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Ulysses
1 hour ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

I don't know how I can "show you" more than posting links to academic studies that do exactly that. I mean, what do you want, me to do a book report on each of them?

 

Just show me the examples of where the 2016 and 2020 late polling overestimated Trump's performance in individual states.  I've only found two.  Were there others?

 

 

1 hour ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

 

 

I disagree on three accounts. Trump's favorability rating in polling average is 42.6%. That's his coalition of reactionary evangelical Christians, white nationalists, QAnons, and so forth, plus a small handful that don't GAF but just like his shitehousery. I'd say that's his floor, although I guess it could go a little lower if he gets a felony conviction.

 

Why do you think a felony conviction would matter?  Seriously.  Every single time something has happened that would utterly wreck most people's political careers, it has been like water off a duck's back for Trump.  Every.  Single.  Time.  If he strangled a Shirley Temple lookalike and threw a live Labrador puppy into an industrial shredder on primetime TV, the MAGAs would dismiss it as fake news, and his polling ratings wouldn't change.  :ninja: 

 

By the way, 42-43% would probably win it for Trump if Kennedy has a good election.  Perot's performance made sure 43% was good enough for Clinton to win the Electoral College 370-168.

 

 

1 hour ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

I also don't think the polls show 90% have made up their minds. The pollsters push hard on "leaners" to get a preference but you don't give the candidate you're totally 100% set on a 42% popularity rating. The political chatter continues to be around "double-dislikers," those who don't like either Trump or Biden. Their opinions are largely split and prone to change. There again, the reasons people don't like Biden are well known and addressable, to a degree.

 

I don't think the polls show that either, so it's difficult to disagree with me on that.  I think 90% have made up their minds because that's the way contemporary American politics seems to roll, and in reality 90% seem to have always made up their minds.  Do you believe that more than 10% of American voters are actually swing or independent voters, as opposed to people who like to claim to be while carrying on voting for their real chosen party?  If so, what percentage do you think it might be?

 

 

1 hour ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

Finally, I think the bookies aren't particularly good at prediction, nor are they trying to be. 

 

The odds are a function of the punters.  The bookies just collect a percentage.  People can debate all day, but ponying up cash on a result is a proper sign of confidence.  When all the "data analysis" is said and done, the best indicator of whether Biden is overtaking Trump might not be the polls, but the odds.

 

By the way, and on that subject...

 

18 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

....if you told me now that every single one of those move in strongly positive directions (like let's pretend gas drops below $3/gallon, core inflation is 2.5% or lower, and the federal funds rate drops below 4%), I would buy 10:1 odds on a Biden win, even if he somehow drools on stage at a debate.

 

How much of your hard-earned would you put up at in or about 9:15 pm Edinburgh time on March 28th, 2024?  Just how confident are you?  Or should I say, just how confident are you?

 

 

 

And finally finally...

 

1 hour ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

I disagree on three accounts.....

 

I disagree that you disagree.  We're not disagreeing; we're merely developing our thinking.

 

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Mikey1874
On 27/03/2024 at 21:22, Ulysses said:

 

This election doesn't either.  It might yet, but that remains to be seen.

 

Well he's the first US President to face a criminal trial and the hush money trial starting on 15 April has 'Guilty' all over it. 

 

But we'll see.

 

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Mikey1874
On 26/03/2024 at 22:48, XB52 said:

Now he's flogging bibles. It's hilarious that there are millions of Americans dumb enough to vote for him and even dumb enough to buy his bibles

 

It is all very serious with what Trump might do as President, but the Americans certainly deliver the comedy value.

 

 

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Maple Leaf
2 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

It is all very serious with what Trump might do as President, but the Americans certainly deliver the comedy value.

 

 

All this from a guy who was unable to quote a single verse from the Bible.  He simply said he "loves them all."  He's a shameless grifter, among his other numerous faults.

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Lovecraft
On 28/03/2024 at 19:12, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

I don't know how I can "show you" more than posting links to academic studies that do exactly that. I mean, what do you want, me to do a book report on each of them?

 

Yes, the errors in 2016 and 2020 were underestimating Trump's support. In 2022 it was underestimating Democratic support. It's why those links are all about pollsters re-examining their methods (as they do after every election but particularly after these).

 

Since then, special elections are notoriously hard to poll, but Democrats keep doing better than polling and better than expected.

 

 

 

I disagree on three accounts. Trump's favorability rating in polling average is 42.6%. That's his coalition of reactionary evangelical Christians, white nationalists, QAnons, and so forth, plus a small handful that don't GAF but just like his shitehousery. I'd say that's his floor, although I guess it could go a little lower if he gets a felony conviction.

 

I also don't think the polls show 90% have made up their minds. The pollsters push hard on "leaners" to get a preference but you don't give the candidate you're totally 100% set on a 42% popularity rating. The political chatter continues to be around "double-dislikers," those who don't like either Trump or Biden. Their opinions are largely split and prone to change. There again, the reasons people don't like Biden are well known and addressable, to a degree.

 

Finally, I think the bookies aren't particularly good at prediction, nor are they trying to be. Their job is to split the action and get people putting money on both sides so they get paid no matter who wins. This is why, apologies to Masonic, the Michelle Obama stuff moved in the odds. It became popular among a particular set of paranoid right wingers. It was never, ever a serious possibility to anyone who'd ever heard her talk about how she felt about electoral politics and her time in the White House, or followed anything she's done since they moved out, but in the absence of serious contenders there were dingbats showing up to drop money and they're going to find a way to collect it.

I mean, there's no need to apologise to Masonic - he probably has his Trump Bible to keep him right, so he is all good.  Every ****er on the real side of reality knew Michelle Obama wasn't gonna be the candidate for the Dems.  Just the same as normal (non-moron) people knew that she was a woman.

 

Morons are gonna be morons.  They are easily led aside and scammed.   **** them, to be brutally honest.

 

For definition :  https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/moron

 

 

 

 

Edited by Lovecraft
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Ulysses
1 hour ago, Lovecraft said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68708648

 

laughing-laugh.gif

 

 

 

It was always a meme stock.  Everyone knew it was a meme stock.  Apart from morons.

 

It's a rug pull.

 

 

 

 

Fraudulently inflating values, you say?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/01/trump-bond-civil-fraud-case-averts-asset-seizures?CMP=share_btn_url

 

 

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Footballfirst
8 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

The judge who Trump appointed to the bench is playing the game that Trump wants her to play.  She is dragging out the so-called documents case to Trump's advantage.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/03/politics/legal-fights-judge-trump-documents-trial/index.html

 

 

I've been following the recent submissions in the case. It's looking increasingly likely that Special Counsel Jack Smith wants to take her decisions/indecision to the appellate court. If he is successful, then it will be the 3rd time in relation to this case and Cannon will be thrown off the case.

 

Two of her law clerks resigned a couple of weeks ago, although the reason for their departure wasn't disclosed.

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Jim_Duncan
9 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

The judge who Trump appointed to the bench is playing the game that Trump wants her to play.  She is dragging out the so-called documents case to Trump's advantage.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/03/politics/legal-fights-judge-trump-documents-trial/index.html

 

 

In a country that votes on everything from dog catchers to which octogenarian gets a big house in Washington for four years, you’d have thunk SCJs would be democratically chosen, rather than simply appointed. A

 

Cant complain though, one of my distant relatives was appointed to the Supreme Court last century. 

Edited by Jim_Duncan
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King Of The Cat Cafe
9 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

I've been following the recent submissions in the case. It's looking increasingly likely that Special Counsel Jack Smith wants to take her decisions/indecision to the appellate court. If he is successful, then it will be the 3rd time in relation to this case and Cannon will be thrown off the case.

 

Two of her law clerks resigned a couple of weeks ago, although the reason for their departure wasn't disclosed.

 

Smith is arguing that the judge is instructing both sides to compile jury instructions that simply do not apply to the case. (And would taint the jury pool since there is no jury yet.)

I think Smith wants Cannon fired.

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Glenn Kirschner saying he thinks her latest antics are "more than enough" to have her removed. It's been obvious from the beginning that this woman is so bias in favour of Trump who is so obviously guilty that she doesn't even care it's obvious she is being inappropriately bias.

 

In her latest ruling she's reserving a right to give an instruction to the jury that has no grounding in law, she's inventing it. if she delivered this instruction to a jury they would almost certainly have to find him not guilty. And i'm guessing Smith will most definitely think she would do it, wrecking his case, because once the jury is 'seated' he has no further avenue of appeal, she could tell them anything she wanted.

 

Every step of the way this woman has done nothing but try to hinder this trial, I bet it would already be in court if a real judge had been handling it. She doesn't seem to care her bias is blatantly obvious, I can only guess she's hoping Trump wins an election and she can bask in the glory of MAGA superstardom.  Maybe even become a Trump appointee to government office.

 

BREAKING: Trump judge wages war on Jack Smith with STUNNING response

 

The Legal Breakdown episode 245: @GlennKirschner2 discusses Judge Cannon's shocking response to Jack Smith in Trump's Florida case.

 

 

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Will Truth Social face the same fate as Trump's casinos?

 

CNN's Brianna Keilar breaks down the parallels between the financial struggles former President Donald Trump faced with his casino empire and his present day troubles with Truth Social.

 

 

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JDK2020
On 04/04/2024 at 10:51, Jim_Duncan said:

In a country that votes on everything from dog catchers to which octogenarian gets a big house in Washington for four years, you’d have thunk SCJs would be democratically chosen, rather than simply appointed. A

 

Cant complain though, one of my distant relatives was appointed to the Supreme Court last century. 

 

...and they're still getting wheeled into court every day to pass judgement this century?

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Maple Leaf

There were over 300,000 new jobs created in the US last month, continuing the incredible job creation trend under the Biden administration.  It's over 15 million now, I think.

 

But that's the economy, and in the 'Alice-in-Wonderland' politics of the US today, nobody seems to care about the economy.  

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Jim_Duncan
5 hours ago, JDK2020 said:

 

...and they're still getting wheeled into court every day to pass judgement this century?

Sadly long since gone. 

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Maple Leaf

Last week I described Trump's new stock venture as "all smoke and mirrors".  That's becoming apparent.

 

Last week the stock listed as high as $79.  Today it listed at $41.  The Company has been described as a scam.  Who'da thunk that??  It's probably less of a scam than the Trump Bible. :biggrin2:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/business/trump-media-stock-sinks-post-merger-low/index.html

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19 minutes ago, Maple Leaf said:

Last week I described Trump's new stock venture as "all smoke and mirrors".  That's becoming apparent.

 

Last week the stock listed as high as $79.  Today it listed at $41.  The Company has been described as a scam.  Who'da thunk that??  It's probably less of a scam than the Trump Bible. :biggrin2:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/business/trump-media-stock-sinks-post-merger-low/index.html

 

Somebody described it as a pump and dump scam. Looks like the pump part of the scam is falling apart before it can be dumped. Loses over $1 million per week, income about 80K a week.

 

It's entirely dependent on ads and who is going to advertise on it? You're not going to see coke or BMW or something in there associating themselves with Trump are you? What they got, the pillow guy?

 

They don't post usage numbers which is something all others in this industry do. They post detailed monthly usage stats like how many regularly login monthly and how many are new monthly. Is it growing?

 

They post that because for the likes of Twitter before Musk put a number of spokes in their wheel this is the info advertisers want, and twitter probably had billions of visits per month.

 

Who would seriously want to throw major money at a venture that has an estimated 5 million regular users a month, Taylor Swift alone far less Twitter or Facebook etc. dwarfs that, and what chance has something which delivers nothing anything else doesn't already have except Trump have of growing any more?

 

This if worth anything might be a few million, not billions. In my financially uneducated opinion. 

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Trump SNAPS, goes OFF THE RAILS in unhinged speech about judge

 

 

 

 

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Footballfirst
2 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

Last week I described Trump's new stock venture as "all smoke and mirrors".  That's becoming apparent.

 

Last week the stock listed as high as $79.  Today it listed at $41.  The Company has been described as a scam.  Who'da thunk that??  It's probably less of a scam than the Trump Bible. :biggrin2:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/business/trump-media-stock-sinks-post-merger-low/index.html

I read an article yesterday that the stock is being heavily shorted in expectation the the share price will collapse.  However there isn't a large number of shares available, making it expensive for dealers to "borrow" the shares, thus limiting the profit available. 

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Lone Striker

Not sure if I'm reading this right ..... but is the appalling gang violence in Haiti (basically a  civil war of criminality) becoming a factor in the U.S. presidential  election ?   Namely, that old chestnut of  "illegal immigration"  - in this case, thousands  of Haitians fleeing  from it and seeking safety in the U.S.         Is it as simple as the Republicans  taking a hardline stance of wanting to deport them, while the Democrats  are taking a humanitarian stance ?

 

"Stop the Boats"  ?

 

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Maple Leaf
4 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

I read an article yesterday that the stock is being heavily shorted in expectation the the share price will collapse.  However there isn't a large number of shares available, making it expensive for dealers to "borrow" the shares, thus limiting the profit available. 

I'm an investor I'm not a gambler.  Nevertheless, I seriously thought about taking a short position on that stock (DJT on the NYSE) because I felt it was a slam dunk.  But my gambling aversion to going short on a stock stopped me.  Oh well.

 

I could have made a VERY nice profit within the 5-day settlement period, meaning I wouldn't have had to lay out a cent.  Hindsight, eh?

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Ulysses
57 minutes ago, Maple Leaf said:

May be an image of 1 person, eclipse and text that says 'Marjorie Taylor Greene @mtgreenee God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent. Earthquakes and eclipses and many more things to come. I pray that our country listens. 12:13 PM. 4/5/24 From Earth'

 

And gazpacho.  Don't forget the gazpacho.  :rofl:

 

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Dawnrazor
1 hour ago, Maple Leaf said:

May be an image of 1 person, eclipse and text that says 'Marjorie Taylor Greene @mtgreenee God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent. Earthquakes and eclipses and many more things to come. I pray that our country listens. 12:13 PM. 4/5/24 From Earth'

On her bad week?

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Cranston
5 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

May be an image of 1 person, eclipse and text that says 'Marjorie Taylor Greene @mtgreenee God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent. Earthquakes and eclipses and many more things to come. I pray that our country listens. 12:13 PM. 4/5/24 From Earth'

So, she wants Russia to occupy Ukraine,

 

Israel to be bombed and raped,

 

Homosexuals to be thrown off high places by Muslims?

 

The West to surrender, Europe to be in civil war?

 

WTF

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15 minutes ago, Cranston said:

So, she wants Russia to occupy Ukraine,

 

Israel to be bombed and raped,

 

Homosexuals to be thrown off high places by Muslims?

 

The West to surrender, Europe to be in civil war?

 

WTF

WTF is exactly what I thought when I saw your post.

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Maple Leaf
16 minutes ago, Cranston said:

So, she wants Russia to occupy Ukraine,

 

Israel to be bombed and raped,

 

Homosexuals to be thrown off high places by Muslims?

 

The West to surrender, Europe to be in civil war?

 

WTF

There's something wrong with her head. :conf11:  In addition to which, she is not very bright.

 

And God isn't sending eclipses.  It's one eclipse on Monday, and scientists can predict all eclipses centuries in advance.

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Cranston
Just now, Maple Leaf said:

There's something wrong with her head. :conf11:  In addition to which, she is not very bright.

 

And God isn't sending eclipses.  It's one eclipse on Monday, and scientists can predict all eclipses centuries in advance.

👍

 

Completely agree with you. Far too many of these self indulgent clueless morons. Most of them are on strong wacky backy or other mind bending drugs. Crazy Maybe? Definitely.

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Des Lynam
5 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

May be an image of 1 person, eclipse and text that says 'Marjorie Taylor Greene @mtgreenee God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent. Earthquakes and eclipses and many more things to come. I pray that our country listens. 12:13 PM. 4/5/24 From Earth'

 

 

Yes repent and vote in a rapist as President. 

 

I always hope a person like her is just at the grift but i think she's a lunatic. Her turnaround from anti-Semitic jewish space laser stuff to then backing Israel was quite impressive to watch. 

Edited by Des Lynam
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Jim_Duncan
1 hour ago, Des Lynam said:

 

 

Yes repent and vote in a rapist as President. 

 

I always hope a person like her is just at the grift but i think she's a lunatic. Her turnaround from anti-Semitic jewish space laser stuff to then backing Israel was quite impressive to watch. 

The phrase 'swivel-eyed loon' seems perfect for describing her.

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Jim_Duncan
2 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

There's something wrong with her head. :conf11:  In addition to which, she is not very bright.

 

And God isn't sending eclipses.  It's one eclipse on Monday, and scientists can predict all eclipses centuries in advance.

Biden-supporting traitors.

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Jim_Duncan
On 05/04/2024 at 21:48, JFK-1 said:

Trump SNAPS, goes OFF THE RAILS in unhinged speech about judge

 

 

 

 

The folks behind him are like extras in a film you see not knowing whether to laugh at stuff that ends up on blooper reels.

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Mikey1874

Just reflecting on it, and reading some of Biden's history with regard to Israel (Menachem Begin was more moderate than Biden in 1982), who he has amazingly allowed full scope to murder Palestinians, I'm okay with Trump beating him. 

Edited by Mikey1874
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J.T.F.Robertson
4 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

There's something wrong with her head. :conf11:  In addition to which, she is not very bright.

 

And God isn't sending eclipses.  It's one eclipse on Monday, and scientists can predict all eclipses centuries in advance.

 

Ah, but if He can send one ..... 

 

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I don't suppose it surprises anybody to learn there's something questionable about Trumps $175 million bond. This company putting up the bond aren't even in that kind of business, and it seems the guy who heads it is at least ethically questionable. Or as Trump would call him a good guy, a friend of ours.

There are doubts this company even has the cash to cover the bond, it might still come to seizure.

 

 

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Maple Leaf
14 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

Just reflecting on it, and reading some of Biden's history with regard to Israel (Menachem Begin was more moderate than Biden in 1982), who he has amazingly allowed full scope to murder Palestinians, I'm okay with Trump beating him. 

The Republican Party have long supported Israel and Trump considers Netanyahu as a close friend.  I very much doubt if Trump would have taken a hard line against Israel in this war.

 

Here's a brief description of why Republicans in general, but Evangelical Christians in particular, support Israel:

 

But evangelicals’ support isn’t simply driven by a theology that compels them to love the Holy Land, detached from its convulsive domestic and global political implications. For many “Christians Zionists,” and particularly for popular evangelists with significant clout within the Republican Party, their support for Israel is rooted in its role in the supposed end times: Jesus’ return to Earth, a bloody final battle at Armageddon, and Jesus ruling the world from the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. In this scenario, war is not something to be avoided, but something inevitable, desired by God, and celebratory.

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Ulysses
6 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

I don't suppose it surprises anybody to learn there's something questionable about Trumps $175 million bond. This company putting up the bond aren't even in that kind of business, and it seems the guy who heads it is at least ethically questionable. Or as Trump would call him a good guy, a friend of ours.

There are doubts this company even has the cash to cover the bond, it might still come to seizure.

 

 

 

Is there any chance you could spare us having to watch the video and just post the name of the company and the guy who heads it?

 

No offence, but posts that require us to "watch this video" to tell us what they're saying are no better than clickbait.

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Footballfirst

As Trump's first criminal trial approaches (due to start next Monday with Jury selection), he seems to be getting more desperate with each day that passes.  He was already trying to have the judge thrown off the case (the same request was rejected a few months ago), but his latest attempt at a delay is to ask an appellate court to remove his gag order, have the trial moved from Manhattan and finally he is seeking to sue the judge.  

 

 

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Watt-Zeefuik

Trump Social stock down another 10% just this morning already, and still dropping.

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Watt-Zeefuik

Also to @Ulysses I keep meaning to get back around to replying to your post above, which merits a response, but we've had company staying with us and work is busy as hell. Apologies.

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Watt-Zeefuik
On 06/04/2024 at 18:31, Mikey1874 said:

Just reflecting on it, and reading some of Biden's history with regard to Israel (Menachem Begin was more moderate than Biden in 1982), who he has amazingly allowed full scope to murder Palestinians, I'm okay with Trump beating him. 

 

Yes, Biden has been reflexively pro-Zionist for 40 years. But he's also been for a two state solution, some measure of Palestinian autonomy, and has been trying to pressure Netanyahu constantly to be better since Oct 6. The actions of abstaining on an anti-Israel UN Security Council vote and threatening to withhold arms seem like (and probably are) small potatoes, but they're also totally unprecedented in US-Israel relations. Biden is literally going places no President has gone before, despite supporting Israel reflexively himself.

 

Trump, in the meantime, has told Netanyahu to "hurry up with it" (invade Rafah), and has openly allied himself with the most genocidal, far right parts of Netanyahu's government.

 

I don't blame anyone for being very angry at Biden over Gaza. (I voted "no preference" in the primary as a protest vote for that reason.) But Trump would make it far worse.

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Ulysses
On 07/04/2024 at 00:42, J.T.F.Robertson said:

 

Ah, but if He can send one ..... 

 

 

20240408-204029.jpg

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J.T.F.Robertson
52 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

20240408-204029.jpg

 

Telt yi!

First one's the hardest anaw.

 

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Jim_Duncan
51 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

TBF, that's brilliant. Who says he doesn't have a sense of humour?

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Footballfirst
1 hour ago, Jim_Duncan said:

TBF, that's brilliant. Who says he doesn't have a sense of humour?

Trump "mooning" at everyone is the US?

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