House prices in Edinburgh

[Coco]

I can see where you are coming from with this, i have checked out the figures i can confirm the flat was nearer Polwarth than Bruntsfield, the rental at 750 pcm, is confirmed, i got that info from the letting agent, who was amazed it rented for that amount.

 

The guy is on an interest only BTL Mortgage 2 year fixed rate, i dont know his payment amount though.

 

Ha ha - it was Lower Bruntsfield!

[Munch]

My accountant forcasted my business to gross ?155k this year. The bank knocked me back for a mortgage (had about 7% for a deposit). They said it was because it was my first year of business (7 months into it) as well as the climate. Fair doos

Going to wait til April then take my end of year stuff to the bank

 

You should speak too an IFA, You can get self cert mortgages, well at least you could last year.

You dont need accounts for a self cert mortgage, however as this was what caused the credit crunch in the first place, they may have pulled the products.

[Munch]

Lots of interesting points.

 

(1) Everything linked to property. You are so right. I think we will very quickly find out just how much of this country's 'boom' has been directly as a result of over inflated property prices. I imagine far far too much. Just think of everyone that has released equity from their houses ? All those people going out to buy new cars, expensive handbags, holidays in the Caribbean. They will now have to actually WORK for the privilige. At the same time as paying back the 'equity release' with ever increasing interest rates. Too many people believed an 'equity release' was free money. In fact it was simply more debt.

 

(2) Smart investors buying at the bottom. Spot on. By the looks of it this will be 2011/12. If past cycles are anything to go by.

 

(3) Rents. I am surprised by your examples of rents. I have been doing a search on citylets and letting web for about 4 months now. Numbers and prices have changed very little. I am sure there are nice flats renting out for silly money. I am also sure there are not so bad flats sitting there for ages. I just cant see the average going up. How can it People in Edinburgh are just about to have a lot less money in their pocket than they are used to. I simply do not think there is a scope for rental increases. However time will tell and it will be interesting. I am looking for somewhere in a few weeks so I will let you know !!

 

I also think a lot more people will move back in with parents, into spare rooms with pals etc.. than you first think. Remember there are millions of spare rooms in the UK that could be let out to lodgers, mates etc.. for relatively small amounts. This will help those who have bought places they cannot really afford, and also provide cheap accomodation for people not wanting to fork out to rent their own place. We have had it too easy in this country for too long. I can see landlords trying to up rents en masse, and perhaps it working for a short while. In the end though reality will bite, it always will.

 

The trouble is, its like petrol prices once they go up they never come back down, Rents are the same, a few years ago a 1 bed flat in my beloved Gorgie, was renting for 375 pcm 400 pcm for a good one, now they are 550 pcm pushing 600 pcm for a really top notch one.

 

If you end up with just a handfull of big players owning big chunks off the BTL Market, they have a cartel and can set the rents to suit them, this is another of my predictions.

 

Landlords selling off portfolios of BTL properties too each other and upping the rents too upp the yealds on there investments.

 

More housebuilders paying people off, todays EEN Bovis paying off staff and stopping building, its the same all over no new flats being built.

 

The government set a target of another 2.5 million properties to be built by 2015, to account for the rising population, thats not going to happen now, so where are all these people going too stay.

 

A lot will rent, id guess a split of 75% will rent and 25% will buy.

 

Your Thoughts ?

[coppercrutch]

I can see where you are coming from with this, i have checked out the figures i can confirm the flat was nearer Polwarth than Bruntsfield, the rental at 750 pcm, is confirmed, i got that info from the letting agent, who was amazed it rented for that amount.

 

The guy is on an interest only BTL Mortgage 2 year fixed rate, i dont know his payment amount though.

 

And there we have it !!! His 'yield' is in thin air. He is telling people he is making money off his investment when actually he is losing it.

 

Interest only means he is essentially renting off the bank. He is not paying off the capital investment of the flat. Just what is the point*.........

 

*Well there is a time when there is a point. That is when the capital value of his investment is shooting up, he plans to rent it out for a year then sell it on for a big profit. Nice plan at the right time. Nightmare plan at the wrong time.

[coppercrutch]

The trouble is, its like petrol prices once they go up they never come back down, Rents are the same, a few years ago a 1 bed flat in my beloved Gorgie, was renting for 375 pcm 400 pcm for a good one, now they are 550 pcm pushing 600 pcm for a really top notch one.

 

If you end up with just a handfull of big players owning big chunks off the BTL Market, they have a cartel and can set the rents to suit them, this is another of my predictions.

 

Landlords selling off portfolios of BTL properties too each other and upping the rents too upp the yealds on there investments.

 

More housebuilders paying people off, todays EEN Bovis paying off staff and stopping building, its the same all over no new flats being built.

 

The government set a target of another 2.5 million properties to be built by 2015, to account for the rising population, thats not going to happen now, so where are all these people going too stay.

 

A lot will rent, id guess a split of 75% will rent and 25% will buy.

 

Your Thoughts ?

 

Rents in Edinburgh have risen below the rate of inflation for numerous years. There are a number of articles about this if you have a google. I hear what you are saying about a group of cartels cornering the market and this is a possibility. However there is only so high you can push the price. If they all got together next week and decided all one bed flats were now ?1000 per month do you know what would happen ? Virtually everyone would find somewhere else to live.

 

Affordability is, and always will be, the key. Whilst I do agree the demand for rentals may increase these people had to live somewhere before !!

 

If they are already renting they will just be moving elsewhere. No increase in demand. If they are selling their place then the flat they were in will be added to the pool. Either to be sold (Pushing sale prices down) or rented out (Pushing rents down). If they are staying at home or living with mates do you really think they will choose to move out and spends a fortune on rent during a time when they are not confident about even having a job ?!!

 

I hear a lot of chat about rents increasing. I do agree with some of it. However IMO rents simply cannot increase by any serious amount. It won't work.

 

As for population estimations and demand for new housing ? Who knows. These are all just estimates and could go either way. If Scotland does not have a fair population increase we will be left with a serious housing oversupply. We are a fairly small country in size and population after all.

[coppercrutch]

BTW reporting Scotland just did a story on the Polish emigration slant. Concentrating mainly on the Highlands but this is going on all over Scotland.

 

We don't have anything to worry about in Edinburgh though. It is not as if many Poles in Edinburgh work on building sites - and it is not as if these building sites are going to be laying off staff anytime soon...

 

PS. Funny - BBC are simply repeating many things I have been saying on this site for many months.....

[Munch]

Rents in Edinburgh have risen below the rate of inflation for numerous years. There are a number of articles about this if you have a google. I hear what you are saying about a group of cartels cornering the market and this is a possibility. However there is only so high you can push the price. If they all got together next week and decided all one bed flats were now ?1000 per month do you know what would happen ? Virtually everyone would find somewhere else to live.

 

Affordability is, and always will be, the key. Whilst I do agree the demand for rentals may increase these people had to live somewhere before !!

 

If they are already renting they will just be moving elsewhere. No increase in demand. If they are selling their place then the flat they were in will be added to the pool. Either to be sold (Pushing sale prices down) or rented out (Pushing rents down). If they are staying at home or living with mates do you really think they will choose to move out and spends a fortune on rent during a time when they are not confident about even having a job ?!!

 

I hear a lot of chat about rents increasing. I do agree with some of it. However IMO rents simply cannot increase by any serious amount. It won't work.

 

As for population estimations and demand for new housing ? Who knows. These are all just estimates and could go either way. If Scotland does not have a fair population increase we will be left with a serious housing oversupply. We are a fairly small country in size and population after all.

 

Fair points, i agree with all off what you are saying in this section, one other fly in the ointment to consider on this topic is.

 

The demand for housing supply buy the council to accomodate the homeless, have you heard of a scheme currently being undertaken on behalf off the council by a company called Orchard Shipman.

 

The scheme works like this, you hand over your property too them for 5 years, they hand it too the council and they take there fee from the council who in turn pay the Landlord, a guaranteed set rate every month, with no management fee due by the landlord, they take pictures off it and do a full itinery prior to hand over.

 

They guarantee to return the property too you in the same condition you gave it too them.

 

The interesting bit is how much they pay you.

 

2 bed 562 per month 3. Bed 772 4 bed 1100. no (hmo required)

 

inflation linked so you get an annual increase in rent alligned to inflation.

 

guaranteed no voids, and no fees,

 

With prices going down, i can see some clever investors, making a good earning off this one.

 

How will this impact on the private rental market, there seems to be an insatiable demmand for houses by the council.

 

id be interested in your thoughts on this.

 

Thanks.

[Munch]

BTW reporting Scotland just did a story on the Polish emigration slant. Concentrating mainly on the Highlands but this is going on all over Scotland.

 

We don't have anything to worry about in Edinburgh though. It is not as if many Poles in Edinburgh work on building sites - and it is not as if these building sites are going to be laying off staff anytime soon...

 

PS. Funny - BBC are simply repeating many things I have been saying on this site for many months.....

 

A BLIND MAN WITH A STICK CAN SEE IT, the building trade is in major turmoil now, as are the minor property developers who employ all the poles etc.

 

Its a one way ticket back to Warsaw, and i can see a few Brits heading over there to get on the gravy train in Poland.

[coppercrutch]

Fair points, i agree with all off what you are saying in this section, one other fly in the ointment to consider on this topic is.

 

The demand for housing supply buy the council to accomodate the homeless, have you heard of a scheme currently being undertaken on behalf off the council by a company called Orchard Shipman.

 

The scheme works like this, you hand over your property too them for 5 years, they hand it too the council and they take there fee from the council who in turn pay the Landlord, a guaranteed set rate every month, with no management fee due by the landlord, they take pictures off it and do a full itinery prior to hand over.

 

They guarantee to return the property too you in the same condition you gave it too them.

 

The interesting bit is how much they pay you.

 

2 bed 562 per month 3. Bed 772 4 bed 1100. no (hmo required)

 

inflation linked so you get an annual increase in rent alligned to inflation.

 

guaranteed no voids, and no fees,

 

With prices going down, i can see some clever investors, making a good earning off this one.

 

How will this impact on the private rental market, there seems to be an insatiable demmand for houses by the council.

 

id be interested in your thoughts on this.

 

Thanks.

 

I have heard about that but not in as much detail - cheers.

 

Will more than likely have a effect. Although it looks more than likely much of the development down Granton will become council housing one way or another. I know that the council 'guarantee' your property will be returned in good nick. I also know that council house tenants get a raw deal when it comes to reputations of the vast majority. However a small minority can make an area living hell. I personally would not want my 'investment' to be in the middle of that. Guarantee or no guarantee.

[tammyb1985]

Normally try and not get involved in these chats cos its like being at work, but im a mortgage advisor and i cant help myself.

 

CC has got it nailed, although i would say there are some great deals to be had(mainly out of the city) at the moment. The converse of what happened in the past has hit some people, in that they are "panic selling" as they are concerned about how long it will take for the market to recover so are just getting rid and downsizing or going into rental accomodation themselves. 1.4m people in the UK coming of fixed rates this year looking at a potential rises in the hundreds on their mortgage also meaning they have to "rent it out" or downsize to meet there payments. But ALWAYS checkout what might seem like a good deal. What were the properties going for when we were in "Boom" ? The Gorgie/Leith examples are perfect.

 

As for BTL - Ideally you want a 10% yeild, covers expenses and times when the property will be empty.

 

Self Certs - Are still out there HBOS are still doing them but i believe you have to move your entire business connection to them.....and its HBOS.

[scott_jambo]

Here we go, hold on tight folks

 

 

haha. Thats copper crutch in the blue. lol

[Brian Fantana]

All you guys have me worried here - I've just bought a house with my better half and am now getting a squeaky bum!

 

Would all you financially minded people think this was a bad time to buy? Our survey on the house came back at 10k more than we paid for it, surely that's not a bad start? We needed to buy a house anyway (child on the way), but should we have waited?

 

Thanks in advance for any response

[coppercrutch]

All you guys have me worried here - I've just bought a house with my better half and am now getting a squeaky bum!

 

Would all you financially minded people think this was a bad time to buy? Our survey on the house came back at 10k more than we paid for it, surely that's not a bad start? We needed to buy a house anyway (child on the way), but should we have waited?

 

Thanks in advance for any response

 

If you bought the house as a home, you can afford the mortgage payments, you can afford if they go up a bit, and you are not worried about the 'value' of it going down in the near future then nothing to worry about.

 

Good luck to you. People should be buying houses for the reasons you have stated above. Unless you are wanting to move in the next 5ish years then no need to fret. It is all these people who have seen homes as 'investments' that need to be worried.

[Munch]

I have heard about that but not in as much detail - cheers.

 

Will more than likely have a effect. Although it looks more than likely much of the development down Granton will become council housing one way or another. I know that the council 'guarantee' your property will be returned in good nick. I also know that council house tenants get a raw deal when it comes to reputations of the vast majority. However a small minority can make an area living hell. I personally would not want my 'investment' to be in the middle of that. Guarantee or no guarantee.

 

You are spott on again, that was also my first thought that granton western harbour would become a housing scheme.

 

However.

 

The scheme only allows one property per block, too avoid turning streets and stairs into Ghetos.

[Munch]

Normally try and not get involved in these chats cos its like being at work, but im a mortgage advisor and i cant help myself.

 

CC has got it nailed, although i would say there are some great deals to be had(mainly out of the city) at the moment. The converse of what happened in the past has hit some people, in that they are "panic selling" as they are concerned about how long it will take for the market to recover so are just getting rid and downsizing or going into rental accomodation themselves. 1.4m people in the UK coming of fixed rates this year looking at a potential rises in the hundreds on their mortgage also meaning they have to "rent it out" or downsize to meet there payments. But ALWAYS checkout what might seem like a good deal. What were the properties going for when we were in "Boom" ? The Gorgie/Leith examples are perfect.

 

As for BTL - Ideally you want a 10% yeild, covers expenses and times when the property will be empty.

 

Self Certs - Are still out there HBOS are still doing them but i believe you have to move your entire business connection to them.....and its HBOS.

 

Ten percent yeald on a BTL, maybee if you got in ten tears ago mate, you would struggle too get in excess of 5 percent in todays market.

 

1 bed flat gorgie, price 110 if you are lucky, rent 550 again if you are lucky, yeald ?

 

12 years ago, i bed flat gorgie 30k ( i bought one in 96 for 28k ) rented today at 550 pcm, now you are talking.

[Munch]

All you guys have me worried here - I've just bought a house with my better half and am now getting a squeaky bum!

 

Would all you financially minded people think this was a bad time to buy? Our survey on the house came back at 10k more than we paid for it, surely that's not a bad start? We needed to buy a house anyway (child on the way), but should we have waited?

 

Thanks in advance for any response

 

You have done well, 10k under value, plus you intend too stay in it and raise a family, we are discussing property investments, which is a different kettle off fish.

Enjoy your new home, ( would you want too raise your family in a rented property) i know i would not.

 

If you had opted too rent the property is a house, if you buy it becomes your home, too personalise and do with as you wish.

 

If i told my missus we were going to rent a hoose, she would tell me to **** off.

 

The market will rise again, we are debating on when we think this will happen, so dont panic, and enjoy your new home.

[Coco]

Ten percent yeald on a BTL, maybee if you got in ten tears ago mate, you would struggle too get in excess of 5 percent in todays market.

 

1 bed flat gorgie, price 110 if you are lucky, rent 550 again if you are lucky, yeald ?

 

12 years ago, i bed flat gorgie 30k ( i bought one in 96 for 28k ) rented today at 550 pcm, now you are talking.

 

You can look at this in different ways. If you hold the asset at 30k then yes, nice yield.

 

But ?110k for a flat renting at ?550 pm - basic yield 6%. Minus 'gaps' between tenants. Minus renovation/redecoration costs periodically. Minus tax. And minus interest payments. Looks absolutely awful as an investment.

 

And that is one of the reasons why property prices are likely to fall.

[Munch]

Normally try and not get involved in these chats cos its like being at work, but im a mortgage advisor and i cant help myself.

 

CC has got it nailed, although i would say there are some great deals to be had(mainly out of the city) at the moment. The converse of what happened in the past has hit some people, in that they are "panic selling" as they are concerned about how long it will take for the market to recover so are just getting rid and downsizing or going into rental accomodation themselves. 1.4m people in the UK coming of fixed rates this year looking at a potential rises in the hundreds on their mortgage also meaning they have to "rent it out" or downsize to meet there payments. But ALWAYS checkout what might seem like a good deal. What were the properties going for when we were in "Boom" ? The Gorgie/Leith examples are perfect.

 

As for BTL - Ideally you want a 10% yeild, covers expenses and times when the property will be empty.

 

Self Certs - Are still out there HBOS are still doing them but i believe you have to move your entire business connection to them.....and its HBOS.

 

Self Cert would be ideal for WILLIEJAMIESONSLEFTFOOT he is getting the run around from his bank in terms off accounts etc.

I have done 4 self certs through the years, and there is no way id be in my present home if it was not for self cert mortgages.

Its all about affordabillity, if you really want that property, and you can afford the payments, then why not.

Id prefer too stay in a really nice house even though it costs me a lot, than stay in a dump and have spare dosh kicking around.

As Duncan Bannatyne said " who wants too be the richest man in the graveyard".

Its all about choices, i have renewed my self and my families season tickets others have not, i will go too the games and either enjoy the fare or suffer the fare on show, others can kep there doe, and watch sky sports, there choice.

[coppercrutch]

Ten percent yeald on a BTL, maybee if you got in ten tears ago mate, you would struggle too get in excess of 5 percent in todays market.

 

1 bed flat gorgie, price 110 if you are lucky, rent 550 again if you are lucky, yeald ?

 

12 years ago, i bed flat gorgie 30k ( i bought one in 96 for 28k ) rented today at 550 pcm, now you are talking.

 

Up until about 2 years ago I watched all these 'property shows' and started thinking I wanted a bit of the action too !! So I decided to look into the numbers. They simply do not add up for the last 4 years (Ish).

 

To work out if a BTL is a good option you have to work out the following, (If I have missed anything let me know !!)

 

 

PER MONTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE MORTGAGE:

 

A

Rental income.

 

 

B

Cost of mortgage.

Lost interest you would receive if you had put your deposit in the bank.

Cost of agency fees (If applicable).

Cost of insurance/tax/money set aside for repairs.

Cost of any void periods.

 

 

If A is more than B then you have an investment. The % that A is more than B is your yield.

 

Of course you could run this at a negative yield, pay in money yourself to 'top it up' for one of 2 results:

 

 

(1) You bought when the market is rocketing up. You have no intention of holding onto it for 20 years and you sell for a tidy capital profit in 2-3 years.

 

Problem - You have to time this to perfection or you could end up bankrupt or with a property on your hands you really don't want for the next decade. Very risky plan but fair dos if you are a real risk taker and study the market intensely.

 

(2) You don't care about 'topping up' this investment and in 25 years you will own the flat outright and your tenants will have 'helped' you to buy it. Fair enough.

 

Problem - However for the time, money, effort and hassle involved in doing this over 25 years it is not exactly the best or easiest investment. Far better just firing the time and effort into a mixture of shares/low risk investments/savings. You will more than likely have more at the end of the 25

years than a comparable 'property investment' is worth. I am sure the hassle involved will be a lot less as well.

 

I will let you know in 25 years if I am right or not. I have recently got into spread betting with a small amount of my savings. Holy **** that is one risky and scary way of 'investing' (Gambling) your cash !!

[Munch]

My accountant forcasted my business to gross ?155k this year. The bank knocked me back for a mortgage (had about 7% for a deposit). They said it was because it was my first year of business (7 months into it) as well as the climate. Fair doos

Going to wait til April then take my end of year stuff to the bank

 

Speak too tammyb1985 he knows about self cert mortgages, i also know a broker i could introduce you too who could help you, and he is a solid Jambo, hes on holiday the now , back next week, he is the **** who sent me the Dalgleish text, he is a wizard when it comes to mortgages though.

[Munch]

Up until about 2 years ago I watched all these 'property shows' and started thinking I wanted a bit of the action too !! So I decided to look into the numbers. They simply do not add up for the last 4 years (Ish).

 

To work out if a BTL is a good option you have to work out the following, (If I have missed anything let me know !!)

 

 

PER MONTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE MORTGAGE:

 

A

Rental income.

 

 

B

Cost of mortgage.

Lost interest you would receive if you had put your deposit in the bank.

Cost of agency fees (If applicable).

Cost of insurance/tax/money set aside for repairs.

Cost of any void periods.

 

 

If A is more than B then you have an investment. The % that A is more than B is your yield.

 

Of course you could run this at a negative yield, pay in money yourself to 'top it up' for one of 2 results:

 

 

(1) You bought when the market is rocketing up. You have no intention of holding onto it for 20 years and you sell for a tidy capital profit in 2-3 years.

 

Problem - You have to time this to perfection or you could end up bankrupt or with a property on your hands you really don't want for the next decade. Very risky plan but fair dos if you are a real risk taker and study the market intensely.

 

(2) You don't care about 'topping up' this investment and in 25 years you will own the flat outright and your tenants will have 'helped' you to buy it. Fair enough.

 

Problem - However for the time, money, effort and hassle involved in doing this over 25 years it is not exactly the best or easiest investment. Far better just firing the time and effort into a mixture of shares/low risk investments/savings. You will more than likely have more at the end of the 25

years than a comparable 'property investment' is worth. I am sure the hassle involved will be a lot less as well.

 

I will let you know in 25 years if I am right or not. I have recently got into spread betting with a small amount of my savings. Holy **** that is one risky and scary way of 'investing' (Gambling) your cash !!

 

Interesting however you are basing the scenario above on 1 property, say for instance you have 20 properties, bought 5 years ago, example in gorgie for 65k each all rented out and covering your mortgage payments.

 

All worth today around 120k, say in 10 years time they are worth 150k each, but they were all on interest only.

 

so you sell 10 off them, and use the capital gain too pay off the other 10 so no mortgages on ten off them, then you get an income of 700 pcm times ten per month = 7000 per month.

 

is that enough to retire on ?

 

you got me worried now spread betting ?

 

i know someone who is in the above situation and he appears too be happy, i know another guy who has completed the cycle as he started ten years ago, he now lives in spain, he texts me most days too ask how the weather is ****.

[coppercrutch]

Speak too tammyb1985 he knows about self cert mortgages, i also know a broker i could introduce you too who could help you, and he is a solid Jambo, hes on holiday the now , back next week, he is the **** who sent me the Dalgleish text, he is a wizard when it comes to mortgages though.

 

I take it for WillieJamieson they would be wanting something like a 20% deposit or thereabouts ? With the way things are going his 7% could become a lot closer to that by April if he is lucky.

[coppercrutch]

Interesting however you are basing the scenario above on 1 property, say for instance you have 20 properties, bought 5 years ago, example in gorgie for 65k each all rented out and covering your mortgage payments.

 

All worth today around 120k, say in 10 years time they are worth 150k each, but they were all on interest only.

 

so you sell 10 off them, and use the capital gain too pay off the other 10 so no mortgages on ten off them, then you get an income of 700 pcm times ten per month = 7000 per month.

 

is that enough to retire on ?

 

you got me worried now spread betting ?

 

i know someone who is in the above situation and he appears too be happy, i know another guy who has completed the cycle as he started ten years ago, he now lives in spain, he texts me most days too ask how the weather is ****.

 

I reckon the above scenario is entirely possible However you would need to get in at exactly the right time. You would also need to get out at exactly the right time. It is highly leveraged investment. You are basically using borrowed money to make you money. Great when it goes right. Bankruptcy when it goes wrong.

 

Take the above example and replace it with someone who bought all these flats 2 years ago. Bankruptcy guaranteed. Also if you were buying all these 5 years ago you would need some serious deposit !!

 

I don't think there is anything wrong with people who know what they are doing investing in property and taking a bit of a risk. However in the last few years half of this country has thought they could become a millionaire by buying and selling houses to each other. Never going to work.

 

If you are thinking about getting into it make sure you have a positive yield and your investment is bringing in cash. Then the capital gains aspect of it (Which is really out of your hands) can be left in the background and taken advantage of when the time is right. Last 2 property cycles in the UK have gone for 18 years. 14 years up, 4 years down. This one is shaping up exactly the same so far.

 

However there is the chance this boom was so big the bust may last for a Japanese style length of time - 20+ years.

 

PS - As for spread betting don't ask.

[Munch]

I reckon the above scenario is entirely possible However you would need to get in at exactly the right time. You would also need to get out at exactly the right time. It is highly leveraged investment. You are basically using borrowed money to make you money. Great when it goes right. Bankruptcy when it goes wrong.

 

Take the above example and replace it with someone who bought all these flats 2 years ago. Bankruptcy guaranteed. Also if you were buying all these 5 years ago you would need some serious deposit !!

 

I don't think there is anything wrong with people who know what they are doing investing in property and taking a bit of a risk. However in the last few years half of this country has thought they could become a millionaire by buying and selling houses to each other. Never going to work.

 

If you are thinking about getting into it make sure you have a positive yield and your investment is bringing in cash. Then the capital gains aspect of it (Which is really out of your hands) can be left in the background and taken advantage of when the time is right. Last 2 property cycles in the UK have gone for 18 years. 14 years up, 4 years down. This one is shaping up exactly the same so far.

 

However there is the chance this boom was so big the bust may last for a Japanese style length of time - 20+ years.

 

PS - As for spread betting don't ask.

 

Timing is the key, rght now the market is going down, when will it stops going down that is the question.

The key is too buy when the market has bottomed out, same with shares, the problem is when will it bottom out, 1 year, 2 years 5 years.

 

 

The economy is going backwards, mis managed by Labour, next election SNP will wipe the floor in Scotland, Tories will wipe the floor down South, Lib Dems will get more seats than Labour who as a party will be finished.

 

So we will be sailing into new waters in 2 years time, hopefully by then things will start too improve.

 

As you predict the Poles should be gone by then, so will Re max . and half the other estate agents in the city.

 

And property prices, God only knows.

 

One possible scenario, you make a fortune from the spread betting, buy out Vlad, and we all live happily ever after.

[coppercrutch]

Timing is the key, rght now the market is going down, when will it stops going down that is the question.

The key is too buy when the market has bottomed out, same with shares, the problem is when will it bottom out, 1 year, 2 years 5 years.

 

 

The economy is going backwards, mis managed by Labour, next election SNP will wipe the floor in Scotland, Tories will wipe the floor down South, Lib Dems will get more seats than Labour who as a party will be finished.

 

So we will be sailing into new waters in 2 years time, hopefully by then things will start too improve.

 

As you predict the Poles should be gone by then, so will Re max . and half the other estate agents in the city.

 

And property prices, God only knows.

 

One possible scenario, you make a fortune from the spread betting, buy out Vlad, and we all live happily ever after.

 

Agree with most of that. Especially Labour. They are a joke. You know I actually almost believed all the 'Stable economy' nonsense that Brown used to spout. It was a delusion. A very nice delusion but one that was always going to end in tears. Brainwashing of a sort really. Once I started to look into the details it was clear it was all bull.

 

Oh how this country is ****ed !!

 

And as for the fortune on my spreadbetting I would not bank on it. Down ?300in only one day so far. Think I may have second thoughts....

[theshed]

on the subject of mortgages..my present deal runs out next month "tracker rate with the halifax" can someone tell me the best place to look to see what deals are on offer...cheers

[Munch]

on the subject of mortgages..my present deal runs out next month "tracker rate with the halifax" can someone tell me the best place to look to see what deals are on offer...cheers

 

Roddy is back on monday, he is an Financial Advisor, he will help you with this 0131 665 7771.

 

Solid Jambo as well.

[coppercrutch]

JamboaRBarry - you had any thought about how this sort of thing will affect the rental market ?

 

http://www.strathclydehomes.com/rent2buy/

 

Builders unable to sell homes. Desperate for any income. Letting them out en masse.

 

If you look at the terms and conditions not a bad deal depending on the price of course. However you are locked in for 18 months and I have no doubt there are penalties if you wish to leave early. I reckon this sort of thing could add to the rental supply in a large way.

[Munch]

Agree with most of that. Especially Labour. They are a joke. You know I actually almost believed all the 'Stable economy' nonsense that Brown used to spout. It was a delusion. A very nice delusion but one that was always going to end in tears. Brainwashing of a sort really. Once I started to look into the details it was clear it was all bull.

 

Oh how this country is ****ed !!

 

And as for the fortune on my spreadbetting I would not bank on it. Down ?300in only one day so far. Think I may have second thoughts....

 

Brown fiddles as Rome burns, there is an interesting article in the Express today.

A way too solve all the mess, it sugests the government buy up all the empty homes in the country, approx half a million off them, and help out the builders buy buying up all there excess unsold stock.

And helping first time buyers by means off a shared equity scheme, this in turn gets the builders started again, creates jobs, boosts the housing market, increases revenus to the government with incresed stamp duty revenues, its simple but all there a blue print on how to solve the crunch.

 

Its written by some guy ,who noticed they had stopped building a house next to his home.

 

Yet Brown and Darling who get paid fortunes to solve this mess , what are they doing diddle squat, When his party is wiped out at the next election, and SNP Wipe the floor in Scotland, id say we are on the way to independance.

 

Does that mean we get too keep our oil ? now theres a thought.

 

Im still not sure about the spread betting mate, it sounds dodgy:107years:

[footieman]

I thought I would stoke the fire with this article from todays Evening Hibee,

 

THE Queen has become the latest Edinburgh property owner to suffer at the hands of the credit crunch after her portfolio in the city saw millions of pounds wiped off its value.

A combined ?13.9 million has been shaved off the value of the three properties in the Capital owned and managed on behalf of the Queen by the Crown Estate.

 

Property values have reduced by 14.5 per cent at the three buildings since this time last year.

 

But property experts say that the Crown Estate properties will have fallen less than other buildings in Edinburgh city centre. The average retail or office building in the city is thought to be worth nearly a fifth less than this time last year.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/One39s-not-immune-from-the.4274725.jp

[coppercrutch]

Brown fiddles as Rome burns, there is an interesting article in the Express today.

A way too solve all the mess, it sugests the government buy up all the empty homes in the country, approx half a million off them, and help out the builders buy buying up all there excess unsold stock.

And helping first time buyers by means off a shared equity scheme, this in turn gets the builders started again, creates jobs, boosts the housing market, increases revenus to the government with incresed stamp duty revenues, its simple but all there a blue print on how to solve the crunch.

 

Its written by some guy ,who noticed they had stopped building a house next to his home.

 

Yet Brown and Darling who get paid fortunes to solve this mess , what are they doing diddle squat, When his party is wiped out at the next election, and SNP Wipe the floor in Scotland, id say we are on the way to independance.

 

Does that mean we get too keep our oil ? now theres a thought.

 

Im still not sure about the spread betting mate, it sounds dodgy:107years:

 

Only problem is the Government is bust !! And also why should the builders be bailed out by the taxpayer ? Just think of all those who have bought in these estates at sky high prices being told they will soon be living in a council estate ! (No offence to council estates in general). In theory the idea is not a bad one but we should not have got into this state in the first place re. council housing (Both Tories and Labour to blame for the mess)

 

As for half a million empty homes. What about the lack of supply we have been told over and over again for the last 5 years ? Seems that supply has appeared almost overnight.

 

500,000 houses at say 100k each = 50 billion pounds. Not likely for a Government that is down on its knees.

 

The best thing that can happen is for the market to return to sanity by its own steam. It will be painful for a fair few but in the end better for the country as a whole. Sensible mortgage ratios should be mandatory(3.5X salary) and a minimum of 5% deposits. If this had not been changed 4 years ago this mess could largely have been avoided.

 

Don't get me started on shared equity schemes...

 

Why pay 150k for a 70% share of a flat, when 150k would have bought you 100% 4 years ago, and will buy you 100% in a few years from now.

 

Disasterous plan and I hope very few people go for it. If you can't afford a house you cant afford a house !! Wait till prices come down or try and earn more money, don't touch shared equity - it is generally a scam.

 

PS. Yes spreadbetting is seriously dodgy. I have worked that out in only 2 days. You require balls of absolute steel !! I am either going to be up by about a grand or down by the same. That could happen within the space of 2 months or 2 hours.

[Munch]

I thought I would stoke the fire with this article from todays Evening Hibee,

 

THE Queen has become the latest Edinburgh property owner to suffer at the hands of the credit crunch after her portfolio in the city saw millions of pounds wiped off its value.

A combined ?13.9 million has been shaved off the value of the three properties in the Capital owned and managed on behalf of the Queen by the Crown Estate.

 

Property values have reduced by 14.5 per cent at the three buildings since this time last year.

 

But property experts say that the Crown Estate properties will have fallen less than other buildings in Edinburgh city centre. The average retail or office building in the city is thought to be worth nearly a fifth less than this time last year.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/One39s-not-immune-from-the.4274725.jp

 

.

[Munch]

I thought I would stoke the fire with this article from todays Evening Hibee,

 

THE Queen has become the latest Edinburgh property owner to suffer at the hands of the credit crunch after her portfolio in the city saw millions of pounds wiped off its value.

A combined ?13.9 million has been shaved off the value of the three properties in the Capital owned and managed on behalf of the Queen by the Crown Estate.

 

Property values have reduced by 14.5 per cent at the three buildings since this time last year.

 

But property experts say that the Crown Estate properties will have fallen less than other buildings in Edinburgh city centre. The average retail or office building in the city is thought to be worth nearly a fifth less than this time last year.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/One39s-not-immune-from-the.4274725.jp

 

Commercial property is a whole different ball game, the values are worked out on the strength of the businesses who rent them, and the length off the lease, totally different from Residential property.

[Munch]

Only problem is the Government is bust !! And also why should the builders be bailed out by the taxpayer ? Just think of all those who have bought in these estates at sky high prices being told they will soon be living in a council estate ! (No offence to council estates in general). In theory the idea is not a bad one but we should not have got into this state in the first place re. council housing (Both Tories and Labour to blame for the mess)

 

As for half a million empty homes. What about the lack of supply we have been told over and over again for the last 5 years ? Seems that supply has appeared almost overnight.

 

500,000 houses at say 100k each = 50 billion pounds. Not likely for a Government that is down on its knees.

 

The best thing that can happen is for the market to return to sanity by its own steam. It will be painful for a fair few but in the end better for the country as a whole. Sensible mortgage ratios should be mandatory(3.5X salary) and a minimum of 5% deposits. If this had not been changed 4 years ago this mess could largely have been avoided.

 

Don't get me started on shared equity schemes...

 

Why pay 150k for a 70% share of a flat, when 150k would have bought you 100% 4 years ago, and will buy you 100% in a few years from now.

 

Disasterous plan and I hope very few people go for it. If you can't afford a house you cant afford a house !! Wait till prices come down or try and earn more money, don't touch shared equity - it is generally a scam.

 

PS. Yes spreadbetting is seriously dodgy. I have worked that out in only 2 days. You require balls of absolute steel !! I am either going to be up by about a grand or down by the same. That could happen within the space of 2 months or 2 hours.

 

Yip the government is Bust, ideal time for an independant Scotland, roll on the next election.

It will be interesting too see how Labour fare in the Glasgow East By Election, 13500 majority held presently.

Is it actually possible they could loose a 13500 majority ? Brown would be hounded out if they loose that one.

[coppercrutch]

Yip the government is Bust, ideal time for an independant Scotland, roll on the next election.

It will be interesting too see how Labour fare in the Glasgow East By Election, 13500 majority held presently.

Is it actually possible they could loose a 13500 majority ? Brown would be hounded out if they loose that one.

 

Seems we agree on a good few things, Independence not being one of them !! As for Labour it is looking tight for Glasgow East, If they lose that I don't think Brown would have any choice but to **** off.

 

Interesting what you say about commercial property and how it's value is worked out. I have much less knowledge of that area myself. Good to know a little more.

[Munch]

Seems we agree on a good few things, Independence not being one of them !! As for Labour it is looking tight for Glasgow East, If they lose that I don't think Brown would have any choice but to **** off.

 

Interesting what you say about commercial property and how it's value is worked out. I have much less knowledge of that area myself. Good to know a little more.

 

Yes the surveyors look at the covennant more than the bricks and mortar when valueing commercial properties.

 

Example if you owned a shop on the high street and it was vacant possession it would be worth very little, however say you got Marks and Spencers to lease it from you on a 25 year, full insure and repair lease, at a good price, it would be worth a fortune.

 

Wallace Mercer made fortunes from this type off investments, god rest his soul.

 

On independance im not really bothered that much about it, however its clear Labour have not a clue, tories have no chance in Scotland, so it only leaves SNP, if they win a hugh amount of seats then im sure they will try to seperate us from England.

 

It would be interesting how our own free standing economy would manage, could it be managed any worse than what Brown has done.

 

oh and i hope that labour loose glasgow east, just too see fat face browns face, when he gets booted into touch. and take Darling with him, another goat.

[Brandt]

Speak too tammyb1985 he knows about self cert mortgages, i also know a broker i could introduce you too who could help you, and he is a solid Jambo, hes on holiday the now , back next week, he is the **** who sent me the Dalgleish text, he is a wizard when it comes to mortgages though.

 

Thanks, i actually asked about self certified mortages but the i would have to produce a huge deposit which i dont have. That was echoed by an ex RBS mortage adviser and another KB'er as well as an independant mortgage advisor.

This time last year, you would have all been invited to my flat warming

The flat i wanted was offers over ?199,000, but now i noticed its now fixed price at ?239,000. Fingers crossed its still there in April! You never know!

Thanks again for your advice.

Stewart

[Munch]

Thanks, i actually asked about self certified mortages but the i would have to produce a huge deposit which i dont have. That was echoed by an ex RBS mortage adviser and another KB'er as well as an independant mortgage advisor.

This time last year, you would have all been invited to my flat warming

The flat i wanted was offers over ?199,000, but now i noticed its now fixed price at ?239,000. Fingers crossed its still there in April! You never know!

Thanks again for your advice.

Stewart

 

You can still get 95% main residence mortgages mate.

[tammyb1985]

You can still get 95% main residence mortgages mate.

 

 

Loadsa decent deals(considering the rest of the market at the mo) on 95% just remember to factor in the probable Higher Lending Charge if you are borrowing more than 90%

 

When i was talking about 10% yields i was talking as in what you would want to get make it a sound investment, but yeah its not that easy now.

[coppercrutch]

Any of you see Channel 4 news tonight

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/media-video.php?video=7

 

Had a discussion on house prices given todays new HBOS figures (Down 2% month on month)

 

3 pundits. The smallest fall was predicted by the economist from Savills estate agents (No surprise there).

 

They predicted 25% nominal falls over the next 2 years. Which equates to roughly 35% in real terms. This was from an estate agency..

 

The other two economists are going for between 35% and 40% nominal falls.

 

I will attach the link later when they have it for viewing online.

 

I am beginning to think my predictions may be a little soft.

[siegementality]

I have to say I agree with CC. I've never wanted to live in Gorgie/Leith or equivelant. I dont like the built up smoggy areas, I've never even looked at Gorgie with view to buying properties but I do know some of the areas further out quite well and prices are still way over what they should be in relative terms.

 

In what world are 2 bed council flats worth ?125k? It's madness! I've just been to view a new build flat valued at ?165k which had a kitchen you'd struggle to bake a cake in.

 

Although there is obviously a trade off in new builds in terms of space you have to say in the past 10 years or so houses have been getting smaller and prices have been getting bigger. It can't realistically continue, while demand is also dropping.

 

WTF!!!

[Boaby Ewing]

Coppercrutch, I'm being nosey here, but mind telling us what you're spread betting on?

[coppercrutch]

Coppercrutch, I'm being nosey here, but mind telling us what you're spread betting on?

 

Some banks and builders. Doh - I should have started months ago when I knew what was coming !! Could have made a fortune. Always the same story eh..

 

I still reckon they have further to fall. Not as if they are going to get any good news in the next few months !!!

 

Who knows though - shares seem to do random things at random times. I suppose that is why it is ****ing so hard to make money on it !! If I make anything on these bets I will be delighted.

[Munch]

Any of you see Channel 4 news tonight

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/media-video.php?video=7

 

Had a discussion on house prices given todays new HBOS figures (Down 2% month on month)

 

3 pundits. The smallest fall was predicted by the economist from Savills estate agents (No surprise there).

 

They predicted 25% nominal falls over the next 2 years. Which equates to roughly 35% in real terms. This was from an estate agency..

 

The other two economists are going for between 35% and 40% nominal falls.

 

I will attach the link later when they have it for viewing online.

 

I am beginning to think my predictions may be a little soft.

 

We are all doomed.

[Therapist]

If you live in Edinburgh you'll be fine. Overall, prices will be flat at worst. Edinburgh doesn't do boom and bust unlike SE England. I know Coppercrutch will be gutted but this is a fact.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/House-sales--slump-but.4279542.jp

[neobis]

If you live in Edinburgh you'll be fine. Overall, prices will be flat at worst. Edinburgh doesn't do boom and bust unlike SE England. I know Coppercrutch will be gutted but this is a fact.

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/House-sales--slump-but.4279542.jp

 

That's right, because David Marshall, ESPC business analyst says so.

 

Clearly he has a massive and biased view point in this .......

[Therapist]

You're probably right. I'm sure the ESPC data is completely unreliable and unrepresentative.

[Munch]

You're probably right. I'm sure the ESPC data is completely unreliable and unrepresentative.

 

The data on the channel 4 news debate is based on England and Wales, the data From the ESPC is Relative too our local market.

 

Sales volumes are way down, prices are not going down, Scottish people are too thrifty, they would rather withdraw the property from the market , than slash prices.

[Therapist]

The data on the channel 4 news debate is based on England and Wales, the data From the ESPC is Relative too our local market.

 

Yes, and if you read my point you'll see it was our local market I was talking about.

[Munch]

Yes, and if you read my point you'll see it was our local market I was talking about.

 

I know i was agreeing with you and backing up your point.