Russia Invades Ukraine

[Sawdust Caesar]

That is an impressive bunker with all mod cons, doubt the grunts in the trenches would be happy seeing where their commander eats/sleeps etc compared to them. 

[Cade]

Russia's only aircraft carrier is now 100% useless.

It has been undergoing "upgrades" and "retrofits" for longer than anyone can remember without anything to show for it and now the crew have been pressed into the Marines and sent to the front lines in Ukraine.

The ship was built in Ukraine before the USSR split up.

Russia kept the one hull that was completed and Ukraine sold the other one to China.

[trotter]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Russia's only aircraft carrier is now 100% useless.

It has been undergoing "upgrades" and "retrofits" for longer than anyone can remember without anything to show for it and now the crew have been pressed into the Marines and sent to the front lines in Ukraine.

The ship was built in Ukraine before the USSR split up.

Russia kept the one hull that was completed and Ukraine sold the other one to China.

IIRC it was supposed to be converted into a floating casino, but that never happened. It's been in a lagoon for the last few years as a tourist attraction. Caught fire a few months ago as well. Teehee..

[Cade]

27 minutes ago, trotter said:

IIRC it was supposed to be converted into a floating casino, but that never happened. It's been in a lagoon for the last few years as a tourist attraction. Caught fire a few months ago as well. Teehee..

 

That was the one the Chinese bought from Ukraine.
They used some dodgy shell company out of Macau to buy it under the guise of converting it into a casino but NATO was like

[Sawdust Caesar]

Russia allocating a third of their annual budget to the military to the detriment of health and education etc, 

 

[manaliveits105]

Russia conscript another  133000 -  a year ago it was 130000 followed by another 150000 in the Spring - they seem quite serious . 

[Cade]

More "desperate" than serious.

They're running out of money and they're running out of time.

They need to try to secure some sort of victory before they totally collapse.

Throwing endless meat waves at Ukrainian guns has resulted in modest territorial gains but at a vast cost in men and machines.
No armed forces in the world can keep this rate of attrition up for very long.
All of their old cold war storage depots are being emptied at astonishing rates and their new conscripts can barely even hold a gun.

They're just hoping Trump wins in November and sells out to Putin. That's it. That's their strategy.

Edited Tuesday at 15:25 by Cade

[Mikey1874]

A million dead Russian soldiers would certainly be remembered.

[Cade]

Seems that Vuhledar has finally fallen.

And all it took the Russians was two years of constant fighting, 800 destroyed armoured vehicles and tens of thousands of dead men.

 

On to the next town, I guess.

Well I say town. Pile of rubble is more accurate.

 

[Tennant's 6's]

3 hours ago, Cade said:

More "desperate" than serious.

They're running out of money and they're running out of time.

They need to try to secure some sort of victory before they totally collapse.

Throwing endless meat waves at Ukrainian guns has resulted in modest territorial gains but at a vast cost in men and machines.
No armed forces in the world can keep this rate of attrition up for very long.
All of their old cold war storage depots are being emptied at astonishing rates and their new conscripts can barely even hold a gun.

They're just hoping Trump wins in November and sells out to Putin. That's it. That's their strategy.

Where are you getting this from?

 

Not being critical but from the people that I listen to, former cia analysts/ former state dept officials, ex military, ex diplomats, independent journalists etc

they say ukraine has lost well over 500k dead, plenty severly wounded,  russia likley less than half that, no human waves but stand off artillery barrages & these massive glide bombs plus occassional unstoppable hypersonic kinzhal or iskander missiles. 

That their intention is the degradation of Ukraine/ NATO weapons and personnel, not territorial gains.

[Mikey1874]

1 minute ago, Tennant's 6's said:

Where are you getting this from?

 

Not being critical but from the people that I listen to, former cia analysts/ former state dept officials, ex military, ex diplomats, independent journalists etc

they say ukraine has lost well over 500k dead, plenty severly wounded,  russia likley less than half that, no human waves but stand off artillery barrages & these massive glide bombs plus occassional unstoppable hypersonic kinzhal or iskander missiles. 

That their intention is the degradation of Ukraine/ NATO weapons and personnel, not territorial gains.

 

No chance that is right. You could post the links. 

[Tennant's 6's]

4 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

No chance that is right. You could post the links. 

Sorry man, I'm looking through all my old youtube videos or bookmarked tweets.

 

I guess you either believe bbc, cnn,  nyt,  wapo etc or not

I have more faith in Col Laurence Wilkerson & Col Douglas MacGegor, Scott Ritter, Frm Amb Alistair Crooke & Chas Freeman,  Ex CIA Analyst Ray McGovern, Larry Johnson, ex state dept official MATT Hoh, ex Swiss/ nato Jacques Baud etc etc

 

None of us are there and propaganda thrives in the fog of war, it's what helps convince people to allow their taxes to be used to kill people instead of improve their own country's infrastructure 

[scott herbertson]

56 minutes ago, Tennant's 6's said:

Sorry man, I'm looking through all my old youtube videos or bookmarked tweets.

 

I guess you either believe bbc, cnn,  nyt,  wapo etc or not

I have more faith in Col Laurence Wilkerson & Col Douglas MacGegor, Scott Ritter, Frm Amb Alistair Crooke & Chas Freeman,  Ex CIA Analyst Ray McGovern, Larry Johnson, ex state dept official MATT Hoh, ex Swiss/ nato Jacques Baud etc etc

 

None of us are there and propaganda thrives in the fog of war, it's what helps convince people to allow their taxes to be used to kill people instead of improve their own country's infrastructure 

 

 

For Russian and Ukranian losses look at Andrew Perpetua's daily reports and the accumulated estimates. Perpetua's losses are each confirmed by video evidence, usually from Russian sources. He only covers veheicles and equipment but regularly throughout the war Russian losses have been around 3 times that of Ukranians

 

I don't know of any reliable statistical source that says the reverse

 

 

Just as an example here are the stats he posted today

 

 

 

 

Each of these has a video link, mapped, to show the event and he has a team of volunteers wading through the online video evidence and mapping evidence to verify these.

 

He doesn't do troop losses but clearly they are likely to be similar proportionately to the equipment losses, perhaps even worse for the Russians as they appear to be using meat grinder tactics of throwing men towards trenches and defensive positions, which always results in more losses for the attacking side.

 

I'd like to see any real evidence to contradict this

Edited Tuesday at 20:09 by scott herbertson

[Tennant's 6's]

6 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

For Russian and Ukranian losses look at Andrew Perpetua's daily reports and the accumulated estimates. Perpetua's losses are each confirmed by video evidence, usually from Russian sources. He only covers veheicles and equipment but regularly throughout the war Russian losses have been around 3 times that of Ukranians

 

I don't know of any reliable statistical source that says the reverse

 

 

Just as an example here are the stats he posted today

 

 

 

 

Each of these has a video link, mapped, to show the event and he has a team of volunteers wading through the online video evidence and mapping evidence to verify these.

 

He doesn't do troop losses but clearly they are likely to be similar proportionately to the equipment losses, perhaps even worse for the Russians as they appear to be using meat grinder tactics of throwing men towards trenches and defensive positions, which always results in more losses for the attacking side.

 

I'd like to see any real evidence to contradict this

Never heard of him so I'll check it out, contradicts the analysts that i listen to, including Professors Sachs, Meirsheimer, Doctorow but I'll look into this source when i have the time 👍

[Mikey1874]

8 minutes ago, Tennant's 6's said:

Never heard of him so I'll check it out, contradicts the analysts that i listen to, including Professors Sachs, Meirsheimer, Doctorow but I'll look into this source when i have the time 👍

 

You have quoted at least one Russian supporting person alongside US sources. 

 

I do think you make a fair point that pro Ukrainian sources aren't talking about Ukrainian losses which must be severe.

 

But we can take the overall pattern of the war as a decent indication. So if there are 600,000 Ukrainian armed forces deaths, Russian deaths must be at least 2 million. Which we pretty much know can't be true. 

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, Tennant's 6's said:

Sorry man, I'm looking through all my old youtube videos or bookmarked tweets.

 

I guess you either believe bbc, cnn,  nyt,  wapo etc or not

I have more faith in Col Laurence Wilkerson & Col Douglas MacGegor, Scott Ritter, Frm Amb Alistair Crooke & Chas Freeman,  Ex CIA Analyst Ray McGovern, Larry Johnson, ex state dept official MATT Hoh, ex Swiss/ nato Jacques Baud etc etc

 

None of us are there and propaganda thrives in the fog of war, it's what helps convince people to allow their taxes to be used to kill people instead of improve their own country's infrastructure 

 

McGregor?  The guy who was paid by the Russians to call for the annexation of Ukrainian territory in 2014?  And in 2022, paid again to say Russia would finish Ukraine off in 15 days? 

 

Ritter?  The convicted sex offender?  The one who said the Ukrainians were like rabid dogs?  The one who said Ukraine was responsible for the Bucha massacre and that President Biden was a war criminal? 

 

McGovern?  Hoh?  The guys who told us more than once that Russia had defeated Ukraine?   

 

Larry Johnson?  The guy who once tried to claim that Michelle Obama used anti-white racist slurs and claimed that the reason he had no evidence was because the McCain campaign stopped him from using the tapes?  Is he also the one who at the start of 2023 said the West were using Ukraine for a proxy war against Russia, and only giving them enough weapons for six months, even though Russian air defences were superior to anything in the West?  

 

Jacques Baud?  Another one who tried to blame Ukraine (and Britain) for the Bucha massacre?  The one who said the Mafia were probably responsible for killing Alexei Navalny?  The one who said the Skripals weren't poisoned by the Russians, but actually had food poisoning?   

 

 

Yeah well OK then.  🤷‍♂️

 

 

 

[Ulysses]

19 minutes ago, Tennant's 6's said:

Never heard of him so I'll check it out, contradicts the analysts that i listen to, including Professors Sachs, Meirsheimer, Doctorow but I'll look into this source when i have the time 👍

 

Ah here, do I have to look up this lot as well?  

[John mcCartney]

I have more faith in Col Laurence Wilkerson & Col Douglas MacGegor, Scott Ritter,


https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/15hda2w/why_did_douglas_macgregor_go_insane/

 

[BlueRiver]

2 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

McGregor?  The guy who was paid by the Russians to call for the annexation of Ukrainian territory in 2014?  And in 2022, paid again to say Russia would finish Ukraine off in 15 days? 

 

Ritter?  The convicted sex offender?  The one who said the Ukrainians were like rabid dogs?  The one who said Ukraine was responsible for the Bucha massacre and that President Biden was a war criminal? 

 

McGovern?  Hoh?  The guys who told us more than once that Russia had defeated Ukraine?   

 

Larry Johnson?  The guy who once tried to claim that Michelle Obama used anti-white racist slurs and claimed that the reason he had no evidence was because the McCain campaign stopped him from using the tapes?  Is he also the one who at the start of 2023 said the West were using Ukraine for a proxy war against Russia, and only giving them enough weapons for six months, even though Russian air defences were superior to anything in the West?  

 

Jacques Baud?  Another one who tried to blame Ukraine (and Britain) for the Bucha massacre?  The one who said the Mafia were probably responsible for killing Alexei Navalny?  The one who said the Skripals weren't poisoned by the Russians, but actually had food poisoning?   

 

 

Yeah well OK then.  🤷‍♂️

 

 

 

 

You've more energy than me for this at times Uly but well played. 

 

An absolute pantheon of utter melts and screwballs being granted a veneer of respectability due to previous roles they held. 

[BlueRiver]

2 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Ah here, do I have to look up this lot as well?  

 

Meirsheimer felt that a nuclear deterrent was required in Europe after the US is gone because Germany would try and conquer the continent...

 

Fud. 

[Ulysses]

47 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

You've more energy than me for this at times Uly but well played. 

 

An absolute pantheon of utter melts and screwballs being granted a veneer of respectability due to previous roles they held. 

 

Yep, and it never ceases to bemuse me why some people like to believe some of this stuff for no other reason than that it's a bit different and presented in an entertaining fashion, usually on video.

 

 

44 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

Meirsheimer felt that a nuclear deterrent was required in Europe after the US is gone because Germany would try and conquer the continent...

 

Fud. 

 

In that case I'm not going to waste my time checking out the others.

 

 

2 hours ago, John mcCartney said:

I have more faith in Col Laurence Wilkerson & Col Douglas MacGegor, Scott Ritter,


https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/15hda2w/why_did_douglas_macgregor_go_insane/

 

 

Well spotted.  Some interesting points in that discussion about why people who are undoubtedly smart go off the deep end on some issues.

[JFK-1]

56 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Yep, and it never ceases to bemuse me why some people like to believe some of this stuff for no other reason than that it's a bit different and presented in an entertaining fashion, usually on video.

Because they think they’re smarter than you, going to ‘credible’ sources rather than the dumb MSM you go to. Facebook is the smartest.

[Ulysses]

28 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

Because they think they’re smarter than you, going to ‘credible’ sources rather than the dumb MSM you go to. Facebook is the smartest.

 

I know.  They say I should do my own research.

 

But when I do my own research, guess what I find out?  Stuff like this.   I find out stuff like this.

 

 

4 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

McGregor?  The guy who was paid by the Russians to call for the annexation of Ukrainian territory in 2014?  And in 2022, paid again to say Russia would finish Ukraine off in 15 days? 

 

Ritter?  The convicted sex offender?  The one who said the Ukrainians were like rabid dogs?  The one who said Ukraine was responsible for the Bucha massacre and that President Biden was a war criminal? 

 

McGovern?  Hoh?  The guys who told us more than once that Russia had defeated Ukraine?   

 

Larry Johnson?  The guy who once tried to claim that Michelle Obama used anti-white racist slurs and claimed that the reason he had no evidence was because the McCain campaign stopped him from using the tapes?  Is he also the one who at the start of 2023 said the West were using Ukraine for a proxy war against Russia, and only giving them enough weapons for six months, even though Russian air defences were superior to anything in the West?  

 

Jacques Baud?  Another one who tried to blame Ukraine (and Britain) for the Bucha massacre?  The one who said the Mafia were probably responsible for killing Alexei Navalny?  The one who said the Skripals weren't poisoned by the Russians, but actually had food poisoning?   

 

 

Yeah well OK then.  🤷‍♂️

 

 

 

 

 

Sheesh.  🤷‍♂️

[JFK-1]

5 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

I know.  They say I should do my own research.

 

But when I do my own research, guess what I find out?  Stuff like this.   I find out stuff like this.

 

 

 

 

Sheesh.  🤷‍♂️

 

I like the irony of being told to do your own research by someone who has clearly done no research.

[Cade]

For materiel losses, there are several tracking sites which use documented photographs or video evidence of destroyed vehicles and other military equipment.

https://ukr.warspotting.net/
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

For Russian storage depletion there are several companies which offer satellite imagery to the public.
Maxar provide all their images to the public for free, so you can go look at the images yourself.

 

For Russian personnel losses, we used to be able to get information from the Russian government about compensation payments made to wounded soldiers and the families of dead ones, but they stopped giving out that information a while back (hmmmm I wonder why).
Analysts reckon that 1.5% of Russia's GDP is being spent on these compensation payments alone, which reveals the scale of the dead and seriously wounded.
However, the scale many be even larger as there are many stories which have been circulating that the Russian army has been changing the rules on qualification for these compensation payments.
For example they are listing people as "missing" instead of "killed in action" so no compo for the families, or stating that your injury was as a result of you or your unit's negligence so no compo for your injury, things like that.
Basic pay for soldiers has risen sharply because they were running out of volunteers and even foreign mercenaries. New recruits now get 1.9million roubles as a signing on fee (just under $22,000) with an annual salary of 5.2million roubles (just under $60,000). This points to a manpower shortage.

Wages for factory workers have shot up sharply too, with factories all churning out as much military gear as possible 24 hours a day. 
They've gone from an average of 53,000 roubles a month in 2022 up to 85,000 a month in 2024, an increase of 60%.
This also points to heavy equipment losses.

Inflation in Russia is running at 9.1%.
Interest rates are at an eye watering 19%.

Putin has signed countless presidential decrees banning the movement of roubles out of the country, forcibly nationalising many industries, seizing foreign owned business assets and banning the trading of Euros and Dollars at the stock exchange. He's obsessed with keeping the dollar/rouble exchange rate below 100 roubles to the dollar. That appears to be his red line.
Of course, that's only the official exchange rate. When you actually trade dollars and roubles there, it costs you 200 roubles to buy 1 dollar and you only get 50 roubles when selling dollars.
6.4% of GDP is going on military expenses this year, but a good chunk of that is for wages and compensation instead of equipment.
That's 32% of all government spending.

Their economy is burning up.