Jamboy81 Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Whats everyone's thoughts on the property market at the moment. Is not a good time to buy, or is it just a case that if you buy for a low price now in 2 or 3 years it will still be a dead market, or you could even lose money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Whats everyone's thoughts on the property market at the moment. Is not a good time to buy, or is it just a case that if you buy for a low price now in 2 or 3 years it will still be a dead market, or you could even lose money? Uh oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Whats everyone's thoughts on the property market at the moment. Is not a good time to buy, or is it just a case that if you buy for a low price now in 2 or 3 years it will still be a dead market, or you could even lose money? Peebles reaches the shed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Grimes Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 i work part-time for a viewing company so have watched the market a bit over the last few months. also get some info on figures & trends from the bank i work at. there's definitely some great fixed price deals available just now - a lot of buy-to-letters have been getting jumpy and trying to sell quickly. realistically in Edinburgh you're looking at 1-3% increase on prices for the rest of the year. 2009 could see a drop if we have a full scale recession but not by too much. if you're planning on buying & not moving for 5 years then its very much a buyers' market just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chad Sexington Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Whats everyone's thoughts on the property market at the moment. Is not a good time to buy, or is it just a case that if you buy for a low price now in 2 or 3 years it will still be a dead market, or you could even lose money? If you ask my advice, I would say you should think about buying outside Edinburgh. I hear Auckland's nice this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic Username Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Whats everyone's thoughts on the property market at the moment. Is not a good time to buy, or is it just a case that if you buy for a low price now in 2 or 3 years it will still be a dead market, or you could even lose money? I'm sure if you rock into the dole office with your teenage pregnant lover, both decked in full Hibs gear they'll sort you out with a lovely little council flat somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Lyon Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Where's Coppercrutch when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I was actually waiting for this thread to appear for the last few months. The very fact it has appeared tells a lot. My views on this is there for all to see in the estate agent thread. I think to buy in Edinburgh just now you would have to be clinically insane. A 'great deal' just now could look not so great in 6 months time. As for rises of 1-3% I think that is being extrememly optimistic. What has happened since the peak of last July ? -Northern Rock bust. -B & B almost bankrupt. -Massive increase in oil price. -Inflation gaining speed. -Increase in cost of living. -Economy on the rocks. -UK about to enter recession. -Stories about house prices and the economy going down the tubes everywhere. -Number of mortgage products decimated. -Cost of mortgages soaring. -Amount required as deposit soaring. -First time buyer market decimated. -Number of properties available to buy more than double. -Number of people wanting to buy decimated. -Offers over gradually being taken over by fixed price. -End of the 'bidding wars' pushing up prices in blind auctions. -Britain's biggest Builders essentially bankrupt (Barrats, Wimpey) -Many British banks almost bankrupt. -House repossesions on the rise. -Flats in Edinburgh going to auction as no-one will buy them on the open market. -Personal bankruptcies on the rise. And yet even after all this house prices in Edinburgh are going to cost MORE next year than they did last year... Sure..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Therapist Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I was actually waiting for this thread to appear for the last few months. You surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsmak Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Whats everyone's thoughts on the property market at the moment. Is not a good time to buy, or is it just a case that if you buy for a low price now in 2 or 3 years it will still be a dead market, or you could even lose money? read this one http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/showthread.php?t=7092 takes a few pages to get into it... But, its em,, a lot of reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I was actually waiting for this thread to appear for the last few months. The very fact it has appeared tells a lot. My views on this is there for all to see in the estate agent thread. I think to buy in Edinburgh just now you would have to be clinically insane. A 'great deal' just now could look not so great in 6 months time. As for rises of 1-3% I think that is being extrememly optimistic. What has happened since the peak of last July ? -Northern Rock bust. -B & B almost bankrupt. -Massive increase in oil price. -Inflation gaining speed. -Increase in cost of living. -Economy on the rocks. -UK about to enter recession. -Stories about house prices and the economy going down the tubes everywhere. -Number of mortgage products decimated. -Cost of mortgages soaring. -Amount required as deposit soaring. -First time buyer market decimated. -Number of properties available to buy more than double. -Number of people wanting to buy decimated. -Offers over gradually being taken over by fixed price. -End of the 'bidding wars' pushing up prices in blind auctions. -Britain's biggest Builders essentially bankrupt (Barrats, Wimpey) -Many British banks almost bankrupt. -House repossesions on the rise. -Flats in Edinburgh going to auction as no-one will buy them on the open market. -Personal bankruptcies on the rise. And yet even after all this house prices in Edinburgh are going to cost MORE next year than they did last year... Sure..................... Here we go, hold on tight folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Pay off debt. Save up money. Buy a house in 3-4 years. Simple plans are always the best. Of course this is all dependent on you having a job and the UK economy not going into complete meltdown. However that is something we don't really have much influence over so what can you do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I P Knightley Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Pay off debt. Save up money. Buy a house in 3-4 years. Simple plans are always the best. Of course this is all dependent on you having a job and the UK economy not going into complete meltdown. However that is something we don't really have much influence over so what can you do... What if you have no or next to no debt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 What if you have no or next to no debt? Individual circumstances will of course be different. However if you are wanting to buy a house for the best value, and want to wait, then 2012 looks to be the time to do it. For a first time buyer though buying a house now could become the worst mistake of their entire life. For some people with a big wad of cash they may want to get a 'decent' deal now and don't really care if the value of their home goes down. Fair enough I can see why some people would want to do that. Avoid the faffing around of renting and such. I reckon prices are going down over the next 4 years by about 30-50% in real terms. Of course those fellows at Merril Lynch reckon it could be a lot, lot worse.. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/08/nborrow708.xml "The pessimistic forecast came as one of the City?s leading banks warned that it could take 20 years for the British housing market to recover. In a note to clients Mark Hake, an analyst at Merrill Lynch said: "[Compared] with the 1990 correction... it looks significantly worse, with house prices falling faster and further and very little recovery in real terms expected over 20 years." He added: "House prices are expected to be below their August 2007 peak in a further 10 years' time." And some people on this site call my predictions 'pie in the sky' or 'armageddon like'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I P Knightley Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 And some people on this site call my predictions 'armageddon like'.... Well, you have to admit they're certainly no' the cheeriest!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Well, you have to admit they're certainly no' the cheeriest!! True !! However for a first time buyer willing to wait for a few years, save up some money, and who has a job - these predictions are pretty good news actually. As for the availablity of jobs and the wider economy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamboy81 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 It isn't really practial for me to move back to my parents for that length of time. Although i have sold my property and got a decent price for it my strategy was to buy somewhere else cheap (i.e. someone who was having difficulty selling) on the basis that when the market picked up again the value would also rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 It isn't really practial for me to move back to my parents for that length of time. Although i have sold my property and got a decent price for it my strategy was to buy somewhere else cheap (i.e. someone who was having difficulty selling) on the basis that when the market picked up again the value would also rise. Not a bad plan. You get a good amount for your place ? You could of course rent for the next few years. Put your money somewhere very safe. As long as your capital lump sum increases with interest, and house prices fall - you are quids in. Twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I P Knightley Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 It isn't really practial for me to move back to my parents for that length of time. Although i have sold my property and got a decent price for it my strategy was to buy somewhere else cheap (i.e. someone who was having difficulty selling) on the basis that when the market picked up again the value would also rise. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamboy81 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Not a bad plan. You get a good amount for your place ? You could of course rent for the next few years. Put your money somewhere very safe. As long as your capital lump sum increases with interest, and house prices fall - you are quids in. Twice. I got a decent price and made a profit. In light of your predictions you could say it was a great deal for me! Renting isn't really an option i dont think, as i'm thinking of saving around ?1000 per month to top up my deposit. I couldnt afford to do that and rent as well. My view of the situation is that you should only buy if it's somewhere you are very happy with and will live in for the next 10 years or so. The only other scenario that would make it worthwhile is if you can get somewhere so cheap that effectively any price drop wouldn't cost you money. Looking at Fixed Prices of around 150k - 160k you would say stealing one for around 25k less would be unlikely to leave you too much out of pocket in the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I got a decent price and made a profit. In light of your predictions you could say it was a great deal for me! Renting isn't really an option i dont think, as i'm thinking of saving around ?1000 per month to top up my deposit. I couldnt afford to do that and rent as well. My view of the situation is that you should only buy if it's somewhere you are very happy with and will live in for the next 10 years or so. The only other scenario that would make it worthwhile is if you can get somewhere so cheap that effectively any price drop wouldn't cost you money. Looking at Fixed Prices of around 150k - 160k you would say stealing one for around 25k less would be unlikely to leave you too much out of pocket in the longer term. Unless you have a monster deposit (?) your mortgage costs will be much more than your rental costs. So it is going to cost you more to pay your mortgage then pay rent. Therefore, how are you going to save up more when paying your mortgage compared to renting ? Have I missed something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamboy81 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Unless you have a monster deposit (?) your mortgage costs will be much more than your rental costs. So it is going to cost you more to pay your mortgage then pay rent. Therefore, how are you going to save up more when paying your mortgage compared to renting ? Have I missed something.. Yes - I'll be living at home (with parents) and paying out nothing apart from my mobile bill and money for petrol etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chad Sexington Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Yes - I'll be living at home (with parents) and paying out nothing apart from my mobile bill and money for petrol etc. I have a new mental image of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Yes - I'll be living at home (with parents) and paying out nothing apart from my mobile bill and money for petrol etc. I see !! So you can handle it for the short term but not much longer. I have been playing the saving at home game but I am getting chucked out soon. So unfair. I still think once you do move out and decide to buy a place you would be better off renting for a few years instead. Save the difference between renting and paying a mortgage and buy in a few years with a much bigger deposit. Sorted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I have a new mental image of you. No that is me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griclesfield Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 its certainly not a good time to be selling as you stand to lose alot of cash. i sold in Feb time and made ?30K in 12 months on the property .... the lad who bought it thought he got a bargain ... but there is no dancer i would of paid ?130K for my gaff ... no danger. - this was in edinburgh aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamboy81 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 its certainly not a good time to be selling as you stand to lose alot of cash. i sold in Feb time and made ?30K in 12 months on the property .... the lad who bought it thought he got a bargain ... but there is no dancer i would of paid ?130K for my gaff ... no danger. - this was in edinburgh aswell. You say it's a bad time to sell, but if you're thinking of moving in the next few years then now is probably the best time to sell because if we go into recession house prices will fall even further. I recently sold my place and made a small profit on it which wasn't bad considering i only bought it 2 years ago. But it was a first time buyers propery - i never planned to stay there long term. I think if you're thinking of buying now then you could get a good deal if you think long term becuase even a price drop over the next few years will eventually stabalise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Yes - I'll be living at home (with parents) and paying out nothing apart from my mobile bill and money for petrol etc. Ah, your going to live like Coppercrutch now then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neobis Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 You say it's a bad time to sell, but if you're thinking of moving in the next few years then now is probably the best time to sell because if we go into recession house prices will fall even further. I recently sold my place and made a small profit on it which wasn't bad considering i only bought it 2 years ago. But it was a first time buyers propery - i never planned to stay there long term. I think if you're thinking of buying now then you could get a good deal if you think long term becuase even a price drop over the next few years will eventually stabalise. Over you can hold off for a while and get an even better deal if you are buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Yes - I'll be living at home (with parents) and paying out nothing apart from my mobile bill and money for petrol etc. Best advice if you intend to buy, is to avoid new builds, or new build re sales, stick to Traditional Build Properties, and go for Solid areas like StockBridge, Polwarth, Morningside. Look for fixed price properties around 180k and offer your 160k, and ensure you buy under Valuation. Its for living in remember, not making money on, however if you buy at 20k under valuation, id say you will be okay in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Ah, your going to live like Coppercrutch now then If only, I am being kicked out to the real World !!! BTW for anyone who is still thinking there is not a property crash in Edinburgh right now: STEP 1: Go to http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPages/HomePage.aspx STEP 2: Under top right 'Search for properties' enter Gorgie under location STEP 3: Click on 'Search' STEP 4: You will now see 57 properties. Have a look through them. Have a look at how many are at a fixed price. Have a look at how many are at a 'reduced fixed price' or a special 'cashback offer'. STEP 5: Remember how quickly and for how much these same flats were selling for only 12 months ago... STEP 6: Realise that all these people telling you that the market is 'softening', 'easing' or 'slowing' are either (a)In denial or (b)In denial. STEP 7: Realise the market is crashing. STEP 8: Don't even think about buying a house for at least the next 2 years unless you don't give a toss about paying over the odds. STEP 9: Realise people have simply been brainwashed into thinking that a one bed flat in Gorgie is a 'good deal' at 110k. Think about it. Think about the money involved. Think about the interest involved. Think about what you are getting for your money. You will soon get a hold of your senses and realise that a one bed flat in Gorgie is good value in todays money at more like 50-70k. The banks and builders have been taking the mick out of us little people for the last 5 years. Now they are in trouble they are begging to be bailed out by the same little people. It is quite a disgusting situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamboy81 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 I have to say I agree with CC. I've never wanted to live in Gorgie/Leith or equivelant. I dont like the built up smoggy areas, I've never even looked at Gorgie with view to buying properties but I do know some of the areas further out quite well and prices are still way over what they should be in relative terms. In what world are 2 bed council flats worth ?125k? It's madness! I've just been to view a new build flat valued at ?165k which had a kitchen you'd struggle to bake a cake in. Although there is obviously a trade off in new builds in terms of space you have to say in the past 10 years or so houses have been getting smaller and prices have been getting bigger. It can't realistically continue, while demand is also dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 If only, I am being kicked out to the real World !!! BTW for anyone who is still thinking there is not a property crash in Edinburgh right now: STEP 1: Go to http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPages/HomePage.aspx STEP 2: Under top right 'Search for properties' enter Gorgie under location STEP 3: Click on 'Search' STEP 4: You will now see 57 properties. Have a look through them. Have a look at how many are at a fixed price. Have a look at how many are at a 'reduced fixed price' or a special 'cashback offer'. STEP 5: Remember how quickly and for how much these same flats were selling for only 12 months ago... STEP 6: Realise that all these people telling you that the market is 'softening', 'easing' or 'slowing' are either (a)In denial or (b)In denial. STEP 7: Realise the market is crashing. STEP 8: Don't even think about buying a house for at least the next 2 years unless you don't give a toss about paying over the odds. STEP 9: Realise people have simply been brainwashed into thinking that a one bed flat in Gorgie is a 'good deal' at 110k. Think about it. Think about the money involved. Think about the interest involved. Think about what you are getting for your money. You will soon get a hold of your senses and realise that a one bed flat in Gorgie is good value in todays money at more like 50-70k. The banks and builders have been taking the mick out of us little people for the last 5 years. Now they are in trouble they are begging to be bailed out by the same little people. It is quite a disgusting situation. You are right in a lot off what you are saying, i can confirm that 2 bed flats at Western Harbour, that were sold 3 years ago off plan for 235k , have just been sold at Auction in Glasgow for 150k, 60% off there value lost. New build , and new build re sales are to be avoided like the plague, these huge losses in value are affecting the over all balance of property prices in the city. However, solid traditional build, flats/houses/ in good areas are holding up better, one bed flats in Gorgie were selling at 125k a year ago, are more like 100k now, although you will struggle to find one at this price. The builders and the developers that have made mints out off this market for years have headed for the hills, so have the buy too let investors, and 1st time buyers are thin on the ground due to mortgage availability, and high interest rates/deposits. IMO There will be not much new properties being built for a long time, this will lead too a shortage of property in possibly 10 years time, as this could last for 5 years. What happens in 10 years, well compare it too the slump in the building trade in the eighties, no apprentices were taken on for years, 10 years later not enough tradesmen, guys charging 50 quid an hour for labour, the longer this slump goes on, the bigger the gain in the long run for those who see it through. Just my slant on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 You are right in a lot off what you are saying, i can confirm that 2 bed flats at Western Harbour, that were sold 3 years ago off plan for 235k , have just been sold at Auction in Glasgow for 150k, 60% off there value lost. New build , and new build re sales are to be avoided like the plague, these huge losses in value are affecting the over all balance of property prices in the city. However, solid traditional build, flats/houses/ in good areas are holding up better, one bed flats in Gorgie were selling at 125k a year ago, are more like 100k now, although you will struggle to find one at this price. The builders and the developers that have made mints out off this market for years have headed for the hills, so have the buy too let investors, and 1st time buyers are thin on the ground due to mortgage availability, and high interest rates/deposits. IMO There will be not much new properties being built for a long time, this will lead too a shortage of property in possibly 10 years time, as this could last for 5 years. What happens in 10 years, well compare it too the slump in the building trade in the eighties, no apprentices were taken on for years, 10 years later not enough tradesmen, guys charging 50 quid an hour for labour, the longer this slump goes on, the bigger the gain in the long run for those who see it through. Just my slant on it. I would not even buy one of those 2 beds in Granton for 80k. They will be down that low pretty soon. Why would you want to live in a half finished development in Granton that has little chance of being finished in the next decade.... I do agree that nicer flats in better areas will fare better. Makes sense. However I still think most of these are also massively overpriced, but not quite to the same extent. As for the tradesmen that is an interesting point. I have been hearing for the last few years about everyone getting into a trade and how that is the way to go. I think that is a nonsense. There will clearly always be a demand for good workmen. However how many have been employed on 'property development' fantasies or new build BTL rabbit hutches in the past few years ? A large proportion I imagine. Now this has all stopped all the experienced tradesmen will surely scrape by for the next 5 years. As for all those new to the job ? I can imagine they will be ejected with no big fuss. The people getting 'into a trade' at the right time were doing it in 1998-2000ish. Once everyone tells you there is money to be made it is already too late. Exactly the same with property. Thing with this crash is it looks like it is going to be the big one. I think the minimum we are looking at is 2 years. However more and more I am hearing about 3,4,5 years or much more. Another thing to remember is all the Poles that have come over in the past few years. They will be heading home just as quick sharp as they arrived. Estimated to be about 30,000 in the Lothians just now. Probably 99.9% of them rent places. If even a third of them head home that could result in a lot of empty flats that are looking for tenants, or to be sold. Even if we assume they share 2 to a room and have on average 2 bed flats you could be talking about 2000+ empty properties to let (Or for sale) in addition to everything we have already - simply due to a number of the Polish going home. I think the whole idea that we have a 'property shortage' is about to be turned on it's head. Rents down. Property prices down. Overall a good thing actually for the majority. Just a shame it takes a mess like this to get the desired result. Could have been averted years ago. Greed is to blame. Nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 I would not even buy one of those 2 beds in Granton for 80k. They will be down that low pretty soon. Why would you want to live in a half finished development in Granton that has little chance of being finished in the next decade.... I do agree that nicer flats in better areas will fare better. Makes sense. However I still think most of these are also massively overpriced, but not quite to the same extent. As for the tradesmen that is an interesting point. I have been hearing for the last few years about everyone getting into a trade and how that is the way to go. I think that is a nonsense. There will clearly always be a demand for good workmen. However how many have been employed on 'property development' fantasies or new build BTL rabbit hutches in the past few years ? A large proportion I imagine. Now this has all stopped all the experienced tradesmen will surely scrape by for the next 5 years. As for all those new to the job ? I can imagine they will be ejected with no big fuss. The people getting 'into a trade' at the right time were doing it in 1998-2000ish. Once everyone tells you there is money to be made it is already too late. Exactly the same with property. Thing with this crash is it looks like it is going to be the big one. I think the minimum we are looking at is 2 years. However more and more I am hearing about 3,4,5 years or much more. Another thing to remember is all the Poles that have come over in the past few years. They will be heading home just as quick sharp as they arrived. Estimated to be about 30,000 in the Lothians just now. Probably 99.9% of them rent places. If even a third of them head home that could result in a lot of empty flats that are looking for tenants, or to be sold. Even if we assume they share 2 to a room and have on average 2 bed flats you could be talking about 2000+ empty properties to let (Or for sale) in addition to everything we have already - simply due to a number of the Polish going home. I think the whole idea that we have a 'property shortage' is about to be turned on it's head. Rents down. Property prices down. Overall a good thing actually for the majority. Just a shame it takes a mess like this to get the desired result. Could have been averted years ago. Greed is to blame. Nothing more, nothing less. Estate Agents have been responsable for driving up property prices, Look around there is a Remax office on every street Corner, and because they are scrapping for there commision on every sale, the tell the owners to expect a crazy price for there property. These guys will be the first to dissapear. Intersting point about the Poles, you would expect them to go home but im not sure on that one. In terms of a glut of properties to rent, i dont see this in the long term, every year more people leave home, get married and need somewhere to stay, there are only 3 options, Buy, Rent, or a council house. Buying is difficult due to mortgages not being available, and prices are too high compared too earnings. A council house not really very desireable, and like hens teeth, which leaves the rental sector. Consider that there is not a brick being built by builders, and this trend will continue for as you say 3,4, maybee 5 years, which is my guess. There will in my opinion be a shortage of properties to rent, this will force rent prices up, and because prices of properties will have dropped, i predict lots of wealthy landlords snapping up properties too rent out. This will start too push prices up again, and the rich get bloody richer. Again im no expert just a dafty but thats my slant on it. Id be intersted to hear your comments on this. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Estate Agents have been responsable for driving up property prices, Look around there is a Remax office on every street Corner, and because they are scrapping for there commision on every sale, the tell the owners to expect a crazy price for there property.These guys will be the first to dissapear. Intersting point about the Poles, you would expect them to go home but im not sure on that one. In terms of a glut of properties to rent, i dont see this in the long term, every year more people leave home, get married and need somewhere to stay, there are only 3 options, Buy, Rent, or a council house. Buying is difficult due to mortgages not being available, and prices are too high compared too earnings. A council house not really very desireable, and like hens teeth, which leaves the rental sector. Consider that there is not a brick being built by builders, and this trend will continue for as you say 3,4, maybee 5 years, which is my guess. There will in my opinion be a shortage of properties to rent, this will force rent prices up, and because prices of properties will have dropped, i predict lots of wealthy landlords snapping up properties too rent out. This will start too push prices up again, and the rich get bloody richer. Again im no expert just a dafty but thats my slant on it. Id be intersted to hear your comments on this. Cheers. It is all guesswork in the end but here is my slant on things. ESTATE AGENTS - Estate Agents have been partly responsible for this mess, along with the general public and the Banks. However Estate Agents will actually end up pushing the prices down just like they pushed them up. They do rely on commision after all. So it is not in their interests to have a house sitting there for 3 years that is 'worth' a million pounds. They get Zip until it is sold. They would much rather it sold for 800k and they got some commision rather than none. They need turnover at any price. The higher the better of course but beggars can't be choosers. If there are any EA's on this site your knowledge would be handy. POLES - There was an article just on the BBC yesterday about the highlands. Of the 2000 Eastern Europeans that registered for NI numbers this year over a quarter have gone home already. If we take Poland for example their currency has gained 15% compared to the pound in the last year alone. At the same time the average wage in Poland has risen by 15%. So the whole point of coming here has lost almost a third of its 'attraction' in less than a year. That alone will easily persuade a huge number of them to go home. It would for me !! Then on top of that you have the fact our countries economy is going down the pan and theirs is looking stronger and stronger. Exactly why would they want to stay here.. RENTS There is a common misconception about rents shooting up. The only problem is they can't. Rents are constrained by how much people can pay on a monthly basis. So if people wages dont shoot up rents cant shoot up. It doesnt matter how much the landlord wants for a place. If no-one can pay it they will get nothing. (The only reason house prices have shot up so much is because lenders have loaned out silly amounts of money - in exactly the same way the only way rents can shoot up is if employers pay out silly amounts in wage rises - unlikely ) I also know of the 'get out plan' that many estate agents are selling to people who cant sell thier places just now. "Just rent it out instead". They are also being told that rents are rising so just rent it out for 6 months until this all blows over. Two problems in that idea. (1)This is not going to 'blow over' for about 3-5 years at least. (2) If all of these people rent out their places the supply of rental property will increase and so the price may well go down. The economy is in a mess. People are going to lose their jobs. Bankruptcies will soar. Amongst all this background just how exactly will the average person pay MORE for their monthly rent than they do just now ? This is the situation landlords want to happen. In reality however it is highly unlikely unless we get huge wage inflation. I do agree that rich landlords will scoop up cheap properties to rent out in the future. No doubt about that. However they will be waiting a good while to do this. No point buying just now. The problem we have is a multitude of amatuer 'landlords' who are nothing more than speculators. They do not have the choice of 'waiting to see what happens'. They will either rent out their places for whatever they can or sell them for whatever they can. In conclusion: -In the past 5 years anything that has been touched, affected or in any way linked to property has turned to gold. -In the next 5 years anything that has been touched, affected or in any way linked to property will turn to donkey dung. I may of course be completely wrong. However everything is panning out as expected so far. In fact everything is panning out far quicker than most people ever thought was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 POLES - There was an article just on the BBC yesterday about the highlands. Of the 2000 Eastern Europeans that registered for NI numbers this year over a quarter have gone home already. If we take Poland for example their currency has gained 15% compared to the pound in the last year alone. At the same time the average wage in Poland has risen by 15%. So the whole point of coming here has lost almost a third of its 'attraction' in less than a year. Maybe it's all a big ploy by our illustrious leader at No10 to rid the country of Poles and free up more jobs and housing. Well, you do like a conspiracy theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 It is all guesswork in the end but here is my slant on things. ESTATE AGENTS - Estate Agents have been partly responsible for this mess, along with the general public and the Banks. However Estate Agents will actually end up pushing the prices down just like they pushed them up. They do rely on commision after all. So it is not in their interests to have a house sitting there for 3 years that is 'worth' a million pounds. They get Zip until it is sold. They would much rather it sold for 800k and they got some commision rather than none. They need turnover at any price. The higher the better of course but beggars can't be choosers. If there are any EA's on this site your knowledge would be handy. POLES - There was an article just on the BBC yesterday about the highlands. Of the 2000 Eastern Europeans that registered for NI numbers this year over a quarter have gone home already. If we take Poland for example their currency has gained 15% compared to the pound in the last year alone. At the same time the average wage in Poland has risen by 15%. So the whole point of coming here has lost almost a third of its 'attraction' in less than a year. That alone will easily persuade a huge number of them to go home. It would for me !! Then on top of that you have the fact our countries economy is going down the pan and theirs is looking stronger and stronger. Exactly why would they want to stay here.. RENTS There is a common misconception about rents shooting up. The only problem is they can't. Rents are constrained by how much people can pay on a monthly basis. So if people wages dont shoot up rents cant shoot up. It doesnt matter how much the landlord wants for a place. If no-one can pay it they will get nothing. (The only reason house prices have shot up so much is because lenders have loaned out silly amounts of money - in exactly the same way the only way rents can shoot up is if employers pay out silly amounts in wage rises - unlikely ) I also know of the 'get out plan' that many estate agents are selling to people who cant sell thier places just now. "Just rent it out instead". They are also being told that rents are rising so just rent it out for 6 months until this all blows over. Two problems in that idea. (1)This is not going to 'blow over' for about 3-5 years at least. (2) If all of these people rent out their places the supply of rental property will increase and so the price may well go down. The economy is in a mess. People are going to lose their jobs. Bankruptcies will soar. Amongst all this background just how exactly will the average person pay MORE for their monthly rent than they do just now ? This is the situation landlords want to happen. In reality however it is highly unlikely unless we get huge wage inflation. I do agree that rich landlords will scoop up cheap properties to rent out in the future. No doubt about that. However they will be waiting a good while to do this. No point buying just now. The problem we have is a multitude of amatuer 'landlords' who are nothing more than speculators. They do not have the choice of 'waiting to see what happens'. They will either rent out their places for whatever they can or sell them for whatever they can. In conclusion: -In the past 5 years anything that has been touched, affected or in any way linked to property has turned to gold. -In the next 5 years anything that has been touched, affected or in any way linked to property will turn to donkey dung. I may of course be completely wrong. However everything is panning out as expected so far. In fact everything is panning out far quicker than most people ever thought was possible. Very interesting points you raise, makes a lot off sense, i also read the Article about a third of the Poles dissapearing from the Highlands, so i suspect you are spot on in terms off them bailing out. ( you cant blame them really) The country is going to rat S--T mate, it has been mis managed for too long. What you say about everything involved/linked to property in the last five years turning to Gold is also spot on. When you think off it, almost everything one way or another has some link to property, Estate agents, Solicitors,Banks, Financial Institutions, Builders, developers, Landlords,Removal companies,Surveyors,B&Q,Double glazing, home improvements, furniture,electrical goods,Dry rot companies, etc etc etc. All these companies are now suffering big time, there will be pay offs, companies closing down, it will be Armagedon for the next few years. After the storm, who knows, but there are always winners (HMFC)when there are loosers ( Hobos) As the economy picks up after the Storm, prices will pick up again, and for the smart investor, who buys when the market has bottomed out, there will be money to make. Despite all this i come back to my previous point, there are only 3 options. 1. Buy. 2. Rent 3. Council House. So unless everyone decides to stay with there parents for ever more, there will always be a demand for quality properties at a good price, the other factor i have seen lately, is parents financing deposits for there kids to buy, and also being Guarantors for them. People who bought 15 20 years ago and are mortgage free , have massive amounts of equity due too the house price capital growth, so the ones who have made from it, are using the money made to fuel the fire again. I also speak to letting agents a lot and they are telling me that they cannot even get the sign up, as soon as they go on the internet there are 3 or 4 people wanting to view them. A good quality 1 bed flat in Gorgie is now renting for 550 pcm, and i was told that one agency rented a 1 bed flat in Bruntsfield for 750 pcm. Rents are on the up at the moment, and supply at present is short, however if all the poles go home then this could change. New builds are where the big price drops are happening, the builders are giving all sorts of discounts and offers as they get more desperate. Another thing that is going on ( i heard this when i visited my Laywer yesterday) a guy had agreed to buy a flat for 130k from a builder in Edin, he was even in a missive for it, and due to complete on friday. He called and said he was reducing his offer by 20k, as that was now the market price, all he stood to loose was his minimal outlays, because the builders missives were a mess. So the builder agreed, desperate for a sale, Any way its fascinating watching all this. Your Comments Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Maybe it's all a big ploy by our illustrious leader at No10 to rid the country of Poles and free up more jobs and housing. Well, you do like a conspiracy theory Our illustrious leader at no 10 fiddles as Rome burns, still he has a nice rent free house to stay in, gets driven around in a roller, flies around the world eating banquets, and tells us to not waste food. He is the captain of the Titanic sailing us full steam ahead, but he is having a ball. And he has got 2 more years before he hits the iceberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Our illustrious leader at no 10 fiddles as Rome burns, still he has a nice rent free house to stay in, gets driven around in a roller, flies around the world eating banquets, and tells us to not waste food. He is the captain of the Titanic sailing us full steam ahead, but he is having a ball. And he has got 2 more years before he hits the iceberg. This part worries me the most, he's a fat waste of space and should be surgically removed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 This part worries me the most, he's a fat waste of space and should be surgically removed! Agreed, and what about his side kick "Darling" you know these 2 remind me of Blackadder the one about the 1st World War. The general at the HQ (Brown) would come up with a plan which would be like this. The last thing the huns would expect us too do is all charge out into no mans land in broad daylight, and because its the last thing they would expect us to do, thats exactly what we will do. What do you think Darling ? A Great plan yes thats the last thing anyone would expect us to do, brilliant idea. A pair of fools. running the country, getting, fat, and having a ball, and making a pigs ear of it in the process. And i thought the pieman was bad, these 2 should be hung from a lampost.:mad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coco Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Very interesting points you raise, makes a lot off sense, i also read the Article about a third of the Poles dissapearing from the Highlands, so i suspect you are spot on in terms off them bailing out. ( you cant blame them really) The country is going to rat S--T mate, it has been mis managed for too long. What you say about everything involved/linked to property in the last five years turning to Gold is also spot on. When you think off it, almost everything one way or another has some link to property, Estate agents, Solicitors,Banks, Financial Institutions, Builders, developers, Landlords,Removal companies,Surveyors,B&Q,Double glazing, home improvements, furniture,electrical goods,Dry rot companies, etc etc etc. All these companies are now suffering big time, there will be pay offs, companies closing down, it will be Armagedon for the next few years. After the storm, who knows, but there are always winners (HMFC)when there are loosers ( Hobos) As the economy picks up after the Storm, prices will pick up again, and for the smart investor, who buys when the market has bottomed out, there will be money to make. Despite all this i come back to my previous point, there are only 3 options. 1. Buy. 2. Rent 3. Council House. So unless everyone decides to stay with there parents for ever more, there will always be a demand for quality properties at a good price, the other factor i have seen lately, is parents financing deposits for there kids to buy, and also being Guarantors for them. People who bought 15 20 years ago and are mortgage free , have massive amounts of equity due too the house price capital growth, so the ones who have made from it, are using the money made to fuel the fire again. I also speak to letting agents a lot and they are telling me that they cannot even get the sign up, as soon as they go on the internet there are 3 or 4 people wanting to view them. A good quality 1 bed flat in Gorgie is now renting for 550 pcm, and i was told that one agency rented a 1 bed flat in Bruntsfield for 750 pcm. Rents are on the up at the moment, and supply at present is short, however if all the poles go home then this could change. New builds are where the big price drops are happening, the builders are giving all sorts of discounts and offers as they get more desperate. Another thing that is going on ( i heard this when i visited my Laywer yesterday) a guy had agreed to buy a flat for 130k from a builder in Edin, he was even in a missive for it, and due to complete on friday. He called and said he was reducing his offer by 20k, as that was now the market price, all he stood to loose was his minimal outlays, because the builders missives were a mess. So the builder agreed, desperate for a sale, Any way its fascinating watching all this. Your Comments Please. If the flat in Bruntsfield is being rented out for ?750 per month - given a price of ?200k there for the 1 bedroom flat - that is a basic yield of 4.5% before tax and assuming no 'gaps' between rentals. Not very attractive when you can get that lending to the Government tax free. Particularly when there is a good chance that capital value will fall - unless that rental goes up from ?750 per month ... how many people do you think would want to pay ?1k per month to rent a 1 bedroom flat in Bruntsfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 If the flat in Bruntsfield is being rented out for ?750 per month - given a price of ?200k there for the 1 bedroom flat - that is a basic yield of 4.5% before tax and assuming no 'gaps' between rentals. Not very attractive when you can get that lending to the Government tax free. Particularly when there is a good chance that capital value will fall - unless that rental goes up from ?750 per month ... how many people do you think would want to pay ?1k per month to rent a 1 bedroom flat in Bruntsfield? 1 bed flats in Bruntsfield are not 200k, the guy paid 135k for it last year which makes it a 6.6% yeald, id assume he would have got an 85% BTL Mortgage, so on that basis he is in for circa 115k, giving him a 7.8% yeald.Properties like this, in sold residential areas at that price are unlikely to drop in price, flat line possibly then increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Very interesting points you raise, makes a lot off sense, i also read the Article about a third of the Poles dissapearing from the Highlands, so i suspect you are spot on in terms off them bailing out. ( you cant blame them really) The country is going to rat S--T mate, it has been mis managed for too long. What you say about everything involved/linked to property in the last five years turning to Gold is also spot on. When you think off it, almost everything one way or another has some link to property, Estate agents, Solicitors,Banks, Financial Institutions, Builders, developers, Landlords,Removal companies,Surveyors,B&Q,Double glazing, home improvements, furniture,electrical goods,Dry rot companies, etc etc etc. All these companies are now suffering big time, there will be pay offs, companies closing down, it will be Armagedon for the next few years. After the storm, who knows, but there are always winners (HMFC)when there are loosers ( Hobos) As the economy picks up after the Storm, prices will pick up again, and for the smart investor, who buys when the market has bottomed out, there will be money to make. Despite all this i come back to my previous point, there are only 3 options. 1. Buy. 2. Rent 3. Council House. So unless everyone decides to stay with there parents for ever more, there will always be a demand for quality properties at a good price, the other factor i have seen lately, is parents financing deposits for there kids to buy, and also being Guarantors for them. People who bought 15 20 years ago and are mortgage free , have massive amounts of equity due too the house price capital growth, so the ones who have made from it, are using the money made to fuel the fire again. I also speak to letting agents a lot and they are telling me that they cannot even get the sign up, as soon as they go on the internet there are 3 or 4 people wanting to view them. A good quality 1 bed flat in Gorgie is now renting for 550 pcm, and i was told that one agency rented a 1 bed flat in Bruntsfield for 750 pcm. Rents are on the up at the moment, and supply at present is short, however if all the poles go home then this could change. New builds are where the big price drops are happening, the builders are giving all sorts of discounts and offers as they get more desperate. Another thing that is going on ( i heard this when i visited my Laywer yesterday) a guy had agreed to buy a flat for 130k from a builder in Edin, he was even in a missive for it, and due to complete on friday. He called and said he was reducing his offer by 20k, as that was now the market price, all he stood to loose was his minimal outlays, because the builders missives were a mess. So the builder agreed, desperate for a sale, Any way its fascinating watching all this. Your Comments Please. Lots of interesting points. (1) Everything linked to property. You are so right. I think we will very quickly find out just how much of this country's 'boom' has been directly as a result of over inflated property prices. I imagine far far too much. Just think of everyone that has released equity from their houses ? All those people going out to buy new cars, expensive handbags, holidays in the Caribbean. They will now have to actually WORK for the privilige. At the same time as paying back the 'equity release' with ever increasing interest rates. Too many people believed an 'equity release' was free money. In fact it was simply more debt. (2) Smart investors buying at the bottom. Spot on. By the looks of it this will be 2011/12. If past cycles are anything to go by. (3) Rents. I am surprised by your examples of rents. I have been doing a search on citylets and letting web for about 4 months now. Numbers and prices have changed very little. I am sure there are nice flats renting out for silly money. I am also sure there are not so bad flats sitting there for ages. I just cant see the average going up. How can it People in Edinburgh are just about to have a lot less money in their pocket than they are used to. I simply do not think there is a scope for rental increases. However time will tell and it will be interesting. I am looking for somewhere in a few weeks so I will let you know !! I also think a lot more people will move back in with parents, into spare rooms with pals etc.. than you first think. Remember there are millions of spare rooms in the UK that could be let out to lodgers, mates etc.. for relatively small amounts. This will help those who have bought places they cannot really afford, and also provide cheap accomodation for people not wanting to fork out to rent their own place. We have had it too easy in this country for too long. I can see landlords trying to up rents en masse, and perhaps it working for a short while. In the end though reality will bite, it always will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coco Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 1 bed flats in Bruntsfield are not 200k, the guy paid 135k for it last year which makes it a 6.6% yeald, id assume he would have got an 85% BTL Mortgage, so on that basis he is in for circa 115k, giving him a 7.8% yeald.Properties like this, in sold residential areas at that price are unlikely to drop in price, flat line possibly then increase. Hmmm it must be lower Bruntsfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 1 bed flats in Bruntsfield are not 200k, the guy paid 135k for it last year which makes it a 6.6% yeald, id assume he would have got an 85% BTL Mortgage, so on that basis he is in for circa 115k, giving him a 7.8% yeald.Properties like this, in sold residential areas at that price are unlikely to drop in price, flat line possibly then increase. By a quick search it looks like he has done very well to get ?750 for a one bed in Bruntsfield. Also the cheapest 1 bed flat at the moment in Bruntsfiled is 188k !!! Prices have not gone up by that much, if at all in the last year. Have you seen the guys detailed figures for yourself ? Is it not possible this person is trying desperately not to admit they are losing money on their investment... Both their figures seem pretty unrealistic.... Anyway for the yield you are working out I assume you are including the factor that most people forget ? Namely how much interest his 15% deposit would get him if simply left sitting in a 1 year bond with zero hassle and very little risk ? ?18k ish. 7% bond. After tax approx ?850 depending on tax band. Roughly ?70 per month So you have to take that amount off the monthly 'profit' to get a true yield. (Unless of course this is factored in already) I personally dont think that anyone who has got into BTL in Edinburgh in the last 3 years without a monster deposit is making ANY sort of yield. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 1 bed flats in Bruntsfield are not 200k, the guy paid 135k for it last year which makes it a 6.6% yeald, id assume he would have got an 85% BTL Mortgage, so on that basis he is in for circa 115k, giving him a 7.8% yeald.Properties like this, in sold residential areas at that price are unlikely to drop in price, flat line possibly then increase. Not poking at your figures or anything just don't seem to add up for me. I have had a look at BTL mortgages and for around 115k you are looking at ?850+ per month for capital and interest over 20 years. That is looking at a serious loss even if he can get ?750 per month rent. Now maybe this guy got a fixed low deal last year and is paying less than that. Still that will be coming to an end in the near future which is going to hurt !! I have just heard a lot of people talkng about yields and profit from BTL, but when you look into the detail the picture usually changes.... I cant see hoe anyone getting into BTL after 2003ish is making, or going to make any profit at all. Of course if you are getting into it simply to own somewhere in 20 years and dont care if you have to help with the payments I can understand. I just think it is not a hassle free sort of investment for the returns you may get in 20 years time !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 By a quick search it looks like he has done very well to get ?750 for a one bed in Bruntsfield. Also the cheapest 1 bed flat at the moment in Bruntsfiled is 188k !!! Prices have not gone up by that much, if at all in the last year. Have you seen the guys detailed figures for yourself ? Is it not possible this person is trying desperately not to admit they are losing money on their investment... Both their figures seem pretty unrealistic.... Anyway for the yield you are working out I assume you are including the factor that most people forget ? Namely how much interest his 15% deposit would get him if simply left sitting in a 1 year bond with zero hassle and very little risk ? ?18k ish. 7% bond. After tax approx ?850 depending on tax band. Roughly ?70 per month So you have to take that amount off the monthly 'profit' to get a true yield. (Unless of course this is factored in already) I personally dont think that anyone who has got into BTL in Edinburgh in the last 3 years without a monster deposit is making ANY sort of yield. Cheers. Intersting article in business section of the Evening news today, David Murrays nephew has paid a 6 figure sum for a Dalry bassed letting agency. Makes you think that Mr Murray sees a growth in this sector post Crunch, my opinion is that this is the only area off the market that will grow. Fair point about the empty rooms,etc, however i just cant see everyone wanting to do that, the having your own space factor, and privacy, is too important an aspect, especially if you are working and have a decent pay. Some parents will be glad to get shot of there grown up children so they can get space as well, hence the re investment off there capital gain to assist in the purchase or renting of property. The city has a strong student population so the rental market remains strong there, also a lot of parents have bought properties for there kids who go to Uni, and then rent out rooms to there friends. These properties are all managed by letting agents, and have HMO Licences, there are a lot off new rental companies that have sprung up in the last few years, and i can see a lot of them being bought out by the bigger ones as time moves on. So too sum up, i think the rental market will thrive/as the sales market reduces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munch Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Not poking at your figures or anything just don't seem to add up for me. I have had a look at BTL mortgages and for around 115k you are looking at ?850+ per month for capital and interest over 20 years. That is looking at a serious loss even if he can get ?750 per month rent. Now maybe this guy got a fixed low deal last year and is paying less than that. Still that will be coming to an end in the near future which is going to hurt !! I have just heard a lot of people talkng about yields and profit from BTL, but when you look into the detail the picture usually changes.... I cant see hoe anyone getting into BTL after 2003ish is making, or going to make any profit at all. Of course if you are getting into it simply to own somewhere in 20 years and dont care if you have to help with the payments I can understand. I just think it is not a hassle free sort of investment for the returns you may get in 20 years time !! I can see where you are coming from with this, i have checked out the figures i can confirm the flat was nearer Polwarth than Bruntsfield, the rental at 750 pcm, is confirmed, i got that info from the letting agent, who was amazed it rented for that amount. The guy is on an interest only BTL Mortgage 2 year fixed rate, i dont know his payment amount though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandt Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 I was actually waiting for this thread to appear for the last few months. The very fact it has appeared tells a lot. My views on this is there for all to see in the estate agent thread. I think to buy in Edinburgh just now you would have to be clinically insane. A 'great deal' just now could look not so great in 6 months time. As for rises of 1-3% I think that is being extrememly optimistic. What has happened since the peak of last July ? -Northern Rock bust. -B & B almost bankrupt. -Massive increase in oil price. -Inflation gaining speed. -Increase in cost of living. -Economy on the rocks. -UK about to enter recession. -Stories about house prices and the economy going down the tubes everywhere. -Number of mortgage products decimated. -Cost of mortgages soaring. -Amount required as deposit soaring. -First time buyer market decimated. -Number of properties available to buy more than double. -Number of people wanting to buy decimated. -Offers over gradually being taken over by fixed price. -End of the 'bidding wars' pushing up prices in blind auctions. -Britain's biggest Builders essentially bankrupt (Barrats, Wimpey) -Many British banks almost bankrupt. -House repossesions on the rise. -Flats in Edinburgh going to auction as no-one will buy them on the open market. -Personal bankruptcies on the rise. And yet even after all this house prices in Edinburgh are going to cost MORE next year than they did last year... Sure..................... My accountant forcasted my business to gross ?155k this year. The bank knocked me back for a mortgage (had about 7% for a deposit). They said it was because it was my first year of business (7 months into it) as well as the climate. Fair doos Going to wait til April then take my end of year stuff to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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