The Irish Government has responded by saying that responsibility for publishing the document lies jointly with the EU and the UK.

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1119/1011801-brexit-northern-ireland/

[jake]

8 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Big mental Great Britain. Aye right, it's a no mark wee nyaff now and will be even more irrelevant after, especially when the Great votes for independence. 

 

Text book arguments used by anti Indy propaganda.

What a wallpaper you really are Aussie

[Statts1976uk]

1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

So what?  All that statement does is demonstrate the point I made about people believing what their Anglo-centric perspective lets them believe.

 

Regardless of what any of us personally can or can't believe, the EU 27 has repeatedly pointed out that Brexit will cause economic losses for the UK and for the EU 27, and repeatedly said that the negotiations on a withdrawal agreement and on the future relationship between the EU and the UK are an exercise in damage limitation.

 

The 585 pages of the withdrawal agreement are nothing more and nothing less than that.  To make the kind of concessions to the UK that the UK has asked for would do the EU significantly more harm than good.  Germany knows that, the rest of us know that, so we're taking the least bad option.

 

 

 

 

So what?  That's an argument for leaving.  You're leaving.  That's that problem solved.  What are our negotiators supposed to do?  Say thanks for hating the way we are and invite the UK to ride us sideways as well?

 

 

 

I want the United Kingdom to leave, and I want the rest of the European Union to strike the best (and least damaging) deal it can in making that happen.  So far, I am satisfied that our negotiating team has done a solid job in protecting our interests, and that's good enough for me at this point.

 

The rest of your question isn't relevant to the thread.  The UK has had its campaign, had its debate and got its result, and the opinions of people like me won't alter that.

 

 

The question may be irrelevant to the threat but I would like to know what your position is on Europe regardless of the current vote or deal on the table. How far do you want to be in Europe if you could have your wish?

 

[jake]

5 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

One wonders if the noises being made by the French and the Spanish (more reported in the British media than in their domestic media) aren't being orchestrated just a tad?  Possibly not, but you never know.

 

Meanwhile, the Daily Express (link behind a paywall, sorry) says that it was the UK, not the EU, who sought to include a customs union as the way to deal with the backstop issue.

 

And also, the EU Ombudsman has called for the European Commission to publish a document which maps and sets out all the areas of North-South co-operation under the Good Friday Agreement that are at risk because of Brexit.  The Irish Government has responded by saying that responsibility for publishing the document lies jointly with the EU and the UK.

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1119/1011801-brexit-northern-ireland/

 

9 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

One wonders if the noises being made by the French and the Spanish (more reported in the British media than in their domestic media) aren't being orchestrated just a tad?  Possibly not, but you never know.

 

Meanwhile, the Daily Express (link behind a paywall, sorry) says that it was the UK, not the EU, who sought to include a customs union as the way to deal with the backstop issue.

 

And also, the EU Ombudsman has called for the European Commission to publish a document which maps and sets out all the areas of North-South co-operation under the Good Friday Agreement that are at risk because of Brexit.  The Irish Government has responded by saying that responsibility for publishing the document lies jointly with the EU and the UK.

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1119/1011801-brexit-northern-ireland/

Orchestrated by who?

 

 

[Ulysses]

3 minutes ago, Statts1976uk said:

 

The question may be irrelevant to the threat but I would like to know what your position is on Europe regardless of the current vote or deal on the table.

 

 

Why?  All the question does is to take the thread off topic.  In any case, the answer only serves to fuel a debate one way or the other on the Brexit campaign, which wasn't my campaign.  And in order to answer the question as you have asked it I'd have to be British, which I'm not.

 

By the way, did you find that link to the paper you mentioned by Erasmus University Rotterdam?

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, jake said:

 

Orchestrated by who?

 

 

 

Who knows for sure? 

 

Brussels?

 

Downing Street?  

 

It seems to be convenient timing that one or two EU 27 members would start to clear their throats and say "er, ahem" just at the point where the deal is in front of people, media and parliamentarians in the UK to consider.  That could be a useful way of reminding the British political system that any attempt to re-open the deal cuts both ways.  So a sceptical person would have to ask who - just at the moment - has most to gain from those kind of noises being made on the Continent.

 

Put it another way, the text of the draft agreement is not a surprise to Spain.  The Spanish, like everyone else, have been kept up to date on the content of the main document - and they were directly involved on the EU side in talks with the UK on the text of the Gibraltar Protocol.

[Statts1976uk]

4 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Why?  All the question does is to take the thread off topic.  In any case, the answer only serves to fuel a debate one way or the other on the Brexit campaign, which wasn't my campaign.  And in order to answer the question as you have asked it I'd have to be British, which I'm not.

 

By the way, did you find that link to the paper you mentioned by Erasmus University Rotterdam?

 

Yes I did, you’ll find it in Papers of Regional Science, Volume 97 Issue 1 where it has been peer reviewed.

 

I am just interested in where you get your viewpoint as you seem to get very defensive when someone mentions something that is not perfect within the EU. I don’t think it is derailing the discussion as it’s always useful to know where someone’s position is.

[jake]

Just now, Ulysses said:

 

Who knows for sure? 

 

Brussels?

 

Downing Street?  

 

It seems to be convenient timing that one or two EU 27 members would start to clear their throats and say "er, ahem" just at the point where the deal is in front of people, media and parliamentarians in the UK to consider.  That could be a useful way of reminding the British political system that any attempt to re-open the deal cuts both ways.  So a sceptical person would have to ask who - just at the moment - has most to gain from those kind of noises being made on the Continent.

 

Put it another way, the text of the draft agreement is not a surprise to Spain.  The Spanish, like everyone else, have been kept up to date on the content of the main document - and they were directly involved on the EU side in talks with the UK on the text of the Gibraltar Protocol.

You have left more questions than answers there.

Can we not just blame the EU.

 

I'm in that kind of mood.

?

[...a bit disco]

No confidence therefore no supply!

 

Forget for a moment the "will they, won't they" numbers game.

 

Unless and until the head honcho of the Tories' backbench committee receives 48 letters there won't be a vote of no confidence in the prime minister.

 

As far as we know tonight the total has not yet been reached.

 

One of those who has submitted their letter told me in no uncertain terms "where are the others?" - frustrated that many of his colleagues seem to have promised to be part of the action, but reinforcements are yet to arrive.

 

If and when that threat can more clearly be seen to have retreated, there's a lot to be said about the true power of backbench Brexiteers. But as of the time of writing we are not there yet and who knows, in a matter of hours, the putsch could suddenly be back on.

Something very worrying however for Number 10 has just happened for real, more important in this moment than the potential threat from their own backbenches.

 

The DUP, crucial to Theresa May holding on to power, has just abstained in votes on the finance bill. In other words, they decided not to back the prime minister on the Budget.

 

Why? We know that the DUP is furious about the compromises that Number 10 has made to get their draft deal with the EU.

And they want to show, loudly and clearly, that they are not on board.

 

A senior DUP source has just told me tonight's votes were deliberately designed to "send a message to Theresa May that if she wants to continue down the road of the withdrawal agreement and its effect on the Union then there will be repercussions in the Commons".

 

"She could be leading them to a very bad place," they continued. "Tory MPs need to realise that their jobs, their majorities, their careers depend on a good working relationship with the DUP and May doesn't appear to be listening."

 

Ouch. The DUP says this is not the end of the arrangement of so called "confidence and supply" agreement, where the government can formally rely on support from the Northern Irish unionists' 10 votes.

 

But the fabric of that arrangement is certainly torn... And once faith is broken between the two, it's hard to see how it could be restored.

Remember, there's a really straightforward reason why this matters so much. Theresa May does not have enough votes on her own to pass the Brexit deal.

 

The partnership with the DUP was set up to try to make sure she could. If it collapses completely then her central task becomes yet more seemingly impossible, even if those 48 letters never come.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46269755?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter

[Ulysses]

7 minutes ago, jake said:

You have left more questions than answers there.

Can we not just blame the EU.

 

I'm in that kind of mood.

?

 

 

You could be right.  You can see how it might suit the EU 27's negotiating team to ask a member country or two to do a bit of growling, just for effect.  Equally, you can see how that might play into the PM's agenda.

 

Or maybe the French and the Spanish are just being irritable and I'm just reading too much into it.

[Victorian]

As mentioned on the news,   the French and Spanish administrations are both toiling in the popularity polls and could just as easily be sabre rattling in regard to domestic interest issues that may yield a bit of popularity capital.

 

The UK exerting a bit of back channeling influence did cross my mind but it seems far fetched.   

[jake]

15 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

You could be right.  You can see how it might suit the EU 27's negotiating team to ask a member country or two to do a bit of growling, just for effect.  Equally, you can see how that might play into the PM's agenda.

 

Or maybe the French and the Spanish are just being irritable and I'm just reading too much into it.

Don't think you Are reading too much into it .

 

In many ways whether you are for or against brexit it has shook the whole thing up.

That's a good thing imo.

[Francis Albert]

5 hours ago, doctor jambo said:

That will please a lot of the leavers

Replace white, Christian European workers with black, Asian Muslims

Not sure that is what they voted for

But I will find it pant-wettingly hilarious

Over 30% of "ethnic" British voters (I think these are mainly what the Remainers refer to insultingly as "brown people") voted to Leave. And probably swung it for Leave. 

 

That is probably too difficult for the "leave voters are all thick racists" camp to grasp.

 

[Unknown user]

On 18/11/2018 at 22:41, Statts1976uk said:

 

I think if you do read some of the  academic papers,and there is a particularly good one from the Erasmus University Rotterdam ,and from other sources such as the LSE they’ll disagree with you. They are suggesting a much bigger issue affecting the remaining countries with Germany in particular being hit.

 

Etc etc

 

2 hours ago, Statts1976uk said:

 

Yes I did, you’ll find it in Papers of Regional Science, Volume 97 Issue 1 where it has been peer reviewed.

 

I am just interested in where you get your viewpoint as you seem to get very defensive when someone mentions something that is not perfect within the EU. I don’t think it is derailing the discussion as it’s always useful to know where someone’s position is.

 

I've found one article in that issue attributed to guys from Erasmus, Rotterdam.

 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pirs.12334

 

To quote their abstract;

"Our findings demonstrate that UK regions are far more exposed than regions in other countries. Only regions in the Republic of Ireland face exposure levels similar to some UK regions, while the next most affected regions are in Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium and France. This imbalance may influence the outcomes of the negotiations between the UK and the EU."

 

Isn't it rather saying that the uk and ROI face much more exposure then everyone else and that it concludes there's an imbalance because the UK faces more risk?

Unless there's another article from Erasmus Rotterdam in Issue 97, Volume 1 that I couldn't find?

[Statts1976uk]

5 hours ago, Smithee said:

 

Etc etc

 

 

I've found one article in that issue attributed to guys from Erasmus, Rotterdam.

 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pirs.12334

 

To quote their abstract;

"Our findings demonstrate that UK regions are far more exposed than regions in other countries. Only regions in the Republic of Ireland face exposure levels similar to some UK regions, while the next most affected regions are in Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium and France. This imbalance may influence the outcomes of the negotiations between the UK and the EU."

 

Isn't it rather saying that the uk and ROI face much more exposure then everyone else and that it concludes there's an imbalance because the UK faces more risk?

Unless there's another article from Erasmus Rotterdam in Issue 97, Volume 1 that I couldn't find?

 

Thats the one but it does state the European states particularly the Southern German areas are very susceptible to the risk of exposure to Brexit which was the point I was getting at. I was trying to say that Germany will be affected by Brexit as it’s the major manufacturing country in Europe and we are one of their major trading partners.