Coronavirus pandemic

[weehammy]

51 minutes ago, Bongo 1874 said:

I'm not meaning you mate, your a good guy my anger is aimed at van tam not you, how can he even dare come out with that does he not know how other infectious diseases work? Honestly talk about taking the shine of a good day for humanity. 

Interesting that up here BBC Reporting Glasgow keep wheeling out that Professor Bauld who is a BEHAVIOURAL scientist.

Good name though!

[Lone Striker]

3 hours ago, Brighton Jambo said:

An interesting scenario to ponder.  Imagine if the number of people who won’t take the virus means that some level of restrictions has to remain permanently in place.  Things could get pretty divisive with those wanting a return to normal challenging those who won’t take the vaccine.  
 

p.s.  yes I did get this thought from watching Jonathan penalty shoot out Van Tam.  

Isn't it basically the same scenario as the flu jab .........  it's not intended for everyone to get a flu jab, just the "priority/vulnerable" groups, and how likely is it that the take-up in those groups is actually 100% ?     So loads of folk walking around with no vaccine-induced protection, while  transmission of the flu virus within communities seems to be acceptable &  normal.

 

From what I understand from the briefings, it will take at least 3 months to vaccinate all the priority/vulnerable groups for Covid - 100% will be invited and at the end of it the authorities will know who hasn't appeared. 

 

It may be a tiny percentage .....  or maybe not.  Some of them will be for valid reasons, like fear of interference with essential medicines folk are already taking.  Others will be either anti-vaxxers or just forgetful/lazy folk.  And then you've got the non-priority/non-vulnerable folk (will they even be  invited ?).

 

The statisticians and public health experts will have to assess how big the unvaccinated groups are and what to do about it.   Giving out the instruction to millions of vaccinated folk that they still need to abide by restrictions (even just masks and 2m distancing) because X thousand folk refused or forgot is   not going to be popular !! 

[Carl Fredrickson]

3 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

You rang?

 

 

Just taking a break, sorry. The thread was doing my head in, to be honest.

 

But here you go, the latest colour extravaganza (with extra columns showing the values over the last few days).

 

Note that there is currently increased testing in five specific hotspots in Scotland, of which Alloa is one, which partially explains for example the elevated ranking of Clackmannanshire (although in my opinion they should have been placed in Tier 4 anyway). Also note that there is increased testing of students starting this week which will no doubt filter through to the stats.

 

There are quite a few take-homes from the chart. I wasn't surprised that the SG decided not to change any tiers yesterday because the technical issues a couple of days ago temporarily mucked up their data. However, Dumfries and Galloway were extremely unlucky not to be moved down to tier 1, imo. Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire are still high after the Portlethen food factory outbreak but now have another week to recover. North Ayrshire should probably be moved up to Tier 4 but is a good example of how the Tier 4's have worked, with both East and South Ayrshire having lesser rates than North Ayrshire now.

 

		7-day per-100,000 cases
Council Area	Tier	Today	Yesterday			Start of Tier 4’s			30 Nov	29 Nov	28 Nov	27 Nov	26 Nov	25 Nov
Renfrewshire	4	206	194	+12		260	-54		195	218	223	224	238	241
Clackmannanshire	3	192	155	+37		165	+27		140	153	130	115	120	95
South Lanarkshire	4	172	174	-2		233	-61		179	202	198	213	206	201
North Lanarkshire	4	170	176	-6		235	-65		169	182	194	202	194	194
East Renfrewshire	4	169	155	+14		195	-26		149	155	172	170	170	171
Glasgow City	4	160	155	+5		235	-75		158	174	189	190	199	198
North Ayrshire	3	140	128	+12		124	+16		127	132	131	128	131	109
West Lothian	4	132	127	+5		193	-61		128	131	139	140	135	161
Stirling	4	124	123	+1		210	-86		132	149	140	141	155	138
East Dunbartonshire	4	121	117	+4		161	-40		110	114	135	133	130	117
East Ayrshire	4	118	115	+3		152	-34		120	137	132	138	146	142
South Ayrshire	4	114	125	-11		153	-39		125	131	123	122	130	129
Fife	3	107	99	+8		116	-9		96	105	104	102	102	99
Perth and Kinross	3	97	93	+4		116	-19		95	103	90	95	95	91
West Dunbartonshire	4	94	89	+5		142	-48		85	107	106	108	123	124
Dundee City	3	92	92	0		102	-10		97	104	109	109	105	100
Inverclyde	3	90	87	+3		99	-9		96	96	107	112	111	86
Aberdeenshire	2	87	93	-6		64	+23		94	85	90	83	78	78
Midlothian	3	86	65	+21		101	-15		71	84	82	88	91	88
Argyll and Bute	2	77	77	0		31	+46		83	61	61	54	48	43
Aberdeen City	2	71	90	-19		51	+20		92	101	90	91	89	81
Edinburgh City	3	68	69	-1		84	-16		74	74	82	87	87	80
Angus	3	62	62	0		88	-26		65	71	77	78	79	81
Falkirk	3	59	58	+1		85	-26		49	47	54	58	58	59
East Lothian	2	49	48	+1		48	+1		51	59	65	57	55	61
Scottish Borders	2	33	33	0		74	-41		29	33	40	45	50	57
Na h-Eileanan Siar	1	22	22	0		0	+22		11	11	11	11	4	0
Dumfries and Galloway	2	21	21	0		34	-13		19	23	25	30	28	31
Highland	1	18	19	-1		19	-1		19	16	17	15	15	15
Moray	1	11	9	+2		25	-14		8	8	8	10	9	15
Orkney Islands	1	9	9	0		4	+5		4	4	4	4	4	4
Shetland Islands	1	9	17	-8		13	-4		17	17	17	17	17	9
(Scotland)		106	105	+1		135	-29		105	116	118	119	120	118

 

Thanks Red - very much appreciated. I am hoping the Midlothian spike may be related to the issue they had with figures on Monday. Hoping to get down to tier 2 soon.

[Taffin]

19 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

At risk of what? Death? 
 

what about a month off work? or a month not being able to do all the things you’ve missed in lockdown?  
 

I was speaking to someone last night who has only just recovered enough to get back to working from home, September 24th she tested positive. Still can’t smell or taste anything. She’s under 40, not overweight, healthy, she said “you don’t want to catch this”. Rest of her family all had it and were thankfully not very ill at all. 
 

As it stands under 50s aren’t on the list anyway. 

 

So what was your question about in the first place?

 

I said it was good news for the many who need/want it, which are generally in the earlier tranches of rollout. Should I have said good news for all of us who aren't on the list and aren't going to get it whether we want to or not too?

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

That makes it look better.  The Public Health Scotland data is a different, but that could be due to them counting based on sample date, where as TT is using the return date. 

And that doesn't include the 24 cases returned today.  

 

No, it doesn't. I don't know Midlothian well, but if it has any college or university campuses then that might explain today's figure since student testing results will start hitting the stats. In saying that though, I don't know whether a lateral flow positive test counts towards the case figures or whether they will wait for a backup PCR test.

 

In general, I've learned to largely ignore daily case figures which can vary quite markedly, and look instead at the longer trends. On that basis, Midlothian is looking fairly consistent over the last couple of weeks. Hopefully we'll see it get back down into Tier 2 territory before too long.

[Enzo Chiefo]

9 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

At risk of what? Death? 
 

what about a month off work? or a month not being able to do all the things you’ve missed in lockdown?  
 

I was speaking to someone last night who has only just recovered enough to get back to working from home, September 24th she tested positive. Still can’t smell or taste anything. She’s under 40, not overweight, healthy, she said “you don’t want to catch this”. Rest of her family all had it and were thankfully not very ill at all. 
 

As it stands under 50s aren’t on the list anyway. 

Risk is present in everything we do. The majority of people will not even be susceptible to getting Covid, far less becoming ill with it. Once the most vulnerable get vaccinated life will return to normal. There will slways be examples of younger people who have had bad reactions or worse, much the same as there is with myriad diseases. 12 under 35s die suddenly each week in the UK of undiagnosed heart conditions.  We don't ban under 35s from taking part in sport as a consequence.  The reaction to Covid this year has been over the top in many ways but the fear of overwhelming the NHS was the main driver. With what we know now, the thinking should have changed and a different course plotted. However,  the good news today will allow life to return normal pretty soon and Covid, whether weaker or not  , will not be any more of a threat to the vast majority of the population than any other disease or risk.

[CavySlaveJambo]

Just now, redjambo said:

 

No, it doesn't. I don't know Midlothian well, but if it has any college or university campuses then that might explain today's figure since student testing results will start hitting the stats. In saying that though, I don't know whether a lateral flow positive test counts towards the case figures or whether they will wait for a backup PCR test.

 

In general, I've learned to largely ignore daily case figures which can vary quite markedly, and look instead at the longer trends. On that basis, Midlothian is looking fairly consistent over the last couple of weeks. Hopefully we'll see it get back down into Tier 2 territory before too long.

Lateral flow tests are not meant to count towards the daily statistics, the PCR test does. 

 

I really need to do that.  I'm surprised as well as a total per 100k, that they don't look at average cases per day either.  Because that will show if there are days with massive outlier stats. 

[redjambo]

6 minutes ago, Carl Fredrickson said:

 

Thanks Red - very much appreciated. I am hoping the Midlothian spike may be related to the issue they had with figures on Monday. Hoping to get down to tier 2 soon.

 

No problem, Carl. The spike in the 7-day figures was because today's 24 cases supplanted the 4 cases from a week ago. The week-old figure that will be supplanted tomorrow was 21 cases, so hopefully tomorrow will see a reduction in the 7-day figure. Even 7-day figures have spikes and troughs. That's one of the reasons, imo, that the SG delayed making tier-related decisions after the reporting issue they had - they need to make decisions with accurate up-to-date information and that issue made a temporary hole in the data.

[Carl Fredrickson]

6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

No problem, Carl. The spike in the 7-day figures was because today's 24 cases supplanted the 4 cases from a week ago. The week-old figure that will be supplanted tomorrow was 21 cases, so hopefully tomorrow will see a reduction in the 7-day figure. Even 7-day figures have spikes and troughs. That's one of the reasons, imo, that the SG delayed making tier-related decisions after the reporting issue they had - they need to make decisions with accurate up-to-date information and that issue made a temporary hole in the data.

 

I was thinking something similar but you said it a lot better than I can! Many thanks

[Brian Dundas]

20 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

So what was your question about in the first place?

 

I said it was good news for the many who need/want it, which are generally in the earlier tranches of rollout. Should I have said good news for all of us who aren't on the list and aren't going to get it whether we want to or not too?

Indifference encourages people not to get the vaccine. We should all have the attitude to take the vaccine when it is offered to us. 

[redjambo]

5 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

Lateral flow tests are not meant to count towards the daily statistics, the PCR test does. 

 

I really need to do that.  I'm surprised as well as a total per 100k, that they don't look at average cases per day either.  Because that will show if there are days with massive outlier stats. 

 

Ah, I didn't know that about the lateral flow tests not counting towards the stats. Where did you see that, out of interest? From a statistical point of view, I would be uneasy about that if there isn't an additional PCR test carried out for positive lateral flow tests which does count towards the stats.

 

I hope the the local teams will indeed be monitoring the reasons for daily variations so that they can pinpoint clusters. That's how the Portlethen food factory outbreak was treated so quickly, as far as I'm aware. Grampian NHS realised that there were multiple cases from the plant and offered tests to all the workers there. The stats appear to indicate that it did spread to more than the workforce though, although how much it has spread outside the workers' households only the authorities will know. I would have thought that given how much food, and particularly meat, processing plants have featured in large Covid outbreaks, they should be testing their workers regularly, and that one positive test should automatically trigger testing of all employees. With lateral flow tests, hopefully this will now become the norm.

[Boy Daniel]

@redjambo

Thanks, I know what you mean this thread can mess with your head. 
I appreciate your charts and info are very helpful. 

[redjambo]

5 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

@redjambo

Thanks, I know what you mean this thread can mess with your head. 
I appreciate your charts and info are very helpful. 

 

No problem, BD. It just annoys me in general to see people placed in danger or at risk due to the actions of others, and when those actions are worn by some on here like a badge of honour then it really grinds my gears. Add that to all the politically-minded Pavlovian dogs and their slavering reactions to *almost every single* piece of news, I guess I'll just have to be very selective as to what I read and digest.

[Brian Dundas]

6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

No problem, BD. It just annoys me in general to see people placed in danger or at risk due to the actions of others, and when those actions are worn by some on here like a badge of honour then it really grinds my gears. Add that to all the politically-minded Pavlovian dogs and their slavering reactions to *almost every single* piece of news, I guess I'll just have to be very selective as to what I read and digest.

Thread will hopefully be obsolete soon. 

[redjambo]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

Thread will hopefully be obsolete soon. 

 

 

And not a minute too soon that we put the kibosh on Covid. It has been a pretty awful and stressful year all-round for virtually everyone.

[jonesy]

4 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

No problem, BD. It just annoys me in general to see people placed in danger or at risk due to the actions of others, and when those actions are worn by some on here like a badge of honour then it really grinds my gears. Add that to all the politically-minded Pavlovian dogs and their slavering reactions to *almost every single* piece of news, I guess I'll just have to be very selective as to what I read and digest.

 

My ears suddenly started burning, doctor. No idea why. 

 

Anyway, good to have Red back on the thread, even if he does have me on ignore  😛 

[jonesy]

3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Thread will hopefully be obsolete soon. 

 

 

We can all grab a drink and have a good old laugh at the posts before it is 😁

[CavySlaveJambo]

26 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Ah, I didn't know that about the lateral flow tests not counting towards the stats. Where did you see that, out of interest? From a statistical point of view, I would be uneasy about that if there isn't an additional PCR test carried out for positive lateral flow tests which does count towards the stats.

 

 

It is on the Public Health Scotland Daily Dashboard.  But more along the lines of whoops we added in some lateral flow test results. 

[Taffin]

37 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Indifference encourages people not to get the vaccine. We should all have the attitude to take the vaccine when it is offered to us. 

 

So being indifferent to taking something that's not on offer to me and I can't take anyway, encourages other people not to get the vaccine, most of whom it's also not on offer to?

 

I happen to disagree with your second point but that's neither here nor there. My comment was about today's good news and those who it may makes its way to. Not whether we may or may not buy more of it in the future or whether or not any of the others gain approval at a future date.

 

Edit: I'm not meaning to be obtuse but there's a lot of moaning on this thread about good news being met with negative reactions and I just find it hard to follow that me declaring it good news for those it's relevant to and hoping that it will end our current way of living is met with questions about why I'm indifferent and not wishing to take something that even if I particularly did want to take, won't be available to me 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Taffin

[CavySlaveJambo]

Just now, jonesy said:

 

 

We can all grab a drink and have a good old laugh at the posts before it is 😁

Who would have thought this year would have been so awful back when the news first broke in January.   Oh well 2021 can only be better. 
 

And we are only on our second wave the US in on their third 

[jonesy]

48 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Risk is present in everything we do. The majority of people will not even be susceptible to getting Covid, far less becoming ill with it. Once the most vulnerable get vaccinated life will return to normal. There will slways be examples of younger people who have had bad reactions or worse, much the same as there is with myriad diseases. 12 under 35s die suddenly each week in the UK of undiagnosed heart conditions.  We don't ban under 35s from taking part in sport as a consequence.  The reaction to Covid this year has been over the top in many ways but the fear of overwhelming the NHS was the main driver. With what we know now, the thinking should have changed and a different course plotted. However,  the good news today will allow life to return normal pretty soon and Covid, whether weaker or not  , will not be any more of a threat to the vast majority of the population than any other disease or risk.

 

About 13 of them in sky blue and maroon  last Saturday that should be banned - for their own safety and our sanity.  

[jonesy]

1 minute ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

Who would have thought this year would have been so awful back when the news first broke in January.   Oh well 2021 can only be better. 
 

And we are only on our second wave the US in on their third 

A good opportunity to take stock and be grateful for the things we do have, no matter the circumstances.

[redjambo]

9 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

It is on the Public Health Scotland Daily Dashboard.  But more along the lines of whoops we added in some lateral flow test results. 

 

Cheers. If positive lateral flow tests are being urged to have a follow-up PCR test then that will force the PCR positivity rate upwards, but at least we're now employing a mass rapid-results test of some description, despite it not being as reliable as the PCR test. That should certainly help us in the fight, especially when it comes to asymptomatic cases.

[Enzo Chiefo]

13 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

About 13 of them in sky blue and maroon  last Saturday that should be banned - for their own safety and our sanity.  

😃. Can't disagree there Jonesy

[graygo]

2 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

Cheers. If positive lateral flow tests are being urged to have a follow-up PCR test then that will force the PCR positivity rate upwards, but at least we're now employing a mass rapid-results test of some description, despite it not being as reliable as the PCR test. That should certainly help us in the fight, especially when it comes to asymptomatic cases.

 

They are and aren't counted as positive until confirmed by a PCR test.

Similarly if the lateral flow rest comes up as negative they are not to assume that they don't have the virus.

So if it gives a positive result it might not be positive and if it gives a negative result it might not be negative.

Sometimes the expert's arse's can look like their elbows.

[ri Alban]

10 hours ago, Brighton Jambo said:

An interesting scenario to ponder.  Imagine if the number of people who won’t take the virus means that some level of restrictions has to remain permanently in place.  Things could get pretty divisive with those wanting a return to normal challenging those who won’t take the vaccine.  
 

p.s.  yes I did get this thought from watching Jonathan penalty shoot out Van Tam.  

Well that’s democracy. 

[manaliveits105]

6 hours ago, Brian Dundas said:

Thread will hopefully be obsolete soon. 

I would hope jkb will offer counselling to our resident doom mongers and those who will go cold turkey when the daily updates cease

[ri Alban]

7 hours ago, jonesy said:

A good opportunity to take stock and be grateful for the things we do have, no matter the circumstances.

Best post on the entire thread. 👏

[Lord BJ]

When the announcement about the schools due to be made? I thought it was this week but seems to have gone quiet after vaccine announcement. 
 

I believe the holidays are being extended/ blended learning introduced for period but would be nice to have it confirmed,

[ri Alban]

Get a bad feeling Politicians (MPs etc... ) , Pro Sport (football etc...) and Hollywood are gonnae steal the vaccines for themselves. 

Edited December 3, 2020 by ri Alban

[Brian Dundas]

1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:

When the announcement about the schools due to be made? I thought it was this week but seems to have gone quiet after vaccine announcement. 
 

I believe the holidays are being extended/ blended learning introduced for period but would be nice to have it confirmed,

There are council meetings with parents groups etc this week, expect the announcement on Monday, although it might be tomorrow as Swinney does the Friday briefing.

[Lord BJ]

1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

There are council meetings with parents groups etc this week, expect the announcement on Monday, although it might be tomorrow as Swinney does the Friday briefing.

That all done, it was due this week.

 

Not sure if the school announcement needs to made to Parliament first. 

[manaliveits105]

The guy on teatime news stv said it would be up to individual councils to decide - if true buck passed as usual by SG with any dodgy news 

[graygo]

13 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

The guy on teatime news stv said it would be up to individual councils to decide - if true buck passed as usual by SG with any dodgy news 

 

What? Our power mad, Hitler like, dictatorial first minister is letting the affected areas decide for themselves? Ridiculous behaviour.

[Brian Dundas]

24 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

The guy on teatime news stv said it would be up to individual councils to decide - if true buck passed as usual by SG with any dodgy news 

Councils run the schools and each area has different rates of infections. Some areas don’t need the extra time out of school. 

[Justin Z]

28 minutes ago, graygo said:

What? Our power mad, Hitler like, dictatorial first minister is letting the affected areas decide for themselves? Ridiculous behaviour.

 

[Nucky Thompson]

27 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

What? Our power mad, Hitler like, dictatorial first minister is letting the affected areas decide for themselves? Ridiculous behaviour.

That's what her stooge Swinney is there for. He obviously isn't competent enough to make the decision himself

[Governor Tarkin]

44 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

What? Our power mad, Hitler like, dictatorial first minister is letting the affected areas decide for themselves? Ridiculous behaviour.

 

She's only providing them with sufficient rope to hang themselves.

[Harry Potter]

Just now, Governor Tarkin said:

 

She's only providing them with sufficient rope to hang themselves.

😏, looks like im in tier 7

[graygo]

1 minute ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

She's only providing them with sufficient rope to hang themselves.

 

Or she thinks that the local councils are better placed to make an informed decision and is smart enough to let them do so.

[Governor Tarkin]

2 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Or she thinks that the local councils are better placed to make an informed decision and is smart enough to let them do so.

 

She's throwing them a bone with full the intention of overruling their recommendations if and when she sees fit.

[graygo]

1 minute ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

She's throwing them a bone with full the intention of overruling their recommendations if and when she sees fit.

 

Let's see if "the guy on TV news stv" is correct first. 

[Governor Tarkin]

1 minute ago, graygo said:

 

Let's see if "the guy on TV news stv" is correct first. 

 

Doubtful.

[Lord BJ]

If SG we’re leaving school decisions to LA, I would be very surprised. It would go against how this whole thing has been done and what’s been said to date. 
 

Plus Swinney was due to make announcement on it this week. 

[Governor Tarkin]

Just now, Lord BJ said:

If SG we’re leaving school decisions to LA, I would be very surprised. It would go against how this whole thing has been done and what’s been said to date. 
 

Plus Swinney was due to make announcement on it this week. 

 

Every time I see Swinney on the TV I'm reminded of the Spitting Image John Major eating a plate of peas.

[Justin Z]

 

[Brian Dundas]

8 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

If SG we’re leaving school decisions to LA, I would be very surprised. It would go against how this whole thing has been done and what’s been said to date. 
 

Plus Swinney was due to make announcement on it this week. 

I think it is likely Swinney will announce it tomorrow, which is why SL Council are hastily having meetings with Parents Councils to tell them tonight. No idea why they tell us first but it seems to be the way things are done.

 

I'd like to hear an announcement about Teachers getting moved up the vaccination list. If they are that determined to keep schools open at all costs then perhaps they should make sure that the staff are protected better. It would also allow schools to return to normal more quickly.

 

I am sure there are plenty of sectors that could put a case forward, maybe it is a discussion that we need to governments/'experts' to have?

[Lord BJ]

11 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

Every time I see Swinney on the TV I'm reminded of the Spitting Image John Major eating a plate of peas.

 

Major had way more personality. Wasn't he shagging Edwina Curry or something or have I just made that up.

 

After all my years of posting I have just figured out where the emoji in JKB 

 

 

[Norm]

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

Major had way more personality. Wasn't he shagging Edwina Curry or something or have I just made that up.

 

After all my years of posting I have just figured out where the emoji in JKB 

 

 

Yup. Dirty old sod was slipping Edwina the length in secret. Didn't his dad used to work in the circus too? 

 

 

[graygo]

I'm confused now, are the SG "passing the buck" and "stooge" John Swinney isn't competent enough to make the decision or are they making the decision and announcing it this week.

Or as I suspect to be the case, nobody knows but any chance to rip them up should be taken.