BY ELECTION!

[Toggie88]

The sitting MP John MacDougall has passed following a lengthy illness.

 

Could possibly be a General Election because if Labour lose another seat in Scotland....

[upthehill]

you sound pretty excited about somebody who has sadly died. I didn't agree with his politics, but a death is never good.

 

I hope Labour get another kicking up there.

[Toggie88]

Gutted tbh - was looking forward to a couple of weeks of calm before the end of recess.

[Boris]

But what if Labour holds it?

 

I reckon they should hold the by-election, see how the Nats do, then decide on when to have the General election.

[Coco]

But what if Labour holds it?

 

I reckon they should hold the by-election, see how the Nats do, then decide on when to have the General election.

 

Who is going to stand against Brown in the General Election?

 

Will be some achievement for the SNP when they topple a sitting Prime Minister (if he lasts that long).

 

Is Salmond going to stand against Brown? Sean Connery?

[upthehill]

But what if Labour holds it?

 

I reckon they should hold the by-election, see how the Nats do, then decide on when to have the General election.

 

Then they will hold it with a greatly reduced majority, still damaging their brand. If I had to put money on it I predict they will hold it at the moment, but with a majority around a thousand, over the SNP. The Conservatives will overtake the Lib Dems into 3rd place.

 

Brown will claim a win shows he is credible and stumble on for a while longer.

 

But I've been wrong before! That's pretty much what I predicted for Glasgow East a few weeks ago!

[Toggie88]

Then they will hold it with a greatly reduced majority, still damaging their brand. If I had to put money on it I predict they will hold it at the moment, but with a majority around a thousand, over the SNP. The Conservatives will overtake the Lib Dems into 3rd place.

 

Brown will claim a win shows he is credible and stumble on for a while longer.

 

But I've been wrong before! That's pretty much what I predicted for Glasgow East a few weeks ago!

 

It's smaller majority than Glasgow East and the SNP hold the Scottish Parliament seat. The latest opinion poll shows the SNP well ahead.

 

Going to be interesting.

[The Mighty Thor]

Then they will hold it with a greatly reduced majority, still damaging their brand. If I had to put money on it I predict they will hold it at the moment, but with a majority around a thousand, over the SNP. The Conservatives will overtake the Lib Dems into 3rd place.

 

Brown will claim a win shows he is credible and stumble on for a while longer.

 

But I've been wrong before! That's pretty much what I predicted for Glasgow East a few weeks ago!

 

Firstly the passing of the sitting MP after a long illness is pretty sad.

 

That said this one will be absolutely fascinating.

 

Labour are already in the mire up to their necks and the only news heading their way right now is of the bad variety.

 

I reckon they will launch a very parochial 'must win' campaign during which they will focus on the SNP's shortcomings rather than addressing the wider points that matter to the average punter. They will wheel out a succession of their 'big guns' and will really go for the jugular.

 

The SNP will probably be licking their lips at the opportunity to give Brown a bloody nose right on his doorstep and the opportunity to sink him will drive wee Eck and the gang on. The SNP's tactics will no doubt be to drive the wider issues, the economy and the comlete mis-management thereof. Easy targets and stuff that will strike a cord with everyone that's shelling out more cash every month.

 

I reckon if the SNP can whistle up a decent candidate they will scrape the seat and that will set up a civil war in the Labour ranks.

 

I wonder if smarmy Dave and the Tories will get into this one or just keep their powder dry and let the SNP bring down the govt?

 

Looking forward to it.

[Coco]

Lib Dems have West Fife and North East Fife. Labour about to lose Glenrothes. That leaves Brown as the only Labour MP in Fife.

 

And is he going to fall in the general election? Very exciting.

[Bordeaux 03]

I loved the excitement of the Glasgow East byelection (sad i know) but now there will be one in my home town I can't wait.

 

Do you reckon Brown will make an appearance for this one? With his public image at the moment i think he would rather not but he kind of going to have to in a way since it's on his own doorstep.

[Coco]

I loved the excitement of the Glasgow East byelection (sad i know) but now there will be one in my home town I can't wait.

 

Do you reckon Brown will make an appearance for this one? With his public image at the moment i think he would rather not but he kind of going to have to in a way since it's on his own doorstep.

 

They lied about a convention that Prime Ministers do not attend by-elections to justify the absence of Brown and OhMyDarling from Glasgow East (at the very least this was a smear on Tony Blair who did attend byelections). But can you imagine the response to Brown on the doorsteps if he did attend?

 

In addition - when is the Jack McConnell Scottish Parliament by-election going to be announced. Not too long now before he schlepps off to Malawi.

[Boris]

Then they will hold it with a greatly reduced majority, still damaging their brand. If I had to put money on it I predict they will hold it at the moment, but with a majority around a thousand, over the SNP. The Conservatives will overtake the Lib Dems into 3rd place.

 

Brown will claim a win shows he is credible and stumble on for a while longer.

 

But I've been wrong before! That's pretty much what I predicted for Glasgow East a few weeks ago!

 

Even with a reduced majority a hold in a by-election for Labour would be a victory (if that makes sense! ) Despite wining with 51% of the vote at the last Gen Election.

 

Lib Dems may do better than you think - they did win the one of the Dunfermline seats and i can't see there being too many more Tories voting in that seat. The Tory vote was 0.7% down at the last General Election which suggests a sort of levelling of support in that constituency.

[upthehill]

Who is going to stand against Brown in the General Election?

 

Will be some achievement for the SNP when they topple a sitting Prime Minister (if he lasts that long).

 

Is Salmond going to stand against Brown? Sean Connery?

 

The Snats were putting it round as a rumour that Salmond would stand against him but i don't think there is any substance in it.

[upthehill]

Even with a reduced majority a hold in a by-election for Labour would be a victory (if that makes sense! ) Despite wining with 51% of the vote at the last Gen Election.

 

Lib Dems may do better than you think - they did win the one of the Dunfermline seats and i can't see there being too many more Tories voting in that seat. The Tory vote was 0.7% down at the last General Election which suggests a sort of levelling of support in that constituency.

 

The Lib Dems won in Dunfermline from clear 2nd place. Their vote is promiscuous and will back SNP, who are clear 2nd place. A lot of Labour voters will swap the SNP. Conservative vote will hold steady, that'll make it pan out Lab SNP Cons Lib

[Boris]

Their vote is promiscuous

 

LOL

 

 

 

The Tories may get third i suppose, but it is pretty cold comfort coming third with just over 2000 votes...

[upthehill]

LOL

 

 

 

The Tories may get third i suppose, but it is pretty cold comfort coming third with just over 2000 votes...

 

lol

[jamboinglasgow]

Even with a reduced majority a hold in a by-election for Labour would be a victory (if that makes sense! ) Despite wining with 51% of the vote at the last Gen Election.

 

Lib Dems may do better than you think - they did win the one of the Dunfermline seats and i can't see there being too many more Tories voting in that seat. The Tory vote was 0.7% down at the last General Election which suggests a sort of levelling of support in that constituency.

 

I was thinking the lib dems due to already holding two seats in fife, but then realised that one is north-east i.e. St Andrews (a very lib dem town due partially to the students) and Dunfermline was about kicking the government in the teeth and they were second before.

 

I feel if played right this could be a victory to the SNP if they play this right. Brown needs to visit to protect the seat otherwise he will be off before the conference season.

[upthehill]

If you were Labours strategist for this by election what would you be doing to hold it?

[Toggie88]

If you were Labours strategist for this by election what would you be doing to hold it?

 

I'd hold off until after the conference - they will receive a post-conference boost (as all parties do) as long as it doesn't turn out to be a leadership fight. Saying that, we have a few comments stored away from Glasgow East about leavig the voters without representation.

 

I'm personally hoping that they just go for it and call a general election.

 

I really don't know how they will play it though - they are in a shambles and with the Scottish Leadership contest happening...who know's. It could be October/November time.

 

Jack McConnell is desperate to get away but he's been told to hang on as it looks like they could lose the seat.

[Boris]

If you were Labours strategist for this by election what would you be doing to hold it?

 

It's a toughy.

 

If it was a simple by-election they could be in trouble, but if part of a general election then that would stabalise the Labour vote, imho.

 

People are more likely to vote as a protest in a by-election as opposed to a General Election.

[Pants Shaton]

The one thing we can all be sure of, regardless of the by-election result, is that not more than 30% of Scots want independence. All the protest votes in the world won't result in independence so bring on the referendum and kill this ridiculous conceit stone dead for another generation.

[Pants Shaton]

If you were Labours strategist for this by election what would you be doing to hold it?

 

I'd post this image all over the constituency:

 

 

With the slogan: 'We'll take things from here...'

[upthehill]

I'd post this image all over the constituency:

 

 

With the slogan: 'We'll take things from here...'

 

they tried that in London... and lost! They tried it in Glasgow East... and lost! They really need to try harder, as no matter how you view Boris & Dave, the public view Gordon & Alastair as worse.

[Pants Shaton]

they tried that in London... and lost! They tried it in Glasgow East... and lost! They really need to try harder, as no matter how you view Boris & Dave, the public view Gordon & Alastair as worse.

 

It was tongue-in-cheek; I found their previous attempts to exploit class, crass and irrelevant. I still think that picture says more than a million words.

[upthehill]

It was tongue-in-cheek; I found their previous attempts to exploit class, crass and irrelevant. I still think that picture says more than a million words.

 

as did the electorate! It is a good picture, I just put it as a screensaver on my work computers, it provoked a reaction that's for sure!

[jamboinglasgow]

It was tongue-in-cheek; I found their previous attempts to exploit class, crass and irrelevant. I still think that picture says more than a million words.

 

what is that picture supposed to say? to me it says this is the mayor of london and the future prime minister.

[Bordeaux 03]

With Boris you have a character and Cameron energetic enthusiasm, sadly Labour lack both of these qualities at the moment.

[Pants Shaton]

what is that picture supposed to say? to me it says this is the mayor of london and the future prime minister.

 

To me it says 'better the devil you know', among many other things.

[Boris]

To me it says 'better the devil you know', among many other things.

 

What's interesting in this context is that the Toies have no hope of winning this by-election, yet they want to bask in some sort of reflective glory.

 

I fancy if/when Cameron becomes PM, he will not have it as easy as Blair did.

[Patrick Bateman]

what is that picture supposed to say? to me it says this is the mayor of london and the future prime minister.

 

 

To me it says out of touch Etonian toffs, one known for cheap publicity stunts, and for his "hilarious" calamities and insensitivity. Cameron is an odious, smarmy prat who has no record to speak of. The thought of these "people" in power stokes my desire for independence even more.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

The only hope Labour have in that dump of a town is to recall Henry McLeish from exile. He still has a lot of popular support in roundabout central.

[Toggie88]

The only hope Labour have in that dump of a town is to recall Henry McLeish from exile. He still has a lot of popular support in roundabout central.

 

He's one of us now though;)

[upthehill]

What's interesting in this context is that the Toies have no hope of winning this by-election, yet they want to bask in some sort of reflective glory.

 

I fancy if/when Cameron becomes PM, he will not have it as easy as Blair did.

 

Of course he won't, we left Blair a cracking economic legacy, when we take over in 12-18 months we'll be given an economic nightmare to deal with. Labour never fail to leave the country in a worse state than they inherited it in.

[Boris]

Of course he won't, we left Blair a cracking economic legacy, when we take over in 12-18 months we'll be given an economic nightmare to deal with. Labour never fail to leave the country in a worse state than they inherited it in.

 

Hahaha

 

Brilliant answer!

 

if you weren't a Tory I'd even consider voting for you! Seriously!

[cosanostra]

Was listening to the radio last night and one topic that was being discussed was Thatcher.

 

Someone raised the point that Thatcher is absolutely hated by some, deathwishes, i'll dance on her grave, hope she burns in hell etc

 

She cut back on Union Power, reduced Britain's reliance on traditional industries, put a lot of people out of work, harmed communities dependant on those industries and introduced the poll tax.

 

Tony Blair on the other hand has gotten involved in an invasion of another country, based on a pack of lies and against the will of the people of his country and the UN. This war has seen the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and how many British servicemen and women? The damage casued to Britain's reputuation on the international stage caused by Blair's government is immeasureable.

 

On the grand scheme of things, who deserves the venom and vitriol more?

 

Thatcher seems to attract some of the most venomous comments i've seen on JKB (even on this thread the mods had to intervene) but Tony Blair does not.

 

Seems a bit odd to me. I'll admit I am too young to remember much of Thatcher's time but even still, I can't figure this one out.

[Toggie88]

Was listening to the radio last night and one topic that was being discussed was Thatcher.

 

Someone raised the point that Thatcher is absolutely hated by some, deathwishes, i'll dance on her grave, hope she burns in hell etc

 

She cut back on Union Power, reduced Britain's reliance on traditional industries, put a lot of people out of work, harmed communities dependant on those industries and introduced the poll tax.

 

Tony Blair on the other hand has gotten involved in an invasion of another country, based on a pack of lies and against the will of the people of his country and the UN. This war has seen the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and how many British servicemen and women? The damage casued to Britain's reputuation on the international stage caused by Blair's government is immeasureable.

 

On the grand scheme of things, who deserves the venom and vitriol more?

 

Thatcher seems to attract some of the most venomous comments i've seen on JKB (even on this thread the mods had to intervene) but Tony Blair does not.

 

Seems a bit odd to me. I'll admit I am too young to remember much of Thatcher's time but even still, I can't figure this one out.

 

A lot of the hatred of Thatcher stems from the pitt closures and poll tax, that hit almost everyone in Scotland very hard.

 

She also manufactured a war and privitised a lot of industries.

 

Blair made a lot of mistakes, a LOT of mistakes. He was however a breath of fresh air after 18 years of Torie rule and did introduce some popular policies, the minimum wage and of course devolution.

 

I'm sure JKB has more experienced users on the subject as I only experienced a couple years of Thatcher rule and was only 8 when Labour swept to power.

[Boris]

Was listening to the radio last night and one topic that was being discussed was Thatcher.

 

Someone raised the point that Thatcher is absolutely hated by some, deathwishes, i'll dance on her grave, hope she burns in hell etc

 

She cut back on Union Power, reduced Britain's reliance on traditional industries, put a lot of people out of work, harmed communities dependant on those industries and introduced the poll tax.

 

Tony Blair on the other hand has gotten involved in an invasion of another country, based on a pack of lies and against the will of the people of his country and the UN. This war has seen the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and how many British servicemen and women? The damage casued to Britain's reputuation on the international stage caused by Blair's government is immeasureable.

 

On the grand scheme of things, who deserves the venom and vitriol more?

 

Thatcher seems to attract some of the most venomous comments i've seen on JKB (even on this thread the mods had to intervene) but Tony Blair does not.

 

Seems a bit odd to me. I'll admit I am too young to remember much of Thatcher's time but even still, I can't figure this one out.

 

I think it is simply that to many Thatcher is perceived to have poo'd on her own doorstep. Blair did his mess on other peoples.

 

Bottom line is that regardless of the damage caused abroad to the UK's rep, to many voters this is almost irrelevant when domestic issues bite deeper into peoples lives.

[cosanostra]

I think it is simply that to many Thatcher is perceived to have poo'd on her own doorstep. Blair did his mess on other peoples.

 

Bottom line is that regardless of the damage caused abroad to the UK's rep, to many voters this is almost irrelevant when domestic issues bite deeper into peoples lives.

 

This was close to my own guess.

 

Blair has been responsible for countless death and destruction but at least he was nice enough to wreak havoc in far off lands.

[A Boy Named Crow]

They lied about a convention that Prime Ministers do not attend by-elections to justify the absence of Brown and OhMyDarling from Glasgow East (at the very least this was a smear on Tony Blair who did attend byelections). But can you imagine the response to Brown on the doorsteps if he did attend?

 

In addition - when is the Jack McConnell Scottish Parliament by-election going to be announced. Not too long now before he schlepps off to Malawi.

 

It is convention at Westminster that is a siting MP dies his cinstituency duties will be taken on by the neighbouring MP - in this case Maggie Broon. He has no place to hide on this one!

I heard a rumour today that Labour were considering a double header with Wee Joke standing down at the same time. I don't see it myself - Labour didn't have the resources to hold Glasgow East - there is no way they could fight two by-elections at the same time.

It is a toughie for the SNP though - a prime oportunity, but it has to be handled with tact - you probably won't hear anything until long after the funeral. Radio 4 were suggesting a November election date.

[Toggie88]

It is convention at Westminster that is a siting MP dies his cinstituency duties will be taken on by the neighbouring MP - in this case Maggie Broon. He has no place to hide on this one!

I heard a rumour today that Labour were considering a double header with Wee Joke standing down at the same time. I don't see it myself - Labour didn't have the resources to hold Glasgow East - there is no way they could fight two by-elections at the same time.

It is a toughie for the SNP though - a prime oportunity, but it has to be handled with tact - you probably won't hear anything until long after the funeral. Radio 4 were suggesting a November election date.

 

They may well go for the two by elections at the same time.

 

The SNP have the momentum and we also have the bigger activist base at the moment. Labour had to bus people up from down South to leaflet and canvass. I never spoke to one Scottish Labour activist on the day of the election - the majority were all Labour students from down south.

 

The seats are both their for the SNP to take. We've proven that we can focus our resources and all pull together. We won Glasgow East because we got out on the streets and switched people from Labour to the SNP. If Labour call both the by elections at the same time they are splitting our resources also.

 

Doing this is also a gamble though. If Labour lost two safe seats in Scotland on the same night then it would definately be game, set and match. Brown would be out the door by sun up.

[Bzzzz]

Two by elections... the mouth is watering at the thought of it!

 

I'd love it, ****ing LOVE IT if we took them!!!

[Therapist]

Going to be interesting.

 

Only for those that are tedious bores.

[A Boy Named Crow]

They may well go for the two by elections at the same time.

 

The SNP have the momentum and we also have the bigger activist base at the moment. Labour had to bus people up from down South to leaflet and canvass. I never spoke to one Scottish Labour activist on the day of the election - the majority were all Labour students from down south.

 

The seats are both their for the SNP to take. We've proven that we can focus our resources and all pull together. We won Glasgow East because we got out on the streets and switched people from Labour to the SNP. If Labour call both the by elections at the same time they are splitting our resources also.

 

Doing this is also a gamble though. If Labour lost two safe seats in Scotland on the same night then it would definately be game, set and match. Brown would be out the door by sun up.

The point is that labour couldn't drum up enough passion amongst their own activists to win Glasgow East, they are also skint and support for them is slipping away like a fart through a sieve. The SNP have been gearing up for this election for ages and their stock is rising all the time. They certainly have the momentum right now. I don't think even Labour would be stupid enough to try and beat them on two fronts at the same time...then again...

[Toggie88]

The point is that labour couldn't drum up enough passion amongst their own activists to win Glasgow East, they are also skint and support for them is slipping away like a fart through a sieve. The SNP have been gearing up for this election for ages and their stock is rising all the time. They certainly have the momentum right now. I don't think even Labour would be stupid enough to try and beat them on two fronts at the same time...then again...

 

It's not really a case of "can Labour win" it's a case of how much will Labour lose.

 

Every party is pretty skint just now. It really depends on how much activists and donor's are preparerd to give.

[jamboinglasgow]

To me it says out of touch Etonian toffs, one known for cheap publicity stunts, and for his "hilarious" calamities and insensitivity. Cameron is an odious, smarmy prat who has no record to speak of. The thought of these "people" in power stokes my desire for independence even more.

 

bah, guess your just a St Andrews liberal then.

[ecjambo]

RIP MacDougall.

 

I hope Labour regain the seat. If they lose it will put so much pressure on the party and it will only be good news for that **** Cameron.