"British" Airways in trouble

[graygo]

1200 redundancies, not great. 

 

Not heard from my brother but he's a first officer with BA so must be cacking it.

 

"British" in inverted commas as it's not very British any more.

[mutley]

I’d heard it was 12,000, 30% of all staff

[Morgan]

Not good news.

[ri Alban]

Sell some assets. 

[graygo]

10 minutes ago, mutley said:

I’d heard it was 12,000, 30% of all staff

 

It is 12,000, missed a zero. 🙁

[graygo]

4 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Sell some assets. 

 

Owned by International Airlines Group who are majority owned by Qatar Airways who are owned by the Qatar Government, Qatar is ruled by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. He's worth around $2 billion, I'm sure he could chuck them a few quid.

[I P Knightley]

29 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Owned by International Airlines Group who are majority owned by Qatar Airways who are owned by the Qatar Government, Qatar is ruled by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. He's worth around $2 billion, I'm sure he could chuck them a few quid.

He'd have to cut down his outgoings on camel jockeys. 

[Cruyff]

It's a shame for the employees but under no circumstance should the Government bail out any private businesses. 

[ri Alban]

6 hours ago, graygo said:

 

Owned by International Airlines Group who are majority owned by Qatar Airways who are owned by the Qatar Government, Qatar is ruled by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. He's worth around $2 billion, I'm sure he could chuck them a few quid.

No arguments from me.

[GinRummy]

12000 jobs just like that 😟. Tragic. 

[frankblack]

I see zero point bailing out the airlines other than essential regional airlines.

 

International air travel and foreign holidays are going to be largely a thing of the past and an expensive luxury for those with deep pockets once this is over.

 

Good for the planet, not so good for tourism and travel businesses.

[GinRummy]

17 minutes ago, frankblack said:

I see zero point bailing out the airlines other than essential regional airlines.

 

International air travel and foreign holidays are going to be largely a thing of the past and an expensive luxury for those with deep pockets once this is over.

 

Good for the planet, not so good for tourism and travel businesses.

As much as I feel sorry for the BA employees, I agree with the above. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by GinRummy

[trotter]

1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:

The problem this is going to happen with lots of industries. 
 

I have said from the start that the economic consequences of this  would be more damaging to people than the actual virus. Austerity was allegedly responsible for circa 100K unnecessary death. Now I personally take that with a pinch of salt but the financial ‘bailouts’ for this are much greater than the financial crisis. This will need to be payed for. 
 

Now we do have some underlying benefits, there isn’t fundamentally wrong with the systems it’s just we’ve artificially created a recession. That in theory means we should bounce back quicker. That’s  true for many sectors some sectors won’t bounce back at all. 
 

It’s likely to accelerate the economic changes we were seeing in many areas such as death of high streets, Airlines, travel, hospitality are obviously some of the worst that will be impacted. .
 

Boris bucks are due to run out at end of June, this combined with lack of govt clarity around the next stage means buisiness have little opportunity to get the cash flow moving. It is usually cash flow that’s takes business down. 
 

BA I would suggest are airline that would be in trouble. In many ways it’s living off a past brand and the company has struggled to adapt or find their place in the market. They also need a fair bit of investment, I believe, in a aged/outdated fleet which obviously isn’t cheap and with their cash position . They were always a likely candidate for failure. I doubt they will be bailed out as the company has underlying issues and unlikely profitable in the future. 
 

Tragic for those who will loose their jobs. Unfortunately they are going to be many in that situation. 
 

 

BA has been living on past glories for years now. I remember back in the early-mid 90s, my uncle who was working for Motorola at the time telling me that BA business class, transatlantic was the absolute best thing in the world, by a country mile. 

 

I've travelled a fair few times both first and business in recent years and it is, to put it bluntly, shite. Don't get me wrong, the staff are brilliant, absolutely nothing to fault there, but you get the impression they are fighting with one hand tied behind their back. The planes (Dreamliner and A380 aside) are starting to show their age, the cabin quality isn't great and the overall service is beaten hands down by not just the various Middle Eastern airlines, but even other flag carriers like Turkish, ANA and Singapore who are orders of magnitude better.

 

If they need a bailout, by all means, but let them know that they will be nationalised again and sorted out once and for all. By all means run it for profit, but not simply for shareholder dividends being the be all and end all of the business. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by trotter

[The Real Maroonblood]

2 hours ago, GinRummy said:

12000 jobs just like that 😟. Tragic. 

I agree but also your post made me smile.

Just like that.

[Spellczech]

All the airlines are going to do this until the various Govts cannot ignore the calls any longer. Easyjet will be next.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

6 minutes ago, Spellczech said:

All the airlines are going to do this until the various Govts cannot ignore the calls any longer. Easyjet will be next.

 

Not so sure they will be as they secured around £1.9bn of extra funding just a few weeks ago and seemingly have enough cash to see out this year.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/easyjet-jumps-as-it-secures-1-9bn-extra-funding

Edited April 29, 2020 by Jambo-Jimbo

[Phage]

Richard Branson bugged me. A man who left the UK to live in a tax haven with his 2.2 billion. Of which his empire was started, flying import records into disused airports at night to avoid UK import tax.

Wants UK taxpayers to bail his airline out. Disgusting he is even asking the UK for anything.

 

BA its ashame for the jobs lost but like Virgin, the billionaire owners should be putting there money into it

[joondalupjambo]

In all honesty I personally will not be near any airline / flight until well into next year unless it was absolutely necessary.  I am sure I will not be alone. If numbers on the leisure side do plummet and perhaps business travel reduces as well then in that type of market only the fittest will survive.

British Airways have been on life support for a while now and could be about to go over the cliff.  

Does the Chancellor not have enough measures in place already to assist them? If not he will be having to be careful with this mob.   12000 jobs is too many to lose, if a truthful announcement, so he might have to consider some additional help if not enough currently.

Would it therefore not require an independent audit to confirm these high numbers though before committing extra?

Maybe all BA want is for the Chancellor to commit to extending the furlough period and this is a tactic.

 

 

 

[stirlo]

I think it would be no bad thing if air travel goes down significantly after this is all over - and I speak as someone who is probably guilty of using more flights than I should. The truth is so much air travel is not just unnecessary, it's something we basically do a lot of just because we can.

 

From an environmental perspective I would actually support an allowance scheme where we each get a relatively small allowance of air miles each year (say a couple of thousand) with taxes rising exponentially after that. It would probably be quite difficult to administer but I think that although the level of flying should go down generally, it's equally important it doesn't just become the preserve of the rich.

 

I think it's inevitable that there will be airline bail-outs - but if there are, these should come with a lot of strings attached. The thing that's always struck me about British Airways from a Scottish perspective is that their main focus has always been routing people via Heathrow and Gatwick. The likes of Easyjet and Ryanair come in for a lot of flack - but they have done much more for both Scottish air-travellers and the Scottish tourist industry than BA have ever done.   

[Cruyff]

The chancellor should furlough employees pay as long as possible but under no circumstances should any private company be bailed out. 

 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Warren Buffett has sold all his shares at a substantial loss in US Airlines, 11% Delta, 10% American, 10% Southwest, 9% United.

Obviously doesn't see much of a future in air travel.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52518186

 

 

[frankblack]

6 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Warren Buffett has sold all his shares at a substantial loss in US Airlines, 11% Delta, 10% American, 10% Southwest, 9% United.

Obviously doesn't see much of a future in air travel.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52518186

 

 

 

Writing is on the wall for international  air travel and cheap foreign holidays.

[Cruyff]

6 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Warren Buffett has sold all his shares at a substantial loss in US Airlines, 11% Delta, 10% American, 10% Southwest, 9% United.

Obviously doesn't see much of a future in air travel.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52518186

 

 

That's bad news if he's selling up. 

[SwindonJambo]

4 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

Writing is on the wall for international  air travel and cheap foreign holidays.

 

I agree. There will be some big changes to a lot of things and that’s very likely to be one of them. As we come out of this, Some industries will prosper and others will decline sharply. With enforced increased use of the likes of Zoom, Skype and Microsoft Teams I can see a big reduction in business travel too. Which is surely good news for the environment. I hate working from home but I can see people doIng more of that on a rotational basis.

 

On the downside, it will be a long time before people are willing to travel by coach, bus or train which will increase car use. Another industry which will take a huge clobbering is cruise shipping. 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

3 hours ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

I agree. There will be some big changes to a lot of things and that’s very likely to be one of them. As we come out of this, Some industries will prosper and others will decline sharply. With enforced increased use of the likes of Zoom, Skype and Microsoft Teams I can see a big reduction in business travel too. Which is surely good news for the environment. I hate working from home but I can see people doIng more of that on a rotational basis.

 

On the downside, it will be a long time before people are willing to travel by coach, bus or train which will increase car use. Another industry which will take a huge clobbering is cruise shipping. 

 

 

Yes I think it will take a huge hit, covid-19 has brought into sharp focus just how much of a petri dish cruise ships are, It'll take them a long long time to recover, in fact the whole travel & tourism industry will.

 

[Pans Jambo]

18 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

Writing is on the wall for international  air travel and cheap foreign holidays.

I dont disagree with that Frank but I do hope your wrong.

Leaving the EU may contribute to going abroad being slightly more difficult and if its expensive as well, folk might just not bother with it and just do a UK holiday instead (need a mortgage for that as well).

That said, what the betting  you wont be able to get a holiday for 'love nor money' when the lockdown ends. Folk will be queuing up to book a holiday after staing at home for 2 - 3 months (or however long this lasts).  

Strange times.

[Pans Jambo]

Is the big business model finished???

 

That is, get huge loans and inward investment via selling shares in your business, grow really fast and make huge profits. Then give yourself and your executives huge bonuses. Give your shareholders dividends and then buy back shares in your company whist paying huge interest payments on the big loans. When the stock price rises, sell said shares for profit and the whole thing starts again.

 

Trouble is, you don't have any cash reserves because you have spent it all or paid it out as dividends or bonus payments.

 

A lot of companies have now been caught with their pants down. Investors will likely get burnt and the government is bailing them out with our money.

 

If they had banked say 20% of post tax profits as a cash reserve for the last 10 years, would they be in the same situation???

 

Some of these businesses make £Billions of profit annually. Seems ridiculous that they are now skint and have their hands out for public money as a bail-out.

 

Also, bail-outs should only go to UK registered companies who pay their taxes in the UK (not the Caymen Islands etc).

Edited May 4, 2020 by Pans Jambo

[frankblack]

28 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

I dont disagree with that Frank but I do hope your wrong.

Leaving the EU may contribute to going abroad being slightly more difficult and if its expensive as well, folk might just not bother with it and just do a UK holiday instead (need a mortgage for that as well).

That said, what the betting  you wont be able to get a holiday for 'love nor money' when the lockdown ends. Folk will be queuing up to book a holiday after staing at home for 2 - 3 months (or however long this lasts).  

Strange times.

 

I think that when you factor in the need for a global vaccination programme to get back to any sort of normality it means that foreign holidays are going to take a massive hit for up to two years.

 

After that you have to see which airlines have survived and what premium prices will be getting charged for reduced flight availability.

 

That is without taking into account leaving the EU, which god knows what is going to happen with that this year despite statements from the Torys.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

2 hours ago, Pans Jambo said:

I dont disagree with that Frank but I do hope your wrong.

Leaving the EU may contribute to going abroad being slightly more difficult and if its expensive as well, folk might just not bother with it and just do a UK holiday instead (need a mortgage for that as well).

That said, what the betting  you wont be able to get a holiday for 'love nor money' when the lockdown ends. Folk will be queuing up to book a holiday after staing at home for 2 - 3 months (or however long this lasts).  

Strange times.

 

Not so sure of that tbh, sure you'll get some folks rushing away abroad, but I think the majority of folks will just sit back and watch what transpires in terms of the restrictions imposed by other countries.

The whole experience will change and the big question will be, is it worth it anymore, is it worth the hassle, without a vaccine or an effective treatment I think travelling abroad for many people is a thing of the past, including myself, and we used to have 2 or 3 trips abroad every year, that's all gone now, until a vaccine or treatment.

 

It's all going to come down to having the confidence in going abroad and how the overall experience is going to be like.

[dobmisterdobster]

• Folk will be queuing up in the unemployment line not the airport.
• Holidays will be far more expensive then they were previously.
• Businesses will realise Zoom is cheaper than first class airline tickets for their employees. Its not the 1980s anymore.
• Airlines are already broke with razor thin profit margins, high costs, fuel prices, staff unions, massive debts.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

I've not heard this mentioned anywhere and is purely my own thoughts.

 

I think Covid-19 is the final nail in the coffin of the Boeing 737MAX, which has been grounded for over a year now and Boeing had hoped to get it flying again this year, however I can't see airlines investing in new planes anytime soon.

 

There are supposedly around about 800 airlines in the world and it's thought that as much as up to half of them could fold in the next 2 or 3 months, if that happened there are going to be a glut of surplus airplanes, many of which are going to be going cheap, meaning the need to buy new planes is diminished.

 

Ryanair has ordered 210 & BA 200 of the 737MAX, after all of this, can either airline afford them now.

[wentworth jambo]

For a few years now, the BA model hasn't made any sense. You have the Middle Eastern (and other airlines) who claim to offer a premium service / a bit more luxury for a bit more money and this appeals to certain people. You then have the low cost carriers (Easyjet, Ryanair, etc) who do exactly as it says on the tin - get you from A to B, safely but with as little frill as possible. You can have some frills if you want but you pay extra for these - this model also works and appeals to certain travellers.

BA have started to fall between the 2 - still positioning themselves as a more luxurious brand than the low cost carriers but effectively offering the same service as low cost carriers. A good example - up until a few years ago I spent a fair bit of time commuting  weekly London - Edinburgh - London. Carrier of choice originally was BA - nice hot breakfast in the morning, couple of beers in the lounge before going home, airmiles were a good deal as well in terms of free flights etc. Ending up switching to Easyjet because 1. saved a fortune (ave price was around £30 a flight versus £100 for BA, 2. BA changed Executive Club rules meaning airmiles / points harder to earn so free flights were harder to come by as was reaching Silver level for lounge access etc and 3. and prob most importantly - their actual service became exactly the same as any low cost carrier - any food / drink on board had to be purchased (unless you're willing to pay over the odds for Business / 1st class).

Not surprised they're struggling now but I'll think they'll struggle even more after lockdown and they look to operate a full schedule.

[Norm]

I feel a bit sorry for the missus. She went back to Germany 3 or 4 times a year to see her folks and family. If we're looking at 3 figures for a one way journey and days in quarantine, that's just not going to happen. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Normthebarman

[Joey J J Jr Shabadoo]

11 minutes ago, Normthebarman said:

I feel a bit sorry for the missus. She went back to Germany 3 or 4 times a year to see her folks and family. If we're looking at 3 figures for a one way journey and days in quarantine, that's just not going to happen. 

My sister-in-law (live in Edinburgh) is from near Dresden and used to take my nephews (6 & 9) over to see the German grandparents, regularly. No idea what they'll do in future? Video calls aren't quite the same.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Joey J J Jr Shabadoo

[Norm]

12 minutes ago, Joey J J Jr Shabadoo said:

My sister-in-law (live in Edinburgh) is from near Dresden and used to take my nephews (6 & 9) over to see the German grandparents, regularly. No idea what they'll do in future? Video calls aren't quite the same.

The wife and kids were supposed to be over at Easter. That didn't happen so they rebooked for Christmas. It's beginning to look like that might not happen either if there's a quarantine period. 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, wentworth jambo said:

For a few years now, the BA model hasn't made any sense. You have the Middle Eastern (and other airlines) who claim to offer a premium service / a bit more luxury for a bit more money and this appeals to certain people. You then have the low cost carriers (Easyjet, Ryanair, etc) who do exactly as it says on the tin - get you from A to B, safely but with as little frill as possible. You can have some frills if you want but you pay extra for these - this model also works and appeals to certain travellers.

BA have started to fall between the 2 - still positioning themselves as a more luxurious brand than the low cost carriers but effectively offering the same service as low cost carriers. A good example - up until a few years ago I spent a fair bit of time commuting  weekly London - Edinburgh - London. Carrier of choice originally was BA - nice hot breakfast in the morning, couple of beers in the lounge before going home, airmiles were a good deal as well in terms of free flights etc. Ending up switching to Easyjet because 1. saved a fortune (ave price was around £30 a flight versus £100 for BA, 2. BA changed Executive Club rules meaning airmiles / points harder to earn so free flights were harder to come by as was reaching Silver level for lounge access etc and 3. and prob most importantly - their actual service became exactly the same as any low cost carrier - any food / drink on board had to be purchased (unless you're willing to pay over the odds for Business / 1st class).

Not surprised they're struggling now but I'll think they'll struggle even more after lockdown and they look to operate a full schedule.

 

You are right about BA, it doesn't actually know where it wants to be or indeed fits in or belongs nowadays, it's stuck between high end & low cost and isn't either of them.

 

I've flown from the UK to Rome with BA, Jet2 & Easyjet and to be honest there wasn't that much between them, if anything, so yes BA offered pretty much the same level of service as Easyjet & Jet2 but was more expensive

[Ehllhayapeh]

On 28/04/2020 at 16:27, graygo said:

1200 redundancies, not great. 

 

Not heard from my brother but he's a first officer with BA so must be cacking it.

 

"British" in inverted commas as it's not very British any more.

Long time since it was the "Worlds favorite airline" seems to have gone downhill in recent years.

 

I usually fly sky team from Mexico and one time had to go BA instead and honestly give me Aero Mexico or KLM any day over that shambles.

 

Sad obviously for the folk being made redundant. However, BA has been mismanaged for a long time.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Ehllhayapeh

[Cruyff]

Air travel is over. Big companies won't survive this. Fair enough, the Developed World might beat this pandemic but 3rd World Countries will not. So there will be no option but to ban or restrict unnecessary overseas travel for a long long time to come, perhaps years. 

[Unknown user]

Just now, Cruyff said:

Air travel is over. Big companies won't survive this. Fair enough, the Developed World might beat this pandemic but 3rd World Countries will not. So there will be no option but to ban or restrict unnecessary overseas travel for a long long time to come, perhaps years. 

You're way off IMHO, things will just change. All the planes and airports and the desire to travel will still be there, and there will still be people who want to make money. Yes we face recession and tough times, yes there'll be a resettling and different companies will take the place of the ones we know, but holidays and travel aren't going away, western civilisation demands it.

[Cruyff]

11 minutes ago, Smithee said:

You're way off IMHO, things will just change. All the planes and airports and the desire to travel will still be there, and there will still be people who want to make money. Yes we face recession and tough times, yes there'll be a resettling and different companies will take the place of the ones we know, but holidays and travel aren't going away, western civilisation demands it.

I think it'll be essential business travel only for the forseeable and you'll need to be tested or vaccinated. 

 

If this spreads through Africa, South America, India etc.. How can you stop them travelling about, or people going on holidays and infecting populations abroad or at home? The population of the 3rd and developing nations outnumbers the Developed world by 3 or 4 to 1. 

 

They have to eradicate this virus first before normal service can resume, otherwise there will be outbreak after outbreak in the future. 

[Unknown user]

12 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

I think it'll be essential business travel only for the forseeable and you'll need to be tested or vaccinated. 

 

If this spreads through Africa, South America, India etc.. How can you stop them travelling about, or people going on holidays and infecting populations abroad or at home? The population of the 3rd and developing nations outnumbers the Developed world by 3 or 4 to 1. 

 

They have to eradicate this virus first before normal service can resume, otherwise there will be outbreak after outbreak in the future. 

 

I get what you're saying but millions want to travel and the rich want to take their money. Market forces will win.

Theres a mighty big grey area between zero air travel and normal service being resumed and that's where things will settle in the medium term.

[frankblack]

4 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

I get what you're saying but millions want to travel and the rich want to take their money. Market forces will win.

Theres a mighty big grey area between zero air travel and normal service being resumed and that's where things will settle in the medium term.

 

I'd question how many would want to travel if quarantine is enforced at both ends, which is the likely outcome when lockdown is relaxed and a vaccine isn't available.

 

I see services being very limited to make them cost effective but how does that work with social distancing and the need to break even?  My guess is far higher fares to make up for fewer customers per flight.

[Unknown user]

30 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

I'd question how many would want to travel if quarantine is enforced at both ends, which is the likely outcome when lockdown is relaxed and a vaccine isn't available.

 

I see services being very limited to make them cost effective but how does that work with social distancing and the need to break even?  My guess is far higher fares to make up for fewer customers per flight.

 

I think you're probably right, but I wouldn't like to speculate too far on details, you never know how these things will go. The only thing I'm sure of is there's a shit ton of airports, planes, people who need a break, and other people who want to make money, and that means they'll find a way.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Smithee

[north wales jambo]

 I work for airbus in North Wales, worrying times for the aerospace industries.. Our plant has already let 500 contractors go and 3200 core workers are being furloughed for a minimum of 3 weeks maybe longer. Already had over 3 weeks off with holiday leave being made to take. Rates for each aircraft variant have fallen by a 1/3rd already at least. Worrying times for us. 

[weegranty]

Received an email from British Airways today to inform me that my flight has been cancelled from London to Las Vegas on June 30th,my connecting flight from Edinburgh to London has not though. I will be phoning them to ask for a refund though,don't want a voucher.

[stirlo]

I think some of the predictions of the demise of the airline industry are quite overblown. The level of air travel may not return to what it was immediately before this crisis - or at least not for quite a long time - but people are too used to flying and so many countries are too reliant on the tourism industry for the airline industry to go back to what it was 30 years ago.

 

I expect the biggest effect will be on business travel. So much of that is completely unnecessary and this situation will have opened the eyes of many companies to that. 

[dobmisterdobster]

56 minutes ago, stirlo said:

I think some of the predictions of the demise of the airline industry are quite overblown. The level of air travel may not return to what it was immediately before this crisis - or at least not for quite a long time - but people are too used to flying and so many countries are too reliant on the tourism industry for the airline industry to go back to what it was 30 years ago.

 

I expect the biggest effect will be on business travel. So much of that is completely unnecessary and this situation will have opened the eyes of many companies to that. 

 

Business travelers with their first class seats and frequent flyer schemes make up the vast majority of an airline's revenue.

 

An unsustainable business model in a changing world.

[stirlo]

1 hour ago, dobmisterdobster said:

 

Business travelers with their first class seats and frequent flyer schemes make up the vast majority of an airline's revenue.

 

An unsustainable business model in a changing world.

 

They do for the big flag-carriers and so business class fares effectively subsidise economy seats for them. But for the lower-cost carriers and holiday/charter companies they don't really do business class.

 

No question, the airline industry will need to adapt a great deal to come out the other end of this crisis - but I don't think total air travel will decline quite as much as some people expect in the medium to long term. 

[SwindonJambo]

5 hours ago, Smithee said:

 

I think you're probably right, but I wouldn't like to speculate too far on details, you never know how these things will go. The only thing I'm sure of is there's a shit ton of airports, planes, people who need a break, and other people who want to make money, and that means they'll find a way.

 

You are certainly right thar there will be pressure for that to happen, but I can’t see how it will without a tried and tested reliable and readily available  vaccine in place which will be in the second half of next year at best. It is the easy availability of cheap international flights that has enabled this deadly virus to quickly spread across borders in the first place. 

 

Even then, it is likely that many people will be reticent about international travel even once a vaccine is in place. As others have said, the enforced and successful use  of Zoom, Skype and Microsoft Teams to conduct both domestic and international business will likely have a big impact on international business travel, which gives airlines a huge chunk of their income.

 

One welcome benefit will be the reduced environmental damage. Since the lockdown in Italy, the canals of Venice are much clearer and fish can be seen swimming around in them. Much cleaner air above Cities all over the World too. 

[Unknown user]

13 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

You are certainly right thar there will be pressure for that to happen, but I can’t see how it will without a tried and tested reliable and readily available  vaccine in place which will be in the second half of next year at best. It is the easy availability of cheap international flights that has enabled this deadly virus to quickly spread across borders in the first place. 

 

Even then, it is likely that many people will be reticent about international travel even once a vaccine is in place. As others have said, the enforced and successful use  of Zoom, Skype and Microsoft Teams to conduct both domestic and international business will likely have a big impact on international business travel, which gives airlines a huge chunk of their income.

 

One welcome benefit will be the reduced environmental damage. Since the lockdown in Italy, the canals of Venice are much clearer and fish can be seen swimming around in them. Much cleaner air above Cities all over the World too. 

Market forces will win, they always do. How, I don't know, but they will. There's money to be made.