Pro-Independence and Pro-Brexit

[Highlander]

On 04/03/2022 at 16:34, scott herbertson said:

1. That is a meaningless statement. The starting point for the rate between the Euro  and the pound was not 1:1. Since 2000 the Euro has been FAR stronger than the pound

 

2. Looking at the history of both currencies vs the dollar I can see little difference in their ups and downs. Now we are out of the EU I would expect the pound to be looked at with less confidence internationally than the Euro (simply because it is a smaller economy)  when the worlds economy goes through rough patches

 

3. Yes, and that makes it a better bet when times get rough - why is the ECB having more power worse than the Bank of England having more power?

 

4. The ECB wields power over interest rates, monetary policy, spending levels and trade deals, none of which is economic independence.  - same as Bank of England = no difference

 

5. The purpose surely of becoming independent is to secure political and economic independence, which does not exist inside the EU. No it isn't - it is to take some  decisions nationally and some collectively eg membership of collective arrangements like the EU, holding nuclear weapons, education, health, taxation. Happy to pool and have a say in strategic political issues, regulations, immigration and trade deals

6. The trade deal issue is a very important one because 61% of Scotland's trade is with the UK and is integral to our economic resilience.   The Euro as such has no impact on this ie it is not a currency matter. If we had a Scottish pound but were in the EU it would be the same as if we had the Euro (probably slightly worse as English and Wales and NI businesses will have paperwork and procedures for the Euro.

1. I stated that sterling is currently a stronger currency than the Euro. It is not a "meaningless statement" but a demonstrable fact. And the figures you utilised, which I do not recognise but am willing to accept, emphasise precisely my point. When you compare the 12 years when sterling showed an annual percentage point drop (-44.78%) and subtract that from the 11 years in which there was an uptick in sterling (+83.79%), it still outstrips the euro by 39%. Thanks for making my point for me.  

2. You can expect with perfect utility that sterling will "be looked at with less confidence internationally than the Euro" but that analysis is not borne out by the facts. The OECD, IMF and Goldman Sachs have all projected, and so far been validated, in their assessment that the British economy will outstrip other advanced EU economies for 2022. Nobody saw that one coming but the economic bounce we have experienced is precisely because our economic resilience is not welded to the strength or weakness of 27 other member states.

3. The Bank of England is primarily a regulatory body and has independence over setting monetary policy and inflation rates, as ordained by changes introduced by Gordon Brown, but its function and locus does not extend beyond the borders of 27 other nations, or to a body like the ECB which is founded upon the principle of fiscal integration. The BoE does not have responsibility for UK Gov spending levels and has little to no input on trade deals, which sits under the Department for International Trade. 

4. No, the ECB does not, as I have stated above, have the same responsibilities as the Bank of England. There is a big difference. 

5. If you are really saying you are happy to farm out reserved issues like defence, immigration and international trade to ex-Soviet countries like Croatia and the Czech Republic then you are probably in a minority of one. Not even the Remain campaign proposed that. I have no interest in setting the defence or immigration policies of remote nations who are well capable of electing their own people to govern their own affairs and nor should they. But good luck with that argument. 

6. I didn't say the euro would have an impact on a trade deal with the UK but the UK rejoining, or an independent Scotland joining, the EU and coming under the oversight of the ECB definitely will. It would be tantamount to economic suicide to hand international trade negotiations over to the EU and the independent economic analysis is united on that point.       

[scott herbertson]

1 hour ago, Highlander said:

1. I stated that sterling is currently a stronger currency than the Euro. It is not a "meaningless statement" but a demonstrable fact. And the figures you utilised, which I do not recognise but am willing to accept, emphasise precisely my point. When you compare the 12 years when sterling showed an annual percentage point drop (-44.78%) and subtract that from the 11 years in which there was an uptick in sterling (+83.79%), it still outstrips the euro by 39%. Thanks for making my point for me.  

2. You can expect with perfect utility that sterling will "be looked at with less confidence internationally than the Euro" but that analysis is not borne out by the facts. The OECD, IMF and Goldman Sachs have all projected, and so far been validated, in their assessment that the British economy will outstrip other advanced EU economies for 2022. Nobody saw that one coming but the economic bounce we have experienced is precisely because our economic resilience is not welded to the strength or weakness of 27 other member states.
 

 

1. I don't understand what you mean by 'currently a stronger currency' ? Perhaps you could explain as we seem to be discussing from a different perspective. The Euro was worth 61pence in 2000, it is now worth 84pence. Historically it has got far stronger against the pound. It would seem reasonable to compare them over a period of years as currencies go up and down a lot. Today, for example, as I type this, the pound is 'currently' -0.64% against the Euro, tomorrow it could be up again.

 

2. Predictions of strength of a economy do not equate to 'confidence' in a currency.  It's pretty volatile at the moment but confidence in sterling has been weakening recently due to prospects of interest rate hikes. There are lots of sites where you can follow this.  https://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/

 

[Pans Jambo]

On 04/03/2022 at 22:11, doctor jambo said:

I don’t . German Tunisian , Sri Lankan, all people want to live in peace.

Politicians create divide for their own ends  “ they are different”.

an eternal lie.

we are all racial *******s .

we have more in common than separates us .

what makes you different from the English / French / German apart from what you are fed by the politicos?

So why do you want to be apart from

your brothers?

We don't, we just want to be apart from Westminster and be allowed to make our own decisions. Who said it was about borders or being apart from our brothers???

[ri Alban]

On 04/03/2022 at 13:51, Lone Striker said:

In what way did "it" work, ri ?

You'll find out soon enough. 👍

[ri Alban]

[ri Alban]

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, ri Alban said:

whats that from ? I thought it was Christina hendricks ?

[Lone Striker]

3 hours ago, ri Alban said:

You'll find out soon enough. 👍

[Roxy Hearts]

4 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

whats that from ? I thought it was Christina hendricks ?

Outlander.

[JudyJudyJudy]

3 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Outlander.

Heard about it but never seen it 

[Ulysses]

7 hours ago, scott herbertson said:

 

1. I don't understand what you mean by 'currently a stronger currency' ? Perhaps you could explain as we seem to be discussing from a different perspective. The Euro was worth 61pence in 2000, it is now worth 84pence. Historically it has got far stronger against the pound. It would seem reasonable to compare them over a period of years as currencies go up and down a lot. Today, for example, as I type this, the pound is 'currently' -0.64% against the Euro, tomorrow it could be up again.

 

2. Predictions of strength of a economy do not equate to 'confidence' in a currency.  It's pretty volatile at the moment but confidence in sterling has been weakening recently due to prospects of interest rate hikes. There are lots of sites where you can follow this.  https://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/

 

 

I asked, and of course I didn't get an answer.  Economic illiterates, eh?

[Roxy Hearts]

35 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Heard about it but never seen it 

It's great. Fact and fiction mixed with time jumping. About the Jacobite rebellion etc. There's some homoeroticism in it for you James.

[JudyJudyJudy]

19 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

It's great. Fact and fiction mixed with time jumping. About the Jacobite rebellion etc. There's some homoeroticism in it for you James.

Well men in kilts always get me rather excited ! So I’ll need to give it a watch 😂😂😂 

[JudyJudyJudy]

I had a right fancy for Christopher Lambert In “ Highlander “ !!!

 

 

” I’m Connor McLeod of clan McLeod “ in his daft Scottish / French accent had me in hysterics 

[Roxy Hearts]

11 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

Well men in kilts always get me rather excited ! So I’ll need to give it a watch 😂😂😂 

🤣

[Highlander]

On 09/03/2022 at 15:29, scott herbertson said:

 

1. I don't understand what you mean by 'currently a stronger currency' ? Perhaps you could explain as we seem to be discussing from a different perspective. The Euro was worth 61pence in 2000, it is now worth 84pence. Historically it has got far stronger against the pound. It would seem reasonable to compare them over a period of years as currencies go up and down a lot. Today, for example, as I type this, the pound is 'currently' -0.64% against the Euro, tomorrow it could be up again.

 

2. Predictions of strength of a economy do not equate to 'confidence' in a currency.  It's pretty volatile at the moment but confidence in sterling has been weakening recently due to prospects of interest rate hikes. There are lots of sites where you can follow this.  https://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/

 

1. What I mean is the exchange rate of sterling is stronger than the euro and its strength has been pretty stable since 2008 according to all available analysis. As for the rapid bounce in the strength of the euro after the turn of the century, that was precisely because six of the EU's ten biggest net contributors (Austria, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Holland) joined the eurozone in 1999. Had the fiscally conservative antenna of Gordon Brown not been as attuned, we would now be trading with it. So you're right, historically the euro has got stronger, there is no arguing that, but its exchange rate is still weaker than sterling and leaving the EU has shattered the inevitability of ever joining the eurozone, situating ourselves under the ECB and welding our future economic resilience to 27 other nations. We may disagree, but I consider all of that to be very positive. 

2. You're right but that was not my point. I was stating that that there is little evidence since officially leaving the EU in 2020 that commercial or consumer confidence has been shattered to the extent that was projected and, as recent analysis by the OECD, IMF, Goldman Sachs and several others has shown, the strength of the UK's economy has outstripped all of the EU neighbours despite the growth in recent global unrest.  
 

On 09/03/2022 at 22:53, Ulysses said:

 

I asked, and of course I didn't get an answer.  Economic illiterates, eh?

 

I am not aware that not responding to a random point about Cyprus, which had zero bearing on anything I was talking about, was tantamount to economic illiteracy. 

[ri Alban]

12 minutes ago, Highlander said:

1. What I mean is the exchange rate of sterling is stronger than the euro and its strength has been pretty stable since 2008 according to all available analysis. As for the rapid bounce in the strength of the euro after the turn of the century, that was precisely because six of the EU's ten biggest net contributors (Austria, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Holland) joined the eurozone in 1999. Had the fiscally conservative antenna of Gordon Brown not been as attuned, we would now be trading with it. So you're right, historically the euro has got stronger, there is no arguing that, but its exchange rate is still weaker than sterling and leaving the EU has shattered the inevitability of ever joining the eurozone, situating ourselves under the ECB and welding our future economic resilience to 27 other nations. We may disagree, but I consider all of that to be very positive. 

2. You're right but that was not my point. I was stating that that there is little evidence since officially leaving the EU in 2020 that commercial or consumer confidence has been shattered to the extent that was projected and, as recent analysis by the OECD, IMF, Goldman Sachs and several others has shown, the strength of the UK's economy has outstripped all of the EU neighbours despite the growth in recent global unrest.  
 

 

I am not aware that not responding to a random point about Cyprus, which had zero bearing on anything I was talking about, was tantamount to economic illiteracy. 

The sooner Scotland is free of everything British the better.

[scott herbertson]

1.  I think you are misusing the term "weaker". The Euro is worth less than sterling - always has been if that's what you mean. But it is worth more against the pound than it was when the exchange rate was first set , and in that sense has over the period of time since the exchange rate was established been a stronger currency.  Re the comments about the ECB and being part of a larger currency group. I think that would give us more stability, not less, so we would have to agree to disagree there.

 

2. depends where you measure things from. Here's the latest UK Government assessment of GDP since the pandemic, as an example, and note the second half of the sentence - ie we are growing faster because we fell further.

 

.https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/. The end statement on growth is The UK is forecast to see the fastest growth in the G7 in 2021 and 2022, after seeing the largest fall in GDP in 2020.