jambobas Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 The 455th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 54 leagues, and 900 clubs around the world according to their shooting efficiency. The latter was measured from the residuals of a statistical model explaining 78% of the differences in goals scored per team (not including penalties) on the basis of three variables produced by Wyscout: the number of expected goals according to the dangerousness of the chances created (also not including penalties), the number of shots on target and in total. The study includes matches up to 12th March 2924. The SPL results have us in 4th place, with goals scored, marginally greater than expected goals, while Aberdeen and the Glasgow Duo are at the bottom, with large negative ratios. What does all this mean? There are many factors involved: managerial changes, players, both offensive, and defensive, having an exceptional, or shit season etc. You can use and abuse statistics in all manner of ways, but generally, teams having a better than expected season will be closer to the top, and vice versa. For us, I think it confirms that, apart from Shankland, we're not scoring enough goals. Vargas has made a decent contribution lately, but we really need more goals from our midfielders, and even defenders. For Aberdeen, it's a reflection of their 'wonderful' season, losing games, no confidence, poor decision-making etc. Similarly, with Celtic, score 7 against Dundee, lose twice against us, Furuhashi a long way off last seasons' goal return etc. Top of the overall rankings of the 900 clubs reviewed, by some margin, is PAOK, our recent Greek rivals. PAOK is currently second in the league, and top scorers (just). In 22nd place is Ayr United, with an efficiency rating of 0.38, while Partick Thistle are in 44th place with 0.32. The top SPL team, Motherwell rank at no. 68. Make what you will of these figures, statistical nonsense, or indicative, to some extent, of a team's performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
been here before Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 2 minutes ago, jambobas said: The 455th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams f Lost me at that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spellczech Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 So, in summary...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerTweedy Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 16 hours ago, jambobas said: The 455th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post ranks teams from 54 leagues, and 900 clubs around the world according to their shooting efficiency. The latter was measured from the residuals of a statistical model explaining 78% of the differences in goals scored per team (not including penalties) on the basis of three variables produced by Wyscout: the number of expected goals according to the dangerousness of the chances created (also not including penalties), the number of shots on target and in total. The study includes matches up to 12th March 2924. The SPL results have us in 4th place, with goals scored, marginally greater than expected goals, while Aberdeen and the Glasgow Duo are at the bottom, with large negative ratios. What does all this mean? There are many factors involved: managerial changes, players, both offensive, and defensive, having an exceptional, or shit season etc. You can use and abuse statistics in all manner of ways, but generally, teams having a better than expected season will be closer to the top, and vice versa. For us, I think it confirms that, apart from Shankland, we're not scoring enough goals. Vargas has made a decent contribution lately, but we really need more goals from our midfielders, and even defenders. For Aberdeen, it's a reflection of their 'wonderful' season, losing games, no confidence, poor decision-making etc. Similarly, with Celtic, score 7 against Dundee, lose twice against us, Furuhashi a long way off last seasons' goal return etc. Top of the overall rankings of the 900 clubs reviewed, by some margin, is PAOK, our recent Greek rivals. PAOK is currently second in the league, and top scorers (just). In 22nd place is Ayr United, with an efficiency rating of 0.38, while Partick Thistle are in 44th place with 0.32. The top SPL team, Motherwell rank at no. 68. Make what you will of these figures, statistical nonsense, or indicative, to some extent, of a team's performance. Re the bit in bold, I'm really not sure how you can say that. I mean, I agree that we're not scoring enough goals, or at least not enough to consistently maintain recent results in the longer term, but I don't see how our actual goals almost exactly matching our xg confirms that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopeDiouf Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 16 hours ago, jambobas said: The study includes matches up to 12th March 2924. Are these results available anywhere? Asking for a friend who likes a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim_Duncan Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Any metric that says Hibs are outperforming us is, by definition, worthless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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