What Clubs are in danger of Admin/liquidation?

[hughesie27]

If Hibs were in any immediate danger then they wouldn't have agreed to defer wages. They'd have cut them like us.

 

That's not too say they won't if football isn't back by October. 

[Pasquale for King]

1 hour ago, 1874robbo said:

I would say killie, were they not always bailed out by their hotel?

if that’s still the case obviously there’s no money coming in on that side of things for them either.

I’ve never quite understood who uses that hotel in that hellhole 🤷🏾‍♂️🤔?

[Pasquale for King]

20 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

If Hibs were in any immediate danger then they wouldn't have agreed to defer wages. They'd have cut them like us.

 

That's not too say they won't if football isn't back by October. 

Might be before that, is desperate Dumpster not independently looking into how football can be played behind closed doors ASAP?

[Beast Boy]

32 minutes ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

Should I have , aye? 

Yes.

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

27 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

If Hibs were in any immediate danger then they wouldn't have agreed to defer wages. They'd have cut them like us.

 

That's not too say they won't if football isn't back by October. 

Or they badly misjudged the situation 

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

2 hours ago, ToqueJambo said:

Anyone already in a bit of a tight financial situation, with debt, larger expenses, etc. Plus anyone who sticks their fingers in their ears and tries to keep paying their squad because they believe we'll have football in 2020. Bonus points for clubs with foreign owners who might need to get rid.

 

So in the Premiership that would be D Utd, Rangers, Killie, Hibs, and St J (in that order of precariousness for me). In the Championship, Dundee and Caley.

 

The smaller clubs ironically should be OK as they can take advantage of the gov scheme and just shut up shop. We should be OK as we have FoH and have the excuse of relegation to cut our cloth and release most players. 

 

When Celtic with their millions in the bank are talking about cuts, it's clearly club could be affected, but it will be the ones with the largest wage bills and debts etc who will be most at danger - unless they do what Budge did and accept the seriousness of the situation early and act accordingly. She looks like the Sth Korea or New Zealand of Scottish football right now. Hibs, Aberdeen, etc are the Sweden and UK.

Government won't pay indefinitely. 

 

There will be a point in this crisis,  where we will be abandoned and cut adrift. 

 

This wave of apparent generosity is business,  at some juncture it will become bad business 

[Benny Factor]

30 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

If Hibs were in any immediate danger then they wouldn't have agreed to defer wages. They'd have cut them like us.

 

That's not too say they won't if football isn't back by October. 

Any club who chooses to defer wages just now rather than cut them has some seriously misplaced optimism on when football will start up again. 

[Bazzas right boot]

7 minutes ago, Special Officer Doofy said:

Yes.

 

You sure? 

[Beast Boy]

23 minutes ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

You sure? 

Quite sure. 

[wavydavy]

1 hour ago, baxterd1974 said:

Statement today, accept between 10 and 30% cut or contract suspended.

 

I looked earlier but never saw her statement. It will be interesting to see what the players response is.

 

Having paid the players’ wages in full for March, I have written to them today to request the formal notification of their acceptance of the temporary wage cut proposed in order that we can process salaries next week. I remain hopeful that the players will accept for the reasons outlined above, as the only viable alternative is that their contracts remain suspended under Clause 12 of the standard SPFL contract which means that they will not receive any wages during the period of suspension.

[SomethingAboutObua]

Everyone apart from Celtic I would suppose. I think after us, Rangers, Dunfermline, Livi, Gretna and Dundee all of our teams are more stringent with their finances now. 

 

I don't think there will be any teams that would outright disappear now, which is what I'm picturing liquidation as. 

 

1. The SPFL/SFA(?) still don't properly acknowledge whether Rangers are a new club or the same side, so if say Albion Rovers went to the wall and wanted to come back as Albion Rovers, I don't think there would be any protest. I think Gretna 08 are our last "phoenix club".

2. I also think with the SPFL wanting to bring in all these junior teams and creating a bigger pyramid, there's more scope that teams would be able to re-enter more easily should they go into admin, the only question is would they enter at the bottom of the new tiers, or into League 2? If Brora and Kelty are being given promotion, to me, that sets the precedent that you need to complete the whole pyramid to join the top tiers, not hop in into League 2. 

[Guest ToqueJambo]

1 hour ago, hughesie27 said:

If Hibs were in any immediate danger then they wouldn't have agreed to defer wages. They'd have cut them like us.

 

That's not too say they won't if football isn't back by October. 

 

I don't think anyone is in real immediate danger. The longer this goes on though... With Hibs (and D.Utd and Dundee), having an American owner creates a lot of uncertainty. The US, along with the UK, is going to come out of this especially badly. 

[Guest ToqueJambo]

40 minutes ago, Sir Gio said:

Government won't pay indefinitely. 

 

There will be a point in this crisis,  where we will be abandoned and cut adrift. 

 

This wave of apparent generosity is business,  at some juncture it will become bad business 

 

We have timescales to give us a decent idea of how long this might go on for in its present form. Some countries that have handled things better are getting back to a bit more normality already - schools in Norway, and Denmark, etc. Unfortunately the UK has handled it incredibly badly, so you might be right. In that scenario clubs will need to turn to their fans (again).

[Bazzas right boot]

18 minutes ago, Special Officer Doofy said:

Quite sure. 

 

Not 100% tho? 

[hughesie27]

55 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

Might be before that, is desperate Dumpster not independently looking into how football can be played behind closed doors ASAP?

Maybe but thats not going to bring in any extra money.

[Pasquale for King]

16 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Maybe but thats not going to bring in any extra money.

Yeah they’re just doing it for shits n giggles. 
If games go ahead behind closed doors then tv money and sponsorship will be paid into the coffers and help pay the players, more strip sales etc.

Its getting fans back in stadiums she’s concentrating on.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Pasquale for King

[Beast Boy]

17 minutes ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

Not 100% tho? 

At least.

[GinRummy]

24 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

 

I don't think anyone is in real immediate danger. The longer this goes on though... With Hibs (and D.Utd and Dundee), having an American owner creates a lot of uncertainty. The US, along with the UK, is going to come out of this especially badly. 

The American connection isn’t something I had thought of but tbf I think Ron Gordon’s business interest lie outwith the US. You’re right though when other business interest go tits up it could spell serious bad news for some clubs. Look at Vlad.

[East Lothian Jambo]

3 hours ago, OTT said:

I suppose your guess could be who is most reliant on OF gates to subsidise their spending 

 

St Johnstone and Killie would be my top guesses. Suspect Hamilton and Midden too. 

 

 

St Johnstone had cash in the bank at last Annual Accounts of £2M+ 

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

59 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

 

We have timescales to give us a decent idea of how long this might go on for in its present form. Some countries that have handled things better are getting back to a bit more normality already - schools in Norway, and Denmark, etc. Unfortunately the UK has handled it incredibly badly, so you might be right. In that scenario clubs will need to turn to their fans (again).

You can trust a Tory as much as an SPFL board member 

[Bazzas right boot]

1 hour ago, Special Officer Doofy said:

At least.

 

 

You can't be quite sure and 100% sure. 

 

 

[The Merse]

It’s the same people that were saying that we wouldn’t be relegated without another ball being kicked that are saying clubs will go bust.

 

Clutching at straws.

 

If things get tight, clubs will use article 12 to see them through.

 

 

[Guest ToqueJambo]

28 minutes ago, The Merse said:

It’s the same people that were saying that we wouldn’t be relegated without another ball being kicked that are saying clubs will go bust.

 

Clutching at straws.

 

If things get tight, clubs will use article 12 to see them through.

 

 

 

It's the ones that don't face reality or that leave it too late to make cuts who will be in trouble. That's why Rangers have to be close to the top of the endangered list.  Any club that responds to liquidation by immediately paying players 7 grand/week to win the Scottish 3rd division instead of attempting to be sustainable even just for a while is completely detached from reality.

[martoon]

7 hours ago, Paul Shark said:

Interested to know in what way do ICT "serve" Inverness ? In my experience they do nothing for Inverness or the Highlands unless it is financially beneficial to them.

 

Inverness Thistle fan? 😂

Edited April 25, 2020 by martoon

[hmfc1440]

15 hours ago, jambopilms said:

Has any club anywhere gone under yet ?

I'm thinking mass administration is still unlikely 

Believe 2nd tier Belgian club Lokeren filing for bankruptcy while Lommel, Virton and Roeselare are hanging by a thread. Given Belgian 2nd tier has only 8 teams that is effectively 50% of the entire league.

Each of the above are frantically seeking a saviour.

https://www.football-addict.com/en/article/home/belgian-club-sporting-lokeren-declare-bankruptcy/5e9d87e8ac436a43017714cf

[GinRummy]

12 hours ago, The Merse said:

It’s the same people that were saying that we wouldn’t be relegated without another ball being kicked that are saying clubs will go bust.

 

Clutching at straws.

 

If things get tight, clubs will use article 12 to see them through.

 

 

Clubs will go bust. Clubs like St Johnstone were in bother before this started as were Rangers. Look at the list of creditors we had when we went into admin, it wasn’t just players wages. How can a club who were struggling to pay their bills survive for 6 months with zero income. 
 

There’s no straw clutching just maybe a bit too much emphasis on players wages, which as you said article 12 could sort out. 

[David McCaig]

14 hours ago, Sir Gio said:

Or they badly misjudged the situation 

I’ve just asked on another thread, but does agreeing a wage deferral negate a clubs ability to invoke clause at a later date?

 

If it does then Aberdeen and Hibs really have screwed themselves over... and all for the sake of PR!!

[David McCaig]

13 hours ago, GinRummy said:

The American connection isn’t something I had thought of but tbf I think Ron Gordon’s business interest lie outwith the US. You’re right though when other business interest go tits up it could spell serious bad news for some clubs. Look at Vlad.

Which is why its a good thing that we have both FoH and that Ann Budge is effectively retired and cashed out ie. not dependent on funding from an ongoing business.

 

We may be getting screwed over by the SPFL in the short term, but our long term future is probably as healthy as any club in Scotland.

 

Hopefully we come out of this stronger and a hell of a lot angrier... no more Mr Nice Hearts!!

[soonbe110]

20 hours ago, Gambo said:

What clubs do we think are teetering on the edge of Admin/Liquidation the longer this goes on?

 

Who is in most danger (all 4 leagues)?

 

I keep hearing clubs will go bust, so who are the likely candidates?

 

All, except Celtic. 

[highlandjambo3]

17 hours ago, adambraejambo said:

Administration is ok if you got someone who wants to buy you and clear the football debt. Just now anyone willing to buy a Scottish club needs sectioned. No start date. No income. I'd say half the clubs that go into admin will be liquidated.  

On the flip side if that..........what about someone coming in with an offer (bargain basement) to buy a club on the cheap, particularly if said club is about to go to the wall, mothball the club with a view to kicking off again when football resumes.  What would you decide, let your club go bust or sell on the cheap knowing it will survive.

 

One door closes and another opens.  I’m looking to buy an almost new car and it’s possibly wise to hang on for the next few months as prices will fall be it trade or private.

[David McCaig]

Just now, soonbe110 said:

All, except Celtic. 

I don’t think Hearts are in any danger at all.

 

No external debt

Additional funding model via FoH already in place.

Rich owner with money in bank and not in danger of seeing their own business go under.

Mysterious benefactor

 

[David McCaig]

1 minute ago, highlandjambo3 said:

On the flip side if that..........what about someone coming in with an offer (bargain basement) to buy a club on the cheap, particularly if said club is about to go to the wall, mothball the club with a view to kicking off again when football resumes.  What would you decide, let your club go bust or sell on the cheap knowing it will survive.

 

One door closes and another opens.  I’m looking to buy an almost new car and it’s possibly wise to hang on for the next few months as prices will fall be it trade or private.

Alternatively, you are an American Spiv and own a club that you have no emotional attachment to.

 

Do you underwrite huge losses, or cash in your chips and make a fortune building flats?

[Ex member of the SaS]

ALL teams are in the same boat to a greater or lesser degree. Celtic has big wages and overheads while Smaller clubs don't have the same reserves but has less overheads/wages to cover. It's all relevant. As for Hibs, they put out the deferred statement long before it was clear this is a long term problem, and I would think their owner will be regretting their stance. I can see them taking a step backward sooner rather than later, and may well have to take the egg on the face when they announce cuts. Will they make cuts elsewhere first? Hard to say but it will look really bad if the sack people while still honouring deferal.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Ex member of the SaS

[Jammy T]

The immediate risks for well supported clubs should be relatively low with season tickets going on sale 

 

For clubs that rely on filling 3/4s of their stadium a few times a season with smellies, and to a lesser extent fans with large away numbers such as us, to meet ends meet and league prize money it’s a different story

 

For clubs that have debt it is different also with directors of any company who might not be able to meet their debts have a fiduciary duty to do something about it.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Jammy T

[highlandjambo3]

6 minutes ago, David McCaig said:

Alternatively, you are an American Spiv and own a club that you have no emotional attachment to.

 

Do you underwrite huge losses, or cash in your chips and make a fortune building flats?

And, to cut costs even more, you could also drive the demolition vehicle and smash the place up yourself 👍

[David McCaig]

4 minutes ago, Ex member of the SaS said:

ALL teams are in the same boat to a greater or lesser degree. Celtic has big wages and overheads while Smaller clubs don't have the same reserves but has less overheads/wages to cover. It's all relevant. As for Hibs, they put out the deferred statement long before it was clear this is a long term problem, and I would think their owner will be regretting their stance. I can see them taking a step backward sooner rather than later, and may well have to take the egg on the face when they announce cuts. Will they make cuts elsewhere first? Hard to say but it will look really bad if the sack people while still honouring deferal.

My point is can Hibs take a step back.

 

Does the agreement to defer wages supersede and replace clause 12 of the players contracts?  If it does they are really screwed.

[David McCaig]

Just now, highlandjambo3 said:

And, to cut costs even more, you could also drive the demolition vehicle and smash the place up yourself 👍

Surely you auction out that honour to the highest bidder... lol

[highlandjambo3]

1 minute ago, David McCaig said:

Surely you auction out that honour to the highest bidder... lol

Of course 

[David McCaig]

2 minutes ago, Jammy T said:

The immediate risks for well supported clubs should be relatively low with season tickets going on sale 

 

For clubs that rely on filling 3/4s of their stadium a few times a season with smellies, and to a lesser extent fans with large away numbers such as us, to meet ends meet and league prize money it’s a different story

 

For clubs that have debt it is different also with directors of any company who might not be able to meet their debts have a fiduciary duty to do something about it.

Will Season Tickets purchased via Credit Card or Finance actually transfer funds to clubs at this moment in time.

 

My understanding with Credit Cards is that they release ST funds on a 1/19th basis after each game due to the inherent insurance that comes with a credit card purchase.

[Ex member of the SaS]

3 minutes ago, David McCaig said:

My point is can Hibs take a step back.

 

Does the agreement to defer wages supersede and replace clause 12 of the players contracts?  If it does they are really screwed.

Good point, well made.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Ex member of the SaS

[Last Laff]

8 minutes ago, David McCaig said:

My point is can Hibs take a step back.

 

Does the agreement to defer wages supersede and replace clause 12 of the players contracts?  If it does they are really screwed.

Why would it replace a clause in the players contract?  I’m not sure why they would be screwed regardless? 

[David McCaig]

1 minute ago, Last Laff said:

Why would it replace a clause in the players contract?  I’m not sure why they would be screwed regardless? 

If there is no football in front of paying customers until next year and Hibs are committed to effectively paying their players in full at a time when income is being lost, they are creating a huge future debt for themselves.

[Bazzas right boot]

4 minutes ago, Jammy T said:

The immediate risks for well supported clubs should be relatively low with season tickets going on sale 

 

For clubs that rely on filling 3/4s of their stadium a few times a season with smellies, and to a lesser extent fans with large away numbers such as us, to meet ends meet and league prize money it’s a different story

 

For clubs that have debt it is different also with directors of any company who might not be able to meet their debts have a fiduciary duty to do something about it.

 

 

I think the opposite, gate receipts for clubs like livi, Hamilton will be a far smaller % of revenue compared to club like ourselves and rangers. 

They will take a hit, ofc but these clubs will be relying on prize money and TV money to make up the bigger %. 

 

Celtic, rangers, us, hibs and Aberdeen are clubs that Likley have a very high % of income from gate receipts/ game day and now that money has gone. 

 

It's all relative, but Hamilton missing 1k fans on average will have less an effect than us missing 16k.

Rangers Likley in a very bad way, no cash reserves, no match day income. 

 

I know Scottish football has a high dependency on match day income but the OF will massively mis represent that overall figure, be interesting to see each clubs revenue breakdown as a % and the dependency on match day. 

 

Imo, rangers, us, hibs and Aberdeen will feel the shock of no match day revenue more. 

 

 

 

The bottom 6 this year would not be playing the OF this season again, and all but maybe us would have budgeted for that. 

 

 

[Bazzas right boot]

1 minute ago, David McCaig said:

If there is no football in front of paying customers until next year and Hibs are committed to effectively paying their players in full at a time when income is being lost, they are creating a huge future debt for themselves.

 

They can change that tho. 

 

[Jammy T]

9 minutes ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

I think the opposite, gate receipts for clubs like livi, Hamilton will be a far smaller % of revenue compared to club like ourselves and rangers. 

They will take a hit, ofc but these clubs will be relying on prize money and TV money to make up the bigger %. 

 

Celtic, rangers, us, hibs and Aberdeen are clubs that Likley have a very high % of income from gate receipts/ game day and now that money has gone. 

 

It's all relative, but Hamilton missing 1k fans on average will have less an effect than us missing 16k.

Rangers Likley in a very bad way, no cash reserves, no match day income. 

 

I know Scottish football has a high dependency on match day income but the OF will massively mis represent that overall figure, be interesting to see each clubs revenue breakdown as a % and the dependency on match day. 

 

Imo, rangers, us, hibs and Aberdeen will feel the shock of no match day revenue more. 

 

 

 

The bottom 6 this year would not be playing the OF this season again, and all but maybe us would have budgeted for that. 

 

 

But if we sell even say 10,000 season tickets that is the equivalent of up front match day revenue. Capped and less than normal but still around £3m

 

Plus are running costs for players is going to decrease no matter what within the next week or so.

 

I might be missing something

[David McCaig]

9 minutes ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

They can change that tho. 

 

That’s the question, can they change it if the wage deferral is the agreed solution as opposed to invoking clause 12?

[David McCaig]

Hamilton will probably be fine given that pretty much their whole playing squad is out of contract in 5 weeks time.

[¼½¾]

 

15 minutes ago, highlandjambo3 said:

And, to cut costs even more, you could also drive the demolition vehicle and smash the place up yourself 👍

...or maybe there would be people who would be willing to pay to smash the place up? 

[David McCaig]

1 minute ago, Lemongrab said:

 

...or maybe there would be people who would be willing to pay to smash the place up? 

How many Hearts fans with hammers can you fit into Easter Road, whilst maintaining 2m physical distancing?

[¼½¾]

1 minute ago, David McCaig said:

How many Hearts fans with hammers can you fit into Easter Road, whilst maintaining 2m physical distancing?

Any more than 3k and the queue would probably be heading past Tynecastle.