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Squad Stability in the Scottish Prem


Pingu

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Squad stability in football is obviously important. If you need to rebuild your squad every season, it's incredibly difficult to build momentum and make progress.

 

One (imperfect) indicator of squad stability is having players tied down on contracts for at least a couple of years. I had a look on transfermarkt to see how many players each Scot Prem team has contracted beyond the end of the 2024/25 season and it makes grim reading for some clubs.

 

A few caveats:

 

Long term contracts don't guarantee stability, but they do make it more likely.

Some of the players on long term contracts could be unwanted dead wood!

The picture can change quickly. Teams can extend contracts at any time, obviously.

Transfermarkt might not be 100% accurate.

Another obvious indicator would be the number of players on loan at each club but I haven't looked at that for this post!

 

With all that in mind....

 

Number of players with contracts expiring after summer 2025:

 

Celtic - 20

Rangers - 14

Aberdeen - 12

Hearts - 9

Hibs - 6

Livingston - 5

Kilmarnock - 3

St Mirren - 2

Ross County - 2

Dundee - 2

St Johnstone - 2

Motherwell - 0 !!

 

It's not surprising to see the uglies at the top, given their huge budgets. And Aberdeen, in particular, have some dross tied down long term. 

 

Of our players who are out of contract this year, Beni is the obvious one that needs tying down and I'd be in favour of a perm move for Vargas.

 

More than enough has been said about Shankland's contract, but we have a few other important players out of contract in 2025 that we should be trying to sort now. Clark, Kingsley, Cochrane, McKay and possibly Devlin and Atkinson spring to mind. Overall, we're not in terrible shape but would be good to get a few of that group over the line sooner, rather than later.

 

The picture looks really bleak for half the league, though.

 

 

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Wouldn't mind us looking at Spittal from Motherwell if he's out of contract soon. Always liked the look of him

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Ex member of the SaS

Said this before playing the same players means they know what each other will do during a game and is preferable to chopping and changing. The same goes for contracts, if you get good players it makes sense to keep then for longer than usual. The bigots change larger numbers due to having a much larger squad than others so id no surprise.

The fact we have 9 out of contract doesn't mean we will dump them all.

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It would explain, to some degree, the downturn in form for some teams, if there is uncertainty over contract negotiations, extension’s etc, then it could upset team cohesion by players spreading ill feelings blah blah.

       This is one of the reasons contract talks should stay secret and one of the main reasons, personally, that I hate the weedge media.

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Squad continuity is massive . Remember when Cathro brought in an entire new team ? That was a good laugh eh 

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1 hour ago, Sooks said:

Squad continuity is massive . Remember when Cathro brought in an entire new team ? That was a good laugh eh 

 

Hindsight is a hell of a thing, but as a football person, why the **** did Levein greenlight that? Fair enough, fans weren't to know that this level of upset to the squad would be detrimental, but surely Levein was long enough in the tooth to say to his inexperienced headcoach - this is a bad idea, we're not doing it, work with Robbies squad and we'll make changes in the summer...

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2 minutes ago, OTT said:

 

Hindsight is a hell of a thing, but as a football person, why the **** did Levein greenlight that? Fair enough, fans weren't to know that this level of upset to the squad would be detrimental, but surely Levein was long enough in the tooth to say to his inexperienced headcoach - this is a bad idea, we're not doing it, work with Robbies squad and we'll make changes in the summer...

Especially as Robbies squad had finished 3rd the previous season and were sitting second when he left. Its not like we were sitting bottom and we needed to overhall the squad urgently 

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No Idle Talk

It is a serious problem for most Scottish clubs. When I see one of our good players signing a two year deal, or a two year extension, I find it difficult to even get much satisfaction out of it. Because you know that after one season the clock is basically ticking and the players mind is wandering towards January and talking to other clubs with a view to signing a pre contract. It's only when a player signs a 3,4, or 5, year contract that you really have security. Not many footballers seem to want to sign those kinds of deals these days.

 

So yeah, it's hard to get stability.

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2 hours ago, Pingu said:

Squad stability in football is obviously important. If you need to rebuild your squad every season, it's incredibly difficult to build momentum and make progress.

 

One (imperfect) indicator of squad stability is having players tied down on contracts for at least a couple of years. I had a look on transfermarkt to see how many players each Scot Prem team has contracted beyond the end of the 2024/25 season and it makes grim reading for some clubs.

 

A few caveats:

 

Long term contracts don't guarantee stability, but they do make it more likely.

Some of the players on long term contracts could be unwanted dead wood!

The picture can change quickly. Teams can extend contracts at any time, obviously.

Transfermarkt might not be 100% accurate.

Another obvious indicator would be the number of players on loan at each club but I haven't looked at that for this post!

 

With all that in mind....

 

Number of players with contracts expiring after summer 2025:

 

Celtic - 20

Rangers - 14

Aberdeen - 12

Hearts - 9

Hibs - 6

Livingston - 5

Kilmarnock - 3

St Mirren - 2

Ross County - 2

Dundee - 2

St Johnstone - 2

Motherwell - 0 !!

 

It's not surprising to see the uglies at the top, given their huge budgets. And Aberdeen, in particular, have some dross tied down long term. 

 

Of our players who are out of contract this year, Beni is the obvious one that needs tying down and I'd be in favour of a perm move for Vargas.

 

More than enough has been said about Shankland's contract, but we have a few other important players out of contract in 2025 that we should be trying to sort now. Clark, Kingsley, Cochrane, McKay and possibly Devlin and Atkinson spring to mind. Overall, we're not in terrible shape but would be good to get a few of that group over the line sooner, rather than later.

 

The picture looks really bleak for half the league, though.

 

 

Motherwell!!!

 

Like you say there are caveats here. Aberdeen had a HUGE turnover last summer so it stands to reason of the 14/15 they signed, there plenty on contract. And how many have been succesful?

 

Theres also a growing trend you sign a new deal in your last year. The situation we had with Kye for example is very rare these days.

 

Really interesting tho, appreciate the OP mate

 

Hearts have talked about 10% squad turnover which i think feels about right.

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i wish jj was my dad
43 minutes ago, OTT said:

 

Hindsight is a hell of a thing, but as a football person, why the **** did Levein greenlight that? Fair enough, fans weren't to know that this level of upset to the squad would be detrimental, but surely Levein was long enough in the tooth to say to his inexperienced headcoach - this is a bad idea, we're not doing it, work with Robbies squad and we'll make changes in the summer...

Maybe he was trying to support the head coach rather than interfering? 

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Bull's-eye

Unfortunately finances dictate everything about recruitment and contracts.

 

Slow progression with finances is where we are, thats why the quality of player is slowly but surely improving.

 

Usual morons will bring up Levein and Cathro etc etc but the player budget then is a country mile away from what it is now.

 

Neilson punched above his weight for seasons.

 

Naisy now is punching exactly where we should be in the pecking order and long may it continue.

 

More revenue = better player.

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3 minutes ago, i wish jj was my dad said:

Maybe he was trying to support the head coach rather than interfering? 

 

I'm saying that his experience in football should have told him that was a bad idea and he should have steered him away from it. 

 

Sort of like at work when the new guy is being a ****witt. 

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i wish jj was my dad
7 minutes ago, OTT said:

 

I'm saying that his experience in football should have told him that was a bad idea and he should have steered him away from it. 

 

Sort of like at work when the new guy is being a ****witt. 

In hindsight appointing him was a disaster but at the time he had to back him.  The nonsense about backseat driver would have been even worse. It was a cock up all round and one I hope we have all learnt from. 

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Red Card Ref
2 hours ago, Hansel said:

Wouldn't mind us looking at Spittal from Motherwell if he's out of contract soon. Always liked the look of him

Yeah he looks decent. Think Dhanda might just have a higher ceiling tho. I like the look of Slattery too. He and Cammy seem to get into each other when we play. Bit of a rivalry. 

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colinmorewasgash

Even from his days at utd falkirk and partick always liked spittal as player only drawback was he always seems to score against us. Always thought he was decent and surprised he didn't play for a bigger club.

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KyleLafferty
2 minutes ago, colinmorewasgash said:

Even from his days at utd falkirk and partick always liked spittal as player only drawback was he always seems to score against us. Always thought he was decent and surprised he didn't play for a bigger club.

Motherwell fan at work was saying he’s already signed for St.mirren on pre contract. 

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Lone Striker
3 hours ago, Sooks said:

Squad continuity is massive . Remember when Cathro brought in an entire new team ? That was a good laugh eh 

Aye, and Levein continued the huge turnover too.   Thankfully, Naisy seems fully aware of the need to concentrate on quality instead of quantity and the importance of trying to hang on to the best players.

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3 hours ago, Sooks said:

Squad continuity is massive . Remember when Cathro brought in an entire new team ? That was a good laugh eh 

 

2 hours ago, OTT said:

 

Hindsight is a hell of a thing, but as a football person, why the **** did Levein greenlight that? Fair enough, fans weren't to know that this level of upset to the squad would be detrimental, but surely Levein was long enough in the tooth to say to his inexperienced headcoach - this is a bad idea, we're not doing it, work with Robbies squad and we'll make changes in the summer...

It was complete arrogance and snobbery from the two of them imo

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JamboJoker98
2 hours ago, OTT said:

 

Hindsight is a hell of a thing, but as a football person, why the **** did Levein greenlight that? Fair enough, fans weren't to know that this level of upset to the squad would be detrimental, but surely Levein was long enough in the tooth to say to his inexperienced headcoach - this is a bad idea, we're not doing it, work with Robbies squad and we'll make changes in the summer...

 

Because Cathro was an extension of Levein. He was desperate for Cathro to succeed so he could be seen to succeed. Something I think Savage deserves credit for, and reflective in the topic of the thread, is that he's maintaining that boundary and maintaining those gaurdrails that stops the revolving door and leaves the club a decent to good level of core players that we can build upon.

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Makes a huge difference when we are only focussing on 2 or 3 key signings per window rather than wholesale upheavals.  The recruitment team can focus their resources on a few key priorities, rather than spread those resources more thinly looking for 8 or 9 new players.

 

Also, for new players it must be easier for a few new arrivals to settle into a team that is already fairly settled, rather than a whole bunch of new signings coming into a much less settled team environment.

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jamboinglasgow
4 hours ago, RobNox said:

Makes a huge difference when we are only focussing on 2 or 3 key signings per window rather than wholesale upheavals.  The recruitment team can focus their resources on a few key priorities, rather than spread those resources more thinly looking for 8 or 9 new players.

 

Also, for new players it must be easier for a few new arrivals to settle into a team that is already fairly settled, rather than a whole bunch of new signings coming into a much less settled team environment.

 

100%

 

This season we have signed 9 players in total across two transfer windows (that includes a player we signed on loan who went back due to illness, meaning another signing needed as replacement.) In the Summer and February transfer windows we have released, sold, returned back at the end of loan or sent out on loan 16 first team players. So our squad has been reduced in size by 7 players over those two windows. However I do think it has been a much needed reduction in size.

 

Having only a few players changed over every season does mean things are much more stable and can mean that we can as you say put more resources on fewer players. Even have a main core of players makes a big difference. Aberdeen under McInnes were helped by most rivals being in flux or relegated, but they also have a core of players who played for quite a few seasons until they were too old. The problem Aberdeen had was bringing in new players which most of time did not work out, so the core players made a massive part.

 

As you say having new players come into this environment means its easier. I can see where Naismith comes from where he talks about ideally a new signing would be low key for six months, give them time to adapt. If the team is settled and capable, then you dont need to worry for them to be thrown in at the deep end because the club needs them to play due to constant change in players. 

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What's been striking for me is how we're able to bring players on who're as good as the players they're replacing.

 

Probably a major factor in us winning games late on. 

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King prawn
20 hours ago, Red Card Ref said:

Yeah he looks decent. Think Dhanda might just have a higher ceiling tho. I like the look of Slattery too. He and Cammy seem to get into each other when we play. Bit of a rivalry. 

Slattery hasn’t done anything of note as far as I can remember, apart from

being easily wound up by Devlin. Spittal looks decent from the highlights and games I’ve seen him in 

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1 hour ago, Craig_ said:

What's been striking for me is how we're able to bring players on who're as good as the players they're replacing.

 

Probably a major factor in us winning games late on. 

 

No probably about that, Craig, you're right.

 

Our bench is almost always a very strong one which is absolutely the difference between us and the clubs below.

 

I'd still rather we started games better, mind.

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jamboinglasgow

Watching the game, it struck me how the depth in squad is real quality that will make a difference in the second half of the season.

 

Jamacian International Dexter Lembikisa was not having his greatest game, he was replaced by Australian International Nathaniel Atkinson.

 

One of our best centre backs of recent seasons Craig Halkett went off injured, he was replaced by Australian International Kye Rowles

 

Jorge Grant did well and was replaced by a player who can play the same role and quality in Scott Fraser

 

Beni went off and Tait came on who looked confident and assured in midfield.

 

We played Craig Gordon, giving a rest to Zander Clark who has been great in goals

 

Frankie Kent was on the bench and didn't play despite being one of our best players this season.

 

Cammy Devlin was on the bench and not needed to come on despite being a big player for us last few seasons.

 

Yutaro Oda wasn't on the bench, who though can be hot and cold has produced some performances for us.

 

Barrie McKay who was crucial for a creative side last few seasons has not been missed with injury, same with Boyce.

 

I could go on, but to me the fact we have this depth of players who can fit into the squad and are ready made replacements for others is very underrated. Naismith has done well get players who before may have been underwhelming get performances. As the season goes on other teams will tire with their best players. Obviously the exception is Shankland as he is not interchangeable.

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