70 league points

[N Lincs Jambo]

Forgetting the end to the season for a minute, games 11-25 show that we're right up with the arse cheeks. Rangers have 37 points from 14 games, we have 37 points from 15 and Celtic have 35 points from 15. How many people on here realistically expected us to be within 20 points of either after the whole season? I certainly didn't. Not saying it will definitely happen but the last 15 have showed that we have pretty much closed the gap. Here's hoping we don't run out of puff.

[RudiSkacelsLeftPeg]

5 hours ago, Bazzas right boot said:

We could hit 70 points this season. 

 

3rd is always the goal, but I've always thought 70.points would be a milestone and be a step in our fabled "next level".direction.

 

Will be difficult,  but we are going to be close to 70 points at this rate.

 

Fantastic stuff. 

 

 

# disclaimer- assuming the wheels don't fall off.

Definitely achievable and something we should be aiming to do. 
 

Will be interesting to see how far we can go. Exciting times. 

[Jodami]

70 is a lofty goal but certainly something to aspire to. Tbh I would settle for seeing us sustaining form post split. Historically we have not been very good in those last 5 games. If we could take 10 points from those that would be a great finish to the season.

Edited February 8 by Jodami

[TheBigO]

2 hours ago, hmfc_liam06 said:

 

Our wage bill now is higher than it was in 05/06.

 

Reports say £10m in 06 and £15m in 23. Although what is unclear is if the £15m is total wage bill including all staff not just players. 

Yeah its a bit incomparable.  The way our accounts are written, we've no idea what the split of salaries is across players and the rest, or even "football" and "commercial" or whatever.  Even withing football, we've way more sports science, data analysts, salaried scouts/recruitment etc than we had back then.

And then, yeah, inflation in real world but also in footballing terms I'd think will have pushed the average wage up globally and nationally.

 

I'd think in real terms,the wages kicking about back then were higher.... It's a guess though!  Like we're no paying Cochrane the same kinda deal Takis was on!  Even Shanks... Janny must have been on a packet, no?

[hmfc_liam06]

5 minutes ago, TheBigO said:

Yeah its a bit incomparable.  The way our accounts are written, we've no idea what the split of salaries is across players and the rest, or even "football" and "commercial" or whatever.  Even withing football, we've way more sports science, data analysts, salaried scouts/recruitment etc than we had back then.

And then, yeah, inflation in real world but also in footballing terms I'd think will have pushed the average wage up globally and nationally.

 

I'd think in real terms,the wages kicking about back then were higher.... It's a guess though!  Like we're no paying Cochrane the same kinda deal Takis was on!  Even Shanks... Janny must have been on a packet, no?

 

Yeah the whole wage bill thing is definitely muddied. 2005 might have had everything included also. 

I'd suspect our squad average will be potentially higher now but we likely had a few serious earners in 05/06.

[Sub4TiddlerMurray]

2 minutes ago, TheBigO said:

Yeah its a bit incomparable.  The way our accounts are written, we've no idea what the split of salaries is across players and the rest, or even "football" and "commercial" or whatever.  Even withing football, we've way more sports science, data analysts, salaried scouts/recruitment etc than we had back then.

And then, yeah, inflation in real world but also in footballing terms I'd think will have pushed the average wage up globally and nationally.

 

I'd think in real terms,the wages kicking about back then were higher.... It's a guess though!  Like we're no paying Cochrane the same kinda deal Takis was on!  Even Shanks... Janny must have been on a packet, no?

 

I'm pretty sure that the food outlets retail store and catering staff were outsourced in 05/06 but are now in-house, including the new hotel. At least I think that’s the case, so we now have considerably more employees 

[TheBigO]

7 minutes ago, Sub4TiddlerMurray said:

 

I'm pretty sure that the food outlets retail store and catering staff were outsourced in 05/06 but are now in-house, including the new hotel. At least I think that’s the case, so we now have considerably more employees 

Yup.  But all our own income too.  Much better now, but reasonably unique.  People are used to looking at a football club's wage bill, especially in Scotland and expecting the vast majority to be players and coaches.  What must ours be?  50% of the total?  No idea

[Hearts_fan]

Good discussion to be having, regardless of “one game at a time” idea.

 

Points targets raise the spirit of a winning mentality, and that’s important for the supporters as well as the team. 

[Sub4TiddlerMurray]

2 hours ago, hmfc_liam06 said:

 

Yeah the whole wage bill thing is definitely muddied. 2005 might have had everything included also. 

I'd suspect our squad average will be potentially higher now but we likely had a few serious earners in 05/06.

2005 definitely had food and retail staff outsourced 

[Cruyff]

One game at a time. Just need to keep winning. 

[Uncle Buck]

39 points to play for and 22 points away from 70. I reckon we can do that no bother.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

The true ceiling is 87 points at this point. I'm not for one minute saying I expect to achieve that but at the same time we're in incredible form, have a very stout defence (particularly when Rowles and Natty get back, even if just for depth), and the best striker in the league.

 

At the same time, as a composite the field of Rangers, Celtic, Hibs, and Aberdeen is as weak as it's been in at least a decade if not more. Folk say we can't expect to take much off Rangers, I say they've beaten us three times this season and in one if not two of those they were lucky AF to do so. In one we shat it at the end and in the other Butland alone kept us off the score sheet. I'm not sure they're beating us again.

 

And they're the better of the OF. I really thought Celtic had too much quality to be caught this year but **** me they look about as dangerous as a good Aberdeen team at the moment. Meanwhile I'll be seriously pissed if we drop any points to Hibs and Dons the rest of the way. We're so much better than they are at this point.

 

Weirdly, Dundee, Kilmarnock, and Mirren are our greatest threats to dropping points.

 

If there's a year for us to run up a gaudy point total, this is it.

[connlach]

Last season we got 51 points and Aberdeen ended up with 54 for 3rd place. Amazing to think we beat Motherwell and we would already have 51 points. We would need a hibsesque relegation party collapse to not get 3rd now.

[DC_92]

6 minutes ago, connlach said:

Last season we got 51 points and Aberdeen ended up with 54 for 3rd place. Amazing to think we beat Motherwell and we would already have 51 points. We would need a hibsesque relegation party collapse to not get 3rd now.

 

We finished on 54 and Aberdeen on 57.

[connlach]

19 minutes ago, DC_92 said:

 

We finished on 54 and Aberdeen on 57.

Oh sorry I must have been drunk when I checked last night 🤣 thanks for the confirmation 

[JFK-1]

I think if you were to ask the bookies for a price on Hearts failing to make 3rd now you would get impressive odds. Nothing can ever be certain but to lose it now it would take a collapse of mega proportions that just isn't going to happen.

As for the OF Rangers now look the form side and favourites for the title. Something has gone off the rails at Celtic and I don't know what but consider some stats from their game last night.

Hubz had 12 shots at goal to 8 for Celtic, 4 on target in comparison to 3 for Celtic.  Such stats absolutely never happen in games against the OF either home or away, it took 2 penalties for them to win it.

 

At the sheep Celtic had 22 shots at goal against 8 for the sheep and that's typical OF stats. I think Rangers are building up a head of steam but Celtic are looking vulnerable.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

FWIW even in an epic collapse at this point I don't think we're dropping further than 4th. We're further ahead than we were last season and even then we only fell to 4th.

 

We've done this to death, but still finishing 4th would mean the prior three seasons would tie our best three year run of finishes since 1960.

 

What a low we fell to in 2020, how we've roared out of it since!

[heartsfc_fan]

I think we'll end up on 68-73 points which will be a decent haul.

Edited February 8 by heartsfc_fan

[Wee Mikey]

9 hours ago, Jodami said:

70 is a lofty goal but certainly something to aspire to. Tbh I would settle for seeing us sustaining form post split. Historically we have not been very good in those last 5 games. If we could take 10 points from those that would be a great finish to the season.

 

I'm with you on that.

 

See if we have 3rd place wrapped up by the split? Nae faffin' aboot. Rather, foot on the gas and aim as high as possible.

 

I reckon that we'll do better post-split than recent seasons.

[Wee Mikey]

10 hours ago, Bazzas right boot said:

Yip, and no one is suggesting we play more than one game at a time!

 

I am!!! Lol.

 

Let H1b5 & A'deen combine their teams.

 

If we win (which we would) we'd gain 6 points.

 

You know it makes sense. 🤣

[JFK-1]

It would be impressive in terms of recent history to finish less than 20 points behind 2nd place. Last season that gap was 35 points while previous season when Hearts were last 3rd was 38 points. While 4th placed Dundee United were 13 points behind 3rd.

I foresee Hearts continuing at least not be beaten very often, and all things being equal you would be looking for a defeat to come from only the OF. The 3 below will all frequently lose and draw a lot as they consistently have all season, that's not going to change on the run in.

The run in is when depth of squad really kicks in and obviously no one can match the OF in that department. I think the 3 below are going to fall further behind which makes me further think it's a possibility 3rd may already be secured going into the split.

 

As for the sheep and hubz it's sort of funny that both of them are thinking their draws against Celtic were evidence of a turning point, an obviously misfiring Celtic, this isn't the Celtic of last season or even earlier this season. 

 

We will see, entirely possible either or both could be outside top 6. Warnock is known for saving teams from relegation not taking them anyplace, i'm sure he can help the sheep escape relegation.  

[Arthur Morgan]

3 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

As for the sheep and hubz it's sort of funny that both of them are thinking their draws against Celtic

 

In Hibs' case, it was a glorious defeat! 😅

[JFK-1]

1 minute ago, Arthur Morgan said:

 

In Hibs' case, it was a glorious defeat! 😅

 

Yeah great point, I even forgot that part. But yeah, no one is going to be catching up, they're going to fall further behind. It's sort of baffling that Celtic are unravelling like this, and it sounds odd saying that since they dug out a win at hubz. But we all know this isn't Celtic of even earlier this season.

 

I know they have had outgoings who were key players, but again, who can match the OF for quality in depth, yet still they're stuttering. While Rangers on the other hand I think look to becoming stronger if anything, more difficult for any side to handle.

If they have a weakness it's that they're somewhat stuttering at the front, they can absolutely blitz a team right from the kick off and all through a game but aren't taking advantage of it goal wise.

 

If they make Champions league I think they might spend major money on a striker, and it wont be Shankland, it will be someone younger and with an increasing not decreasing sell on value. 

[Heres Rixxy]

14 hours ago, TheBigO said:

Yeah its a bit incomparable.  The way our accounts are written, we've no idea what the split of salaries is across players and the rest, or even "football" and "commercial" or whatever.  Even withing football, we've way more sports science, data analysts, salaried scouts/recruitment etc than we had back then.

And then, yeah, inflation in real world but also in footballing terms I'd think will have pushed the average wage up globally and nationally.

 

I'd think in real terms,the wages kicking about back then were higher.... It's a guess though!  Like we're no paying Cochrane the same kinda deal Takis was on!  Even Shanks... Janny must have been on a packet, no?

 

I've not doubt as well that some of the wagers were paid via Kaunas. Janny and Aguiar for example if memory serves signed for them and were loaned to us. Rudi was on loan so probably only partial wagers. Miko and Chesney maybe still loans too?

[Bazzas right boot]

15 hours ago, Cruyff said:

One game at a time. Just need to keep winning. 

 

Best idea, playing 2 or 3 at at time would cause an issue.

 

 

[Bazzas right boot]

9 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

FWIW even in an epic collapse at this point I don't think we're dropping further than 4th. We're further ahead than we were last season and even then we only fell to 4th.

 

We've done this to death, but still finishing 4th would mean the prior three seasons would tie our best three year run of finishes since 1960.

 

What a low we fell to in 2020, how we've roared out of it since!

 

3d, 4th, 3rd is where we should be.

 

Do that for a good few seasons then we can start looking up.

[Tommy Brown]

Pre split 64 points, post split 72 points

 

Will continue to say though, we are still not convincing enough in the final third.

Games remain tight, we rarely win handsomely. Hopefully that will develop.

 

Next level is to be consistently "best of rest", we now have a squad that can make us that.

Making substitutions now doesn't weaken the side in any way.

 

How things change, our first 10 got us 11 points and fans were wanting rid of Naisy.

Our next 15 have 37 points.

[Ribble]

On 08/02/2024 at 08:52, Carter said:

Think it was Postecoglu that signed Scales. Celtic have been massively complacent. They've thought they can get away with investing as little as possible and banking piles of cash from their abject European participation. Huns aren't a great side but there's every chance they'll win the league. If that does transpire there are a number of people, Desmond and Lawwell in particular, who will get hammered for their part. If Huns do win the league Brenda will be off. Doesn't look a good fit at all. Celtic are a mess of a side. 

 

It's something i've found strange with Celtic, they hoard cash but to what end? Like if we get a sale like Jota to the Saudi's and rake in £30m it changes our club immeasurably yet for them it's just more money they can't spend, the market they shop in is limited by who will come to Scottish football meaning they hit a ceiling of £5-8m players and when their squad is already at that level they are just refreshing the squad without improving any and it only takes a couple of those signing to not work and they go backwards.

 

With the Jota one that only works if you can replace him for say £15m with a player that has an even higher upside but then the £15m player doesn't want to be playing in Scotland

[Watt-Zeefuik]

1 hour ago, Ribble said:

 

It's something i've found strange with Celtic, they hoard cash but to what end? Like if we get a sale like Jota to the Saudi's and rake in £30m it changes our club immeasurably yet for them it's just more money they can't spend, the market they shop in is limited by who will come to Scottish football meaning they hit a ceiling of £5-8m players and when their squad is already at that level they are just refreshing the squad without improving any and it only takes a couple of those signing to not work and they go backwards.

 

With the Jota one that only works if you can replace him for say £15m with a player that has an even higher upside but then the £15m player doesn't want to be playing in Scotland

 

I wonder if they're building up a fund to re-do the main stand. If they get a 70k+ stadium and fill it it makes it extremely hard for Rangers to match them financially going forward.

[Carter]

3 hours ago, Ribble said:

 

It's something i've found strange with Celtic, they hoard cash but to what end? Like if we get a sale like Jota to the Saudi's and rake in £30m it changes our club immeasurably yet for them it's just more money they can't spend, the market they shop in is limited by who will come to Scottish football meaning they hit a ceiling of £5-8m players and when their squad is already at that level they are just refreshing the squad without improving any and it only takes a couple of those signing to not work and they go backwards.

 

With the Jota one that only works if you can replace him for say £15m with a player that has an even higher upside but then the £15m player doesn't want to be playing in Scotland

Greed. Think they are superior. Also a mentality thing with them. They are sitting on an obscene amount of cash. 

 

Jota seems to have been replaced by Palma. He won't go anywhere for a considerable upside. Not sure the boy from Vienna is likely to either. Some of the shite they've recruited at CB is a ticking time bomb for them too. 

 

Looks to me their recruitment isn't having the same success as it has done previously. Incredibly hard to replicate the success they've had. Their wage bill must be really high. They've even been able to sign James McCarthy as a poster boy for the lowest denominator within their support without any intention of playing him! 

 

There will be huge friction looming between the fans and the Board if this season turns to shit. Which is quite likely based on their performance on Wednesday and previous games. 

[FarmerTweedy]

On 08/02/2024 at 10:00, tian447 said:

Our games pre-split are:

Motherwell (H)

Rangers (A)

Hibs (H)

Celtic (H)

Ross County (A)

Kilmarnock (H)

St Mirren (A)

Livingston (H)

 

Post-split, we then know it will be games against Celtic and Rangers:

Celtic (A)

Rangers (H)

 

And 3 from the following: 

 

Kilmarnock (A)

St Mirren (H)

Dundee (H)

Hibs (A)

Motherwell (A)

Aberdeen (A)

 

The post-split (H) and (A) are pure guesswork, based on how many home and away matches we've played already this season.  An (A) is for 2 home matches pre-split, and an (H) is for 2 away matches pre-split).  We know it doesn't always work out like that, and we're just as likely to have 3 away games as we are to have 3 home games, with seemingly no logic to how it's worked out.

 

7 wins from that are definitely possible.  We should really be looking for at least 4 wins pre-split against Motherwell, Hibs, Ross County, St Mirren, Kilmarnock, and Livingston; if we win all of them, great.  4 Old Firm fixtures, you'd like to think we could do the business at least once, especially in the home matches.  If we want to start challenging at the top end of the table, we're going to have to figure out how to get past them, so why not start now.

 

Maybe 70 points isn't that unrealistic.

There is (some) logic to it.  Generally, teams get 3 away games post-split if they had 17 home and 16 away pre-split, 3 home games post-split if they had 16 home and 17 away pre-split.  That only works out for all teams if the split ends up with the top and bottom halves both having 3 teams that have played 17h/16a and 3 that have played 16h/17a.  If not, at least one team has to play an extra home game and at least one an extra away game. As we'll have played 17 home games before the split, we should get 2 home and 3 away post-split. 

 

They generally try to make it that the teams that have unbalanced fixtures are the ones that are least likely to have anything to play for, which is why we got shafted in 2018. We should have got 3 home games post-split but someone had to only get 2, and as we were down in 6th with little or no chance of a European place, we were chosen to miss out on a home game as it was seen as having least potential impact on league positions, European qualification, etc.

 

There's actually a decent chance we could get an extra home game if things stay roughly how they are just now. If the balance of teams at the split means 4 teams in the top 6 have played 17 home games, one of them will get an extra home game post-split, and if we're well clear of 4th and well behind 2nd, we may well get the extra home game as the arsecheeks will be competing for the league (not that they'd ever risk ww3 by giving it to either of them even if the league was sewn up!), and 4th to 6th will be competing for the last two (possible) European spots.

[FarmerTweedy]

On 08/02/2024 at 12:04, Hagar the Horrible said:

The stats are in our favour,  I recon at worst we would need 64 points to finish third, based on everybody else's average, and recent form.  At best we only need 4 more wins, taking out the OF games for us to have too many points for to be caught.

 

But if we take our ave. points from the worst part of the season I.E. first 15 games we would amass 65 points, but taking out all OF games we would get at the very worst 60 points,  St Mirren at best will reach 54, the current on form team on their best average.

 

Our average of the season so far, we would reach 73 points,  But the scary one is our last 10 games average we would achieve 84 points.   But with 4 OF games to go an we lose them all our average would get us to 73 points.  The mean with the remaining games losing all OF games will get us to 69 points, we only need a draw in one OF game to get to that 70 mark, do-able

Not quite sure how you've calculated that, or why you've chosen the first 15 games. We took 23 points from the first 15 games, so with 13 to go we'd get another 20, for a total of 68. But 15 games is an odd choice, as we lost the 16th, bringing the average down slightly further, but had won 4 in a row from 11-14.  A more sensible choice for the worst period would surely have been the first 10 games, from which we only took 11 points. Going back to that average would give us 12 more points for a total of 60. Of course, there are all sorts of ways you could chop this stuff up!  And even if we did only end up on 60 points, I don't really see anyone below us getting to that total!

[FarmerTweedy]

On 08/02/2024 at 12:29, Bazzas right boot said:

 

Yip, and no one is suggesting we play more than one game at a time!

 

 

Yep, leave that to the likes of Dagenham And Redbridge! 

[FarmerTweedy]

On 08/02/2024 at 13:42, hmfc_liam06 said:

 

Yeah the whole wage bill thing is definitely muddied. 2005 might have had everything included also. 

I'd suspect our squad average will be potentially higher now but we likely had a few serious earners in 05/06.

Your second paragraph there is probably about right. Takis, Rudi, Janny, Bednar, etc were almost certainly on more money then than any of our players are on now, but the rest of the squad, including star players like Gordon, Hartley and Pressley were probably on less than our top players now, as they were on older contracts pre-dating Romanov's spending. Adjusting for inflation would probably put those players on comparable, or even higher, wages to our current top players though. The VR era wage bill really rocketed over the following year or so as we recruited more players and gave juicy new contracts to the likes of the aforementioned Gordon, Hartley and Pressley, as well as folk like Andy Driver and Jamie Mole!

[FarmerTweedy]

On 08/02/2024 at 16:17, Sub4TiddlerMurray said:

2005 definitely had food and retail staff outsourced 

And we've substantially expanded matchday hospitality, non-matchday meeting/conference hosting, brought in the women's team, etc. We're a much bigger operation now outside of the first team squad, management, etc.  Plus we're a living wage employer, so we're paying some of these staff a bit more than we might otherwise be doing (something I'm very much in favour of, by the way)!

[FarmerTweedy]

On 08/02/2024 at 18:30, Watt-Zeefuik said:

The true ceiling is 87 points at this point. I'm not for one minute saying I expect to achieve that but at the same time we're in incredible form, have a very stout defence (particularly when Rowles and Natty get back, even if just for depth), and the best striker in the league.

 

At the same time, as a composite the field of Rangers, Celtic, Hibs, and Aberdeen is as weak as it's been in at least a decade if not more. Folk say we can't expect to take much off Rangers, I say they've beaten us three times this season and in one if not two of those they were lucky AF to do so. In one we shat it at the end and in the other Butland alone kept us off the score sheet. I'm not sure they're beating us again.

 

And they're the better of the OF. I really thought Celtic had too much quality to be caught this year but **** me they look about as dangerous as a good Aberdeen team at the moment. Meanwhile I'll be seriously pissed if we drop any points to Hibs and Dons the rest of the way. We're so much better than they are at this point.

 

Weirdly, Dundee, Kilmarnock, and Mirren are our greatest threats to dropping points.

 

If there's a year for us to run up a gaudy point total, this is it.

Rodgers has taken that team backwards a staggering amount from where Postecoglu had them.

[FarmerTweedy]

19 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

It would be impressive in terms of recent history to finish less than 20 points behind 2nd place. Last season that gap was 35 points while previous season when Hearts were last 3rd was 38 points. While 4th placed Dundee United were 13 points behind 3rd.

I foresee Hearts continuing at least not be beaten very often, and all things being equal you would be looking for a defeat to come from only the OF. The 3 below will all frequently lose and draw a lot as they consistently have all season, that's not going to change on the run in.

The run in is when depth of squad really kicks in and obviously no one can match the OF in that department. I think the 3 below are going to fall further behind which makes me further think it's a possibility 3rd may already be secured going into the split.

 

As for the sheep and hubz it's sort of funny that both of them are thinking their draws against Celtic were evidence of a turning point, an obviously misfiring Celtic, this isn't the Celtic of last season or even earlier this season. 

 

We will see, entirely possible either or both could be outside top 6. Warnock is known for saving teams from relegation not taking them anyplace, i'm sure he can help the sheep escape relegation.  

It was 28, not 38!  Still not great though!

[N Lincs Jambo]

4 minutes ago, FarmerTweedy said:

Rodgers has taken that team backwards a staggering amount from where Postecoglu had them.

He certainly has. I would be quite happy to get Celtic in the cup quarterfinals (assuming of course we both go through). League momentum is with Rangers. Can’t believe how badly Rodgers has done with that Postecoglou team.

[FarmerTweedy]

18 hours ago, Heres Rixxy said:

 

I've not doubt as well that some of the wagers were paid via Kaunas. Janny and Aguiar for example if memory serves signed for them and were loaned to us. Rudi was on loan so probably only partial wagers. Miko and Chesney maybe still loans too?

That's a very good point, I'd forgotten about that! Yes, some players were signed specifically to play for us, but signed for Kaunas first then came to us on loan and were paid by Kaunas, not us. It seemed to be largely an attempt at a tax dodge by VR, one which ultimately left the club with a large tax bill from HMRC after Vlad had pulled the plug on funding all the huge contracts he'd signed us up to!

[FarmerTweedy]

13 hours ago, Tommy Brown said:

Pre split 64 points, post split 72 points

 

Will continue to say though, we are still not convincing enough in the final third.

Games remain tight, we rarely win handsomely. Hopefully that will develop.

 

Next level is to be consistently "best of rest", we now have a squad that can make us that.

Making substitutions now doesn't weaken the side in any way.

 

How things change, our first 10 got us 11 points and fans were wanting rid of Naisy.

Our next 15 have 37 points.

One thing I like about Naismith is that even though he (rightly) praises a lot of what we're doing, and how we've improved, he's quite open and clear about how we need to be better in the attacking areas, and that we'll be continuing to work on that, as well as other aspects in which we could improve. 

[Sub4TiddlerMurray]

10 hours ago, FarmerTweedy said:

And we've substantially expanded matchday hospitality, non-matchday meeting/conference hosting, brought in the women's team, etc. We're a much bigger operation now outside of the first team squad, management, etc.  Plus we're a living wage employer, so we're paying some of these staff a bit more than we might otherwise be doing (something I'm very much in favour of, by the way)!

Totally agree with the living wage too 👍