Reasonable Question!

[rorcos]

As there seems to be a large number of people unhappy with the thought of Frail as Manager next season, can someone tell me if a league had started at when Shaggy took supposed control, where would we have been at the time of the split.

 

I ask this to see how good / bad an option he actually is.

 

If this is boring then sorry!

[Commander Harris]

I think if you stretch frails results since jan 1st over the period of a season you have Hearts comfortable 3rd. But there is no guarantee that Frail would be able to achieve that level of consistency over a full season, full control or not, so it's not that useful a stat.

 

All it shows is how far a bit of consistency goes in this league.

[Marmeladent?rtchen]

Fair question,,, I look forward to answer.

 

I think issue is that performance was not there in the games.

 

Frail is not ready for Hearts yet IMO.

[Guest JamboRobbo]

I think if you stretch frails results since jan 1st over the period of a season you have Hearts comfortable 3rd. But there is no guarantee that Frail would be able to achieve that level of consistency over a full season, full control or not, so it's not that useful a stat.

 

All it shows is how far a bit of consistency goes in this league.

 

whilst Frail has improved results slightly, what that stat fails to take into account is that he took over just after we played OF, and only had to play them each once in 18 games.....

[Guest casper]

Some of the performances, particularly in the important games (eg. cups and Falkirk at home) were terrible. More importantly, Frail has already shown himself to be spoiled goods by his willingness to play the players the owner wants during his period on the committee and while he has had "total control".

[bistokid]

I think despite on what on paper looks like a decent run of results we have seen some abysmal performances against teams with far less talent, much smaller wage bills. We have had the odd run of results but when it has came to the crunch we have failed to put up a fight which effectively ended our interest in both cup competitions.

His choice of personel has been incredibly dubious, Calum Elliot being a prime example.

All in all he has done what you might expect from someone with no experience of top flight management who has been thrown in at the deep end.

He certainly is not the right man for the job, unfortunatly for us he may well be the only man.

[Ryan Gosling]

With Frail's record, we'd have 68 points come the end of the season.

 

Comfortable 3rd.

 

Incidentally, we're unbeaten in 6 games, since February.

[Ryan Gosling]

At this stage of the season (34 games), if Motherwell win their 2 games in hand they'd have 58. We would have 61.

[topcat]

By my calculations.

Giving him the benefit of the doubt and starting counting after the 4-1 defeat to Dundee United on the 2nd (i.e. assuming that he was handed control on the 1st but didn't have time to make any difference) we would have been behind Hibs on Goal Difference with a game in hand.

 

Rangers Pld 11, W 11,D 0,L 0, Pts 33 (+22 GD)

Celtic Pld 11, W 8,D 1,L 2, Pts 25 (+14 GD)

Hibernian Pld 13, W 7,D 1,L 5, Pts 22 (+7 GD)

Hearts Pld 12, W 6,D 4,L 2, Pts 22 (+2 GD)

Dundee United Pld 11, W 4,D 5,L 2, Pts 17 (+6 GD)

Motherwell Pld 11, W 5,D 2,L 4, Pts 17 (+1 GD)

St Mirren Pld 12, W 3,D 4,L 5, Pts 13 (-7 GD)

Kilmarnock Pld 12, W 3,D 3,L 6, Pts 12 (-3 GD)

Falkirk Pld 11, W 2,D 5,L 4, Pts 11 (-2 GD)

Aberdeen Pld 11, W 2,D 3,L 6, Pts 9 (-10 GD)

Inverness CT Pld 12, W 2,D 2,L 8, Pts 8 (-10 GD)

Gretna Pld 13, W 2,D 0,L 11, Pts -4 (-20 GD)

 

If you include the Dundee United game the picture remains similar although Dundee United are obviously closer and as Hibs didn't play that day the game in Hand evaporates but the gap in goal difference is reduced from 5 goals to 2

[pennantjambo]

Sorry m8, but your question goes back to the Burley scenario of would he or would'nt he. Let's not forget he was destroying the club at the same time.

 

However if shaggy had full control at the beginning of the season there's no doubt we would have faired better.

 

Such a shame that with the exception of Motherwell and Dundee Utd, the rest, and that includes ourselves were mince, and IMO the league was wide open this season and there for the taking.

 

It has not gone un-noticed that the two earlier mentioned clubs installed new managers pre season and have performed admirably given their limited resources.

 

If only eh?

[Guest JamboRobbo]

By my calculations.

Giving him the benefit of the doubt and starting counting after the 4-1 defeat to Dundee United on the 2nd (i.e. assuming that he was handed control on the 1st but didn't have time to make any difference) we would have been behind Hibs on Goal Difference with a game in hand.

 

Rangers , W 11,D 0,L 0, Pts 33 (+22 GD)

Celtic , W 8,D 1,L 2, Pts 25 (+14 GD)

Hibernian , W 7,D 1,L 5, Pts 22 (+7 GD)

Hearts , W 6,D 4,L 2, Pts 22 (+2 GD)

Dundee United , W 4,D 5,L 2, Pts 17 (+6 GD)

Motherwell , W 5,D 2,L 4, Pts 17 (+1 GD)

St Mirren , W 3,D 4,L 5, Pts 13 (-7 GD)

Kilmarnock , W 3,D 3,L 6, Pts 12 (-3 GD)

Falkirk , W 2,D 5,L 4, Pts 11 (-2 GD)

Aberdeen , W 2,D 3,L 6, Pts 9 (-10 GD)

Inverness CT , W 2,D 2,L 8, Pts 8 (-10 GD)

Gretna , W 2,D 0,L 11, Pts -4 (-20 GD)

 

If you include the Dundee United game the picture remains similar although Dundee United are obviously closer and as Hibs didn't play that day the game in Hand evaporates but the gap in goal difference is reduced from 5 goals to 2

 

 

and if he'd had to play the OF the regulation number of times, we'd be back where we started.....

[JamboGraham]

IMO the league was wide open this season and there for the taking.

 

When you say "league" do you mean the championship as a whole or the race for 3rd place?

[Dr. Bapswent]

As there seems to be a large number of people unhappy with the thought of Frail as Manager next season, can someone tell me if a league had started at when Shaggy took supposed control, where would we have been at the time of the split.

 

I ask this to see how good / bad an option he actually is.

 

If this is boring then sorry!

 

I think its fair to say, that if Frail had been simply appointed the gaffer, there would have been a lot of unhappy people, but they would now mostly be silent, through the fact they are used to it, but also through a feeling of submission to having another poor manager.

 

The thing that has got everyone so worked up.

 

And a theme that runs through many of the perceived big mistakes from VR is that he has promised something different, something bigger and better.

 

Therefore fans are expectant, and dissapointed when it doesnt happen.

 

Remove the promise, and you remove the expectation. Youd get a lot of unhappy fans at Frail being the boss, but at this stage down the line (when it looks like he WILL be the boss), people would not be climbing the walls.

 

Im not suggesting Frail is a good boss, or that he should be. Just that much of the reaction to this, and many of the other issues has purely been a let down at the carrot we have been shown, and then the actual end result.

[pennantjambo]

When you say "league" do you mean the championship as a whole or the race for 3rd place?

 

The championship without doubt. The OF had no decent opposition at all this season.

 

I'm absolutely certain that a manager of any decent quality even McGhee for heavens sake would have had us disciplined and putting in a decent challenge.

 

Given the fact that we were not too far behind third place when the split came, I think thats the least we would have secured.

[Bunny Munro]

frail hasn't been that impressive to be honest. If you look at all games (not just the leugue since the 1st it gos like this.

 

Loss

Draw

Draw

Win

Loss

Win

Loss

Win

Loss

Win

Loss

Win

Draw

Draw

Win

Draw

Win

 

So thats 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses.

 

Better than it was mind.

[ToadKiller Dog]

The facts are that at some point this season we have beaten everyone above us (celtic in the LC),very frustrating and shows were we could be even with the current squad.

yes Frail has done a steadying job with his best result i think the win over united.but when it came to the crunch games,cup games, the away games at St midden ,kille and home to falkirk he was unable to change the games when needed ,he should have had us in the top 6.

I like the guy he seems honest and doing what he thinks is best,but i dont think he is the answer to what is needed but as i said in January that i think shaggy is suited more to the number 2 position(and would be top quality one) as getting called shaggy by the players seems to suggest.

[Ryan Gosling]

frail hasn't been that impressive to be honest. If you look at all games (not just the leugue since the 1st it gos like this.

 

Loss

Draw

Draw

Win

Loss

Win

Loss

Win

Loss

Win

Loss

Win

Draw

Draw

Win

Draw

Win

 

So thats 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses.

 

Better than it was mind.

 

Yes but you've included 3 cup games.

 

Remove those and it's 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses.

[JamboGraham]

Therefore fans are expectant, and dissapointed when it doesnt happen.

 

I agree here...

 

Based on the resources that we used this season (mainly financial) then we should be a comfortable 3rd. The fact that we are not in third place is where the anger should be, and rightly so.

 

However, if any of us are angry that we are not winning the SPL or getting ready to lift the Champions league then that is just scary!

 

These "promises" are simply not going to happen and it doesn't require Romanov to leave the club or apologise/retract for any of us to realise that this is true and move on...

[JamboGraham]

The championship without doubt. The OF had no decent opposition at all this season.

 

I'm absolutely certain that a manager of any decent quality even McGhee for heavens sake would have had us disciplined and putting in a decent challenge.

 

Given the fact that we were not too far behind third place when the split came, I think thats the least we would have secured.

 

Not sure I can agree with you here. Since we split the old firm two years ago they have spent ?16m and ?19m on transfers alone (never mind wages and bosmans/loans).

[Bunny Munro]

Yes but you've included 3 cup games.

 

Remove those and it's 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses.

 

Our chances of winning the leugue are extreamly slim.

Our chances of winning a cup are much higher.

 

Therefore the cup games are just as important IMHO.

[ecjambo]

He has done fairly well since he has been given near enough full control of the team. Things have certainly improved on the field and performances generally have been better. Should he be given the managers job?

 

Its down to people's own opinion really. He would probably do a ok job but is that enough? Is it enough for Romanov? Is it enough for the fans?

 

The only thing Id like to see is some commitment from Hearts and actually interviewing people for the job, including Frail. See what candidates qualities are and see where they want to take Hearts. What level?

 

Whoever is given the job they surely can not produce another season like this.

[ToadKiller Dog]

Our chances of winning the leugue are extreamly slim.

Our chances of winning a cup are much higher.

 

Therefore the cup games are just as important IMHO.

 

The more important games in terms of testing Frail were the league games at vrs St Mirren ,home to falkirk and away to killie before the split we failed to win any of them when it was needed ,he was unable to alter our tactics to do so.

the cup games were disappointing, but the real test are the games that mattered in the league and his inexperience stood out more so in the 0-0 at home to falkirk.

[topcat]

Sorry m8, but your question goes back to the Burley scenario of would he or would'nt he. Let's not forget he was destroying the club at the same time.

 

However if shaggy had full control at the beginning of the season there's no doubt we would have faired better.

 

Reasonable and balanced analysis.

 

Although it should be pointed out that there is a far more significant potential upwards margin of error when extrapolating Frails results out to a full season than there is for Burley.

 

If Frail had been in charge all season and enjoyed better luck in the first part of his hypothetical 33 game tenure than he had in the real 12 games then he could well have exceeded the projected 61 points sufficiently to make Celtic look nervously over their shoulder. If he'd endured poorer fortunes we could have found ourselves at the foot of the chasing pack in the battle for third.

 

Any points total between 50 and 70 looks plausible

 

Such a shame that with the exception of Motherwell and Dundee Utd, the rest, and that includes ourselves were mince, and IMO the league was wide open this season and there for the taking.

 

It has not gone un-noticed that the two earlier mentioned clubs installed new managers pre season and have performed admirably given their limited resources.

 

It should of course also be noticed that it took Dundee United about half a decade of chopping and changing before they settled on Levein. Eddie Thomson receives a lot of praise for the wisdom of his decision on this forum but he was bound to get it right eventually.

[topcat]

and if he'd had to play the OF the regulation number of times, we'd be back where we started.....

 

Errr...

 

In those 12 league games we played each of the OF once* Which is the expected number of games against one of 11 opponents (Technically it's 1.09 times but that's close enough).

 

*Celtic (A) 16th Feb, Rangers (H) 27th Feb

[sked21]

All well and good looking at looking at over a couple dozen games.

 

But as JR said look at the teams we have played. To be honest I reckon a competent manager would of had us easily in the top six.

 

I may be being a tad harsh. But I don't like Frail as a manager.

[Only a Game]

As there seems to be a large number of people unhappy with the thought of Frail as Manager next season, can someone tell me if a league had started at when Shaggy took supposed control, where would we have been at the time of the split.

 

I ask this to see how good / bad an option he actually is.

 

If this is boring then sorry!

 

The answer is that Frail was a significant part of the coaching team from Day 1 of the season and played a fully compliant and voluntary part in the shambles that ensued.

[Ray Winstone]

The problem is Frail has done a good job in getting us to a level of consistance which has been good - however the performances have, for the most part, been dire - with a tendancy to bottle it in the big games!

 

Frail is tactically unaware - and I personally dont think its good when a coach comes in and takes over - the players still refer to him as "Shaggy" which should not happen for a start.

 

Frail is not ready to be manager of Hearts.

 

Sadly - it looks like he will be appointed!

[Spellczech]

As there seems to be a large number of people unhappy with the thought of Frail as Manager next season, can someone tell me if a league had started at when Shaggy took supposed control, where would we have been at the time of the split.

 

I ask this to see how good / bad an option he actually is.

 

If this is boring then sorry!

 

The stats also show that only the OF have taken over 20/30 in 2 of the 3 sets of fixtures. Our 20+ came in Round 3 when our large squad ought to have been of benefit to us anyway.

 

The feeling that Shaggy is not ready are not purely results based anyway: It is thought that he is too familiar with the players and that his substitutions are uninspiring. There is also the suspicion that he has a defeatist attitude towards playing big games 4-5-1 against the OF and 2 "must-wins" against DUFC and Killie????

 

Moreover, he only got us from 10th to 8th between January 1 and the split.

[Cut The Crap]

Yes but you've included 3 cup games.

 

Remove those and it's 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses.

 

Surely it's also unfair to include the 3 lost league games?

 

Remove those and it's 7 wins, 4 draws and no losses at all.

 

Scooby snacks all round!

[Domokun]

Some of the performances, particularly in the important games (eg. cups and Falkirk at home) were terrible. More importantly, Frail has already shown himself to be spoiled goods by his willingness to play the players the owner wants during his period on the committee and while he has had "total control".

 

CORRECT.

 

Bottom ______________________________________.

[Domokun]

Scooby snacks all round!

 

Uhhhhhh....Rrrrooooood one Rrrrrraggy!

[Domokun]

All well and good looking at looking at over a couple dozen games.

 

But as JR said look at the teams we have played. To be honest I reckon a competent manager would of had us easily in the top six.

 

I may be being a tad harsh. But I don't like Frail as a manager.

I'd rather have this wee guy. I think he could do a real good job (if given full control, of course.)

 

[bighalders]

As there seems to be a large number of people unhappy with the thought of Frail as Manager next season, can someone tell me if a league had started at when Shaggy took supposed control, where would we have been at the time of the split.

 

I ask this to see how good / bad an option he actually is.

 

If this is boring then sorry!

 

You may have a point however we were promised by the lying sorry Vlad regime that we would get a manager that would have the right pedigree and experience to ensure we can challenge at the top of the premier in scotland and in europe this hasnt happened since october 2005 so the fans quite rightly expect better than the pedigree of frail

[Flogel98]

The more important games in terms of testing Frail were the league games at vrs St Mirren ,home to falkirk and away to killie before the split we failed to win any of them when it was needed ,he was unable to alter our tactics to do so.

the cup games were disappointing, but the real test are the games that mattered in the league and his inexperience stood out more so in the 0-0 at home to falkirk.

 

Have to agree with this.

 

When it comes down to it, we went into the Falkirk game at home knowing if we beat them, we'd go above them into the top 6. 0-0.

 

We then went into teh Killie game knowing if we beat beat them, Falkirk would have to win on the Monday night. 0-0.

 

For me, the simple fact is that yes Frail has steadied the ship and got us some decent results but in one of massively important games, he hasn't managed to win any of them. The games above plus Mothewell and Rankgers in teh cups.

[topcat]

Have to agree with this.

 

When it comes down to it, we went into the Falkirk game at home knowing if we beat them, we'd go above them into the top 6. 0-0.

 

We then went into teh Killie game knowing if we beat beat them, Falkirk would have to win on the Monday night. 0-0.

 

For me, the simple fact is that yes Frail has steadied the ship and got us some decent results but in one of massively important games, he hasn't managed to win any of them. The games above plus Mothewell and Rankgers in the cups.

 

Surely the win at Aberdeen was "massively important" as a defeat there would have rendered the Falkirk and Killie games in practically meaningless. In fact had we failed to win any of the games we actually won it would have made the Killie game a non-event. We were constantly needing results to stay in the race the idea that only the last games were important is a fallacy.

 

It's clear that the hole we were in at new year was so deep that getting out of it and into the top half of the table by game 33 would be a huge ask (it would essentially involve keeping pace with Celtic). As it turns out there wasn't quite enough margin for error and we fell short. Both praise and frustration are justified. Like a goalkeeper who gets fingertips to a well struck penalty but fails to stop it. Frail's work in attempting to turn round the season has simultaneously been impressive and dissapointing.

 

From a statistical point of view the real conclusion to draw is "Insufficient Data" Just as it is folly to state conclusively that Burley's dismissal cost us the league it would be wrong to claim too much precision in ones assessment of Frail based on the story so far. It is however fair to say that he's not a complete Muppet and nor is he a tactical genius, There is however a huge range of assesments that are still compatible with the observed facts.

 

Bearing this in mind it is unsurprising that it's quite easy to put a positive or negative spin on the results according to one's prejudices (As has been amply demonstrated on this thread). In truth the situation is likely more mundane than it is presented as being in the bipolar hyperreality of JKB. Frail as ongoing full time manager (A prospect which I personally think wont happen) would certainly be less than ideal but it appears that it wouldn't be the complete disaster it's made out to be by some of the more excitable contributors to this forum.

[Cliffundo]

Surely the win at Aberdeen was "massively important" as a defeat there would have rendered the Falkirk and Killie games in practically meaningless. In fact had we failed to win any of the games we actually won it would have made the Killie game a non-event. We were constantly needing results to stay in the race the idea that only the last games were important is a fallacy.

 

It's clear that the hole we were in at new year was so deep that getting out of it and into the top half of the table by game 33 would be a huge ask (it would essentially involve keeping pace with Celtic). As it turns out there wasn't quite enough margin for error and we fell short. Both praise and frustration are justified. Like a goalkeeper who gets fingertips to a well struck penalty but fails to stop it. Frail's work in attempting to turn round the season has simultaneously been impressive and dissapointing.

 

From a statistical point of view the real conclusion to draw is "Insufficient Data" Just as it is folly to state conclusively that Burley's dismissal cost us the league it would be wrong to claim too much precision in ones assessment of Frail based on the story so far. It is however fair to say that he's not a complete Muppet and nor is he a tactical genius, There is however a huge range of assesments that are still compatible with the observed facts.

 

Bearing this in mind it is unsurprising that it's quite easy to put a positive or negative spin on the results according to one's prejudices (As has been amply demonstrated on this thread). In truth the situation is likely more mundane than it is presented as being in the bipolar hyperreality of JKB. Frail as ongoing full time manager (A prospect which I personally think wont happen) would certainly be less than ideal but it appears that it wouldn't be the complete disaster it's made out to be by some of the more excitable contributors to this forum.

 

sorry but it would be, he has not got a clue! he is not a manager he is a diddy! He has been a part of what has happened all season. the games we have won under him have not brought us decent football or a great tactical victory over a better football team and thats what we need, we do not have the finances to compete with the OF so we need to spend in the correct areas and that would be a good manager who knows how to punch above his weight! martin oneil did this for 5 years with Celtic.

[topcat]

Sorry to dredge this up

Because Some people on another thread still didn't get it

I figured I'd better make things clear

 

I've now got access to my database so I was able to improve it by showing how many times each team played each opponent.

If there are no brackets the team played everybody once between the 5th of Jan and 5th of April. Any variations are listed in brackets for example Rangers played Gretna twice and didn't play Motherwell who in turn played Hibs Twice.

 

Team         Pld  W  D  L Pts  F  A  GD
Rangers       11 11  0  0  33 27  5 +22(+Gretna-Motherwell)
Celtic        11  8  1  2  25 18  4 +14
Hibernian     13  7  1  5  22 19 12  +7(+Motherwell+St. Mirren)
Hearts        12  6  4  2  22 11  9  +2(+Kilmarnock)
Dundee U.     11  4  5  2  17 13  7  +6
Motherwell    11  5  2  4  17 11 10  +1(+Hibernian-Rangers)
St. Mirren    12  3  4  5  13 11 18  -7(+Hibernian)
Kilmarnock    12  3  3  6  12 12 15  -3(+Hearts)
Falkirk       11  2  5  4  11  5  7  -2
Aberdeen      11  2  3  6   9 13 23 -10
Inverness     12  2  2  8   8 13 23 -10(+Gretna)
Gretna        13  2  0 11   6 13 33 -20(+Inverness+Rangers)

 

If you Include the 2nd of January it looks like this

Team         Pld  W  D  L Pts  F  A  GD
Rangers       11 11  0  0  33 27  5 +22(+Gretna-Motherwell)
Celtic        11  8  1  2  25 18  4 +14
Hibernian     13  7  1  5  22 19 12  +7(+Motherwell+St. Mirren)
Hearts        13  6  4  3  22 12 13  -1(+Dundee U.+Kilmarnock)
Dundee U.     12  5  5  2  20 17  8  +9(+Hearts)
Motherwell    11  5  2  4  17 11 10  +1(+Hibernian-Rangers)
Falkirk       12  3  5  4  14  6  7  -1(+Kilmarnock)
St. Mirren    12  3  4  5  13 11 18  -7(+Hibernian)
Kilmarnock    13  3  3  7  12 12 16  -4(+Falkirk+Hearts)
Aberdeen      12  3  3  6  12 14 23  -9(+Inverness)
Inverness     13  2  2  9   8 13 24 -11(+Aberdeen+Gretna)
Gretna        13  2  0 11   6 13 33 -20(+Inverness+Rangers)

 

Which shows two things

Firstly that I made a mistake when I said the goal difference gap got smaller by including the 2nd. Obviously it got bigger.

 

Secondly that aside from in comparison with Gretna we aren't flattered by having had less games against the Old Firm.

[maroontothemax]

I'd rather have this wee guy. I think he could do a real good job (if given full control, of course.)

 

 

Dosn't look like it's going to happen, I read he's been linked with the Man City job as they are looking for a puppet manager