Help Buying a house in Edinburgh (title edited)

[Stuart Lyon]

So should I sell? No because I'll just have to buy somewhere else!

[coppercrutch]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7433111.stm

 

The mortgage market in Scotland has remained in better shape than the rest of the UK, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

 

Its first detailed look at the Scottish market showed that property in Scotland was cheaper and loans tended to be lower.

 

The CML reported that affordability was the key to Scottish resilience.

 

Overall, the Scottish market appears to be holding up better against the credit crunch than in the rest of the UK.

 

I find these 'findings' very strange. For the first time they are going into detail about Scotland in particular. This is because up until now they have not had access to these details. Fine I understand that.

 

So how can they now compare to a year ago ? What exactly are they comparing to..................

 

Nice to see they pander the usual line about more affordability in Scotland etc.. What these 'experts' ALWAYS fail to point out is the simple truth. There are some areas in Scotland that are some of the most overpriced in the entire UK. By their own logic these places will be hit hardest. In Scotland these places are Edinburgh and Aberdeen in particular. They never seem to mention this however. Always seem to use the words 'generally' and 'mostly' instead.....

[Deek]

I find these 'findings' very strange. For the first time they are going into detail about Scotland in particular. This is because up until now they have not had access to these details. Fine I understand that.

 

So how can they now compare to a year ago ? What exactly are they comparing to..................

 

Nice to see they pander the usual line about more affordability in Scotland etc.. What these 'experts' ALWAYS fail to point out is the simple truth. There are some areas in Scotland that are some of the most overpriced in the entire UK. By their own logic these places will be hit hardest. In Scotland these places and Edinburgh and Aberdeen in particular. They never seem to mention this however. Always seem to use the words 'generally' and 'mostly' instead.....

 

The guide to house buying in Scotland by Coppercrutch.

 

No matter what the experts say, I will put my own spin on it as I am always right. :star:

[coppercrutch]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7433111.stm

 

The mortgage market in Scotland has remained in better shape than the rest of the UK, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

 

Its first detailed look at the Scottish market showed that property in Scotland was cheaper and loans tended to be lower.

 

The CML reported that affordability was the key to Scottish resilience.

 

Overall, the Scottish market appears to be holding up better against the credit crunch than in the rest of the UK.

 

Oh and just out of interest Deek have a think about what this guy does for a living.

 

Have a think about what affects the money he has in his pocket the most.

 

This guys entire job and income is dependent on people getting as many, and as large, mortgages as they have in the last 10 years.

 

For the completely biased CML, Scotland is their last bastion of hope. They said exactly this about the rest of the UK not long ago.

 

**** it is so predictable and pathetic. As I have said like watching a train crash in slow motion.

[coppercrutch]

The guide to house buying in Scotland by Coppercrutch.

 

No matter what the experts say, I will put my own spin on it as I am always right. :star:

 

See post 104. My income is not derived from the property market. The head of the CML's is.

 

But if you would rather believe him then fine.

 

How about you go back and find out any accurate prediction he has made well in advance of the general public.

 

Because I have many for myself. But hey again if you wish to ignore them for an 'expert' whose job is to spin bull then again, fine.

 

I am simply offering advice for free. Based on common sense and a lot of investigation. Many of my predictions have been spot on.

[flecktimus]

I find these 'findings' very strange. For the first time they are going into detail about Scotland in particular. This is because up until now they have not had access to these details. Fine I understand that.

 

So how can they now compare to a year ago ? What exactly are they comparing to..................

 

Nice to see they pander the usual line about more affordability in Scotland etc.. What these 'experts' ALWAYS fail to point out is the simple truth. There are some areas in Scotland that are some of the most overpriced in the entire UK. By their own logic these places will be hit hardest. In Scotland these places are Edinburgh and Aberdeen in particular. They never seem to mention this however. Always seem to use the words 'generally' and 'mostly' instead.....

 

Whilst not agreeing with your Armageddon theory i have to say i found the article a bit hard to swallow.

[coppercrutch]

Whilst not agreeing with your Armageddon theory i have to say i found the article a bit hard to swallow.

 

Can I just ask why my theory is 'armageddon' ? You seem to know a fair bit about housing in this country so that comment really does not make sense.

 

I think we will get back to a time where the average home costs between 3 and 4 times the average wage. Apart from a few silly bubble periods that has always been the case. It was the case only 5 or 6 years ago in Edinburgh remember.....

 

Was 5 or 6 years ago in Edinburgh 'Armageddon' ?

 

I don't think so. For this to happen prices will fall by between 30-50%. The only question is how they will fall (Nominal or inflation) and how long it will take.

 

In a few years the average person will once again be able to afford to buy the average house. Some people will lose out big style but that is always the case. They will get over it.

 

The only 'armageddon' like aspect of my ideas are to do with the banking system collapsing and the World becoming a very scary place as a result.

 

Many senior analysts and heads of large financial organisations have fears for the entire World's financial system (Links on the estate agent thread), so this is not something to be taken lightly.

 

If anyone can tell me how a time when the average person can buy the average house is 'armageddon' I will give you ?10k. I have been offering this (SERIOUSLY) for about 3 months now.

 

Why no takers....

 

Maybe because I am right and I am not blinded by some mad British obsession with 'property'.

 

[flecktimus]

Can I just ask why my theory is 'armageddon' ? You seem to know a fair bit about housing in this country so that comment really does not make sense.

 

I think we will get back to a time where the average home costs between 3 and 4 times the average wage. Apart from a few silly bubble periods that has always been the case. It was the case only 5 or 6 years ago in Edinburgh remember.....

 

Was 5 or 6 years ago in Edinburgh 'Armageddon' ?

 

I don't think so. For this to happen prices will fall by between 30-50%. The only question is how they will fall (Nominal or inflation) and how long it will take.

 

In a few years the average person will once again be able to afford to buy the average house. Some people will lose out big style but that is always the case. They will get over it.

 

The only 'armageddon' like aspect of my ideas are to do with the banking system collapsing and the World becoming a very scary place as a result.

 

Many senior analysts and heads of large financial organisations have fears for the entire World's financial system (Links on the estate agent thread), so this is not something to be taken lightly.

 

If anyone can tell me how a time when the average person can buy the average house is 'armageddon' I will give you ?10k. I have been offering this (SERIOUSLY) for about 3 months now.

 

Why no takers....

 

Maybe because I am right and I am not blinded by some mad British obsession with 'property'.

 

 

Thats your Armageddon.

[The Old Tolbooth]

Don't even think about it, Lizzy. He lives with his mum and dad.

 

 

Ha ha ha!! Busted!

 

This is turning into a very entertaining thread

[Bigsmak]

 

Timing is everything. And it looks very likely that 2012 is going to be the time.

 

[/i][/b]

 

Are you going to live at home until 2012? Does your mum know about this? lol

 

 

Still watching with interest (sold my flat a few months back to rent for a while!)

[coppercrutch]

Thats your Armageddon.

 

Eh ?

 

Why is this not 'armageddon' when they increase by similar amounts ?

 

In the last 2 polls BBC has done on the subject more people wanted prices to come down than to go up.

 

I reckon at a rough guess a third of the UK population would be delighted with falls of between 30-50%. A third would be in real trouble. And a third wouldn't really give much of a toss.

 

Again if someone can explain to me how that is 'armageddon' you can have ?10k. Serious.

 

Now as for where the UK as a whole is heading that is a different story. It could well be 'armageddon' in this country in the not too distant future. And if that happens the price of a house will be the least of our worries!!

 

I hope that doesn't happen soon but it has to one day. I just hope I am well gone by that point in history !!

[coppercrutch]

Are you going to live at home until 2012? Does your mum know about this? lol

 

 

Still watching with interest (sold my flat a few months back to rent for a while!)

 

Nah I would have but I am being evicted !!

 

Seems even the usually painfully biased Evening News and Scotsman are finally facing reality....

 

http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Warning-city-house-prices-may.4148949.jp

 

"Warning city house prices may tumble after mortgage slump"

 

Shock horror !!

[Sherlock]

...Seems even the usually painfully biased Evening News and Scotsman are finally facing reality....

 

http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Warning-city-house-prices-may.4148949.jp

 

"Warning city house prices may tumble after mortgage slump"

 

Shock horror !!

 

Strange.

 

You seem to have no problem believing the Council of Mortgage Lenders Scotland in the above article....

 

...The property market in the Capital is not immune from the impact of the credit crunch and homeowners should prepare themselves for prices falling' date=' a leading lender warned today.

 

Crawford McGaughie, chairman of the Council of Mortgage Lenders Scotland, said there has been a real decrease in the number of buyers in the market as lenders tighten their policies – and it will have an impact on house prices.

 

His warning came as figures showed that the number of mortgages given out in Scotland plummeted by a fifth in the first quarter of this year...[/quote']

 

...but earlier in this thread you doubted you could trust him as his income came from the property market....

 

See post 104. My income is not derived from the property market. The head of the CML's is.

 

But if you would rather believe him then fine.

 

Is it standard practice, when you're trying to construct an argument, to only agree with a particulars fields professionals when they agree with you POV and pour scorn on their comments when they don't?

[coppercrutch]

Strange.

 

You seem to have no problem believing the Council of Mortgage Lenders Scotland in the above article....

 

 

 

...but earlier in this thread you doubted you could trust him as his income came from the property market....

 

 

 

Is it standard practice, when you're trying to construct an argument, to only agree with a particulars fields professionals when they agree with you POV and pour scorn on their comments when they don't?

 

Ok I see where you are coming from. But you have to remember a few things. These people are going to be overly optimistic when it comes to the market. Their living depends on it. Agreed ?

 

So yes when they are spouting the usual 'Scotland will be different' argument I find it laughable. When they come out and actually say something a little more realistic I find that telling.

 

Because if even they are now saying we may be hit hard the fact is they must have serious concerns about the market here.

 

My basic logic is not to trust anyone who has a vested interest in the propety market. However when someone who does have a vested interest says things will be bad ? Well that tells me things are going to be REALLY bad. Or good depending on your circumstances.

 

Anyway this is all detail. The fact is what I have been saying for over a year now is not even an argument anymore.

 

[flecktimus]

Ok I see where you are coming from. But you have to remember a few things. These people are going to be overly optimistic when it comes to the market. Their living depends on it. Agreed ?

 

So yes when they are spouting the usual 'Scotland will be different' argument I find it laughable. When they come out and actually say something a little more realistic I find that telling.

 

Because if even they are now saying we may be hit hard the fact is they must have serious concerns about the market here.

 

My basic logic is not to trust anyone who has a vested interest in the propety market. However when someone who does have a vested interest says things will be bad ? Well that tells me things are going to be REALLY bad. Or good depending on your circumstances.

 

Anyway this is all detail. The fact is what I have been saying for over a year now is not even an argument anymore.

 

 

But can we trust people that have not got a vested interest in the property market;)

[coppercrutch]

But can we trust people that have not got a vested interest in the property market;)

 

Well they have more chance of giving a neutral outlook on things.

 

So when I see numerous economists, lecturers etc.. going on about the UK's housing market as being in a serious bubble I tend to listen to them.

 

Of course maybe I am just being mental. I should probably listen instead to some spiky haired estate agent who wouldn't know a cycle if it ran over their head, or a bubble if it popped in their face....

 

 

 

 

V

 

 

 

 

Tough choice....

[Peebo]

Ok I see where you are coming from. But you have to remember a few things. These people are going to be overly optimistic when it comes to the market. Their living depends on it. Agreed ?

 

So yes when they are spouting the usual 'Scotland will be different' argument I find it laughable. When they come out and actually say something a little more realistic I find that telling.

 

Because if even they are now saying we may be hit hard the fact is they must have serious concerns about the market here.

 

My basic logic is not to trust anyone who has a vested interest in the propety market. However when someone who does have a vested interest says things will be bad ? Well that tells me things are going to be REALLY bad. Or good depending on your circumstances.

 

Anyway this is all detail. The fact is what I have been saying for over a year now is not even an argument anymore.

 

 

This is all detail???

 

I'm sorely disappointed in you. I would have thought that, by now, you would have been able to source a suitable answer to this point.

[coppercrutch]

This is all detail???

 

I'm sorely disappointed in you. I would have thought that, by now, you would have been able to source a suitable answer to this point.

 

No need. What I have been saying for over a year is coming true. That is the important thing. My predictions have been called 'mental' 'delusional' 'pie in the sky' and many many more. I wonder how many people still think that now..

 

Prices are going to fall by between 30-50% in real terms. Perhaps even more.

 

No point even saying it anymore. There is simply no argument to this fact.

 

I think most people understand this by now. Taken long enough though..

[Sherlock]

....Prices are going to fall by between 30-50% in real terms. Perhaps even more..

 

Can you just clarify exactly what you mean by "real terms"?

 

I don't want to misconstrue what you mean.

 

Can you spell it out by using a property valued at simply ?100K as the basis. Sort of fill in the blanks.... The price of a property previously valued at ?100K will fall to between ?X and ?Y by year/month Z.

 

Cheers;)

[coppercrutch]

Can you just clarify exactly what you mean by "real terms"?

 

I don't want to misconstrue what you mean.

 

Can you spell it out by using a property valued at simply ?100K as the basis. Sort of fill in the blanks.... The price of a property previously valued at ?100K will fall to between ?X and ?Y by year/month Z.

 

Cheers;)

 

No probs. Bit of background first of all !!

 

When it comes to house prices people always forget about the effects of inlflation. People getting a pay rise of 3% this year know they are not actually getting paid anymore. The 'value' of their money has just dropped due to everything else going up in price. So that 3% increase doesn't actually make them any better off.

 

Same goesfor housing. Your house has to rise in value by about 5% this year just to retain its value. It will not actually be worth anymore.

 

So for your example - lets say the rate of inflation is 5% for the next 5 years.

 

You buy a house today for ?100k.

You sell it in 5 years for ?100k.

 

It has actually lost 25% of its value without you even realising it.

 

Again if you have a mortgage on this you probably won't notice. The amount you owe will not have changed so it wont be that big a deal, especially if you are buying a home rather than an investment. However the 'value' of what you own is getting gradually less and less.

 

So when I say house prices will fall by 30% in real terms over the next few years not much actually has to happen - only small nominal(Actual price forgetting about inflation) falls are required.

 

If you think about it over 20 or 30 years it is easier to understand. A house in Edinburgh 30 years ago probably cost 10k to buy. Back then that was a huge amount of money. Today it is not. The value of that money has been reduced by inflation.

 

The same thing happens over 4 or 5 years of course. But because it is gradual people don't really notice as much. Unless you tell them !!

 

For people like myself who are wanting to get best value and into as little debt as possible big nominal falls are best. I imagine however a combination of nominal falls and real falls will occur over the next 5 years. Maybe only 15-20% nominal added to 20% plus of inflation. Who knows !!

 

PS. Sorry if the above post is dumbed down a little, I just know many people (Myself included up until 2 years ago) have no clue how the effects of inflation work.

[flecktimus]

No probs. Bit of background first of all !!

 

When it comes to house prices people always forget about the effects of inlflation. People getting a pay rise of 3% this year know they are not actually getting paid anymore. The 'value' of their money has just dropped due to everything else going up in price. So that 3% increase doesn't actually make them any better off.

 

Same goesfor housing. Your house has to rise in value by about 5% this year just to retain its value. It will not actually be worth anymore.

 

So for your example - lets say the rate of inflation is 5% for the next 5 years.

 

You buy a house today for ?100k.

You sell it in 5 years for ?100k.

 

It has actually lost 25% of its value without you even realising it.

 

Again if you have a mortgage on this you probably won't notice. The amount you owe will not have changed so it wont be that big a deal, especially if you are buying a home rather than an investment. However the 'value' of what you own is getting gradually less and less.

 

So when I say house prices will fall by 30% in real terms over the next few years not much actually has to happen - only small nominal(Actual price forgetting about inflation) falls are required.

 

If you think about it over 20 or 30 years it is easier to understand. A house in Edinburgh 30 years ago probably cost 10k to buy. Back then that was a huge amount of money. Today it is not. The value of that money has been reduced by inflation.

 

The same thing happens over 4 or 5 years of course. But because it is gradual people don't really notice as much. Unless you tell them !!

 

For people like myself who are wanting to get best value and into as little debt as possible big nominal falls are best. I imagine however a combination of nominal falls and real falls will occur over the next 5 years. Maybe only 15-20% nominal added to 20% plus of inflation. Who knows !!

 

PS. Sorry if the above post is dumbed down a little, I just know many people (Myself included up until 2 years ago) have no clue how the effects of inflation work.

 

Good news for you, seems that more people are coming round to your way of thinking.Traders are predicting a 50% real fall in house prices.

 

I thought you might need a bit of good news after the pounding you took yesterday.

 

One thing i would point out about this article is that its is sometimes a Traders jobs to talk down the market.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/09/housingmarket.houseprices

[coppercrutch]

Good news for you, seems that more people are coming round to your way of thinking.Traders are predicting a 50% real fall in house prices.

 

I thought you might need a bit of good news after the pounding you took yesterday.

 

One thing i would point out about this article is that its is sometimes a Traders jobs to talk down the market.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/09/housingmarket.houseprices

 

I can take a good pounding..

 

Yes I saw that article this morning. Nice of you to save me the hassle of mentioning it !!

 

Another one as well. This ones headline is quality...

 

http://www.newstatesman.com/economy/2008/06/house-prices-housing-british?

 

Iain Macwhirter has a warning: don't buy a house now, at any price. Just say no. You have been warned

 

Ouch That one is straight to the point !!

 

Funny how much of the info/predictions in those articles could have been taken from some random rantings of a 'pie in the sky' football chat forum member...

 

And all of this was available on this obscure football chat forum over a year ago...

 

Crazy huh.....