UK General Election, July 4th - How will you vote?

[Lone Striker]

4 minutes ago, leginten said:

You’re right on both counts - not rocket science, and a lot of people won’t bother. But if you apply the Labour politician’s hypothetical 30% to a hypothetical August election, you could be talking about a number way in excess of 10m people south of the border requiring postal votes. It wouldn’t be allowed to happen, and no politician would dream of bringing about such an unacceptable scenario. I’m just not sure why it’s deemed acceptable by so many people here.

Not sure I follow what you're saying.  Whats the relevance of a hypothetical August election ?  

 

I don't doubt that the 4th July date has been chosen as a result of Tory strategists  "black arts" to give them the best (or least worst) chance of winning  outright or being part of a hung parliament.  How much focus they put on Scottish voters potentially being away due to school holidays is debateable, since the majority of constituencies are in England - plus,  the SNP are likely to win at least a third of Scottish constituencies, thereby denying Labour a considerable Scottish contribution to their overall tally.   Strange to say it, but the Tory party  wouldn't be too bothered  to see their candidates in Scottish seats lose if the  SNP wins.

 

 A good number of seat wins for  the SNP in Scotland and the Lib/Dems in England  could realistically deprive Labour of a working majority in Westminster, especially if Labour score a couple of own goals during the  campaign to make potential voters think twice.

 

[Taffin]

Won't be voting. I've lost faith in the social contract of the UK and won't be validating my role in it by voting.

[leginten]

7 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

 

Have you not got anything better to do than keeping digging that hole for yourself?

 

Your argument is based on a fundamentally flawed premise that everyone with kids will go away on holiday and choose to do so at the same time.

As usual, the inability to post anything of substance.

 

The “up to 30%” figure was from Ian Smart of Labour, quoted in the Record. Not mine at all, and nor have I supposed anything about who will go away when. Even if 10% of people were away at the time, that would still be a good reason not to have the election at that time, quite apart from the issue (that no-one has yet responded to) of why an election is being called during school holidays here when one would never be called during school summer holidays south of the border.

[SM Sheffield]

In my seat in Sheffield there are only two potential winners and both parties have won recently. It is a marginal and the Lib Dems are the only party and the most likely option to keep out Labour here. Lib Dem it is

[il Duce McTarkin]

Applied for my postal vote as soon as the date was announced. 

Can't wait to vote the Tories out.

[leginten]

8 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

Not sure I follow what you're saying.  Whats the relevance of a hypothetical August election ?  

 

I don't doubt that the 4th July date has been chosen as a result of Tory strategists  "black arts" to give them the best (or least worst) chance of winning  outright or being part of a hung parliament.  How much focus they put on Scottish voters potentially being away due to school holidays is debateable, since the majority of constituencies are in England - plus,  the SNP are likely to win at least a third of Scottish constituencies, thereby denying Labour a considerable Scottish contribution to their overall tally.   Strange to say it, but the Tory party  wouldn't be too bothered  to see their candidates in Scottish seats lose if the  SNP wins.

 

 A good number of seat wins for  the SNP in Scotland and the Lib/Dems in England  could realistically deprive Labour of a working majority in Westminster, especially if Labour score a couple of own goals during the  campaign to make potential voters think twice.

 

The hypothetical August election point was simply to illustrate that this wouldn’t be happening in summer holidays south of the border. 
 

Agree with your first paragraph, but I think it’s going to take an awful lot going wrong to prevent a very sizeable majority for Labour. A Kinnock walking too close to the incoming tide scenario, or rank complacency. No doubt the tabloids will have their say.

[Dazo]

So about 60-70% of people in Scotland can normally be arsed to vote. Out of those people what percentage do we think are on holiday on the 4th are unable to use the postal vote system ? 
 

Aye after all that’s gone on it deffo sounds like something to lose your shit about. 

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, hughesie27 said:

He has no interest in actually getting into a position of making political change. He can stay in the lime light for longer if he grandstands from the fringes being a mouthpiece.

He’s an expert in making the bullets.

[Japan Jambo]

1 hour ago, leginten said:

Good post, and it sums up the way I feel very accurately. The only part I disagree with is highlighted. With his armies of advisers, communication channels to the SG etc, it’s inconceivable to me that he didn’t know what he was doing. But then the impression I’ve formed about him since he took office is that he has a very shallow knowledge about the UK and doesn’t really give a toss about the differences between its constituent parts.

 

I’d be interested to know if there’s a compelling reason why it couldn’t have been held on June 27th. Obviously parliament at Westminster will have been dissolved long before then.

 

There is a specific timetable a general election would have to follow, which starts with the dissolution of Parliament and ends with polling day 25 days later - not counting bank holidays and weekends. That means there will be around five weeks between the day Parliament is dissolved and the date the country heads to the polls.

Mr Sunak has said the vote will take place in the second half of the year, which could be any time after the start of July. So if an announcement came today it could be for as early as July 4. The convention in the UK is for elections to take place on a Thursday.

 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-much-notice-needed-general-29219954

[frankblack]

34 minutes ago, Dazo said:

So about 60-70% of people in Scotland can normally be arsed to vote. Out of those people what percentage do we think are on holiday on the 4th are unable to use the postal vote system ? 
 

Aye after all that’s gone on it deffo sounds like something to lose your shit about. 

 

Precisely.

 

This has nothing to do with Scottish or English school holidays.  Its all about the Tories trying to surprise the other parties and somehow avoid an all out drubbing that they would have got later in the year.

 

Its all down to strategists planning for damage limitation to the Tory vote.

[That thing you do]

3 hours ago, BlueRiver said:

 

You gonna be protesting against the election RH? Or you going to be voting like a good wee boy too? 😂

 

It's a peculiarly nationalist Scot trait to see grievance and disrespect everywhere but do nothing substantive about it apart from whinge and vote SNP anyway. 

It is disrespectful to hold it when a good chunk of the population are away on holiday for one reason. There is 0% chance theyd do it when English Schools are off.

 

Its a daft time for an election. Sunak knows that though.

[ehcaley]

52 minutes ago, SM Sheffield said:

In my seat in Sheffield there are only two potential winners and both parties have won recently. It is a marginal and the Lib Dems are the only party and the most likely option to keep out Labour here. Lib Dem it is

Bring back Nick Clegg🤡

[TallPaul]

48 minutes ago, il Duce McTarkin said:

Applied for my postal vote as soon as the date was announced. 

Can't wait to vote the Tories out.

Snap but replace Tories with Nationalists

[il Duce McTarkin]

14 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

Snap but replace Tories with Nationalists

 

I'll be keeping them out, too.

[luckydug]

My constituency has been renamed Lothian East due to constituency changes. Don't know how much difference it makes but apparently Labour are 92%  likely to win.

SNP captured the old seat last time out but look done now.

Probably still get my vote unless there is an independence leaning alternative.

Not that it's going to matter anyway.

 

[Gundermann]

29 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Precisely.

 

This has nothing to do with Scottish or English school holidays.  Its all about the Tories trying to surprise the other parties and somehow avoid an all out drubbing that they would have got later in the year.

 

Its all down to strategists planning for damage limitation to the Tory vote.

 

It's also Independence Day.

 

[BlueRiver]

32 minutes ago, That thing you do said:

It is disrespectful to hold it when a good chunk of the population are away on holiday for one reason. There is 0% chance theyd do it when English Schools are off.

 

Its a daft time for an election. Sunak knows that though.

 

What's the household threshold of good chunk? 😂 

 

Are there only ever good chunks away when schools are on holiday? 

[luckydug]

2 hours ago, John Findlay said:

One does protest to much.

So at least Thirty percent of Scot's families are well off to take a holiday the first week of July.

I go away for Ten days the fourteenth of July. Is that okay with you hunny?

Are you drunk ?

[BlueRiver]

1 hour ago, leginten said:

As usual, the inability to post anything of substance.

 

The “up to 30%” figure was from Ian Smart of Labour, quoted in the Record. Not mine at all, and nor have I supposed anything about who will go away when. Even if 10% of people were away at the time, that would still be a good reason not to have the election at that time, quite apart from the issue (that no-one has yet responded to) of why an election is being called during school holidays here when one would never be called during school summer holidays south of the border.

 

No one can answer your bottom point as none of us have a crystal ball. 

 

No election had been called in July either beyond the extenuating circumstances of WW2 till one was. 

 

[Dazo]

2 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

What's the household threshold of good chunk? 😂 

 

Are there only ever good chunks away when schools are on holiday? 

30%. 

[Mikey1874]

Coming to Scotland soon

 

 

[BlueRiver]

6 minutes ago, Dazo said:

30%. 

 

Bet the canvassed the holiday makers too and they're all SNP as well. Dastardly Tories doing everything to keep the good people of Scotland down. 

[BlueRiver]

1 minute ago, Mikey1874 said:

Coming to Scotland soon

 

 

 

If he didn't reply with "haha get it right ****ing up yi" he deserves to lose. 

[John Findlay]

13 minutes ago, luckydug said:

Are you drunk ?

I wish.

[redjambo]

4 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

Coming to Scotland soon

 

 

 

Can't believe I'm defending him, but that's a reasonable question to ask. Even if your team hasn't qualified, the football fest is usually quite fun and entertaining. If Wales had been eliminated due to some controversial incident à la Thierry Henry handball then he would be skating on thin ice, but they weren't.

[ehcaley]

6 minutes ago, luckydug said:

My constituency has been renamed Lothian East due to constituency changes. Don't know how much difference it makes but apparently Labour are 92%  likely to win.

SNP captured the old seat last time out but look done now.

Probably still get my vote unless there is an independence leaning alternative.

Not that it's going to matter anyway.

 

SNP won seat with Kenny Macaskill who then almost immediately joined ALBA and almost  never visited the constituency again.They have someone( a special advisor?) called Whyte standing this time I did a wee bit research and found he was hardly known in his own household.He had a launch meeting attended by Ms Sturgeon at the Co-operative Club in Tranent attended by approx 15 people 4 weeks ago.

As I posted yesterday vote who you like but get your money on Labour with a majority of 5-8 thousand votes.

In case you are thinking of voting Tory they haven't selected a candidate as yet.

[Nucky Thompson]

I'll be voting Lib-Dems as usual just to keep Edinburgh West a Nationalist free zone 

 

Good old Unionist stronghold 

[Ulysses]

6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Can't believe I'm defending him, but that's a reasonable question to ask. Even if your team hasn't qualified, the football fest is usually quite fun and entertaining. If Wales had been eliminated due to some controversial incident à la Thierry Henry handball then he would be skating on thin ice, but they weren't.

 

I'd either avoid the question or put in some reference to show I knew a bit about what's going on.

[Lone Striker]

18 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

Coming to Scotland soon

 

 

Tattoo bloke and the blue chiffon bursd  clearly hanging on his every word .......😃. 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

Is there anything some Scottish people won’t make a grievance out of?

[Lone Striker]

16 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Can't believe I'm defending him, but that's a reasonable question to ask. Even if your team hasn't qualified, the football fest is usually quite fun and entertaining. If Wales had been eliminated due to some controversial incident à la Thierry Henry handball then he would be skating on thin ice, but they weren't.

Hmmmm ... maybe, but I think you're forgetting that many Welsh folk hate the England football  team almost as much as many Scots do.   I say "well done" to the lad that advised him about Wales not having qualified.

 

 

[Dazo]

8 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Is there anything some Scottish people won’t make a grievance out of?

The snp ? 

[Malinga the Swinga]

Months of nationalists moaning that they want the Tories out and finally we have election and opportunity to vote and do exactly this.

Nationalists now moaning at timing of election.

You couldn't make it up

[redjambo]

28 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

I'd either avoid the question or put in some reference to show I knew a bit about what's going on.

 

And I would have asked the original question with a wink and a wee grin. I suspect you would have made a better politician than me.

[Roxy Hearts]

4 hours ago, BlueRiver said:

 

You gonna be protesting against the election RH? Or you going to be voting like a good wee boy too? 😂

 

It's a peculiarly nationalist Scot trait to see grievance and disrespect everywhere but do nothing substantive about it apart from whinge and vote SNP anyway. 

Not going to protest and why would I? Most of the grievance on here as by Unionist Scots whinging and moaning about Scots wishing self determination.

 

I will say that if you think Westminster respects Scotland, you've not been alive long enough! 

[Jeffros Furios]

tears and snotters everywhere... this is going to be a great 6 weeks 

Arise Sir Keir !! 

[Costanza]

I have a bold plan to vote for whoever ensures the Tories don't get in.

[JudyJudyJudy]

42 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Can't believe I'm defending him, but that's a reasonable question to ask. Even if your team hasn't qualified, the football fest is usually quite fun and entertaining. If Wales had been eliminated due to some controversial incident à la Thierry Henry handball then he would be skating on thin ice, but they weren't.

Agreed !  

[Ulysses]

18 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

And I would have asked the original question with a wink and a wee grin. I suspect you would have made a better politician than me.

 

If it was Scotland or NI, I'd make a joke of it.  Not Wales, though.  No sense of humour, that lot. 

 

 

 

Edited May 23 by Ulysses

[RustyRightPeg]

Lesser of two evils me thinks.

 

Leaning towards whoever keeps the Tories out.

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

If it was Scotland or NI, I'd make a joke of it.  Not Wales, though.  No sense of humour, that lot. 

 

 

 

 

But, but, Max Boyce!

 

On reflection, I concede the point.

[Ribble]

19 hours ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Whoever in my constituency that has best hance of defeating SNP.

Will most likely be Labour although Tory 2nd last time. 

 

My stance also, however there was very little between Labour (2nd) and the tory's (3rd) last time out so SNP will likely win anyway with tactical votes being split 

[frankblack]

4 minutes ago, Ribble said:

 

My stance also, however there was very little between Labour (2nd) and the tory's (3rd) last time out so SNP will likely win anyway with tactical votes being split 

 

In that scenario Labour is likely the better bet as Tories will take a leathering.

[TallPaul]

55 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Months of nationalists moaning that they want the Tories out and finally we have election and opportunity to vote and do exactly this.

Nationalists now moaning at timing of election.

You couldn't make it up

Grievance is their default position. It's all they have or ever had.

[Thunder and Lightning]

48 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Not going to protest and why would I? Most of the grievance on here as by Unionist Scots whinging and moaning about Scots wishing self determination.

 

I will say that if you think Westminster respects Scotland, you've not been alive long enough! 

May I ask what age you are then Roxy? 

[Ribble]

3 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

In that scenario Labour is likely the better bet as Tories will take a leathering.

 

think it'll all depend on who each party puts up as their candidate, SNP incumbent is stepping down, Labour candidate was elected in 2013 by-election (hold for labour), then came 2nd in both 2015 and 2019 so they may change it up, Tory's may stick with candidate as they were very close to 2nd last time

[SM Sheffield]

2 hours ago, ehcaley said:

Bring back Nick Clegg🤡

Nick Clegg was a far better constituency MP than the idiots Labour have had round here recently. Night and day in comparison. I believe one of them is now in jail?

[Australis]

Nationalists screaming for an election.

And when they get one they greet like wee Jessie's.

 

So it begins.

 

[Australis]

Remember yousless said if they lost lots of their seats they would still have a mandate for a referendum.

 

Its going to be fun.

 

[Roxy Hearts]

53 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

May I ask what age you are then Roxy? 

Nearly 63!