House prices in Edinburgh

[Therapist]

I know i was agreeing with you and backing up your point.

 

Oh! Sorry Baz.

[Chip Douglas]

If you live in Edinburgh you'll be fine. Overall, prices will be flat at worst. Edinburgh doesn't do boom and bust unlike SE England. I know Coppercrutch will be gutted but this is a fact.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/House-sales--slump-but.4279542.jp

 

Whilst I tend to agree Mr TheRhapist, the problem with the Edinburgh market right now is a proliferation of cheap, newbuilds skewing the market; predominantly deep in Lochend territory; or Granton for the geographically challenged.

[coppercrutch]

If you live in Edinburgh you'll be fine. Overall, prices will be flat at worst. Edinburgh doesn't do boom and bust unlike SE England. I know Coppercrutch will be gutted but this is a fact.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/House-sales--slump-but.4279542.jp

 

You are a fairly sensible chap on many things but when it comes to this subject you are comparable to Mickey Weir.

 

Seems you have swallowed up the vested interest tosh hook line and sinker.

 

You see, this whole argument about Edinburgh not having booms and bust like England, so we won't see the same bust they are having - is fine and dandy.

 

Only one HUGE problem with this logic however....

 

 

WE HAVE JUST HAD A MASSIVE BOOM IN EDINBURGH...

 

So by the deniers own logic we are about to have a massive bust.

 

Asking ESPC about house prices is like asking Turkeys about Christmas.

 

When sales volumes collapse prices collapse. I am not even going to explain why. A 4 year old child could understand.

 

Prices in Edinburgh are already down about 10-15%.

 

If you don't believe me put your house on the market and see what you get for it.

 

They will come down between 30-50% in real terms. Probably about 30% nominal falls. Perhaps much more.

[coppercrutch]

Whilst I tend to agree Mr TheRhapist, the problem with the Edinburgh market right now is a proliferation of cheap, newbuilds skewing the market; predominantly deep in Lochend territory; or Granton for the geographically challenged.

 

The problem with the Edinburgh market is houses are ridiculously overpriced. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Everything else is just noise. Prices will come down. It is getting boring having to explain this FACT to people, when a 4 year old child can easily understand the logic.

 

-Credit has been contracted.

-House prices are based on credit availability.

-Reduction in credit = house prices go down.

 

 

Seriously - a 4 year old child with learning difficulties would get this within the space of 0.04 seconds. Why do so many otherwise clearly intelligent people have so much trouble with it...

[Munch]

The problem with the Edinburgh market is houses are ridiculously overpriced. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Everything else is just noise. Prices will come down. It is getting boring having to explain this FACT to people, when a 4 year old child can easily understand the logic.

 

-Credit has been contracted.

-House prices are based on credit availability.

-Reduction in credit = house prices go down.

 

 

Seriously - a 4 year old child with learning difficulties would get this within the space of 0.04 seconds. Why do so many otherwise clearly intelligent people have so much trouble with it...

 

I see where you are coming from, and i agree with your logic, However for the past 40 years house prices in Edinburgh have increased in value by 100% every 10 years that is fact.

That includes going through the bad periods within that time frame.

 

Will that fact change due too the current credit crunch, time will tell, i suspect we are in for at least 2 years of flat growth, there after, i suspect prices wil start to go up again.

 

Tell you what though , if you are the lucky one and have a mortgage approved, and are in the market to buy a home to stay in, you will get the mother off all bargains right now.

[coppercrutch]

I see where you are coming from, and i agree with your logic, However for the past 40 years house prices in Edinburgh have increased in value by 100% every 10 years that is fact.

That includes going through the bad periods within that time frame.

 

Will that fact change due too the current credit crunch, time will tell, i suspect we are in for at least 2 years of flat growth, there after, i suspect prices wil start to go up again.

 

Tell you what though , if you are the lucky one and have a mortgage approved, and are in the market to buy a home to stay in, you will get the mother off all bargains right now.

 

Come on jambosrbarry you seem like a sensible chap !!

 

Prices have increased by 100% over 10 years. That may be true. However what has happened to the value of that money over the same period.....

 

As I have said numerous times houses HAVE TO RISE by about 5% per year just to retain their value. This is not an increase in price, no matter what the vested interests tell you !!

 

As for 'flat growth' I do not know where to begin. There is no such thing. These things go up or down. End of story. The idea they are somehow going to stay at exactly the same price over the next 2 years is ludicrous.

 

As for 'getting a bargain' right now that is another vested interest delusion.

 

Barrats shares were a 'bargain' when they were bought at ?4. Why don't you ask people who bought at this price what they think of the present situation...

 

 

30-50% falls in real terms. I am going to save myself more than 100k (including interset payments) by simply waiting and doing my own thing - rather than following the sheeple.

 

Anyone buying a house today for the first time should actually be sectioned. Seriously.

[Munch]

Come on jambosrbarry you seem like a sensible chap !!

 

Prices have increased by 100% over 10 years. That may be true. However what has happened to the value of that money over the same period.....

 

As I have said numerous times houses HAVE TO RISE by about 5% per year just to retain their value. This is not an increase in price, no matter what the vested interests tell you !!

 

As for 'flat growth' I do not know where to begin. There is no such thing. These things go up or down. End of story. The idea they are somehow going to stay at exactly the same price over the next 2 years is ludicrous.

 

As for 'getting a bargain' right now that is another vested interest delusion.

 

Barrats shares were a 'bargain' when they were bought at ?4. Why don't you ask people who bought at this price what they think of the present situation...

 

 

30-50% falls in real terms. I am going to save myself more than 100k (including interset payments) by simply waiting and doing my own thing - rather than following the sheeple.

 

Anyone buying a house today for the first time should actually be sectioned. Seriously.

 

The problem is, what options do youg people have, take for instance a young couple about to get married, both working with good jobs, both still staying at home.

 

There options.

 

1. Rent.

 

2. Buy.

 

3. Council House.

 

4. The grassmarket homeless shelter.

 

Id suspect the only viable options are numbers 1, and 2, ( I think we can agree on this point)

 

Now the logical thing too do right now is rent, however the heart would be telling them, lets buy our own place.

 

Regardless of market conditions, or the fact we have the biggest fool off all time as the prime minister, these people need somewhere too stay.

 

Id imagine there will be a lot off people in this situation right now, if they did go ahead and buy a first time home, this knocks over the first domino in the chain, the people who sold too them buy a bigger house, and so the chain goes on.

 

The bottom line is, if all these people decide to rent, then there is a boom in the rental market ( which i suspect will happen) this leads too investors snapping up property too rent out.

 

If prices continue too drop, this makes the market more atractive too investors as yealds increase due too higher rents, and lower prices.

 

My mate is an IFA, i went in too see him a few weeks ago, too see how he was doing, he had a pile on his desk with over 55 mortgage applications that had been approved, he could not cope with the flood off new business, i asked him who was buying, as too me nothing seems to be selling, and i also asked him where are they buying.

 

Answer was property investors, and they are taking advantage of cheaper house prices to snap up bargains, and it was all over the place, interestingly Aberdeen seemed to be popular ( god knows why ).

 

Also my other mate who owns a letting agent ( a pars fan ) is also up too his eyes in it, and he said rents were going up, landlords are reviewing rents on an annual basis, and tellimg tennants who have stayed in flats for a few years your rent is going up by 100 pcm, or you move out, he said most tennants are accepting the situation and are paying more.

 

This is why you dont see rents increasing, its all done by stelph, someting Gordon brown is good at with his stelph tax.

 

The market is changing, and there will be winners, losers as well granted ( hobos 108 its on the way ). and thats one fact you cant argue on as sure as night follows day 108 is on the way.

[Therapist]

WE HAVE JUST HAD A MASSIVE BOOM IN EDINBURGH...

 

Prices in Edinburgh are already down about 10-15%.

 

They will come down between 30-50% in real terms. Probably about 30% nominal falls. Perhaps much more.

 

There has been no boom in Edinburgh. There has been sustained and controlled growth.

 

A boom is what happens in London when financial institutions get over confident about their future prospects, take on large amounts of people, and pay them high salaries and huge bonuses that fuel the property and luxury goods markets. When the economy contracts these same people are bulleted toot sweet, and a bust cycle rapidly kicks in.

 

Edinburgh has an economy that is heavily dependent on the financial sector. However - and here's the key - it is much more focused on providing support services than the exciting stuff like trading, mergers and acquisitions etc. These support services are - in broad terms - still needed whether markets are up or down. And this is why Edinburgh will not suffer, other than in certain pockets such as those that bought luxury over priced apartments in Grunton.

 

Finally, the figures you quote are, as they say in financial circles, utter mince.

[Therapist]

they are taking advantage of cheaper house prices to snap up bargains,

 

The golden rule of investing; buy low sell high.

[Munch]

The golden rule of investing; buy low sell high.

 

Agreed its all about Timing as well, if you get it right and buy at the right time you cracked it.

[Walter Kidd]

There has been no boom in Edinburgh. There has been sustained and controlled growth.

 

A boom is what happens in London when financial institutions get over confident about their future prospects, take on large amounts of people, and pay them high salaries and huge bonuses that fuel the property and luxury goods markets. When the economy contracts these same people are bulleted toot sweet, and a bust cycle rapidly kicks in.

 

Edinburgh has an economy that is heavily dependent on the financial sector. However - and here's the key - it is much more focused on providing support services than the exciting stuff like trading, mergers and acquisitions etc. These support services are - in broad terms - still needed whether markets are up or down. And this is why Edinburgh will not suffer, other than in certain pockets such as those that bought luxury over priced apartments in Grunton.

 

Finally, the figures you quote are, as they say in financial circles, utter mince.

 

 

 

As we say in advertising circles his figures are utter tosh.

 

Edinburgh's property will fall by no more than 2-5% over the next 18 months, and as my learned friend Bernie Therapist says the over priced breeze blocks down in Granton will suffer.

 

Edinburgh is well served to ride out this recession/economic downturn.

[Therapist]

my learned friend Bernie Therapist

 

:) :)

[Walter Kidd]

:) :)

 

Woof.

[coppercrutch]

The problem is, what options do youg people have, take for instance a young couple about to get married, both working with good jobs, both still staying at home.

 

There options.

 

1. Rent.

 

2. Buy.

 

3. Council House.

 

4. The grassmarket homeless shelter.

 

Id suspect the only viable options are numbers 1, and 2, ( I think we can agree on this point)

 

Now the logical thing too do right now is rent, however the heart would be telling them, lets buy our own place.

 

Regardless of market conditions, or the fact we have the biggest fool off all time as the prime minister, these people need somewhere too stay.

 

Id imagine there will be a lot off people in this situation right now, if they did go ahead and buy a first time home, this knocks over the first domino in the chain, the people who sold too them buy a bigger house, and so the chain goes on.

 

The bottom line is, if all these people decide to rent, then there is a boom in the rental market ( which i suspect will happen) this leads too investors snapping up property too rent out.

 

If prices continue too drop, this makes the market more atractive too investors as yealds increase due too higher rents, and lower prices.

 

My mate is an IFA, i went in too see him a few weeks ago, too see how he was doing, he had a pile on his desk with over 55 mortgage applications that had been approved, he could not cope with the flood off new business, i asked him who was buying, as too me nothing seems to be selling, and i also asked him where are they buying.

 

Answer was property investors, and they are taking advantage of cheaper house prices to snap up bargains, and it was all over the place, interestingly Aberdeen seemed to be popular ( god knows why ).

 

Also my other mate who owns a letting agent ( a pars fan ) is also up too his eyes in it, and he said rents were going up, landlords are reviewing rents on an annual basis, and tellimg tennants who have stayed in flats for a few years your rent is going up by 100 pcm, or you move out, he said most tennants are accepting the situation and are paying more.

 

This is why you dont see rents increasing, its all done by stelph, someting Gordon brown is good at with his stelph tax.

 

The market is changing, and there will be winners, losers as well granted ( hobos 108 its on the way ). and thats one fact you cant argue on as sure as night follows day 108 is on the way.

 

Oh dear. Anyone who is buying property as an 'investment' now is going to get seriously burnt. Catching a falling knife is what they are doing. They will get cut.

 

As for the rental stories I am sorry but nothing I see backs any of that up. Number of properties available has not gone down by any amount. I know someone who was just looking for a house to rent. They wanted 1250, got it for 1100. Lovely big detached house.

 

I am sorry but any landlord who is upping rents by 100 per month is going to end up with no tenants. That is simply ludicrous. People will soon tell him to stuff it and he will be left grovelling for them to return.

[coppercrutch]

As we say in advertising circles his figures are utter tosh.

 

Edinburgh's property will fall by no more than 2-5% over the next 18 months, and as my learned friend Bernie Therapist says the over priced breeze blocks down in Granton will suffer.

 

Edinburgh is well served to ride out this recession/economic downturn.

 

You are kidding right ?

 

Prices have already fallen by about 10-15 %. How about you ask someone who is trying to sell their house what they think and not just beleive what you read in rags like the Evening News.

 

As for your bottom line I do not know where to begin.....

 

What does our city rely on ?

 

Tourism and Financial Services.

 

Both these sectors are going to be decimated in the coming years. They already are.

 

Our city is also one of the most overpriced in the UK in terms of average house prices to average salary.

 

Edinburgh will be one of the hardest hit parts if the country.

 

30-50%. It will happen. Only question is how and when. In fact it has already started...

[coppercrutch]

There has been no boom in Edinburgh. There has been sustained and controlled growth.

 

A boom is what happens in London when financial institutions get over confident about their future prospects, take on large amounts of people, and pay them high salaries and huge bonuses that fuel the property and luxury goods markets. When the economy contracts these same people are bulleted toot sweet, and a bust cycle rapidly kicks in.

 

Edinburgh has an economy that is heavily dependent on the financial sector. However - and here's the key - it is much more focused on providing support services than the exciting stuff like trading, mergers and acquisitions etc. These support services are - in broad terms - still needed whether markets are up or down. And this is why Edinburgh will not suffer, other than in certain pockets such as those that bought luxury over priced apartments in Grunton.

 

Finally, the figures you quote are, as they say in financial circles, utter mince.

 

 

I don't know where to begin...

 

One bed flat in Gorgie that you could get for 40k in 2003. In 2007 it would cost you 130k..

 

Explain to me how that is "sustained and controlled growth" and not a boom and you can have 10k. Seriously 10k cash. In the bank ready to go.

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/media-video.php?video=7

 

Please watch the above video and then tell me why my predictions are utter mince. An estate agent is predicting falls of 25% at least.That tells you things are going to be much much worse.

 

Please don't stick to this 'Edinburgh is different' nonsense. Our city will be one of the hardest hit for obvious reasons.

 

I am really getting bored explaining this all to people. Denial is not a river in Africa you know...

[Chad Sexington]

I bought my property for a six figure sum and I stand by that decision.

 

[Therapist]

There's no point in me explaining further. Our views are diametrically opposed and you just won't accept my points.

 

Edinburgh is different from the rest of the UK. In effect it has its own micro-economy. It never had and never will have a boom and bust economic cycle.

 

While we're not immune and there will be pockets of damage, the scaremongering and horrendous figures that apply to the rest of the country do not apply here.

[Walter Kidd]

You are kidding right ?

 

Prices have already fallen by about 10-15 %. How about you ask someone who is trying to sell their house what they think and not just beleive what you read in rags like the Evening News.

 

As for your bottom line I do not know where to begin.....

 

What does our city rely on ?

 

Tourism and Financial Services.

 

Both these sectors are going to be decimated in the coming years. They already are.

 

Our city is also one of the most overpriced in the UK in terms of average house prices to average salary.

 

Edinburgh will be one of the hardest hit parts if the country.

 

30-50%. It will happen. Only question is how and when. In fact it has already started...

 

I don't read the Evening News.

 

You are again talking out your arse when it comes to Edinburgh. House prices will be down 2-5% this year. Source? ESPC, RBS, HBOS etc. House prices in surrounding areas of Edinburgh will suffer.

 

You need to get out into the real world instead of under your mothers apron.

[Therapist]

Well said Adam.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bernie

[coppercrutch]

There's no point in me explaining further. Our views are diametrically opposed and you just won't accept my points.

 

Edinburgh is different from the rest of the UK. In effect it has its own micro-economy. It never had and never will have a boom and bust economic cycle.

 

While we're not immune and there will be pockets of damage, the scaremongering and horrendous figures that apply to the rest of the country do not apply here.

 

We can agree to disagree.

 

Your above comment in bold is what people are clinging too, but it is 100% false.

 

Long term average ratio for house prices to salary is between 2-4. In Edinburgh just now it is about 8. House prices HAVE to fall by 30-50% in real terms. There are no.ifs, buts or maybes about it. Unless you think the long term average has somehow been broken forever. While that is a possibility I would say it is massively unlikely.

 

Long term averages are called that for a good reason.

 

 

You cannot deny Edinburgh has just had a boom. Therefore by your own logic we are due a bust.

 

Denying Edinburgh has had a boom in house prices is like denying Celtic FC are a shameful organisation....

[coppercrutch]

I don't read the Evening News.

 

You are again talking out your arse when it comes to Edinburgh. House prices will be down 2-5% this year. Source? ESPC, RBS, HBOS etc. House prices in surrounding areas of Edinburgh will suffer.

 

You need to get out into the real world instead of under your mothers apron.

 

The same people who in December predicted 4% rises. The same people who 6 weeks ago predicted 2% rises. The same people who this week predicted 0% rises.

 

You are in the group of people in denial about what is happening all around them. Seriously speak to an estate agent or solicitor that deals with these things. (Find one that will tell you the truth.)

 

Edinburgh is crashing. Everyone in the industry knows it. The numbers back that up. Sales down 36% compared to last year..

 

There is only one thing that is going to happen with that massive decrease in sales. Prices will fall, and by a lot. If you are going to argue with that there is no point me even trying to explain things to you....

[Sherlock]

I don't read the Evening News.

 

You are again talking out your arse when it comes to Edinburgh. House prices will be down 2-5% this year. Source? ESPC, RBS, HBOS etc. House prices in surrounding areas of Edinburgh will suffer.

 

You need to get out into the real world instead of under your mothers apron.

 

[Walter Kidd]

The same people who in December predicted 4% rises. The same people who 6 weeks ago predicted 2% rises. The same people who this week predicted 0% rises.

 

You are in the group of people in denial about what is happening all around them. Seriously speak to an estate agent or solicitor that deals with these things. (Find one that will tell you the truth.)

 

Edinburgh is crashing. Everyone in the industry knows it. The numbers back that up. Sales down 36% compared to last year..

 

There is only one thing that is going to happen with that massive decrease in sales. Prices will fall, and by a lot. If you are going to argue with that there is no point me even trying to explain things to you....

 

I don't need to. I speak to these people every day in my job. Retailers, housebuilders, estate agents, house improvers, etc etc. Edinburgh is not going to see anything like the double digit decline you are shouting your mouth off about.

 

Other areas of Lothians/Fife may. Edinburgh will not.

[coppercrutch]

I don't need to. I speak to these people every day in my job. Retailers, housebuilders, estate agents, house improvers, etc etc. Edinburgh is not going to see anything like the double digit decline you are shouting your mouth off about.

 

Other areas of Lothians/Fife may. Edinburgh will not.

 

Here we have the classic case of denial.

 

You see every area in the World has gone through this.

 

"It has happened over there but we will be different !!"

 

The result however is that everywhere that has overpriced property prices will see sharp falls. That is as a close to a fact as it is possible to get.

 

I think you have probably bought a place in the last couple of years with a small or no deposit. You are now getting worried it may have been a bad decision, and you are not going to make the 'profits' you had hoped for....

 

That is the only reason I can see for such blatant denial of the truth.

 

Funny how I am 'shouting my mouth off'. I don't remember many people complaining when the papers and pundits on TV were also 'shouting their mouths off' about property prices shooting up by similar amounts.

 

Funny how this country sees the cost of housing shooting up as a good thing.

 

Brainwashing, pure and simple. Lower house prices are a good thing. The fact I have to actually tell people that is worrying.....

 

Don't shoot the messenger. I am simply telling you the truth. I have been saying this for ages. Now people are slowly coming to realise I actually know what I am talking about.

 

What you don't seem to understand is Edinburgh has already had double digit falls.

 

If you want to sell your house you will have to drop the price by at least 10% from what you could have got last summer. That is simply a fact. As I have said before do a search on Gorgie in the ESPC for the perfect example. One bed flats in Gorgie are already down on their peak by about 10% in nominal terms alone.

 

That is a fact. Whether you like it or not.

[brownkg]

I beleive CC has been vindicated if you look at the new flats going up in the old standard life building in Dundas st the prices range from 275,00 to 795,000. Get in quick Cc a flat in the new town for that low a price won't be available for long.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

or maybes the quality company couldn't afford the price of paint for an extra "0"

[Therapist]

Coppercrutch doesn't actually have a logical or factual argument. He simply tries to browbeat those with an opposite opinion through the sheer volume of his words and posts.

[Munch]

As we say in advertising circles his figures are utter tosh.

 

Edinburgh's property will fall by no more than 2-5% over the next 18 months, and as my learned friend Bernie Therapist says the over priced breeze blocks down in Granton will suffer.

 

Edinburgh is well served to ride out this recession/economic downturn.

 

I just got a call from a property broker, he offered me 6 3 bed flats in Western harbour for 165k a pop.

 

The were originally sold ( off plan) too a so called investor from London for 335k, 3 years ago.

 

Obviously i told him im not intersted, as i know some have sold at auction for as low as 150k.

 

The place is a dissaster area, and i predict the prices there have not bottomed out.

 

However i have a developer friend, who just marketed a property in Morningside that she developed, she sold it in 5 weeks for 398k, 50k over what she had bargained for to get.

 

Grunton is having an effect on the average house price sale in the city by driving down the average sale price.

 

There appears to be individual markets within Edinburgh, some areas are still doing okay, Bruntsfield, Stockbridge, The Grange,Polwarth, Traditional builds.

 

The dont touch with a bargepole stuff, which id highly reccomend to any hobos out there too buy would be Grunton harbour, fester road and the likes.

 

New builds, and new build re sales are a terrible investment/Home choice, Traditional build stuff in solid areas in my opinion are insulated from price drops and will continue to creep up in price.

[Munch]

Coppercrutch doesn't actually have a logical or factual argument. He simply tries to browbeat those with an opposite opinion through the sheer volume of his words and posts.

 

I disagree with you, Coppercrutch makes a lot off sense in what he says,whilst i dont agree with all off his predictions ie house crash, i would agree that prices have dropped 50% plus at Grunton harbour, and they aint finished dropping yet.

 

However other more solid areas off the city are still doing okay.

[Munch]

Oh dear. Anyone who is buying property as an 'investment' now is going to get seriously burnt. Catching a falling knife is what they are doing. They will get cut.

 

As for the rental stories I am sorry but nothing I see backs any of that up. Number of properties available has not gone down by any amount. I know someone who was just looking for a house to rent. They wanted 1250, got it for 1100. Lovely big detached house.

 

I am sorry but any landlord who is upping rents by 100 per month is going to end up with no tenants. That is simply ludicrous. People will soon tell him to stuff it and he will be left grovelling for them to return.

 

Agreed about the investment bit, there are no decent btl products available right now, and off course there is no capital growth to be gained, more like capital decline.

 

The rental increases are 100% happening, i know off a landlord who got an increase of 150pcm per month on 2 properties rented out to poles.

 

Did you see the article in the news today about the 3rd biggest bank in America going Bust ? and the stock market is in a Bear Market.

 

Id be intersted in your thoughts on both these stories, id say this is serious news and can only be bad for the big picture.

[coppercrutch]

Agreed about the investment bit, there are no decent btl products available right now, and off course there is no capital growth to be gained, more like capital decline.

 

The rental increases are 100% happening, i know off a landlord who got an increase of 150pcm per month on 2 properties rented out to poles.

 

Did you see the article in the news today about the 3rd biggest bank in America going Bust ? and the stock market is in a Bear Market.

 

Id be intersted in your thoughts on both these stories, id say this is serious news and can only be bad for the big picture.

 

I do agree with your thoughts that nicer areas will be hit less hard. Thing is everything will be dragged down with the dross. Just look at what is happening in the states. Some of the nicest areas in the country are being hit hardest (Florida/California). Affordability is the key. The areas that have risen the highest and fastest will be the hardest hit. So while places like Bruntsfield will always be desirable I do not think that will be enough to prevent them coming down by a large amount. Of course it will be nothing like Granton or the likes. I reckon you will be able to get a one bed there pretty soon for 30-40k. Very sad they could have made that whole area a nice new part of the city. Instead they just went for maximum profits. Granton shows everything that has been wrong with this property 'boom'.

 

As for the US mortgage market it is pretty csary stuff. These guys are Government backed and provide the backing for 95% if us mortgages IIRC. That is a total of 5.5 trillion dollars of debt.

 

If they go bust or get bailed out I have heard many who think this will lead to mortgage rates increasing. Their lending will cease and this will have a knock on effect on the rest of the World's funding. The wonders of globalisation. I do not know a huge amount about this but I have attached a link below with far more intelligent than myself on these matters !!!

 

http://www.iamone.co.uk/2007/12/01/when-mortgages-buy-the-farm/

 

Complex stuff but in short I think we can say it is bad !! It seems if the US Government let them go bust then the World's financial system would collapse.

 

So they cannot let that happen. Who knows but this whole mess is getting scary now. House prices are the least of our worries by the looks of it.

[neobis]

Here we have the classic case of denial.

 

100% agree.

 

I love the "Edinburgh is different" quotes. Yes a City where its main backbone is in finance ......

[Therapist]

I do not know a huge amount about this.

 

:rolleyes:

[coppercrutch]

As for rents I have no doubt about the validity of your story. However I also know people who have been asked to pay more. They told the landlords to go shove it. They did.

 

Luckily I have been keeping stats on rental availabiliy and price in Edinburgh over the last few months. This lets us see the overall picture and not just a few anecdotes. I Use Letting Web and City lets:

 

 

LETTING WEB:

 

7 April 2008:

 

?600-?700 = 265 flats

?700-?800 = 124 flats

?800-?900 = 47 flats

 

12 July 2008:

 

?600-?700 = 265 flats

?700-?800 = 159 flats

?800-?900 = 64 flats

 

So according to Letting Web rentals properties are in fact increasing in supply. There are more added to the higher brackets, but not by a huge amount.

 

CityLets:

 

7 April 2008:

 

600-700 2 bed in Edinburgh = 241

700-800 2 BED In Edinburgh = 141

800-900 2 bed in Edinburgh = 78

 

12 Jul 2008:

 

600-700 2 bed in Edinburgh = 271

700-800 2 BED In Edinburgh = 198

800-900 2 bed in Edinburgh = 121

 

Similar results from CityLets.

 

So it doesn't look like rents are shooting up in Edinburgh by any means. I think we will have a short period where landlords try and raise rents and some people give in. Then I think the rental supply will increase even more as builders etc.. add to the pile along with the Polish leaving. People will start to lose jobs etc.. so will move in with mates, become a lodger or move back home with parents.

 

Rents will then fall in line with affordability as they have to.

[coppercrutch]

100% agree.

 

I love the "Edinburgh is different" quotes. Yes a City where its main backbone is in finance ......

 

Yes but we have tourism to fall back on !!! The global slowdown won't impact on that !!

 

Actually come to think of it.......................

 

You know what amuses me ? When people tell me that prices in London may crash 30% but Edinburgh will remain unaffected.

 

I then point out that this would result in property in Edinburgh being more expensive than London.....

 

The argument is then over before it had even begun.

[coppercrutch]

Coppercrutch doesn't actually have a logical or factual argument. He simply tries to browbeat those with an opposite opinion through the sheer volume of his words and posts.

 

I think my argument is about as logical and factual as you can get.

 

People trying to say Edinburgh has not had a housing boom is not factual or logical by any means...

[Munch]

As for rents I have no doubt about the validity of your story. However I also know people who have been asked to pay more. They told the landlords to go shove it. They did.

 

Luckily I have been keeping stats on rental availabiliy and price in Edinburgh over the last few months. This lets us see the overall picture and not just a few anecdotes. I Use Letting Web and City lets:

 

 

LETTING WEB:

 

7 April 2008:

 

?600-?700 = 265 flats

?700-?800 = 124 flats

?800-?900 = 47 flats

 

12 July 2008:

 

?600-?700 = 265 flats

?700-?800 = 159 flats

?800-?900 = 64 flats

 

So according to Letting Web rentals properties are in fact increasing in supply. There are more added to the higher brackets, but not by a huge amount.

 

CityLets:

 

7 April 2008:

 

600-700 2 bed in Edinburgh = 241

700-800 2 BED In Edinburgh = 141

800-900 2 bed in Edinburgh = 78

 

12 Jul 2008:

 

600-700 2 bed in Edinburgh = 271

700-800 2 BED In Edinburgh = 198

800-900 2 bed in Edinburgh = 121

 

Similar results from CityLets.

 

So it doesn't look like rents are shooting up in Edinburgh by any means. I think we will have a short period where landlords try and raise rents and some people give in. Then I think the rental supply will increase even more as builders etc.. add to the pile along with the Polish leaving. People will start to lose jobs etc.. so will move in with mates, become a lodger or move back home with parents.

 

Rents will then fall in line with affordability as they have to.

 

Yip you are spott on, the figures dont lie, it will be intersting to check the data in 6 months.

 

On the 6 months scenario the new single survey scheme kicks in in December this year, another master stroke by Gordon Brown ( The biggest fool to ever stay in no 10, rent free off course).

 

This will add 500 quid onto the price off selling a property ( Well done Gord) when the market is on its knees, Gord adds 500 quid onto the price for a useless piece off paper, 500 quids worth.

 

Still it will keep a few more Poles employed, bet they are all on the training course now.

 

This Action by Gordon Brown, will be the final nail in the coffin for the property market.

 

I also heard today that one of the major estate agents in East Lothian are paying off 12 staff this month.

 

Warners paid of 18 last month, so there is definatly a downturn in terms of sales volumes.

 

All the signs are there off a severe down turn, from Marks and Spencers, too car dealers, everything is slowing down, there is a reccesion on the way, a blind man with a stick can see it.

[coppercrutch]

Yip you are spott on, the figures dont lie, it will be intersting to check the data in 6 months.

 

On the 6 months scenario the new single survey scheme kicks in in December this year, another master stroke by Gordon Brown ( The biggest fool to ever stay in no 10, rent free off course).

 

This will add 500 quid onto the price off selling a property ( Well done Gord) when the market is on its knees, Gord adds 500 quid onto the price for a useless piece off paper, 500 quids worth.

 

Still it will keep a few more Poles employed, bet they are all on the training course now.

 

This Action by Gordon Brown, will be the final nail in the coffin for the property market.

 

I also heard today that one of the major estate agents in East Lothian are paying off 12 staff this month.

 

Warners paid of 18 last month, so there is definatly a downturn in terms of sales volumes.

 

All the signs are there off a severe down turn, from Marks and Spencers, too car dealers, everything is slowing down, there is a reccesion on the way, a blind man with a stick can see it.

 

Indeed. I do hope it does not get as bad as some fear. But it is looking pretty desperate.

 

As for the single seller survey that was actually supported by most in the industry when it was first agreed IIRC ?

 

I know the timing is poor but lets be honest ?500 is not going to make a hell of a difference !!

 

I have seen a few places that I may be interested in come 2011-2012. Sitting about 165k just now I fully expect them to be under 100k by then. I just have to hope I have work for the next 4 years !!!

[Guest S.U.S.S.]

Yip you are spott on, the figures dont lie, it will be intersting to check the data in 6 months.

 

On the 6 months scenario the new single survey scheme kicks in in December this year, another master stroke by Gordon Brown ( The biggest fool to ever stay in no 10, rent free off course).

 

This will add 500 quid onto the price off selling a property ( Well done Gord) when the market is on its knees, Gord adds 500 quid onto the price for a useless piece off paper, 500 quids worth.

 

Still it will keep a few more Poles employed, bet they are all on the training course now.

 

This Action by Gordon Brown, will be the final nail in the coffin for the property market.

 

I also heard today that one of the major estate agents in East Lothian are paying off 12 staff this month.

 

Warners paid of 18 last month, so there is definatly a downturn in terms of sales volumes.

 

All the signs are there off a severe down turn, from Marks and Spencers, too car dealers, everything is slowing down, there is a reccesion on the way, a blind man with a stick can see it.

 

Nothing to stop a Scotsman going on the course. Perhaps if more Scotsmen had their work ethic the country would be better placed to deal with economic downturns.

[Munch]

Nothing to stop a Scotsman going on the course. Perhaps if more Scotsmen had their work ethic the country would be better placed to deal with economic downturns.

 

Fair comment, you cannot fault ward work and ambition regardless of race or creed, i was out off order with that comment.

[Munch]

Indeed. I do hope it does not get as bad as some fear. But it is looking pretty desperate.

 

As for the single seller survey that was actually supported by most in the industry when it was first agreed IIRC ?

 

I know the timing is poor but lets be honest ?500 is not going to make a hell of a difference !!

 

I have seen a few places that I may be interested in come 2011-2012. Sitting about 165k just now I fully expect them to be under 100k by then. I just have to hope I have work for the next 4 years !!!

 

Its not going too help things thats for sure, anyway the way the property market works in Scotland is an offer goes in subject too survey.

 

If accepted the survey is done post the offer being accepted, do you really think anybody buying a property is going to look at a survey report instucted by the seller ( you are having a laugh).

 

Nope a complete waste off time, its been a disaster in England, every one is against it except Gordon Brown. whenever i hear this mans name i feel like im going too:boak:

[coppercrutch]

Its not going too help things thats for sure, anyway the way the property market works in Scotland is an offer goes in subject too survey.

 

If accepted the survey is done post the offer being accepted, do you really think anybody buying a property is going to look at a survey report instucted by the seller ( you are having a laugh).

 

Nope a complete waste off time, its been a disaster in England, every one is against it except Gordon Brown. whenever i hear this mans name i feel like im going too:boak:

 

So when it was planned it made sense but now most people go for 'subject to survey' there is little point ?

 

On a related note I do think we should change to fixed price as standard. The number of people that have paid way too much for a house is ridiculous. Blind auctions are not a good idea for such a critical purchase. I know when people are selling a house in a good market they love it, however they then have to see it from the other side and probably waste a lot of the extra money they gained from selling !!

 

Just seems to be a way to get higher prices so Estate Agents and developers profit. Greed - same old, same old....

[Munch]

So when it was planned it made sense but now most people go for 'subject to survey' there is little point ?

 

On a related note I do think we should change to fixed price as standard. The number of people that have paid way too much for a house is ridiculous. Blind auctions are not a good idea for such a critical purchase. I know when people are selling a house in a good market they love it, however they then have to see it from the other side and probably waste a lot of the extra money they gained from selling !!

 

Just seems to be a way to get higher prices so Estate Agents and developers profit. Greed - same old, same old....

 

100 percent agree with you on this one, it makes so much more sense, and indeed would assist both buyers and sellers.

 

Its all too late now though, the damage is done, the rest off this year is a write off in terms off property, i suspect we will see minor sprouts springing up next Spring, after the down turn. just my guess.

 

prices at Grunton harbour will be down too around 120k for a 2 bed, originally sold at 235k, can you beleive anyone paid 235k for a 2 bed box, at grunton, only sad hobos na they no got any dosh.

 

3 beds originally sold at 320, you will get for 140k, i still would not take them, they should just nuke the place and be done with it.

[flecktimus]

Its not going too help things thats for sure, anyway the way the property market works in Scotland is an offer goes in subject too survey.

 

If accepted the survey is done post the offer being accepted, do you really think anybody buying a property is going to look at a survey report instucted by the seller ( you are having a laugh).

 

Nope a complete waste off time, its been a disaster in England, every one is against it except Gordon Brown. whenever i hear this mans name i feel like im going too:boak:

 

We don't have the sellers survey down south. We have HIPS which is a lot more watered down version and a complete waste of money.

[flecktimus]

100 percent agree with you on this one, it makes so much more sense, and indeed would assist both buyers and sellers.

 

Its all too late now though, the damage is done, the rest off this year is a write off in terms off property, i suspect we will see minor sprouts springing up next Spring, after the down turn. just my guess.

 

prices at Grunton harbour will be down too around 120k for a 2 bed, originally sold at 235k, can you beleive anyone paid 235k for a 2 bed box, at grunton, only sad hobos na they no got any dosh.

 

3 beds originally sold at 320, you will get for 140k, i still would not take them, they should just nuke the place and be done with it.

 

Coming in a bit late here but on the subject of the Grunton Appts at auction, but at least they sold unlike a lot of the west of Scotland flats. This to me shows there is still interest in the Edinburgh property market.

 

I have been agreeing with your mate Coopercrutch that the new build flats are just a disaster waiting to happen and as you have pointed out this is now correct but still saleable at the right price.

 

I also don't buy into this Edinburgh is different thing.Sales are plummeting people need to sell,they will deal.

 

I am moving back to Edinburgh and watching property in a certain area that i want to buy and the prices are coming down nicely and this is the New Town.I wont get the 30-50% Coopercrutch rambles on about, but 10 - 15% may be on the cards.

[coppercrutch]

Coming in a bit late here but on the subject of the Grunton Appts at auction, but at least they sold unlike a lot of the west of Scotland flats. This to me shows there is still interest in the Edinburgh property market.

 

I have been agreeing with your mate Coopercrutch that the new build flats are just a disaster waiting to happen and as you have pointed out this is now correct but still saleable at the right price.

 

I also don't buy into this Edinburgh is different thing.Sales are plummeting people need to sell,they will deal.

 

I am moving back to Edinburgh and watching property in a certain area that i want to buy and the prices are coming down nicely and this is the New Town.I wont get the 30-50% Coopercrutch rambles on about, but 10 - 15% may be on the cards.

 

Yes but you are likely to be getting 10-15% off within only 6 months of this all properly kicking off.

 

My predictions are for over the next 3-4 years. I think you would have to agree I am looking more than good so far.

 

If you are looking for a New Town place I have a tip for you. I don't know if you remember the other thread about DJ Alexander selling off all his New Town stuff under the 'Heritors' guise ?

 

These signs have now all gone. They have either disappeared or been replaced with To Let signs from DJ Alexander itself. Not sure what has happened. Their website has disappeared too....

 

If I were you I would be contacting them about the places they were recently trying to sell. Ask if they would be open to a quick offer at perhaps 15% under what they were wanting...

 

Of course I think you should just wait for 4 years and get it at closer to 50% off. If you don't want to rent however you could do worse than my plan above. Don't say I'm not good to you.

[Munch]

We don't have the sellers survey down south. We have HIPS which is a lot more watered down version and a complete waste of money.

 

Interesting i dont know much about the HIPS Scheme, do you know if it affected the market when the scheme was first introduced ?

[Munch]

Coming in a bit late here but on the subject of the Grunton Appts at auction, but at least they sold unlike a lot of the west of Scotland flats. This to me shows there is still interest in the Edinburgh property market.

 

I have been agreeing with your mate Coopercrutch that the new build flats are just a disaster waiting to happen and as you have pointed out this is now correct but still saleable at the right price.

 

I also don't buy into this Edinburgh is different thing.Sales are plummeting people need to sell,they will deal.

 

I am moving back to Edinburgh and watching property in a certain area that i want to buy and the prices are coming down nicely and this is the New Town.I wont get the 30-50% Coopercrutch rambles on about, but 10 - 15% may be on the cards.

 

There are bargains too be had, i got a call on friday from one off the brokers i deal with, he got news off a property going on for a quick sale at 165k, the property next door is on the market now ( identical unit ) for fixed price 225k, its a solid traditional build property in a very good area off the city.

 

The guy has stayed in it for 20 years no mortgage, and just wants a quick sale, the neighbour has found out what he is doing and is going mental, big fall out between them due too this.

 

There are bargains out there if you know where too look and have the contacts.:)

[flecktimus]

Interesting i dont know much about the HIPS Scheme, do you know if it affected the market when the scheme was first introduced ?

 

To be fair it has probably saved the market from further falls. The reason being with having to pay up front for Hips the only people going to the market place are serious sellers. Most estate agents are no sale no fee, so in the past we have had propertys going on the market that were not really for sale.

[Munch]

To be fair it has probably saved the market from further falls. The reason being with having to pay up front for Hips the only people going to the market place are serious sellers. Most estate agents are no sale no fee, so in the past we have had propertys going on the market that were not really for sale.

 

I dont get that, why would anyone put a property on the market if they did not really want too sell ?