Edinburgh Hotel space - kinda Hearts related

[Coco]

Perhaps, and I may be wrong but is it not the case that all these subprime mortgage backed assets that have caught out a lot of the banks in W Europe and US were precisely packaged up as property and therefore supposedly safe triple A securities? I cannot imagine UKIO went into them in any big way if at all, as they seem to be a bank that invests directly in property ie aluminium plants and even Hearts...

 

Banks simply cannot afford to sit on piles of cash - which is part of the reason why RBS went for ABN Amro. Also, there is money to be made in a downward market as well as an upward one.

 

It is possible for small institutions far from America to be losing their money on subprime investments

 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/28/business/bank.php

 

Though I don't think that there is any evidence that Ukio Bankas have done anything like this, though lending to Hearts could to some extent prior to the debt/equity swap could have been construed as subprime lending. Nonetheless, they are too small in any case to be funding the Tynecastle development.

[JamboAl]

I'm fully aware UBIG own Hearts !!

 

UBIG could not find a buyer for Hearts in it's present state.

 

For the record :

 

No I would not have prefered the CPR scenario.

 

I will delighted if this pans out the way I think it will.

 

If it means getting rid of VR and leasing Tynecastle - I'm all for it.

 

I don't think it will pan out the way you think it will. Firstly UBIG have been actively seeking partners with funding for this project so, if successful, it is likely there will be several joint owners (or a company with several stakeholders). You may well be right that the football side will separate on completion but it is UBIG who own (95%) us not Romanov and by the time completion arrives Romanov will be past retirement age anyway. There is nothing to stop the club being part of the consortium but that would depend on who the big players are and what is their attitude to football as a money-making enterprise or simply as an advertising vehicle. Now this may seem fanciful but if you listen to Laszlo he seems keen to have a conveyor belt of good young talent who may develop into hugely saleable assets while regular entry into Europe guarantees sponsors names being flashed across European TV. Just a thought.

[Drylaw Hearts]

So far he has made a million from Velicka, and the salaries of the duds will be covered by that.

 

IIRC he didn't make ?1million from Velicka it was more like ?600,000 rising to ?1million based on appearences.

 

He obviously didn't make many appeatences for Viking before moving to the weej.

 

IMO many of the Kaunas guys were stop-gap. The real focus is on the Academy. The money that has been cut out are the big salaries to established talent, not the funding of the club at grassroots.

 

We had around 11 players from Lithuania at one point - I'm not sure they were 'gap filling'.

 

VR had already made at clear when he attempted takeovers at several other Scottish Clubs that bringing in Lithuanians to showcase was his main aim.

 

Why would this plan suddenly change at Hearts ?

 

The money that has been cut out are the big salaries to established talent, not the funding of the club at grassroots.

 

There has been money cut from several areas I hear - one being Travel and Hotel bills.

 

We can challenge the OF over a sustained period but the club must grow within it's means first, not just through the largesse of a sugar-daddy. Young players are the future at Hearts. Sure we are all waiting for the new stand etc and that is the only sure sign of ambition, but what is the point of being defeatist about our prospects? If everyone took a "we cannot" view on things, we'd all still be scraping a life, hand to mouth, in caves...

 

It looks a good idea in Black & White but do you not think this is what every club outwith the OF is doing ?

 

They know they can't compete financially so they look to the youth and bargin basement signings.

 

This isn't a new concept.

 

 

To compete we need to sign players closer to the standard of the OF and throw in a few players who've finished Top of the Class from the Academy.

 

Twice in the last 10 years we've done that and twice we've managed to give them a run for their money.

 

 

VR will have to spend money on buying players or paying big salaries to take on the OF if not......

 

we will continue to fight for 3rd along with Aberdeen, Dundee Utd, Hibs etc etc.

[Drylaw Hearts]

I don't think it will pan out the way you think it will. Firstly UBIG have been actively seeking partners with funding for this project so, if successful, it is likely there will be several joint owners (or a company with several stakeholders). You may well be right that the football side will separate on completion but it is UBIG who own (95%) us not Romanov and by the time completion arrives Romanov will be past retirement age anyway. There is nothing to stop the club being part of the consortium but that would depend on who the big players are and what is their attitude to football as a money-making enterprise or simply as an advertising vehicle. Now this may seem fanciful but if you listen to Laszlo he seems keen to have a conveyor belt of good young talent who may develop into hugely saleable assets while regular entry into Europe guarantees sponsors names being flashed across European TV. Just a thought.

 

Do you honestly see a long term relationship between UBIG and Hearts or VR and Hearts ?

 

I'll give it another 3 years - max.

[tolcross lad]

Interestingly an insurance company essentially owned by the richest man in the world (Warren Buffet) has just recently stopped insuring banks over sums guaranteed by the American government.

 

As sure a sign as anything that there are a whole new traunch of bank failures about to hit the market place

 

There may be generic percentage targets of investment but I think pre-prescribed investment levels will be subject to change when the entire world financing system is grinding to a halt.

 

The safest place for a banks money at present is in its own accounts

 

I have not a clue what qualifies you for this statement?If you are correct in this opinion then we are all up sh**tcreek without a paddle.

As a layman I am more optimistic.Some difficult times ahead in the short term but things picking up in 2 years time.My opinion is formed by listening to economic commentators on radio and tv and dont ask me who.

[Jammy T]

I have not a clue what qualifies you for this statement?If you are correct in this opinion then we are all up sh**tcreek without a paddle.

As a layman I am more optimistic.Some difficult times ahead in the short term but things picking up in 2 years time.My opinion is formed by listening to economic commentators on radio and tv and dont ask me who.

 

Oh I'm not qualified at all. Just an interest in economics and the current situation

 

There is an article somewhere on the net about this - the article confirms that the reality of this is problematic, and this opinion is one I share.

 

Not meaning to misrepresent anything - just trying to add to the debate

[Seymour M Hersh]

Let's just hope that uncle Sam nationalising Freedy Mac and Fannie May will allow the banks a breathing space to ease their liquidity problems. Dunno what UKIO's indirect exposure to US subprime is but these measures must help.

 

Once confidence in interbank lending returns and (US) domestic property prices start to level out, the heat will be turned down and we can get on with the rest of our lives - until the next economic shock

 

Zero, they are coming out of this smiling.

[Coco]

Zero, they are coming out of this smiling.

 

Share price is down by 43% in the last year. Lithuanian stock market down by 26% in the same period. So better than some other banks across the world, but hardly smiling.

[JamboAl]

Do you honestly see a long term relationship between UBIG and Hearts or VR and Hearts ?

 

I'll give it another 3 years - max.

 

That's a difficult question to answer - and I'm not trying to avoid it. One week is a long time in politics and three years is an eternity in business. Just over a year ago we all implicitly trusted our banks: how things have changed.

 

Whatever our plans they'll be subject to change as circumstances arise eg if we attract good wealthy capitalists for our ground project then the best case scenario can unfold: if we don't, our best plans will be cut back or scrapped. The length of his/their stay thereafter will no doubt be governed by what sort of future return they project can be got either by selling or staying.

I ask you again to look at Laszlo's plans which roughly seem to be

Sign promising youngsters and develop them through U17/U19/ U23 which will be the reserve team

These teams to provide ready made replacements for the 1st team.

Older players up to 28 to provide a bit of balance/experience.

Layabouts to be disposed of (his most recent comments)

There is therefore a natural progression to the 1st team with probably only the outstanding lads cutting corners. All/most will have a sale value.

Now will UBIG stay and reap these benefits if they come to fruition or will they sell the club as an attractive ongoing proposition. I don't know.

[Only a Game]

Geoff - my original note seems to suggest it does.

 

You'd hardly expect 3 tourism chiefs to do anything other than support their industry and the building of a new hotel.

 

The 50% growth in tourism into Scotland, with Edinburgh as the gateway to the rest of Scotland (as it already is) is pure wish-list type fantasy. Its about as valid and as likely to happen as Romanov saying that Hearts would destroy the Old Firm domination of Scottish football. It simply isnt going to happen.

 

The night before in the EEN we had another, nore enlightened tourism chief be-moaning how occupancy was down 1% in Edinburgh in August 2008 and how its down 5.3 % on the year and about the same for the remainder of the year.

 

This is not a trend that is going to reverse itself any time soon in this economic climate. Most major hotels are budgeting for 7% less occupancy next year as compared to this year. Thats a drop in forecast occupancy of over 10% in two short years

 

There is absolutely NO NEED for 4000 extra hotel beds, now or in five years time or in ten years time as they wont be filled until Edinburgh gets it act together as an international destination instead of falling behind its other major competitors, as it has been doing for the last 5 years. We've got a castle, some pretty buildings, a 3 week festival and a tattoo and precious little else, especially anything that would attract major conferences or events.

 

The Edinburgh tourism chiefs have got their heads so far buried in the sand that they failed to support Murrayfield as a non sporting event venue when the feckin neighbours were objecting to the noise, a result of which is that Murrayfield is not currently permitted to hold music events. Edinburgh is also desperate for a world class large conference venue and what did they do. They made provision for an extra 425 capacity in the EICC and thought it would solve everything. Feckin numpties !!!

 

 

Its things like that, from the same people who are charged with growing inbound tourism into Edinburgh and Scotland, that make you realise it isnt going to happen.

 

Its absolute garbage this 50% growth and need for 4000 extra beds Its not needed and It isnt going to happen and they know it isnt going to happen.

[Independence]

Do you honestly see a long term relationship between UBIG and Hearts or VR and Hearts ?

 

I'll give it another 3 years - max.

 

Well having read your 'one sided' posts over the last year I can say unquestionably that you have been wrong many times before and no doubt you will be wrong again!

 

Time will tell!!!

[Drylaw Hearts]

Well having read your 'one sided' posts over the last year I can say unquestionably that you have been wrong many times before and no doubt you will be wrong again!

 

Time will tell!!!

 

I have also been right many times before.

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

You'd hardly expect 3 tourism chiefs to do anything other than support their industry and the building of a new hotel.

 

The 50% growth in tourism into Scotland, with Edinburgh as the gateway to the rest of Scotland (as it already is) is pure wish-list type fantasy. Its about as valid and as likely to happen as Romanov saying that Hearts would destroy the Old Firm domination of Scottish football. It simply isnt going to happen.

 

The night before in the EEN we had another, nore enlightened tourism chief be-moaning how occupancy was down 1% in Edinburgh in August 2008 and how its down 5.3 % on the year and about the same for the remainder of the year.

 

This is not a trend that is going to reverse itself any time soon in this economic climate. Most major hotels are budgeting for 7% less occupancy next year as compared to this year. Thats a drop in forecast occupancy of over 10% in two short years

 

There is absolutely NO NEED for 4000 extra hotel beds, now or in five years time or in ten years time as they wont be filled until Edinburgh gets it act together as an international destination instead of falling behind its other major competitors, as it has been doing for the last 5 years. We've got a castle, some pretty buildings, a 3 week festival and a tattoo and precious little else, especially anything that would attract major conferences or events.

 

The Edinburgh tourism chiefs have got their heads so far buried in the sand that they failed to support Murrayfield as a non sporting event venue when the feckin neighbours were objecting to the noise, a result of which is that Murrayfield is not currently permitted to hold music events. Edinburgh is also desperate for a world class large conference venue and what did they do. They made provision for an extra 425 capacity in the EICC and thought it would solve everything. Feckin numpties !!!

 

 

Its things like that, from the same people who are charged with growing inbound tourism into Edinburgh and Scotland, that make you realise it isnt going to happen.

 

Its absolute garbage this 50% growth and need for 4000 extra beds Its not needed and It isnt going to happen and they know it isnt going to happen.

 

A laudable post OAG but what are you basing your medium term comments on? Are you in the hospitality industry or is this just personal opinion?

[Jammy T]

A laudable post OAG but what are you basing your medium term comments on? Are you in the hospitality industry or is this just personal opinion?

 

Fair question

 

At the start of this year you had nearly every mortgage provider and/or estate agent group saying that house price growth would be stagnant. To expect 0% growth. Scotland and Edinburgh would be fine as it hadnt had the same price surge as England, blah blah yada yada

 

This was classic optimism bias / denial / spin by people with a financial interest in the market "bigging it up" or at least not dragging it down

 

Whereas, independent economists have been predicting this correction for around 18 months.

 

It would be interesting to hear what some sort of independent economist would have to say about holiday trends for the near to medium term.

[jamboinglasgow]

Fair question

 

At the start of this year you had nearly every mortgage provider and/or estate agent group saying that house price growth would be stagnant. To expect 0% growth. Scotland and Edinburgh would be fine as it hadnt had the same price surge as England, blah blah yada yada

 

This was classic optimism bias / denial / spin by people with a financial interest in the market "bigging it up" or at least not dragging it down

 

Whereas, independent economists have been predicting this correction for around 18 months.

 

It would be interesting to hear what some sort of independent economist would have to say about holiday trends for the near to medium term.

 

an econimist would say that on the whole tourism will be at the same level just where people are coming from will change. We may get less foregin tourists in this slowdown but we will get more British tourists who come up taking weekend deals or week long holidays as it is cheaper. However with the pound becoming weaker against the dollar than that might be the boost that the tourist industry needs as it can encourage those cautious american tourists as it becomes cheaper for them to come here.

[Jammy T]

an econimist would say that on the whole tourism will be at the same level just where people are coming from will change. We may get less foregin tourists in this slowdown but we will get more British tourists who come up taking weekend deals or week long holidays as it is cheaper. However with the pound becoming weaker against the dollar than that might be the boost that the tourist industry needs as it can encourage those cautious american tourists as it becomes cheaper for them to come here.

 

Are you an economist??

 

I think the majority, or at least a very healthy chunk, of hotel rooms in Edinburgh are taken up by business trips?

[JamboAl]

I have also been right many times before.

 

 

That suggests you only have a 50% success rate. Not good.

[jamboinglasgow]

Are you an economist??

 

I think the majority, or at least a very healthy chunk, of hotel rooms in Edinburgh are taken up by business trips?

 

I'm an almost econimist, took it for 2 years at uni, and was close to doing it for honours but changed last minute to history:p

 

I think you would be correct that quite a few hotel rooms are taken up by business trips but I dont think that will go down as much as you may think.

[Jammy T]

That suggests you only have a 50% success rate. Not good.

 

To be fair it is probably a higher percentage hit than those on the other side of the fence

 

Won the SPL - X

Challenging in Europe - X

New Stand - X

Planning permission - X

Lower debt - X

Better football - X

Better players - X

Better league position - X

 

Still at Tynecastle - check

Better crowds - check

 

[Jammy T]

I'm an almost econimist, took it for 2 years at uni, and was close to doing it for honours but changed last minute to history:p

 

I think you would be correct that quite a few hotel rooms are taken up by business trips but I dont think that will go down as much as you may think.

 

Going down is one thing and that is debatable I agree

 

Increasing to the extent that we need 4000 additional rooms is another

 

ps combine the history and economy stuff, check out 1929 - we're not far off this being the worst since then...

[Drylaw Hearts]

That suggests you only have a 50% success rate. Not good.

 

But is it bad ?

[jamboinglasgow]

ps combine the history and economy stuff, check out 1929 - we're not far off this being the worst since then...

 

 

are really though, yes there is a recession about to hit us but in no way is it going to be as bad 1929. Banks have suffered and some will go out of business but they will recover over the next 2 years and in that time we will be out of recession. About the time the new stand and hotel is expected to be finished. As someone said before it may be best to build now rather so that the hotels are ready to take the pickup in custom. Though if hearts get another party to cover the cost of building the hotel and the running Idont see why we should be so worried about the hotel sector, as it is notas much in our hands the hotel.

 

Also I took economic and social history which combined the two.

[Jammy T]

are really though, yes there is a recession about to hit us but in no way is it going to be as bad 1929. Banks have suffered and some will go out of business but they will recover over the next 2 years and in that time we will be out of recession. About the time the new stand and hotel is expected to be finished. As someone said before it may be best to build now rather so that the hotels are ready to take the pickup in custom. Though if hearts get another party to cover the cost of building the hotel and the running Idont see why we should be so worried about the hotel sector, as it is notas much in our hands the hotel.

 

Also I took economic and social history which combined the two.

 

If the Chancellor of the Exchequer is confessing that this is the worst economic situation for 60 years, you can almost guarantee that the reality is worse than that!

 

The most recent economic collapse elsewhere in the world (Japan) took banks out. They didnt START to recover for 10 years, and even now are hardly blazing a trail...

 

Banks are just the first wave of financial problems....insurance will be next!

[davieholt]

If the Chancellor of the Exchequer is confessing that this is the worst economic situation for 60 years, you can almost guarantee that the reality is worse than that!

 

The most recent economic collapse elsewhere in the world (Japan) took banks out. They didnt START to recover for 10 years, and even now are hardly blazing a trail...

 

Banks are just the first wave of financial problems....insurance will be next!

 

Japan was a special situation. All the major corporations and banks had cross holdings so when the banks got into trouble they brought down a whole house of cards.

 

We are in a slightly different position in that the banks are holding back from lending because their tier 1 / tier 2 capital base has suffered due to exposure to US sub-prime.

 

The banks are only allowed to take deposits (and therefore lend) up to a multiple of their capital.

 

Hopefully the action taken in the US to effectively nationalise Fannie May etc will draw a line under the sub-prime fiasco and allow the banks to recover and house prices here to stabilise. This will undoubtedly take some time but there is no reason to think that we are entering a 1929 scenario.

[jamboinglasgow]

If the Chancellor of the Exchequer is confessing that this is the worst economic situation for 60 years, you can almost guarantee that the reality is worse than that!

 

The most recent economic collapse elsewhere in the world (Japan) took banks out. They didnt START to recover for 10 years, and even now are hardly blazing a trail...

 

Banks are just the first wave of financial problems....insurance will be next!

 

I am quite cynical of what Darling has said about 60 years. To me it is a bad economic situation at the momment but is it any worse then the troubles of the 70's. But doubt a labour chancellor would say that as it was under a labour government that went wrong.

 

I think darling is trying to make the picture sound worse so that when the economy improves it may seem that he has done really well since. Also its incrediably irreponsable for the chancellor of the exchequer to paint such a bleak picture of the economy as it hits confidence and could lead to a worse economy. His dithering over stamp duty holidays has already done damage to the house market as new buyers wait to see what happens. What is needed now is a chancellor who is prepared to stick his head on the line and make tough but nessecary economic descisions.

 

As for Japan, it is a interesting example of what can happen with banks in a country however stagflation is a problem for this country as normally inflation rates and unemployment do the opposite of the other but here we are stuck in a period of rising inflation and unemployment. It can still be controlled and i think the goverment may have to temporary nationalise a few banks but if the banking sector could be brought under control then the economy could start ticking again. Prices need to be controlled and demand increased which could ignite the economy, but it needs bold policies which I think the current government are too scared to do.

[davieholt]

Sorry, meant to add that in Japan the stockmarket was horribly overvalued. P/E ratios of over 100 were not uncommon - a real emperor's clothes situation. It was always going to end in tears but investors refused to recognise the obvious.

[Jammy T]

This will undoubtedly take some time but there is no reason to think that we are entering a 1929 scenario.

 

And there is nothing to establish that we definitely are not.

 

Some people shared similar views to you 80 years ago:

 

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."

 

- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

 

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."

 

- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

 

"... a serious depression seems improbable"

 

- Harvard Economic Society, November 10, 1929

 

I didnt say the Japan situation was the same, just that it was an example that it is not inevitable that this is a little blip. I doubt Japan thought it was going to stagnate for 10 years when its problems started either...

[davieholt]

And there is nothing to establish that we definitely are not.

 

Some people shared similar views to you 80 years ago:

 

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."

 

- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

 

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."

 

- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

 

"... a serious depression seems improbable"

 

- Harvard Economic Society, November 10, 1929

 

I didnt say the Japan situation was the same, just that it was an example that it is not inevitable that this is a little blip. I doubt Japan thought it was going to stagnate for 10 years when its problems started either...

 

 

Correct. There are no guarantees.

 

The markets and the economy are largely driven by confidence (or lack of it) - a bit like Hearts

[redm]

To be fair it is probably a higher percentage hit than those on the other side of the fence

 

Won the SPL - X

Challenging in Europe - X

New Stand - X

Planning permission - X

Lower debt - X

Better football - X

Better players - X

Better league position - X

 

Still at Tynecastle - check

Better crowds - check

 

 

And who said that? Vladimir. Nobody here. You're such a sensationalist....

[Jammy T]

And who said that? Vladimir. Nobody here. You're such a sensationalist....

 

By default, people that back Vlad and his aspirations.....

 

Seriously, the reality is that DH is being attacked for being wrong some of the time re his opinions and criticisms by someone that is very much pro-Romanov, or at least anti anti-Vlads.

 

The reality is though there is very little for the more pro-Romanov people to point to back them being right.

 

Its all still to pan out.

 

I guess it was easier to ridicule Gallileo than it was to back him....

[PTBCAL]

You'd hardly expect 3 tourism chiefs to do anything other than support their industry and the building of a new hotel.

 

The 50% growth in tourism into Scotland, with Edinburgh as the gateway to the rest of Scotland (as it already is) is pure wish-list type fantasy. Its about as valid and as likely to happen as Romanov saying that Hearts would destroy the Old Firm domination of Scottish football. It simply isnt going to happen.

 

The night before in the EEN we had another, nore enlightened tourism chief be-moaning how occupancy was down 1% in Edinburgh in August 2008 and how its down 5.3 % on the year and about the same for the remainder of the year.

 

This is not a trend that is going to reverse itself any time soon in this economic climate. Most major hotels are budgeting for 7% less occupancy next year as compared to this year. Thats a drop in forecast occupancy of over 10% in two short years

 

There is absolutely NO NEED for 4000 extra hotel beds, now or in five years time or in ten years time as they wont be filled until Edinburgh gets it act together as an international destination instead of falling behind its other major competitors, as it has been doing for the last 5 years. We've got a castle, some pretty buildings, a 3 week festival and a tattoo and precious little else, especially anything that would attract major conferences or events.

 

The Edinburgh tourism chiefs have got their heads so far buried in the sand that they failed to support Murrayfield as a non sporting event venue when the feckin neighbours were objecting to the noise, a result of which is that Murrayfield is not currently permitted to hold music events. Edinburgh is also desperate for a world class large conference venue and what did they do. They made provision for an extra 425 capacity in the EICC and thought it would solve everything. Feckin numpties !!!

 

 

Its things like that, from the same people who are charged with growing inbound tourism into Edinburgh and Scotland, that make you realise it isnt going to happen.

 

Its absolute garbage this 50% growth and need for 4000 extra beds Its not needed and It isnt going to happen and they know it isnt going to happen.

 

And another report this week showed that Edinburgh Airport has significantly increased it's passenger turnover to become Scotlands busiest airport and plans are well underway for an expansion to the Airport/Runways.

 

Expansion = likely that more people coming to Edinburgh on business/holiday thus it would be fair to say more 'quality' accommodation is required.

 

You might think it's garbage but tbf I will take soundings from industry 'experts'.

[Jammy T]

And another report this week showed that Edinburgh Airport has significantly increased it's passenger turnover to become Scotlands busiest airport and plans are well underway for an expansion to the Airport/Runways.

 

Expansion = likely that more people coming to Edinburgh on business/holiday thus it would be fair to say more 'quality' accommodation is required.

 

You might think it's garbage but tbf I will take soundings from industry 'experts'.

 

To be fair though I think it is a 15 to 20 year development plan for the airport. I dont think we'll have another runway open within the next decade

[JamboAl]

But is it bad ?

 

Well it wouldn't do if you're a football referee!

Oh, hang on........

[redm]

By default, people that back Vlad and his aspirations.....

 

Seriously, the reality is that DH is being attacked for being wrong some of the time re his opinions and criticisms by someone that is very much pro-Romanov, or at least anti anti-Vlads.

 

The reality is though there is very little for the more pro-Romanov people to point to back them being right.

 

Its all still to pan out.

 

I guess it was easier to ridicule Gallileo than it was to back him....

 

By default? In other words, nobody said it...it's just the wee voices in your head? Gotcha.

 

As for the rest of it, this works both ways though. There's little to back up either viewpoint at the moment so I'm not absolutely sure who the Galileo is in this scenario. You're damned if you do...you're damned if you don't. We spend too much time on supposition in here and I'm as guilty of that as anyone else, but sometimes you just wonder if some aren't just going a little over the top with the conspiracy theories....

 

And anyway, I wouldn't worry too much for DH....he'll be fine I'm sure, he's fae Drylaw you know.

[Seymour M Hersh]

To be fair though I think it is a 15 to 20 year development plan for the airport. I dont think we'll have another runway open within the next decade

 

TBF is the 50% tourist increase the SNP and Visit Scotland not over the next 10 years? Or is by 2010?

[Jammy T]

By default? In other words, nobody said it...it's just the wee voices in your head? Gotcha.

 

 

The seriousness of my point clarified by the first word of the following sentence....

 

Anyway, what fun would the board be if we all agreed?

[Jammy T]

TBF is the 50% tourist increase the SNP and Visit Scotland not over the next 10 years? Or is by 2010?

 

Dunno

 

I think it is an aspiration more than a factually established inevitability though - which is kind of what OAG said

[redm]

The seriousness of my point clarified by the first word of the following sentence....

 

Anyway, what fun would the board be if we all agreed?

 

Eggsactly.

 

Thank god we have lots to discuss and don't need to manufacture and conjure up outlandish ideas and conspiracy theories....mostly featuring villainous Lithuanians. Hehe.

[leginten]

I was hinting that you hit the nail on the head re who I work for.

 

Bank/AssuranceCo/Tidy Bird in mourning.

 

If I buy you pints will you make up the shortfall on my endowment policy?

 

[Jammy T]

Eggsactly.

 

Thank god we have lots to discuss and don't need to manufacture and conjure up outlandish ideas and conspiracy theories....mostly featuring villainous Lithuanians. Hehe.

 

I maintain that if we ever get back to being a normal club we will not believe the schecht that we fell out about (we will all have made up by then you see)

 

The ebb and flow on here should be taken more lightheartedly!

[asomerville]

I missed the start of this thread because of a few days hols. But as someone who with his job goes to most of the high level hotels in Edinburgh, I can assure you their is a need for more High Level hotels in the Lothians. This is the type aimed at business people from all over the world. Also as a conference venue Edinburgh is let down because of a shortage of Hotel space, this applies to Glasgow as well.

[TynecastleShedZ]

And another report this week showed that Edinburgh Airport has significantly increased it's passenger turnover to become Scotlands busiest airport and plans are well underway for an expansion to the Airport/Runways.

 

Expansion = likely that more people coming to Edinburgh on business/holiday thus it would be fair to say more 'quality' accommodation is required.

 

You might think it's garbage but tbf I will take soundings from industry 'experts'.

 

So what capacity / professional job do you have to be commenting on this?

 

I know what is going on having worked for ELTB, Visitscotland and currently another tourist related company in Edinburgh.

 

The 4000 extra beds is for conferences which Edinburgh loses out on due to capacity in the city centre near the EICC

[Spellczech]

IIRC he didn't make ?1million from Velicka it was more like ?600,000 rising to ?1million based on appearences.

 

He obviously didn't make many appeatences for Viking before moving to the weej.

 

Would Hearts not have a % sell on fee to cover such an eventuality as a viking moving Velicka on quickly?

 

We had around 11 players from Lithuania at one point - I'm not sure they were 'gap filling'.

Why? More than half stayed for a season or less...

VR had already made at clear when he attempted takeovers at several other Scottish Clubs that bringing in Lithuanians to showcase was his main aim.

 

Why would this plan suddenly change at Hearts ?

 

Why would this old fact be relevant when Vlad has in the time since taking over Hearts already changed his strategy fundamentally by stopping the big wages?

 

There has been money cut from several areas I hear - one being Travel and Hotel bills.

Another change in approach which further weakens your argument about Vlad looking at other clubs 4-5 yrs ago...

 

 

It looks a good idea in Black & White but do you not think this is what every club outwith the OF is doing ?

Of course they are - the relevant point is how successful they and we are...

 

They know they can't compete financially so they look to the youth and bargin basement signings.

 

This isn't a new concept.

Correct it isn't.,,so what is your argument here?

 

To compete we need to sign players closer to the standard of the OF and throw in a few players who've finished Top of the Class from the Academy.

Not a fiscally sound policy ,,,

Twice in the last 10 years we've done that and twice we've managed to give them a run for their money.

...since as you note yourself we've done it twice and it is short-term gain for long=-term pain.

 

VR will have to spend money on buying players or paying big salaries to take on the OF if not......in due course, following organic growth so that such largesse can be recouped and even exploited.

 

we will continue to fight for 3rd along with Aberdeen, Dundee Utd, Hibs etc etc.

see red

[portobellojambo1]

So what capacity / professional job do you have to be commenting on this?

 

I know what is going on having worked for ELTB, Visitscotland and currently another tourist related company in Edinburgh.

 

The 4000 extra beds is for conferences which Edinburgh loses out on due to capacity in the city centre near the EICC

 

Figures like this confuse me. I tend to think my mind works logically. I.e., I work on the assumption that if Edinburgh is losing out on conferences at the moment because it has 4.000 too few hotel beds, then someone somewhere is planning to hold conferences which are going to attract well in excess of 4,000 people (logic part again, if we cannot hold them at the moment based on bed availability but can if we produce another 4,000 hotel beds). Where are these conferences with well in excess of 4,000 going to be held, the only places I can think of in Edinburgh that hold those sort of numbers comfortably are Tynecastle, Murrayfield and Easter Road, and none of these venues are what I would class as conference locations.

 

If they are talking about around 4,500 people attending conferences spread over a period of one year, and your average conference lasts one week, even assuming 1 is held every week even my basic arithmetic works that out that all we need is around an extra 87 beds (once one set of conference attenders fecks off back where they came from you change the bed sheets and stick the next set of suits in the same beds for the next week and so on).

 

In reality I tend to agree with OaG, I actually suspect that for tourists Edinburgh is probably getting a bit stale, there hasn't been an awful lot new in recent years to attract visitors to the city, and I genuinely don't think zillions of Americans and Japanese toursits will come flocking here to have a looksee at our next tourist attraction, the fecking tram system (waste of fecking money that it is). I got the impression that even during the Festival this year Edinburgh didn't seem as busy as usual, don't suppose the fact it p i s s ed with rain non stop helped but that sort of weather goes with the territory.

 

Sorry for rambling on, just felt like it.

[Only a Game]

I missed the start of this thread because of a few days hols. But as someone who with his job goes to most of the high level hotels in Edinburgh, I can assure you their is a need for more High Level hotels in the Lothians. This is the type aimed at business people from all over the world. Also as a conference venue Edinburgh is let down because of a shortage of Hotel space, this applies to Glasgow as well.

 

 

As a conference "destination" Edinburgh is first and foremost let down back a lack of high capacity conference venues.

 

Build one of those and improve the infrastructure that goes with it, and there might well be a need for 4000 extra beds. Not by 2015 though and certainly not if you dont build one at all.

[Only a Game]

The 4000 extra beds is for conferences which Edinburgh loses out on due to capacity in the city centre near the EICC

 

As I said above, Edinburgh loses out on big conferences because we cant accomodate the delegates in a conference centre big enough, nothing at all to do with the beds available. The biggest we can accomodate delegate wise is the EICC which can squeeze in 1700 at a push.

 

If you build one that can accomodate between 3500 and 5000 you might well be at the stage where your need extra hotel rooms DURING a large conference.

You'll be lucky to get a big one like that more than twice a year though.

[Only a Game]

I missed the start of this thread because of a few days hols. But as someone who with his job goes to most of the high level hotels in Edinburgh, I can assure you their is a need for more High Level hotels in the Lothians. This is the type aimed at business people from all over the world. Also as a conference venue Edinburgh is let down because of a shortage of Hotel space, this applies to Glasgow as well.

 

In my opinion you are wrong about Edinburgh but right about Glasgow.

 

Glasgow has excellent, in terms of capacity, conference facilities at the SECC, but it doesnt have the bed space to service it.

 

Any time there is a big event in Glasgow, be it sporting, music, conferencing, Edinburgh takes a sharev of the accomodation because Glasgow cant do it.

 

I assume, as an industry insider if thats what you are, that you'll be aware that Edinburgh has dropped from 8th to 27th in the worldwide list of conference destinations and that the reason for this has been universally accepted as the lack of actual conference facilities.

 

Places like Vancouver and Vienna, similar sizes to Edinburgh, are taking Edinburgh business away because their cities have really got their acts together and we havent.

[Only a Game]

Figures like this confuse me. I tend to think my mind works logically. I.e., I work on the assumption that if Edinburgh is losing out on conferences at the moment because it has 4.000 too few hotel beds, then someone somewhere is planning to hold conferences which are going to attract well in excess of 4,000 people (logic part again, if we cannot hold them at the moment based on bed availability but can if we produce another 4,000 hotel beds). Where are these conferences with well in excess of 4,000 going to be held, the only places I can think of in Edinburgh that hold those sort of numbers comfortably are Tynecastle, Murrayfield and Easter Road, and none of these venues are what I would class as conference locations.

 

If they are talking about around 4,500 people attending conferences spread over a period of one year, and your average conference lasts one week, even assuming 1 is held every week even my basic arithmetic works that out that all we need is around an extra 87 beds (once one set of conference attenders fecks off back where they came from you change the bed sheets and stick the next set of suits in the same beds for the next week and so on).

 

In reality I tend to agree with OaG, I actually suspect that for tourists Edinburgh is probably getting a bit stale, there hasn't been an awful lot new in recent years to attract visitors to the city, and I genuinely don't think zillions of Americans and Japanese toursits will come flocking here to have a looksee at our next tourist attraction, the fecking tram system (waste of fecking money that it is). I got the impression that even during the Festival this year Edinburgh didn't seem as busy as usual, don't suppose the fact it p i s s ed with rain non stop helped but that sort of weather goes with the territory.

 

Sorry for rambling on, just felt like it.

 

Your not rambling, youre fairly close to the mark.

 

Edinburgh currently attracts, in the course of a year around 12 -15 fairly big conferences (more than 500 delegates) A couple of these might be around the 1500 delegate mark. Most of the bigger ones are concentrated into a small window between now and the end of November.

 

We cant attract a conference bigger than that because we dont have a conference centre big enough to put them in. It really is THAT simple

 

At the risk of repeating myself, if we dont get a conference centre, we dont need the extra hotels.

[Only a Game]

And another report this week showed that Edinburgh Airport has significantly increased it's passenger turnover to become Scotlands busiest airport and plans are well underway for an expansion to the Airport/Runways.

 

Expansion = likely that more people coming to Edinburgh on business/holiday thus it would be fair to say more 'quality' accommodation is required.

 

You might think it's garbage but tbf I will take soundings from industry 'experts'.

 

Edinburgh Hotel occupancy DOWN 5.3 % this year. Anticpating being down 7% or more next year. As an industry expert I rest my case.

 

Edinburgh airport's passenger turnover has been increasing gradually over the last ten years, correct, but the vast majority of the increase is in outbound and returning holiday flights. i.e people LEAVING Edinburgh, not COMING to Edinburgh.

[CJGJ]

What is important is not the building of the hotel but how successful it will be -- it will be run by one of the chain groups no doubt and leased/rented from the developers/owners.

As it will not be ready for at least 3 years then it is not market conditions today that are as important as those forecast in the future.

You could have 40,000 over capacity but some hotels will still be a success and some a failure -- it is the running and quality of the hotel that will be important -- what will be the target market ?

 

Of course the rest of the development needs to be a success too -- selling/renting the apartments and the leisure centre need to be part of the equation.

It is only their trading success that gives us any hope of trading our way out of debt.