Pants Shaton Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Fretting about our chances of staying up + avoiding things I should be doing = BEST CASE SCENARIO - IDIOTICALLY OPTIMISTIC PREDICTIONS Ross County (A) Win Rangers (H) Draw St Johnstone (A) Win Kilmarnock (H) Win Celtic (A) Loss Hamilton (H) Win St Mirren (A) Win Hibs (A) Win Motherwell (H) Win Livingston (A) Win Ross County (H) Win Aberdeen (A) Draw 29 points + current 13 = 42 OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO PREDICTIONS *assuming we get our shit together and a transfer window Stendel bounce Ross County (A) Draw Rangers (H) Loss St Johnstone (A) Draw Kilmarnock (H) Win Celtic (A) Loss Hamilton (H) Win St Mirren (A) Draw Hibs (A) Draw Motherwell (H) Draw Livingston (A) Draw Ross County (H) Win Aberdeen (A) Draw 16 points + current 13 = 29 points NIGHTMARE* SCENARIO *Extrapolating from our current form this season 7 points + current 13 = 20 points NORMAL* HEARTS SCENARIO *If we pick up the same points in games 22 - 33 as we did in previous seasons in 2017/18 - 17 points + current 13 = 30 points in 2018/19 - 14 points + current 13 = 27 points WHAT'S REQUIRED? Now in the past 3 seasons: The points required (pre-split) to be 10th was: 32, 30 and 25 The points required (pre-split) to be 11th was: 30, 26, 21 The points (pre-split) for the bottom club was: 25, 25, 18 So basically a return to 'run-of-the-mill' Hearts form would probably see us avoid automatic relegation but would leave us with a high likelihood of having to win a play-off. Gaining 5 or 6 points more than that would give us a decent chance of avoiding the play-off. Continuing our current form is (obviously) a recipe for automatic relegation. Of course, there are the post-split fixtures to consider - and we could still pull it out of the bag with an unbelievable run of results against the other bottom six clubs but that would seem unlikely if we haven't seen progress by April. I think we'll be OK... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rods Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Away wins are what are required for survival. I think our home form will be okay under stendel but I fear it won't be enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blairdin Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rods said: Away wins are what are required for survival. I think our home form will be okay under stendel but I fear it won't be enough. That's where I am. To have any chance, those of us going to any away games have to get right behind whatever we have come the start of February. A massive change in mentality is required throughout the club, starting in Dingwall in a few weeks time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i8hibsh Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, Rods said: Away wins are what are required for survival. I think our home form will be okay under stendel but I fear it won't be enough. We can't win at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blairdin Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, i8hibsh said: We can't win at home. I've seen enough in the last few games to think Stendel will be able to turn our home form around once he's added a few of his own players to the squad. Away is a bigger issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The Hamilton and St.Mirren wins have made it a precarious position. There's more than enough games to recover but only on the premise of the situation not becoming worse. If we get off to a good start or make incremental gains then we'll probably survive. If we fall 3 or 4 more behind then it's curtains I'm afraid. The killer is being more than one win away from parity. If we were offered the same position at game 33 then it would not be the worst scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jammy T Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 (edited) Its in our hands but it is a tough statistical and practical ask to avoid the play offs let alone automatic relegation Basically winning 50% of our remaining games and drawing 25% of the others is practically the only way to guarantee avoiding the play off. The key key games will be the 6 games we have left against those clubs in the 3 places above us - all of them are must win IMO. I would also be hopeful of a high points gain in the bottom six games post split if Stendel has kicked on - which I think he will Edited January 1, 2020 by Jammy T Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbojambo Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 We need to win 3 in a row like St Johnstone did in December and we will climb the table and start playing with confidence. History tells me if Naismith is back after the break we will be OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 We don't need to win 3 games in a row. We only need to avoid it getting worse + small gains + our rivals each having a poor run. Leaps & bounds gains and winning runs is much better but it's not a must at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martoon Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, jimbojambo said: We need to win 3 in a row like St Johnstone did in December and we will climb the table and start playing with confidence. History tells me if Naismith is back after the break we will be OK. My feeling too. I think the new boss bounce is still to come and a solid run of 4/5 wins in, say, 7 games will change our situ dramatically. Sadly, I'm not convinced Naismith will play a big part, if any, in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
savage Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Think we should just take one game at a time. Recruitment and returning injuries will have a huge say in our fortunes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pants Shaton Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, jimbojambo said: We need to win 3 in a row like St Johnstone did in December and we will climb the table and start playing with confidence. History tells me if Naismith is back after the break we will be OK. One thing which counts against us is that we can’t play Hearts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1971fozzy Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Every game is a cup final now. we desperately need a fit Naismith. Without him we struggle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dusk_Till_Dawn Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I suspect we’re finishing bottom two. The gap in front of us is a huge handicap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kila Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said: I suspect we’re finishing bottom two. The gap in front of us is a huge handicap. Bad hangover today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudi5kaceldream1ng Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Personally I think we’ve had the beating of our last 3 out of 4 opponents. Stendel is a good manager & I’m looking forward to the rest of the season. I think we need to make the most of this January window and then crack on. One game at a time though- Scottish Cup Game v airdrie should be earmarked as the day we announce to the rest of scottish football that we’re not ****ing going anywhere and are here to stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruyff Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 We need to win 10 games. 🤙 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
busby1985 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Honestly, we will be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pants Shaton Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Cruyff said: We need to win 10 games. 🤙 5 or 6 before the split would be enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpyespana Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 As I have said before its all about scoring goals if we get the right striker in the window we will be fine maybe not get into Europe but will be safe from relegation but if we don't find one we will be struggling that's a fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruyff Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 28 minutes ago, Pants Shaton said: 5 or 6 before the split would be enough Yeah 5 or 6 before the split, 4 winnable post split games, probably get a few draws too. 30points will be enough i’d imagine, wins, draws, doesn’t matter how we do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettigrewsstylist Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 At least we have Airdrie match to blood newbies. We will prob need to score 2 goals in most away matches and im pretty sure at Ross County. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Sifter Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 5 hours ago, busby1985 said: Honestly, we will be fine. This. We’ve still to plays St Mirren twice before the end of the season. Take those *******s to the cleaners and we’ll be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
busby1985 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Mr Sifter said: This. We’ve still to plays St Mirren twice before the end of the season. Take those *******s to the cleaners and we’ll be fine. The difference in our play has been unreal. When you factor in Daly, Levein, MacPhee and all that still kicking around. Whelan kicking off. Run ins with Berra, Naismith etx etx. It’s been a sensational change of pace for us. When Stendel gets his own men, his own players and gets three clear weeks of working with the players at his disposal, we will have more than enough to stay in this league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigO Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 We need to get 6 more points than Hamilton over the next 17 games to not be bottom. That does not seem overly mountainous. We've not been playing badly under DS and we'll have Washington, Naismith, Soapy and Walker hopefully all back plus signings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Elwood P Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 hours ago, grumpyespana said: As I have said before its all about scoring goals if we get the right striker in the window we will be fine maybe not get into Europe but will be safe from relegation but if we don't find one we will be struggling that's a fact. We’re 20 points behind a Europa League spot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pants Shaton Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 hours ago, grumpyespana said: As I have said before its all about scoring goals if we get the right striker in the window we will be fine maybe not get into Europe but will be safe from relegation but if we don't find one we will be struggling that's a fact. We’d have to start league-winning form to even qualify for the top six Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hmfc_liam06 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 7 hours ago, Jammy T said: Its in our hands but it is a tough statistical and practical ask to avoid the play offs let alone automatic relegation Basically winning 50% of our remaining games and drawing 25% of the others is practically the only way to guarantee avoiding the play off. The key key games will be the 6 games we have left against those clubs in the 3 places above us - all of them are must win IMO. I would also be hopeful of a high points gain in the bottom six games post split if Stendel has kicked on - which I think he will 5 points behind suggests it's very much not in our own hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC_92 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 28 minutes ago, hmfc_liam06 said: 5 points behind suggests it's very much not in our own hands. It is in our own hands. If we get 30 points in the remaining games, for example, then we're definitely safe (although we probably won't need as much as that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
portobellojambo1 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 (edited) 56 minutes ago, hmfc_liam06 said: 5 points behind suggests it's very much not in our own hands. It is in our hands, the one outlook we should not adopt is the only way out is with help from others. By the time the game comes around up at Dingwall we'll have a better idea of where we are both player wise and playing style wise. We have been placed in a difficult situation but it isn't irrecoverable, but it will involve all the players pulling in the right direction and giving everything for the jersey. We don't have to perform miracles over the 2nd half of the season, we just have to look to make sure we are still in this division come the end of the season, that will be a success given our present situation. Edited January 1, 2020 by portobellojambo1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VALDOS' Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 With only 2 wins so far, getting that figure to 5 or 6 will require a minor miracle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graygo Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Mr Elwood P said: We’re 20 points behind a Europa League spot? We're a cup win away from a Europa League spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fila Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Win more games than the other teams around you , pretty simple . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Elwood P Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 hours ago, hmfc_liam06 said: 5 points behind suggests it's very much not in our own hands. Maths isn’t your forte? 5 points behind, with two games versus Hamilton still to play, pretty clear that it is In fact, very much in our own hands! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil D. Corners Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Bad news is we are 5 points adrift from 11 place. Good news is that there is only 7 points between 11th and 5th. And we are still in the cup. I’m hoping we go on a run similar to the 98/99 season, where we were also crap, then Cameron came back from injury and we had a great last quarter . Or when Robbo signed Lee Miller on loan and he banged in goals almost every game and got us to Europe. IIRC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DH1986 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Win our remaining matches against Hamilton, St Mirren, St Johnstone and Ross County and we’ll be safe. That’s 24 points plus whatever else we can manage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Elwood P Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 53 minutes ago, DH1986 said: Win our remaining matches against Hamilton, St Mirren, St Johnstone and Ross County and we’ll be safe. That’s 24 points plus whatever else we can manage. Aye, nae bother ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DH1986 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said: Aye, nae bother ... Problem ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BervieJambo Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 There are 36 points available up until the split. If we gain 20, then we have a good chance of staying up. Less than 15 points and we are in deep trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonbe110 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 16 hours ago, hmfc_liam06 said: 5 points behind suggests it's very much not in our own hands. It is. We have Hamilton to play twice, that’s six points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Elwood P Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, DH1986 said: Problem ? To suggest beating four of the bottom six teams as a realistic target is pretty naive. We’ve already lost to St Johnstone and Hamilton under Stendel, to transform us in three weeks to the extent that we’d take 12 points from them is very unlikely. Edited January 2, 2020 by Mr Elwood P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Findlay Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 On 01/01/2020 at 12:28, Pants Shaton said: Fretting about our chances of staying up + avoiding things I should be doing = BEST CASE SCENARIO - IDIOTICALLY OPTIMISTIC PREDICTIONS Ross County (A) Win Rangers (H) Draw St Johnstone (A) Win Kilmarnock (H) Win Celtic (A) Loss Hamilton (H) Win St Mirren (A) Win Hibs (A) Win Motherwell (H) Win Livingston (A) Win Ross County (H) Win Aberdeen (A) Draw 29 points + current 13 = 42 OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO PREDICTIONS *assuming we get our shit together and a transfer window Stendel bounce Ross County (A) Draw Rangers (H) Loss St Johnstone (A) Draw Kilmarnock (H) Win Celtic (A) Loss Hamilton (H) Win St Mirren (A) Draw Hibs (A) Draw Motherwell (H) Draw Livingston (A) Draw Ross County (H) Win Aberdeen (A) Draw 16 points + current 13 = 29 points NIGHTMARE* SCENARIO *Extrapolating from our current form this season 7 points + current 13 = 20 points NORMAL* HEARTS SCENARIO *If we pick up the same points in games 22 - 33 as we did in previous seasons in 2017/18 - 17 points + current 13 = 30 points in 2018/19 - 14 points + current 13 = 27 points WHAT'S REQUIRED? Now in the past 3 seasons: The points required (pre-split) to be 10th was: 32, 30 and 25 The points required (pre-split) to be 11th was: 30, 26, 21 The points (pre-split) for the bottom club was: 25, 25, 18 So basically a return to 'run-of-the-mill' Hearts form would probably see us avoid automatic relegation but would leave us with a high likelihood of having to win a play-off. Gaining 5 or 6 points more than that would give us a decent chance of avoiding the play-off. Continuing our current form is (obviously) a recipe for automatic relegation. Of course, there are the post-split fixtures to consider - and we could still pull it out of the bag with an unbelievable run of results against the other bottom six clubs but that would seem unlikely if we haven't seen progress by April. I think we'll be OK... Win them. Relegation well and truly avoided. Have to get rid of the mentality of scared of losing to a mentality of not being scared of winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schillaci Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 hours ago, Phil D. Corners said: Bad news is we are 5 points adrift from 11 place. Good news is that there is only 7 points between 11th and 5th. And we are still in the cup. I’m hoping we go on a run similar to the 98/99 season, where we were also crap, then Cameron came back from injury and we had a great last quarter . Or when Robbo signed Lee Miller on loan and he banged in goals almost every game and got us to Europe. IIRC This cluster from 11th to 5th is the key. They will all be scrapping for top 6 and avoid being dragged into relegation. This means that it is also likely that most or all of bottom 6 will be in danger after the split. If we were one of 2 teams adrift by 5/6 points we'd be in a worse place. Win home games against relegation rivals (bottom 7teams) and don't lose to relegation rivals away. If we can't do that we deserve to go down. A run of points from us will raise the fear in the likes of Killie and Hibs eg six of next nine points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DH1986 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said: To suggest beating four of the bottom six teams as a realistic target is pretty naive. We’ve already lost to St Johnstone and Hamilton under Stendel, to transform us in three weeks to the extent that we’d take 12 points from them is very unlikely. Why does the full transformation have to be done in only 21 days? We play Ross County in 3 weeks....is beating them not a possibility? We play St Johnstone in 4 weeks...is beating them not a possibility? We play Hamilton in 6 weeks...is beating them not a possibility? We play St Mirren in 7 weeks...is beating them not a possibility? Its then a further 4 weeks before we start the run against these teams again. To act likes is not possible is naive tbh. Edited January 2, 2020 by DH1986 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Elwood P Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, DH1986 said: Why does the full transformation have to be done in only 21 days? We play Ross County in 3 weeks....is beating them not a possibility? We play St Johnstone in 4 weeks...is beating them not a possibility? We play Hamilton in 6 weeks...is beating them not a possibility? We play St Mirren in 7 weeks...is beating them not a possibility? Its then a further 4 weeks before we start the run against these teams again. To act likes is not possible is naive tbh. To suggest we’re going to beat four different teams, home and away, when we’ve won two games this season is mental! Hope to be proven wrong but I cannot see us going on anything like that kind of run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DH1986 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said: To suggest we’re going to beat four different teams, home and away, when we’ve won two games this season is mental! Hope to be proven wrong but I cannot see us going on anything like that kind of run. I just don’t think we’ll be the same team for the remainder of the season as we were for pretty much the entirety of 2019. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hmfc_liam06 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 41 minutes ago, soonbe110 said: It is. We have Hamilton to play twice, that’s six points. Sorry, I didn't realise there was only two games left in the season to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Elwood P Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, DH1986 said: I just don’t think we’ll be the same team for the remainder of the season as we were for pretty much the entirety of 2019. If we can get Souttar, Walker, Naismith, Haring, Washington and a few additions on the park for a run of games, we literally won’t be the same team. Hope you are correct on this one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DH1986 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said: If we can get Souttar, Walker, Naismith, Haring, Washington and a few additions on the park for a run of games, we literally won’t be the same team. Hope you are correct on this one! The first 6 weeks after the split throw up some real telling fixtures for ourselves, Hamilton and St Mirren in particular. I’m fairly confident we’ll be ok and the bottom two will be St Mirren and Hamilton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil D. Corners Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, DH1986 said: Why does the full transformation have to be done in only 21 days? We play Ross County in 3 weeks....is beating them not a possibility? We play St Johnstone in 4 weeks...is beating them not a possibility? We play Hamilton in 6 weeks...is beating them not a possibility? We play St Mirren in 7 weeks...is beating them not a possibility? Its then a further 4 weeks before we start the run against these teams again. To act likes is not possible is naive tbh. I would say cup game on the 18th is a start. Another cup run would be great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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