topcat Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Everybody would rather have 3 points in the bag than a game in hand but would you rather have 8 points in the bag than 3 games in hand? how about 7? how about 6? Surely that depends on what those games are. Who's really in the best position at the top of the table, Who look like being the top 6? with the number of fixtures postponed the league table is pretty confusing reading So I've attempted to decode it When Celtic host Aberdeen they will have played two full rounds of fixtures, There are still 5 teams that have yet to face Dundee United a 2nd time I'm attempting to project the total points after 22 games for every team To do this I'm taking the average points per game played by a team and the average points gained against their opponents and using the average of those two as the projected points gained Celtic get 2.3 Pts per Game, Teams playing against Aberdeen have averaged 1.9 so I reckon that game is worth about 2.1 points which with their existing 49 points means a predicted total of 51.1 after 22 games Repeating the exercise for Hearts Hearts vs Anybody: Average 2.1 Pts per game but their remaining opponents in this round of fixtures are tough Anybody vs Dundee United: Average 1.2 Points per game Anybody vs Kilmarnock: Average 1.3 Points per game Anybody vs Rangers: Average 0.4 Points per game Taking the midpoint of those averages and Hearts average of 2.1 we get a projected worth of Hearts vs Dundee United:1.6 Points Hearts vs Kilmarnock:1.7 Points Hearts vs Rangers: 1.2 Points Or a total of 4.5 Points giving an expected total of 43.5 after 22 games Applying this to all the remaining fixtures in the 2nd round shows that Rangers 3 extra games in hand are on balance worth slightly more than Celtic's 5 point lead and that we'll be doing well to pull either of the old firm within 8 points by game 22. It also shows that Dundee United as opposed to Motherwell are looking more like a top 6 club Team (Games) Pts+Expected Points = Total Expected Points Rangers(4):44 + 7.7 = 51.7 Celtic(1):49 + 2.1 = 51.1 Hearts(3):39 + 4.5 = 43.5 Kilmarnock(2):31 + 2.7 = 33.7 Dundee Utd(5):24 + 6.7 = 30.7 Inverness CT(1):28 + 1.3 = 29.3 Motherwell(2):25 + 2.8 = 27.8 St Johnstone(3):22 + 3.6 = 25.6 Aberdeen(2):20 + 2.0 = 22.0 Hibernian(2):16 + 2.8 = 18.8 St Mirren(2):16 + 2.0 = 18.0 Hamilton(3):12 + 3.4 = 15.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavySlaveJambo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd rather have the points. TBH number crunching is no use as football can be unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Incidentally if the top 6 does end up like that then the post split fixtures are messy two teams will have to go to Ibrox for a third time, One team would have a 3rd visit to Rugby Park, One team would get a 3rd home game against Celtic, One team would get a 3rd home game against Hearts, One team would get a 3rd home game against Inverness. But at least everybody could have 19 home and 19 away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew Gilbert Wauchope Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Everybody would rather have 3 points in the bag than a game in hand but would you rather have 8 points in the bag than 3 games in hand? how about 7? how about 6? Surely that depends on what those games are. Who's really in the best position at the top of the table, Who look like being the top 6? with the number of fixtures postponed the league table is pretty confusing reading So I've attempted to decode it When Celtic host Aberdeen they will have played two full rounds of fixtures, There are still 5 teams that have yet to face Dundee United a 2nd time I'm attempting to project the total points after 22 games for every team To do this I'm taking the average points per game played by a team and the average points gained against their opponents and using the average of those two as the projected points gained Celtic get 2.3 Pts per Game, Teams playing against Aberdeen have averaged 1.9 so I reckon that game is worth about 2.1 points which with their existing 49 points means a predicted total of 51.1 after 22 games Repeating the exercise for Hearts Hearts vs Anybody: Average 2.1 Pts per game but their remaining opponents in this round of fixtures are tough Anybody vs Dundee United: Average 1.2 Points per game Anybody vs Kilmarnock: Average 1.3 Points per game Anybody vs Rangers: Average 0.4 Points per game Taking the midpoint of those averages and Hearts average of 2.1 we get a projected worth of Hearts vs Dundee United:1.6 Points Hearts vs Kilmarnock:1.7 Points Hearts vs Rangers: 1.2 Points Or a total of 4.5 Points giving an expected total of 43.5 after 22 games Applying this to all the remaining fixtures in the 2nd round shows that Rangers 3 extra games in hand are on balance worth slightly more than Celtic's 5 point lead and that we'll be doing well to pull either of the old firm within 8 points by game 22. It also shows that Dundee United as opposed to Motherwell are looking more like a top 6 club Team (Games) Pts+Expected Points = Total Expected Points Rangers(4):44 + 7.7 = 51.7 Celtic(1):49 + 2.1 = 51.1 Hearts(3):39 + 4.5 = 43.5 Kilmarnock(2):31 + 2.7 = 33.7 Dundee Utd(5):24 + 6.7 = 30.7 Inverness CT(1):28 + 1.3 = 29.3 Motherwell(2):25 + 2.8 = 27.8 St Johnstone(3):22 + 3.6 = 25.6 Aberdeen(2):20 + 2.0 = 22.0 Hibernian(2):16 + 2.8 = 18.8 St Mirren(2):16 + 2.0 = 18.0 Hamilton(3):12 + 3.4 = 15.4 Good work TC, but I lost the will to live about a third of the way through your post. I think I'll just bide my time to see us get third place for real and the Hibs get the pish knocked out of them by the other teams in the bottom six. I like my fitba' down and dirty..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd rather have the points. TBH number crunching is no use as football can be unpredictable. The point isn't so much to predict future results as to evaluate how strong the teams current positions are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelly Terraces Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I filled in my tax return earlier. I'll post it in The Shed later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The People's Chimp Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I filled in my tax return earlier. I'll post it in The Shed later on. Thanks for the reminder. BTW TC I enjoyed your post, ta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk and Chance Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The point isn't so much to predict future results as to evaluate how strong the teams current positions are. Yeah I can dig it and I enjoyed looking at the table that way. Good work TC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigO Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The point isn't so much to predict future results as to evaluate how strong the teams current positions are. My brain works like this a bit but I don't have the intelligence and am too lazy to work it out, so thanks TC!!! Ofcourse footy doesn't work like that, we might lose our next 3 games, we might win them all. More to the point, would you take 4.5 points from those games in hand?? Let's say 5 points? Draw against the hun, yup and a win and a draw against Dutd (away) and Killie (away). Probably snap yer hand off actually!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uniwildcat38 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah I can dig it and I enjoyed looking at the table that way. Good work TC! Same feelings here. Thanks topcat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hearts_crazy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Everybody would rather have 3 points in the bag than a game in hand but would you rather have 8 points in the bag than 3 games in hand? how about 7? how about 6? Surely that depends on what those games are. Who's really in the best position at the top of the table, Who look like being the top 6? with the number of fixtures postponed the league table is pretty confusing reading So I've attempted to decode it When Celtic host Aberdeen they will have played two full rounds of fixtures, There are still 5 teams that have yet to face Dundee United a 2nd time I'm attempting to project the total points after 22 games for every team To do this I'm taking the average points per game played by a team and the average points gained against their opponents and using the average of those two as the projected points gained Celtic get 2.3 Pts per Game, Teams playing against Aberdeen have averaged 1.9 so I reckon that game is worth about 2.1 points which with their existing 49 points means a predicted total of 51.1 after 22 games Repeating the exercise for Hearts Hearts vs Anybody: Average 2.1 Pts per game but their remaining opponents in this round of fixtures are tough Anybody vs Dundee United: Average 1.2 Points per game Anybody vs Kilmarnock: Average 1.3 Points per game Anybody vs Rangers: Average 0.4 Points per game Taking the midpoint of those averages and Hearts average of 2.1 we get a projected worth of Hearts vs Dundee United:1.6 Points Hearts vs Kilmarnock:1.7 Points Hearts vs Rangers: 1.2 Points Or a total of 4.5 Points giving an expected total of 43.5 after 22 games Applying this to all the remaining fixtures in the 2nd round shows that Rangers 3 extra games in hand are on balance worth slightly more than Celtic's 5 point lead and that we'll be doing well to pull either of the old firm within 8 points by game 22. It also shows that Dundee United as opposed to Motherwell are looking more like a top 6 club Team (Games) Pts+Expected Points = Total Expected Points Rangers(4):44 + 7.7 = 51.7 Celtic(1):49 + 2.1 = 51.1 Hearts(3):39 + 4.5 = 43.5 Kilmarnock(2):31 + 2.7 = 33.7 Dundee Utd(5):24 + 6.7 = 30.7 Inverness CT(1):28 + 1.3 = 29.3 Motherwell(2):25 + 2.8 = 27.8 St Johnstone(3):22 + 3.6 = 25.6 Aberdeen(2):20 + 2.0 = 22.0 Hibernian(2):16 + 2.8 = 18.8 St Mirren(2):16 + 2.0 = 18.0 Hamilton(3):12 + 3.4 = 15.4 Sorry to be pedantic but it's not actually possible to get 8 points out of 3 games. Anyway, to answer the question - points every time. Nothing is certain in football. Everyone is assuming Rangers will win their games in hand and adjusting their calculations accordingly. It's the nature of the beast, 3 games in hand = 9 points, people assume the worst and everything else is a bonus. Rangers could (not likely, but could) lose their games in hand and all of a sudden we are right in there. I'd rather have points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 I've updated the analysis to take account of tonights matches Things are confused by the fact that Rangers vs Inverness was the 3rd meeting of those teams while Inverness have yet to play Dundee united a second time and Rangers are still to play their second game against Dundee Utd, Hearts, St Johnstone, St Mirren Using the same logic as before the game was worth an expected 1.9 to Rangers and 0.8 to Inverness CT Thus Rangers out performed by about a point and Inverness underperformed by about a point Applying these adjustments to the expected values for the first two rounds of fixtures and the result of the Killie versus Hearts match gives us the following picture Rangers: 52.8 Celtic: 51.1 Hearts: 44.9 Kilmarnock: 32.5 Dundee Utd: 30.7 Inverness CT: 28.4 Motherwell: 27.9 St Johnstone: 25.6 Aberdeen: 22.0 Hibernian: 18.8 St Mirren: 18.0 Hamilton: 15.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinmaroon Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I've updated the analysis to take account of tonights matches Things are confused by the fact that Rangers vs Inverness was the 3rd meeting of those teams while Inverness have yet to play Dundee united a second time and Rangers are still to play their second game against Dundee Utd, Hearts, St Johnstone, St Mirren Using the same logic as before the game was worth an expected 1.9 to Rangers and 0.8 to Inverness CT Thus Rangers out performed by about a point and Inverness underperformed by about a point Applying these adjustments to the expected values for the first two rounds of fixtures and the result of the Killie versus Hearts match gives us the following picture Rangers: 52.8 Celtic: 51.1 Hearts: 44.9 Kilmarnock: 32.5 Dundee Utd: 30.7 Inverness CT: 28.4 Motherwell: 27.9 St Johnstone: 25.6 Aberdeen: 22.0 Hibernian: 18.8 St Mirren: 18.0 Hamilton: 15.4 Enjoyed that! My study of New Testament Greek has strange echoes of your passion for stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I've updated the figures. Celtic are the first team to have completed two rounds of figures having played everybody twice and nobody thrice. so Their expected 22 game total is their actual total. Celtic's position now looks slightly stronger Both Rangers and Hearts have to visit tannadice but Rangers have games in hand against Saint Johnstone and Saint Mirren as well as a win in the bag already against Inverness Caledonian Thistle The result is that Hearts are effectively just over 4 points behind Rangers and just over 5 behind Celtic. Celtic: 52+0.0 (from 0) +0.0 52.0 Rangers: 44+5.9 (from 3) +1.1 51.0 Hearts: 45+1.7 (from 1) +0.0 46.7 Kilmarnock: 31+1.5 (from 1) -0.3 32.1 Dundee Utd: 24+6.6 (from 5) -0.4 30.2 Motherwell: 25+3.0 (from 2) +1.3 29.3 Inverness CT: 28+1.2 (from 1) -1.5 27.7 St Johnstone: 22+3.6 (from 3) -0.6 25.1 Aberdeen: 20+1.2 (from 1) +0.0 21.2 St Mirren: 16+2.1 (from 2) -0.2 17.9 Hibernian: 16+2.7 (from 2) -1.1 17.6 Hamilton: 12+3.4 (from 3) +0.0 15.4 More encouragingly that represents a 9 point shortening from the 13 and 14 point gaps that existed after the first round of fixtures Team : 1st 2nd 3rd round Celtic : 30/33 22/33 0/0 Rangers : 31/33 13/24 3/3 Hearts : 17/33 28/30 0/0 Kilmarnock : 13/33 18/30 1/3 Dundee Utd : 17/33 7/18 1/3 Motherwell : 19/33 6/27 3/3 Inverness CT: 15/33 13/30 1/6 St Johnstone: 11/33 11/24 1/3 Aberdeen : 10/33 10/30 0/0 St Mirren : 8/33 8/27 1/3 Hibernian : 8/33 8/27 0/3 Hamilton : 9/33 3/24 1/3 Note that some teams (e.g Hearts and Rangers) ended up playing what should have been their 3rd meeting before the Ibrox game which should have been their 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Points so far+Expected Points up to the split Rangers: 56/23 + 19.6/10 = 75.6/33 Celtic: 58/24 + 17.6/9 = 75.6/33 Hearts: 51/25 + 14.4/8 = 65.4/33 Kilmarnock: 36/25 + 10.8/8 = 46.8/33 Dundee Utd: 29/20 + 17.7/13 = 46.7/33 Motherwell: 31/25 + 10.5/8 = 41.5/33 St Johnstone: 29/23 + 12.5/10 = 41.5/33 Inverness CT: 30/25 + 9.8/8 = 39.8/33 Aberdeen: 23/24 + 10.7/9 = 33.7/33 Hibernian: 22/25 + 9.6/8 = 31.6/33 St Mirren: 19/24 + 9.1/9 = 28.1/33 Hamilton: 14/23 + 10.1/10 = 24.1/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 None of those tables show Hibs getting relegated. Does that mean Hamilton are screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uniwildcat38 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Thanks for the update TC. Looks pretty much as I would have expected - 3rd place sewn up by the split, but the uglies pretty much out of reach. It looks to me as though your prediction method perhaps underestimates the good teams, and overestimates the weak teams. Its predicting ourselves, Rangers and Celtic at less than 2 points per game over the remaining games, while those teams are all above that mark over the games so far. At the other end of the table the bottom 3 are all below a point a game so far, but predicted above it over the remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie-Brown Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Thanks for the update TC. Looks pretty much as I would have expected - 3rd place sewn up by the split, but the uglies pretty much out of reach. It looks to me as though your prediction method perhaps underestimates the good teams, and overestimates the weak teams. Its predicting ourselves, Rangers and Celtic at less than 2 points per game over the remaining games, while those teams are all above that mark over the games so far. At the other end of the table the bottom 3 are all below a point a game so far, but predicted above it over the remaining games. The true value of TC's formula as a predictor tool will of course be the SPL table after 33 games - ie will the teams actually be placed in the predicted order and on approx similar points totals as predicted ... in short how accurate was the predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 None of those tables show Hibs getting relegated. Does that mean Hamilton are screwed? What it shows is that Hamilton's game in hand over Saint Mirren and two games in hand over hibs aren't worth enough to compensate for the gap. Games in hand are only really useful if you're likely to win them Incidentally I'd forgotten to Include Celtic's win over Dundee United so their position looks stronger than Rangers now and Dundee United's position has become weaker but they should still be considered 5th as opposed to 7th Celtic: 61/25 + 15.9/8 = 76.9/33 Rangers: 56/23 + 19.7/10 = 75.7/33 Hearts: 51/25 + 14.5/8 = 65.5/33 Kilmarnock: 36/25 + 10.8/8 = 46.8/33 Dundee Utd: 29/21 + 16.4/12 = 45.4/33 St Johnstone: 29/23 + 12.6/10 = 41.6/33 Motherwell: 31/25 + 10.5/8 = 41.5/33 Inverness CT: 30/25 + 9.9/8 = 39.9/33 Aberdeen: 23/24 + 10.8/9 = 33.8/33 Hibernian: 22/25 + 9.6/8 = 31.6/33 St Mirren: 19/24 + 9.1/9 = 28.1/33 Hamilton: 14/23 + 10.2/10 = 24.2/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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