Hooray for Anti Vlad scaremongering!

[Dr. Bapswent]

http://www.hearts.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=125252

 

ollowing on from Specs Haver's thought-provoking suggestions that football could be about to join our financial markets in recession, I'd like to pose another hypothetical scenario in relation to this: what would happen to Hearts if Vladimir Romanov's bank went bust?

 

You might think that it's an unlikely scenario, but then given what's happened at the likes of Lehman Brothers this week, we really shouldn't be surprised by anything like this in the world of

finance at the moment.

 

So.......what would actually happen as far as Hearts were concerned if the bank that effectively 'owns' all of the club's debt, Ukio Bankas, went bust? Would it be silly to suggest that it might actually be a good thing for the club, given that this could effectively see the debt completely wiped out with no threat of the bank suddenly transferring it back our way, as many fear may happen if Romanov decides to pack his bags? It could well be very silly, but to be honest I don't have the in-depth knowledge in this field to answer that for sure, but I'd have thought it would be at least a possibility.

 

I'm quite sure that Vladimir Romanov would continue to be a very rich man even if this did happen - he's a clever enough guy so you'd have to imagine that he'll have his finances well dispersed and looked after - but I do wonder if this eventuality would also present an opportunity for another buyer to purchase Hearts on the cheap, too. I suppose it would depend on Romanov's position at the time i.e. would he have enough cash to continue retaining a Scottish football club as his play-thing, or would he simply be determined to sell whatever assets he had left to raise some emergency cash, etc? Again, without full knowledge of all the details in relation to who owns what and how much, it's impossible for me to say, but it's certainly intriguing......and potentially worrying!

 

As I said at the start of the article, this is a very hypothetical situation, but given the current climate and the fact that Hearts' owner is a renowned banker (sorry - slight typo there!), I thought it would be worth floating the suggestion to see what any resident experts out there made of it..........

[jamboinglasgow]

that should qualify under hobonomics, the bank going bust will mean we will get our debt wiped out and Vlad would still be rich?!?

[davieholt]

tosser

[KPAL]

Maybe Dunfermline will be the loser in all of this.....

[Frankenstein Jambo.]

erse

[redm]

"Again, without full knowledge of all the details in relation to who owns what and how much, it's impossible for me to say, but it's certainly intriguing......and potentially worrying!"

 

In other words...I have no idea what the feck I'm talking about but I figure it might be slightly controversial and could appeal to the hysterics so I'm going to write it anyway and hope for the best.

 

Deary me. That's definitely what you call scraping the barrel.

[Acey]

given the current climate and the fact that Hearts' owner is a renowned banker (sorry - slight typo there!)

 

I congratulate you on your forthcoming Pulitzer Prize.

[ToadKiller Dog]

I am going to speculate on something i know nothing about also ,what if the bank of vlad is doing ok and swallows up struggling lithuanian banks to become some sort of baltic super bank ,where for hearts then or what if one of the mad scientists/witch doctors that work in Vlads seceret lab discover a way to cloan miko so we can have a thousand strong miko army?. is that something we should worry about ?.

[loveofthegame]

Its not really anti-vlad scaremongering is it?! If anything its a positive piece on the possibility of what could happen if UKIO was to go under. I don't know the ins and outs though so don't know what would happen if this was to occur.

 

Surely a bit on Hearts being completely and utterly ****ed if UKIO was to go under would be considered 'scaremongering' - this article if anything is the opposite.

 

Give the guy a break, he's only put up a hypothetical situation on his own website and openly asks for the opinions of those more in the know.

[Lovecraft]

[Lovecraft]

I am just hypothesizing on the hypothesis by the author of the article and would like to put forward my own thought that they are hyperthetical and theoretical, this making the creator of this document nothing more than a scaremongering syllogist.

 

I.e. a Bawbag.

 

Hypothetically, of course.

[MrH]

I congratulate you on your forthcoming Pulitzer Prize.

 

Thank you ;o)

[Jammy T]

In the current financial circumstances its a valid debate point

 

It isnt even anti-Vlad.

 

Agenda driven OP IMO.

 

But there is another thread debating this for that particular debate somewhere

[Dr. Bapswent]

In the current financial circumstances its a valid debate point

 

It isnt even anti-Vlad.

 

Agenda driven OP IMO.

 

But there is another thread debating this for that particular debate somewhere

 

Really?

 

And what would that be?

 

I think its more of an agenda driven article.

[Jammy T]

Really?

 

And what would that be?

 

I think its more of an agenda driven article.

 

OK, explain why

 

1. it is anti-Vlad, and

 

2. it is scaremongering

 

And regarding 2 the context must be the week that saw the biggest insolvency of a company in history - which company was a bank, and in the context of the fact that 1000s of peoples jobs were put at risk as a result of the biggest bank merger in UK history etc etc not to mention the fact that the Russian markets were suspended mid-trading for 2 days in a row to stop the carnage going on and the govt there was forced to throw $44bn at its finance markets

[MrH]

Really?

 

And what would that be?

 

I think its more of an agenda driven article.

 

It wasn't an agenda-driven article at all, mate. It was simply something that someone asked me my opinion on last night - we were talking about Lehmans, HBos, etc and then realised "hang on - our football club are practically owned by a bank", which got us thinking about what might happen if they were in trouble, too.

 

There was no more to it than that.

[Dr. Bapswent]

It wasn't an agenda-driven article at all, mate. It was simply something that someone asked me my opinion on last night - we were talking about Lehmans, HBos, etc and then realised "hang on - our football club are practically owned by a bank", which got us thinking about what might happen if they were in trouble, too.

 

There was no more to it than that.

 

No worries.

 

Fair enough.

[loveofthegame]

Really?

 

And what would that be?

 

I think its more of an agenda driven article.

 

There is no agenda in the article. Its just an attempt at discussing a relevant topical issue. It certainly is in no way anti-Vlad or about scaremongering.

 

Edit: Author has explained and you've accepted. Ignore.

[ToadKiller Dog]

Is the bank of vlad not part of the Baltic stock exchange and not Russia,and is not the majority of hearts shares owned by the ubig group and not the bank ?.

have not a clue what is happening in the baltic market or how the romanovs businesses function.

 

I would say the renowned bannker typo adds to it being a speculative non fact based anti vlad blog,which is not untypical of the vital site ,there was one on there a while back(dont know who posted it) close to accusing the romanovs of match fixing .

 

QUICK EDIT ,

 

mrH I appreciate you did not mean it to be read that way ,but its how it read to me ,i dont mean any insult to you personally

[Mon]

Things can't be that good for Ukio since their rating has gone down. Surely not a good sign:

 

Rating agency Standard & Poor's said on August 26th that it had revised its outlook on Lithuanian AB Ukio Bankas to negative from stable.

 

At the same time, the 'BB' long-term ratings and 'B' short-term ratings on the bank were affirmed.

 

The outlook revision on Ukio reflects what S&P believes is "the bank's heightened credit risks arising from uncertain economic prospects in Lithuania where the bank operates."

 

"In addition to the deteriorating economic conditions, we believe that Ukio's credit risks have increased because the bank has experienced very high loan growth in the past 12 months in an untested operating environment that is exposed to macroeconomic overheating," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst, Miguel Pintado.

 

"Standard & Poor's considers that Ukio is exposed to high credit risk through its loan portfolio growth of over 100% in the last 18 months. This is well above the overall Lithuanian market lending growth rate, and most of the loans are to the riskier small and midsize enterprises and retail leasing sectors."

 

Although asset quality indicators remain at "relatively comfortable" levels, the first six months of 2008 have already seen a deterioration, with nonperforming loans increasing, S&P noted.

 

Standard & Poor's considers that Ukio is likely to face increased pressure on its asset quality as the economic conditions in Lithuania deteriorate. The outlook also factors in the expectation that Ukio will be able to maintain its relatively good financial performance and garnering of market shares in core business lines, while maintaining capital levels.

 

"The outlook could revert to stable if our concerns over the operating environment abate and the bank's asset quality proves resilient while it continues to deliver sustained profitability and strengthen its commercial and financial position. Conversely, a weakening financial profile or operating environment, contributing to higher credit or market risks, could put downward pressure on the ratings," S&P said.

[jamcow1]

the op is rite its a viable statement to make given the way things are at the moment.

 

if ukio was to go under i imagine hearts would bein pretty good shape as the debt would b wiped, certainly woldnt be any worse off!

 

and what if during this crisis, ukio does manage to expand itself by buying up companies and assets from others who cant weather the storm. now im no expert but over the next few months or however long it will last i think you will see this happening(ie all the smaller or struggling companies being eveloped by big multinational corp.)

[Jammy T]

Things can't be that good for Ukio since their rating has gone down. Surely not a good sign:

 

Rating agency Standard & Poor's said on August 26th that it had revised its outlook on Lithuanian AB Ukio Bankas to negative from stable.

 

At the same time, the 'BB' long-term ratings and 'B' short-term ratings on the bank were affirmed.

 

The outlook revision on Ukio reflects what S&P believes is "the bank's heightened credit risks arising from uncertain economic prospects in Lithuania where the bank operates."

 

"In addition to the deteriorating economic conditions, we believe that Ukio's credit risks have increased because the bank has experienced very high loan growth in the past 12 months in an untested operating environment that is exposed to macroeconomic overheating," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst, Miguel Pintado.

 

"Standard & Poor's considers that Ukio is exposed to high credit risk through its loan portfolio growth of over 100% in the last 18 months. This is well above the overall Lithuanian market lending growth rate, and most of the loans are to the riskier small and midsize enterprises and retail leasing sectors."

 

Although asset quality indicators remain at "relatively comfortable" levels, the first six months of 2008 have already seen a deterioration, with nonperforming loans increasing, S&P noted.

 

Standard & Poor's considers that Ukio is likely to face increased pressure on its asset quality as the economic conditions in Lithuania deteriorate. The outlook also factors in the expectation that Ukio will be able to maintain its relatively good financial performance and garnering of market shares in core business lines, while maintaining capital levels.

 

"The outlook could revert to stable if our concerns over the operating environment abate and the bank's asset quality proves resilient while it continues to deliver sustained profitability and strengthen its commercial and financial position. Conversely, a weakening financial profile or operating environment, contributing to higher credit or market risks, could put downward pressure on the ratings," S&P said.

 

And in one educated and factually accurate statement, you put all the "experts" elsewhere to the sword.

 

Thank the lord for intelligent and resourceful JKB-ers

 

Standard & Poors = Anti Vlad scaremongerers

 

[MrH]

Is the bank of vlad not part of the Baltic stock exchange and not Russia,and is not the majority of hearts shares owned by the ubig group and not the bank ?.

have not a clue what is happening in the baltic market or how the romanovs businesses function.

 

I would say the renowned bannker typo adds to it being a speculative non fact based anti vlad blog,which is not untypical of the vital site ,there was one on there a while back(dont know who posted it) close to accusing the romanovs of match fixing .

 

QUICK EDIT ,

 

mrH I appreciate you did not mean it to be read that way ,but its how it read to me ,i dont mean any insult to you personally

 

That's ok mate - no offence taken!

 

There is really no anti-Vlad or anti-anything agenda on the site....well - ok, there's maybe the odd piece of anti-Old Firm stuff but you can surely let me away with that?!

 

We have written articles heavily criticising VR in the past when we've felt it was justified, but by the same token we have also praised him at times too. It can be the case that sometimes people will read more than one article by the same person having a go at the same person, and they can then take that to mean that there's an agenda there. Sometimes that can be true, but not always. In my case there probably have been more articles criticising VR than not, but generally I think you'll find that most Hearts fans' views have gone that way in the last couple of years.

 

I'll take this as constructive criticism though, so thanks for that......!

[loveofthegame]

Things can't be that good for Ukio since their rating has gone down. Surely not a good sign:

 

Rating agency Standard & Poor's said on August 26th that it had revised its outlook on Lithuanian AB Ukio Bankas to negative from stable.

 

At the same time, the 'BB' long-term ratings and 'B' short-term ratings on the bank were affirmed.

 

The outlook revision on Ukio reflects what S&P believes is "the bank's heightened credit risks arising from uncertain economic prospects in Lithuania where the bank operates."

 

"In addition to the deteriorating economic conditions, we believe that Ukio's credit risks have increased because the bank has experienced very high loan growth in the past 12 months in an untested operating environment that is exposed to macroeconomic overheating," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst, Miguel Pintado.

 

"Standard & Poor's considers that Ukio is exposed to high credit risk through its loan portfolio growth of over 100% in the last 18 months. This is well above the overall Lithuanian market lending growth rate, and most of the loans are to the riskier small and midsize enterprises and retail leasing sectors."

 

Although asset quality indicators remain at "relatively comfortable" levels, the first six months of 2008 have already seen a deterioration, with nonperforming loans increasing, S&P noted.

 

Standard & Poor's considers that Ukio is likely to face increased pressure on its asset quality as the economic conditions in Lithuania deteriorate. The outlook also factors in the expectation that Ukio will be able to maintain its relatively good financial performance and garnering of market shares in core business lines, while maintaining capital levels.

 

"The outlook could revert to stable if our concerns over the operating environment abate and the bank's asset quality proves resilient while it continues to deliver sustained profitability and strengthen its commercial and financial position. Conversely, a weakening financial profile or operating environment, contributing to higher credit or market risks, could put downward pressure on the ratings," S&P said.

 

 

I hardly understand a word of that and its still worrying...

[ToadKiller Dog]

And in one educated and factually accurate statement, you put all the "experts" elsewhere to the sword.

 

Thank the lord for intelligent and resourceful JKB-ers

 

Standard & Poors = Anti Vlad scaremongerers

 

 

and the ukios response ,hints that there practice is more in line with main land european bank practices which so far have not taken such a big a hit as the anglocentric banks.

 

 

 

 

News

Standard & Poor’s confirmed ratings assigned to Ūkio bankas

 

The international rating agency Standard & Poor’s confirmed ratings previously assigned to Ūkio bankas. The ratings assigned to Ūkio bankas have not changed: the Bank was assigned positive ‘BB’ long-term and ‘B’ short-term counterparty credit ratings. The outlook of Ūkio bankas rating change was changed from stable to negative.

 

The change of Standard & Poor’s rating outlook was preconditioned by the country’s general macroeconomic situation and the Bank’s growth. The Agency has positively evaluated the Bank’s capitalisation and growing assets, which amounted to LTL 4.51 billion at the end of the year, as well as the market share it takes (7.6 percent). The Agency also emphasised a positive effect of the real estate transaction in Moscow.

 

“Ūkio bankas lending policy is based on the principles of conservatism. The Bank continues planning the actions of its development and intends to strengthen the base of its statutory capital. We plan to further be active in creating new banking products that meet the conditions of the financial market as well as the needs of our clients,” Edita Karpavičienė, chairwoman of Ūkio bankas Board, said.

 

During the 1st half-year of 2008 Ūkio bankas earned LTL 50.6 million in net unaudited profit, i. e. 1.6 percent more when compared to the same period of 2007 (LTL 49.8 million).

 

During the 1st half-year of 2008 Ūkio bankas assets grew by LTL 205 million, showing a 5 percent increase, and at the end of the half-year totalled LTL 4.22 billion. During six months of 2008 the Bank’s deposit and LC portfolio increased 7 percent from LTL 2.73 billion to LTL 2.94 billion, and the Bank’s loan portfolio in the net value jumped 13 percent from LTL 2.36 billion to LTL 2.68 billion during the first six months of 2008. The number of the Bank’s active clients grew by 10.9 thousand, i. e. 9 percent, during the first six months of 2008.

 

i would imagine a lot of banks outputs would be in the negative just now

[Jammy T]

and the ukios response ,hints that there practice is more in line with main land european bank practices which so far have not taken such a big a hit as the anglocentric banks.

 

The the usual garbage I would expect from a Vlad controlled company

 

Bottom line is your S&P rating goes down and NOBODY wants to provide money for you

 

Check AIG as a classic example. Actually a very sound business with lots of successful sub-sid business operations but it was the downgrade by S&P alone which prompted its near collapse

 

No money from third party sources and you are in the soapy.

 

Mind you maybe Vlad is so well connected and UKIO is so integral to Lithuania's economy that it would be "too big to fail"

[Jammy T]

No worries.

 

Fair enough.

 

Did you read it, or did you make "assumptions"?

[loveofthegame]

Whilst, the current climate for UKIO will be tougher than normal. I really don't see them having too much to worry about, from the outside looking in.

 

A huge issue for the banks in difficulty, at the moment, is the collapse of the property market in the States and the effects that has caused. This will not have had a direct impact on UKIO, they operate in a very different market. Though undoubtably there will be ripple effect, but nothing major I would imagine in relation that other institutes are facing.

 

With regard to what would happen if UKIO went bust. Surely, the debt would just be sold on, therefore Hearts would have new lenders. Who I would doubt very much are as 'understanding' as Vlad.

 

Very true, although the debt would be sold on at a loss so at bare minimum it would decrease on what it currently is.

[Seymour M Hersh]

The the usual garbage I would expect from a Vlad controlled company

 

Bottom line is your S&P rating goes down and NOBODY wants to provide money for you

 

Check AIG as a classic example. Actually a very sound business with lots of successful sub-sid business operations but it was the downgrade by S&P alone which prompted its near collapse

 

No money from third party sources and you are in the soapy.

 

Mind you maybe Vlad is so well connected and UKIO is so integral to Lithuania's economy that it would be "too big to fail"

 

Any credibility you had there just disappeared with your blinkered hate-ridden statement. Give up supporting Hearts ffs.

[K1874M]

What a load of pash.

[Eldar Hadzimehmedovic]

Any credibility you had there just disappeared with your blinkered hate-ridden statement. Give up supporting Hearts ffs.

 

This is a truly bizarre entanglement of Hearts the football club and the business dealings of the man who owns it.

 

Serious question, how do you make the leap that somebody should stop supporting Hearts because they're highly critical of Romanov's business dealings?

[BlackJAC?]

why are people coming oot with stuff like "our debt will disapear if Ukio goes bust"?.

 

The way I understand things is if my bank were to go bust it would sell my mortgage on at a loss, but I'd still owe the full amount. so basically my debt doesn't change and it's only the bank that's hit, not my mortgage.

 

Hell, I know next to nothing about finance, so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but people thinking our debt will just disappear or decrease seems rather naive on their part.

[Drylaw Hearts]

Serious question, how do you make the leap that somebody should stop supporting Hearts because they're highly critical of Romanov's business dealings?

 

[jlo2]

why are people coming oot with stuff like "our debt will disapear if Ukio goes bust"?.

 

The way I understand things is if my bank were to go bust it would sell my mortgage on at a loss, but I'd still owe the full amount. so basically my debt doesn't change and it's only the bank that's hit, not my mortgage.

 

Hell, I know next to nothing about finance, so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but people thinking our debt will just disappear or decrease seems rather naive on their part.

Not just naive but studid.

 

If you own money to one company who goes bust the debt will be transferred by the receiver to someone else who may not be as understanding about repayment terms as the orginal company.

[Jammy T]

This is a truly bizarre entanglement of Hearts the football club and the business dealings of the man who owns it.

 

Serious question, how do you make the leap that somebody should stop supporting Hearts because they're highly critical of Romanov's business dealings?

 

I'm sure its personal, so dont worry about it.

 

Lord BJ - the worldwide problem which has arisen as sparked by the property crash in US properties is because a lot of sub-prime debt has been "hidden" in debt packages which have been sold on throughout the banking system

 

So you could have a bank in eastern europe that has got some sort of relationship / ownership or impact from the fallout of the housing issue in america

[Seymour M Hersh]

This is a truly bizarre entanglement of Hearts the football club and the business dealings of the man who owns it.

 

Serious question, how do you make the leap that somebody should stop supporting Hearts because they're highly critical of Romanov's business dealings?

 

It's stopping him being objective in any way shape or form. Clearly it's making him very unhappy and for his own well-being perhaps he should consider it.

[Jammy T]

It's stopping him being objective in any way shape or form. Clearly it's making him very unhappy and for his own well-being perhaps he should consider it.

 

OK, explain Mr Psychologist?

 

This is actually a good and informative thread. Its not really a thread demanding any kind of objectivity as such. We are dealing with primarily factual information. An S&P report and credit downrating.

 

Anyway, I am not unhappy in the slightest. In fact, I have never in my life been more content and happy. You'll need to take that "Learn Psychology" book back to the shop!

[Martin_T]

The article is complete nonsense, quite simply because if Ukio were to go under, Hearts would be well and truly fecked. All assets the bank holds ownership of would be liquidated, including I'd imagine Tynecastle stadium and any playing assets. Furthermore there would be no working cash flow for Hearts to operate with.

[Jammy T]

The article is complete nonsense, quite simply because if Ukio were to go under, Hearts would be well and truly fecked. All assets the bank holds ownership of would be liquidated, including I'd imagine Tynecastle stadium and any playing assets. Furthermore there would be no working cash flow for Hearts to operate with.

 

Like wages not being paid?

[Martin_T]

Like wages not being paid?

 

If Ukio Bankas have gone bust, you'll find Tynecastle padlocked today. Ok.....

[gerald the mole]

bb

[Jammy T]

If Ukio Bankas have gone bust, you'll find Tynecastle padlocked today. Ok.....

 

Seriously though.

 

There seems to be a distinction developing which has been particularly highlighted this week. That of whether a financial institution is struggling from an insolvency point of view, or whether it is suffering from a seizure in the flow of liquid monies around the world's cashflow

 

AIG for example are not really a company that were an insolvency case, they just had an immediate need for a lot of money that they would normally have managed to get but because of the current practically unique circumstances they didnt.

 

The concern is though, without being accused of lacking objectivity hopefully, this is a time when being asset rich but cash poor could lead to devastating consequences.

 

And Romanov has always struck me as being asset rich but cash poor. He appears to have built a lot of his "wealth" on the basis of leveraging.

[Fraggle]

Whilst, the current climate for UKIO will be tougher than normal. I really don't see them having too much to worry about, from the outside looking in.

 

A huge issue for the banks in difficulty, at the moment, is the collapse of the property market in the States and the effects that has caused. This will not have had a direct impact on UKIO, they operate in a very different market. Though undoubtably there will be ripple effect, but nothing major I would imagine in relation that other institutes are facing.

 

With regard to what would happen if UKIO went bust. Surely, the debt would just be sold on, therefore Hearts would have new lenders. Who I would doubt very much are as 'understanding' as Vlad.

 

Would it though, Ukios Bankas is owned by UBIG is it not? So would it matter if UKIOS went t*ts up because Hearts debt is owed to UBIG as the parent company, and not UKIOS (which is far to small to handle a ?40million debt)?

 

Might be way off, unsure. Maybe Jammy T or Mon may be able to answer?

 

Over to you guys ......

[Jammy T]

Would it though, Ukios Bankas is owned by UBIG is it not? So would it matter if UKIOS went t*ts up because Hearts debt is owed to UBIG as the parent company, and not UKIOS (which is far to small to handle a ?40million debt)?

 

Might be way off, unsure. Maybe Jammy T or Mon may be able to answer?

 

Over to you guys ......

 

I'm not sure of the precise nature of our debt split. I think it is at least part a working overdraft with UKIO and part a debt obligation to UBIG.

 

So, if something were to happen to UKIO our long term debt position would be reliant upon what would happen to UKIO - takeover or simply death by bankruptcy.

 

The concern would be the short term position on cashflow. If we need to access the overdraft to pay our day to day costs (which I presume we do unless we are sitting on some sort of cash fund - which I presume we are not) there might be a short term problem with cash if UKIO's position is frozen by insolvency.

 

If UKIO have in actual fact been a good performing bank with a good business portfolio as we are told, but just have a short term liquidity problem I am sure they would be bought out, and life would just carry on.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I'm not sure of the precise nature of our debt split. I think it is at least part a working overdraft with UKIO and part a debt obligation to UBIG.

 

So, if something were to happen to UKIO our long term debt position would be reliant upon what would happen to UKIO - takeover or simply death by bankruptcy.

 

The concern would be the short term position on cashflow. If we need to access the overdraft to pay our day to day costs (which I presume we do unless we are sitting on some sort of cash fund - which I presume we are not) there might be a short term problem with cash if UKIO's position is frozen by insolvency.

 

If UKIO have in actual fact been a good performing bank with a good business portfolio as we are told, but just have a short term liquidity problem I am sure they would be bought out, and life would just carry on.

 

I don't think Ukio are at any risk of insolvency based on their latest figures. In the hypothetical scenario where they didn't exist, however, UBIG and HMFC would have to negotiate a position with another bank to fund overdraft facilities etc. Now, given UBIG's supposed asset base that shouldn't be an issue. However, the bank in question would demand a lot more clarity over UBIG's books.