Russia Invades Ukraine

[Hagar the Horrible]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

Anyone know what the Ukraine loses are atm? We here Russia are losing 1000 men a day but not a lot about Ukraine loses

I think it is 31000 dead  (soldiers) does not include civilians nor wounded  according to the BBC

[Hagar the Horrible]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Ukraine has only officially stated 31,000 killed since the start of the war.

Other sources reckon 70,000 dead and 120,000 seriously wounded.

Russia, of course, claims to have killed 54 million Ukrainian nazi terrorists.

 

I'd say the middle figure is about right.

 

Russia, on the other hand, is taking mental casualties.

Between 350,000 and 720,000 dead (depending which source you pick)
Could be as many again seriously wounded.
Figures here are hard to confirm as Russia doesn't say. And most of their army so far have been foreign mercenaries so they don't even bother counting those.
You used to be able to get hold of the Russian injury payment figures and extrapolate from there, but they stopped releasing that information after a few months.

And they had mobile crematoriums at the front lines to get rid of the bodies so no body bags coming home in trucks for the TV/social media to spread around.

Pick a figure.

 

 

There was talk back in the early days that they were cremating their seriously wounded for the same reason

[Cruyff]

3 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

I think it is 31000 dead  (soldiers) does not include civilians nor wounded  according to the BBC

It'll more likely be hundreds of thousands. 

[Cruyff]

Reports that Ukraine have attacked Russia from a new axis in the Bryansk region. 

[Pap]

52 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Reports that Ukraine have attacked Russia from a new axis in the Bryansk region. 

[Jeff]

54 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Reports that Ukraine have attacked Russia from a new axis in the Bryansk region. 

 

Blocking off Belarus maybe?

[Jacques de Gatineau]

1 hour ago, Cruyff said:

Reports that Ukraine have attacked Russia from a new axis in the Bryansk region. 

 

Who knew Jimmy Calderwood was now dictating Ukrainian strategy?

 

 

[Sawdust Caesar]

 

[JFK-1]

Saw a discussion about Putin's threats of attacking a NATO nation if western arms were used inside Russia. The military guy they were speaking to was of the opinion that's not even credible.

 

Russia can't even remove these Ukrainians from Russian soil and he thinks he can take on even a single prepared NATO nation? How?

 

Putin's bluff has been called and it was speculated it might be just one reason the Ukrainians have done this. They didn't tell anybody they were going to do it maybe because they thought if we talk our allies/donors about this they will likely try to talk us out of it. I think they know the Russians a lot better than we do and they wanted to demonstrate he's bluffing, he's got nothing but bluster,  give us the tools and let us go end this.

 

The western fear is 'escalation' but at this stage it has to be asked how? He can't conjure up an offensive force somewhere else to attack a fully armed NATO nation. With what? Got another bunch of poorly equipped barely trained conscripts to throw into it?

 

You have to start thinking this is the time to give the Ukrainians everything they need and unleash them within reason. They can finish him off for good.

[Jacques de Gatineau]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0473y0p0ego

 

More negative news on the Ukrainians from the BBC...

 

[Malinga the Swinga]

9 minutes ago, Ally said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0473y0p0ego

 

More negative news on the Ukrainians from the BBC...

 

Read article and imo, it isn't negative, it is quite interesting. It's highlighting the difficulties of differentiating between collaboration with the enemy and working to survive.

It's a complex argument and one which to those who live outside Ukraine can't fully comprehend.

[Jacques de Gatineau]

42 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Read article and imo, it isn't negative, it is quite interesting. It's highlighting the difficulties of differentiating between collaboration with the enemy and working to survive.

It's a complex argument and one which to those who live outside Ukraine can't fully comprehend.

I agree. 

 

Someone on here mentioned they had noticed a shift in the BBC's reporting. I think this kind of story was less common in the early days of the war as everyone started hanging up Ukrainian flags and all that kind of stuff.

[Cade]

There's plenty of internal problems facing Ukraine, from pro-Russian activists to widespread corruption to young men not wanting to fight.

 

But as an EU candidate they are working to solve the corruption problems with a new agency dedicated to it.

This agency is also managing to uncover Russian cells as a by-product of their work.

 

The young people not wanting to fight is understandable and Ukraine's armed force have many people in their 40s and 50s, because they remember life as part of the USSR and all volunteered to help avoid that situation again. The youth have no personal experience of that so they're less gung-ho about it.

Ukraine so far has managed to get by without major mandatory conscription. But the longer things go on the more likely they'll be to have to do a general mobilisation.

 

The economy is doing better now, with more grain hitting the markets as farmers adjust to a new reality.

More factories are being built all the time but that takes time for their production to ramp up.

 

The nation has been at full scale war for 2 1/2 years so things are going to be difficult.

But then the Russians are in a far more perilous state.

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Read article and imo, it isn't negative, it is quite interesting. It's highlighting the difficulties of differentiating between collaboration with the enemy and working to survive.

It's a complex argument and one which to those who live outside Ukraine can't fully comprehend.

 

It is complicated.  If I'd been in her position I'd have done exactly what she did, and if the only way to do that was to collaborate with whoever had installed themselves as the powers that be, then that's what I would have done.  But Ukraine is entitled to defend itself, and entitled to prevent its citizens from co-operating with the invaders.

 

Countries like France, Belgium and the Netherlands faced the same kind of moral dilemma when the Nazis rolled in.  Do you completely ban all co-operation with the occupier regardless of the cost to your people, or do you co-operate with the occupier so that your people can continue having some semblance of normal life?

[Jacques de Gatineau]

22 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

It is complicated.  If I'd been in her position I'd have done exactly what she did, and if the only way to do that was to collaborate with whoever had installed themselves as the powers that be, then that's what I would have done.  But Ukraine is entitled to defend itself, and entitled to prevent its citizens from co-operating with the invaders.

 

Countries like France, Belgium and the Netherlands faced the same kind of moral dilemma when the Nazis rolled in.  Do you completely ban all co-operation with the occupier regardless of the cost to your people, or do you co-operate with the occupier so that your people can continue having some semblance of normal life?

 

Yep, can't blame her at all, really. People have to adapt to reality to survive.

 

I'm just surprised at the framing of the article (especially the headline) from the BBC.

[Cade]

The final heavy duty railcar ferry serving the Kerch strait has been hit (again).

Last time it was hit when empty and the damage to the deck was repaired.

This time it's been hit when fully loaded with fuel-carrying train cars and the fire is intense.

Looks like it's gone for good this time.

 

 

[JFK-1]

3000 Russian troops cut off in Kursk face 'mass surrender' as Ukraine hits bridges | Chip Chapman

 

"There will be a purge in the Russian military because this is something which shouldn't have happened."

 

Without reinforcement, 3000 of Putin's troops face being enveloped "on the wrong side" of the River Seym in Kursk, Maj. Gen. Chip Chapman tells Frontline on #timesradio 
 

 

[Sawdust Caesar]

Before and after film of the ferry that was destroyed.

 

 

[Cade]

Ukraine has hit the Russian Marinovka airbase with a new type of drone.

Instead of being a single-warhead dive-bombing suicide drone, this new version is fitted with an air-burst tungsten cannister round, very much like the ATACMs tungsten round, just on a smaller scale.

This detonates just above the ground, showering a large area with tungsten ballbearings.

From the pictures that have been released of the effect on that airbase, it's a devastating weapon.

It's taken out multiple planes and the main fuel/ammo dump of the airbase, including destroying the wee corrugated iron hangars that were supposed to protect the planes.

 

[JFK-1]

Seems the worlds biggest oil depot is running low on refined petroleum products. Reportedly starting next month through December they're banning all exports of refined petroleum products. Was also mentioned Ukraine have been hitting refineries.

[Cade]

41 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

Seems the worlds biggest oil depot is running low on refined petroleum products. Reportedly starting next month through December they're banning all exports of refined petroleum products. Was also mentioned Ukraine have been hitting refineries.

They've had to do that already, sporadically over the last year or so.

They've been selling crude oil to the Chinese on the cheap then buying back the refined fuel for a premium.
The Chinese are loving it, getting paid a tidy profit for merely refining oil for the Russians.

[Lovecraft]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

They've had to do that already, sporadically over the last year or so.

They've been selling crude oil to the Chinese on the cheap then buying back the refined fuel for a premium.
The Chinese are loving it, getting paid a tidy profit for merely refining oil for the Russians.

India is doing the same.

 

Both India and China don't want the war to stop.

 

 

[Cade]

The big oil dump in Rostov is still burning, 6 days later. It's been drone dropped again as well.

The fire is so large that the 500 firefighters in attendance can do nothing other than preventing it spreading outside of the facility.

 

Government has sent round some priests with a picture of the Virgin Mary to hold a mass in the hope that God will put it out.

 

Here they are blessing the fire trucks

 

Blessed are the firemen

 

 

They're doing a grand job

 

 

[JFK-1]

Putin’s warlords and oligarchs threaten coup as Ruble craters | Diane Francis

 

"The ruble is cratering and there are some very prominent Russians who are now speaking out against this war very unusually."

 

 

 

[Jeff]

Rumours of a UA offensive to the south 

[JFK-1]

 

He lost his legs in the war - now he’s Ukraine’s most desirable man

 

When a shell exploded near Oleksandr Budko, the 26-year-old found himself buried alive and in "terrible pain" from injuries that would lead to the amputation of both his legs.

 

The Ukrainian soldier was helping to defend the north-eastern Kharkiv region from invading Russian forces in August 2022, when his unit was attacked.

Three years on, he’s the star of a reality TV show in which multiple women battle for his affection.

 

FULL ARTICLE https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clywj08d89no

[Dirty Deeds]

An awful lot of verified information in this article, has the war taken a decisive turn in Ukraine's favour?

 

https://www.twz.com/news-features/fuel-supplies-to-russian-troops-crimea-strangled-by-destruction-of-ship

[highlandjambo3]

9 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

Putin’s warlords and oligarchs threaten coup as Ruble craters | Diane Francis

 

"The ruble is cratering and there are some very prominent Russians who are now speaking out against this war very unusually."

 

 

 

Down to their last £50 million…..how will those poor soles survive.

[JFK-1]

11 minutes ago, highlandjambo3 said:

Down to their last £50 million…..how will those poor soles survive.

 

Just one interesting little point from that interview. The part about Ukraine leaking they had the opportunity to assassinate Putin at a big naval parade in a Russian city.

 

They called the pentagon to ask for permission because it was going to require American weaponry, and they refused to give the go ahead. I'm wondering why Ukraine would leak that.

 

Trying to intimidate Putin maybe? We will get you? 

And the point of all these oligarchs having their own private militias while one of them is openly calling for a coup. How can he be so bold? Thinks he can get away with that? We know what happened to Prigozhin when he said the same things.

 

It's getting sticky for Putin no doubt of that.

[Craig_]

50 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Just one interesting little point from that interview. The part about Ukraine leaking they had the opportunity to assassinate Putin at a big naval parade in a Russian city.

 

They called the pentagon to ask for permission because it was going to require American weaponry, and they refused to give the go ahead. I'm wondering why Ukraine would leak that.

 

Trying to intimidate Putin maybe? We will get you? 

And the point of all these oligarchs having their own private militias while one of them is openly calling for a coup. How can he be so bold? Thinks he can get away with that? We know what happened to Prigozhin when he said the same things.

 

It's getting sticky for Putin no doubt of that.

 

Not convinced the Americans want an end to this either. Think they'd be happier watching Russia slowly fall apart to the extent they could never be a power again. 

[Sawdust Caesar]

They must have been watching Predator.  He'll have felt like a goddamn sexual tyrannosaurus after downing that drone.

 

 

I don't imagine any Russian soldier will be delighted to carry out frontal assaults on a motorbike. 

 

 

 

 

[Cade]

Not just shitey wee trail bikes, but golf carts too.

This is what they're reduced to.

Their bonkers theory is that their armoured APC and IFVs are too slow and make easy targets.

Or they're too heavy and set off anti tank mines.

So it's much better to use golf carts and motorbikes  to cross muddy fields which are also strewn with anti personnel mines.

 

 

[OBE]

9 hours ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

They must have been watching Predator.  He'll have felt like a goddamn sexual tyrannosaurus after downing that drone.

 

 

I don't imagine any Russian soldier will be delighted to carry out frontal assaults on a motorbike. 

 

 

 

 

 

Electric blue and illuminous green bikes...should blend in well...🎯

[JFK-1]

 

People in Moscow about Ukraine's invasion

 

 

 

[Konrad von Carstein]

Auld Victor is quite the moderate, hasn't swallowed Putler's kool-aid at all.. 

[Jacques de Gatineau]

21 minutes ago, Konrad von Carstein said:

Auld Victor is quite the moderate, hasn't swallowed Putler's kool-aid at all.. 

Seems like Putin gets a lot of support from the older generation who have, through a kind of myopic nostalgia for communist times and the full employment, superpower status and queues for mouldy bread, welcomed the emergence of a 'strongman' leader. 

 

 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

5 hours ago, Ally said:

Seems like Putin gets a lot of support from the older generation who have, through a kind of myopic nostalgia for communist times and the full employment, superpower status and queues for mouldy bread, welcomed the emergence of a 'strongman' leader. 

 

 

 

The chaos that the West engendered with its massive sell-off of state assets to the people who rapidly became the new oligarchs didn't earn open markets and democracy many fans. The petro cash under Putin meant it was at least stable for a while. But he's gone and ****ed it all up.

[Mikey1874]

6 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

The chaos that the West engendered with its massive sell-off of state assets to the people who rapidly became the new oligarchs didn't earn open markets and democracy many fans. The petro cash under Putin meant it was at least stable for a while. But he's gone and ****ed it all up.

 

West assets?

 

It was Yeltsin that sold the assets then Putin reordered it. 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

3 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

West assets?

 

It was Yeltsin that sold the assets then Putin reordered it. 

The Yeltsin admin was heavily advised by American and British neoliberal economists who were convinced that if they just liquidated state assets into private ownership at bottom dollar, Extreme Freedom and Capitalism would just erupt and there'd be daisies everywhere or something. It created huge wealth for a small number of people and ruined the livelihoods of millions of Russians as he instituted an austerity program amid runaway inflation. Meanwhile Russian organized crime exploded and crime ran out of control.

 

Putin didn't re-nationalize anything, he just used the FSB to get the oligarchs and the crime bosses in line and to stop open warfare with each other, and instead started figuring out how to launder black and grey market stuff through countries with weak enough financial laws to allow it, like the UK and Germany.

Edited August 26, 2024 by Watt-Zeefuik

[Luckies1874]

On 24/08/2024 at 10:54, Craig_ said:

 

Not convinced the Americans want an end to this either. Think they'd be happier watching Russia slowly fall apart to the extent they could never be a power again. 

 

 

What gives you the impression Russia is falling apart? 

[Mikey1874]

3 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

The Yeltsin admin was heavily advised by American and British neoliberal economists who were convinced that if they just liquidated state assets into private ownership at bottom dollar, Extreme Freedom and Capitalism would just erupt and there'd be daisies everywhere or something. It created huge wealth for a small number of people and ruined the livelihoods of millions of Russians as he instituted an austerity program amid runaway inflation. Meanwhile Russian organized crime exploded and crime ran out of control.

 

Putin didn't re-nationalize anything, he just used the FSB to get the oligarchs and the crime bosses in line and to stop open warfare with each other, and instead started figuring out how to launder black and grey market stuff through countries with weak enough financial laws to allow it, like the UK and Germany.

 

Nope.

 

Your American guilt is just giving excuses. Russia did that all by itself. 

Edited August 27, 2024 by Mikey1874

[Watt-Zeefuik]

2 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Nope.

 

Your American guilt is just giving excuses. Russia did that all by itself. 

 

Oh, please. I was 14 at the time, I don't feel "guilt" about it.

 

Here, learn yerself some things. The IMF was there the whole time, advocating for Chicago School-style "shock therapy" for the economy. Jeffrey Sachs was on board for the most part but wanted the West to underwrite the process with foreign aid, but that got shot down by Washington.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/03/22/1087654279/how-shock-therapy-created-russian-oligarchs-and-paved-the-path-for-putin

 

While the US was leading the charge, the Thatcher and Major governments in the UK were avid cheerleaders, particularly as the City of London became a favorite spot for the oligarchs to stash their wealth.

 

Of course the oligarchs hijacked the process once they'd gotten a hold of the goods—an outcome that should have been blindingly obvious except for Randian ideas of enlightened self-interest.

 

In short, the ideas of the Western "reformers" and the implementation of shock therapy created the oligarchs, and the subsequent political chaos where no effort had been spent on public provision and civil society led to significant poverty, death, and suffering.

[Craig_]

10 hours ago, Luckies1874 said:

 

 

What gives you the impression Russia is falling apart? 

 

Their military is being slowly decimated, and not sure producing military hardware to prop up the economy is really a sustainable way to run a country long-term. Not to mention the losses of personnel.

[Luckies1874]

4 minutes ago, Craig_ said:

 

Their military is being slowly decimated, and not sure producing military hardware to prop up the economy is really a sustainable way to run a country long-term. Not to mention the losses of personnel.

 

 

Hmmm pretty debatable. The vast majority of Russians are completely oblivious to anything even going on and are going about their normal daily lives. I have a family member there, in one of the major cities just now, and it's barely even a topic of conversation most days. The vastness of the country means most are completely separated from the war and the population is such that the loss of personnel (horrific though it is) is barely a blip.

[Mac_fae_Gillie]

On 26/08/2024 at 07:35, OBE said:

 

Electric blue and illuminous green bikes...should blend in well...🎯

Send a sprog down to QMs for a tin of tartan paint so have them sorted.

[Mikey1874]

Kursk is still happening. Different reports but Ukraine still advancing. 

 

Latest Ukrainian report is Ukraine has captured 1,294 sq km and 100 settlements; Also 594 Russian servicemen were captured for exchange.

 

 

 

 

[Cade]

Inflation 9.1%
Interest rate 18%

 

Yes, the Russian economy is truly a wonder.

 

GDP is rising but that's because they're borrowing every penny they can in order to fund the war effort.
Wages in factories have shot up (hence the 9.1% inflation)
Most of the extra military spending is going on higher wages for the soldiers (all the cheap mercenaries and prisoners are dead now) or for compensation payments to families of the dead and seriously injured (1.5% of GDP goes to these compensation payments alone)

Russia is now a net importer of refined oil products. It's selling crude on the cheap to China and India, who then refine it and sell it back as fuel at huge profits.

Putin's had to sign presidential decrees controlling the economy almost every month.

Money (rubles) is not allowed to leave Russia. 

Many companies have been nationalised.

Assets of foreign companies have been illegally seized.

Trading of foreign currency is banned.

The stock market has been shut down on more than one occasion to prevent sell offs.

The Russian economy is burning up.

[Hagar the Horrible]

Interesting viewpoint on CNN from an analyst who  I suppose was trying to second guess what Putin is doing about the incursions into Russia

 

What I agree with is that Russia is slow to respond, and also why has he not used it to motivate his people "well muscovite's"  into being motivated, or indeed why has he waited and continues to wait to NOT use his super powers to call up his real army and kick Ukraine out?  But instead they are chucking tonnes of meat (people) into a small city that has no strategic value?

 

I think Putin knows if he does call up regulars and those who think the war is miles away, they would turn on him faster than a top floor window can open. It annoys me America is still calling the shots over how to use their weapons, but as always America has a history of putting their agenda first before the needs of their allies and always get it wrong.  I think America is woried that whats left of Russia as a federation will sub-divide from 1 nuclear power to about a dozen?  Putins red lines have been breached and breached again, so call his bluff and give them the weapons (the good stuff) to use when and where they want, even make a few Redlines of our own....like  if you launch drones or missiles from russia we will provide air support, including taking out weapons dumps in occupied Ukraine,  I think Russia would s%$t a brick

[Cade]

25 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Interesting viewpoint on CNN from an analyst who  I suppose was trying to second guess what Putin is doing about the incursions into Russia

 

What I agree with is that Russia is slow to respond, and also why has he not used it to motivate his people "well muscovite's"  into being motivated, or indeed why has he waited and continues to wait to NOT use his super powers to call up his real army and kick Ukraine out?  But instead they are chucking tonnes of meat (people) into a small city that has no strategic value?

 

I think Putin knows if he does call up regulars and those who think the war is miles away, they would turn on him faster than a top floor window can open. It annoys me America is still calling the shots over how to use their weapons, but as always America has a history of putting their agenda first before the needs of their allies and always get it wrong.  I think America is woried that whats left of Russia as a federation will sub-divide from 1 nuclear power to about a dozen?  Putins red lines have been breached and breached again, so call his bluff and give them the weapons (the good stuff) to use when and where they want, even make a few Redlines of our own....like  if you launch drones or missiles from russia we will provide air support, including taking out weapons dumps in occupied Ukraine,  I think Russia would s%$t a brick

 

Aye the Russian populace backing for the war is easy when it's foreign mercenaries and prisoners being fed into the meat grinder and all you see on TV is state propaganda.

If they start calling up white Russian boys from the big cities then you'll see support evaporate very quickly.

 

As for the Western weapons thing, Ukraine is working around that. They just started using a new type of drone kitted out with a jet engine and an airburst tungsten warhead that's been causing massive destruction to Russian airbases. It's just a (much) cheaper version of ATACMs, almost like a wee cruise missile.

Romania and Poland have had Russian missiles travel through their airspace to hit cities in Ukraine and NATO could and should perhaps put a red line on such airspace violations.
 

[Mikey1874]

You maybe don't get surprised so much these days. But this is impressive. Fair play. Russia changing the whole notion of crime.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg58mj7mzrdo