UKIP election success

[Boris]

So, UKIP win Clacton with a very large majority and run labour close in a seat in Manchester.

 

Is this simply a by-election protest vote, or does it point to a trend where UKIP will actually be there or thereabouts at the General Election?

 

I suppose the heartening thing, if you can call it that, was that turnout was incredibly low (51% in Clacton, 32% in Manchester) so perhaps the results don't fully tell the whole picture.

 

I wonder what, if any, effect this will have on voting intention s up here.

[Pans Jambo]

Think there is a bigger shift than usual toward the right down south and a slight increase up here as well.

 

This suggests to me that the predicted Tory/UKIP alliance will happen in the next general election.

 

God help us!

[jambo1185]

Clacton is hardly a surprise. He was a popular incumbent and would have won if he'd stood as Tory, UKIP or independent.

 

Manchester turnout is too low. Labour will comfortably win that seat at tje election with turnout in the high 50s and 60s

[Boris]

Clacton is hardly a surprise. He was a popular incumbent and would have won if he'd stood as Tory, UKIP or independent.

 

Manchester turnout is too low. Labour will comfortably win that seat at the election with turnout in the high 50s and 60s

 

I was heartened, if that's the right word, by the low turnout. However, apparently it was a similar level at the last general election.

 

I suppose what the analysis needs to show is whether it is disaffected Tories voting UKIP or whether they are gaining support from all points of the political spectrum. If the latter is true then that is quite scary, IMO.

[tartofmidlothian]

 

 

I was heartened, if that's the right word, by the low turnout. However, apparently it was a similar level at the last general election.

 

I suppose what the analysis needs to show is whether it is disaffected Tories voting UKIP or whether they are gaining support from all points of the political spectrum. If the latter is true then that is quite scary, IMO.

 

There were figures up for Manchester after it IIRC, the Tory and Lib Dem votes collapsed and mostly went to UKIP. Labour were actually up 0.75% on last time, as a share of the vote. As stated, the other seat was simply a popular candidate holding.

 

The question is, beyond Farage, how many credible candidates do UKIP have? The guy who lost in Manchester also lost elsewhere earlier in the year and I believe he's one of their brightest stars. As a protest vote I don't think they'll come near the success of the Lib Dems last time.

[The Real Maroonblood]

Read somewhere that it was the tabloid press scaremongering.

That sounds familiar.

[deesidejambo]

I was heartened, if that's the right word, by the low turnout. However, apparently it was a similar level at the last general election.

 

I suppose what the analysis needs to show is whether it is disaffected Tories voting UKIP or whether they are gaining support from all points of the political spectrum. If the latter is true then that is quite scary, IMO.

 

Its the latter i'm afraid.

 

The vote was nothing to do with jobs, nothing to do with welfare, nothing to do with the NHS, nothing to do with Europe.

 

It was 100% to do with immigration and as such UKIP will now know that Labour seats are attainable as Labout voters are also quietly (Quebec effect) against migrants also, hence UKIP will refocus to North England as target seats.

[ToadKiller Dog]

They are playing into people's fears , it what right wing populism like Farages preys on .

I wouldn't dismiss it as just a protest vote and all will be right after the next GE . UKIP ain't the BNP they have lots of former Tory Donars funding them they can appeal to both traditional labour and Tory .

They won't win more than half a dozen seats but they could be a king maker .

Already Farage has move the political discourse rightwards on many issues that's the main threat to me not his party .

 

His party doing well comes from a lack of ideology in the Labour Party its has left a poor left discourse in England with only the greens and sadly Galloway arguing anything near different from capitalist orthodoxy .

England and with them to an extent us will be sleepwalking into leaving Europe ,losing the human rights charter , ending the welfare state and the NHS if we ain't careful .

 

[deesidejambo]

They are playing into people's fears , it what right wing populism like Farages preys on .

I wouldn't dismiss it as just a protest vote and all will be right after the next GE . UKIP ain't the BNP they have lots of former Tory Donars funding them they can appeal to both traditional labour and Tory .

They won't win more than half a dozen seats but they could be a king maker .

Already Farage has move the political discourse rightwards on many issues that's the main threat to me not his party .

 

His party doing well comes from a lack of ideology in the Labour Party its has left a poor left discourse in England with only the greens and sadly Galloway arguing anything near different from capitalist orthodoxy .

England and with them to an extent us will be sleepwalking into leaving Europe ,losing the human rights charter , ending the welfare state and the NHS if we ain't careful .

 

The ultimate irony may be a Tory/Labour coalition Gov't against UKIP!!!

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

UKIP are the English version of the SNP, in the sense they are the anti-establishment party. Why anyone is surprised at them supplanting the Lib Dems as the party of protest in England is beyond me.

[deesidejambo]

UKIP are the English version of the SNP, in the sense they are the anti-establishment party. Why anyone is surprised at them supplanting the Lib Dems as the party of protest in England is beyond me.

 

I wouldn't call them anti-establishment. Maybe they are the opposite. They are making indoads into both Tory and Labour heartlands.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I wouldn't call them anti-establishment. Maybe they are the opposite. They are making indoads into both Tory and Labour heartlands.

 

To clarify, establishment means the political establishment.

[Boris]

To clarify, establishment means the political establishment.

 

I'd say they are establishment then.

 

UKIP reeks of Toryism gone wild.

[deesidejambo]

To clarify, establishment means the political establishment.

 

OK I get it now. In that sense I think they are a good thing as they have shaken the diehard, lazy, expeses-fiddling MPs from both parties in "safe seats" to the core.

[Boris]

To clarify, establishment means the political establishment.

OK I get it now. In that sense I think they are a good thing as they have shaken the diehard, lazy, expeses-fiddling MPs from both parties in "safe seats" to the core.

 

But I take the point that they have shaken up the comfort of those in place right now.

[deesidejambo]

I'd say they are establishment then.

 

UKIP reeks of Toryism gone wild.

 

No - they are making more worrying indroads into Labour votes. Now Tory voters in the North of England, who previously knew their vote was a waste, as Labour would win anyway, not know their vote may be important. This, coupled with the "don't admit to it" Labour voters who are anti-immigration, may lead to a big problem for Labour in the North.

[Chester™]

OK I get it now. In that sense I think they are a good thing as they have shaken the diehard, lazy, expeses-fiddling MPs from both parties in "safe seats" to the core.

 

Sounds like a UKIPer in Europe TBH...

 

As for the results, I wouldnt worry a jot over Clacton. Popular incumbent and keeps a similar majority. Some folk (ie the general public) will look at that and not realise that some constituencies can, and do, vote for politicians who do a good job for them

[deesidejambo]

Sounds like a UKIPer in Europe TBH...

 

As for the results, I wouldnt worry a jot over Clacton. Popular incumbent and keeps a similar majority. Some folk (ie the general public) will look at that and not realise that some constituencies can, and do, vote for politicians who do a good job for them

 

What about Manchester then? I am no UKIPer by the way. I think all parties may start to think seriously about alliances and coalitions now.

[Boris]

No - they are making more worrying indroads into Labour votes. Now Tory voters in the North of England, who previously knew their vote was a waste, as Labour would win anyway, not know their vote may be important. This, coupled with the "don't admit to it" Labour voters who are anti-immigration, may lead to a big problem for Labour in the North.

 

That's as may be, but it doesn't take away from the fact that UKIP are an extreme brand of Toryism.

 

Immigration and "nationalism" are their populist cards to play, but on economic matters and, I suspect, other matters, they are more libertarian minded which, as I understand it, is not traditionally what Labour have ever stood for.

 

If Labour voters are bleeding over to them it isn't about their overall manifesto. IMO.

[Chester™]

What about Manchester then? I am no UKIPer by the way. I think all parties may start to think seriously about alliances and coalitions now.

 

What Boris said.

 

A low turnout and voter apathy generally skews results as well.

[Gabriel]

UKIP are the English version of the SNP, in the sense they are the anti-establishment party. Why anyone is surprised at them supplanting the Lib Dems as the party of protest in England is beyond me.

 

I understand the point, but given the SNP has been the established government in Scotland for a number of years it's not really a fair comparison.

 

UKIP will take votes from Labour and the Conservatives in particular areas, and with a better organized and growing membership, it might yet pull off some surprises.

[deesidejambo]

That's as may be, but it doesn't take away from the fact that UKIP are an extreme brand of Toryism.

 

Immigration and "nationalism" are their populist cards to play, but on economic matters and, I suspect, other matters, they are more libertarian minded which, as I understand it, is not traditionally what Labour have ever stood for.

 

If Labour voters are bleeding over to them it isn't about their overall manifesto. IMO.

Agreed they are an extreme brand of Tory-ism. But perhaps they are also an extreme brand of socialism. Otherwise where did they get the Mancherter votes from?

[deesidejambo]

What Boris said.

 

A low turnout and voter apathy generally skews results as well.

 

True about the turnout, although it wasnt that low compared to GE averages. I think UKIP have simply tapped-in to a populist vein and are milking it everywhere - its immigration.

[Chester™]

True about the turnout, although it wasnt that low compared to GE averages. I think UKIP have simply tapped-in to a populist vein and are milking it everywhere - its immigration.

 

Or anti-EU (anti immigration is not the same).

 

Although I tend to think the media overplay them a good bit in the press as well. It makes them seem more important than they actually are. I dont remember all this pomp and ceremony when Caroline Lucas was elected to Parliament in 2010. Mind you, she'd be black affronted by all the current nonsense, if it had been afforded to her.

[The People's Chimp]

So, UKIP win Clacton with a very large majority and run labour close in a seat in Manchester.

 

Is this simply a by-election protest vote, or does it point to a trend where UKIP will actually be there or thereabouts at the General Election?

 

I suppose the heartening thing, if you can call it that, was that turnout was incredibly low (51% in Clacton, 32% in Manchester) so perhaps the results don't fully tell the whole picture.

 

I wonder what, if any, effect this will have on voting intention s up here.

 

The frightening thought (from the Scottish point of view) is that we are going into a general election which is going to be fought on immigration and the EU, and with the entire agenda set by UKIP. I watched a bit of question time last night. A pretty much entirely white audience moaning about immigration. Apparently youth unemployment is really high in Clacton. Not sure why that's the EU's fault however.

 

I fear that many will regret their vote in the referendum.

[Gabriel]

I watch the London or South East local news every night and the contrast with the Scottish news is staggering. There are stories about EU migrants living in shanty towns in woods, Calais being under siege from swarms of migrants, and illegal migrants fueling the black economy. It's little wonder that immigration and it's connection with the economy play a more significant role in voters' decisions.

 

The General Election will be fought on the economy, but there will be some on the Tory right who will know that last night was, in truth, a victory for them, and they won't let Cameron forget it.

[jamboinglasgow]

I always wonder what effect would Nigel Farage no longer being leader have on UKIP. To me, he is the focal point and what people most associate with the party, without him they are a disorganised group, a rag tag band. But sadly they are playing on the "we are not one of the 3 main parties so we can speak for the common man" when they could be a lot worse. They use Europe as a scapegoat and it appeals to people who are having it hard at the moment and want to blame someone, so saying its all Europes fault and Europe forces us to have all these immigrants, appeals to people.

 

Hopefully they are just that, a protest vote and they mess up before an election. Though would say that I find by-election dont often paint a true picture of how general elections go. Also UKIP seem to do well only when its low turnout, the other parties need to get people voting to stop them.

[Boris]

The frightening thought (from the Scottish point of view) is that we are going into a general election which is going to be fought on immigration and the EU, and with the entire agenda set by UKIP. I watched a bit of question time last night. A pretty much entirely white audience moaning about immigration. Apparently youth unemployment is really high in Clacton. Not sure why that's the EU's fault however.

 

I fear that many will regret their vote in the referendum.

 

I suppose it depends on how the Scottish Electorate then vote in May.

 

Without being all Ernst Thalmann about it, but I would find it amusing if we do end up with a Tory/UKIP government and can see the political capital that may be gained form it.

[The People's Chimp]

I was heartened, if that's the right word, by the low turnout. However, apparently it was a similar level at the last general election.

 

I suppose what the analysis needs to show is whether it is disaffected Tories voting UKIP or whether they are gaining support from all points of the political spectrum. If the latter is true then that is quite scary, IMO.

 

The UKIP slogan in the north "Vote Tory, get Labour" is everything that's wrong with FPTP. We will never reform westminster unless we move away from FPTP.

[Gabriel]

I always wonder what effect would Nigel Farage no longer being leader have on UKIP. To me, he is the focal point and what people most associate with the party, without him they are a disorganised group, a rag tag band. But sadly they are playing on the "we are not one of the 3 main parties so we can speak for the common man" when they could be a lot worse. They use Europe as a scapegoat and it appeals to people who are having it hard at the moment and want to blame someone, so saying its all Europes fault and Europe forces us to have all these immigrants, appeals to people.

 

Hopefully they are just that, a protest vote and they mess up before an election. Though would say that I find by-election dont often paint a true picture of how general elections go. Also UKIP seem to do well only when its low turnout, the other parties need to get people voting to stop them.

 

UKIP put its first MP in Westminster last night, nearly won another, which it should never even have been close to doing, and currently has nine MEPs. You won't find many politicians or people in the media describing UKIP thus.

[The People's Chimp]

England and with them to an extent us will be sleepwalking into leaving Europe ,losing the human rights charter , ending the welfare state and the NHS if we ain't careful .

 

Thankfully we're protected by the Scotland Act. Would be an interesting situation to have the ECHR apply in Scotland but nowhere else in the UK. It's things like this that, tbh, make me think that Independence is inevitable unless westminster is reformed. You could have 30% of the population voting for a party which wants to revoke the Human Rights Act, and it would be a fait accompli. It's outrageous.

[Chester™]

I always wonder what effect would Nigel Farage no longer being leader have on UKIP. To me, he is the focal point and what people most associate with the party, without him they are a disorganised group, a rag tag band. But sadly they are playing on the "we are not one of the 3 main parties so we can speak for the common man" when they could be a lot worse. They use Europe as a scapegoat and it appeals to people who are having it hard at the moment and want to blame someone, so saying its all Europes fault and Europe forces us to have all these immigrants, appeals to people.

 

Hopefully they are just that, a protest vote and they mess up before an election. Though would say that I find by-election dont often paint a true picture of how general elections go. Also UKIP seem to do well only when its low turnout, the other parties need to get people voting to stop them.

 

Unfortunately, the mainstream media struggle to analyse and report their policies on a regular basis. When they do, and when others do, most folk seem astounded by how flimsy they are. Until the MSM get their fingers out and scrutinise them more, rather than pander to them, their flimsiness wont be noticed.

[jamboinglasgow]

Unfortunately, the mainstream media struggle to analyse and report their policies on a regular basis. When they do, and when others do, most folk seem astounded by how flimsy they are. Until the MSM get their fingers out and scrutinise them more, rather than pander to them, their flimsiness wont be noticed.

 

Thats the thing, what are their serious policies? It only seems to be get UK out of Europe and even then they dont really give a good reason for that except to say that Europe is bad, immigration is bad. I think with UKIP the media can be a bit puzzled, some of what they says appeals to the right wing papers so they dont criticise UKIP as much as they should, the left wing papers can criticise but they are dismissed as out of touch of the ordinary voter by UKIP.

[Boris]

 

I actually think it's time to have grown up conversation around some of the issues that appeal to the electerote. The problem is people find this very difficult to do without making extreme claims and chucking accusations about.

 

 

I think you are spot on.

 

Tory & Labour prevarication over issues such as Europe and immigration over the last 30 years has led to a party like UKIP being formed.

 

As these issues have festered, populist approaches flourish as a misinformed and ignorant electorate react to soundbites and slogans without actually recognising the consequences.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I think you are spot on.

 

Tory & Labour prevarication over issues such as Europe and immigration over the last 30 years has led to a party like UKIP being formed.

 

As these issues have festered, populist approaches flourish as a misinformed and ignorant electorate react to soundbites and slogans without actually recognising the consequences.

 

I actually think the Tories did have a debate on Europe at the time of Maastricht and the reason the debate died was the contribution it made to its wipeout in 1997. As for immigration, it has been "shouted down" by claims of racism any time it is raised.

[Gabriel]

A link to UKIP's policies. http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people

 

Can promise the moon when you have no chance of governing, but can see why some of these would strike a note.

[Boris]

I actually think the Tories did have a debate on Europe at the time of Maastricht and the reason the debate died was the contribution it made to its wipeout in 1997. As for immigration, it has been "shouted down" by claims of racism any time it is raised.

 

Depends who is doing the asking Geoff!

 

But look at Scotland, we need immigrants, plain and simple.

 

While no policy can be viewed in isolation, you can see the logic of the right.

 

EU = immigrants = benefit immigrants = cut benefits

 

It's a smokescreen so they can cut benefits, imo, not just of immigrants, but for everyone. Then use that money for tax cuts to their pals.

[jamboinglasgow]

A link to UKIP's policies. http://www.ukip.org/...cies_for_people

 

Can promise the moon when you have no chance of governing, but can see why some of these would strike a note.

 

That was what the Lib Dems did before,

[Pans Jambo]

Depends who is doing the asking Geoff!

 

But look at Scotland, we need immigrants, plain and simple.

 

While no policy can be viewed in isolation, you can see the logic of the right.

 

EU = immigrants = benefit immigrants = cut benefits

 

It's a smokescreen so they can cut benefits, imo, not just of immigrants, but for everyone. Then use that money for tax cuts to their pals.

 

Surely not a tax cut for the super wealthy at the expense of the poor/needy/working poor Boris???

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Depends who is doing the asking Geoff!

 

But look at Scotland, we need immigrants, plain and simple.

 

While no policy can be viewed in isolation, you can see the logic of the right.

 

EU = immigrants = benefit immigrants = cut benefits

 

It's a smokescreen so they can cut benefits, imo, not just of immigrants, but for everyone. Then use that money for tax cuts to their pals.

That is simplistic Boris. When you have housing stress like there is in southern England, you can understand the electorate there asking how and why they are expected to cope with the population influx into a high population density area.

[Boris]

That is simplistic Boris. When you have housing stress like there is in southern England, you can understand the electorate there asking how and why they are expected to cope with the population influx into a high population density area.

 

Instead of asking their Govt to build more houses?

 

Smoke and mirrors Geoff, and there is a handy scapegoat just across the Channel.

[NRJ1966]

I agree with GK I do think they are similar to snp in many ways by being kind of protest vote.

 

Wow, that's some protest vote...maybe back in the 1960s..... but the SNP have been in power at Holyrood as the government of Scotland since 2007!!

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Instead of asking their Govt to build more houses?

 

Smoke and mirrors Geoff, and there is a handy scapegoat just across the Channel.

And which party is building more houses?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Wow, that's some protest vote...maybe back in the 1960s..... but the SNP have been in power at Holyrood as the government of Scotland since 2007!!

The point is that the SNP can present themselves as the alternative to the Westminster parties. UKIP are doing exactly the same thing.

 

It's also exacerbated by the Lib Dems being part of the coalition. They used to be the party of the protest vote.

[Gabriel]

That was what the Lib Dems did before,

 

,before helping form the government.

[Boris]

And which party is building more houses?

 

NONE!

 

Which shows how ludicrous our politics have become. Race to the bottom indeed!

 

With or without immigration, there is stress on the housing stock, public and private, yet instead of tackling that issue, it's glossed over by scaremongering and sabre rattling over immigration as the politicos know this is a vote winner as it plays to the ill informed and, as such, ignorant electorate.

 

None of the main parties and I include UKIP is really interested in making a difference or to democratise or to genuinely represent the people. It's about getting their grubby little snouts into the trough and to coin it in through special favours and patronage.

 

But that's how it's always been to a greater or lesser extent.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

NONE!

 

Which shows how ludicrous our politics have become. Race to the bottom indeed!

 

With or without immigration, there is stress on the housing stock, public and private, yet instead of tackling that issue, it's glossed over by scaremongering and sabre rattling over immigration as the politicos know this is a vote winner as it plays to the ill informed and, as such, ignorant electorate.

 

None of the main parties and I include UKIP is really interested in making a difference or to democratise or to genuinely represent the people. It's about getting their grubby little snouts into the trough and to coin it in through special favours and patronage.

 

But that's how it's always been to a greater or lesser extent.

I don't disagree but then people have two choices. Either don't vote (as most people did in Heywood) or seek an alternative.

 

BTW, I will give Carswell his due for being a free thinker and espousing those ideas, whether you agree with them or not.

[Boris]

I don't disagree but then people have two choices. Either don't vote (as most people did in Heywood) or seek an alternative.

 

BTW, I will give Carswell his due for being a free thinker and espousing those ideas, whether you agree with them or not.

 

People are entitled to their opinions, but my point is that the real issues that need addressing are sidelined or swept under a carpet of convenience, in this instance that carpet is called immigration or "sovereignty" (EU).

 

It's all a con. What they really want is to screw the working class for even more so employers don't have to take statutory responsibility for things.

 

Pesky humans and their rights!

[Ray Gin]

The rise of UKIP in Englandshire was a large factor in swaying me towards a YES vote.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

People are entitled to their opinions, but my point is that the real issues that need addressing are sidelined or swept under a carpet of convenience, in this instance that carpet is called immigration or "sovereignty" (EU).

 

It's all a con. What they really want is to screw the working class for even more so employers don't have to take statutory responsibility for things.

 

Pesky humans and their rights!

The EU is the main reason my Mum's former employer (she's retired) has decided to close their manufacturing plant in my hometown this week, due to regulations on the size of hand roll tobacco packets.

 

When things like that happen, that resonates beyond any bullshit printed in the right wing press.