if israel attack iran...

[Quagmire]

...which they most probably will, it would appear, what do you reckon the concequences would be (given that russia and china have warned Israel not to)?

 

might it result in us getting involved in a rather extremely nasty war that we, the people of britain, would REALLY feel the effects of?

 

i'm a trifle worried...

[Only a Game]

...which they most probably will, it would appear, what do you reckon the concequences would be (given that russia and china have warned Israel not to)?

 

might it result in us getting involved in a rather extremely nasty war that we, the people of britain, would REALLY feel the effects of?

 

i'm a trifle worried...

 

All we have to do, as a country, is distance ourselves from the actions of one state towards another, the reasons for which, has nothing to do with us. We have no responsibility to defend either country and in any case we're not in a position to deploy troops anywhere else right now due to our commitments in other countries we shouldnt be in.

 

Thats in the ideal world of course.

 

The truth is that any attack on Iran by Israel will be strongly, if covertly, supported by the USA, who have been itching to get into Iran since the days of Ayatolla Khomeni. When the USA gets involved in a military situation, whether covert or otherwise, we're usually to be found latching on to their coat-tails.

 

It is a bit worrying that China are becoming involved in this because they look like they are itching for a conflict themselves. Nuclear weapons in the hands of third world dictatorships with massive military might isnt a particularly good thing to get on the wrong side of.

 

Russia are a bit of a spent force as far as world powers is concerned and as a recovering economy becoming more and more westernised by the year, they're not going to be in any hurry to directly opose Israel and therefore the USA in a military situation..

 

Hopefully the USA will have just enough influence over Israel to stop them doing it, although Bush is on the way out in November and thats a serious feckin problem.

 

The worldwide consequences of a US backed Israel attacking Iran AND China jumping in on Irans side just dont bear thinking about.

[Incompetnce]

Aren't both McCain and Obama on the Israeli side, so that if anything did happen they'd move to support Israel?

 

This could get a bit interesting in the worst way possible :S

[Das Root]

Well it just so happens that Armageddon is a place in Israel so I suppose it was always going to happen sometime.

 

If Israel do attack Iran I just can't see beyond nuclear.

[shaun.lawson]

Israel aren't trying to start a war though. If they attacked, it'd be to take out nuclear reactors and/or bomb making facilities - just as they did in Iraq in 1981, and no war resulted. Don't get me wrong, I very much hope they don't - but even if they did, it'd just represent a regional escalation, and would not precipitate World War Four.

[Only a Game]

Aren't both McCain and Obama on the Israeli side, so that if anything did happen they'd move to support Israel?

 

This could get a bit interesting in the worst way possible :S

 

McCain is certainly pro Israel and he'll definetly continue supporting Israel.

Obama hasnt got much of a voting record since he's ony been a senator for two years and he hasnt said much on the subject but a good number of his close associates and supporters are anti Israel and anti current American foreign policy.

[Tazio]

Israel aren't trying to start a war though. If they attacked, it'd be to take out nuclear reactors and/or bomb making facilities

 

Just like Iraq was invaded to get rid of WMD's? And why should a country that possesses nuclear weapons deny another country the right to possess nuclear power? An Israeli attack would be interpreted as an American attack as they US and Israel are seen as the same entity in the Islamic Middle East.

 

And don't think for an instant that Israel would wait for a US green flag, they have several times in the past gone against the US's wishes in aggressive acts as they know that their lobby in the US has vast power.

[Tazio]

McCain is certainly pro Israel and he'll definetly continue supporting Israel.

Obama hasnt got much of a voting record since he's ony been a senator for two years and he hasnt said much on the subject but a good number of his close associates and supporters are anti Israel and anti current American foreign policy.

 

Obama spoke at AIPAC a couple of weeks ago and stated that his government would continue to give the strongest possible support to Israel. I don't believe any American politician is anti Israel as that would be the end of their career.

[Only a Game]

Israel aren't trying to start a war though. If they attacked, it'd be to take out nuclear reactors and/or bomb making facilities - just as they did in Iraq in 1981, and no war resulted. Don't get me wrong, I very much hope they don't - but even if they did, it'd just represent a regional escalation, and would not precipitate World War Four.

 

They're not targetting Iran as a country or the administration of Iran anyway. They are targetting Hezbollah who are tolerated, supported and sheltered there and launch operations from there.

 

Cant see much to suggest that China would be even interested in this, apart from the fact that they are looking for a scrap in general.

[Tazio]

They are targetting Hezbollah who are tolerated, supported and sheltered there and launch operations from there.

 

.

 

Really? I see that as a bit odd to say the least.

[shaun.lawson]

Just like Iraq was invaded to get rid of WMD's? And why should a country that possesses nuclear weapons deny another country the right to possess nuclear power? An Israeli attack would be interpreted as an American attack as they US and Israel are seen as the same entity in the Islamic Middle East.

 

And don't think for an instant that Israel would wait for a US green flag, they have several times in the past gone against the US's wishes in aggressive acts as they know that their lobby in the US has vast power.

 

In 1981, Iraq did have a nuclear reactor though: things had changed utterly by 2003. Iraq got rid of their WMD in the mid-1990s, as Hussein Kamal, Saddam's son-in-law, told us on his escape from the country. He returned, and was immediately captured and executed; and we ignored his testimony. Unbelievable. I actually supported the invasion of Iraq while absolutely certain they no longer had any WMD, and told friends as much too!

 

I agree with you about the crass hypocrisy of all this, by the way: something that only stores up trouble, feeds perceptions of Western double standards, and helps breed more terrorists. But I'm not sure if I can see an alternative as the world is presently constituted. The US will always support Israel; and the US veto means no Chapter 9 resolution can ever be passed against Israel by the security council. More hopefully, diplomacy between the European Three and Iran has at least borne some fruit; and Obama's rhetoric on the Middle East so far has been pretty encouraging.

[shaun.lawson]

Obama spoke at AIPAC a couple of weeks ago and stated that his government would continue to give the strongest possible support to Israel. I don't believe any American politician is anti Israel as that would be the end of their career.

 

It depends. Yes, there are phenomenally powerful Jewish lobby groups - and often, American Jews are way more hardline than their counterparts in Israel. However, you might be surprised at how many Americans now see all this very much as most Europeans do - and just as the Christian right has been isolated by the disaster that is Bush's failed administration, so you may, in time, find the most extreme ideas of Jewish lobbyists being rejected too.

 

Americans are supposed to value self-determination above all else, of course; and as a result, more and more Republicans are actually totally against Israel's policies in the Middle East, and Israel themselves know that time and demographics are against them, meaning they'll have to come to the negotiating table at some point.

[Only a Game]

Obama spoke at AIPAC a couple of weeks ago and stated that his government would continue to give the strongest possible support to Israel. I don't believe any American politician is anti Israel as that would be the end of their career.

 

He also said at that meeting

 

"Israel government must make difficult concessions for the peace process to restart".

 

He has also spoken about recognising the Palestinian people as victims in the Middle east and has attended many Palestinian and Arab-American events

[Tazio]

But at the same time the right in Israel is getting more hard line as the ashkenazi population grows. The worry with them is that they have no middle eastern heritage and see Israel in a much more hardcore and idealised way.

[Only a Game]

Really? I see that as a bit odd to say the least.

 

What ?.The fact that Hezbollah are supported in and by Iran or the fact that Israel are targetting an organisation rather than a country which shelters them ?

[shaun.lawson]

What ?.The fact that Hezbollah are supported in and by Iran or the fact that Israel are targetting an organisation rather than a country which shelters them ?

 

They did the same thing in Lebanon too, of course. Though that was spectacularly ill-advised, and undermined a government quite friendly to them: I'd like to think they'd be a lot more cautious where Iran is concerned, though couldn't say for sure.

[shaun.lawson]

But at the same time the right in Israel is getting more hard line as the ashkenazi population grows. The worry with them is that they have no middle eastern heritage and see Israel in a much more hardcore and idealised way.

 

Very true. What this has meant is the right invariably end up in power - but political reality means it simply can't be as extreme as some of its support. I mean, if Israel ever formalised some version of apartheid, even its allies in the West couldn't possibly defend it. And what I think could ultimately result is what history tells us: when a right-wing party in government is seen to have 'betrayed' its core constituency, its support fractures, opening a vacuum filled by the left. That's happened to the Tories at least four times in their history, for example.

[grumpyjambo]

Israel aren't trying to start a war though. If they attacked, it'd be to take out nuclear reactors and/or bomb making facilities - just as they did in Iraq in 1981, and no war resulted. Don't get me wrong, I very much hope they don't - but even if they did, it'd just represent a regional escalation, and would not precipitate World War Four.

 

Did I miss WWW3?

[shaun.lawson]

Did I miss WWW3?

 

Yes - it went on between 1945 and 1991.

[Boris]

Yes - it went on between 1945 and 1991.

 

Pedantic historian would suggest WWI was effectively the wars against Revolutionary France/Napoleonic wars so we would really be at WWV.

 

China & Russia would of course be a bit edgy if the Middle East came under US hegemony, what with the oil etc, but I odubt they would steam in on the side of Iran.

 

The UK should stay well clear. Unless these new aircraft carriers get built pronto!

[doctor jambo]

If Israel attaacks Iran we should do the only possible thing- do a Switzerland.

Supply both sides with copious amnounts of weapons and make money hand over fist

Supply Israel to keep the US sweet whilst under the table supply Iran and get the Islamic nations back onside to remove the threat of terror strikes on our nation

It is high time that our country stayed out of these conflicts and merely profitted from the misery of others

We owe it to the Arab world to NOT get involved in another middle east conflict

Make them our friends and be done with all this nonsense

[The Old Tolbooth]

If it were to happen I think WW3 could break out because you just KNOW that the yanks will be desperate to get involved somewhere along the line, which in turn will lead to Gordon Brown getting down on his hands and knees and sooking Bush's boaby and joining him, as our pathetic government always seem to do.

 

(ps, do you guys ever sleep?)

[Tazio]

What ?.The fact that Hezbollah are supported in and by Iran or the fact that Israel are targetting an organisation rather than a country which shelters them ?

 

No, what is odd is that you have a legitimate political group sheltering in Iran. Hezbollah are Lebanese based and quite open about their existence.

[Boris]

No, what is odd is that you have a legitimate political group sheltering in Iran. Hezbollah are Lebanese based and quite open about their existence.

 

Don't Iran fund/train/equip Hezbollah though? Revolutionary Guards from Iran helped them did they not?

[Tazio]

Don't Iran fund/train/equip Hezbollah though? Revolutionary Guards from Iran helped them did they not?

 

The links are undisputed, I was more pedantic about the premise that Hezbollah are a covert organisation who are sheltered by Iran. Iran have great influence over the entire Middle East due to the fact that they are a Shia country, traditionally the Shia have been the less powerful group in the area despite their larger numbers. Iran exploit this and the fact that in mixed countries the Shia population tend to comprise to a large extent of the less educated poorer people from rural areas. A fact that Hezbollah exploit as well.

[Boris]

The links are undisputed, I was more pedantic about the premise that Hezbollah are a covert organisation who are sheltered by Iran. Iran have great influence over the entire Middle East due to the fact that they are a Shia country, traditionally the Shia have been the less powerful group in the area despite their larger numbers. Iran exploit this and the fact that in mixed countries the Shia population tend to comprise to a large extent of the less educated poorer people from rural areas. A fact that Hezbollah exploit as well.

 

There was a chap in mitteleurope who also exploited the less educated rural communities back in the 1920's/30's.

 

I feel sorry for the Iranians. I think, like most average Joes, they just want to live their lives. Not their fault their system of Government is so rubbish. (No doubt someone in Tehran is saying this about us, well it would be nice to think so!)

 

As with anything, once fundamentalists get involved/hold power it is very hard to reason with them.

[deesidejambo]

Maybe just let Iran continue with their development of Nukes. The world will be much safer then.

[Toggie88]

We just have to sit and hope Israel don't do anything stupid.

 

They are lot less trigger ready than the US though, who would steam in if Israel done anything.

 

The UK would probably be right behind them. The only real global powers with any sense at the moment are Germany and Spain. Italy has gone to the right, but are a bit more concerned about the state of their own country to worry about anywhere else. France, still has a bit sense and keeps clear of the UK but Sarkozy has been cosying up a bit the US.

 

If Israel do attack - we need to hope nobody else follows them in. If the US do, hopefully China will just ignore it. Russia will stay clear as long as the Chinese do, I reckon.

[269miles]

Coincidentally I happened to watch BBCNews at about 4.00 this morning and a US Army general made a statement to the effect that the US was changing it's position on possible Israeli attacks on Iran : the Israelis couldn't/shouldn't necessarily count on US support.

 

So , we can all sleep safely tonight without the risk of a nuclear holocaust.

[Ibrahim Tall]

Can't see either China or Russia "jumping in" tbh, no country particuarly wants a war, especially won which if China/Russia/the US all end up involved in there will be no 'victor' of. Only thing which will happen in that scenario is the complete destruction of Iran and the deaths of pretty much every soldier sent there on either side and the risk that it might escalate into attacks on their 'homeland' which in turn would no doubt turn Nuclear before long.

 

Imo, the Israeli's will bomb the apparent nuclear sites in Iran within the next few months, China/Russia will condemn it, the Yanks will back it, but neither will do a thing. Can't even see Iran retaliating officially either, they'd lose. They'll more than likely be a massive increase of suicide bombings in Israel which of course Iran will have nothing to do with but that'll be it.

[alwaysthereinspirit]

Just like Iraq was invaded to get rid of WMD's? And why should a country that possesses nuclear weapons deny another country the right to possess nuclear power? An Israeli attack would be interpreted as an American attack as they US and Israel are seen as the same entity in the Islamic Middle East.

 

And don't think for an instant that Israel would wait for a US green flag, they have several times in the past gone against the US's wishes in aggressive acts as they know that their lobby in the US has vast power.

 

Israel take $#!t from no one. They are surrounded on three sides by countries that would like to see them disapear off the face of the earth.

Sometimes I wish America and Britain had the same attitude. We worry to much about offending other people when we should be worried about our own people.

[Toggie88]

Can't see either China or Russia "jumping in" tbh, no country particuarly wants a war, especially won which if China/Russia/the US all end up involved in there will be no 'victor' of. Only thing which will happen in that scenario is the complete destruction of Iran and the deaths of pretty much every soldier sent there on either side and the risk that it might escalate into attacks on their 'homeland' which in turn would no doubt turn Nuclear before long.

 

Imo, the Israeli's will bomb the apparent nuclear sites in Iran within the next few months, China/Russia will condemn it, the Yanks will back it, but neither will do a thing. Can't even see Iran retaliating officially either, they'd lose. They'll more than likely be a massive increase of suicide bombings in Israel which of course Iran will have nothing to do with but that'll be it.

 

I'd say that your outcome is probably the most likely.

 

The only thing that's worrying is if Israel use tactical nukes to hit the targets. That would open a Nuclear Pandora's Box, which could result in another Cuban-esque style missile crisis between the UK, US, Russia and China.

 

I'm away to listen to 'Blowing in the wind....

[The People's Chimp]

I'm itching to get into this thread, but sadly, being at work, i don't have time to do it justice. I'd need hours of free time.

 

****.

[Boris]

I'm itching to get into this thread, but sadly, being at work, i don't have time to do it justice. I'd need hours of free time.

 

****.

 

Given what may happen, time is a luxury you don't have!

 

 

[skacel is barry]

I was getting a bit depressed reading the threads in the terrace so I thought I'd come to the shed to cheer myself up...oh well never mind.

[Era Macaroons]

I was getting a bit depressed reading the threads in the terrace so I thought I'd come to the shed to cheer myself up...oh well never mind.

 

 

The end is nigh.

 

I wish some Jesus Freak would come round and chap my door, I would just plonk him infront if Kickback....'sort that out mate'....

[Sawdust Caesar]

Cant see much to suggest that China would be even interested in this, apart from the fact that they are looking for a scrap in general.

 

At least not until after the olympics.

[Pants Shaton]

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11622496&CFID=11736939&CFTOKEN=59425000

[Only a Game]

No, what is odd is that you have a legitimate political group sheltering in Iran. Hezbollah are Lebanese based and quite open about their existence.

 

A legitimate political group with links to terrorism along similar lines to SinnFein/IRA

 

Lebanon is their host country of choice and they do have involvment in the parliament, such as it is, in Lebanon but Iran supports, trains, finances and shelters them, especially their militia/ terrorist wing.

[Toggie88]

A legitimate political group with links to terrorism along similar lines to SinnFein/IRA

 

Lebanon is their host country of choice and they do have involvment in the parliament, such as it is, in Lebanon but Iran supports, trains, finances and shelters them, especially their militia/ terrorist wing.

 

The Sein Fein - IRA connection has been slightly different, even more since the Good Friday Agreement.

[Tazio]

 

Lebanon is their host country of choice

 

What utter tripe. They are a Lebanese political party. And as for terrorism, well that's a matter of semantics.

 

How can you be a terrorist group if your primary purpose originally was to rid your own country of an occupying force?

 

Yes they are funded by Iran in part, that has never been in doubt. As for their terrorist wing as you call it then that is the militia that was in place at the very beginnings of the organisation. I'm not sure why you have them sheltering in Iran when nobody is hunting them down in their own country.

[Therapist]

The only real global powers with any sense at the moment are Germany and Spain. Italy has gone to the right, but are a bit more concerned about the state of their own country to worry about anywhere else. France, still has a bit sense and keeps clear of the UK but Sarkozy has been cosying up a bit the US.

 

SNP in we don't understand global politics shocker.

 

Although if one can't do something as simple as make a flight on time, it's unfair to expect one to get one's head round the geo-political environment.

[Only a Game]

What utter tripe. They are a Lebanese political party. And as for terrorism, well that's a matter of semantics.

 

How can you be a terrorist group if your primary purpose originally was to rid your own country of an occupying force?

 

 

One of Hezbollahs founding cornerstones is to "destroy Israel" hardly the statement of a legitimate political party merely protecting their own borders. A feat accomplished 8 years ago now in any case when Israel withdrew from Lebanon, previously a terrorist state sponsoring murder and assasination themselves.

 

They are quite clearly a radical Islam organisation who do not merely concern themselves with the defence of Lebanon and in any case have no political mandate to do so

 

They have carried out asssinations, suicide bombings and murders of oponents both Israeli and Arab. They have militia and political membership from right accross the whole spectrum of the Shia muslem world, irrespective of nationality. Hardly the actions and make up of a legitimate national political party

 

Was the IRA a matter of semantics also then ?

[Tazio]

Lebanon, previously a terrorist state sponsoring murder and assasination themselves.

 

And where does this pearl of wisdom come from? Once again utter nonsense.

 

I would say there were 2 nations in the Middle East that have pursued a methodology of assassination regularly outside their own borders. Iran and Israel. While not alone in this they have used it as a revenge method more frequently than others.

 

Which form of terrorism was supported by Lebanon anyway? Shia, Sunni, Christian? Maybe Druze or Eastern Orthodox?

[Therapist]

Speaking of Lebanon, their red wine is absolutely first class.

[Only a Game]

And where does this pearl of wisdom come from? Once again utter nonsense.

I would say there were 2 nations in the Middle East that have pursued a methodology of assassination regularly outside their own borders. Iran and Israel. While not alone in this they have used it as a revenge method more frequently than others.

 

Which form of terrorism was supported by Lebanon anyway? Shia, Sunni, Christian? Maybe Druze or Eastern Orthodox?

 

To be exact, Lebanon was recognised in the west as a state sponsor of terrorism between 1990 and 2005, during which time it was occupied and controlled by Syria, another internationally recognised state sponsor of terrorism at the time.

 

PS Your points would carry more weight and would be far more interesting and readable without the patronising and belittling bits in bold as above.

[Koolkeith]

I know there are a lot of jewish folk in the us. My american mate says they call New Jersey New Jeruselam. Anyway, I was just wondering if someone could explain why the jewish lobbies hold so much clout in the us. Is it money that's invested in the us, do they give a lot of party donations. I just wonder what Israel as a country brings to the table, for all this hassle.

 

If we were to get rid of Israel it would be interesting to see what the freedom fighters/terrorists and the countries involved would do next.

 

Hope nothing happens this week as a couple of my mates headed off to israel today for a wedding.

[coppercrutch]

I know there are a lot of jewish folk in the us. My american mate says they call New Jersey New Jeruselam. Anyway, I was just wondering if someone could explain why the jewish lobbies hold so much clout in the us. Is it money that's invested in the us, do they give a lot of party donations. I just wonder what Israel as a country brings to the table, for all this hassle.

 

If we were to get rid of Israel it would be interesting to see what the freedom fighters/terrorists and the countries involved would do next.

 

Hope nothing happens this week as a couple of my mates headed off to israel today for a wedding.

 

Many think they hold great power when it comes to the banking system. If you control the Banks you control the World.

 

A bit 'conspiracy like' but who knows...

[Pants Shaton]

I know there are a lot of jewish folk in the us. My american mate says they call New Jersey New Jeruselam. Anyway, I was just wondering if someone could explain why the jewish lobbies hold so much clout in the us. Is it money that's invested in the us, do they give a lot of party donations. I just wonder what Israel as a country brings to the table, for all this hassle.

 

If we were to get rid of Israel it would be interesting to see what the freedom fighters/terrorists and the countries involved would do next.

 

Hope nothing happens this week as a couple of my mates headed off to israel today for a wedding.

 

A few reasons:

 

America supported the creation of the state of Israel as it was reluctant to accommodate the huge number of Eastern European refugees displaced after WWII.

 

The Jewish lobby is powerful in the US - money talks in the corridors of power.

 

More scarily, many fundamentalist Christians believe that the 2nd coming of Christ (and Armageddon) is dependent on the Jewish settlement of the Holy Land; hence the support of the Christian right.

 

... there are plenty others.

[Koolkeith]

Yeah, that's what I thought. They're pretty flimsy reasons though.

 

Britian could do with staying as far away from this as possible.

 

Was in the us a few weeks and was watching the Obama on tv at the jewish event. Certainly sounded like he was doing as much as he could to kiss their arse.