9 Games Till The Split

[shaun.lawson]

That's an interesting position... any particular reason for it?

 

It's just quite conservative, bearing in mind the season so far. 21 more points... Do we get any points post split? Or are we going to do much worse than expected over these next 9 games?

 

 

I think I know why SL choose 69pts!

 

Jim Jefferies overall average points per game as a manager is approx 1.5 x 14 games remaining = 21pts + 48pts currently = 69pts

 

 

Well spotted! I really hope Shaun wouldn't be using that kind of flawed logic though - that's like working out Usain Bolt's average time for the 100 metres by using his entire life, including his childhood - with around a year where he couldn't actually walk, let alone run.

 

Oh, it is conservative, I of course accept that. I made my predictions for the remaining games before the split here:

 

http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/index.php?/topic/87906-remaining-games/page__view__findpost__p__2061046

 

So think we'll take five points after that. Charlie is essentially right as to the reasons why - but more than that, I think the players will almost certainly lose motivation and edge once it's clear we're safe in 3rd, meaning we'll coast in to the end of the season.

 

I do get HH's point why it's harsh to extrapolate JJ's past record and use it this season - but the thing is, after starting 1997/8 brilliantly, and peaking at 36 points from 15 games (2.4 per game), we actually reverted back to 1.5 per game over the rest of that season of seasons too, taking 31 from the remaining 21 fixtures. Even in 05/6, we hardly set the world alight after the first eight games - and what the modern history of Scottish football tells us is that non-OF teams occasionally put together a brilliant third or at most half of a season together, then fall back.

 

Of course, it's entirely open for the players to prove me wrong. I think our best case scenario over the remaining nine pre-split fixtures is 23 points (we're bound to drop points in a couple of games, especially at Tynecastle, where we've drawn three and lost two against non-OF opposition already): do that, and we'd have a very good chance of hitting 76 come the season's end, which would be a tremendous achievement - 2 points per game over the whole season, and statistically our best since 1991/2. I don't think we'll manage it, though.

[McJambo]

If we can pick up around 20+ points from this sequence of games, which is not beyond us by any means, we would go into the post spilt games with around 68-71 points roughly. A good set of results in those post split fixtures and we could end up very close to top spot come the end, despite someone saying last night we'll finish 20 points behind Celtic and around 15 points behind Rangers (which would mean both those clubs would have to amass points totals they have been nowhere near to for a number of years).

 

Celtic and Rangers are on course to get around 90 points each if they continue their current form, both are averaging 2.3/4 points per game based on current table.

 

They still have to play eachother so hopefully they will drop a few points and we will have to take a few off them ourselves if we are to have any chance of getting close to them.

 

The title is won almost every season by a team on 85-90 points.

 

Hearts currently have 48 points, we would need to win every game from now until the end of the season to reach 90 points.

 

More realistic would be 80-85 points and taking 6 from the Old firm and hoping they slip up elsewhere!