Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[The Mighty Thor]

4 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

There seems to be an underlying in a lot of the discussion that free trade, particularly of course in the context of Brexit, free trade within the EU cartel, is good and the more of it there is the better.

I suspect the 20% unemployed and 40% youth unemployed in Southern Europe may differ, as they see their economies distorted by the combination of over-valuation of their currency and undervaluation of  the currency of richer Northern European nations and "frictionless" trade. As Italy is finding economic action within Italy to address its problems is severely curtailed by EU diktat.

And of course in the UK frictionless trade contributed to the destruction of most of UK manufacturing industry, leaving us with a financial services and London-focussed economy with our own extremes of regional prosperity. The Labour leadership's lack of enthusiasm for Remain has I think quite a bit to do with the likely restrictions membership of the EU places on any serious reconstruction of the UK economy following its Thatcherite and Blairite transformation.

As for the wider world the EU cartel is of course bad news for poorer (and to use the distasteful Remainer term) browner countries trying to trade with the wealthy (some more than others but all relatively wealthy) and whiter countries of Europe. One of the WTO aims is to promote trade for the benefit of poorer nations (although I am unclear why individual members can create a cartel that subverts the most favoured nation rule that applies to individual nations and that cartel can also become a member of the WTO).  

And since of course Brexit would also permit a more open immigration policy benefiting the "poorer and browner" people of the world.

It seems to me the true internationalist and progressive position is to G theF out, even if it means some short term pain.

We've got a service economy predominately based around finance. That is easily transportable and is in fact already being made ready to meet 29/3 with Frankfurt, Paris & Dublin benefiting from the carnage. The rest under WTO rules? Woop! We've won a watch. 

Getting the F out with F all seems like a genius plan to me. 

[Victorian]

Looks like May's tactic to slip the withdrawal agreement through via a steady drip of no deal / no brexit threats and an encouraging (lol) vista of the future relationship political declaration is not showing any immediate signs of success.    The same people are still tearing the arse out of it.     Not enough Labour will back it.   Some Tories wont.   DUP wont.   SNP wont.    Libdems wont.

[...a bit disco]

Not getting a lot of support here.

 

Shame that. Can't think why.

[...a bit disco]

Michael Russell‏Verified account @Feorlean 4m4 minutes ago

Michael Russell Retweeted Sabine Weyand

Deputy to Barnier confirms link in political declaration between access to waters and market access, as in black and white in the Political Declaration. May says the opposite in the Commons, leaving her open to a charge of misleading Parliament I would have thought....

[Francis Albert]

57 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

We've got a service economy predominately based around finance. That is easily transportable and is in fact already being made ready to meet 29/3 with Frankfurt, Paris & Dublin benefiting from the carnage. The rest under WTO rules? Woop! We've won a watch. 

Getting the F out with F all seems like a genius plan to me. 

Quite. Our economy is dangerously over dependent on a sector easily transportable (though not in the four month or even two year timescale you envisage ) and as we have seen highly vulnerable to shocks, crises and hugely costly collapses for which taxpayers and the public, not the players involved, pay the price, and is also exposed to technological change. Having fewer eggs in that basket is probably not a bad thing in the medium to longer term though the evidence so far of a massive flight from London (or "carnage" in the familiar language) is thin on the ground despite the best efforts of Project Fear.

[Francis Albert]

14 minutes ago, ...a bit disco said:

Michael Russell‏Verified account @Feorlean 4m4 minutes ago

Michael Russell Retweeted Sabine Weyand

Deputy to Barnier confirms link in political declaration between access to waters and market access, as in black and white in the Political Declaration. May says the opposite in the Commons, leaving her open to a charge of misleading Parliament I would have thought....

I suppose it is inconceivable that the deputy to Barnier has got it wrong? Or that they are just taking at cross purposes. I think I'll read the declaration before deciding.

 

[ri Alban]

22 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Rarely discussed, because it’s not convenient to the doomsters’ cause, is the fact that 92 per cent of British businesses do no trade at all with the EU (accounting for 87 per cent of our economy). The alleged apocalypse will affect just eight per cent of companies and you’d think they might be big enough and clever enough to adapt to the new conditions. Is the soul of our nation really to be held in bondage because of “manufacturing supply chains”?

You're funny!

 

If the UK is in bondage, what's Scotland in. Shackles and concrete overcoats. 

[Francis Albert]

35 minutes ago, ...a bit disco said:

Michael Russell‏Verified account @Feorlean 4m4 minutes ago

Michael Russell Retweeted Sabine Weyand

Deputy to Barnier confirms link in political declaration between access to waters and market access, as in black and white in the Political Declaration. May says the opposite in the Commons, leaving her open to a charge of misleading Parliament I would have thought....

Having read the relevant parts of the political declaration I can confirm that the link "in black and white" exists in the sense that references to the access to waters and market access are both printed in monochrome. Russell as you would expect is spinning away. If the link was as clear as suggested it would be about the only clear thing in the document which is no more than a non-binding aspiration of what  might or might not be agreed between now and the end of the transition period. But outrage will ensue.

[...a bit disco]

8 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Having read the relevant parts of the political declaration I can confirm that the link "in black and white" exists in the sense that references to the access to waters and market access are both printed in monochrome. Russell as you would expect is spinning away. If the link was as clear as suggested it would be about the only clear thing in the document which is no more than a non-binding aspiration of what  might or might not be agreed between now and the end of the transition period. But outrage will ensue.

 

Tbf, he's not the only one raising this point.

 

It's developing into a veritable storm, it would seem.

[jack D and coke]

On 15/11/2018 at 10:19, Victorian said:

 

Preparing himself for all eventualities.    Doesn't know which way to jump yet because he has no convictions.    He'll wait it out and let others take the lead.

A snake of a human. Beyond belief people believe he’s got anybody other than his own arse in mind when he does anything. Remember Ken Clarke saying he was always on about privatising the health service and that if in charge of defence he’d have Britain invading countries left right and centre. 

A horrible man. 

[ri Alban]

3 hours ago, jack D and coke said:

A snake of a human. Beyond belief people believe he’s got anybody other than his own arse in mind when he does anything. Remember Ken Clarke saying he was always on about privatising the health service and that if in charge of defence he’d have Britain invading countries left right and centre. 

A horrible man. 

Sorry Jackie, who are you talking about, Boris? 

[jack D and coke]

18 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Sorry Jackie, who are you talking about, Boris? 

Gove. 

[ri Alban]

Just now, jack D and coke said:

Gove. 

Creepy little gimp. 

[ri Alban]

Fisherman have been sold out again. 

[jack D and coke]

1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

Creepy little gimp. 

One of those “scots” who heads south on the make and grabs it with a gusto. A guy who now looks back up north and down his nose at the place. There’s plenty of them. 

Hes a wrong un and no mistake. 

[ri Alban]

Just now, jack D and coke said:

One of those “scots” who heads south on the make and grabs it with a gusto. A guy who now looks back up north and down his nose at the place. There’s plenty of them. 

Hes a wrong un and no mistake. 

A Sheepshagger. 

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

Gove. 

[jack D and coke]

3 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Fisherman have been sold out again. 

I read a bit about how a small group of families have got the catches all but sown up and I didn’t like it tbh. Not sure if I’m arsed about them anymore. 

[ri Alban]

Just now, jack D and coke said:

I read a bit about how a small group of families have got the catches all but sown up and I didn’t like it tbh. Not sure if I’m arsed about them anymore. 

Like the Welsh, they've cut their own throats. 

[jack D and coke]

Just now, ri Alban said:

Like the Welsh, they've cut their own throats. 

The welsh are a joke. Even bigger feardys than us. 

[ri Alban]

6 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

The welsh are a joke. Even bigger feardys than us. 

?

[Sidelight]

6 hours ago, ri Alban said:

You're funny!

 

If the UK is in bondage, what's Scotland in. Shackles and concrete overcoats. 

Do you still have the suit?

[JamboX2]

On 21/11/2018 at 17:57, Francis Albert said:

The UK will still trade be able to (and will)  trade with Canada and every other non-EU country after we leave the EU, as we will with the remainder of the EU. The terms may not be as good but by no stretch of the imagination could they be described as "calamitous".

 

We'd need new trade deals though. How are they coming along?

[JamboX2]

1 hour ago, ri Alban said:

Fisherman have been sold out again. 

 

Not really. 2 years on the same rules then out ofthe CFP. Government have agreed something closer to the Norway deal.

 

Of course in your preferred option we'd go back into CFP. Which there are a lot of merits to in my view.

 

Don't really get why fishing is being held up as such a totemic issue for both the SNP and Tories to try plant their flags on. May had got a half decent deal on leaving for fisheries (bad deal otherwise) but Sturgeon would take them back into the CFP. 

 

Odd debate.

[JamboX2]

7 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

Having read the relevant parts of the political declaration I can confirm that the link "in black and white" exists in the sense that references to the access to waters and market access are both printed in monochrome. Russell as you would expect is spinning away. If the link was as clear as suggested it would be about the only clear thing in the document which is no more than a non-binding aspiration of what  might or might not be agreed between now and the end of the transition period. But outrage will ensue.

 

It's a non-issue. We're - whisper it - slowly heading to a Norway type arrangement. Seems the way May is edging. So CFP and CAP won't be issues long-term bit deals will be made on them, I.e. limited acces to waters for Spanish boats to offset Gibraltar imo.

 

But why Brexit by it's nature means no CFP so all in all it seems more spin than much else.

[ri Alban]

4 hours ago, JamboX2 said:

 

Not really. 2 years on the same rules then out ofthe CFP. Government have agreed something closer to the Norway deal.

 

Of course in your preferred option we'd go back into CFP. Which there are a lot of merits to in my view.

 

Don't really get why fishing is being held up as such a totemic issue for both the SNP and Tories to try plant their flags on. May had got a half decent deal on leaving for fisheries (bad deal otherwise) but Sturgeon would take them back into the CFP. 

 

Odd debate.

No she would not. Stop telling lies. The SNP have continually campaigned to change the CFP. The Tories are total charlatans on this, otherwise they'd have resigned on mass. 

 

5 hours ago, alfajambo said:

Do you still have the suit?

Are you still talking to imaginary friends. 

[ri Alban]

10th of December, then the no confidence will be triggered by the Tories. 

[Francis Albert]

9 hours ago, JamboX2 said:

 

We'd need new trade deals though. How are they coming along?

Since we cannot negotiate new trade deals until we leave the EU  they have understandably enough not progressed beyond initial talks about talks. In these most responses have been positive and for what it is worth the Political Declaration says that the final deal will allow and facilitate the UK to develop trade relations outside the EU.
And believe it or not we can and do trade without trade deals (but within WTO of which we are already a fully fledged member). Go into any supermarket and you will see shelves groaning with wines from all over the world, often cheaper and at least as good in quality as much of the wine we import from the EU. In an electronics and white goods outlet the same. Go to an American supermarket and you will see a wide range of Scotch on sale, often cheaper than you can buy it in the UK or the rest of Europe. (You can also buy EU wine cheaper there). China is one of the biggest markets for what little is left of the UK car industry (after 40 years in the EU, as we have transformed our economy into a low wage low skill service economy dependent on EU manufacturing industry).

Edited November 23, 2018 by Francis Albert

[AlimOzturk]

No fan of Brexit but anyone getting the feeling that a new Brexit referendum has been the plan all along?

 

Make Brexit seem such a doomsday scenario tbat the British public will coward into a second referendum and unltimatlely reverse the result.

[...a bit disco]

Spain saying they and the UK are farther apart than ever and they intend to vote against any Brexit deal as it stands.

 

The CBI accused of saying one thing in public and the opposite in private.

 

More to come on Theresa's very own Black Friday no doubt.

[Francis Albert]

8 minutes ago, ...a bit disco said:

Spain saying they and the UK are farther apart than ever and they intend to vote against any Brexit deal as it stands.

 

The CBI accused of saying one thing in public and the opposite in private.

 

More to come on Theresa's very own Black Friday no doubt.

Not another one. Didn't she not have one last week with the no-confidence vote and her imminent demise alll over the media?

Edited November 23, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Victorian]

Nice to see May appealing to the public over backing for the plan.     Kind of like a notional referendum with just the one option.

 

If they gave a shite what the public thought we would have a real referendum (*).

 

(*) aye we've had one already blah blah (albeit it was treated like a blank cheque).

[...a bit disco]

Dominic Raab though.

 

BBC Radio 4 Today‏Verified account @BBCr4today 2m2 minutes ago

Theresa May's proposed EU deal "would be even worse" than staying in the EU on the current terms says former Brexit Secretary @DominicRaab: "We'd effectively be bound by the same rules but without the control or voice over them" #r4today https://bbc.in/2DSMLgT 

[...a bit disco]

7 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Not another one. Didn't she not have one last week with the no-confidence vote and her imminent demise alll over the media?

 

She can never have enough of 'em FA. Keeps her on the front pages.

 

 

[Francis Albert]

19 minutes ago, ...a bit disco said:

Spain saying they and the UK are farther apart than ever and they intend to vote against any Brexit deal as it stands.

 

The CBI accused of saying one thing in public and the opposite in private.

 

More to come on Theresa's very own Black Friday no doubt.

Spain's hypocrisy and double standards are nauseating. They cling to Ceuta and Melilla without even allowing their inhabitants to have a say. They will now welcome an independet Scotland into the EU (and predict the break up of the UK) while supressing Catalonian nationalism and imprisoning its proponents. Yet its position on Gibraltar is greeted with glee buy many remainers as whoopee! another obstacle to even the softest of Brexits.

[...a bit disco]

3 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Spain's hypocrisy and double standards are nauseating. They cling to Ceuta and Melilla without even allowing their inhabitants to have a say. They will now welcome an independet Scotland into the EU (and predict the break up of the UK) while supressing Catalonian nationalism and imprisoning its proponents. Yet its position on Gibraltar is greeted with glee buy many remainers as whoopee! another obstacle to even the softest of Brexits.

 

Double standards indeed. And you're right. They have no time for the British.

[Francis Albert]

13 minutes ago, ...a bit disco said:

Dominic Raab though.

 

BBC Radio 4 Today‏Verified account @BBCr4today 2m2 minutes ago

Theresa May's proposed EU deal "would be even worse" than staying in the EU on the current terms says former Brexit Secretary @DominicRaab: "We'd effectively be bound by the same rules but without the control or voice over them" #r4today https://bbc.in/2DSMLgT 

He resigned because he opposed the proposed deal! Latest news is that bears shit in the woods!

[Francis Albert]

32 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Nice to see May appealing to the public over backing for the plan.     Kind of like a notional referendum with just the one option.

 

If they gave a shite what the public thought we would have a real referendum (*).

 

(*) aye we've had one already blah blah (albeit it was treated like a blank cheque).

The blank cheque was provided by the 85% of MPs who voted to hold a referendum with a "Leave" or "Remain" choice.

What will be the question on the second "People's Vote"? (1) Accept a deal which is close as we can get to Remain or (2) Remain.

The Remainers campaign to reverse or nullify the first vote is almost there.

While of course "respecting the vote".

 

And the PM is not supposed to argue publicly for support of the deal? Really?

 

PS And I accused the Spanish of hypocrisy and double standards!

Edited November 23, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Mikey1874]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

No fan of Brexit but anyone getting the feeling that a new Brexit referendum has been the plan all along?

 

Make Brexit seem such a doomsday scenario tbat the British public will coward into a second referendum and unltimatlely reverse the result.

 

It's hard to see what the plan is. 

 

The difficulties I think reflect British long term divisions over Europe and confused thinking over key areas such as fisheries. 

 

The 'May' Exit plan just seems sensible to me based as it is in Britain being in a relatively weak position in deciding to leave a major block. It's also just a starting point. 

 

Whatever happens it seems to me 

 

1. We are leaving EU on 29 March

 

2. Some sort of compromise will be reached to ease the transition 

Edited November 23, 2018 by Mikey1874

[Victorian]

12 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

The blank cheque was provided by the 85% of MPs who voted to hold a referendum with a "Leave" or "Remain" choice.

What will be the question on the second "People's Vote"? (1) Accept a deal which is close as we can get to Remain or (2) Remain.

The Remainers campaign to reverse or nullify the first vote is almost there.

While of course "respecting the vote".

 

And the PM is not supposed to argue publicly for support of the deal? Really?

 

PS And I accused the Spanish of hypocrisy and double standards!

 

The simple,  binary choice came with a tacit expectation that a leave outcome and exit process would not be managed like a chimps tea party.    The country has been treated with gross contempt and there is no point pretending otherwise.

[Boris]

Just now, Victorian said:

 

The simple,  binary choice came with a tacit expectation that a leave outcome and exit process would not be managed like a chimps tea party.    The country has been treated with gross contempt and there is no point pretending otherwise.

 

Not to mention the cloud of electoral fraud surrounding the winning side.

[Mikey1874]

Just now, Victorian said:

 

The simple,  binary choice came with a tacit expectation that a leave outcome and exit process would not be managed like a chimps tea party.    The country has been treated with gross contempt and there is no point pretending otherwise.

 

Agree

 

1. The Brexiteers ran away and then failed to articulate a plan beyond slogans 

 

2. Soft Brexit become the negotiating strategy 

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

Not to mention the cloud of electoral fraud surrounding the winning side.

 

That as well,  to compound everything else.     The referendum was utterly corrupt and the outcome has been abused.    The country has effectively been forced to sign some kind of bogus confession and we're now being prosecuted to the full force of an agenda not shared by many people.

[Victorian]

Sign here : ____________________

 

We'll fill the rest in later and let you know more details if we get time.

[Justin Z]

Hey. Stop "not respecting the vote" .

 

No, in seriousness: this hypocrisy and ridiculousness needs pointing out at every opportunity.

[...a bit disco]

iain watson‏Verified account @iainjwatson 13m13 minutes ago

The PM's spokeswoman has made clear @theresa_may disagrees with @DominicRaab that her deal is worse than EU membership. She has argued before that it's a good deal, but better than existing membership? Maybe she will be asked direct on @bbc5live at 1230

 

iain watson‏Verified account @iainjwatson 7m7 minutes ago

& no10 say there isnt a 'two step ' strategy on #brexit meaningful vote - ie expecting the deal to be voted down but bringing it back if the markets react badly -@theresa_may's spokeswoman says she is confident the deal will go through and is addressing the public not just MPs

[Victorian]

So, present the vote once in the full knowledge of markets and currency trauma,   only to present it a second time and... what?    Hope for the best?

 

In the national interest.

[Mikey1874]

3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

So, present the vote once in the full knowledge of markets and currency trauma,   only to present it a second time and... what?    Hope for the best?

 

In the national interest.

 

I expect the EU and UK have gone through the scenarios and there is a plan to implement a soft transition in event of No Deal. Maybe along lines of the Deal. 

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

I expect the EU and UK have gone through the scenarios and there is a plan to implement a soft transition in event of No Deal. Maybe along lines of the Deal. 

 

There is no chance the EU would entertain any kind of transition in a no deal outcome.     A transition is the carrot to facilitate getting the UK to agree to a withdrawal settlement.    

 

The UK needs a transition period.    The EU aren't going to hand one out for nothing.

[Mikey1874]

3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

There is no chance the EU would entertain any kind of transition in a no deal outcome.     A transition is the carrot to facilitate getting the UK to agree to a withdrawal settlement.    

 

The UK needs a transition period.    The EU aren't going to hand one out for nothing.

 

EU aren't going to just allow chaos if deal doesn't pass Parliament