david mcgee Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Our reliance on the financial sector and tourism is about to bite our butts. I spoke to a business man from one of the banks, he had just signed up to his banks rights issue. He was buying ?30,000 worth of his banks shares at the issue price of ?2.00,( at that time they were ?2.60) he did not have the money to buy them. He was borrowing that from the same bank, as soon as he recieved his new shares he was going to flog them, make 60p per share and pay off the loan. Well he wont have recieved his shares yet and they are now worth ?1.50. How many other people have been as stupid? All these financial organisations are victims of there own greed and it would appear their staff share their ethos. How much longer can they continue to employ as many people when there is no money available to borrow, the phones in their mortgage departments must be silent? The building industry has collapsed, the influx of Poles has turned into an exodus, flats lie empty, nobody can afford to move. The global economy is collapsing and Tourist numbers will be well down over the next few years, at exactly the same time Edinburgh council has invested in a tram system to bring all these extra tourists into Edinburgh. The tram system is affecting business in Edinburgh right now. Even LRT is complaining they are not seeing the same ammount of passengers travelling into town, this at a time where car drivers are avoiding the City centre. We may have a sparkling new tram system in a few years time but the only people on it will be heading to the dole office to pick up their giros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Doom-monger.... You are right though. At a time when the banking sector and tourism are flying high it is great to be a City that relies on that. However when those industries start to nosedive, the city that is reliant on them will also start to ................... Not rocket science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coco Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 The other 'growth' factor in Edinburgh has been the size of Government and quasi-Government spending. Given how quickly tax receipts are drying up, next few years are going to see a squeeze there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsmak Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I heard that the Bank Of Scotland is to lay off 2000 workers in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I heard that the Bank Of Scotland is to lay off 2000 workers in the next few weeks. I presume that's across the UK. It's no great surprise really. In Dunfermline, where I used to live, I always wondered why there was a Halifax branch and a Bank of Scotland branch. It made no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 If the capitalist economy relies on boom and bust then at the moment we are in a bust situation. So, a public works project like the trams is actually very good as it will keep people employed, then as the cycle returns to boom we have a "sparkling new tram system" for the tourists to use! Easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coco Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 If the capitalist economy relies on boom and bust then at the moment we are in a bust situation. So, a public works project like the trams is actually very good as it will keep people employed, then as the cycle returns to boom we have a "sparkling new tram system" for the tourists to use! Easy! I am afraid that there are no notes to fill the buried milk bottles, nor money to pay the people to bury them. Brown has wasted so much money - which has led to ludicrous schemes like the tram line - that there is nothing left to offset the current slump. His time as the most disastrous Chancellor in modern memory is now being recognised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I P Knightley Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I am afraid that there are no notes to fill the buried milk bottles, nor money to pay the people to bury them. Brown has wasted so much money - which has led to ludicrous schemes like the tram line - that there is nothing left to offset the current slump. His time as the most disastrous Chancellor in modern memory is now being recognised. What a fine paragraph. Broon, Broon, Broon! Oot, oot, oot! What do we want? Broon oot! When do we want it? Noo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosanostra Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 This thread has made me feel sad. I'm going to look at weeteam.net to cheer myself up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footieman Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 This thread has made me feel sad. I'm going to look at weeteam.net to cheer myself up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavsy Van Gaverson Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I heard that the Bank Of Scotland is to lay off 2000 workers in the next few weeks. Not true. 650 people in 18 months. The aim is to achieve this through further redeployment, voluntary severance and normal turnover. It is due to two departments merging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Whittaker's Tache Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 My mate works for HBOS and has done for nearly 30 years Every penny he had spare over this period he's bunged into the company share scheme. Last year he was thinking about cashing in his shares as they were at ?11 odds (he has nearly six figures worth in number) but decided against it as he has 4 years till he wants to retire Last week they were worth about ?2 odds Needless to say the retirement plans are on hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Our reliance on the financial sector and tourism is about to bite our butts. Why? Our financial sector is not going to disappear and neither are the tourists. I spoke to a business man from one of the banks, he had just signed up to his banks rights issue.He was buying ?30,000 worth of his banks shares at the issue price of ?2.00,( at that time they were ?2.60) he did not have the money to buy them. He was borrowing that from the same bank, as soon as he recieved his new shares he was going to flog them, make 60p per share and pay off the loan. Well he wont have recieved his shares yet and they are now worth ?1.50. How many other people have been as stupid? All these financial organisations are victims of there own greed and it would appear their staff share their ethos. One person's stupidity doesn't make every bank worker a gullible, greedy fool. Not sure what that anecdote has to do with reliance on the financial sector biting our butts? How much longer can they continue to employ as many people when there is no money available to borrow, the phones in their mortgage departments must be silent? Will they not be offering mortgages to existing customers then? My mortgage is up for renewal in October. Does this mean there will be no-one available to give me a new rate? The building industry has collapsed, the influx of Poles has turned into an exodus, flats lie empty, nobody can afford to move. If the Poles are leaving, isn't this a good thing in that it frees up the job market even more? Correct, moving is costly, however market forces (assuming they exist) must surely result in a lowering of house prices and a resumption of trade? The global economy is collapsing and Tourist numbers will be well down over the next few years Eh...source? ....at exactly the same time Edinburgh council has invested in a tram system to bring all these extra tourists into Edinburgh. The tram system is affecting business in Edinburgh right now. Even LRT is complaining they are not seeing the same ammount of passengers travelling into town, this at a time where car drivers are avoiding the City centre. We may have a sparkling new tram system in a few years time but the only people on it will be heading to the dole office to pick up their giros. See my earlier comment re boom and bust and the possibility that by the time the trams are finished we are in a period of economic upturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Our financial sector is not going to disappear and neither are the tourists. No, but they are going to contract markedly. For a City that has so much reliance on both this will have huge negative effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 No, but they are going to contract markedly. For a City that has so much reliance on both this will have huge negative effects. There will be negative effects, but huge I doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
felix Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Edinburgh tourism is programmed to GROW by 50% over the next 7 years; not contract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david mcgee Posted July 16, 2008 Author Share Posted July 16, 2008 Edinburgh tourism is programmed to GROW by 50% over the next 7 years; not contract Somebody has programmed it? Oh well take back everything i said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambos are go! Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I am afraid that there are no notes to fill the buried milk bottles, nor money to pay the people to bury them. Brown has wasted so much money - which has led to ludicrous schemes like the tram line - that there is nothing left to offset the current slump. His time as the most disastrous Chancellor in modern memory is now being recognised.[/ Funny how Browns opponents seem to believe the more the say he's rubbish the more folk will believe it. Forgetting as Andrew Marr put it 'were all substantially better off'. People seem to reflect on that when they get to the polling booth history suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Spackler Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Fundamentally what has changed? The price of oil has gone up which has knocked the price of everything else up. People feel like they have less money. They probably have. At the same time the banks have lost a shed load of money from losses in the American "sub-prime" market collapse (ie lots of people who were only borderline capable of making payments on their mortgages defaulted and the banks lost money). The banks changed tack completely and tightended up their lending criteria. Now alot of people can't get mortgages that previously could and the housing market has slowed down severely. As far as I can tell that's it though really. Everything else is a consequence of this. I don't understand why the government doesn't correct the fuel cost situation at least at the pumps. They must be raking in a hugh amount of extra revenue from the increased oil price and could forego this. I don't know about the banks but it would seem to me they have tightened the belt so much that they are affecting the larger economy. Abrupt changes help nobody. The world will not stop turning though. There has been a very sharp change in the economy mainly because of the banks. That correction is now done. If everyone gets themselves into a downbeat state then the economy will only get worse. So Chin up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
felix Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Somebody has programmed it? Oh well take back everything i said! Read this. It'll cheer you up. http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/internet/Attachments/Internet/Business/Economic_development/ETAG_framework.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Edinburgh tourism is programmed to GROW by 50% over the next 7 years; not contract Yeah sure.............................. the banks have lost a shed load of money from losses in the American "sub-prime" market collapse No offense - but are there still people out there who actually believe this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Read this. It'll cheer you up. http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/internet/Attachments/Internet/Business/Economic_development/ETAG_framework.pdf "its ambition for 50% revenue growth by 2015." Do you have an email address please ? I want to send you a note about a lottery win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Spackler Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Yeah sure.............................. No offense - but are there still people out there who actually believe this... So what was it that caused the banks to stop lending money to each other and to punters then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 So what was it that caused the banks to stop lending money to each other and to punters then? There is a straw - that is the US sub-prime market. There is the camel - that is the UK housing market. Work it out. Houses in the UK cost too much - end of story. Now how can I collect my $1,000,000 for summing up the situation so succinctly? I could have saved so many useless so called 'journalists' so much time and effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 No, but they are going to contract markedly. For a City that has so much reliance on both this will have huge negative effects. Makes you wonder who will fill Vlads new hotel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Makes you wonder who will fill Vlads new hotel Hobos having a weekend away from their sad life........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Spackler Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Houses in the UK cost too much - end of story Rubbish. The market has only slowed down because the mortages have dried up not because the prices were too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Rubbish. The market has only slowed down because the mortages have dried up not because the prices were too high. Indeed but the demand was "artificially" created by the plentiful availability of cheap credit. 100% mortgages were commonplace for first time buyers because of the availability of credit. Now that they've gone, the first time buyer market has dried up because people have been using personal debt to fund their spending and the bottom of the pyramid has disappeared as a consequence. So now it needs people to save to obtain a mortgage but with the costs of everything spiralling, that isn't possible either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Spackler Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Indeed but the demand was "artificially" created by the plentiful availability of cheap credit. 100% mortgages were commonplace for first time buyers because of the availability of credit. Now that they've gone, the first time buyer market has dried up because people have been using personal debt to fund their spending and the bottom of the pyramid has disappeared as a consequence. So now it needs people to save to obtain a mortgage but with the costs of everything spiralling, that isn't possible either. I agree. The banks pulled the rug from under the economies feet. The correction was abrupt and has made the situation worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I agree. The banks pulled the rug from under the economies feet. The correction was abrupt and has made the situation worse. Perhaps, but they had no option. They were playing Pass the Parcel with primed Semtex which was fine when no one knew it was Semtex. When they found out it was, the game was a bogey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 Rubbish. The market has only slowed down because the mortages have dried up not because the prices were too high. Please have a think about this !! Please read up about it..... Mortgages HAVE NOT DRIED UP !!! If you are wanting to borrow 3.5 times your salary, and have a 10% deposit you can pick and choose your mortgage. Up until 5-7 years ago this would have been plenty for the average person to buy the average house. Mortgage lending HAS JUST GONE BACK TO NORMAL. The last 5 years were abnormal. I really despair sometimes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 It's carnage. Carnage, i tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Spackler Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 Please have a think about this !! Please read up about it..... Mortgages HAVE NOT DRIED UP !!! If you are wanting to borrow 3.5 times your salary, and have a 10% deposit you can pick and choose your mortgage. Up until 5-7 years ago this would have been plenty for the average person to buy the average house. Mortgage lending HAS JUST GONE BACK TO NORMAL. The last 5 years were abnormal. I really despair sometimes.. I know this fine well. I have a larger mortgage agreed with the bank at the moment, I haven't got a problem (yet). The MORTGAGES HAVE DRIED UP (since we like to despair and use capital letters) for a large number of the first time buyers who would to buy my flat currently on the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upthehill Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 It could be worse, we could be Aberdeen... That city is about to go bankrupt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 The MORTGAGES HAVE DRIED UP (since we like to despair and use capital letters) for a large number of the first time buyers No they haven't, they are still there. However what they are willing to lend and under what circumstances is what has changed. Reasonable multiple of salary and decent deposit is now required, as it should be. So either one of the following will happen: (A) House prices come down to a level where sensible 3.5 times mortgages will cover them ( Banks decide to go back to lending silly money to people that cant actually afford it. Chances of ( happening is slim to none. So that just leaves Option (A).... The days of 125% mortgages and 8 times lending are gone for at least 5 years, probably more. If you are trying to sell your place price it a good bit under what everyone else is going for. You will sell it. Otherwise you will end up chasing the market down with the rest of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Spackler Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 No they haven't, they are still there. However what they are willing to lend and under what circumstances is what has changed. Reasonable multiple of salary and decent deposit is now required, as it should be. So either one of the following will happen: (A) House prices come down to a level where sensible 3.5 times mortgages will cover them ( Banks decide to go back to lending silly money to people that cant actually afford it. Chances of ( happening is slim to none. So that just leaves Option (A).... The days of 125% mortgages and 8 times lending are gone for at least 5 years, probably more. If you are trying to sell your place price it a good bit under what everyone else is going for. You will sell it. Otherwise you will end up chasing the market down with the rest of them. Do you actually read other people's posts before responding? I have never asserted that the mortgages have COMPLETELY dried up but they have dried up sufficently to be the source of the market's problems. A point of view which you would now appear to agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 Do you actually read other people's posts before responding? I have never asserted that the mortgages have COMPLETELY dried up but they have dried up sufficently to be the source of the market's problems. A point of view which you would now appear to agree with. The markets only problem is that prices are too high. I wouldn't call mortgages getting back to normal levels 'drying up' - would you ? Anyway we agree on the main part. I just think you need to realise that all this talk of 'the markets getting back to normal' is just vested interest spin. They are back to normal. That is the 'problem'. Now we just need house prices to get back to 'normal' and hey presto - everything is....well..........normal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footieman Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 I love this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david mcgee Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 Too bleedin optimistic as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig_ Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Can we get Coppercrutch back? Used to love reading his apocalyptic views! Surely whatever he did couldn't have been that bad?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david mcgee Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 Can we get Coppercrutch back? Used to love reading his apocalyptic views! Surely whatever he did couldn't have been that bad?! Sir Fred Goodwins hair looks suspiciously ginger. It couldnt be...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................could it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig_ Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Sir Fred Goodwins hair looks suspiciously ginger. It couldnt be...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................could it? OMG! OMG! That's like totally, mental! This site really is where it's at, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 OMG! OMG! That's like totally, mental! This site really is where it's at, isn't it? To be fair, I think his first three words would be "told you so". I thought it would be bad, but not as bad as it is transpiring. There is more to come over the next couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coco Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 Stand by my comments on Gordon Brown. What a disaster that man has been for this country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Vulture Posted February 27, 2009 Share Posted February 27, 2009 With regards to the tourism, there was a big worry here in NZ that many of the businesses that rely on tourism would find it hard. As the summer now slowly comes to an end, many of these businesses have found a new customer, basically NZers. Where as in the past they would have gone to Aussie for a holiday, the locals are staying at home and enjoying their country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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