Help Buying a house in Edinburgh (title edited)

[coppercrutch]

Great i am getting advice from someone who wont buy a house;)

 

Exactly !!

 

So if I was forced to buy one I would follow the plan above to make sure I got the best offer available. I won't be doing it myself but if you have your mind set on it at the moment then why not.

 

There are a lot of people in Edinburgh just now DESPERATE to sell their house. Almost 10,000 properties for sale or to rent on ESPC just now. A few people have told me it is usually around 5-6k at this time of year.

 

You could (Should;)) take advantage of that..............

[PTBCAL]

Cheers lads,lots of good advice and recommendations,hopefully now i know how the system works:eek:i can buy a house and get back to Edinburgh:)

 

So if your moving back - are you buying a ST?

 

[PTBCAL]

Great i am getting advice from someone who wont buy a house;)

 

Why rent if you can buy?

 

Buying a house is an investment - esp med to long term.

 

4 moves in 2 years (2002 - 2004) netted me approx ?195k after all costs. However the market is not as strong now but Edinburgh compared to most is still buckling the trend I would say.

[Boris]

Why rent if you can buy?

 

Buying a house is an investment - esp med to long term.

 

4 moves in 2 years (2002 - 2004) netted me approx ?195k after all costs. However the market is not as strong now but Edinburgh compared to most is still buckling the trend I would say.

 

 

You mean it's crashing more!!!

 

[flecktimus]

So if your moving back - are you buying a ST?

 

 

Is there any available;)

[Deek]

 

Feck me

 

I have never seen so many smilies used in a thread in a long time. :107years:

 

Bid below the price:dribble: if you like :mad:PJ1 was correct in his post.

 

:jambobanana:

 

[neobis]

Well I think you will find half of Edinburgh has a few screws loose then !!

 

Beggars can't be choosers and all. And for the next few years (at least) those looking to sell a house pretty much anywhere in the UK are going to be the beggars. About time to. Everything goes in cycles and this was always inevitable.

 

Fixed price means nothing. What someone is willing to pay means everything.

 

I think although we have different views on the general outlook for property myself and Flecktimus are agreed on this point - Offer silly low prices. Why not........You lose NOTHING, and potentially gain lots.

 

BTW good shout with the ourproperty stuart Lyon.

 

Quality info. available from that, although they do miss the odd thing it is pretty good overall.

 

Good luck Flecktimus (Although I still think you should rent and wait !! ) and let us know how much under the fixed price you get it for.

 

If I were you, and if you like the place, I would offer a low price subject to survey and give them 24 hours to decide. Turn the screws...if not then move onto the next, then the next - until someone buckles.

 

Spot on again CC.

 

100% agree in the entire posting especially the part in bold.

[neobis]

Why rent if you can buy?

 

Buying a house is an investment - esp med to long term.

 

4 moves in 2 years (2002 - 2004) netted me approx ?195k after all costs. However the market is not as strong now but Edinburgh compared to most is still buckling the trend I would say.

 

Honest question; Why does Edinburgh buck the trend?

[flecktimus]

 

Feck me

 

I have never seen so many smilies used in a thread in a long time. :107years:

 

Bid below the price:dribble: if you like :mad:PJ1 was correct in his post.

 

:jambobanana:

 

 

As a matter of interest why should Edinburgh home sellers be any different from other people in the uk when they need to sell?

[Deek]

As a matter of interest why should Edinburgh home sellers be any different from other people in the uk when they need to sell?

 

Throughout the last 25 years of house prices rising and falling throughout the UK, Edinburgh has always bucked the tend. Prices have never fell during any period.

 

There is an inherent stability in the Edinburgh housing market and there is nothing in todays financial turmoil that makes me think prices in Edinburgh will fall.

 

There is still a huge demand for housing in the city.

[neobis]

There is still a huge demand for housing in the city.

 

What fact's and figure's are you basing the above on?

 

Throughout the last 25 years of house prices rising and falling throughout the UK, Edinburgh has always bucked the tend. Prices have never fell during any period.

 

... and just because it has never happened before (in the last 25 years) does that mean it will NEVER happen?

[topcat]

http://www.espc.com

[Deek]

What fact's and figure's are you basing the above on?

 

 

 

... and just because it has never happened before (in the last 25 years) does that mean it will NEVER happen?

 

Stalker.

[flecktimus]

Throughout the last 25 years of house prices rising and falling throughout the UK, Edinburgh has always bucked the tend. Prices have never fell during any period.

 

There is an inherent stability in the Edinburgh housing market and there is nothing in todays financial turmoil that makes me think prices in Edinburgh will fall.

 

There is still a huge demand for housing in the city.

 

I agree with you that the Edinburgh market has been inherently stable for the last 25yrs, but the Edinburgh market has changed. Now I don?t agree with some people that are predicting 30-50% drop. That?s Nonsense. But this downward turn will be different to anything Edinburgh has experienced in the last 25yrs. I will try and explain.

 

27yrs ago when I left Edinburgh I didn?t personally know anyone who owned there own home. I was a schemey, just like Buffalo Bill and PJ. Land and property prices where low, but the masses still waited in turn for there council house. That?s how it was.

 

During the Thatcher years people were encouraged to own there own homes, so I presume people like BB and PJ bought homes where in the past they would have waited for there council house because that?s what schemies did.

 

During the 80s, property prices in Edinburgh as stated above were relatively low. So during the mid 80s people started to become property owners. No more waiting for the council house. No more living with parents when you got married; you went out and got a mortgage.

 

Now because property prices were relatively low and Edinburgh as a city started to become more popular (just look at your thread our beautiful City)it missed out on the price crash of 1990 (I didn?t) so as you stated Edinburgh has had 25 yrs of growth and stability.

 

Home owners in Edinburgh have been in a unique position and enjoyed the offers over scenario in a rising market, where basically a buyer is going into a blind Auction.

The market has now changed, people can?t get mortgages or are holding back waiting for the downturn, which is happening. 44% of properties over ?500000 are now on fixed price. Houses are not selling and because Edinburgh property prices are now at the top of the food chain, Edinburgh cannot miss out on the price falls it avoided in the 90s.

 

Home owners that have to sell will deal (Human nature) and they will deal below the fixed price that?s a fact.

 

In my opinion we are about to see a window of opportunity where we are going into a buyers market and when it is a buyers market prices fall and deals are done.

 

There will be a market adjustment, but as you quite rightly point out Edinburgh is a growing market so this window will shut when the credit crunch eases and the buyers that are holding back move back into the market place. How long this will take I don?t know, but for the time being people that have to sell will have to deal. This was a fact of life during the 90s down south.

[neobis]

Stalker.

 

What a weird comment?

 

Please elaborate/provide evidence to backup such a ridiculous statement.

[Deek]

I agree with you that the Edinburgh market has been inherently stable for the last 25yrs, but the Edinburgh market has changed. Now I don?t agree with some people that are predicting 30-50% drop. That?s Nonsense. But this downward turn will be different to anything Edinburgh has experienced in the last 25yrs. I will try and explain.

 

27yrs ago when I left Edinburgh I didn?t personally know anyone who owned there own home. I was a schemey, just like Buffalo Bill and PJ. Land and property prices where low, but the masses still waited in turn for there council house. That?s how it was.

 

During the Thatcher years people were encouraged to own there own homes, so I presume people like BB and PJ bought homes where in the past they would have waited for there council house because that?s what schemies did.

 

During the 80s, property prices in Edinburgh as stated above were relatively low. So during the mid 80s people started to become property owners. No more waiting for the council house. No more living with parents when you got married; you went out and got a mortgage.

 

Now because property prices were relatively low and Edinburgh as a city started to become more popular (just look at your thread our beautiful City)it missed out on the price crash of 1990 (I didn?t) so as you stated Edinburgh has had 25 yrs of growth and stability.

 

Home owners in Edinburgh have been in a unique position and enjoyed the offers over scenario in a rising market, where basically a buyer is going into a blind Auction.

The market has now changed, people can?t get mortgages or are holding back waiting for the downturn, which is happening. 44% of properties over ?500000 are now on fixed price. Houses are not selling and because Edinburgh property prices are now at the top of the food chain, Edinburgh cannot miss out on the price falls it avoided in the 90s.

 

Home owners that have to sell will deal (Human nature) and they will deal below the fixed price that?s a fact.

 

In my opinion we are about to see a window of opportunity where we are going into a buyers market and when it is a buyers market prices fall and deals are done.

 

There will be a market adjustment, but as you quite rightly point out Edinburgh is a growing market so this window will shut when the credit crunch eases and the buyers that are holding back move back into the market place. How long this will take I don?t know, but for the time being people that have to sell will have to deal. This was a fact of life during the 90s down south.

 

There is a lot of sense in your post and I think we will have to differ in our opinion.

 

Although I appreciate you are in the property business and have much more experience than me. Edinburgh and Scotland as a whole has always had a much slower market than the South East of England and has always had steady growth.

 

I lived in a flat in Westminster, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, valued when I left at ?800,000. 2 years before that it was worth ?600,000. I suspect now it may only be worth ?750,000 and dropping. Although we do have some variation in Scotland the yoyo market has yet to appear. Variations will be on a much smaller basis than the south if at all.

[flecktimus]

There is a lot of sense in your post and I think we will have to differ in our opinion.

 

Although I appreciate you are in the property business and have much more experience than me. Edinburgh and Scotland as a whole has always had a much slower market than the South East of England and has always had steady growth.

 

I lived in a flat in Westminster, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, valued when I left at ?800,000. 2 years before that it was worth ?600,000. I suspect now it may only be worth ?750,000 and dropping. Although we do have some variation in Scotland the yoyo market has yet to appear. Variations will be on a much smaller basis than the south if at all.

 

No problem as you say it is all about opinion.

[flecktimus]

Yet another thread that the mods feel appropriate to rename...

 

My fault Put another posters name in the heading and then i think he took offense, so it got renamed.

[coppercrutch]

Throughout the last 25 years of house prices rising and falling throughout the UK, Edinburgh has always bucked the tend. Prices have never fell during any period.

 

There is an inherent stability in the Edinburgh housing market and there is nothing in todays financial turmoil that makes me think prices in Edinburgh will fall.

 

There is still a huge demand for housing in the city.

 

(1) Wrong - Please see the estate agents thread for the details. You are forgetting about the effects of inflation. Everyone else does too when it comes to property. Still not worked that one out.

 

(2) Wrong. Edinburgh will probably be one of the most affected areas. Please see my previous post below for the basic reasons behind this:

 

 

 

If the following statements were true I would agree Edinburgh would not be looking at serious falls. However.......

 

Edinburgh does not have a huge reliance on the financial sector.

 

Edinburgh does not have a huge migrant population ready to leave at the drop of a hat.(They rent out a huge amount of the BTL properties' date=' what happens to their flats when they leave....)

 

Edinburgh has not seen a huge building programme of flat after flat on every single spare plot of land.

 

Edinburgh has not seen the same spike and boom in prices that other places have.

 

Edinburgh does not have property that is vastly over-inflated compared to average salaries.

 

Edinburgh has not got the same credit and mortgage system as everywhere else[/b'][/Quote]

 

(3) Does not matter when it comes to prices. There is a huge demand in Edinburgh for Ferraris. Does not mean you will see them on every street corner.

 

There has been a massive credit bubble. This has fueled a massive debt bubble. This has fueled a massive property bubble.

 

All these bubbles have now burst.

 

There really is very little else people need to know about the current situation.

 

Long term average is for average property prices to be 3-4 times the average salary. At the moment it is more than 7 times. It WILL come back to it's long term average. Unless the rules of the last 50 years have suddenly changed. That is very unlikely, but of course not entirely impossible.

 

Only question is how these falls take place (Nominal falls, inflation eroded falls or a mix) and when.

 

Anyway we have been through all this before !!

[coppercrutch]

Why rent if you can buy?

Buying a house is an investment - esp med to long term.

 

4 moves in 2 years (2002 - 2004) netted me approx ?195k after all costs. However the market is not as strong now but Edinburgh compared to most is still buckling the trend I would say.

 

The above is why this country has become such a mess. Buying a house is about HAVING A HOME. At least it should be.

 

It should be somewhere to live and provide shelter and raise a family. That has all been forgotten in a mad rush for greed and more and more 'profit'. It is a sad state of affairs and the sooner we get back to people classing houses as HOMES rather than INVESTMENTS the better.

 

PS. Not getting at you personally PTBCAL just using you as an example.

[coppercrutch]

How long this will take I don?t know, but for the time being people that have to sell will have to deal. This was a fact of life during the 90s down south.

 

Indeed that is the key question !!! But if you look at previous cycles there has been an 18 years cycle both of the last 2 times. It is looking as though this cycle is shaping up exactly the same.

 

18 year cycle.

 

14 years of stable or rising prices (Usually huge rises in the last few years due to the greed and 'investment' aspect reaching it's peak.)

 

4 Years of falls.

 

Busts occurred in:

 

1973 - 1991 - ?2009?. Almost down to a tee.

 

So if this cycle follows the pattern of the previous 2 then 2012 is looking like a perfect time to buy your first home. Especially if you have a big deposit.

 

Who knows though, this time could be like a Japanese style bust. Could take 20 years to recover.

 

I will be bagging a bargain either way. Looks like Flecktimus will be too. He should be strong and hold out for a while for a bigger one though IMO !!

[flecktimus]

Indeed that is the key question !!! But if you look at previous cycles there has been an 18 years cycle both of the last 2 times. It is looking as though this cycle is shaping up exactly the same.

 

18 year cycle.

 

14 years of stable or rising prices (Usually huge rises in the last few years due to the greed and 'investment' aspect reaching it's peak.)

 

4 Years of falls.

 

Busts occurred in:

 

1973 - 1991 - ?2009?. Almost down to a tee.

 

So if this cycle follows the pattern of the previous 2 then 2012 is looking like a perfect time to buy your first home. Especially if you have a big deposit.

 

Who knows though, this time could be like a Japanese style bust. Could take 20 years to recover.

 

I will be bagging a bargain either way. Looks like Flecktimus will be too. He should be strong and hold out for a while for a bigger one though IMO !!

 

Wouldn't get to carried away with Flecktimus bagging a bargain.

 

1) Got to find a property i like

 

2) Then hope the vendor will deal

 

Not always easy

[Rawrrrrrrr]

Your quite tedious really coppercrutch

[davemclaren]

Your quite tedious really coppercrutch

 

I love the irony.

[Deek]

I love the irony.

 

I know what you mean Dave, but on this occasion he is right.

[davemclaren]

I know what you mean Dave, but on this occasion he is right.

 

True.

[coppercrutch]

Your quite tedious really coppercrutch

 

Indeed.

 

I have simply been telling people what the papers will be telling them next year.....

 

I will happily bet anyone any amount of money that is the case. The fact that no-one will be willing to take on this bet says it all....

 

CC is correct. Listen to my advice and you will be fine.

 

 

[LizzyHearts2]

Check out the ESPC.....there r tons of homes on the market right now....and nearly all of them r fixed price...and it has nowt to do wie the credit crunch...The market had been flooded with property developers, self certifying themselves(stupid eejits!) buying places for buy to lets and now coz they can't afford them, they r desperately trying to get rid of them b4 they get repossessed...all i can say is, that's wot they get for being greedy...nae sympathy for them...but it means folk like urself will get a great deal!

[LizzyHearts2]

Exactly !!

 

So if I was forced to buy one I would follow the plan above to make sure I got the best offer available. I won't be doing it myself but if you have your mind set on it at the moment then why not.

 

There are a lot of people in Edinburgh just now DESPERATE to sell their house. Almost 10,000 properties for sale or to rent on ESPC just now. A few people have told me it is usually around 5-6k at this time of year.

 

You could (Should;)) take advantage of that..............

 

And why is this? Maybe coz they can't afford the luxury anymore and have to sell fast....there r lots of reasons but one of them that is a huge factor is that most folk can't afford the mortgage, and more than likely never cud afford it, and are now selling up coz they need to get money b4 their homes are repossessed!!! There is a massive increase on repossessions this yr...and it's mostly down to folk who have been stupid enuff to bury their heads in the sand and not want to deal with the problem of affordability, and b4 u start slating me, i know all this as i deal with this kind of silliness every day and it beggars belief that folk wud put themselves at risk of losing their home in favour of a busy, so called wealthy, healthy lifestyle (aka Keeping up with the Jones's!!!) Folk need to live within their means and there r lots of folk out there who don't.

 

 

RANT OVER!

[coppercrutch]

Check out the ESPC.....there r tons of homes on the market right now....and nearly all of them r fixed price...and it has nowt to do wie the credit crunch...The market had been flooded with property developers, self certifying themselves(stupid eejits!) buying places for buy to lets and now coz they can't afford them, they r desperately trying to get rid of them b4 they get repossessed...all i can say is, that's wot they get for being greedy...nae sympathy for them...but it means folk like urself will get a great deal!

 

I have to admit whilst you talked pish on the other thread but you make serious sense on this one. Apologies. Respect.

[coppercrutch]

And why is this? Maybe coz they can't afford the luxury anymore and have to sell fast....there r lots of reasons but one of them that is a huge factor is that most folk can't afford the mortgage, and more than likely never cud afford it, and are now selling up coz they need to get money b4 their homes are repossessed!!! There is a massive increase on repossessions this yr...and it's mostly down to folk who have been stupid enuff to bury their heads in the sand and not want to deal with the problem of affordability, and b4 u start slating me, i know all this as i deal with this kind of silliness every day and it beggars belief that folk wud put themselves at risk of losing their home in favour of a busy, so called wealthy, healthy lifestyle (aka Keeping up with the Jones's!!!) Folk need to live within their means and there r lots of folk out there who don't.

 

 

RANT OVER!

 

Apologies Lizzy.

 

You have serious sense. And you also deal with this on a daily basis. What I have put in bold above is the telling point. Sad state of affairs in this country today.

 

 

A house should be a home. Not an investment. The sooner we get back to that the better.

[LizzyHearts2]

Apologies Lizzy.

 

You have serious sense. And you also deal with this on a daily basis. What I have put in bold above is the telling point. Sad state of affairs in this country today.

 

 

A house should be a home. Not an investment. The sooner we get back to that the better.

 

 

Thankyou for the apology! It just annoys me that people are so senseless. I have become cynical over the last few mths. Until feb, i didn't know much about mortgages/repossessions etc, but now.....it's crazy what i c on a daily basis. V scary wot people r prepared to risk to get themselves that perfect home...and i agree with u, a house is a home, i have lived in this flat for 7 yrs...to me it's home...i know it's not mine but until the market changes and the govt really pick their butt off the ground and help out, i am stuck where i am! i will not get myself into debt to please the govt, i refuse to become a statistic for them, i wud rather starve than live in a mansion, and, no, i am not being a martyr, am being realistic, i will get what i wish for eventually. I have to work for it...that's the prob with half this country, lazy bums and the govt let them get away with it, and folk like me pay for those lazy bums to do damn all. It ain't right and i will keep fighting my corner.

[coppercrutch]

Thankyou for the apology! It just annoys me that people are so senseless. I have become cynical over the last few mths. Until feb, i didn't know much about mortgages/repossessions etc, but now.....it's crazy what i c on a daily basis. V scary wot people r prepared to risk to get themselves that perfect home...and i agree with u, a house is a home, i have lived in this flat for 7 yrs...to me it's home...i know it's not mine but until the market changes and the govt really pick their butt off the ground and help out, i am stuck where i am! i will not get myself into debt to please the govt, i refuse to become a statistic for them, i wud rather starve than live in a mansion, and, no, i am not being a martyr, am being realistic, i will get what i wish for eventually. I have to work for it...that's the prob with half this country, lazy bums and the govt let them get away with it, and folk like me pay for those lazy bums to do damn all. It ain't right and i will keep fighting my corner.

 

Lizzy. I think I Love you.

[LizzyHearts2]

Lizzy. I think I Love you.

 

LOL! Awwww...well, wot can i say to that except...ty! lol

[flecktimus]

Lizzy. I think I Love you.

 

Glad to have been of assistance:heartpump:

[winston churchill]

http://www.ourproperty.co.uk/

 

sign-up here and enter the postcode of the property and you will see what houses in the area have been selling for recently. The site is good the don't inundate you with email but do send you a periodic review of sales.

 

 

cheers stuart.

 

just found out, a house 5 doors along from me sold for ?48.000 more than i paid for mine two years ago:)

[Ulysses]

LOL! Awwww...well, wot can i say to that except...ty! lol

 

Don't even think about it, Lizzy. He lives with his mum and dad.

 

[flecktimus]

Don't even think about it, Lizzy. He lives with his mum and dad.

 

 

True but Lizzy has her own flat:dribble:

[Stuart Lyon]

Jerry - you'll have a warm glow knowing that your house has increased in value. But wait the market is falling so thinks might not be so good at the moment. Certainly don't sell at a fixed price given what's been said earlier on this thread.

 

Lizzy why don't you buy one of the re-possessed homes; surely the are going for a bargain?

[coppercrutch]

Jerry - you'll have a warm glow knowing that your house has increased in value. But wait the market is falling so thinks might not be so good at the moment. Certainly don't sell at a fixed price given what's been said earlier on this thread.

 

Lizzy why don't you buy one of the re-possessed homes; surely the are going for a bargain?

 

Indeed. Just as 48k can appear out of thin air, it can disappear in the same way.

 

For most people the 'value' of their house should actually mean very little. When (And if ) I get a place and own 100% of it - I won't give a flying **** how much it is worth. It will be a place to stay. As it should be.

 

What most people fail to grasp is how inflation erodes any price increase.

 

You home has to increase this year by at least the real rate of inflation JUST TO RETAIN ITS VALUE.

 

So if you own a house that is 'worth' 200k and it 'increases' in value this year to 210k it is actually probably worth less.

 

Something that most people are not informed of. If they were this obsession with house prices would simply collapse.

 

Anyway been through this all before.

 

Keep us up to date with your bids Flecktimus !!

[davemclaren]

Indeed. Just as 48k can appear out of thin air, it can disappear in the same way.

 

For most people the 'value' of their house should actually mean very little. When (And if ) I get a place and own 100% of it - I won't give a flying **** how much it is worth. It will be a place to stay. As it should be.

 

What most people fail to grasp is how inflation erodes any price increase.

 

You home has to increase this year by at least the real rate of inflation JUST TO RETAIN ITS VALUE.

 

So if you own a house that is 'worth' 200k and it 'increases' in value this year to 210k it is actually probably worth less.

 

Something that most people are not informed of. If they were this obsession with house prices would simply collapse.

 

Anyway been through this all before.

 

Keep us up to date with your bids Flecktimus !!

 

What you are saying re the effect of inflation is clearly true. However, I believe most people focus on the differential between what they paid, their percent mortgaged and the value.

 

Anyway, even if you pay cash for your house I can't believe you would be happy if it's value fell 30% in a year. Capital erosion is never fun.

[Munch]

I am looking to buy a house in Edinburgh this weekend and will need advice how the system works and what are the costs.

 

Would be great if someone could recommend someone to point me in the right direction.

 

Cheers

 

Dont use REMAX, http://www.remaxcon.multiservers.com it takes around 40 seconds too appear on the screen once you click on the link.

[coppercrutch]

What you are saying re the effect of inflation is clearly true. However, I believe most people focus on the differential between what they paid, their percent mortgaged and the value.

 

Anyway, even if you pay cash for your house I can't believe you would be happy if it's value fell 30% in a year. Capital erosion is never fun.

 

I would agree that is what people concentrate on. And it does make sense. But that shows even more what nonsense it is for them to be telling people how much money they have 'made' on their house. They simply don't understand what they are talking about. So they shouldn't act like they do !!!

 

And no if I paid cash up front for a house and it lost 30% I wouldn't be too bothered - unless I was planning to sell up and use the money for something else in the very near future.

 

I will only buy a house if I think it is reasonable value. Whatever I pay for it is my choice. I will be happy with what I pay. I can't then be annoyed if the price changes. You have to live with your own decisions in this World. Most people are not prepared to do that however.

 

Timing is everything. And it looks very likely that 2012 is going to be the time.

 

Below is one of the best explanations I have ever read that describes the current situation with property in this country. Brilliant.

 

"And that is exactly why prices had to fall, and it's really nothing much to do with credit crunches and unavailablility of loans, or even UK economic conditions. You cannot sustain a housing regime whereby it is permanently more profitable to own a house than it is to save money, or earn money doing something useful, or invest in something that actually benefits the economy, because the core structure of a national economy cannot absorb that profit taking, since it has to be paid for by the next person or persons in line, and they simply run out of the ability or willingness to pay.

 

This simple, fundamental fact has STILL NOT BEEN GRASPED by the majority of house owners in the UK, and has not even been grasped by most apparently qualified economists, who still believe that somehow this profit comes out of thin air and that no-one else is directly paying for it. Those payers are first time buyers and others lower on the pyramid slopes. The giant con trick of property is that it successfully persuaded people that essentially money grows on trees, and you can go on for ever magically making vast unearned income and that also magically, EVERYONE is a winner.

 

The opposite is the case. The vast profits from housing are nothing more than a transfer of wealth from the bottom of the pyramid to the top. And once the top of the pyramid becomes top heavy, it has to come tumbling down. The tragedy is that it could, and should, have come crashing down years ago, except that millions of not very bright first time buyers were stupid enough to become lambs to the slaughter in this utter con trick. And this has been largely promoted on the complete myth of "shortage" which plainly is not true. The UK population has been conned and frightened into thinking that housing will be in a perpetual spiral of increased shortage, because they have no understanding of cyclic economics. Which is odd because a carbon copy of this happened about sixteen years ago, right on cue, and will probably happen again in another 15 to 18 years from now.

 

What economists and economic planners in government fail to do each and every time, is to stop the rot before it takes hold. Lawson let this happen in 1989 and Brown has let it happen in 2008. All the signals were there, but from pure selfishness and short-term gain, governments lack the spine to curtail house inflation until it is too late. The level of interest rate argument has proven to be also untrue. Economists were staunchly arguing that it is "different this time", but it is not. It doesn't matter if interest rates are 15% or zero percent: If the CAPITAL COST of housing exceeds that which is affordable by the stokers of the housing engine...the first time buyers...then the whole edifice has to collapse. The credit crunch merely accelerated it, but did not cause it."

 

[flecktimus]

I would agree that is what people concentrate on. And it does make sense. But that shows even more what nonsense it is for them to be telling people how much money they have 'made' on their house. They simply don't understand what they are talking about. So they shouldn't act like they do !!!

 

And no if I paid cash up front for a house and it lost 30% I wouldn't be too bothered - unless I was planning to sell up and use the money for something else in the very near future.

 

I will only buy a house if I think it is reasonable value. Whatever I pay for it is my choice. I will be happy with what I pay. I can't then be annoyed if the price changes. You have to live with your own decisions in this World. Most people are not prepared to do that however.

 

Timing is everything. And it looks very likely that 2012 is going to be the time.

 

Below is one of the best explanations I have ever read that describes the current situation with property in this country. Brilliant.

 

"And that is exactly why prices had to fall, and it's really nothing much to do with credit crunches and unavailablility of loans, or even UK economic conditions. You cannot sustain a housing regime whereby it is permanently more profitable to own a house than it is to save money, or earn money doing something useful, or invest in something that actually benefits the economy, because the core structure of a national economy cannot absorb that profit taking, since it has to be paid for by the next person or persons in line, and they simply run out of the ability or willingness to pay.

 

This simple, fundamental fact has STILL NOT BEEN GRASPED by the majority of house owners in the UK, and has not even been grasped by most apparently qualified economists, who still believe that somehow this profit comes out of thin air and that no-one else is directly paying for it. Those payers are first time buyers and others lower on the pyramid slopes. The giant con trick of property is that it successfully persuaded people that essentially money grows on trees, and you can go on for ever magically making vast unearned income and that also magically, EVERYONE is a winner.

 

The opposite is the case. The vast profits from housing are nothing more than a transfer of wealth from the bottom of the pyramid to the top. And once the top of the pyramid becomes top heavy, it has to come tumbling down. The tragedy is that it could, and should, have come crashing down years ago, except that millions of not very bright first time buyers were stupid enough to become lambs to the slaughter in this utter con trick. And this has been largely promoted on the complete myth of "shortage" which plainly is not true. The UK population has been conned and frightened into thinking that housing will be in a perpetual spiral of increased shortage, because they have no understanding of cyclic economics. Which is odd because a carbon copy of this happened about sixteen years ago, right on cue, and will probably happen again in another 15 to 18 years from now.

 

What economists and economic planners in government fail to do each and every time, is to stop the rot before it takes hold. Lawson let this happen in 1989 and Brown has let it happen in 2008. All the signals were there, but from pure selfishness and short-term gain, governments lack the spine to curtail house inflation until it is too late. The level of interest rate argument has proven to be also untrue. Economists were staunchly arguing that it is "different this time", but it is not. It doesn't matter if interest rates are 15% or zero percent: If the CAPITAL COST of housing exceeds that which is affordable by the stokers of the housing engine...the first time buyers...then the whole edifice has to collapse. The credit crunch merely accelerated it, but did not cause it."

 

 

Whoever wrote the article has a point and there is no argument from me that house prices will fall. Its just by how much and thats why fixed prices in Edinburgh will come under pressure until the market stabilizes.

[flecktimus]

Indeed. Just as 48k can appear out of thin air, it can disappear in the same way.

 

For most people the 'value' of their house should actually mean very little. When (And if ) I get a place and own 100% of it - I won't give a flying **** how much it is worth. It will be a place to stay. As it should be.

 

What most people fail to grasp is how inflation erodes any price increase.

 

You home has to increase this year by at least the real rate of inflation JUST TO RETAIN ITS VALUE.

 

So if you own a house that is 'worth' 200k and it 'increases' in value this year to 210k it is actually probably worth less.

 

Something that most people are not informed of. If they were this obsession with house prices would simply collapse.

 

Anyway been through this all before.

 

Keep us up to date with your bids Flecktimus !!

 

Didnt get up to view as my back packed up on friday and i can hardly walk.As for keeping you up to date with my bids i think that would be out of order.

[winston churchill]

Jerry - you'll have a warm glow knowing that your house has increased in value. But wait the market is falling so thinks might not be so good at the moment. Certainly don't sell at a fixed price given what's been said earlier on this thread.

 

Lizzy why don't you buy one of the re-possessed homes; surely the are going for a bargain?

 

 

this was my last move mate,unless the lottery comes up:).

 

i've been on the edinburgh property ladder for 18 years,i've had two flats and two houses,so i put a large wedge down on this house aswell.

[coppercrutch]

Didnt get up to view as my back packed up on friday and i can hardly walk.As for keeping you up to date with my bids i think that would be out of order.

 

I meant afterwards.

 

Will be interesting to see what is accepted and how much arguing you get before they fold.

[LizzyHearts2]

Jerry - you'll have a warm glow knowing that your house has increased in value. But wait the market is falling so thinks might not be so good at the moment. Certainly don't sell at a fixed price given what's been said earlier on this thread.

 

Lizzy why don't you buy one of the re-possessed homes; surely the are going for a bargain?

 

Buying a repossessed home or even a home that is not repossessed isn't possible at the mo for me and thousand of others just now as most banks have stopped the deals on mortgages, i can't afford a 100% mortgage.....then again....who can??? i am happy where i am and don't see myself moving anytime soon.

[Stuart Lyon]

Lizzy - being happy is the main thing. Your right not to saddle your self with a debt that would probably adversely affect your lifestyle. Enjoy.

[Deek]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7433111.stm

 

The mortgage market in Scotland has remained in better shape than the rest of the UK, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

 

Its first detailed look at the Scottish market showed that property in Scotland was cheaper and loans tended to be lower.

 

The CML reported that affordability was the key to Scottish resilience.

 

Overall, the Scottish market appears to be holding up better against the credit crunch than in the rest of the UK.