Glenrothes JKB vote

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I must admit that if will be dissapointing if the SNP havent managed to win this seat, given their confidence before a ball was kicked so to speak. But the fact that people have come out and voted for the SNP in direct opposition has to be looked at as a positive.

 

Do you think that the SNP will be as bullish over a referendum in 2010 now?

[Praha06]

Just look at the puss on Sturgeon.Priceless

 

To be fair, I'd rather not.

[Praha06]

Do you think that the SNP will be as bullish over a referendum in 2010 now?

 

Suffice to say I think both the SNP and Labour will take negatives from today and learn from them.

[jambos are go!]

Ming Campbell saying a Labour win can be seen as nothing other than a TRIUMPH for Big Gordon. Brought a huge grin to my old Labour face.

[davemclaren]

I take your point but this by-election has been characterised as the test of the "Brown bounce". Coupled with Labour arguing (probably to good effect if they hold the seat) that small countries are hardest hit by this economic mess and that the Union protects Scotland (this is a myth but it's Labour's strategy) then the issues seem to be around testing Scotland's ability to stand alone.

 

Therefore, if the Nats can't win it after winning Central Fife in 2005 I think they are the real losers.

 

I think the 'Brown bounce' will be shortlived given the economic clouds overhead.

[yvonnejambo]

I must admit that if will be dissapointing if the SNP havent managed to win this seat, given their confidence before a ball was kicked so to speak. But the fact that people have come out and voted for the SNP in direct opposition has to be looked at as a positive.

 

Yeah I agree, but its all still going in the right direction for SNP. Glasgow East was an amazing achievement for the SNP and this would just be icing on the cake tonight. If it goes to Labour tonight they wont have any room to be smug, all they can do is have a quick sigh of relief that they have some backing left in Browns territory.

[shaun.lawson]

I think the 'Brown bounce' will be shortlived given the economic clouds overhead.

 

I think the Brown bounce will be enduring because of the economic clouds overhead.

[davemclaren]

I think the Brown bounce will be enduring because of the economic clouds overhead.

 

Why is that? He's been viewed as rescuing the banking system but I doubt he can act as Canute and prevent a bad recession

[shaun.lawson]

Why is that? He's been viewed as rescuing the banking system but I doubt he can act as Canute and prevent a bad recession

 

Because in times of economic strife, voters cling to nurse for fear of something worse. Like Brown, albeit for a much briefer period, John Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer before acceeding to the Premiership amid mounting recession. In 1992, panicked by the sense that Labour did not have a clue how to handle such circumstances, the electorate convincingly returned the Tories for a fourth term. The same mechanics are at work again: 'rewarding' Labour despite their responsibility for all this makes more sense when set against the complete lack of evidence that either Cameron or the SNP have any real economic credibility.

 

The next eighteen months in British politics will make for fascinating viewing: battle has been well and truly rejoined.

[systemx]

Yeah I agree, but its all still going in the right direction for SNP. Glasgow East was an amazing achievement for the SNP and this would just be icing on the cake tonight. If it goes to Labour tonight they wont have any room to be smug, all they can do is have a quick sigh of relief that they have some backing left in Browns territory.

 

SorryYvonne,but The SNP won the same seat just over 18 months ago.I will repeat,when the going got rough the smirk went missing.

[davemclaren]

Because in times of economic strife, voters cling to nurse for fear of something worse. Like Brown, albeit for a much briefer period, John Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer before acceeding to the Premiership amid mounting recession. In 1992, panicked by the sense that Labour did not have a clue how to handle such circumstances, the electorate convincingly returned the Tories for a fourth term. The same mechanics are at work again: 'rewarding' Labour despite their responsibility for all this makes more sense when set against the complete lack of evidence that either Cameron or the SNP have any real economic credibility.

 

The next eighteen months in British politics will make for fascinating viewing: battle has been well and truly rejoined.

 

Could be right, better the devil you know and all that.

[davemclaren]

SorryYvonne,but The SNP won the same seat just over 18 months ago.I will repeat,when the going got rough the smirk went missing.

 

The scottish parliament constituency is different ( smaller ), but I take your point.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Because in times of economic strife, voters cling to nurse for fear of something worse. Like Brown, albeit for a much briefer period, John Major was Chancellor of the Exchequer before acceeding to the Premiership amid mounting recession. In 1992, panicked by the sense that Labour did not have a clue how to handle such circumstances, the electorate convincingly returned the Tories for a fourth term. The same mechanics are at work again: 'rewarding' Labour despite their responsibility for all this makes more sense when set against the complete lack of evidence that either Cameron or the SNP have any real economic credibility.

 

The next eighteen months in British politics will make for fascinating viewing: battle has been well and truly rejoined.

 

And it's now time for the Tories to spell out their economic policy. Cameron pretending to be the "heir of Blair" has never been a strategy that could last. The Tories should spell out, for example, why targeting waste in the public sector is virtuous, especially targeting the Labour "client state" of non-jobs.

 

British politics is interesting again.

 

As for the SNP, they have to realise that being the "left" alternative to Labour isn't sufficient to build a powerbase. People generally vote as to what is in their best personal interests and the SNP have to explain what they can do within the Scottish Parliament as well as outline what they can't do.

[systemx]

looks like Labour majority about 5000.SNP who have spent more here than Glasgow East getting there excuses in early.BTW where is the Toggie man?Still birling on a Glenrothes roundabout methinks

[davemclaren]

looks like Labour majority about 5000.SNP who have spent more here than Glasgow East getting there excuses in early.BTW where is the Toggie man?Still birling on a Glenrothes roundabout methinks

 

He'll be at the party afterwards....

[blairdin]

SorryYvonne,but The SNP won the same seat just over 18 months ago.I will repeat,when the going got rough the smirk went missing.

 

Fair comment, but ultimately this was a Westminster seat and not a Holyrood seat.

 

Brown's being hailed as some kind of messiah at the moment for apparently steering the UK through the global financial crisis. That's what has won Labour this by-election. Nothing else.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Fair comment, but ultimately this was a Westminster seat and not a Holyrood seat.

 

Brown's being hailed as some kind of messiah at the moment for apparently steering the UK through the global financial crisis. That's what has won Labour this by-election. Nothing else.

 

The reality is somewhat different. The UK is going to be the hardest hit developed economy next year when the recession is in full force.

 

The test for Brown is how to appear "statesmanlike" amongst the rising dole queues and repossessions, along with the appalling public debt.

[shaun.lawson]

And it's now time for the Tories to spell out their economic policy. Cameron pretending to be the "heir of Blair" has never been a strategy that could last. The Tories should spell out, for example, why targeting waste in the public sector is virtuous, especially targeting the Labour "client state" of non-jobs.

 

British politics is interesting again.

 

As for the SNP, they have to realise that being the "left" alternative to Labour isn't sufficient to build a powerbase. People generally vote as to what is in their best personal interests and the SNP have to explain what they can do within the Scottish Parliament as well as outline what they can't do.

 

I'm sure the Tories will continue to argue that they can't set out detailed economic policy until they know what the prevailing conditions are likely to be. They're not wrong either: this is certainly no time for orthodoxy or dogma. Probably every opposition since the dawn of time has spoken off 'cutting government waste', Geoff - McCain did so in the US too - but it's a drop in the ocean compared with the level of cuts which may well prove necessary if things prove as serious as so many now fear.

 

I think Cameron's strategy of stylising himself as Blair's natural heir has always made sense: Middle England are the key in any election, just as the C2s were in Thatcher and Major's time. The trouble is, most of what happens between now and the election is out of his sphere of influence: oppositions don't win elections. Governments lose them. And Brown looks happier amid this crisis than he has in years.

[blairdin]

The reality is somewhat different. The UK is going to be the hardest hit developed economy next year when the recession is in full force.

 

The test for Brown is how to appear "statesmanlike" amongst the rising dole queues and repossessions, along with the appalling public debt.

 

Couldn't agree more Geoff. I can't see Brown passing that test.

 

If this by-election was 12 months on from now, I don't think Labour would have won it. Towns like Glenrothes will be among the hardest hit when the recession lands. The general election in 2010 is going to be interesting.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I'm sure the Tories will continue to argue that they can't set out detailed economic policy until they know what the prevailing conditions are likely to be. They're not wrong either: this is certainly no time for orthodoxy or dogma. Probably every opposition since the dawn of time has spoken off 'cutting government waste', Geoff - McCain did so in the US too - but it's a drop in the ocean compared with the level of cuts which may well prove necessary if things prove as serious as so many now fear.

 

I think Cameron's strategy of stylising himself as Blair's natural heir has always made sense: Middle England are the key in any election, just as the C2s were in Thatcher and Major's time. The trouble is, most of what happens between now and the election is out of his sphere of influence: oppositions don't win elections. Governments lose them. And Brown looks happier amid this crisis than he has in years.

 

And that's the key issue - the economy. As I said above, Brown and Darling have no room for manoeuvre, in theory, on public spending yet it won't stop them trying. The real risk for the UK in the next 12 months is a fully blown sterling crisis because that would make things even worse.

[systemx]

Fair comment, but ultimately this was a Westminster seat and not a Holyrood seat.

 

Brown's being hailed as some kind of messiah at the moment for apparently steering the UK through the global financial crisis. That's what has won Labour this by-election. Nothing else.

 

Think I can agree with that blairdin.But halfway through a third term in the midst off financial meltdown and a Prime Minister who was in charge of finances for the last decade,dont you agree Labour should be trounced?

Just an aside but just watch the SNP in local government things are starting to get hard there ,they have never had to take hard decisions and blamed Labour for everything now that those hard decisions are having to be taken they are struggling.

[Charlie-Brown]

Politics is dead & politicians nowadays are bland, they used be to be instantly recognisable figures from the likes of Heseltine, Clark, Hird, Howe, Gummer, Portillo, Ri****d, Howard etc of the Tories and Prescott, Brown, Straw, Dewar, Smith, Healey, Benn, Kinnock etc......now they are faceless nobodies - party apparatchiks etc.

[systemx]

6500 maj and Sheridans party 89 votes

[shaun.lawson]

And that's the key issue - the economy. As I said above, Brown and Darling have no room for manoeuvre, in theory, on public spending yet it won't stop them trying. The real risk for the UK in the next 12 months is a fully blown sterling crisis because that would make things even worse.

 

Will it? It might sound daft - but I'm generally a fan of devaluations. As a student of them in history, they're almost always feared at the time for reasons of national prestige and vanity, yet almost always improve the reality on the ground. If sterling is even now at an unnaturally high level, it should be forced down. The 1992 devaluation was the ultimate example: the unparalleled period of prosperity which followed happened as a direct consequence.

 

EDIT: Labour majority in Glenrothes of over 6,000. Stunning result for them; shocking defeat for the SNP. Salmond's honeymoon is well and truly at an end.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Will it? It might sound daft - but I'm generally a fan of devaluations. As a student of them in history, they're almost always feared at the time for reasons of national prestige and vanity, yet almost always improve the reality on the ground. If sterling is even now at an unnaturally high level, it should be forced down. The 1992 devaluation was the ultimate example: the unparalleled period of prosperity which followed happened as a direct consequence.

 

EDIT: Labour majority in Glenrothes of over 6,000. Stunning result for them; shocking defeat for the SNP. Salmond's honeymoon is well and truly at an end.

 

You're forgetting that the pound has already been effectively devalued. A sterling crisis, on the other hand, occurs when the government can't sell debt to pay its bills.

[shaun.lawson]

Politics is dead & politicians nowadays are bland, they used be to be instantly recognisable figures from the likes of Heseltine, Clark, Hird, Howe, Gummer, Portillo, Ri****d, Howard etc of the Tories and Prescott, Brown, Straw, Dewar, Smith, Healey, Benn, Kinnock etc......now they are faceless nobodies - party apparatchiks etc.

 

These things are cyclical, Charlie. At least politics are interesting here again now - and the turnout for a close, unpredictable 2010 election should be high. Bush was elected in 2000 greatly because many US voters stayed at home because, get this, they could see no difference between him and Gore: events soon diabused them of this, and eight years on, they've just had the highest turnout and most exciting election in living memory. It'll happen here again too in time.

[Corrie Jambo]

Who's idea was it to pick someone called "Peter Grant" in Central Fife!!!

 

I am not sectarian but many in the Fife are are.

 

Glad of the decision - Gordon Brown for an early spring election in 2009.

[Rawrrrrrrr]

FTSNP!!!

[jambos are go!]

Unbelievable that the Labour vote actually went up in actual numerical terms compared to the last General Election with the SNP getting largely tactical votes from the other parties. Great news this week that folk from California to Cardenden know this is a time to look left again - thats were the brains are!!!

 

Goodnight!!!

[Commander Harris]

Who's idea was it to pick someone called "Peter Grant" in Central Fife!!!

 

I am not sectarian but many in the Fife are are.

 

Glad of the decision - Gordon Brown for an early spring election in 2009.

if a man called Mason can win in Glasgow East I don't think the electorate are that blinded by such things.

[systemx]

Labour have retained the Forth ward on Edinburgh council and Baillieston ward in Glasgow East

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Labour have retained the Forth ward on Edinburgh council and Baillieston ward in Glasgow East

 

More bad news for Salmond then.

 

It will be interesting to see how he reacts to this. If he has any sense, he should focus on policy in the Scottish Parliament because he's up against nothing.

[portobellojambo1]

Looks as if the actual Labour vote has increased, SNP %age vote up by around the same number as the Liberal Party vote went down, which sort of explains where they have got their additional votes from.

 

Not a supporter of The Labour Party, not a big follower of by elections in general, but anything/one who fecks the SNP is alright in my book.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Looks as if the actual Labour vote has increased, SNP %age vote up by around the same number as the Liberal Party vote went down, which sort of explains where they have got their additional votes from.

 

Not a supporter of The Labour Party, not a big follower of by elections in general, but anything/one who fecks the SNP is alright in my book.

 

It looks like some Tories switched to the SNP in an attempt to give Brown a bloody nose as well but Labour took votes back off the SNP (the "soft nats").

 

I suppose it also exposes the Lib Dumbs, yet again, as only being useful for a protest vote.

[speedbump]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2008/11/informed_gossip.html

 

Labour vote up 3.2%

[Heaven98]

So as far as I can work out from this thread, it's:

 

Tuesday - America - Obama - The World - Global Love-in

 

Thursday - Glenrothes - Salmond - Fife - Incest

 

I think I know where I'd rather be.

[Louise]

Wish the BBC presenters would stop looking so pleased with themselves and going on and on about how it's a result for Gordon Brown. In the last week they have confirmed through their own reporting just how corrupt that organisation is ...

[Heaven98]

Wish the BBC presenters would stop looking so pleased with themselves and going on and on about how it's a result for Gordon Brown. In the last week they have confirmed through their own reporting just how corrupt that organisation is ...

 

Out here, Louise, they still see the BBC as the gold standard of non-partisan reporting. In general, it's probably fair but I can honestly say that not even once in the past three years - and I am quite happy for my compatriots to contradict this - have I ever heard the name of David Cameron mentioned as a person of remote consequence. And below that, it's way too much effort to explain that Salmond actually presides over an elected branch. He could turn up here tomorrow and everybody would go "Oh we love Scotland...Rabbie Burns, Dublin, Margaret Thatcher.."

 

Oh I forgot Mel Gibson...

[Boris]

Not surprised the SNP lost.

 

I mean, could you bring yourself to vote for someone called Peter Grant?

[Heaven98]

Led Zep rule. Democracy at work.

[yvonnejambo]

People are still voting on the poll .Glory hunters!

[Heaven98]

People are still voting on the poll .Glory hunters!

 

Oh stop it. That's a terrible bump.

[$ilvery_Moon]

A fantastic victory and a massive humiliation for the SNP. Not even close in the end.

 

"The Glasgow East and Glenrothes by-elections put us well on our way to reach our target of 20 MPs at the Westminster election."

 

 

Hahahaha. Not so smug now. Bet he feels more than a bit stupid.

[Heaven98]

The epitome of a smug git. All round, it's been a good week at the ballot box.

[jambos are go!]

Glentrothes shows that when push comes to shove there is still massive support for the Union IMO.

[deesidejambo]

Glentrothes shows that when push comes to shove there is still massive support for the Union IMO.

 

 

Yes I think that the SNP train has stopped in its tracks. I was quite impressed with the way they govern Scotland but they were following on from a dreadful Labour administration. However, when it comes to the Union, I think they will fall well short. I just don't think there is enough support for Independence and when the day comes for the referendum I think they will be sunk.

[southlondonjambo]

Great to see the parasitic subsidy junkie Scots brought down a peg or two....

 

After the last year or so of bragging about 'oor oil' and how they are going to march towards independence and 'frrreeeedoomm!!!', Glenrothes shows they've reverted to their selfish sponging type, scuttling back underneath their tartan rock to live the high life on the English taxpayers' expense.

 

Scotland the Brave? Don't make me laugh! Make no mistake, this is utter humiliation for the Jockos. Brilliant.

[Guest S.U.S.S.]

Thank god, perhaps we wont have to listen to the fat bigot prattle on for a day or two.

[jambos are go!]

Great to see the parasitic subsidy junkie Scots brought down a peg or two....

 

After the last year or so of bragging about 'oor oil' and how they are going to march towards independence and 'frrreeeedoomm!!!', Glenrothes shows they've reverted to their selfish sponging type, scuttling back underneath their tartan rock to live the high life on the English taxpayers' expense.

 

Scotland the Brave? Don't make me laugh! Make no mistake, this is utter humiliation for the Jockos. Brilliant.

 

UNionist to the core but let me point out that Londoners get a lot more public spending per head than the Scots. Not much known that. The SNP have to be praised for the way they challenged conventional thinking at Holyrood just as Livingstone did as London Mayor. More devolution is needed so that regions can decide their own spending priorities.

[Guest S.U.S.S.]

Great to see the parasitic subsidy junkie Scots brought down a peg or two....

 

After the last year or so of bragging about 'oor oil' and how they are going to march towards independence and 'frrreeeedoomm!!!', Glenrothes shows they've reverted to their selfish sponging type, scuttling back underneath their tartan rock to live the high life on the English taxpayers' expense.

 

Scotland the Brave? Don't make me laugh! Make no mistake, this is utter humiliation for the Jockos. Brilliant.

 

Someone sounds bitter, a Jock been pounding your wife?