***The Official Betting Thread***

[IronJambo]

On 27/08/2019 at 16:31, belly said:

Dutching, does it work and is it worth the risk?

Dutching to create an arb? You'd need to be keeping substantial money in several bookie accounts to make it work otherwise you'll be furiously funding random accounts when you need to place your bets and by the time the money's all in the right place the odds could easily have changed. You then have a loss instead of a small win. It's also obvious to the bookie what you're doing as you're betting odd amounts. £2k/£3k could easily be needed to make £20.

Arbs are best done through exchanges (Betfair, smarkets etc). Even then, the bookie knows the odds and you won't get away with it long before your accounts are severely limited.

 

Edit: apologies, I've just seen when you posted this and it was a long time ago. I've been deliberately avoiding this thread. 

Edited October 21, 2019 by IronJambo

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

22 minutes ago, IronJambo said:

Dutching to create an arb? You'd need to be keeping substantial money in several bookie accounts to make it work otherwise you'll be furiously funding random accounts when you need to place your bets and by the time the money's all in the right place the odds could easily have changed. You then have a loss instead of a small win. It's also obvious to the bookie what you're doing as you're betting odd amounts. £2k/£3k could easily be needed to make £20.

Arbs are best done through exchanges (Betfair, smarkets etc). Even then, the bookie knows the odds and you won't get away with it long before your accounts are severely limited.

 

Edit: apologies, I've just seen when you posted this and it was a long time ago. I've been deliberately avoiding this thread. 

 

not sure the official definition of dutching but I was thinking it could be done without arbing - instead of betting one horse each way having a punt on two horses to spread the risk in an attempt to lose slower 😬

 

seeing you mentioned it I was wondering why you've been deliberately avoiding the thread? i think I would one of many enjoying your mainly ups and some downs on the thread

[IronJambo]

30 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

not sure the official definition of dutching but I was thinking it could be done without arbing - instead of betting one horse each way having a punt on two horses to spread the risk in an attempt to lose slower 😬

 

seeing you mentioned it I was wondering why you've been deliberately avoiding the thread? i think I would one of many enjoying your mainly ups and some downs on the thread

I would see dutching as covering every outcome. So every horse. I used to do it now and again with horses when the overround was tight and the losses on spreading a couple of hundred over 6 or 7 runners could be kept down. I was doing 5 or 6 races a day, basically hoping for a winner to have drifted and get a good payout on bog. I'm not sure there's any other way to make money by covering the whole field. As an aside, I've had a bot placing £2 each way bets for me for around 40 days. I just turn the laptop on and let it run all day. It makes money, but it's based on maths, not form or anything like that. Anything but actually, I've got it set to only take odds between 7/1 and 39/1.

 

I think I've been avoiding here as I'm uncomfortable with the concept of people copying my bets. Copying me will lose you money. I only make money because I'm not using my own cash to place my trebles and invariably only need 1 in 4 to win to make four figures per month. Quite easy really. Slippery slope with your wages though and it doesn't seem fair for me to keep posting bets that are making me money but losing cash for everyone else. Gambling is bad.

 

Edit: my bot is set to and regularly backs 3 horses in the same race. Nothing wrong with taking more than one horse.

Edited October 21, 2019 by IronJambo

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

8 minutes ago, IronJambo said:

I would see dutching as covering every outcome. So every horse. I used to do it now and again with horses when the overround was tight and the losses on spreading a couple of hundred over 6 or 7 runners could be kept down. I was doing 5 or 6 races a day, basically hoping for a winner to have drifted and get a good payout on bog. I'm not sure there's any other way to make money by covering the whole field. As an aside, I've had a bot placing £2 each way bets for me for around 40 days. I just turn the laptop on and let it run all day. It makes money, but it's based on maths, not form or anything like that. Anything but actually, I've got it set to only take odds between 7/1 and 39/1.

 

I think I've been avoiding here as I'm uncomfortable with the concept of people copying my bets. Copying me will lose you money. I only make money because I'm not using my own cash to place my trebles and invariably only need 1 in 4 to win to make four figures per month. Quite easy really. Slippery slope with your wages though and it doesn't seem fair for me to keep posting bets that are making me money but losing cash for everyone else. Gambling is bad.

 

Edit: my bot is set to and regularly backs 3 horses in the same race. Nothing wrong with taking more than one horse.

 

good point regarding folk copying your bets as it does seem ur going well albeit you are saying long term you would lose unless you have a way of producing free stake money which sounds like you do

 

i take it the £2 e/w bot is s pilot at tge moment as given you obviously know the time of day 40 days is barely out the starting stalls in terms of longer term reliability 

 

as you are saying it's all about the price -selling millions of cans of juice at 95p which you bought for a £1 each will produce lots of revenue and no profits 

[IronJambo]

7 hours ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

good point regarding folk copying your bets as it does seem ur going well albeit you are saying long term you would lose unless you have a way of producing free stake money which sounds like you do

 

i take it the £2 e/w bot is s pilot at tge moment as given you obviously know the time of day 40 days is barely out the starting stalls in terms of longer term reliability 

 

as you are saying it's all about the price -selling millions of cans of juice at 95p which you bought for a £1 each will produce lots of revenue and no profits 

The e/w bot is fairly new but it's not a pilot. It principally picks up bets when the price aligns with the exchange and places the back bets for me, with no lay bet placed at all. It picks up loads of steamers. It's doing exactly how I thought it would. It's placed over 500 bets for me and is up £700 but it's not a long term system unless you've access to other people's accounts. In a relatively short time 6 of my accounts used on it have been restricted to zero pence stakes. The rest will follow.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

2 hours ago, IronJambo said:

The e/w bot is fairly new but it's not a pilot. It principally picks up bets when the price aligns with the exchange and places the back bets for me, with no lay bet placed at all. It picks up loads of steamers. It's doing exactly how I thought it would. It's placed over 500 bets for me and is up £700 but it's not a long term system unless you've access to other people's accounts. In a relatively short time 6 of my accounts used on it have been restricted to zero pence stakes. The rest will follow.

 

you must have a lot of accounts as it sounds like your smashing it

 

i remember you were on 5-folds on the football and changed to trebles presumably a risk rather than profit based decision im assuming these things are constantly evolving or is it not worth going in big time on one winning system?

[IronJambo]

3 hours ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

you must have a lot of accounts as it sounds like your smashing it

 

i remember you were on 5-folds on the football and changed to trebles presumably a risk rather than profit based decision im assuming these things are constantly evolving or is it not worth going in big time on one winning system?

I should probably still be doing the 5 folds but I'm too lazy on top of the trebles. I moved onto a new way of accumulators and only "needed" to do trebles but continued with 5 folds regardless. It's started well but I had two months in a row where I didn't make much. I moved from doing two or 3 £25/£50 bets per week to 4x £150 bets. It's quite hard to pick out 20 sides a week that should smash it.  My first month of trebles made almost £2k. I've had better and worse months since.

 

Switching to trebles just gives more regular, but smaller wins. The truth is that the outcome is the same financially but it's easier on the mind. 

 

 

[Victorian]

Over 2.5 goals 8-fold.   90/1.   23/24 goals.

 

 

My bets can think for themselves and they think "GIRFUY".

[Mr Elwood P]

2 hours ago, Victorian said:

Over 2.5 goals 8-fold.   90/1.   23/24 goals.

 

 

My bets can think for themselves and they think "GIRFUY".

 

Who let you down?

[Mr Elwood P]

On 22/10/2019 at 12:52, IronJambo said:

I should probably still be doing the 5 folds but I'm too lazy on top of the trebles. I moved onto a new way of accumulators and only "needed" to do trebles but continued with 5 folds regardless. It's started well but I had two months in a row where I didn't make much. I moved from doing two or 3 £25/£50 bets per week to 4x £150 bets. It's quite hard to pick out 20 sides a week that should smash it.  My first month of trebles made almost £2k. I've had better and worse months since.

 

Switching to trebles just gives more regular, but smaller wins. The truth is that the outcome is the same financially but it's easier on the mind. 

 

 

 

Fancy posting your trebles for this weekend?

[Victorian]

8 hours ago, Mr Elwood P said:

 

Who let you down?

 

Aberystwyth vs Connah's Quay.

[Marvin]

Everton, Bournemouth, Birmingham, Huddersfield, Bristol Rovers and Newport 320.51/1 boosted to 470.15/1.

I did have County to beat the Shite but think greed got the better of me so removed it from my slip.

[IronJambo]

13 hours ago, Mr Elwood P said:

 

Fancy posting your trebles for this weekend?

Since you asked. Small value this weekend and one has already started. Ones a 4 fold to make it worth it as well.

 

Saturday

 

BEIJING GUOAN V tianjin 1.30
HAJDUK SPLIT V no slaven 1.25
FALKIRK V Clyde 1.50
2.44

 

Lecce v JUVENTUS 1.28
INTER V Parma 1.28
ATLETICO V Bilbao 1.66
2.76

 

Sunday

 

PSG V Marseille 1.22
Spal v NAPOLI 1.40
RB SALZBURG V rapid Vienna 1.28
YOUNG BOYS V thun 1.28
2.83

 

LIVERPOOL V spurs 1.50
AJAX V feyenoord 1.28
RANGERS V Motherwell 1.22
2.36

[Victorian]

Currently in a 250/1 five fold over 3.5 goals.   16/20 goals with 25+ mins to go.    Got 10 times stake back on a cashout with 50% bet value left on.    

 

Bet it still doesn't win.

Edited October 26, 2019 by Victorian

[IronJambo]

16 hours ago, Victorian said:

Currently in a 250/1 five fold over 3.5 goals.   16/20 goals with 25+ mins to go.    Got 10 times stake back on a cashout with 50% bet value left on.    

 

Bet it still doesn't win.

How did it go? That's a pretty bold bet!

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, IronJambo said:

How did it go? That's a pretty bold bet!

 

Not really.  I do these long odds,  small stake bets as an interest.  Never left to a full payout.    They are for taking out part cashouts.    Needed 4 goals with over 25 mins left but got just 1 more.

[Mr Elwood P]

On 26/10/2019 at 13:31, IronJambo said:

Since you asked. Small value this weekend and one has already started. Ones a 4 fold to make it worth it as well.

 

Saturday

 

BEIJING GUOAN V tianjin 1.30
HAJDUK SPLIT V no slaven 1.25
FALKIRK V Clyde 1.50
2.44

 

Lecce v JUVENTUS 1.28
INTER V Parma 1.28
ATLETICO V Bilbao 1.66
2.76

 

Sunday

 

PSG V Marseille 1.22
Spal v NAPOLI 1.40
RB SALZBURG V rapid Vienna 1.28
YOUNG BOYS V thun 1.28
2.83

 

LIVERPOOL V spurs 1.50
AJAX V feyenoord 1.28
RANGERS V Motherwell 1.22
2.36

Much did you get back for the two winners? Lucky lad with Salzburg and Rangers. What bankers you done this weekend?

[IronJambo]

9 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said:

Much did you get back for the two winners? Lucky lad with Salzburg and Rangers. What bankers you done this weekend?

Napoli drew with Spal so it was just the one winner, £204 or so. Had 3 win midweek though so it was a good week.

Nothing on this week as I've been on annual leave with my boy for half term. Apparently it's frowned upon to take a 5 year old to the bookies.

I'll probably have 7 trebles on from the champions League through next weekend

Edited November 1, 2019 by IronJambo

[Mr Elwood P]

21 minutes ago, IronJambo said:

Napoli drew with Spal so it was just the one winner, £204 or so. Had 3 win midweek though so it was a good week.

Nothing on this week as I've been on annual leave with my boy for half term. Apparently it's frowned upon to take a 5 year old to the bookies.

I'll probably have 7 trebles on from the champions League through next weekend

No worries mate. Stick up your bets next week If that’s ok and hope you have a good time with your boy.

[IronJambo]

13 hours ago, Mr Elwood P said:

No worries mate. Stick up your bets next week If that’s ok and hope you have a good time with your boy.

I won't be putting them on until Monday but I'll be having:

 

NAPOLI V RB Salzburg

LYON V benfica

VALENCIA V Lille

@6.4 currently with bet365. Odds suggest it won't win but Napoli won in Salzburg and whilst benfica beat Lyon at home they don't travel well in Europe and are also out of their league in the CL. It's a young team and their coach is probably a bit out of his depth in Europe having been promoted from the youth team last season.

 

REAL MADRID V galatasaray

red star v SPURS

Atalanta v MAN CITY

@2.64 with bet365 just now

Edited November 2, 2019 by IronJambo

[Mr Elwood P]

9 minutes ago, IronJambo said:

I won't be putting them on until Monday but I'll be having:

 

NAPOLI V RB Salzburg

LYON V benfica

VALENCIA V Lille

@6.4 currently with bet365. Odds suggest it won't win but Napoli won in Salzburg and whilst benfica beat Lyon at home they don't travel well in Europe and are also out of their league in the CL. It's a young team and their coach is probably a bit out of his depth in Europe having been promoted from the youth team last season.

 

 

Sounds good. Champions League is quite often quite safe for backing favourites. Famous last words ....

[Victorian]

Bit of a change of fortunes.  £100 off a btts during the week and £50 today.    It's actually possible to win these it turns out.   I had forgotten.

[Victorian]

11.00/11.15 matches.    9-fold over 2.5 goals.    Took x10 of stake out in cash-outs but ended with 26/27 goals.    Staggering how often these end up 1 goal short.

[IronJambo]

LAZIO V celtic 
Astana v AZ ALKMAAR
MAN U V partisan Belgrade
@3.41

[Mr Elwood P]

On 03/11/2019 at 13:00, Victorian said:

11.00/11.15 matches.    9-fold over 2.5 goals.    Took x10 of stake out in cash-outs but ended with 26/27 goals.    Staggering how often these end up 1 goal short.

 

Who let you down?

[Victorian]

56 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said:

 

Who let you down?

 

Denizlispor.   Just noticed 2 of the selections were over 1.5.     So 24 out of 25 it was.

 

Had another 5-fold over 1.5 home goals that went down as a result of a late penalty missed by Feirense.    50/1 full value of bet.   No cash outs.

 

Savage luck.

[Mr Elwood P]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

Denizlispor.   Just noticed 2 of the selections were over 1.5.     So 24 out of 25 it was.

 

Had another 5-fold over 1.5 home goals that went down as a result of a late penalty missed by Feirense.    50/1 full value of bet.   No cash outs.

 

Savage luck.

West Brom conceded a 94th min pen to do me out of £265 from £5 last weekend ...

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Mr Elwood P said:

West Brom conceded a 94th min pen to do me out of £265 from £5 last weekend ...

 

Howling.    These kind of boot in the goolies make you want to give up.

[Mr Elwood P]

On 02/11/2019 at 12:09, IronJambo said:

I won't be putting them on until Monday but I'll be having:

 

NAPOLI V RB Salzburg

LYON V benfica

VALENCIA V Lille

@6.4 currently with bet365. Odds suggest it won't win but Napoli won in Salzburg and whilst benfica beat Lyon at home they don't travel well in Europe and are also out of their league in the CL. It's a young team and their coach is probably a bit out of his depth in Europe having been promoted from the youth team last season.

 

REAL MADRID V galatasaray

red star v SPURS

Atalanta v MAN CITY

@2.64 with bet365 just now

Unlucky with Napoli! Had loads of chances as well. Not sure about Spurs on the bottom bet? 

[Mr Elwood P]

On 04/11/2019 at 18:05, Victorian said:

 

Howling.    These kind of boot in the goolies make you want to give up.

Then West Brom beat my BTTS last night by not conceding! That’s them on the ***** list ...

[IronJambo]

37 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said:

Unlucky with Napoli! Had loads of chances as well. Not sure about Spurs on the bottom bet? 

A different night and they'd have scored 3.

 

Spurs beat red star 5-0 a couple of weeks ago so we'll see how well they travel for this one.

[Mr Elwood P]

22 hours ago, IronJambo said:

A different night and they'd have scored 3.

 

Spurs beat red star 5-0 a couple of weeks ago so we'll see how well they travel for this one.

Think Spurs and Madrid are safe!

[IronJambo]

36 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said:

Think Spurs and Madrid are safe!

City didn't let Sterling take the penalty unfortunately.

[Victorian]

Very late Atletico goal brought up a small win on a 3-fold BTTS.    Profit halved by taking my stake back out at 4 out of 6 goals.   Pity.    

[Mr Elwood P]

6 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Very late Atletico goal brought up a small win on a 3-fold BTTS.    Profit halved by taking my stake back out at 4 out of 6 goals.   Pity.    

 

Red Star bust my 5 fold BTTS!

 

Got a six fold alive, three to go tomorrow:

 

Gladbach v Roma

Braga v Besiktas 

Wolfsburg v Gent 

 

Sure somebody will make a mess of it ...

 

21 minutes ago, IronJambo said:

City didn't let Sterling take the penalty unfortunately.

 

Terrible pen ...

[Victorian]

The BTTSs are going well in the 20.00 matches.

 

[Victorian]

Thought there were no goals.   Bet365 is wonky showing only 1.    There's a few.

 

[smiler]

Bet365 is broken 😀

Are they covered if I chose Man U, Espanyol etc to score first? 

They're offering a price... 

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, smiler said:

Bet365 is broken 😀

Are they covered if I chose Man U, Espanyol etc to score first? 

They're offering a price... 

 

Seems they're untangling it now.

[Mr Elwood P]

49 minutes ago, Victorian said:

The BTTSs are going well in the 20.00 matches.

 

Same happened to me....

[IronJambo]

Full disclaimer as I don't have these in for a couple of reasons but they were my picks for the weekend. No idea the odds but they'll be quite low, although a little higher than evens.

 

CHELSEA V crystal palace

LEEDS v Blackburn

Brest v PSG

 

LILLE V Metz

Hertha Berlin v RB LEIPZIG

INTER V Verona

 

NAPOLI V Genoa

Santa Clara v BENFICA

KASHIWA REYSOL V Kagoshima utd

 

COVE v Stirling Albion

JUVENTUS V Milan

AZ v FC Emmen

 

[Mr Elwood P]

40 minutes ago, IronJambo said:

Full disclaimer as I don't have these in for a couple of reasons but they were my picks for the weekend. No idea the odds but they'll be quite low, although a little higher than evens.

 

CHELSEA V crystal palace

LEEDS v Blackburn

Brest v PSG

 

LILLE V Metz

Hertha Berlin v RB LEIPZIG

INTER V Verona

 

NAPOLI V Genoa

Santa Clara v BENFICA

KASHIWA REYSOL V Kagoshima utd

 

COVE v Stirling Albion

JUVENTUS V Milan

AZ v FC Emmen

 

All look decent. I fancy Leicester to beat Arsenal today. 1/1 currently ...

[IronJambo]

Leicester aren't a bad shout. Doing really well just now and at home. Arsenal are very average.

[Victorian]

2 goals short in the Czech game for a 10/1 payoot on the over 2.5s.     Bet it pies me.

 

[Victorian]

Albania, Czech, Serbia, ROI.     Only had a fiver which was going to be a tenner.

 

Was thinking about an over 3.5 line instead,     which is only 1 short.     

 

All wins welcome.

[IronJambo]

ENGLAND v Montenegro 1.05

Northern Ireland v NETHERLANDS 1.4
Cyprus v SCOTLAND 1.95
@2.87

 

Russia v BELGIUM 1.95
COVE V brechin 1.16
Kosovo V ENGLAND 1.60
@3.29

 

Not so sure about the 2nd one anymore as England don't have anything to play for now. Slim pickings in international week if you're also looking for value.

[Victorian]

Started getting a few wins so tonight's magic picks are:

 

BTTS   (52/1)   19.00hours

Bourg-Peronnas

Le Havre

FC Dordrecht

FC Eindhoven

FC Oss

Scotland U21

St.Vincents & Grenadines

OH Leuven

 

BTTS bankers   (6/1)   19.00hours

Bourg-Peronnas

FC Eindhoven

FC Oss

St.Vincents & Grenadines

 

Over 2.5 / BTTS   (28/1)   19.45/20.00

Switzerland 2.5

Raith 2.5

Carrick Rangers 2.5

Connah's Quay 2.5

France U21 2.5

Bosnia btts

Romania btts

 

[Mr Elwood P]

On 15/11/2019 at 07:34, IronJambo said:

ENGLAND v Montenegro 1.05

Northern Ireland v NETHERLANDS 1.4
Cyprus v SCOTLAND 1.95
@2.87

 

Russia v BELGIUM 1.95
COVE V brechin 1.16
Kosovo V ENGLAND 1.60
@3.29

 

Not so sure about the 2nd one anymore as England don't have anything to play for now. Slim pickings in international week if you're also looking for value.

 

Second one coulda been a -2 acca. Sailed in. Unlucky with the top bet. 

[IronJambo]

2 hours ago, Mr Elwood P said:

 

Second one coulda been a -2 acca. Sailed in. Unlucky with the top bet. 

2 wins out of the last 3 bets is good enough for me (I tagged Man U onto AZ and Juve last Sunday). Onto next weekend 😁

[Victorian]

Nice.  Scored a wee 11/2 odds 5-fold on the over 1.5s / 2.5s tonight.     Wasted a bit by covering on the last goal needed by ROI with 10 mins to go.